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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s Cropped.
We handpick and explain the most important stories at the intersection of climate, land, food and nature over the past fortnight.

Key developments

Weather-related hunger

‘LARGE-SCALE HUNGER’: A new report from the Clingendael Institute, a Dutch thinktank, found that “around 2.5 million people in Sudan could die from hunger by September 2024”, Middle East Eye reported. The report said “that parts of the country have likely already reached the tipping point at which large-scale hunger transitions into large-scale death”, the outlet wrote. The civil war that broke out in Sudan in April 2023 has disrupted food supply chains and logistics, but the shortage “has been worsened by drought and flooding, likely exacerbated by climate change”, Truthout said. Al Jazeera reported that “more than 25 million people scattered across Sudan, South Sudan and Chad are ‘trapped in a spiral’ of food insecurity”, according to the World Food Programme.

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PROLONGED DROUGHT: Zambia’s environment minister, Collins Nzovu, has warned that the drought that has gripped southern Africa in recent months is “a harbinger of what is in store for the region as the climate crisis worsens”, the Guardian reported. The newspaper continued: “People are reaching the end of their food stores, and importing from other countries in the region has become much harder as they too are feeling the impacts of the drought.” Hydropower capacity has also halved in the country, which receives about 95% of its electricity from dams. The Times of Zambia reported last month that the World Food Programme was giving Zambia $3.3m “to help the country respond to the drought”. 

MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT: The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), which monitors global hunger, “forecast that 28% of Afghanistan’s population, about 12.4 million people, will face acute food insecurity before October”, the Associated Press reported. This is a “slight improvement” over the previous IPC report, “but underline[s] the continuing need for assistance”, the newswire said. It added that “torrential rains and flash floods” in the northern part of the country last month killed more than 400 people, damaged or destroyed “thousands of homes” and turned farmland into mud. The Afghanistan Times reported that the floods have also “destroyed numerous water systems”, causing “difficulties in accessing sufficient clean water for drinking, cooking and bathing”.

END OF EL NIÑO: Meanwhile, despite the coming end to El Niño, “it is uncertain how soon a transition to a cooler La Niña will bring respite from the heat”, New Scientist wrote. The outlet explained: “El Niño is associated with hotter average temperatures and a distinctive pattern of weather conditions in much of the world.” It noted that background warming heightened the impacts of extreme weather events during this El Niño in many parts of the world, including flooding in Afghanistan and “intense” wildfire seasons in South America and Indonesia. But, it added: “Not all these effects were entirely negative. In the Horn of Africa, for instance, the rain helped ease a drought that has contributed to near-famine conditions in the region.”

Bird flu continues to spread

CASE BY CASE: The US reported a third human case of the H5N1 avian influenza and the first with the “respiratory symptoms that are more typical of human influenza infections”, CNN reported. All three cases so far have occurred in workers on dairy farms who had direct contact with infected cows. The outlet added that “the addition of respiratory symptoms doesn’t necessarily indicate that the virus has become more dangerous or that it may transmit more easily from person to person”. But in the New York Times, virologist Dr Rick Bright wrote that “the current bird flu situation is at a dangerous inflection point”.

SILENCE BEFORE THE STORM: Bright pointed out that the virus has now been found in 69 dairy herds in nine states. But the “agribusiness industry is eerily quiet about bird flu”, Gene Baur, an animal-rights activist, wrote in the Des Moines Register. He added that “lax responses from…industry indicate that there is no rush to spend the time and money needed to address this growing crisis”. Meanwhile, according to the Los Angeles Times, a “growing number” of states are moving to legalise the sale of raw milk, despite finding “high levels” of the virus in samples.

TWO FLUS: The first human case of H5N1 avian influenza in Australia was detected two weeks ago, in a child who had recently travelled to India, Reuters reported. The child has “made a full recovery” and there “was a very low chance of others becoming infected”, the newswire wrote. Meanwhile, a different strain of avian influenza has been detected near Melbourne, Reuters reported in a separate piece. The newswire wrote: “Hundreds of thousands of birds have already been destroyed after bird flu was found at two Australian egg farms last month.” According to the Victoria state government, “the outbreak poses no risk to consumers of eggs and poultry products”.

