Published

2 years ago

June 5, 2024

Alice Rush

Welcome to Carbon Brief’s Cropped.
We handpick and explain the most important stories at the intersection of climate, land, food and nature over the past fortnight.

Key developments

Weather-related hunger

‘LARGE-SCALE HUNGER’: A new report from the Clingendael Institute, a Dutch thinktank, found that “around 2.5 million people in Sudan could die from hunger by September 2024”, Middle East Eye reported. The report said “that parts of the country have likely already reached the tipping point at which large-scale hunger transitions into large-scale death”, the outlet wrote. The civil war that broke out in Sudan in April 2023 has disrupted food supply chains and logistics, but the shortage “has been worsened by drought and flooding, likely exacerbated by climate change”, Truthout said. Al Jazeera reported that “more than 25 million people scattered across Sudan, South Sudan and Chad are ‘trapped in a spiral’ of food insecurity”, according to the World Food Programme.

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PROLONGED DROUGHT: Zambia’s environment minister, Collins Nzovu, has warned that the drought that has gripped southern Africa in recent months is “a harbinger of what is in store for the region as the climate crisis worsens”, the Guardian reported. The newspaper continued: “People are reaching the end of their food stores, and importing from other countries in the region has become much harder as they too are feeling the impacts of the drought.” Hydropower capacity has also halved in the country, which receives about 95% of its electricity from dams. The Times of Zambia reported last month that the World Food Programme was giving Zambia $3.3m “to help the country respond to the drought”.

MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT: The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), which monitors global hunger, “forecast that 28% of Afghanistan’s population, about 12.4 million people, will face acute food insecurity before October”, the Associated Press reported. This is a “slight improvement” over the previous IPC report, “but underline[s] the continuing need for assistance”, the newswire said. It added that “torrential rains and flash floods” in the northern part of the country last month killed more than 400 people, damaged or destroyed “thousands of homes” and turned farmland into mud. The Afghanistan Times reported that the floods have also “destroyed numerous water systems”, causing “difficulties in accessing sufficient clean water for drinking, cooking and bathing”.

END OF EL NIÑO: Meanwhile, despite the coming end to El Niño, “it is uncertain how soon a transition to a cooler La Niña will bring respite from the heat”, New Scientist wrote. The outlet explained: “El Niño is associated with hotter average temperatures and a distinctive pattern of weather conditions in much of the world.” It noted that background warming heightened the impacts of extreme weather events during this El Niño in many parts of the world, including flooding in Afghanistan and “intense” wildfire seasons in South America and Indonesia. But, it added: “Not all these effects were entirely negative. In the Horn of Africa, for instance, the rain helped ease a drought that has contributed to near-famine conditions in the region.”

Bird flu continues to spread

CASE BY CASE: The US reported a third human case of the H5N1 avian influenza and the first with the “respiratory symptoms that are more typical of human influenza infections”, CNN reported. All three cases so far have occurred in workers on dairy farms who had direct contact with infected cows. The outlet added that “the addition of respiratory symptoms doesn’t necessarily indicate that the virus has become more dangerous or that it may transmit more easily from person to person”. But in the New York Times, virologist Dr Rick Bright wrote that “the current bird flu situation is at a dangerous inflection point”.

SILENCE BEFORE THE STORM: Bright pointed out that the virus has now been found in 69 dairy herds in nine states. But the “agribusiness industry is eerily quiet about bird flu”, Gene Baur, an animal-rights activist, wrote in the Des Moines Register. He added that “lax responses from…industry indicate that there is no rush to spend the time and money needed to address this growing crisis”. Meanwhile, according to the Los Angeles Times, a “growing number” of states are moving to legalise the sale of raw milk, despite finding “high levels” of the virus in samples.

TWO FLUS: The first human case of H5N1 avian influenza in Australia was detected two weeks ago, in a child who had recently travelled to India, Reuters reported. The child has “made a full recovery” and there “was a very low chance of others becoming infected”, the newswire wrote. Meanwhile, a different strain of avian influenza has been detected near Melbourne, Reuters reported in a separate piece. The newswire wrote: “Hundreds of thousands of birds have already been destroyed after bird flu was found at two Australian egg farms last month.” According to the Victoria state government, “the outbreak poses no risk to consumers of eggs and poultry products”.

