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Last month, the U.S. shocked global trade with a 10% tariff on all imports. China was hit harder—34% overall, and up to 145% on battery products. However, it was later reduced to 30%. So far, key battery minerals like lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and copper are exempt. This is because the U.S. still depends on imports to meet clean energy targets.

In April 2025, President Donald J. Trump signed an Executive Order to investigate how relying on imported processed critical minerals could harm U.S. national security. Nonetheless, lithium is safe for now, but uncertainty is growing.

IEA has recently analyzed that new tariffs could raise EV costs, delay battery projects, and shake supply chains. If lithium is targeted, prices may spike, and the race for U.S. refining will speed up. Let’s study the case of lithium more deeply.

Lithium Prices Stabilize as Supply Overtakes Demand

After years of volatility, lithium prices have stabilized. As per the IEA’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025, last year global lithium demand rose 30% year-over-year. It reached more than 200,000 tonnes of lithium, or around 1.1 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). This was roughly equal to all lithium demand in 2018.

Lithium demand
Source: IEA

This growth was largely driven by the electric vehicle (EV) sector, while energy storage systems (ESS)—now accounting for 9% of lithium use are contributing significantly.

However, supply grew even faster, jumping by over 35%. This oversupply pushed lithium prices down to around USD 12,000 per tonne of LCE, a sharp decline from the record highs of 2022.

Economic uncertainty and weaker consumer confidence in the U.S. could also reduce EV purchases, hitting lithium, cobalt, graphite, and copper demand. Large-scale supply projects, particularly for capital-heavy minerals like copper, may stall or face delays, impacting future availability.

China Remains the Demand Giant

According to the EU’s Raw Materials Information System (RMIS), China consumed over 75% of global lithium in 2024 due to its stronghold in battery manufacturing. South Korea and Japan followed, owing to their significant battery cathode production capacity.

The rise of LFP (lithium iron phosphate) batteries in EVs channeled most demand toward lithium carbonate, while lithium hydroxide, used in nickel-rich batteries, experienced slower growth.

However, RMIS has a different prediction. It reveals that demand for most battery materials will likely exceed supply after 2029–2030, except for graphite, because of China’s rapid growth in synthetic graphite production.

Lithium demand is rising fast. However, without major new investments, shortages could hit lithium markets between 2030 and 2040.

Forecast of global Supply-Demand Balance for Lithium

lithium supply demand
Source: RMIS

Cost Relief for Battery Makers

The dip in prices brought welcome savings. IEA highlighted that in 2022, the lithium cost in a typical 57 kWh EV battery was USD 67. By 2024, that figure dropped to just USD 15, easing the pressure on EV manufacturers.

Industry Shakeups: Mergers, Closures, and New Players

IEA also analyzed how the low-price environment triggered a major industry consolidation. For instance, Rio Tinto acquired Arcadium Lithium, a company formed from the merger of Livent and Allkem.

At the same time, mine closures and project cancellations occurred. Several Australian operations shut down, and projects in the U.S., like Rhyolite Ridge, were scrapped due to poor economics.

Yet, new production hubs emerged:

  • Africa saw a fivefold jump in lithium supply, contributing 30% of new output, especially from Zimbabwe and Namibia, up from just 6% in 2023.

  • Latin America recorded a 65% increase, led by Argentina and Brazil. One highlight was Eramet’s Centenario project in Argentina, which began small-scale production using direct lithium extraction (DLE)—a promising new method for tapping brine resources.

Lithium Prices in 2025: Volatility Ahead

Analysts at Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) expect lithium prices to remain volatile throughout 2025. Projections for battery-grade lithium carbonate range between USD 9,000 and USD 12,000 per tonne, depending on how supply keeps pace with growing EV and ESS demand.

Here’s the latest lithium price trend prevailing between April and May.

lithium prices
Source: SMM

Lithium hydroxide is also expected to rise in price, driven by the shift toward high-performance battery chemistries.

The post Lithium Supply Outpaces Demand—for Now: What’s Ahead? appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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How to improve Scope 3 data accuracy for CSRD

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For most businesses, the emissions that matter most sit outside their own walls. Scope 3 emissions, everything generated across your value chain, from the suppliers who make your inputs to the customers who use your products, typically make up the majority of a company’s total carbon footprint. Under the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), those value-chain emissions now have to be measured and disclosed with a rigour that spend-based estimates alone struggle to satisfy. This guide sets out how to improve Scope 3 data accuracy for CSRD: the calculation methods open to you, how to move from estimates to verified supplier data, and how to govern that data so it holds up to audit.

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How community stewardship makes carbon credits durable

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A carbon credit is a commitment that extends well into the future. The tonne of CO₂ compensated for today from a nature-based carbon project must remain out of the atmosphere for good, which means the forest behind the credit has to remain standing long after the transaction is complete. For any buyer, this raises a defining question: What ensures that the forest endures?