TREATY TALKS STALL: Meanwhile, the World Health Assembly ended without a finalised pandemic treaty, although member states agreed to extend the body’s mandate, with an aim to finalise the treaty by next year’s assembly, according to Down to Earth. The assembly did, however, “adop[t] crucial amendments to the International Health Regulations”. These included “pledging improved access to medical products and financing”, which will help protect the world against future pandemics, the outlet wrote. Al Jazeera explained that it appears that talks broke down over knowledge and technology sharing around new disease-causing pathogens. (For more on the importance of the pandemic agreement, see Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed from earlier this year.)

Offset push

MIXED MESSAGING: The US government announced new rules “to govern the use of voluntary carbon credits [while] seeking to boost confidence” in a market that has seen high-profile projects “failing to deliver” on emission cuts, Reuters reported. Meanwhile, a Financial Times story quoted US treasury secretary Janet Yellen calling for corporate buyers of carbon credits to “prioritise reducing their own emissions” and that participation in voluntary carbon markets should only “complement these efforts”. However, Yellen added that countries “need to use all the tools at our disposal”, including markets and private capital. The new federal guidelines attempt to define what “high-integrity” offsets are, the New York Times wrote, “meaning they can deliver real and quantifiable emissions reductions for projects that wouldn’t have happened otherwise”.

OFFSETS UNRAVELLING: Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported that one of the world’s biggest carbon-offsetting projects, based in Zimbabwe, is being withdrawn from Verra, a “key registry and standards body”. The Kariba forestry project, operated by Carbon Green Investments, “has emerged as one of the most controversial projects in the market for carbon offsets”, Bloomberg added. Kariba’s withdrawal from Verra “risks undermining one of the carbon market’s key insurance mechanisms”, which is a pool of surplus credits “set aside to cover events such as forest fires”, it said. Meanwhile, a SourceMaterial investigation with the Times questioned a claim from offset platform Carbon Done Right that it had “secured 57,000 hectares for offsetting” in Sierra Leone. The investigation found that no such leases had been registered with local authorities.

DWINDLING APPETITE: According to a new report by Ecosystems Marketplace, the market for carbon offsets “shrank dramatically” in 2023, falling from $1.9bn (£1.5bn) in 2022 to $723m (£551m) in 2023, the Guardian reported. The 61% contraction in market size was attributed to a “flurry of scientific studies and media reports that concluded millions of offsets were worthless”, the story adds. However, Prof Julia Jones of Bangor University, who co-authored one such study, told the Guardian – and wrote in Nature Ecology & Evolution – that she was “deeply concerned” that recent media coverage “gives the impression that the very idea of tackling climate change by slowing tropical deforestation is a scam”. She added: “This is not true and the idea could harm forests.”

News and views

‘BOILING NOT WARMING’: Thailand’s marine life is “suffering” due to record ocean temperatures, “worrying scientists and local communities”, the Bangkok Post reported. Mass coral bleaching is underway, with Lalita Putchim, a marine biologist with the country’s department of marine and coastal resources, telling the newspaper: “I couldn’t find a single healthy coral…Almost all of the species have bleached, there’s very little that’s not affected.” The temperatures – reaching close to 33C – are also impacting the livelihoods of local fishers, with potential knock-on effects for food prices and food security, the outlet noted. 

POLAND FARMER STRIKES: A DeSmog investigation revealed that Orka – a new Polish farmers’ movement that stormed the country’s parliament on 9 May – rose to prominence “after it was championed by populist politicians”, despite identifying itself as an “apolitical” group of “common farmers”. DeSmog uncovered “a number of far-right links to two of the group’s leading figures”. Rightwing Polish MPs gave Orka “access to the parliament building” and have “also been quick to join” Orka’s protest, which has said it wants to put the EU Green Deal “in the trash”, the outlet added. Politicians named in the piece had not yet responded to DeSmog.

SEABED SUIT: WWF-Norway has sued the Norwegian government “for its controversial decision to open up vast parts of its continental shelf to deep seabed mining”, the Maritime Executive reported. The suit claims that the government’s impact assessment “fails to satisfy minimum requirements of the country’s subsea minerals act”. The outlet added that the NGO had sent an initial notice to the government in April, while the government responded that the lawsuit is “lacking merit”. According to the Guardian, the Norwegian Environment Agency “has also said the impact assessment does not provide a sufficient scientific or legal basis for deep-sea mining”.

WOLVES RETURN: The Irish Times reported that wolf populations are “making a comeback” in Europe “thanks to wildlife protection measures” introduced by the EU. According to the newspaper, the number of wolves has grown 81% since 2012, to more than 20,000, and their range is up 25%. While Spain, host to “one of the largest populations in the EU”, has “tightened” its measures to protect the wolf, a “backlash” is stirring at the EU level, it adds. In December, Ursula Von Der Leyen’s conservative party backed a proposal to downgrade the protected status of wolves, Agriland reported. And, last week, the EU council of agricultural ministers “heard calls for more to be done to address the rise in wolf attacks on livestock”.

