Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
This week
Atlantic and Amazon ‘tipping points’
CURRENT COLLAPSE?: New research found the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a large system of ocean currents that helps keep western Europe milder, “may already be on course to a tipping point”, the Press Association reported. The Associated Press said: “An abrupt shutdown of Atlantic Ocean currents that could put large parts of Europe in a deep freeze is looking a bit more likely and closer than before.”
QUESTION MARKS: The Daily Telegraph quoted Prof Jonathan Bamber, director of the Bristol Glaciology Centre, saying the new research was “entirely unrealistic for even the most extreme warming scenario over the next century”. But on the scientific blog RealClimate, ocean scientist Prof Stefan Rahmstorf noted that it was “observational data from the South Atlantic which suggest the AMOC is on tipping course” and that the model simulation was “just there to get a better understanding of which early warning signals work and why”.
AMAZON STRESS: Another study found that up to half of the Amazon is facing combined stress from rising heat, drought, deforestation and other factors that could push the rainforest towards a tipping point by 2050, Reuters reported. The research is the first to assess the cumulative impact of multiple threats, the New York Times reported. Carbon Brief also covered the findings.
‘Troika’ tout 1.5C target
COP30 COUNTDOWN: The United Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan and Brazil – hosts of the COP28, COP29 and COP30 climate summits – are teaming up to push for higher ambition towards the 1.5C limit, Al Jazeera reported. The “troika” wants countries to submit more ambitious pledges ahead of COP30 in Belem, Brazil next year, the outlet said.
MISSION 1.5C: Their efforts were mandated by the COP28 outcome, which launched an undefined “set of activities” known as “road map to mission 1.5C”. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan is on track to raise its gas output by 35% in a decade, Agence France-Presse reported.
MINISTERIAL MEETING: The International Energy Agency (IEA) held its 50th ministerial meeting this week, where leaders pledged in a communique to strengthen energy security and speed efforts towards 1.5C, Bloomberg reported. The IEA, which currently has 31 full members, also opened talks with India over joining the club, Press Trust of India reported.
Around the world
- INDONESIA ELECTS: Defence minister Prabowo Subianto, a “veteran…with a hardline military past”, will be the country’s next president, the Jakarta Post reported. He owns a coal business and “could increase deforestation and coal use”, said NPR.
- DRY JANUARY: A lack of rain in January caused Mexico’s “worst drought” for 12 years, Excélsior reported. Chile is clearing up after devastating forest fires, said El Mercurio, while Peru has issued warnings over heat stroke, El Comercio reported.
- MIGRATORY THREAT: One in five migratory species are under threat from human impacts including climate change, according to a UN report covered by BBC News.
- SAUDI TRANSITION ADMISSION: Oil giant Aramco dropped its expansion plans because of the energy transition, CNBC reported, quoting Saudi Arabia’s energy minister. The surprise move late last month had “spark[ed] questions” over the kingdom’s “concerns over the future of oil demand”, the outlet added.
- AFRICAN MYSTERY: New research casts doubt on earlier findings that Africa’s tropical ecosystems are releasing 6bn tonnes of carbon dioxide a year, Carbon Brief reported. Both sides agree on-the-ground data is needed to unravel the mystery.
- SHELL GAME: Demand for liquified natural gas (LNG) will “surge 50% by 2040” according to Shell, the Financial Times reported. The forecast, from the “world’s largest private LNG trader”, was “slightly lower” than last year, the paper said.
€881 billion
The record value of global carbon markets in 2023, according to a report from London Stock Exchange Group covered by BusinessGreen.
Latest climate research
- A new report from Climate Analytics translated the global goal of tripling renewable capacity by 2030 into regional targets and said only Asia was broadly on track.
- Research in Nature Energy explained how different types of lower-income coal, oil and gas producers can transition away from fossil fuels.
- Global warming “will lead to widespread increases in locust outbreaks”, found a study in Science Advances.
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
Only a fifth of the population of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has access to electricity, with per-capita consumption below that of an average UK fridge, reported Carbon Brief in its latest country profile. Despite using hardly any fossil fuels, the country is one of the world’s biggest greenhouse gas emitters, the profile explained, as a result of human-caused land use changes in its major forests and peatlands.
Spotlight
‘Underestimated’ global public support for climate action
This week, Carbon Brief interviews the authors of new research finding that “almost universal” global support for climate action is “systematically underestimated”.
Carbon Brief: Your survey of nearly 130,000 people in 125 countries found “almost universal” support (86%) for climate action. Were you surprised?
