The global energy system is under pressure again. This time, the shock is not just about oil and gas. It is also about minerals that power clean energy and nuclear technologies. Media reports revealed that, according to International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol, the current crisis could soon look small compared to what lies ahead in critical minerals.

Speaking at a major industry event in Canberra, Birol warned that supply risks in minerals like uranium, copper, and battery metals could reshape global energy security. His message was clear: countries must diversify supply chains now or face deeper disruptions later.

A New Energy Shock Unfolds 

The world is already dealing with a massive energy disruption. The ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has removed the equivalent of around 10 million barrels of oil per day from global markets, according to the IEA. This supply gap has pushed countries to rethink energy security. Oil prices remain volatile, and supply routes are under strain. However, Birol stressed that the bigger challenge may not be oil at all.

Instead, the future risk lies in critical minerals. These materials are essential for clean energy systems, electric vehicles (EVs), and nuclear power. Without stable access to them, the global energy transition could slow down sharply.

The problem is concentration. Today, one country dominates the refining and processing of many key minerals. China controls more than 80% of global refining capacity for several critical materials, according to IEA estimates. This creates a major bottleneck in supply chains.

To sum up, without urgent diversification, countries could face even greater risks than today’s energy shock.

Amid these concerns, Australia is emerging as a key player. The country holds vast reserves of critical minerals and energy resources. This includes uranium, lithium, copper, and natural gas.

Australia has the world’s largest uranium reserves. It accounts for roughly one-third of the known global resources, according to data from the Minerals Council of Australia. At the same time, it ranks among the top global uranium producers, alongside Kazakhstan, Canada, and Namibia.

This puts the nation in a strong position as nuclear energy gains traction again worldwide. IEA highlighted that Australia is a reliable supplier that does not use energy exports as a geopolitical tool. This reliability is becoming more valuable as global tensions rise.

At the same time, Australia is also rich in battery minerals. It is the world’s largest producer of lithium and a major supplier of nickel and cobalt. These materials are critical for EV batteries and renewable energy storage.

The IEA expects global nuclear capacity to grow strongly through 2035. In its latest outlook, nuclear generation could rise by nearly 50% by 2040 under net-zero scenarios. This shift will significantly increase demand for uranium. According to the World Nuclear Association, uranium demand could double by 2040 if new reactors and SMRs scale up as expected.

For Australia, this presents a major export opportunity. Even though the country does not use nuclear power domestically, it plays a crucial role in supplying fuel to the global market.

One of the biggest shifts expected from this crisis is the revival of nuclear energy. Governments are now looking for stable, low-carbon energy sources that can reduce reliance on volatile fossil fuel markets.

As per WNA, in 2022, Australia produced 4087 tU of uranium, 8% of global production. Uranium comprises about 17% of the country’s energy exports in thermal terms.

Contracted Imports of Australian Uranium Oxide Concentrate – U₃O₈

LNG Demand Set to Rise

The current crisis is also boosting demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG). Damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East has disrupted supply flows, forcing countries to seek alternatives.

Australia is already one of the world’s largest LNG exporters. Projects in Western Australia and Queensland supply key markets across Asia, including Japan, South Korea, and China.

Birol said demand for Australian LNG is expected to grow further as countries look for stable suppliers. This could strengthen Australia’s role in global gas markets in the short to medium term. Similarly, Wood Mac had also projected earlier that the nation’s exports would remain steady throughout this year,

According to the International Energy Agency, global LNG demand is projected to rise by around 3–4% annually through 2030, driven by Asia’s energy needs and coal-to-gas switching.

• READ MORE: War Could Boost Carbon Credit Demand: How Middle East Energy Crisis May Reshape Climate Markets

EV Growth Drives Copper and Battery Metals

Beyond nuclear and gas, electrification is another major trend shaping demand. The global shift to EVs and renewable energy systems is accelerating the need for metals like copper, lithium, and nickel.

Copper is especially important. It is used in power grids, EV motors, and renewable energy systems. Birol emphasized that expanding electricity grids worldwide will require massive amounts of copper.

The IEA estimates that clean energy technologies could double global copper demand by 2040. Similarly, lithium demand could grow more than 40 times under aggressive climate scenarios.

