Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
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This week
John Kerry leaves the climate stage
STEPPING DOWN: John Kerry, the US special presidential envoy for climate, will soon leave his role in order to support Joe Biden in the US presidential election later this year, Axios reported. His retirement “comes at a time of political threat to Biden’s climate agenda, with the possibility of a second Trump presidency looming”, the Financial Times noted.
UNCERTAIN FUTURE: Kerry was “key to brokering the crucial 2015 Paris Agreement” and “worked effectively with China despite strained diplomatic ties”, BBC News reported. The New York Times said that the role of climate envoy is a “major diplomatic role that was created especially for him and…will face an uncertain future with his departure”. It added that “no successor has yet been tapped”.
Labour’s climate pledge
GREEN COMMITMENT?: Labour’s £28bn climate investment pledge “was not included in Labour’s…‘campaigning bible’”, the Daily Telegraph reported, throwing the policy “into fresh doubt”. A Labour spokesperson told the newspaper that the party is still committed to the plan despite the omission. But Labour shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves told the Times that the figure might be scaled back, “if Tory spending commitments meant there was less money to spend”.
FACING PRESSURE: Right-leaning media outlets continued to heavily criticise Labour’s climate policy this week. The Daily Telegraph characterised it as “fanciful”, while separate articles in the Sun called the plan a “massive green splurge” and said that Labour might “impose punitive green policies if they get into government”.
ECONOMIC BENEFITS: However, former Conservative MP Chris Skidmore, in an interview with Carbon Brief, said that he believes “the Labour Party’s decision to come out and say that we should be investing in green industries…is the right one”. The possible economic boost from such investment means “there’s an economic case to be won, as well as a values case, at this election”, he added.
Around the world
- DEFORESTATION SLOWING: The Amazon saw deforestation rates fall by nearly 50% in 2023 compared to the previous year, BBC News reported.
- SHELL PRESSURE: 27 investors demanded that Shell improve its environmental targets at its annual meeting, the Financial Times said. Shell will also sell its controversial Nigerian onshore oil business, although it will continue with other oil, gas and solar projects in the country, reported Bloomberg.
- EU 2040 TARGET: The EU is discussing its climate target plan for 2040, with several member states supporting a target of a 90% emissions cut relative to 1990, reported Euractiv.
- FOSSILS AT COP: Azerbaijan released details of 28-strong organising committee for the COP29 climate summit containing no women on Monday, the Guardian reported. On Friday, On Friday, Azerbaijan announced it will make changes to the committee, the Azerbaijani Press Agency reported, although did not provide any further details.
- SNOW DEFICITS: The India Meteorological Department reported “large winter snowfall deficits” in some of India’s northern states, the Third Pole said, adding that the deficits could impact “crucial water-sharing treaties” with other countries.
14.5 million
The number of additional deaths by 2050 that could occur due to the impact of climate change on extreme weather and sea levels, and rising air pollution, according to the World Economic Forum.
Latest climate research
- A new paper in Geoscience Data Journal presented the results of a citizen science project to digitise weather observations recorded in UK Met Office daily weather reports between 1861 and 1875.
- Since 1985, the Greenland ice sheet has lost more than 5,000 square kilometres in area, corresponding to more than 1,000bn tonnes of ice lost, according to a new study in Nature.
- Research in Climatic Change revealed that, following wildfires in California between 2017 and 2021, there was a significant increase in tweets linking wildfires to climate change.
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
China’s population shrunk to 1.410 billion from a high of 1.413 billion in 2021, according to data released by China’s national bureau of statistics. Should this trend continue, the ageing of China’s population could “exacerbat[e] structural imbalances” in the country’s economy and slow overall growth, according to Reuters. This could have consequences for energy consumption and, thus, emissions. However, studies disagree on the exact link between ageing and emissions reduction – for example, one study found that population ageing “negatively correlates” with carbon emission intensity, while another argued that household emissions will rise as the population ages, especially in urban areas.
Spotlight
Who is China’s new climate envoy?
This week, Carbon Brief explores what China’s new climate envoy might mean for climate diplomacy.
On 12 January, China announced that career diplomat Liu Zhenmin (pictured) will replace Xie Zhenhua as China’s new special envoy on climate change.
The move was not a complete surprise, with Bloomberg floating the possibility in October 2023.
Liu was clearly positioned as Xie’s successor at COP28. Carbon Brief heard that, in one notable moment, Xie interrupted himself during a speech to claim he was feeling tired, handing the stage to Liu to finish the speech instead.
Does Liu have climate experience?
Liu began his career in the ministry of foreign affairs, rising to vice minister. He was appointed under-secretary-general for economic and social affairs at the United Nations (UN) in 2017.
Much of Liu’s work at the UN included a “climate change and sustainable development” brief, foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told reporters on Monday. She added:
“We believe that [he] will continue stepping up dialogue and cooperation with all parties.”
Liu is familiar with climate negotiations, having attended 10 COPs. He was involved in negotiations to develop both the Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement, Bloomberg reported.