NZ’S ‘WAR ON NATURE’: New Zealand’s rightwing government was accused of “waging a war on nature” by environmentalists after it made “sweeping cuts” to climate projects in its 2024-25 budget, the Guardian reported. While the country’s climate minister pointed to flood defences and a waste levy when asked about the absence of new funding for environmental protection, critics described these as “the ambulance at the bottom of the cliff without future-facing climate mitigation plans”, the paper added.

OJ INFLATION: Orange juice makers are considering switching to mandarins as wholesale prices have “gone bananas” following fears of poor harvests in Brazil, the Guardian reported. It added that orange trees in Brazil have been hit by an “incurable disease” after “extreme heat stress and drought during their key flowering period…fuelled by the climate crisis”. Florida, another key growing region, has been “hit by a series of hurricanes and the greening disease, which is spread by sap-sucking insects”, it added.  The Financial Times quoted Kees Cools, the president of the International Fruit and Vegetable Juice Association, who said: “We’ve never seen anything like it, even during the big freezes and big hurricanes.”

MONKEY BUSINESS: More than 150 howler monkeys – “midsize primates known for their roaring vocal calls” – have died, apparently of heat stroke, amidst a major heatwave in Mexico, the Associated Press reported. In a northern Mexican animal park, “at least a hundred parrots, bats and other animals have died, apparently of dehydration”, the newswire added. Mexican newspaper La Prensa reported that volunteers were working to “establish drinking fountains for wildlife” in affected communities.

Watch, read, listen

FARMERS’ FURY: An Article 14 story explained why Punjab’s farmers “boycotted” Narendra Modi’s party in India’s general elections that concluded this week.

CHAT GPTREE?: This Guardian podcast looked at the literature to see if the “wood-wide web” – the idea that trees can talk to each other – holds water against new evidence.

FROG FUNGUS: In Sequencer, freelance journalist Max Levy explored the single deadliest pathogen for biodiversity loss: a deadly fungus imperilling amphibian populations. 

ISLAND DROUGHT: Euronews Green followed the plight of Sicilian farmers trying to cope with one of the island’s worst droughts on record – exacerbated by poor water management.

New science

Global groundwater warming due to climate change
Nature Geoscience

New research found that, on average, global groundwater is projected to warm by more than 2C over the 21st century under a medium-emissions pathway. By modelling the diffusion of heat from the surface through the ground and maps of water-table depth, researchers calculated monthly temperatures for groundwater around the world from 2000 to 2100. They found that groundwater temperatures increased by an average of 0.3C over 2000-20, although with significant variation from place to place. They concluded that climate change under a medium-emissions pathway could push groundwater resources for 77-188 million people above the “highest threshold for drinking water temperatures set by any country”.

African food system and biodiversity mainly affected by urbanisation via dietary shifts
Nature Sustainability

Increasing rice demand due to urbanisation will increase Africa’s methane emissions by 2.4% by 2050, according to new research. Using projections of urban expansion in Africa, researchers modelled land-use changes and the accompanying production changes for staple crops. They found that more than 3m hectares of land will be converted to urban land under a “middle-of-the-road” narrative – a relatively small proportional decrease, but with potential major impacts on local biodiversity. The authors argued that land-use planning and policymaking should take into account impacts on food production and biodiversity loss.

The human side of rewilding: Attitudes towards multi-species restoration at the public-private land nexus
Biological Conservation

A new study looking to understand US public opinion towards rewilding found more negative attitudes and behaviour when it came to reintroducing species that could harm livestock or humans or those that require more regulation. Conversely, interest groups favoured initiatives that involved conserving species migration as an ecological process. Researchers surveyed five stakeholder groups – “local ranchers, statewide ranchers, rural residents, urban residents and members of conservation organisations” – across the state of Montana. The results, they concluded, highlight “how achieving rewilding in working lands will require community engagement to increase public support and continued assessments of social processes that may limit multi-species restoration”.

In the diary

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cropped email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

Cropped is researched and written by Dr Giuliana Viglione, Aruna Chandrasekhar, Daisy Dunne, Orla Dwyer and Yanine Quiroz. Please send tips and feedback to cropped@carbonbrief.org.