As said before, Australia is well-positioned here too. It leads global lithium production and has large untapped reserves of other key minerals. This gives it a strategic advantage as countries race to secure supply chains.

Investment Trends Show Growing Interest

Recent data shows rising investment in Australia’s resource sector. Uranium exploration spending has picked up after years of decline. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, uranium exploration spending reached about $55 million in 2023. This marked the highest level in over a decade.

This increase reflects renewed interest in nuclear energy and long-term expectations of higher uranium demand. At the same time, mining companies are investing more in critical minerals projects. Governments are also stepping in with policies to support domestic processing and reduce reliance on foreign supply chains.

While the current energy crisis is serious, Birol’s warning points to a deeper challenge. The world is entering a new phase where minerals, not just fuels, will define energy security. If supply chains remain concentrated, disruptions could become more frequent and more severe. This could slow down clean energy deployment and push up costs.

Diversification is key. Countries need to invest in new mining projects, expand refining capacity, and build resilient supply networks. And Australia is likely to play a central role in this shift. Its vast resources, stable political environment, and strong export infrastructure make it a critical partner for many nations.

The global energy landscape is changing fast. Oil shocks are no longer the only concern. Critical minerals are becoming the new backbone of energy systems. As nuclear power returns, EV adoption rises, and clean energy expands, demand for these materials will surge. This creates both risks and opportunities.

The challenge now is to scale supply, diversify processing, and ensure these materials remain accessible. If not, today’s energy crisis could soon be overshadowed by a much larger minerals crunch.

• READ MORE: Australia Sets Record in Clean Energy Investment and Battery Storage in Q1 2025 

The post IEA Sounds Alarm as War Disrupts Energy Markets, Boosting Australia’s Uranium Demand appeared first on Carbon Credits.

A new agreement between Microsoft and Liferaft highlights the rapid growth of carbon removal markets. The deal covers 1 million carbon removal units or credits over 10 years, making it one of the latest long-term offtake agreements in the sector.

These agreements are important. They give developers guaranteed future demand while helping them raise capital, build projects, and scale operations. For buyers like Microsoft, they secure access to high-quality carbon removal credits in a tight market.

Phillip Goodman, Director, Carbon Removal at Microsoft, commented:

“At Microsoft, we’re pleased about the Liferaft project’s potential to pair high-quality, durable carbon removal with meaningful local benefits. Liferaft has strong plans for putting locally available biomass waste to productive use, generating local jobs, and supporting farmers and land managers. This demonstrates how carbon removal can strengthen agricultural communities, improve land outcomes, and deliver durable climate impact.”

The deal also reflects a broader shift. Companies are moving from short-term carbon offsets to long-term carbon removal contracts. These focus on physically removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and storing it for long periods.

Microsoft Expands Its Carbon Removal Playbook

Microsoft is the largest corporate buyer of carbon removal credits today. The company has rapidly scaled its purchases in recent years.

In 2025 alone, Microsoft signed agreements covering about 45 million tonnes of carbon removal. This was more than double its 2024 volume and a major jump from about 5 million tonnes in 2023.

• The company also dominates the broader market. In 2024, Microsoft accounted for about 63% of all durable carbon removal purchases, securing over 5.1 million tonnes.

Recent deals show how fast this is growing:

• 2.85 million tonnes of soil carbon removal credits with Indigo Ag over 12 years
• 2 million tonnes from afforestation projects in Africa
• 1.24 million biochar credits in one of the largest deals of its kind
• 3.6 million tonnes from a bioenergy carbon capture project in the U.S.

These numbers show a clear trend. Microsoft is using long-term contracts to build supply across multiple carbon removal pathways.

The company’s goal is ambitious. It aims to become carbon-negative by 2030 and to remove all its historical emissions by 2050. Carbon removal plays a key role in achieving this target.

• SEE MORE:
  • Microsoft’s $800M Carbon Removal Deal Sets Record in Climate Fight
  • Microsoft Buys 2 Million Tons of Carbon from Rubicon Carbon’s Uganda Forestry Project
  • Microsoft Buys 60,000 Soil Carbon Credits from Indigo’s Largest Carbon Crop
  • Microsoft Strikes 2 Record-Breaking Carbon Credit Deals

Why Biochar Is Dominating Early Carbon Markets

Biochar is produced by heating organic materials like agricultural waste in low-oxygen conditions. This process locks carbon into a stable solid form that can be stored in soil for hundreds to thousands of years.

