We handpick and explain the most important stories at the intersection of climate, land, food and nature over the past fortnight.
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Key developments
High Seas Treaty milestone
OCEAN PROTECTION: The High Seas Treaty, which aims to “protect the world’s oceans and reverse damage to marine life”, will take effect next January after reaching a key milestone, BBC News reported. Morocco brought the global agreement, which was approved in 2023, to the threshold of 60 ratifications required for it to take effect. The broadcaster said: “Environmentalists heralded the milestone as a ‘monumental achievement’ and evidence that countries can work together for environmental protection.” UN chief António Guterres described it as a “lifeline for the ocean and humanity”, according to Al Jazeera.
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CLIMATE WEEK: Meanwhile, Chile and the UK joined a number of countries who have “committed to promoting ocean-based actions” in their respective national climate plans, Inside Climate News reported. Speaking at a New York Climate Week event, officials said they are considering many steps including phasing out offshore oil and gas drilling, decarbonising shipping and committing to marine ecosystem conservation. According to another Inside Climate News story, many Climate Week events are “centred around” regenerative agriculture – a method of farming that prioritises soil quality and ecosystem biodiversity. The term is now a “ubiquitous buzzword…increasingly deployed on marketing labels”, the outlet said.
OVERFISHING: Elsewhere, a “long-wrought” global agreement “aimed at reducing overfishing” took effect earlier this month, the Associated Press reported. The World Trade Organization agreement on fisheries subsidies entered into force after it was adopted by 112 countries. The AP noted that the agreement “will require countries to limit some of the $22bn in subsidies worldwide that encourage practices by fleets that deplete fish stocks and will create a ‘fish fund’ that can help developing countries implement it”. An article in the Conversation said the agreement is a “major milestone, but it’s only the beginning”.
‘Erratic’ water cycle
DELUGE TO DROUGHT: Almost two-thirds of the world’s rivers did not experience “normal” conditions in 2024, dealing with either too much or too little water, according to the World Meteorological Organization’s state of global water resources report. In its coverage, Al Jazeera said that “climate change is making the Earth’s water cycle increasingly erratic”. The report, the outlet noted, said that 2024 was the sixth year in a row with a “clear imbalance” in river basins. It was also the third consecutive year of widespread ice loss in every glacier region, the report said.
WATER IMPACTS: The report said that floods hindered agriculture in many regions in 2024, including impacting wheat harvests in Afghanistan and sweeping away almost 130,000 cows in west and central Africa. CNN’s coverage said the findings highlight “big trouble for economies and societies” dealing with the impacts of a less-predictable water cycle.. Last year was the hottest on record, with many regions “grappl[ing] with a dearth of water”, the outlet noted. Other regions, however, experienced “more floods than in other years”, a lead author on the report, Prof Stefan Uhlenbrook, told CNN. He added that some of these floods caused billions of dollars in damage.
FLOOD AFTERMATH: Meanwhile, major floods in Pakistan’s Punjab province have “wreaked havoc” on agriculture, impacting more than half a million hectares of farming land, according to the Nation. The Pakistani newspaper reported that the floods, covered in last month’s Cropped, “devastat[ed]” crops including cotton, rice, sugarcane and maize. Around 6% of Punjab’s farmland was damaged by recent floods, the newspaper said. Reuters reported that at least 220,000 hectares of rice fields flooded from the deluge between August and September. In India’s Punjab state, farmers are also dealing with the impacts of the “worst floods in four decades”, Al Jazeera said.
News and views
CASH FOR NATURE: The UK spent a record £800m on “nature protection and restoration” as part of climate aid spending last year, according to government figures obtained by Carbon Brief. The figures suggested that the country is on track to achieve its five-year pledge to provide £3bn in nature-related funds for developing countries by 2026. Meanwhile, a report from Wildlife and Countryside Link found that 38% of UK waters are in protected areas, but just 6% of land is – “far short” of the target to protect 30% of the country’s land and sea by 2030, the report said.
DEFORESTATION DELAYS: The European Commission has proposed a further one-year delay to the implementation of its anti-deforestation law, Reuters reported. The law, which is currently due to take effect this December, was already postponed by one year in late 2024. Reuters said that the commission cited concerns about IT systems. The outlet noted that both the European parliament and a majority of EU member states “must approve the delay”.