The post Cropped 5 June 2024: Sudan famine ‘imminent’; Pandemic treaty drags on; US backs offsets with ‘integrity’ appeared first on Carbon Brief.

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Big banks behind “net zero” alliance continued lending to coal firms

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Several major banks that helped set up the UN’s now-defunct Net-Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA) in 2021 have since continued to lend money to coal companies, a new report has revealed.

Bank of America, Barclays, Citibank, Deutsche Bank and Santander were heavily involved in the NZBA and the associated Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) when it was launched by Mark Carney, then a UN climate envoy and now Canada’s leader, in the run-up to the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow.

Despite their involvement, data released this week shows those banks and some others did not reduce the amount of money they lent, nor the value of their underwriting, to coal activities between 2022 and 2025. Around half of the NZBA members who were engaged in coal financing over that time increased it and half cut it, according to the report by German environmental research group Urgewald.

Ana Botín, executive chair of Santander, was a member of the GFANZ CEO principals’ group and said at the time of the NZBA launch that her Spanish bank was “proud to be part of the founding members of this new alliance and to accelerate progress towards net zero”.

Since then, the report’s data documents that Santander has provided loans and underwriting worth hundreds of millions of dollars each year to coal companies, particularly American coal-power plant operators Duke Energy and the Southern Company. Santander did not respond to a request for comment.

Urgewald’s research adjusts the value of loans and underwriting provided to coal companies based on how much of a company’s revenues come from the most polluting fossil fuel. So a hypothetical $100 million loan to German utility RWE is valued at $21 million, as 21% of RWE’s revenue is from coal.

The research does not take account of whether companies are expanding their coal business or phasing it out for greener alternatives. Some banks have said their coal clients need to put in place transition plans by a certain date. Some also say that, by a certain date, they will stop lending money to clients that get more than a set percentage of their revenue from coal.

    Most companies expanding coal are in Asian nations like China, India and Indonesia and are largely financed by banks from their own countries. But there are examples of NZBA founding members supporting companies that are actively prolonging the life of their coal businesses.

    For example, Glencore, a Switzerland-based multinational that gets 4% of its revenue from coal, has just won preliminary regulatory approval to keep on coal mining in Australia’s Hunter Valley until 2045. Last year, the company was supported by loans and underwriting from Bank of America, Citigroup, Santander, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, HSBC and Standard Chartered.

    Good and bad news

    Some NZBA founding members like Swiss giant UBS have reduced their loans and underwriting for coal companies, the data suggests. Others – like Triodos and Kenya Commercial Bank – have provided no support for coal companies since at least 2021.

    Urgewald researcher Hannah O’Neill told Climate Home News that “the banking sector is not moving in one direction. There is a growing divide between banks that are tightening their coal policies and reducing their exposure, and those where coal policies remain weak or where financing continues.”

    Unlike the UN’s Race to Zero campaign, with which it partnered, the NZBA did not require its members to end financing for fossil fuels like coal, leading to accusations by climate campaigners that its rules were too weak.

    Despite this, after Donald Trump’s re-election as US president in November 2024, several North American banks quit the alliance and the NZBA’s requirements were diluted in April 2025. After further withdrawals, the group shut itself down in October 2025.

    Globally, the Urgewald report found that many banks in the European Union, Thailand, Malaysia, India and Taiwan have reduced their coal finance since governments agreed at COP26 to phase down coal power.

    But with Chinese, American, Indonesian and South Korean banks increasing their support, total bank financing for the coal industry has remained broadly the same each year since 2022. 

    “Coal financing is not disappearing – but it is concentrating in banks and markets where coal policies are either missing or weak,” said Heffa Schücking, director of Urgewald.

    Urgewald’s definition of coal companies includes firms and their subsidiaries that explore for, process, trade, transport and mine coal, or burn it in power plants to produce electricity, or manufacture equipment for the coal industry. It does not include companies that use coal to make cement or steel – and an adjustment is made to account for how much of the business model is coal-related.

    Banks defend delays

    At the time of publication, most of the banks named in the report for increasing their coal finance had not responded to requests for comment. But a spokesperson for Deutsche Bank pointed Climate Home News to its May 2026 announcement that it was delaying its requirement for existing clients to present it with transition plans and cut their coal exposure.

    Instead of having to present these plans by the end of 2025, the bank has given them until the end of 2027. They will also have to ensure that their revenue share from thermal coal falls below half by then, the bank added. New clients need energy transition plans to access finance.