It is considered one of the most practical carbon removal methods available today. Moreover, it is relatively low-cost compared to technologies like direct air capture. It can also scale faster because it uses existing biomass waste.

Biochar already plays a major role in the market. In 2024–2025, it accounted for about 86% of global carbon removal purchases and deliveries.

Demand is strong, but supply is limited. In 2024, biochar made up a large share of purchases, but actual issued credits remained below demand levels.

The long-term potential is also huge. Estimates suggest biochar could remove between 0.3 and 4.9 billion tonnes of CO₂ per year globally, with some studies pointing to around 3 billion tonnes annually using available biomass waste.

This makes biochar one of the most scalable carbon removal options available today.

How Offtake Deals Help Scale Carbon Removal

The Liferaft–Microsoft agreement follows a model that is becoming standard in carbon removal markets: long-term offtake contracts.

These deals serve several purposes:

• They provide price certainty for developers.
• They reduce investment risk for new projects.
• They help scale technologies that are still early-stage.

Microsoft has emphasized that early demand is critical. By committing to future purchases, companies help suppliers secure financing and expand capacity. This model is similar to how renewable energy markets grew. Long-term power purchase agreements helped scale solar and wind by guaranteeing revenue.

Now, the same model is being applied to carbon removal.

From Offsets to Permanent Carbon Removal

The carbon removal market is still small but growing fast. Demand is driven by corporate climate targets and stricter net-zero standards. Global purchases of carbon removal credits reached about 8 million tonnes in 2024, up nearly 78% from 2023.

By 2025, demand had already surged further, with tens of millions of tonnes under contract. Looking ahead, forecasts show strong growth:

• The market could reach $40 billion to $80 billion per year by 2030.
• By 2050, it could expand from $300 billion to $1.2 trillion annually.

However, supply remains a key constraint. Less than 1 million tonnes of durable carbon removal credits have been issued globally, far below demand.

This gap is pushing companies to secure long-term contracts early. It also supports higher prices for high-quality credits, especially those with long-term storage like biochar.

Carbon Removal Becomes Essential for Net Zero

Carbon removal is now seen as essential for climate goals. Reducing emissions alone is not enough. Some emissions are hard to eliminate, especially in sectors like agriculture, aviation, and heavy industry.

Carbon removal helps address these residual emissions. It removes CO₂ directly from the atmosphere and stores it in a durable way.

Experts note that carbon removal is what makes “net-zero” possible. Without it, many climate targets would be difficult to achieve at scale. This is why companies like Microsoft are investing heavily in the sector. They are building portfolios that include:

• Nature-based solutions like forests and soil,
• Engineered solutions like DAC and BECCS, and
• Hybrid approaches like biochar.

This diversified strategy reduces risk and supports multiple technologies at once.

A New Phase for Carbon Markets Emerges

The Liferaft agreement may seem small compared to Microsoft’s larger deals. But it reflects an important shift in the market.

First, it shows that demand is spreading across more suppliers. This helps build a broader and more competitive market.

Second, it highlights the growing role of biochar. As one of the most mature carbon removal methods, it is likely to remain a key part of early market growth.

Third, it reinforces the importance of long-term contracts. These agreements are becoming the main way to scale carbon removal globally.

With all these, the broader trend is clear. Carbon removal is moving from pilot projects to large-scale deployment. Companies are no longer testing the market. They are actively building it.

For now, Microsoft remains the dominant buyer. But its strategy is also creating space for others to follow. By securing supply early, the tech giant is helping to unlock a new phase of growth in climate technology.

• READ MORE: The Ultimate Guide to Biochar: The “Black Gold” Fueling Durable Carbon Removal Market

The post Microsoft Inks Biggest-Ever U.S. Biochar Deal with Liferaft appeared first on Carbon Credits.

Disseminated on behalf of Alaska Energy Metals Corporation

The global nickel market is shifting fast. Years of oversupply pushed nickel prices lower and delayed new mining investments. But recent price gains suggest the cycle may be turning. In early 2026, nickel prices jumped about 18% in a single month, highlighting how sensitive the market is to supply expectations.