TREATY TALKS STALL: Meanwhile, the World Health Assembly ended without a finalised pandemic treaty, although member states agreed to extend the body’s mandate, with an aim to finalise the treaty by next year’s assembly, according to Down to Earth. The assembly did, however, “adop[t] crucial amendments to the International Health Regulations”. These included “pledging improved access to medical products and financing”, which will help protect the world against future pandemics, the outlet wrote. Al Jazeera explained that it appears that talks broke down over knowledge and technology sharing around new disease-causing pathogens. (For more on the importance of the pandemic agreement, see Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed from earlier this year.)

Offset push

MIXED MESSAGING: The US government announced new rules “to govern the use of voluntary carbon credits [while] seeking to boost confidence” in a market that has seen high-profile projects “failing to deliver” on emission cuts, Reuters reported. Meanwhile, a Financial Times story quoted US treasury secretary Janet Yellen calling for corporate buyers of carbon credits to “prioritise reducing their own emissions” and that participation in voluntary carbon markets should only “complement these efforts”. However, Yellen added that countries “need to use all the tools at our disposal”, including markets and private capital. The new federal guidelines attempt to define what “high-integrity” offsets are, the New York Times wrote, “meaning they can deliver real and quantifiable emissions reductions for projects that wouldn’t have happened otherwise”.

OFFSETS UNRAVELLING: Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported that one of the world’s biggest carbon-offsetting projects, based in Zimbabwe, is being withdrawn from Verra, a “key registry and standards body”. The Kariba forestry project, operated by Carbon Green Investments, “has emerged as one of the most controversial projects in the market for carbon offsets”, Bloomberg added. Kariba’s withdrawal from Verra “risks undermining one of the carbon market’s key insurance mechanisms”, which is a pool of surplus credits “set aside to cover events such as forest fires”, it said. Meanwhile, a SourceMaterial investigation with the Times questioned a claim from offset platform Carbon Done Right that it had “secured 57,000 hectares for offsetting” in Sierra Leone. The investigation found that no such leases had been registered with local authorities.

DWINDLING APPETITE: According to a new report by Ecosystems Marketplace, the market for carbon offsets “shrank dramatically” in 2023, falling from $1.9bn (£1.5bn) in 2022 to $723m (£551m) in 2023, the Guardian reported. The 61% contraction in market size was attributed to a “flurry of scientific studies and media reports that concluded millions of offsets were worthless”, the story adds. However, Prof Julia Jones of Bangor University, who co-authored one such study, told the Guardian – and wrote in Nature Ecology & Evolution – that she was “deeply concerned” that recent media coverage “gives the impression that the very idea of tackling climate change by slowing tropical deforestation is a scam”. She added: “This is not true and the idea could harm forests.”

News and views

‘BOILING NOT WARMING’: Thailand’s marine life is “suffering” due to record ocean temperatures, “worrying scientists and local communities”, the Bangkok Post reported. Mass coral bleaching is underway, with Lalita Putchim, a marine biologist with the country’s department of marine and coastal resources, telling the newspaper: “I couldn’t find a single healthy coral…Almost all of the species have bleached, there’s very little that’s not affected.” The temperatures – reaching close to 33C – are also impacting the livelihoods of local fishers, with potential knock-on effects for food prices and food security, the outlet noted.

POLAND FARMER STRIKES: A DeSmog investigation revealed that Orka – a new Polish farmers’ movement that stormed the country’s parliament on 9 May – rose to prominence “after it was championed by populist politicians”, despite identifying itself as an “apolitical” group of “common farmers”. DeSmog uncovered “a number of far-right links to two of the group’s leading figures”. Rightwing Polish MPs gave Orka “access to the parliament building” and have “also been quick to join” Orka’s protest, which has said it wants to put the EU Green Deal “in the trash”, the outlet added. Politicians named in the piece had not yet responded to DeSmog.

SEABED SUIT: WWF-Norway has sued the Norwegian government “for its controversial decision to open up vast parts of its continental shelf to deep seabed mining”, the Maritime Executive reported. The suit claims that the government’s impact assessment “fails to satisfy minimum requirements of the country’s subsea minerals act”. The outlet added that the NGO had sent an initial notice to the government in April, while the government responded that the lawsuit is “lacking merit”. According to the Guardian, the Norwegian Environment Agency “has also said the impact assessment does not provide a sufficient scientific or legal basis for deep-sea mining”.