Prof Peter Andre, Prof Teodora Boneva, Prof Felix Chopra and Prof Armin Falk: We were indeed surprised to find that the percentage of the population approving of pro-climate social norms and demanding more political action from their national government is very high in almost all countries in our sample. We were probably misled by the same pessimism that we found to be so widespread across the globe. A broad majority of people across the globe is willing to pay a personal cost [to fight global warming]. However, in 110 out of 125 countries, the majority thinks that they are in the minority.
CB: Do you think this would hold for specific policies, such as a carbon tax?
PA, TB, FC and AF: One cannot simply equate support in the survey with support for specific policy proposals. [However], in a representative US sample, we do find that the general demand for more political action is strongly correlated with demand for specific climate policies, such as a carbon tax.
CB: There has been a resurgence of anti-climate rhetoric from politicians and the media in many countries. Do you think public opinion has shifted since your survey in 2021-22?
PA, TB, FC and AF: We do not detect any clear time trend within our samples from 2021 and 2022, but do not have data for the most recent months. If we were to speculate, we would not want to fall victim to the same pessimism one more time. Our best guess is that the support for climate action has increased rather than decreased in the last two years.
CB: You found stronger willingness to contribute among respondents in poorer, hotter and more vulnerable countries. Why do you think richer people are less willing to pay their way?
PA, TB, FC and AF: Two potential explanations come to mind. First, richer countries are still strongly dependent on fossil fuels. The mitigation costs could therefore be perceived as relatively high and the required lifestyle changes as too drastic. At the same time, richer countries may be more resilient: A country’s GDP per capita reflects its economic capacity to cope with climate change. The most direct and immediate consequences are likely to be concentrated in more vulnerable countries, which have fewer resources to mitigate the negative consequences of the climate crisis.
CB: You found people systematically underestimated the willingness of their peers to contribute to climate action. Why do you think that is – and how could it be changed?
PA, TB, FC and AF: The reasons for this perception gap are likely to be manifold. In the past, media and public discussions have given a lot of focus to the small number of climate change sceptics and have fallen prey to the efforts of special interest groups. Moreover, climate change is difficult to tackle. People might mistakenly infer that the slow progress in combating climate change is due to a widespread lack of personal commitment.
In our view, correcting this perception gap is more important than understanding its origin. Humans are (what behavioural scientists call) “conditional cooperators”. They contribute more to the public good if they believe that others contribute as well. For this reason, pessimism about others’ contributions is harmful. It can constitute a critical obstacle for climate action. We thus conclude in the paper that, “[r]ather than echoing the concerns of a vocal minority that opposes any form of climate action, we need to effectively communicate that the vast majority of people around the world are willing to act against climate change and expect their national government to act”. We hope that our study sparks a debate on this topic, and increases awareness about the large global support for climate action.
This interview was edited for length. A full transcript will be published on Carbon Brief’s website later today.
Watch, read, listen
‘UNINSURABLE WORLD’: A Financial Times “big read” looked at rising insurance premiums as extreme weather events become more frequent.
TRUMP WARNING: An election win for former US president Donald Trump would “spell disaster for climate action in Africa”, wrote Nathaniel Mong’are, adviser to the Kenyan cabinet secretary, in an article for SciDevNet.
WTF?: Popular Indian podcast WTF is? tackled climate change, interviewing researcher Prof Navroz Dubash, activist Sunita Narain and others.
Coming up
- 11-17 February: COP14 for migratory species, Samarkand, Uzbekistan
- 17-18 February: African Union summit, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
- 19 February to 1 March: Sixth UN Environment Assembly, Nairobi, Kenya
- 20 February: International Energy Agency (IEA) beyond COP28 event, Paris, France
- 21-23 February: Climate and Clean Air Conference, Nairobi, Kenya
Pick of the jobs
- Global Witness, investigator and senior investigator of climate disinformation | Salary: £44,837 and £52,494, respectively. Location: London (hybrid)
- California-China Climate Institute, University of California, Berkeley, climate policy fellow | Salary: $70,500-$86,900. Location: Berkeley, California
- Small World Consulting, sustainability consultants for carbon management and land use | Salary: £29,000-£40,000. Location: Lancaster, UK
- Common Wealth, principal or senior analyst for transatlantic energy | Salary: £43,500 for senior analyst or £50,500 for principal analyst. Location: London or US east coast
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org
The post DeBriefed 16 February 2024: Atlantic and Amazon ‘tipping points’; New ‘troika’ for 1.5C; Global support for climate action ‘underestimated’ appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Fifty-six years after the first one rallied 20 million people across America, “we need to do things that make us feel more powerful.”
