Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Drought in southern Africa
NATIONAL DISASTERS: An ongoing extreme drought in southern Africa is threatening millions of people with hunger, Sky News reported. According to Reuters, Zimbabwe has declared the drought a national disaster. The drought has also reached crisis levels in neighbouring Zambia and Malawi, with both countries declaring national disasters, the Associated Press said. Botswana, Angola, Mozambique and Madagascar are also affected, it added.
EL-NIÑO: Dry weather conditions linked to the El Niño weather pattern have worsened the drought, which emerged in its latest phase in mid-2023, Deutsche Welle reported. El Niño reached a peak in December, according to the World Meteorological Organization, but is still expected to result in above-normal temperatures until May, the outlet added. Scientists told Sky News that El Niño could be “amplifying the existing impacts of climate change”.
CALL FOR AID: Zimbabwe president Emmerson Mnangagwa said the country needs more than $2bn in aid to feed the millions of people facing hunger, the Associated Press reported. It added that the United Nations’ World Food Programme has already rolled out a food assistance programme targeting 2.7 million people.
Electric car sales slump
POOR QUARTER: The world’s top sellers of electric vehicles (EV), Elon Musk’s Tesla and Chinese rival BYD, reported sharp falls in sales in the first financial quarter of this year, adding to “concerns over the slowing shifts towards EVs”, the Financial Times reported. It added that both carmakers have repeatedly cut prices since the start of the year in a bid to stimulate demand.
DIRE FUTURE?: Tesla’s shares fell following the news, extending their 2024 slide to 33%, the second-worst showing in the S&P 500 stock market index, Bloomberg reported. The dip in sales comes amid a “sharp deterioration in growth” for US EVs, the New York Times said. However, Musk is mulling over the possibility of building a £3bn Tesla EV factory in India, the Daily Telegraph reported.
ELECTRIC SUBSIDIES: Only seven out of 500,000 EV charging stations have been built under a $7.5bn US government subsidy programme launched in 2021 and scheduled for completion by 2030, the Independent reported. The Federal Highway Administration told the Independent that “the slow pace has been deliberate, to avoid costly mistakes while navigating a brand-new law and building a network from scratch”.
Around the world
- SEARING HEAT: India’s national weather service has forecast “hotter-than-usual” temperatures for April to June, raising the risk of water shortages and crop damages, Bloomberg reported.
- UNUSUAL FIRES: Venezuela is battling a record number of wildfires – with satellites detecting more than 30,200 fires between January and March – as a climate change-driven drought consumes the Amazon rainforest region, according to Reuters.
- CLIMATE JUSTICE: Shell began its appeal against a ruling at The Hague that compelled it to slash its emissions by 45% by 2030, relative to 2019, the Financial Times reported. A judgement is expected in the second half of this year, the paper added.
- AID BY FOSSIL: White House officials have suggested that they are open to ending president Joe Biden’s pause on approvals of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals in order to get a Ukraine aid package through Congress, Reuters reported. A White House spokesperson denied the story.
- WARNING BELLS: According to a new study reported by the Guardian, a boom in mining projects for minerals needed in renewable energy technologies is now threatening up to a third of apes in Africa.
- STANDING TALL: A new analysis found that the number of trees lost in Brazil and Colombia was down “dramatically” in 2023 – falling by 39% – largely due to changes in political leadership in these nations, according to BBC News.
57
The number of fossil fuel and cement producers responsible for 80% of the world’s CO2 emissions from 2016-2022, according to the Carbon Majors project by non-profit thinktank InfluenceMap.
Latest climate research
- A study in npj Climate Action evaluated the perceptions of climate change among a selection of academics at a local university in Cameroon and suggested a framework to support educators as they help to foster critical thinking.
- The optimal location for North American birds has shifted northward by an average rate of 1.5km each year in response to climate change, a new study in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found, representing a total distance moved of 82.5km over the past 55 years.
- A new study in Climate and Development investigated the “policy blind spots” around the contribution of women to rangeland cultivation in Tunisia and the effects of climate change on their livelihoods.
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
The UN climate change body, the UNFCCC, is largely funded by industrialised nations, such as the US, China, Japan, UK and France. However, these nations have not yet paid anything towards the UNFCCC’s core budget for this year, according to Carbon Brief analysis of UN data. This shortfall could be impacting the body’s functioning. For example, the UNFCCC recently cancelled this year’s Regional Climate Weeks, which are a “vital platform to express the concerns of people and communities most affected by climate change,” according to a comment piece by WaterAid’s Dulce Marrumbe published on Climate Home News. “The suspension of the Regional Climate Weeks is hugely disappointing news,” Marrumbe said.