WOLVES RETURN: The Irish Times reported that wolf populations are “making a comeback” in Europe “thanks to wildlife protection measures” introduced by the EU. According to the newspaper, the number of wolves has grown 81% since 2012, to more than 20,000, and their range is up 25%. While Spain, host to “one of the largest populations in the EU”, has “tightened” its measures to protect the wolf, a “backlash” is stirring at the EU level, it adds. In December, Ursula Von Der Leyen’s conservative party backed a proposal to downgrade the protected status of wolves, Agriland reported. And, last week, the EU council of agricultural ministers “heard calls for more to be done to address the rise in wolf attacks on livestock”.

NZ’S ‘WAR ON NATURE’: New Zealand’s rightwing government was accused of “waging a war on nature” by environmentalists after it made “sweeping cuts” to climate projects in its 2024-25 budget, the Guardian reported. While the country’s climate minister pointed to flood defences and a waste levy when asked about the absence of new funding for environmental protection, critics described these as “the ambulance at the bottom of the cliff without future-facing climate mitigation plans”, the paper added.

OJ INFLATION: Orange juice makers are considering switching to mandarins as wholesale prices have “gone bananas” following fears of poor harvests in Brazil, the Guardian reported. It added that orange trees in Brazil have been hit by an “incurable disease” after “extreme heat stress and drought during their key flowering period…fuelled by the climate crisis”. Florida, another key growing region, has been “hit by a series of hurricanes and the greening disease, which is spread by sap-sucking insects”, it added. The Financial Times quoted Kees Cools, the president of the International Fruit and Vegetable Juice Association, who said: “We’ve never seen anything like it, even during the big freezes and big hurricanes.”

MONKEY BUSINESS: More than 150 howler monkeys – “midsize primates known for their roaring vocal calls” – have died, apparently of heat stroke, amidst a major heatwave in Mexico, the Associated Press reported. In a northern Mexican animal park, “at least a hundred parrots, bats and other animals have died, apparently of dehydration”, the newswire added. Mexican newspaper La Prensa reported that volunteers were working to “establish drinking fountains for wildlife” in affected communities.

Watch, read, listen

FARMERS’ FURY: An Article 14 story explained why Punjab’s farmers “boycotted” Narendra Modi’s party in India’s general elections that concluded this week.

CHAT GPTREE?: This Guardian podcast looked at the literature to see if the “wood-wide web” – the idea that trees can talk to each other – holds water against new evidence.

FROG FUNGUS: In Sequencer, freelance journalist Max Levy explored the single deadliest pathogen for biodiversity loss: a deadly fungus imperilling amphibian populations.

ISLAND DROUGHT: Euronews Green followed the plight of Sicilian farmers trying to cope with one of the island’s worst droughts on record – exacerbated by poor water management.

New science

Global groundwater warming due to climate change
Nature Geoscience

New research found that, on average, global groundwater is projected to warm by more than 2C over the 21st century under a medium-emissions pathway. By modelling the diffusion of heat from the surface through the ground and maps of water-table depth, researchers calculated monthly temperatures for groundwater around the world from 2000 to 2100. They found that groundwater temperatures increased by an average of 0.3C over 2000-20, although with significant variation from place to place. They concluded that climate change under a medium-emissions pathway could push groundwater resources for 77-188 million people above the “highest threshold for drinking water temperatures set by any country”.

African food system and biodiversity mainly affected by urbanisation via dietary shifts
Nature Sustainability

Increasing rice demand due to urbanisation will increase Africa’s methane emissions by 2.4% by 2050, according to new research. Using projections of urban expansion in Africa, researchers modelled land-use changes and the accompanying production changes for staple crops. They found that more than 3m hectares of land will be converted to urban land under a “middle-of-the-road” narrative – a relatively small proportional decrease, but with potential major impacts on local biodiversity. The authors argued that land-use planning and policymaking should take into account impacts on food production and biodiversity loss.

The human side of rewilding: Attitudes towards multi-species restoration at the public-private land nexus
Biological Conservation

A new study looking to understand US public opinion towards rewilding found more negative attitudes and behaviour when it came to reintroducing species that could harm livestock or humans or those that require more regulation. Conversely, interest groups favoured initiatives that involved conserving species migration as an ecological process. Researchers surveyed five stakeholder groups – “local ranchers, statewide ranchers, rural residents, urban residents and members of conservation organisations” – across the state of Montana. The results, they concluded, highlight “how achieving rewilding in working lands will require community engagement to increase public support and continued assessments of social processes that may limit multi-species restoration”.