For investors, this shift creates a high-risk, high-reward opportunity. Early-stage developers advancing projects today could benefit disproportionately when deficits emerge. Alaska Energy Metals Corporation (AEMC) sits at the center of this narrative, with its Nikolai Nickel Project moving toward a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) in 2026 and growing momentum in the U.S. critical minerals policy landscape.

Nickel Prices Are Rising, and the Market Is Fragile

Nickel’s recent rally reflects growing concerns about future supply. Indonesia dominates global nickel production, and any policy shift there can move prices instantly. Markets reacted strongly to speculation about Indonesian output controls, showing how fragile the supply balance remains.

Despite today’s inventories, analysts warn that the world will need massive investment to meet future demand. Estimates suggest roughly $66 billion in global nickel supply chain investment may be required to avoid shortages later this decade.

This gap creates a structural opportunity. Low prices discourage new mines today, but demand from EVs, grid storage, and stainless steel continues to rise. And companies advancing projects during the downturn could benefit when the cycle flips.

Nikolai Nickel Project: A Strategic U.S. Critical Minerals Asset

AEMC’s flagship Nikolai Nickel Project in Alaska ranks among the largest undeveloped nickel resources in the United States. The project also contains copper, cobalt, chromium, platinum, palladium, and iron, making it a polymetallic critical minerals asset.

This resource mix strengthens the investment case. Nickel and cobalt are essential for batteries. Platinum group metals support hydrogen and industrial applications. Chromium and iron add potential by-product revenue streams.

Thus, domestic critical minerals projects like Nikolai are becoming strategic priorities as governments seek to reduce reliance on foreign supply chains.

New Work Program Accelerates Path to PEA

In October 2025, AEMC closed a $1 million non-brokered private placement, issuing roughly 11.8 million units at $0.085 per unit. Each unit included one common share and one warrant exercisable until October 2030. Insider participation and no finder’s fees signaled management confidence in the project.

The company outlined a focused work program designed to move Nikolai toward economic evaluation:

• Metallurgical studies to produce concentrates
• Hydrometallurgical testing to assess on-site metal production
• Permitting for road extensions and camp upgrades
• Internal economic evaluations for a PEA
• Planning for a 2026 field program and investor outreach

These steps are critical. Metallurgy, infrastructure, and early economics determine whether large deposits can become mines.

The current share structure shows:

Hydrometallurgy, RecycLiCo, and Lucid Partnership Add Value

AEMC’s Memorandum of Understanding with RecycLiCo Battery Materials adds a downstream processing angle. RecycLiCo’s U.S. subsidiary will test whether its hydrometallurgical technology can refine metals from Nikolai ore.

Alongside, the nickel miner has also signed an MOU with Lucid Group, Inc (NASDAQ: LCID), maker of the world’s most advanced electric vehicles.

AEMC confirmed hydrometallurgical studies as part of its development plan. On-site refining could reduce reliance on foreign smelters, improve margins, and strengthen U.S. supply chain security.

Integrated mining and refining projects often command premium valuations. They also attract government support and strategic partnerships.

Trump-Era Critical Minerals Push Boosts Domestic Projects

U.S. policy momentum around critical minerals accelerated during former President Donald Trump’s administration and continues to influence today’s strategy. Trump’s executive orders declared critical minerals a national security priority and directed federal agencies to support domestic mining, processing, and recycling.

This policy shift led to:

• Funding programs under the Defense Production Act
• Streamlined permitting initiatives
• Federal grants for mining, processing, and battery supply chains
• Public-private partnerships for domestic critical minerals

These initiatives laid the foundation for today’s expanded funding and permitting reforms. Projects like Nikolai align directly with this policy framework, positioning AEMC to benefit from federal incentives, grants, and offtake partnerships.

• ALSO READ: AEMC’s Nikolai: America’s Answer to Indonesia’s Nickel Crunch 

FAST-41 and Government Engagement Reduce Risk

Nikolai is listed on the U.S. Permitting Council’s FAST-41 Transparency Dashboard. FAST-41 aims to accelerate permitting and improve coordination across federal agencies.

AEMC has also reported ongoing engagement with U.S. government departments regarding Nikolai’s role in domestic supply chains. This alignment matters for investors. Government backing can reduce permitting risk, unlock funding, and attract strategic partners.

Emily Domenech, Permitting Council Executive Director.