    Deutsche Bank said at the time it was delaying its requirements because of the “increasingly complex regulatory environment as well as differing speeds of energy transition in various regions beyond what was anticipated by Deutsche Bank in 2023”.

    Big banks’ lending to coal backers undermines Indonesia’s green plans 

    A spokesperson for Barclays told Climate Home News: “Many companies in this report are diversified energy or mining companies. We do not provide financing to companies that generate more than 30% of revenues from thermal coal mining or power generation, and we will phase out all financing by 2035.”

    The Barclays spokesperson added: “Barclays is financing an energy sector in transition, providing finance to meet current energy needs and also financing the scaling of clean energy. Over the past three years, we have facilitated more than $300 billion of sustainable and transition finance, including billions to cleaner energy projects, and invested millions into climate tech.”

    The post Big banks behind “net zero” alliance continued lending to coal firms appeared first on Climate Home News.

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    As COP31 co-host, Australia should make its polluters pay for climate damage

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    Harjeet Singh is the global convenor of the Fill the Fund campaign and founding director of the Satat Sampada Climate Foundation. Julie-Anne Richards is strategic campaign lead for the Make Big Polluters Pay campaign in Australia.

    This year, a glacier collapse in Nepal’s Himalayan valleys swept away the lives of at least 1,500 people, with recovery costs of US$5 billion, or 10% of national GDP. But this was not a tragedy for which no one can be blamed. This was a crime with a balance sheet – one whose costs are paid by people who did nothing to cause it, and whose profits are booked by polluting corporations that did everything.

    Across the Pacific, the calculation of injustice is now brutally clear. According to Oxfam Australia, the average yearly GDP loss of Pacific countries from climate disasters has increased four-fold over the last decade, reaching 14.3% of GDP. The number of Pacific people battered by climate disasters has risen by 700% in a decade. Whole villages are being packed up and moved as the sea takes the land beneath them.

      Let’s look at the other ledger. This year, as climate change and an oil shock drove up the cost of living for ordinary families, Woodside – touted as “one of Australia’s biggest winners” from the war in the Middle East – reported revenues jumping nearly 30% to AUD$6 billion in just three months.

      In Australia, Oxfam finds that in 2023-2024, fossil fuel corporations paid only AUD$22.8 billion in corporate income tax – just 5% of their AUD$436 billion in total reported income – while 26 out of 80, or one in every three large fossil fuel corporations, did not pay corporate income tax at all.

      The polluters are not struggling to pay for the damage they cause. They are choosing not to.

      This is the moral obscenity at the heart of the climate crisis: the money exists. It is simply flowing in the wrong direction. And nowhere is that clearer than in the funds the world built to protect the vulnerable, now left to languish.

      Funds struggle to fill their coffers

      The Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) has received US$2.8 billion in requests from 119 countries. And Nepal has sought an urgent US$20 million for immediate needs. Yet the Fund has only US$342 million in total to give.

      The Pacific Resilience Facility – a fund the Pacific designed for itself, to prepare its own communities – sits well short of even its modest US$500 million capitalisation target. And the Adaptation Fund is running on empty. While adaptation needs in developing countries could reach US$387 billion a year by 2030, according to the latest UNEP Adaptation Gap report, the Fund’s resource mobilisation target of a modest US$300 million for 2025 fell far short, with only US$135 million pledged.

      This is a matter of priorities, not of resources. For decades, the world has accepted a simple principle – the polluter pays principle – whether through the OECD, of which Australia is a member, or Europe’s carbon pricing. New York and Vermont have already passed laws to make Big Oil pay into climate superfunds, and ten more US states are moving to follow.

      The idea is neither radical nor new. It’s time to make big polluters pay.

      Comment: After Hormuz, Nepal and wildfires, people want action to make polluters pay

      What is urgently needed is the courage to apply it to the fossil fuel corporations that have spent decades avoiding it. In November, Australia takes up the presidency of the COP31 negotiations, committing to stand shoulder to shoulder with its Pacific neighbours.

      Australia, together with the Turkish COP31 Presidency, must guide and inspire progress at the upcoming climate conference, including on new climate finance pledges by developed countries (which agreed to mobilise at least $300 billion by 2035) and triple the funds available to the FRLD, the Adaptation Fund and the other UN climate funds.

      Rich countries agreed to these goals two years ago at COP29. Yet, the reality is that developing countries’ need for climate finance is in the trillions annually, while developed countries continue to delay providing even what they have already committed. A clear signal recognising the importance of delivering the promised climate finance must come at next week’s Pre-COP in the Pacific, and COP31 in Antalya must go on to deliver against existing promises or risk an irreparable breakdown in trust.