“Liu was a key driver in landing the Kyoto Protocol,” Yuan Ying, Greenpeace East Asia chief China representative, tells Carbon Brief. “That is a promising piece of experience.”
What does this mean for China’s climate policy?
Bloomberg described Liu as a “non-controversial option” – and his public statements have largely been in line with China’s official positions.
In an interview with Caijing Eleven at the COP28 climate summit, he said that countries must “balance” ambition and pragmatism and that China’s transition away from coal will be “difficult”.
“China is doing real work, especially in the rapid development of renewable energy”, he said, which will gradually replace coal.
“Developed countries still have to take the lead in making changes in order to leave more space for the economic growth of developing countries,” he added.
Nevertheless, his past comments have hinted at areas of personal interest. He wrote two articles arguing that “more must be done to ensure that investments…do not undermine our efforts to address climate change.”
He also described the circular economy as “one of [his] favourite topics during [his] tenure at the UN” during an event on the sidelines of COP28.
Will China cooperate with developed countries on climate?
Liu attended COP28 as a senior adviser to Xie, allowing him to cement relationships with his future counterparts.
He was seen by Carbon Brief in multiple meetings with the US’s John Kerry and Susan Biniaz. German climate envoy Jennifer Morgan confirmed in a COP28 side-event attended by Carbon Brief that she and Liu also held discussions.
Nevertheless, Kerry and Xie’s departure increases uncertainty around future US-China alignment, a dynamic key to breakthroughs at the COPs in Paris, Glasgow and Dubai.
Li Shuo, director of the Asia Society Policy Institute’s China Climate Hub, is not optimistic. He told Politico that “if climate change generates news on the US-China front in 2024[,] it is more likely bad news than good”.
Watch, read, listen
2024 EXPECTATIONS: Carbon Tracker outlined some of the key issues to watch in climate and energy in 2024, including India’s elections, the adoption of climate disclosure rules in the US and the development of the East African crude oil pipeline.
GIGAFACTORY TOUR: The Fully Charged Show gained rare access to one of Chinese battery manufacturer CATL’s gigafactories, taking viewers on a tour of how batteries are made.
PROBLEM-SOLVING: On the BBC Radio 4’s Start the Week, host Kirsty Wark spoke with Our World in Data’s Hannah Ritchie, Bloomberg Green’s Akshat Rathi and the British Antarctic Survey’s Michael Meredith about solutions to tackle climate change.
Coming up
- 24 January: International Energy Agency (IEA) Electricity Market report launch, Paris, France
- 25-26 January: G20 first International Financial Architecture working group meeting, Vila do Conde, Brazil
- 26 January: Tuvalu general elections
Pick of the jobs
- The Centre for Climate Reporting, junior investigations reporter | Salary: £26,000-30,000. Location: Remote
- The Wellcome Trust, policy adviser on climate and health | Salary: £53,527. Location: London
- Environmental Justice Foundation, Taiwan climate campaigner | Salary: NTD 65,000-85,000. Location: EJF Taipei office (hybrid working)
- Power Shift Africa, media and communication associate | Salary: Unknown. Location: Open to Africans of all backgrounds
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org
The post DeBriefed 19 January 2024: John Kerry retires; Uncertainty over UK Labour’s pledge; China’s new climate envoy profiled appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Climate Change
Fish Threatened By Farms and Mining Set to Be First Species Listed As Endangered in Second Trump Term
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has proposed an Endangered Species Act listing for a rare chub whose habitat has been dried up by over-pumping of groundwater that would be further stressed by proposed lithium mines.
DYER, Nev.—A century ago, Fish Lake Valley looked much more like its name than it does today.
Global yields of wheat are around 10% lower now than they would have been without the influence of climate change, according to a new study.
The research, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, looks at data on climate change and growing conditions for wheat and other major crops around the world over the past 50 years.
It comes as heat and drought have this year been putting wheat supplies at risk in key grain-producing regions, including parts of Europe, China and Russia.
The study finds that increasingly hot and dry conditions negatively impacted yields of three of the five key crops examined.
Overall, global grain yields soared during the study period due to technological advancements, improved seeds and access to synthetic fertilisers.
But these yield setbacks have “important ramifications for prices and food security”, the study authors write.
Grain impacts
Most parts of the world have experienced “significant” yield increases in staple crops since the mid-20th century.
The new study notes that, in the past 50 years, yields increased by 69-123% for the five staple crops included in the research – wheat, maize, barley, soya beans and rice.
But crop production is increasingly threatened by climate change and extreme weather. A 2021 study projected “major shifts” in global crop productivity due to climate change within the next two decades.
Earlier this year, Carbon Brief mapped out news stories of crops being destroyed around the world by heat, drought, floods and other weather extremes in 2023-24. Maize and wheat were the crops that appeared most frequently in these reports.
Hot and dry weather is currently threatening wheat crops in parts of China, the world’s largest wheat producer, Reuters reported this month.
In the UK, wheat crops are struggling amid the “driest start to spring in England for almost 70 years”, the Times recently reported. Farm groups say some crops are already failing, the Guardian said.