GROWING FOOD: This year looks set to see record-high production of corn, wheat, soya beans and rice, according to analysis by data scientist Dr Hannah Ritchie on her Substack, Sustainability by numbers. Looking at agricultural projections from the US Department of Agriculture, Ritchie noted that decades of steady production increases in most crops, “with the exception of sorghum and millet”, are expected to continue. Elsewhere, Australia’s ABC News reported on a new climate risk assessment that identified future farming impacts, including “shifting growing seasons…and damage to crops and livestock from extreme heat”.
VIOLENCE CONTINUES: A new Global Witness report found that 146 land and environmental defenders were killed or disappeared worldwide in 2024, Dialogue Earth reported. About 82% of those cases occurred in Latin America. Although last year had fewer murders compared to 2023, an author told the outlet that “criminalisation and other types of non-lethal attacks are on the rise”. Folha de São Paulo noted that Colombia topped the world ranking for the third consecutive year with 48 killings. The newspaper added that Indigenous peoples were victims of one-third of the attacks.
SUSTAINABLE COCOA: Increasing the cover of trees providing shade for cocoa plantations to 30% could sequester 307m tonnes of CO2-equivalent in west Africa, according to new research covered by Carbon Brief. That figure is enough to counterbalance current cocoa-related emissions in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the study notes.
COP30 INCOMING: The Brazilian government opened a funding programme worth R$12bn (£1.7bn) for “rural producers and cooperatives affected by climate events” between June 2020 and 2025, ((o))eco reported. Low rainfall in 2023 and 2024 “harmed agricultural production, especially soya beans”, the outlet noted. Elsewhere, InfoAmazonia found that deforestation and agricultural expansion means that only seven countries in the world emit more carbon than the Brazilian Amazon. Bloomberg reported that the “top US diplomat” in Brazil is due to visit COP30 host city Belém this week to discuss “deforestation and organised crime in the region”.
BIG MEAT IS WATCHING: An organisation funded by the US meat and dairy industry has “engaged in intrusive surveillance of animal rights groups”, according to DeSmog. The outlet found that the Animal Agriculture Alliance created a database of 2,400 people “linked to animal welfare and environmental groups” and “shared information with livestock companies about the romantic partners and even biological ties” of people in these groups. The organisation told DeSmog: “The Alliance shares relevant information and resources that are helpful to the food community, but does not seek to influence or direct the actions of any organisation or law enforcement.”
Spotlight
Family food at COP30
This week, Carbon Brief’s food, land and nature reporter, Yanine Quiroz, covers an initiative to serve food from the rainforest at the upcoming COP30 in November in Belém, Brazil.
Quiroz attended a press trip to Belém in September, organised by the Nature Conservancy Brazil, the Climate and Society Institute and Nature4Climate.
On the table sit bowls of cocoa, açaí, jatobá, chicory, Vitória-régia jelly and other foods typical of the Brazilian Amazon.
An exhibition of food products from the Brazilian Amazon at the Santa Chicória restaurant in Belém. Credit: Yanine Quiroz
These foods are just a handful of the many grown in Pará by family farmers, quilombola communities, women and young people, who make up the Bragantina Network.
This network, supported by the civil-society organisation Regenera Institute and philanthropic organisation Climate and Society Institute (iCS), has pushed for a commitment from Brazil that 30% of the food served at COP30 will be sourced from family farming, agroecology and Indigenous peoples.
That would inject at least $3.3m Brazilian reals (£463,000) into family farming in Pará, according to Mauricio Alcântara, co-founder of Regenera Institute. He told Carbon Brief:
“I think this is a great achievement for family farmers.”
Alcântara said that at climate COPs, food is often “very poor and disconnected from the local culture”. The Belém summit aims to showcase the great crop diversity of Brazil’s Amazon and the sustainable practices supported by the federal government, he added.
A history of resistance
A 2024 report from Escholas Institute found that 80% of the food that reaches Belém comes from other states in Brazil, even though Pará is located in the “most biodiverse biome in the world”, Alcântara said.
That is why the Bragantina Network helps agroecological producers in Pará gain access to markets through promoting public policies. One such example is the National School Feeding Programme, which feeds 45 million children on a daily basis, Pedro Zanetti, a specialist in land-use transition, food systems and bioeconomy at iCS, told the press.