“I am excited to welcome the Nikolai Nickel project to the FAST-41 program. We are proud to support more mining projects that will strengthen the U.S. economy and reduce our reliance on foreign nations. I look forward to working with the Alaska Energy Metals Development Corporation to provide a transparent and predictable federal permitting process while achieving President Trump’s vision for American energy dominance.”

2026 PEA: A Major Valuation Catalyst

AEMC has initiated internal scoping studies to evaluate mining rates, sequencing, and economics. Early plans focus on extracting higher-grade near-surface zones first to improve project economics.

The Preliminary Economic Assessment is a major milestone. It converts geological resources into financial metrics like net present value and internal rate of return. Mining equities often re-rate significantly after a credible PEA.

With a PEA targeted for 2026, AEMC could hit this milestone as nickel markets tighten—a powerful combination for valuation.

Valuation Leverage to Nickel Prices

Junior miners offer strong leverage to commodity prices. A 10–20% increase in nickel prices can dramatically improve project economics for bulk tonnage deposits. The recent 18% monthly nickel rally highlights how quickly sentiment can change. If prices stabilize near $18,000–$20,000 per tonne, project valuations could rise sharply.

Key upside catalysts include:

• Sustained nickel price recovery
• Positive metallurgical and hydromet results
• Completion of the PEA
• Permitting and infrastructure progress
• Government funding or strategic partnerships

Each milestone reduces risk and increases valuation multiples.

Macro Tailwinds: EVs, Grid Storage, and Infrastructure

Nickel remains critical for high-energy-density batteries used in premium EVs and heavy-duty applications. Even as lithium iron phosphate batteries grow, nickel-rich chemistries dominate performance segments.

Stainless steel demand also continues to grow with global infrastructure and urbanization. Combined demand growth will strain supply, especially as Indonesian ore grades decline and regulatory pressures increase.

Western governments are pushing to localize critical minerals supply chains. This macro backdrop supports long-term bullish scenarios for domestic nickel developers.

M&A and Strategic Optionality

Large miners, automakers, and battery manufacturers increasingly seek secure North American supply. Nikolai’s scale, polymetallic (high-grade Ni-Cu-PGE massive sulphide mineralization) profile, and location make it a potential joint venture or acquisition target.

Downstream processing partnerships further increase strategic value. Domestic refining capability could attract OEMs, defense contractors, and federal agencies seeking supply security.

This optionality adds upside beyond commodity price appreciation.

Investment Outlook: From Oversupply to Opportunity

The nickel market’s surplus today hides a structural supply challenge. Massive investment is needed to meet electrification demand, yet low prices discourage new projects. This disconnect creates asymmetric opportunities for developers advancing projects during downturns.

AEMC’s Nikolai Nickel Project sits at the intersection of rising demand, domestic supply chain policy, and improving market sentiment. The company has secured financing, launched metallurgical and hydromet studies, engaged government stakeholders, and targeted a 2026 PEA.

Trump-era critical minerals policies and ongoing federal funding programs further strengthen the domestic mining investment thesis. If nickel prices continue to recover and AEMC delivers on technical milestones, the company could see a significant valuation re-rating.

In a world racing to electrify and localize supply chains, domestic nickel developers are becoming strategic assets. AEMC could emerge as one of the most leveraged plays on America’s critical minerals push.

To sum up, AEMC CEO Gregory Beischer commented,

“The cost and time savings for further exploration and development once ground access is established will be quite significant. It is very encouraging to see proactive streamlining and coordination amongst permitting agencies. We are grateful to the Permitting Council for including the Nikolai Nickel project in the FAST-41 program. With Nikolai hosting six Critical Minerals – nickel, cobalt, copper, chromium, platinum and palladium, two of which, nickel and cobalt, are Defense Production Act Title III materials deemed to be in shortfall, we are extremely well aligned with the U.S. national security objective of developing long-lived, domestic sources of metals and minerals essential to the national economy and national defense. Nikolai is a project potentially capable of significantly reducing US nickel and cobalt import dependency and vulnerability.”

• MUST READ: Nickel Prices Hit $18,000 in 2026 Amid Global Oversupply, US Boosts Domestic Supply Chain
  

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The post From Oversupply to Opportunity: AEMC’s Nickel Upside in a Tightening Market appeared first on Carbon Credits.