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Why Conventional Carbon Offsets Are Losing Boardroom Credibility

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What replaced the cheap REDD credit on the boardroom slide deck, and why procurement is leading the rewrite.

Three years ago, a corporate slide showing a portfolio of cheap REDD+ credits could carry a board meeting. The number was big, the price was low, and the press release wrote itself. Today, that same slide gets sent back with questions. The questions are uncomfortable, the answers are unclear, and your general counsel is suddenly in the room.

Conventional carbon offsets are not dead. The voluntary carbon market retired 202 million tonnes in 2025, and the Morgan Stanley Institute for Sustainable Investing survey published in January 2026 confirmed that interest from corporate buyers remains substantial. What changed is the credibility threshold. The integrity floor has risen, the disclosure scrutiny has tightened, and the buyer profile has shifted. This article tracks what changed, what sophisticated buyers now ask before signing, and what serious corporates are putting on the board slide instead.

What boards used to buy, and why it stopped working

The 2020 to 2022 model was simple: buy a large tranche of avoidance credits at low single-digit prices, retire them against the company footprint, announce the carbon-neutral claim, and move on. Most of those credits came from REDD+ projects, renewable energy installations in countries where the renewable energy was already economic, or methane projects with thin documentation.

Several things broke that model. Academic research published in 2023, including a widely cited Science paper, found that the majority of REDD+ credits issued under the most common methodologies did not represent additional reductions when tested against rigorous counterfactuals. The Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative published its Claims Code of Practice, which sets requirements for what companies can credibly claim from credit use. The European Union finalised its Green Claims Directive, restricting how companies can describe products as climate-neutral. France’s Décret 2022-539 already restricts carbon neutrality advertising. California’s AB 1305 imposes disclosure requirements on any company making net-zero or carbon-neutral claims while doing business in the state.

The collective effect: the cheap credit no longer buys the announcement, and the announcement now carries litigation risk.

The integrity reset: ICVCM, VCMI, and what changed

The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market published the Core Carbon Principles in 2023 and began assessing methodologies against them in 2024. The first methodologies received the CCP label later that year. The point of the label is to give corporate buyers a defensible quality screen they can cite in disclosure.

The Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative complements this on the demand side. Its Claims Code of Practice defines what a buyer can say (Silver, Gold, or Platinum claims, with associated requirements) based on the quality of credits used and the underlying decarbonisation strategy. Together, CCP and VCMI build a quality stack: CCP on the supply, VCMI on the claim, with the science-based target sitting underneath both.

The reset is not a ban on offsets. It is a ratchet. Credits that meet the new bar continue to clear; credits that do not, do not. The Morgan Stanley survey found that 61% of current buyers like the CCP label concept but that supply of labelled credits remains limited. That supply constraint is now visible in pricing.

What sophisticated buyers ask before they sign

The questions on the procurement scorecard have changed. A 2022 buyer might have asked about price, vintage, and project type. A 2026 buyer asks five different questions before any of those.

  • What does the counterfactual look like, and who validated it.
  • What is the permanence regime, and what is the buffer pool exposure.
  • What is the leakage risk, and how is it mitigated.
  • What rating has the project received from the independent ratings agencies (Sylvera, BeZero, Calyx Global), and what was the rationale.
  • What is the documentation discipline that survives an audit four years from now when the procurement team that signed the contract has moved on.

If the vendor cannot answer those five questions on a first call, the conversation ends. Conversely, if the vendor can answer them with documented specificity, the conversation often expands beyond a single transaction toward a multi-year engagement.

Where this leaves your near-term commitments

You probably have near-term commitments that pre-date the integrity reset. Public targets to be carbon neutral by 2025 or 2030. Product-level claims that ran in last year’s marketing. Disclosed reduction trajectories that assumed continued access to cheap credits.

You have three workable paths. The first is to re-baseline your strategy, replacing the most exposed credits with higher-quality alternatives and adjusting the public language to match what you can defend. The second is to shift the underlying spend from offsetting outside your value chain to investing inside your value chain, where reductions count against Scope 3 directly and the audit trail is cleaner. The third is to keep the strategy and absorb the risk, which is increasingly the most expensive option once you price in litigation, restatement, and reputational exposure.

Most serious buyers are choosing the second path. It moves the carbon spend from a compliance cost to a procurement and resilience investment, and it removes the central failure point of the legacy model: the disconnect between where the emissions occurred and where the reductions sat. Nature-based supply chain investments, structured under the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard and aligned to the SBTi FLAG Guidance, are the asset class that fits this brief. They generate inventory-grade reductions, they produce audit-grade documentation, and they survive the new claim restrictions because the carbon math sits inside the value chain that the disclosure already covers.

If you are reassessing a carbon strategy under the new integrity bar, or rebuilding a board narrative that has to survive a more skeptical audience, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help. The Dual-Value Model gives you a defensible alternative to legacy offset purchases, with the documentation and operational integration that survives the procurement scorecard and the audit. Schedule a consultation.

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