Family farmers Maria Lucia Reis, Vincenzino Ghirardi, Nazaré Ghirardi and Maria do Socorro Reis showing Brazilian Amazon fruits at the headquarters of the Bragantina Network in Belém. Credit: Yanine Quiroz
The Bragantina Network emerged in the 1990s as a movement aimed at rescuing native Amazonian seeds and products, such as cassava and manioc, that had largely disappeared from agricultural practices and diets, Maria de Nazaré Ghirardi, a family farmer and technical advisor for the Bragantina Network, said.
“When we talk about the COP, in addition to generating income for many producers, it is also about showing that this food has a history. A history of climate action, community resilience, women’s empowerment and traditional communities.”
He also said that after COP30, the Bragantina Network will seek the building of public infrastructure to store the foods produced by family farms to supply the metropolitan region of Pará through public policies and the private market.
Watch, read, listen
‘GOLD RUSH’: A Mongabay video looked at the impact of gold mining on local communities, water quality and forests in the Republic of the Congo.
INDIA ISLAND ISSUES: Timereported on howIndia’s biodiverse Great Nicobar island is threatened by “mega” development projects put forward by the government.
NEW BLEND: The New York Times examined whether hybrid grape varieties can “solve the climate change dilemma for winemakers”.
AGRI IMPACTS: Journalist Michael Grunwald discussed his new book, “We are eating the Earth: The race to fix our food system” on US late-night talk programme, the Daily Show.
New science
India’s government-incentivised “zero-budget natural farming” programme more than doubled farmers’ profits, improved “bird biodiversity outcomes” and maintained similar crop yields | Nature Ecology & Evolution
Annual CO2 emissions from forest and shrub fires in China decreased over 2001-22, but increased for cropland fires, especially in the country’s north-east | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Watching documentaries can increase public interest in plant-based diets in the US, according to an analysis of search queries linked to six documentaries and consumption data | Nature Food
In Kenya’s Laikipia County where temperatures can reach as high as 30 degrees Celsius, a local building technology is helping homes stay cooler while supporting education, creating jobs and improving the livelihoods and resilience of community residents, Climate Home News found on a visit to the region.
Situated in a semi-arid region, houses in Laikipia are mostly built with wood or cement blocks with corrugated iron sheets for roofing. This building method usually leaves the insides of homes scorching hot – and as global warming accelerates, the heat is becoming unbearable.
Peter Muthui, principal of Mukima Secondary School in Laikipia County, lived in these harsh conditions until 2023, when the Laikipia Integrated Housing Project began in his community.
The project uses compressed earth block (CEB) technology, drawing on traditional building methods and local materials – including soil, timber, grass and cow dung – to keep buildings cool in the highland climate. The thick earth walls provide insulation against the heat.
Peter Muthui, principal of Mukima Secondary School in Laikipia County, stands in front of classroom blocks built with compressed earth blocks (Photo: Vivian Chime)
Peter Muthui, principal of Mukima Secondary School in Laikipia County, stands in front of classroom blocks built with compressed earth blocks (Photo: Vivian Chime)
“Especially around the months of September all the way to December, it is very, very hot [in Laikipia], but as you might have noticed, my house is very cool even during the heat,” Muthui told Climate Home News.
His school has also deployed the technology for classrooms and boarding hostels to ensure students can carry on studying during the hottest seasons of the year. This way, they are protected from severe conditions and school closures can be avoided. In South Sudan, dozens of students collapsed from heat stroke in the capital Juba earlier this year, causing the country to shutter schools for weeks.
COP30 sees first action call on sustainable, affordable housing
The buildings and construction sector accounts for 37% of global emissions, making it the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, according to the UN Environment Programme (UNEP). While calls to decarbonise the sector have grown, meaningful action to cut emissions has remained limited.
At COP28 in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates and Canada launched the Cement and Concrete Breakthrough Initiative to speed up investment in the technologies, policies and tools needed to put the cement and concrete industry on a net zero-emissions path by 2050.
Canada’s innovation minister, François-Philippe Champagne, said the initiative aimed to build a competitive “green cement and concrete industry” which creates jobs while building a cleaner future.
Coordinated by UNEP’s Global Alliance for Buildings and Construction, the council has urged countries to embed climate considerations into affordable housing from the outset, “ensuring the drive to deliver adequate homes for social inclusion goes hand in hand with minimising whole-life emissions and environmental impacts”.