From our collaborating partner Living on Earth, public radio’s environmental news magazine, an interview by host Steve Curwood with environmental historian Adam Rome.
It was the second defeat for the Trump administration’s unusual litigation to stop states from acting on climate change.
In a setback to the Trump administration’s extraordinary legal campaign against state climate action, a federal judge threw out the Justice Department’s lawsuit seeking to prevent the state of Hawaii from suing oil companies for damages.
Judge Dismisses Trump Administration’s Bid to Block Hawaii Climate Lawsuit
Climate Change
DeBriefed 17 April 2026: Fossil-fuel power slumps | ‘Super’ El Niño warning | Afghanistan’s climate struggle
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Oil prices rebound
OIL UP AGAIN: Oil prices surged by more than 7% and back above $100 a barrel on Monday after US-Iran peace talks faltered and US president Donald Trump ordered the blockading of Iranian ports, reported BBC News. The jump came after prices fell last week in the wake of the announcement of a conditional two-week ceasefire, it said.
RESCUE PLANS: European countries unveiled plans to protect citizens and businesses from rising energy prices. Ireland announced a support package worth €505m, reported BBC News, while Germany agreed on measures worth €1.6bn, said Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Reuters reported on a draft EU proposal due to be unveiled next week that would see the bloc reduce electricity prices and roll out clean energy more quickly in response to the crisis.
UNSOLICITED ADVICE: Trump renewed his criticism of UK energy policy and called on the government to “drill, baby drill”, reported the Independent. Via social media, the president said: “Europe is desperate for energy, and yet the United Kingdom refuses to open North Sea oil, one of the greatest fields in the world. Tragic!!!” (See Carbon Brief’s recent factcheck of various false claims about the North Sea.)
Around the world
- C-WORD: Faced with pressure from the US, countries attending spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank were urged to “not mention the climate”, reported the Guardian. It added that plans to agree a new “climate change action plan” for the World Bank “may be shelved, along with substantive discussion of the climate crisis”.
- NEW DIRECTION: Péter Magyar’s landslide victory over Victor Orbán in Hungary’s elections “presents new opportunities for the country to reduce emissions and invest in clean energy”, reported Time. Carbon Brief explored what it means for European climate action.
- ‘FURNACE’ SUMMER: There was widespread coverage – including in the Boston Globe, ABC News, CNN, Euro Weekly News, Guardian and New Scientist – of warnings from meteorologists of the development of a “super” El Niño phenomenon that could ramp up temperatures and drive extreme weather.
- ANTALYA COP: The Turkish government unveiled the dates and venues for the “leaders’ summit” segment of November’s COP31 conference, according to Climate Home News.
- PACIFIC PRE-COP: Meanwhile, the Guardian reported that Tuvalu will host a special meeting of world leaders before the climate summit in Antalya.
€10bn a year
The amount of state support that French prime minister Sébastien Lecornu has pledged for electrification through to 2030 in a bid to reduce the country’s dependence on fossil fuels. In a speech late on Friday 10 April, Lecornu noted the figure amounted to a “doubling” of existing support.
Latest climate research
- Over a four-month period of 2023, more than 70% of editorials discussing net-zero in four right-leaning UK newspapers included “at least one misleading statement” | Climate Policy
- Air pollution from global transport currently has a net cooling effect that offsets 80% of the warming impact of the sector’s CO2 emissions | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
- The incorporation of “observational constraints” into climate-model projections suggests that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation could weaken by 50% by 2100 in a medium-emissions scenario | Science Advances
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
Analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) found that global electricity generation from fossil fuels fell in the first month of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Across all countries with real-time electricity data outside of China, coal-fired power generation fell 3.5% and gas-fired power generation fell 4.0%, according to CREA. This was offset by a rise in solar power and wind generation, which increased by 14% and 8%, respectively. Hydropower generation also saw a small increase, the analysis showed, but this was “more than offset” by a drop in nuclear power generation.
Spotlight
How climate change affects Afghan lives
This week, Carbon Brief reports on the impact of climate change in Afghanistan, following deadly floods this year.
Earlier this month, heavy rains, flash floods and landslides struck large parts of Afghanistan, damaging thousands of homes, destroying crops, bridges and roads and taking nearly 100 lives.
The flooding – reported to have affected 74,000 people in 31 of 34 provinces – is the latest weather-related catastrophe to afflict the nation, whose communities have suffered the brunt of repeated flash floods, droughts and landslides in recent years.
