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Lithium Prices, What Factors Affect Them

Lithium, a crucial element in energy storage, holds immense significance in powering various industries. With metal prices soaring, the demand for lithium has surged over recent years. 

This article delves into the intricate world of lithium dynamics, exploring the factors influencing lithium prices, recent trends, and future projections.

Key Factors Impacting Lithium Prices 

Supply and Demand

Global production of lithium has seen a remarkable increase. In 2020, the total demand for lithium worldwide was 292 thousand metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent. 

Forecasts indicate a substantial rise to over 2.1 million metric tons by 2030, highlighting the industry’s exponential growth. This surge is primarily due to the rising battery demand for electric vehicles, which is expected to reach 3.8 million tons by 2035.

lithium demand projection 2030
Source: The World Economic Forum

Data from the US Geological Survey shows that global lithium production reached 180,000 metric tons in 2021, with about 90% coming from just three countries.

Market Demand

Despite robust demand for lithium, growth experienced a decline year-on-year in 2023 due to economic slowdowns, particularly affecting the electric vehicle market in China. Additionally, accelerated capacity expansions led to an oversupply situation. These fluctuations underscore the delicate balance between supply and demand that significantly impacts lithium prices globally.

Economic Factors

Economic factors such as inflation rates and currency fluctuations also influence lithium prices considerably. These macroeconomic indicators directly impact production costs and subsequently affect pricing strategies within the lithium market.

Major Trends in Lithium Pricing

Recent Price Trends

Lithium prices have recently experienced a notable downward trajectory. As of December 18, prices plummeted by 80% within a year, and as of May 7, CIF North Asia price at $14,600/t. This decline has sparked discussions about the sustainability of this trend. 

lithium prices april 2024

Expert insights suggest that low prices may lead to reduced supply and hesitant new investments amidst strong demand and cautious predictions.

Effect on the EV Sector

The lithium price drop has a significant impact on the EV sector. Reduced input costs present opportunities for manufacturers to recalibrate pricing strategies, potentially driving down EV costs and increasing consumer adoption rates. This shift highlights the interconnected nature of commodity pricing and its far-reaching consequences on diverse industries.

What’s the Future of Lithium Prices?

As the lithium market navigates significant fluctuations, industry experts provide valuable insights into future price trajectories. By examining expert predictions and analyzing market opportunities and challenges, stakeholders can comprehensively understand the dynamic landscape ahead.

In a recent interview, industry analyst Joe Lowry predicts that the lithium chemical supply is nearing equilibrium, with prices expected to rise by mid-2024 as inventories rebuild in key markets like China. Similarly, Andy Leyland emphasizes that the lithium market’s balance is delicate and that a projected surplus of 24,000 tonnes LCE in 2024 could quickly change due to market dynamics. 

Staying informed about lithium carbonate and hydroxide prices is crucial for industry participants to capitalize on opportunities and navigate challenges. Monitoring real-time lithium prices and commodity trends provides invaluable insights for strategic positioning amidst market uncertainty.

The post Lithium Prices Today: What Are the Factors That Affect Them? appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets

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The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.

The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.

This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.

The two definitions, in plain English

Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.

Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.

The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.

What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says

The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).

For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.

For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.

A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.

When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)

Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:

  • The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
  • The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
  • The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
  • It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.

The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.

When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.

The procurement and supplier engagement question

Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.

To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.

The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.

Choosing the right tool for the right target

A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.

The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.

If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.

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Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide

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Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.

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Carbon Footprint

Deforestation in Malawi: causes and solutions

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Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?

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