Homes built with compressed earth blocks in Laikipia (Photo: Julián Reingold)
Homes built with compressed earth blocks in Laikipia (Photo: Julián Reingold)
With buildings responsible for 34% of energy-related emissions and 32% of global energy demand, and 2.8 billion people living in inadequate housing, the ICBC stressed that “affordable, adequate, resource-efficient, low-carbon, climate-resilient and durable housing is essential to a just transition, the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals and the effective implementation of the Paris Agreement”.
Compressed earth offers local, green alternative
By using locally sourced materials, and just a little bit of cement, the compressed earth technology is helping residents in Kenya’s Laikipia region to build affordable, climate-smart homes that reduce emissions and environmental impacts while creating economic opportunities for local residents, said Dacan Aballa, construction manager at Habitat for Humanity International, the project’s developers.
Aballa said carbon emissions in the construction sector occur all through the lifecycle, from material extraction, processing and transportation to usage and end of life. However, by switching to compressed earth blocks, residents can source materials available in their environment, avoiding nearly all of that embedded carbon pollution.
According to the World Economic Forum (WEF), global cement manufacturing is responsible for about 8% of total CO2 emissions, and the current trajectory would see emissions from the sector soar to 3.8 billion tonnes per year by 2050 – a level that, compared to countries, would place the cement industry as one of the world’s top three or four emitters alongside the US and China.
Comparing compressed earth blocks and conventional materials in terms of carbon emissions, Aballa said that by using soil native to the area, the process avoids the fossil fuels that would normally have been used for to produce and transport building materials, slashing carbon and nitrogen dioxide emissions.
The local building technology also helps save on energy that would have been used for cooling these houses as well as keeping them warm during colder periods, Aballa explained.
Justin Atemi, water and sanitation officer at Habitat for Humanity, said the brick-making technique helps reduce deforestation too. This is because the blocks are left to air dry under the sun for 21 days – as opposed to conventional fired-clay blocks that use wood as fuel for kilns – and are then ready for use.
Women walk passed houses in the village of Kangimi, Kaduna State, Nigeria (Photo: Sadiq Mustapha)
Traditional knowledge becomes adaptation mechanism
Africa’s red clay soil was long used as a building material for homes, before cement blocks and concrete became common. However, the method never fully disappeared. Now, as climate change brings higher temperatures, this traditional building approach is gaining renewed attention, especially in low-income communities in arid and semi-arid regions struggling to cope with extreme heat.
From Kenya’s highlands to Senegal’s Sahelian cities, compressed earth construction is being repurposed as a low-cost, eco-friendly option for homes, schools, hospitals – and even multi-storey buildings.
Senegal’s Goethe-Institut in Dakar was constructed primarily using compressed earth blocks. In Mali, the Bamako medical school, which was built with unfired mud bricks, stays cool even during the hottest weather.
And more recently, in Nigeria’s cultural city of Benin, the just-finished Museum of West African Art (MOWA) was built using “rammed earth” architecture – a similar technology that compresses moist soil into wooden frames to form solid walls – making it one of the largest such structures in Africa.
David Sathuluri is a Research Associate and Dr. Marco Tedesco is a Lamont Research Professor at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University.
As climate scientists warn that we are approaching irreversible tipping points in the Earth’s climate system, paradoxically the very technologies being deployed to detect these tipping points – often based on AI – are exacerbating the problem, via acceleration of the associated energy consumption.
The UK’s much-celebrated £81-million ($109-million) Forecasting Tipping Points programme involving 27 teams, led by the Advanced Research + Invention Agency (ARIA), represents a contemporary faith in technological salvation – yet it embodies a profound contradiction. The ARIA programme explicitly aims to “harness the laws of physics and artificial intelligence to pick up subtle early warning signs of tipping” through advanced modelling.
We are deploying massive computational infrastructure to warn us of climate collapse while these same systems consume the energy and water resources needed to prevent or mitigate it. We are simultaneously investing in computationally intensive AI systems to monitor whether we will cross irreversible climate tipping points, even as these same AI systems could fuel that transition.
The computational cost of monitoring
Training a single large language model like GPT-3 consumed approximately 1,287 megawatt-hours of electricity, resulting in 552 metric tons of carbon dioxide – equivalent to driving 123 gasoline-powered cars for a year, according to a recent study.
GPT-4 required roughly 50 times more electricity. As the computational power needed for AI continues to double approximately every 100 days, the energy footprint of these systems is not static but is exponentially accelerating.