As a result, global wheat supplies are “tight”, according to Bloomberg, with price rises possible depending on weather conditions in parts of Europe, China and Russia.
Food security and prices
The study uses climate datasets, modelling and national crop statistics from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization to assess crop production and climate trends in key grain-producing countries over 1974-2023, including Argentina, Brazil, Canada, China, the EU, Russia and the US.
The researchers assess climate observations and then use crop models to calculate what yields would have been with and without these climate changes.
For example, “if it has warmed 1C over 50 years and the model says that 1C leads to 5% yield loss, we’d calculate that the warming trend caused a loss of 5%”, Prof David Lobell, the lead study author and a professor at Stanford University, tells Carbon Brief.
The study looks at two reanalysis climate datasets that include information on temperature and rainfall over the past 50 years: TerraClimate (TC) and ERA5-Land. (Reanalysis data combines observations with a modern forecasting model.)
The researchers find that yields of three of the five crops are lower than they would have been without warmer temperatures and other climate impacts in the past 50 years.
Yields were lower than they otherwise would have been by 12-14% for barley, 8-12% for wheat and 4% for maize.
The impacts on soya beans were less clear as there were “significant differences” between data sources. But both datasets show a negative impact on yields, ranging from 2% to 8%.
The effects on rice yields were inconclusive, with one dataset showing a positive effect of around 1% while the other showed a negative effect of about 3%.
The chart below shows the estimated yield impacts for each crop based on the calculations from the two climate datasets.
Given soaring overall crop yields during this time, impacts of 4-13% “may seem trivial”, the researchers write. But, they say, it can have “important ramifications for prices and food security” given growing food demand, noting:
“The overall picture of the past half-century is that climate trends have led to a deterioration of growing conditions for many of the main grain-producing regions of the world.”
Water stress and heat
The study also assesses the impacts that warming and vapour pressure deficit – a key driver of plant water stress – have on crop yields.
Vapour pressure deficit is the difference between the amount of water vapour in the air and the point at which water vapour in the air becomes saturated. As air becomes warmer, it can hold more water vapour.
A high deficit can reduce plant growth and increase water stress. The models show that these effects may be the main driver of losses in grain yield, with heat having a more “indirect effect”, as higher temperatures drive water stress.
The study finds that vapour pressure deficit increased in most temperate regions in the past 50 years.
The researchers compare their data to climate modelling simulations covering the past 50 years. They find largely similar results, but notice a “significant underestimation” of vapour pressure deficit increases in temperate regions in most climate models.
Many maize-growing areas in the EU, China, Argentina and much of Africa have vapour deficit trends that “exceed even the highest trend in models”, they write.
The researchers also find that most regions experienced “rapid warming” during the study period, with the average crop-growing season now warmer than more than 80% of growing seasons 50 years ago.
The findings indicate that, in some areas, “even the coolest growing season in the present day is warmer than the warmest season that would have occurred 50 years ago”.
An exception to this is in the US and Canada, they find, with most maize and soya bean crop areas in the US experiencing lower levels of warming than other parts of the world and a “slight cooling” in wheat-growing areas of the northern Great Plains and central Canada.
(The central US has experienced a cooling trend in summer daytime temperatures since the middle of the 20th century, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. There are many theories behind this “warming hole”, which has continued despite climate change.)
CO2 greening
Dr Corey Lesk, a postdoctoral researcher at Dartmouth College who studies the impacts of climate on crops, says these findings are in line with other recent estimates. He tells Carbon Brief:
“There are some uncertainties and sensitivity to model specification here – but it’s somewhat likely climate change has already reduced crop yields in the global mean.”
The study’s “main limitation” is that it is “behind” on including certain advances in understanding how soil moisture impacts crops, Lesk adds:
“Moisture changes and CO2 [carbon dioxide] effects are the largest present uncertainties in past and future crop impacts of climate change. This paper is somewhat limited in advancing understanding on those aspects, but it’s illuminating to pause and take stock.”
The research looks at whether the benefits of CO2 increases during the past 50 years exceed the negative effects of higher levels of the greenhouse gas.
Rising CO2 levels can boost plant growth in some areas in a process called “CO2 fertilisation”. However, a 2019 study found that this “global greening” could be stalled by growing water stress.
Yield losses for wheat, maize and barley “likely exceeded” any benefits of CO2 increases in the past 50 years, the study finds.
The opposite is true for soya beans and rice, they find, with a net-positive impact of more than 4% on yields.
Climate science has “done a remarkable job of anticipating global impacts on the main grains and we should continue to rely on this science to guide policy decisions”, Lobell, the lead study author, says in a press release.
He adds that there may be “blind spots” on specialised crops, such as coffee, cocoa, oranges and olives, which “don’t have as much modelling” as key commodity crops, noting:
“All these have been seeing supply challenges and price increases. These matter less for food security, but may be more eye-catching for consumers who might not otherwise care about climate change.”
The post Global wheat yields would be ‘10%’ higher without climate change appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Global wheat yields would be ‘10%’ higher without climate change
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