In the diary

3-13 June: 60th sessions of UN Climate Change’s subsidiary bodies | Bonn, Germany
6-9 June: European elections
7-8 June: High-level event on ocean action | San Jose, Costa Rica
12 June: Sixth meeting of the informal advisory group on benefit-sharing from the use of digital sequence information on genetic resources | Online

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cropped email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

Cropped is researched and written by Dr Giuliana Viglione, Aruna Chandrasekhar, Daisy Dunne, Orla Dwyer and Yanine Quiroz. Please send tips and feedback to cropped@carbonbrief.org.

The post Cropped 5 June 2024: Sudan famine ‘imminent’; Pandemic treaty drags on; US backs offsets with ‘integrity’ appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Cropped 5 June 2024: Sudan famine ‘imminent’; Pandemic treaty drags on; US backs offsets with ‘integrity’

Climate Change

Drought Turns Southeastern US Into ‘Tinderbox’ as Wildfires Rage

Published

9 hours ago

April 29, 2026

Alice Rush

Weather extremes fuel wildfires that have burned through tens of thousands of acres across Georgia, Florida and other states.

By Kiley Price

Drought and fire are a dangerous duo. The Southeastern United States is witnessing this firsthand as several major blazes burn tens of thousands of acres across the parched region, destroying homes and prompting evacuations in some areas. Florida and Georgia have been particularly hard hit, and strong winds and unusually low humidity have made it difficult to combat the flames.

Drought Turns Southeastern US Into ‘Tinderbox’ as Wildfires Rage

Climate Change

Night Skies and Shifting Stars: How Indigenous Celestial Knowledge Tracks a Changing Climate

Published

18 hours ago

April 28, 2026

Alice Rush

When the land no longer answers the stars the way it once did, Indigenous peoples are among the first to notice — and the first to ask why.

A Sky Full of Knowledge

Look up on a clear night on Turtle Island and you’re seeing a sky that has guided human life for thousands of years. Across Indigenous nations in Canada, detailed systems of celestial knowledge developed not as abstract science but as living, practical guides —telling people when to plant, when to harvest, when herds would move, and when ice would come. This astronomical knowledge was woven into language, ceremony, and everyday life, passed down through generations with remarkable precision.

The Mi’kmaq and the Celestial Bear

Among the Mi’kmaq of Atlantic Canada, star stories are ecological calendars, precise and functional. The story of Muin and the Seven Bird Hunters connects the annual movement of what Western astronomy calls Ursa Major to the seasonal cycle of hunting and harvest: the bear rises in spring, is hunted through summer, and falls to earth in autumn. This knowledge was brought to broader public attention in 2009 during the International Year of Astronomy, when Mi’kmaq Elders Lillian Marshall of Potlotek First Nation and Murdena Marshall of Eskasoni First Nation shared the story through an animated film produced at Cape Breton University narrated in English, French, and Mi’kmaq.¹ The story encodes specific observations about when and where to hunt, and which species to expect at which time of year. It is science in narrative form.

The Anishinaabe and the Seasonal Star Map

Among the Anishinaabe peoples of the Great Lakes and northern Ontario, celestial knowledge forms part of a comprehensive seasonal understanding. Knowledge keepers like Michael Wassegijig Price of Wikwemikong First Nation have described how Anishinaabe constellations quite different from those of Western astronomy connect the movement of the heavens to naming ceremonies, seasonal gatherings, and land practices.² The Royal Astronomical Society of Canada now offers planispheres featuring Indigenous constellations from Cree, Ojibwe, and Dakota sky traditions, recognizing their value as both cultural heritage and ecological knowledge systems.³

When the Stars and the Land Fall Out of Rhythm

Here’s the challenge that climate change has introduced: the stars still move on their ancient, reliable schedule. But the land no longer always responds as expected. Migratory birds that once arrived when certain constellations appeared are now showing up earlier or later. Ice that once formed in predictable windows is forming weeks late, or not at all. Berry harvests, fish runs, animal migrations, all once timed by celestial cues accumulated over millennia are shifting. Indigenous knowledge holders across Canada describe this as a kind of dissonance: the sky remains faithful, but the land has changed.⁴

Long-Baseline Ecological Records

Far from being historical curiosity, Indigenous celestial knowledge systems are now being recognized by researchers as long-baseline ecological calendars —records of how nature behaved over centuries, encoded in story and ceremony. When an Elder observes that a particular star rising no longer predicts the arrival of certain geese, that observation represents a departure from a pattern that may have held true for hundreds of years. The Climate Atlas of Canada integrates Indigenous knowledge observations alongside western climate data, recognizing that both contribute meaningfully to understanding ecological change.⁵

Keeping the Knowledge Alive

Language revitalization and land-based education programs are helping ensure this knowledge reaches the future. From youth astronomy nights on-reserve to the integration of Indigenous sky stories in school curricula, there is growing recognition that these knowledge systems belong to what comes next, not only what came before. As Canada grapples with accelerating ecological change, the quiet precision of thousands of years of skyward observation offers something no satellite can fully replicate: a continuous record of the relationship between the cosmos and a living land.