Spotlight
How is Nigeria coping with extreme heat fuelled by climate change?
This week, Carbon Brief zooms in on how Nigerians are responding to the extreme heat affecting west Africa.
Since the start of this year, Africa’s most populous nation Nigeria has faced prolonged stretches of severe heat.
A recent quick-fire analysis found that the conditions in February, when temperatures exceeded 40C, were made 10 times more likely by human-caused climate change.
But the heat is still ongoing, with temperatures reaching a record 44.8C in Sokoto, a city in north-western Nigeria, on 1 April.
With comprehensive record-keeping of heat and its impacts lacking in Nigeria, Carbon Brief spoke to doctors, farmers and meteorologists about how this episode of extreme weather is affecting the country.
Health impacts
The impact of the heat is “catastrophic”, Dr Ugo Uguwanyi, a doctor in Abuja, Nigeria’s capital city, told Carbon Brief:
“Don’t even bother to step out from 10am to 6pm. And make sure you burn the diesel to power the air conditioning to be able to sleep at night.”
Information about the heatwave’s impact is limited, but this does not mean the weather conditions are not dangerous, according to the authors of the recent analysis into the role of climate change in Nigeria’s extreme heat. Rather, a lack of systematic reporting may obscure what they described as a “silent killer”.
In mid-February, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) issued a public forecast warning on the prolonged heatwave.
The agency advised citizens to stay hydrated, wear light clothing and avoid direct exposure to high temperatures during peak periods. A group of Nigerian doctors also issued safety tips.
NiMet’s director of Weather Forecast Services, Vincent Weli, had advised that a state of emergency be declared in states most affected by the heatwave and workers be allowed to take breaks between noon and 3pm. Speaking to Nigeria’s Channels Television, Weli said:
“Of course, you know, with high temperature, cognitive development will be affected and productivity will be affected. There will be a loss of concentration.”
However, no such directive has yet been issued by state governments.
Agricultural and workforce impacts
Meanwhile, in Lagos, Nigeria’s most populated city, ride-hailing drivers are operating under melting conditions, stuck between preserving their health or livelihood, according to a Rest of World report.
The heatwave is also expected to reduce agricultural productivity, a sector that contributes about 22% to Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) and accounts for more than a third of total employment.
Wasiu Adeniyi Ibrahim, a meteorologist from NiMet, told Carbon Brief:
“Heatwaves can reduce agricultural productivity by causing heat stress to crops and livestock.”
There is not a lot of data on how the current heat is affecting agriculture in Nigeria.
However, the national secretary of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria, Yunusa Halidu, told Carbon Brief that its members expect the heatwave to affect productivity yield this year. He said:
“The heat is extreme this year, although we have been expecting it, as we work with the Nigerian Meteorological Agency. We know it is global warming and we are working to see how we can mitigate the effects.”
Watch, read, listen
STRATEGIC DOMINANCE: Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden of the China-Global South Podcast interviewed automotive analyst Lei Xing on Chinese EV brands’ plans to dominate global-south car markets.
CLIMATE FUTURES: The New York Times investigated whether Guyana’s oil is a “blessing or a curse”.
CARBON POLITICS: In a new episode of Political Heat, environmental campaigner Amy Mount spoke to Prof Rebecca Willis about democracy and the challenge of responding to climate change.
Coming up
- 10 April: South Korea parliamentary elections
- 12 April: Launch of the International Energy Agency (IEA) oil market report
- 12-13 April: Second G20 environment and climate sustainability working group, Brasilia
Pick of the jobs
- Politico, sustainability editor | Salary: Unknown. Location: Brussels
- Climate Action Network International, finance and grants officer | Salary: €36,000-48,000. Location: Flexible
- International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), senior cryosphere specialist | Salary: Unknown. Location: Kathmandu, Nepal
- Business and Human Rights Resource Centre, senior researcher, just energy transition and natural resources | Salary: £37,500-40,000. Location: UK, Germany or remote
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
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The post DeBriefed 5 April 2024: Southern Africa’s drought ‘disaster’; Top electric car sales slump; Is Nigeria coping with extreme heat? appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) overtook petrol cars in the EU for the first time in December 2025, according to new figures released by industry group the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA).
The figures show that registrations of battery EVs – sometimes referred to as BEVs, or “pure EVs” – reached 217,898, up 51% year-on-year from December 2024, as shown in the chart below.