Hameed Hakimi, non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center, told Carbon Brief the recent floods would hurt livelihoods and food security, noting reports of destroyed wheat and rice crops in the most affected eastern parts of the country. He said:
“This is common. For at least a decade now, [we have seen] these flash floodings and the damage that happens to rural life, farming, the disruption to crops…Flash flooding physically eats up the land. So, it not only damages where people live, but also people’s livelihoods, based on what they grow.”
The damage to crops will be felt acutely, he explained, given that food security in the landlocked nation is already strained by the blockage of its main transit trade artery through Pakistan and international sanctions that have frozen long-term development aid.
Speaking to Carbon Brief, Abdulhadi Achakzai, founding CEO of the Environmental Protection Trainings and Development Organization (EPTDO), an Afghan NGO, described flooding in Afghanistan as a “chronic situation”.
Achakzai, whose organisation runs projects that help urban and rural communities adapt to climate impacts, says climate change hurts the country in four key ways: extreme drought; extreme temperature; “natural hazards”, including landslides and dust storms; and, finally, flash flooding. He said:
“Climate change is a serious matter in Afghanistan. Every nation and every corner within this country is severely affected.”
Ranked 176 of 187 on the University of Notre Dame “global adaptation index”, Afghanistan is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change.
Average temperature across the country has increased from 12.2C in 1960 to 14.2C in 2024, according to the World Bank’s climate change knowledge portal. Drought is widespread, severe and persistent – harming food and water security in a nation of subsistence farmers.
Meanwhile, extreme weather events are the leading driver of internal displacement in the country. More than three-quarters of the 710,000 people who relocated within Afghanistan in 2024 did so driven by “environmental hazards”, such as drought and flood, according to a recent climate vulnerability assessment from the International Organization for Migration.
Finance struggles
Despite feeling the impacts of extreme weather, Afghanistan has been barred from UN climate negotiations and had limited access to climate finance since 2021. (The government attended COP29 in Baku as guests of the Azerbaijan hosts, but did not take part in formal negotiations.)
This is because the international community does not recognise the Taliban government, which resumed power in 2021, due to its record on human rights and its repression of women and girls in particular.
Almost all financing from key climate funds has been suspended, with the exception of a few projects where UN agencies and NGOs act simultaneously as a “requesting” and “implementation” partner.
Aid from UN climate funds fell from $5.9m annually over 2014-20 to $3.9m annually over 2021-24, according to recent analysis by the Berghof Foundation. Multilateral development banks provided a further $337m of funds badged as “climate finance” over 2021-23, it said.
By comparison, Afghanistan’s national climate plan, submitted to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2016, requested $17.4bn in climate finance over 2020-30. An updated national climate plan seen by Carbon Brief – completed in 2021 and later endorsed by the Taliban government, but not accepted by member governments of the UNFCCC – called for $20.6bn through to 2030.
Achakzai, whose organisation attends the COP climate summit each year in an observer capacity, has in the past been the sole delegate from Afghanistan to the conference.
He is calling on the UNFCCC to accept the country’s latest climate plan – and to find an “alternative solution” that would give the people of the country a voice in negotiations. He said:
“Every year we are losing hundreds, thousands of people because of climate change-related matters. Every year we are losing hundreds, thousands of hectares of crops. We are affected by [the decisions of] other countries. Why are we not part of this process?”
Watch, read, listen
BLOSSOM WATCHER: The Guardian reported on the successful search to find a researcher to continue Japan’s 1,200-year cherry blossom record.
COP OUT: Deutsche Welle spoke to experts to understand why India walked away from its bid to host COP33 in 2028.
‘BOMBS AND PORN’: The New Republic looked at who is set to benefit from the rapid build-out of energy-intensive AI datacentres.
Coming up
- 20-24 April: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) working group one report author meeting, Santiago, Chile
- 22 April: Earth day
- 22 April: Launch of third edition of the Lancet Countdown’s Europe report
- 24-29 April: First conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels, Santa Marta, Colombia
Pick of the jobs
- International Organization for Migration, senior thematic associate (climate action) | Salary: UN G-6 salary grade | Location: Dakar, Senegal
- Climate Action Network UK, several board member roles | Salary: Unknown. Location: Unknown
- UK Department for Energy, Food and Rural Affairs, G7 science lead | Salary: £56,375. Location: Bristol, London, Newcastle-upon-Tyne or York, UK
- Save the Children UK, senior climate change advisor | Salary: £62,000-£65,000. Location: London
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 17 April 2026: Fossil-fuel power slumps | ‘Super’ El Niño warning | Afghanistan’s climate struggle appeared first on Carbon Brief.
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