      Time for a climate pollution levy

      Countries must also ensure funding for loss and damage takes its rightful place as the third pillar of climate finance, alongside mitigation and adaptation, in negotiations regarding the UNFCCC climate finance work programme and Article 9 on shifting finance flows towards a low-carbon, resilient world.

      Australia, as President of Negotiations and as a Pacific nation, cannot ask the world to fill these funds while it lets its own coal and gas giants off the hook. Australia should not only stop approving new and expanded coal and gas mines, it should also introduce a Climate Pollution Levy on big coal, oil and gas corporations – a charge on every tonne of carbon pollution they extract and profit from. Independent analysis shows such a levy could raise tens of billions of dollars a year, and can be designed so the cost falls on the corporations, not on households.

      This is not charity – it is compensation. It is the beginning of accountability. And the public is far ahead of its leaders: eight in 10 people worldwide, and a clear majority of Australians, want fossil fuel firms taxed to pay for the damage they cause.

      Fossil fuel expansion threatens COP31 hosts’ credibility, experts warn

      The money must go where the harm lands. A Climate Pollution Levy should feed the funds frontline communities are relying on – fully capitalising the Pacific Resilience Facility this year, replenishing the Adaptation Fund, and delivering the billions the loss and damage fund needs.

      It is essential for these funds to be able to provide grant-based finance that reaches communities directly, not more loans that push drowning nations deeper into debt. With Nepal’s recovery costs estimated at around 10% of the country’s GDP, if we leave it to fend for itself without loss and damage funding, Nepal will likely be saddled with debt and could fail to recover adequately, increasing poverty and inequality.

      We have heard enough empty pledges. We have watched enough funds announced with fanfare, only then to be starved in silence. The era of asking polluters politely is over. Australia, as COP31 president, has a rare chance to prove that the polluter pays principle means something and apply it to those who have profited the most.

      The post As COP31 co-host, Australia should make its polluters pay for climate damage appeared first on Climate Home News.

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      What’s on the climate calendar for October 2026?

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      This is a republication of October’s edition of The Climate Agenda – a subscriber-only newsletter designed to keep you informed of the key events, negotiations and announcements happening every month. If you want to receive The Climate Agenda straight to your inbox at the start of each month, sign up as a subscriber today.

      This month, we’ll be on the ground reporting from the Convention on Biological Diversity summit in Yerevan, Armenia later this month and following all the developments as we build towards COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye next month. Here’s what you need to know for October, why it matters and what to expect.

      Brazilian Election

      First round: Sunday 4 October – Second round: Sunday 25 October

      This poll is being closely watched by Brazilian environmentalists as it’s likely to make a big difference to Brazil’s international climate politics and the health of the Amazon rainforest.

      The two clear front-runners are current left-wing President Lula and right-wing Flávio Bolsonaro. Flávio is the son of Jair Bolsonaro, who ruled from 2019 to 2023 but was declared ineligible to hold public office because of his attacks on the electoral system and is now under house arrest.

      In the unlikely event that either candidate wins more than half the votes in the first round, they will be elected as the country’s leader. Latest polls have Lula on 39% and Bolsonaro on 35% (though the numbers are shifting) with several minor candidates in the single-digits. If none of them get a majority, there will be a one-on-one run-off on October 25.

      The Latin American nation is set to record its lowest-ever level of deforestation, as efforts to rein in illegal clearing and restore Indigenous rights progressed under Lula. But Brazilian experts are warning that the huge agribusiness lobby in Congress, whose interests shape what happens in the Amazon, will be emboldened if Bolsonaro takes power, with the Supreme Court also risking a turn to the right.

      As for climate politics, some seasoned watchers fear that Flávio – a climate change denier like his dad – could even try to pull Brazil out of the Paris Agreement. That would leave other countries to take forward Brazil’s COP30 global roadmaps on transitioning away from fossil fuels (TAFF) and ending deforestation – both of which are due to be delivered by COP31.

      For Brazil’s own TAFF roadmap – commissioned earlier this year but so far nowhere to be seen – the election may have less of an impact, given Lula is as keen as any other politician to extract oil and gas from the Amazon, amid cross-party support for fossil fuel production.