Meanwhile, sales of petrol cars in the bloc fell 19% year-on-year, from 267,834 in December 2024 to 216,492 in December 2025.
Overall in 2025, EVs reached 17.4% of the market share in the bloc, up from 13.6% the previous year.
(EVs run purely from a battery that is charged from an external source, plug-in hybrids have both a battery that can be charged and an internal combustion engine, whilst regular hybrids cannot be plugged in, they have a smaller battery that is charged from the engine or braking.)
According to ACEA, 1,880,370 new battery-electric cars were registered last year, with the four biggest markets – Germany (+43.2%), the Netherlands (+18.1%), Belgium (+12.6%), and France (+12.5%) – accounting for 62% of registrations.
In a release setting out the figures, ACEA described this as “still a level that leaves room for growth to stay on track with the transition”.
Meanwhile, registrations of petrol cars fell by 18.7% across 2025, with all major markets seeing a decrease.
France accounted for the steepest decline in petrol registrations at 32% year-on-year, followed by Germany (-21.6%), Italy (-18.2%), and Spain (-16%).
Overall, 2,880,298 new petrol cars were registered in 2025, a drop in market share from 33.3% in December 2024 to 26.6%.
Hybrid vehicles, which are entirely fuelled by petrol or diesel, remain the largest segment of the EU car market, with sales jumping 5.8% from 307,001 in December 2024 to 324,799 a year later, as shown in the chart below.
However, cars that can run on electricity – battery EVs and plug-in hybrids – are growing even faster, with sales up 51% and 36.7% in December 2025, respectively.
The registration figures follow the EU’s automotive package, released in December to “support the automotive sector’s efforts in the transition to clean mobility”.
It includes a proposed shift from banning the sale of new combustion-engine cars from 2035 to reducing their tailpipe emissions.
Under the proposals, the EU will target a 90% cut in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from 2021 levels by 2035, rather than all vehicle sales having to be zero-emissions.
If approved, the package would require that the remaining 10% of emissions be compensated through the use of low-carbon steel made in the EU or from e-fuels and biofuels.
This would allow for plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), “range extenders”, hybrids and pure internal combustion engine vehicles to “still play a role beyond 2035”.
There has been repeated pushback from the automotive sector in Europe against the introduction of “clean car rules”, which has led to targets being shifted more than once.
For example, the head of Stellantis, one of the largest car manufacturers in Europe, recently claimed that there was no “natural” demand for EVs.
Automakers have argued that EU targets for cleaner cars should be eased in the face of competition from Chinese producers and US tariffs.
ACEA figures show Volkswagen continued to claim the largest market share in the EU, accounting for 26.7% of new registrations in December, up from 25.6% a year earlier.
It was followed by Stellantis, Renault, Hyundai, Toyota and BMW.
EV giant Tesla saw its market share drop from 3.5% in December 2024 to 2.2% in December 2025. Over the course of 2025, the brand saw its market share in the EU fall 37.9% from 2024, following controversy around its owner, Elon Musk.
Meanwhile, Chinese EV brand BYD tripled its market share from 0.7% in December 2024 to 1.9% in December 2025.
The post Analysis: EVs just outsold petrol cars in EU for first time ever appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Analysis: EVs just outsold petrol cars in EU for first time ever
Al-Karim Govindji is the global head of public affairs for energy systems at DNV, an independent assurance and risk management provider, operating in more than 100 countries.
Optimism that this year may be less eventful than those that have preceded it have already been dealt a big blow – and we’re just weeks into 2026. Events in Venezuela, protests in Iran and a potential diplomatic crisis over Greenland all spell a continuation of the unpredictability that has now become the norm.
As is so often the case, it is impossible to separate energy and the industry that provides it from the geopolitical incidents shaping the future. Increasingly we hear the phrase ‘the past is a foreign country’, but for those working in oil and gas, offshore wind, and everything in between, this sentiment rings truer every day. More than 10 years on from the signing of the Paris Agreement, the sector and the world around it is unrecognisable.
The decade has, to date, been defined by a gritty reality – geopolitical friction, trade barriers and shifting domestic priorities – and amidst policy reversals in major economies, it is tempting to conclude that the transition is stalling.
Truth, however, is so often found in the numbers – and DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook 2025 should act as a tonic for those feeling downhearted about the state of play.
While the transition is becoming more fragmented and slower than required, it is being propelled by a new, powerful logic found at the intersection between national energy security and unbeatable renewable economics.
