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The U.S. is moving closer to adopting a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)—a policy that could both strengthen domestic industry and reduce global pollution. CBAMs work by placing a fee on imported goods based on the carbon emissions released during their production. The goal is to create fair competition for U.S. manufacturers and stop companies from moving to countries with weaker climate rules.

Carbon Border Adjustment: A New Tool to Boost Industry and Cut Emissions

Unlike a traditional carbon tax, a CBAM is applied at the border. Specifically, it targets carbon-intensive imports such as aluminum, steel, cement, paper, and fertilizers.

  • According to Harvard Belfer Center’s new study titled “The Revenue Potential and Country Exposure of a U.S. Border Carbon Adjustment”, pairing this mechanism with a domestic carbon price could unlock up to $200 billion in revenue over five years.

However, this upper limit assumes no retaliation or trade adjustment from other countries—something experts say is unlikely. Still, even under conservative models, the numbers are promising.

Bipartisan Momentum Grows for U.S. CBAM

In recent months, interest in a U.S. CBAM has grown fast, especially after the European Union launched its own version in October 2023. The EU CBAM has already pushed countries like Brazil, Türkiye, and Indonesia to consider their carbon pricing policies, hoping to avoid losing export revenue to border fees. Now, the U.S. sees a chance to catch up—and capitalize.

Currently, several CBAM-related bills are circulating in Congress:

  • The Clean Competition Act (CCA), backed by Democrats

  • The Foreign Pollution Fee Act (FPFA), introduced by Republicans

  • The Market Choice Act (MCA), which combines carbon pricing with border adjustments

According to a new study from Harvard’s Belfer Center, the FPFA could raise as much as $198.1 billion over five years. Meanwhile, the CCA has a lower estimated revenue potential—between $3.2 billion and $85.5 billion—depending on its scope and the carbon price applied.

US cbam emissions
Source: Harvard Report: The Revenue Potential and Country Exposure of a U.S. Border Carbon Adjustment

Importantly, these projections do not yet account for changes in trade behavior, which could lower actual collections. Nonetheless, the outlook remains strong. In fact, support for CBAMs is bipartisan and widespread. Polls show that once voters understand the concept, around 75% support the policy, including in states reliant on heavy industry and fossil fuels.

Why a Carbon Border Fee Makes Economic Sense

The U.S. industrial sector contributes about a quarter of global CO₂ emissions. However, U.S. goods are on average 40% more carbon-efficient than those made elsewhere. This gives the U.S. a clear advantage in a world where emissions carry a cost.

For instance:

  • U.S. paper products are less carbon-intensive than 86% of imports

  • U.S. fertilizers are 79% cleaner

  • Aluminum: 80% cleaner than imports

  • Cement: 72% cleaner

  • Glass: 66% cleaner

  • Iron and steel: 60% cleaner

U.S. Carbon Intensity Relative to U.S. Imports

US carbon intensity CBAM
Source: Harvard Report, The Revenue Potential and Country Exposure of a U.S. Border Carbon Adjustment

Because of this advantage, a well-designed CBAM could boost U.S. competitiveness. By placing a fee on dirtier imports, the policy would create a fairer market and drive global demand for cleaner American goods. Analysts argue it could also reduce the U.S. trade deficit and promote clean manufacturing simultaneously.

In addition, a CBAM would prevent companies from offshoring production to nations with weaker environmental rules. This would curb the problem of carbon leakage.

Crucially, by targeting polluting imports from countries like China and Russia, the CBAM would reduce their unfair edge and encourage cleaner production globally.

Winners, Losers, and Global Trade Impact

The Belfer Center study also identifies the countries most exposed to a U.S. CBAM. Mexico, China, Brazil, and India top the list, due to their high export volumes and greater emissions intensity.

Canada, on the other hand, currently escapes most of the impact thanks to its carbon price of around $59 per ton in 2024.

However, this could change. In March 2025, Canada announced plans to remove the requirement for provinces to maintain consumer-facing carbon pricing. If Canada drops its domestic carbon price altogether, it would no longer be exempt from U.S. CBAM charges. In such a case, Canada could owe up to $2.7 billion annually under a $55/ton CBAM scenario, making it the hardest-hit exporter, even ahead of Mexico.

To assess trade exposure, the study groups countries into five categories:

  1. Fossil Fuel Heavyweights – Exporters with over $100 million in CBAM dues, where fossil fuels dominate

  2. Other Major Exporters – Non-fossil fuel countries with $ 100 M+ in CBAM payments

  3. Moderate Exposure – Countries owing between $10M and $100M

  4. Low Exposure – Countries owing under $10M

  5. Unaffected – Countries with strong carbon pricing and zero CBAM dues

More Revenue with a U.S. Carbon Price

Furthermore, the analysis strongly supports pairing a CBAM with a domestic carbon price. This combination would increase revenue by taxing U.S. emissions and help preserve America’s carbon efficiency advantage.

With low capital costs and innovation capacity, the U.S. is well-positioned to lead in clean tech. Several states, such as California and Washington, already have carbon pricing programs. The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) in the Northeast also covers power-sector emissions.

However, no national system is yet in place. Past efforts like the 2009 cap-and-trade bill and the 2019 Energy Innovation and Carbon Dividend Act failed to pass. But with rising global momentum and pressure from EU policies, the timing may now be right.

What’s Next for U.S. Carbon Border Policy?

Designing a successful CBAM requires answers to critical policy questions:

  • What sectors will be covered?

  • What benchmarks define carbon intensity?

  • Should least-developed countries be exempt?

  • Will foreign carbon pricing be credited?

Both the FPFA and CCA offer proposals. The FPFA, led by Senators Bill Cassidy and Lindsey Graham, simplifies the system by assigning products into emissions-based tiers. It also focuses on countering “unfair practices” from non-market economies like China.

The CCA, by contrast, is more aligned with the EU model and uses direct carbon intensity benchmarks.

Despite their differences, both bills share a key feature: they could generate more tariff revenue than all current U.S. import duties combined.

The Path Forward: Climate, Trade, and Competitiveness

The Joint Economic Committee believes that the U.S. is at a pivotal moment. And, a properly executed CBAM would help the U.S. capitalize on its clean manufacturing edge by:

  • Making domestic industries more competitive

  • Driving global demand for low-emission U.S. products

  • Strengthening international climate protections

  • Reinforcing supply chains with like-minded allies

  • Creating worldwide incentives for cleaner production

If done right, this policy will reduce carbon emissions, future-proof American manufacturing, and position clean U.S. goods as the global standard.

The post Harvard Says U.S. CBAM Could Deliver $200 Billion—and a Cleaner Future appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Carbon Footprint

Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets

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The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.

The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.

This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.

The two definitions, in plain English

Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.

Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.

The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.

What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says

The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).

For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.

For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.

A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.

When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)

Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:

  • The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
  • The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
  • The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
  • It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.

The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.

When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.

The procurement and supplier engagement question

Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.

To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.

The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.

Choosing the right tool for the right target

A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.

The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.

If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.

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Carbon Footprint

Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide

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Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.

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Carbon Footprint

Deforestation in Malawi: causes and solutions

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Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?

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