Blog by Rye Karonhiowanen Barberstock

Image Credit: Dustin Bowdige, Unsplash

References

[1] Marshall, L., Marshall, M., Harris, P., & Bartlett, C. (2010). Muin and the Seven Bird Hunters: A Mi’kmaw Night Sky Story. Cape Breton University Press. See also: Integrative Science, CBU. (2009). Background on the Making of the Muin Video for IYA2009. http://www.integrativescience.ca/uploads/activities/BACKGROUND-making-video-Muin-Seven-Bird-Hunters-IYA-binder.pdf

[2] Price, M.W. (Various). Anishinaabe celestial knowledge. Wikwemikong First Nation. Referenced in: Royal Astronomical Society of Canada Indigenous Astronomy resources.

[3] Royal Astronomical Society of Canada. (2020). Indigenous Skies planisphere series. RASC. https://www.rasc.ca/indigenous-skies

[4] Neilson, H. (2022, December 11). The night sky over Mi’kmaki: A Q&A with astronomer Hilding Neilson. CBC News. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/hilding-neilson-indigenizing-astronomy-1.6679072

[5] Climate Atlas of Canada. (2024). Prairie Climate Centre, University of Winnipeg. https://climateatlas.ca/

The post Night Skies and Shifting Stars: How Indigenous Celestial Knowledge Tracks a Changing Climate appeared first on Indigenous Climate Hub.

https://indigenousclimatehub.ca/2026/04/night-skies-and-shifting-stars-how-indigenous-celestial-knowledge-tracks-a-changing-climate/

Climate Change

World ‘will not see significant return to coal’ in 2026 – despite Iran crisis

Published

1 day ago

April 28, 2026

Alice Rush

A much-discussed “return to coal” by some countries in the wake of the Iran war is likely to be far more limited than thought, amounting to a global rise of no more than 1.8% in coal power output this year.

The new analysis by thinktank Ember, shared exclusively with Carbon Brief, is a “worst-case” scenario and the reality could be even lower.

Separate data shows that, to date, there has been no “return to coal” in 2026.

While some countries, such as Japan, Pakistan and the Philippines, have responded to disrupted gas supplies with plans to increase their coal use, the new analysis shows that these actions will likely result in a “small rise” at most.

In fact, the decline of coal power in some countries and the potential for global electricity demand growth to slow down could mean coal generation continues falling this year.

Experts tell Carbon Brief that “the big story isn’t about a coal comeback” and any increase in coal use is “merely masking a longer-term structural decline”.

Instead, they say clean-energy projects are emerging as more appealing investments during the fossil-fuel driven energy crisis.

‘Return to coal’

The conflict following the US-Israeli attacks on Iran has disrupted global gas supplies, particularly after Iran blocked the strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint in the Persian Gulf.

A fifth of the world’s liquified natural gas (LNG) is normally shipped through this region, mainly supplying Asian countries. The blockage in this supply route means there is now less gas available and the remaining supplies are more expensive.

(Note that while the strait usually carries a fifth of LNG trade, this amounts to a much smaller share of global gas supplies overall, with most gas being moved via pipelines.)

With gas supplies constrained and prices remaining well above pre-conflict levels, at least eight countries in Asia and Europe have announced plans to increase their coal-fired electricity generation, or to review or delay plans to phase out coal power.

These nations include Japan, South Korea, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Thailand, Pakistan, Germany and Italy. Many of these nations are major users of coal power.

Such announcements have triggered a wave of reporting by global media outlets and analysts about a “return to coal”. Some have lamented a trend that is “incompatible with climate imperatives”, while others have even framed this as a positive development that illustrates coal’s return “from the dead”.

This mirrors a trend seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which many commentators said would lead to a surge in European coal use, due to disrupted gas supplies from Russia.

In fact, despite a spike in 2022, EU coal use has returned to its “terminal decline” and reached a historic low in 2025.