And the environmental consequences of AI models extend far beyond electricity usage. Besides massive amounts of electricity (much of which is still fossil-fuel-based), such systems require advanced cooling that consumes enormous quantities of water, and sophisticated infrastructure that must be manufactured, transported, and deployed globally.
The water-energy nexus in climate-vulnerable regions
A single data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of drinking water per day – sufficient to supply thousands of households or farms. In the Phoenix area of the US alone, more than 58 data centers consume an estimated 170 million gallons of drinking water daily for cooling.
The geographical distribution of this infrastructure matters profoundly as data centers requiring high rates of mechanical cooling are disproportionately located in water-stressed and socioeconomically vulnerable regions, particularly in Asia-Pacific and Africa.
At the same time, we are deploying AI-intensive early warning systems to monitor climate tipping points in regions like Greenland, the Arctic, and the Atlantic circulation system – regions already experiencing catastrophic climate impacts. They represent thresholds that, once crossed, could trigger irreversible changes within decades, scientists have warned.
Yet computational models and AI-driven early warning systems operate according to different temporal logics. They promise to provide warnings that enable future action, but they consume energy – and therefore contribute to emissions – in the present.
This is not merely a technical problem to be solved with renewable energy deployment; it reflects a fundamental misalignment between the urgency of climate tipping points and the gradualist assumptions embedded in technological solutions.
The carbon budget concept reveals that there is a cumulative effect on how emissions impact on temperature rise, with significant lags between atmospheric concentration and temperature impact. Every megawatt-hour consumed by AI systems training on climate models today directly reduces the available carbon budget for tomorrow – including the carbon budget available for the energy transition itself.
The governance void
The deeper issue is that governance frameworks for AI development have completely decoupled from carbon budgets and tipping point timescales. UK AI regulation focuses on how much computing power AI systems use, but it does not require developers to ask: is this AI’s carbon footprint small enough to fit within our carbon budget for preventing climate tipping points?
There is no mechanism requiring that AI infrastructure deployment decisions account for the specific carbon budgets associated with preventing different categories of tipping points.
Meanwhile, the energy transition itself – renewable capacity expansion, grid modernization, electrification of transport – requires computation and data management. If we allow unconstrained AI expansion, we risk the perverse outcome in which computing infrastructure consumes the surplus renewable energy that could otherwise accelerate decarbonization, rather than enabling it.
With global consensus over climate action faltering on the accord’s 10th anniversary, experts say “coalitions of the willing” should move faster and with more ambition
Rising demand in Southeast Asia and India is expected to prevent coal use from falling significantly this decade, the International Energy Agency predicts
What would it mean to resolve the paradox?
Resolving this paradox requires, for example, moving beyond the assumption that technological solutions can be determined in isolation from carbon constraints. It demands several interventions:
First, any AI-driven climate monitoring system must operate within an explicitly defined carbon budget that directly reflects the tipping-point timescale it aims to detect. If we are attempting to provide warnings about tipping points that could be triggered within 10-20 years, the AI system’s carbon footprint must be evaluated against a corresponding carbon budget for that period.
Second, governance frameworks for AI development must explicitly incorporate climate-tipping point science, establishing threshold restrictions on computational intensity in relation to carbon budgets and renewable energy availability. This is not primarily a “sustainability” question; it is a justice and efficacy question.
Third, alternative models must be prioritized over the current trajectory toward ever-larger models. These should include approaches that integrate human expertise with AI in time-sensitive scenarios, carbon-aware model training, and using specialized processors matched to specific computational tasks rather than relying on universal energy-intensive systems.
The deeper critique
The fundamental issue is that the energy-system tipping point paradox reflects a broader crisis in how wealthy nations approach climate governance. We have faith that innovation and science can solve fundamental contradictions, rather than confronting the structural need to constrain certain forms of energy consumption and wealth accumulation. We would rather invest £81 million in computational systems to detect tipping points than make the political decisions required to prevent them.
The positive tipping point for energy transition exists – renewable energy is now cheaper than fossil fuels, and deployment rates are accelerating. What we lack is not technological capacity but political will to rapidly decarbonize, as well as community participation.
Deploying energy-intensive AI systems to monitor tipping points while simultaneously failing to deploy available renewable energy represents a kind of technological distraction from the actual political choices required.
The paradox is thus also a warning: in the time remaining before irreversible tipping points are triggered, we must choose between building ever-more sophisticated systems to monitor climate collapse or deploying available resources – capital, energy, expertise, political attention – toward allaying the threat.