      Read more: Brazil leads “encouraging” decline in global rainforest destruction in 2025

      What does the UN say about countries protecting oceans?
      The Pacific nation of Tuvalu is facing an existential threat due to the impact of climate change on rising seas. (Photo: Theo Rouby / Hans Lucas via REUTERS)

      Pre-COP

      Monday 5 October – Thursday 8 October – Fiji and Tuvalu

      The annual Pre-COP meeting is usually a business-like gathering of government negotiators, sounding out each other’s positions and laying the groundwork for deals at the main COP summit. But this year’s “pre” has been jazzed up by Australia’s partnership with Pacific governments keen to elevate their climate issues on the international stage.

      “We will bring the eyes of the world to our region, highlight the threat that climate change poses to it, and show how Pacific voices are shaping global action to counter it,” Australian PM Anthony Albanese said of the event.

      On Monday, before the Pre-COP officially starts, a group of senior government figures – including a handful of leaders – will visit the world’s second lowest-lying nation Tuvalu, as UN boss Antonio Guterres did in 2019.

      They will visit areas affected by sea level rise, see climate resilience projects and meet local communities before flying 2.5 hours south to Fiji to join up with the Pre-COP – which starts on Tuesday – and speak at a “Leaders’ plenary session” that evening.

      The Pre-COP runs until Thursday. Governments are expected to try to advance on some kind of a roadmap for protecting oceans from climate change, while Fiji says Pacific nations will emphasise the need to follow science and step up efforts to limit warming to 1.5C.

      Australia is also due to present an action plan to improve access to climate finance for small island nations and least-developed countries, so that governments, development banks and climate funds can endorse it ahead of the Antalya summit.

      Alongside the official Pre-COP discussions, a “green zone” will host talks organised by civil society on topics like public transport, carbon markets and the International Court of Justice advisory opinion. Unfortunately, these events won’t be available to follow online.

      Read more: Threatened by rising seas, small islands secure right to keep their statehood

      Read more: At regional summit, Pacific islands ask for COP31 support for clean energy and finance

      Forest clearance for a palm oil plantation in Indonesia on 1/4/2018 (Ulet Ifansasti/ Greenpeace)

      Article 6.4 Supervisory Body

      Monday 5 October – Friday 9 October – Bonn, Germany

      The UN carbon market’s rule-making body meets for one last jam-packed session ahead of COP31, with decisions pending on several high-stakes issues that could shape the future of the new crediting mechanism.

      Top of the agenda is a rulebook for clean cooking projects, which aim to cut greenhouse gas emissions by distributing more efficient cookstoves. These projects generate some of the most popular carbon credits but have also drawn some of the heaviest criticism for overstating their climate benefits through lax accounting.

      Technical experts have recommended the Supervisory Body tighten the rules compared to existing crediting programmes, including by forcing cookstove project developers for the first time to guard against the risk of the climate benefits of their credits – the trees saved from becoming cooking fuel – being wiped out by fire, drought or logging.

      The proposal on the so-called reversal risk assessment has sparked a “coordinated” lobbying campaign from the industry, some conservation NGOs and UNEP, arguing that stronger protections could hike project costs and restrict the supply of credits.

      Read more: Industry and NGOs lobby to weaken UN carbon credit rules in “coordinated” push

      Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) plenary

      Monday 12 October – Friday 16 October – Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

      Scientists and government officials will try, once again, to agree on a timeline to produce the highly influential AR7 assessment report from the UN’s climate science body.

      The faultlines that have blocked a deal at several previous sessions are well established: a large group of predominantly developed countries, small island and progressive Latin American states and the poorest nations want the reports to be ready in time to inform the UN’s next global assessment of climate action, due to be completed in November 2028.

      A small group of primarily big emerging economies disagree, claiming this timeline would put a burden on developing countries with limited resources and restrict their ability to provide scientific input into the process.

      Three options will be on the table in Addis Ababa. Two of them would see all three flagship assessment reports approved by July 2028 and September 2028 respectively, just in time to feed into the second Global Stocktake.

      The third, based on proposals from Saudi Arabia and India, would deliver only the Working Group 1 report, on the physical science of climate change, by May 2028. The reports from Working Groups 2 and 3, covering climate impacts and ways to cut emissions, would not be approved until mid-2029, well after the stocktake concludes at COP33.

      Delegates are also expected to discuss the IPCC’s increasingly strained budget, made worse by a funding gap left by the withdrawal of the United States. The panel has warned that, without a sustained increase in contributions, its trust fund’s cash balance would run out by the end of 2028, putting the delivery of the AR7 set of reports at risk and forcing cuts to in-person meetings, translation and outreach.