Gas to coal

So far, the evidence suggests that there has been no return to coal in 2026.

Analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air found that, in March, coal power generation remained flat globally and a fall in gas-fired generation was “offset by large increases in solar and wind power, rather than coal”.

However, as some governments only announced their coal plans towards the end of March, these figures may not capture their impact.

To get a sense of what that impact could be, Ember assessed the impact of coal policy changes and market responses across 16 countries, plus the 27 member states of the EU, which together accounted for 95% of total coal power generation in 2025.

For each country, the analysis considers a maximum “worst-case” scenario for switching from gas to coal power in the face of high gas prices.

It also considers the potential for any out-of-service coal power plants to return and for there to be delays in previously expected closures as a result of the response to the energy crisis.

Ember concludes that these factors could increase coal use by 175 terawatt hours (TWh), or 1.8%, in 2026 compared to 2025.

(This increase is measured relative to what would have happened without the energy crisis and does not account for wider trends in electricity generation from coal, which could see demand decline overall. Last year, coal power dropped by 63TWh, or 0.6%.)

Roughly three-quarters of the global effect in the Ember analysis is from potential gas-to-coal switching in China and the EU.

Other notable increases could come from switching in India and Indonesia and – to a lesser extent – from coal-policy shifts in South Korea, Bangladesh and Pakistan.

However, widely reported policy changes by Japan, Thailand and the Philippines are estimated to have very little, if any, impact on coal-power generation in 2026. The table below briefly summarises the potential for and reasoning behind the estimated increases in coal generation in each country in 2026.

Dave Jones, chief analyst at Ember, stresses that the 1.8% figure is an upper estimate, telling Carbon Brief:

“This would only happen if gas prices remained very high for the rest of the year and if there were sufficient coal stocks at power plants. The real risk of higher coal burn in 2026 comes not from coal units returning…but rather from pockets of gas-to-coal switching by existing power plants, primarily in China and the EU.”

Moreover, Jones says there is a real chance that global coal power could continue falling over the course of this year, partly driven by the energy crisis. He explains:

“If the energy crisis starts to dent electricity demand growth, coal generation – as well as gas generation – might actually be lower than before the crisis.”

‘Structural decline’

Energy experts tell Carbon Brief that Ember’s analysis aligns with their own assessments of the state of coal power.

Coal already had lower operation costs than gas before the energy crisis. This means that coal power plants were already being run at high levels in coal-dependent Asian economies that also use imported LNG to generate electricity. As such, they have limited potential to cut their need for LNG by further increasing coal generation.

Christine Shearer, who manages the global coal plant tracker at Global Energy Monitor, tells Carbon Brief that, in the EU, there is a shrinking pool of countries where gas-to-coal switching is possible:

“In Europe, coal fleets are smaller, older and increasingly uneconomic, while wind, solar and storage are becoming more competitive and widespread.”

In the context of the energy crisis, Italy has announced plans to delay its coal phaseout from 2025 to 2038. This plan, dismissed by the ECCO thinktank as “ineffective and costly”, would have minimal impact given coal only provides around 1% of the country’s power.

Notably, experts say that there is no evidence of the kind of structural “return to coal” that would spark concerns about countries’ climate goals. There have been no new coal plants announced in recent weeks.

Suzie Marshall, a policy advisor working on the “coal-to-clean transition” at E3G, tells Carbon Brief:

“We’re seeing possible delayed retirements and higher utilisation [of existing coal plants], as understandable emergency measures to keep the lights on, but not investment in new coal projects…Any short-term increase in coal consumption that we may see in response to this ongoing energy crisis is merely masking a longer-term structural decline.”

With cost-competitive solar, wind and batteries given a boost over fossil fuels by the energy crisis, there have been numerous announcements about new renewable energy projects since the start of war, including from India, Japan and Indonesia.

Shearer says that, rather than a “sustained coal comeback” in 2026, the Iran war “strengthens the case for renewables”. She says:

“If anything, a second gas shock in less than five years strengthens the case for renewables as the more secure long-term path.”

Jones says that Ember expects “little change in overall fossil generation, but with a small rise in coal and a fall in gas” in 2026. He adds:

“This would maximise gas-to-coal switching globally outside of the US, leaving no possibility for further switching in future years. Therefore, the big story isn’t about a coal comeback. It’s about how the relative economics of renewables, compared to fossil fuels, have been given a superboost by the crisis.”