A diverging global trajectory
The transition is no longer a single, uniform movement; rather, we are seeing a widening “execution gap” between mature technologies and those still finding their feet. Driven by China’s massive industrial scaling, solar PV, onshore wind and battery storage have reached a price point where they are virtually unstoppable.
These variable renewables are projected to account for 32% of global power by 2030, surging to over half of the world’s electricity by 2040. This shift signals the end of coal and gas dominance, with the fossil fuel share of the power sector expected to collapse from 59% today to just 4% by 2060.
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Climate at Davos: Clean tech powers on despite policy wobbles
Al Gore says climate policy may be suffering “a recession” in many countries – but the energy transition continues apace, driven by falling costs for renewables and batteries -
Climate at Davos: Energy security in the geopolitical driving seat
While climate change is a lower priority for leaders at this year’s World Economic Forum, control of energy supplies and minerals is a hot topic
Conversely, technologies that require heavy subsidies or consistent long-term policy, the likes of hydrogen derivatives (ammonia and methanol), floating wind and carbon capture, are struggling to gain traction.
Our forecast for hydrogen’s share in the 2050 energy mix has been downgraded from 4.8% to 3.5% over the last three years, as large-scale commercialisation for these “hard-to-abate” solutions is pushed back into the 2040s.
Regional friction and the security paradigm
Policy volatility remains a significant risk to transition timelines across the globe, most notably in North America. Recently we have seen the US pivot its policy to favour fossil fuel promotion, something that is only likely to increase under the current administration.
Invariably this creates measurable drag, with our research suggesting the region will emit 500-1,000 Mt more CO₂ annually through 2050 than previously projected.
China, conversely, continues to shatter energy transition records, installing over half of the world’s solar and 60% of its wind capacity.
In Europe and Asia, energy policy is increasingly viewed through the lens of sovereignty; renewables are no longer just ‘green’, they are ‘domestic’, ‘indigenous’, ‘homegrown’. They offer a way to reduce reliance on volatile international fuel markets and protect industrial competitiveness.
Grids and the AI variable
As we move toward a future where electricity’s share of energy demand doubles to 43% by 2060, we are hitting a physical wall, namely the power grid.
In Europe, this ‘gridlock’ is already a much-discussed issue and without faster infrastructure expansion, wind and solar deployment will be constrained by 8% and 16% respectively by 2035.
Comment: To break its coal habit, China should look to California’s progress on batteries
This pressure is compounded by the rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI). While AI will represent only 3% of global electricity use by 2040, its concentration in North American data centres means it will consume a staggering 12% of the region’s power demand.
This localized hunger for power threatens to slow the retirement of fossil fuel plants as utilities struggle to meet surging base-load requirements.
The offshore resurgence
Despite recent headlines regarding supply chain inflation and project cancellations, the long-term outlook for offshore energy remains robust.
We anticipate a strong resurgence post-2030 as costs stabilise and supply chains mature, positioning offshore wind as a central pillar of energy-secure systems.
Governments defend clean energy transition as US snubs renewables agency
A new trend is also emerging in behind-the-meter offshore power, where hybrid floating platforms that combine wind and solar will power subsea operations and maritime hubs, effectively bypassing grid bottlenecks while decarbonising oil and gas infrastructure.
2.2C – a reality check
Global CO₂ emissions are finally expected to have peaked in 2025, but the descent will be gradual.
On our current path, the 1.5C carbon budget will be exhausted by 2029, leading the world toward 2.2C of warming by the end of the century.
Still, the transition is not failing – but it is changing shape, moving away from a policy-led “green dream” toward a market-led “industrial reality”.
For the ocean and energy sectors, the strategy for the next decade is clear. Scale the technologies that are winning today, aggressively unblock the infrastructure bottlenecks of tomorrow, and plan for a future that will, once again, look wholly different.
The post For proof of the energy transition’s resilience, look at what it’s up against appeared first on Climate Home News.
For proof of the energy transition’s resilience, look at what it’s up against
A new MIT Global Change Outlook finds current climate policies and economic indicators put the world on track for dangerous warming.
After yet another international climate summit ended last fall without binding commitments to phase out fossil fuels, a leading global climate model is offering a stark forecast for the decades ahead.
Post-COP 30 Modeling Shows World Is Far Off Track for Climate Goals
Analysis: EVs just outsold petrol cars in EU for first time ever
Analysis: EVs just outsold petrol cars in EU for first time ever
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