      Read more: Science ‘under attack’ from fossil fuel interests at UN climate talks

      Read more: As science comes under attack at UN talks, climate movement splits over how to respond

      A small group of climate activists gather in front of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group 2025 Annual Meeting on October 16, 2025 in Washington, DC.
      A small group of climate activists gather in front of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group 2025 Annual Meeting on October 16, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

      World Bank & IMF Annual Meetings

      Tuesday 12 October – Sunday 18 October – Bangkok, Thailand

      With their biggest shareholder – the US – resolutely opposed to climate action, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) are likely to try to avoid mentioning climate change at their annual meetings in Bangkok – and there are no headline events on the subject.

      But they aren’t in complete control of the agenda. Thailand will host a discussion on financing a green resilient economy and World Bank President Ajay Banga is likely to be challenged on climate at a live-streamed civil society townhall on October 12.

      With tricky negotiations on the World Bank’s climate finance target concluded earlier this year (it was dropped), talks are moving on to the sustainability framework of the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation, which invests in the private sector. Civil society is calling for its rules on protecting people and the planet to be maintained and strengthened.

      The IMF’s guidance note to staff – which shapes the circumstances under which climate can be included in IMF programmes – will also be negotiated. Longer term, the Resilience and Sustainability Trust, which channels funding to green projects, will be reviewed but not before 2028 at the earliest.

      Read more: World Bank’s climate work can endure without finance target, experts say

      Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) COP17

      Monday 19 October – Friday 30 October – Yerevan, Armenia

      The biodiversity COP – a sister convention to the UN climate process – will for the first time take stock of progress towards key goals in its 2022 landmark agreement, the Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF). These include a headline target to protect and conserve at least 30% of the planet’s land and marine ecosystems by 2030.

      A draft report prepared by a scientific panel warns that “unless collective implementation accelerates rapidly, the 2030 targets and mission will not be achieved”. In fact, governments are failing on 22 out of 23 targets. The final report is expected to be published ahead of COP17, where governments are expected to react strongly.

      UN biodiversity chief Astrid Schomaker told journalists earlier this month that the most significant progress is expected to occur towards the end of the decade, as 174 countries took the first four years to develop national targets.

      Finance, meanwhile, is set to become a contentious issue, as the draft report says developed countries fell short on a target to provide $20bn per year in international public finance for nature protection, reaching only about $17bn per year from 2020 to 2023. They have also yet to meet a wider goal to mobilise $200bn per year counting all kinds of finance.

      Much like in climate talks, the EU has proposed to broaden the base of donors to include emerging economies who want to “voluntarily assume the obligations” of developed countries. Saudi Arabia and Qatar want nothing to do with this proposal. China has said bringing in new contributors should not weaken the obligations of developed countries. Expect a fight in Yerevan.

      A preliminary meeting in Nairobi in August resulted in a heavily bracketed text that delegates will have to unravel in Armenia. One observer said countries had “overall missed the level of urgency” needed.

      Keep an eye out for our webinar live from Yerevan later this month, where we’ll provide an update on the talks and how governments are responding to science’s demands for quicker action.

      Read more: Mombasa ocean summit drives progress on marine protection, but threats persist

      Read more: UN biodiversity talks agree finance roadmap, postponing decision on a new fund

      European Climate Resilience & Risk Management Framework

      Wednesday 28 October – Brussels, Belgium

      Following a torrid summer beset by recurring heatwaves, drought and outbreaks of forest fires across the continent, the European Commission will present its keenly awaited climate resilience and risk management framework to help member states protect their populations from worsening climate change impacts.

      As part of the policy package, the Commission will identify 100 of Europe’s most climate-vulnerable territories. And alongside an assessment of the risks, there will be guidance at which level they should be managed – regional, national or by the EU. Currently, confusion often arises over who is responsible for preventing, preparing for and managing disasters across the bloc.

      The framework will also aim to make Europe a “champion in adaptation technologies” – such as drought-resistant crops, flood prevention or energy-efficient cooling – which have been described by EU President Ursula von der Leyen as “a huge emerging market”.

      With only around a quarter of catastrophe losses in Europe covered by private insurance, the Commission also plans to set up a Climate Insurance Alliance to boost that figure.

      READ MORE: WHO issues new guidance on heat-health action plans, as El Niño sets in

      The post What’s on the climate calendar for October 2026? appeared first on Climate Home News.

      What’s on the climate calendar for October 2026?

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