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Silver entered 2026 with strong momentum. Prices surged over the past year. Industrial users adjusted to rising costs. Investors returned to the market. At the same time, solar manufacturers began cutting silver use to save money.

Even with a higher supply, the global market stayed in deficit for the sixth straight year. In short, silver’s story in 2026 is one of tight supply, shifting demand, and rising importance.

Silver Prices Rise as Investors Return

Silver prices recently stayed above $78 per ounce, helped by geopolitical tensions and light trading in Asia. After a volatile stretch, the metal was on track for its first weekly gain in four weeks.

silver prices

J.P. Morgan projects silver could average $81 per ounce in 2026, more than double its 2025 average. Yet the forecast depends on global demand and economic conditions. In 2025, silver jumped by over 130%. Industrial demand and tariff uncertainty fueled the rally. Later, U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts boosted investor interest.

silver prices
Source: J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, $/oz, quarterly and annual averages.

However, high prices bring challenges. Investors benefit, but industrial users face rising costs. Prolonged price pressure could reduce demand and cause more volatility.

Solar Manufacturers Cut Usage as Costs Climb

One of the most significant shifts in 2026 comes from the solar sector. According to BloombergNEF, solar manufacturers—the largest industrial consumers of silver—are accelerating efforts to reduce silver intensity in photovoltaic (PV) modules.

Silver demand from PV installations is expected to fall to roughly 194 million ounces, or about 6,028 metric tons, this year, marking a 7% year-on-year decline. This drop comes even as global solar capacity continues to expand by around 15%.

Simply put, as manufacturers are using less silver per cell, total silver demand from the sector is projected to decline.

Rising costs explain the shift. Silver now accounts for an estimated 17–29% of PV module costs per watt, up sharply from just 3% in 2023. As prices climbed toward and even above $80 per ounce, manufacturers intensified substitution efforts.

silver demand

Chinese Solar Makers Lead the Silver Substitution Push

Chinese producers are leading the transition. Longi Green Energy Technology Co. announced plans to replace silver with base metals such as copper in its back-contact cells, with mass production expected in the second quarter of 2026. Similarly, Jinko Solar Co. signaled large-scale copper-based panel production, while Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co. has already launched silver-free solar cells.

However, substitution remains technically challenging. Copper can increase assembly costs and raise reliability concerns. Moreover, certain technologies, such as TOPCon cells, are less compatible with alternative metals due to high-temperature fabrication processes. As a result, silver continues to play a central role in high-efficiency solar designs, even as overall usage declines.

So, What’s Fueling Silver Demand in 2026?

Industrial Segments

Although solar demand softens, other industrial segments continue to support silver consumption. The Silver Institute highlighted strong structural growth in data centers, artificial intelligence infrastructure, and the automotive sector. This is because it conducts electricity better than almost any other metal. As electrification and digital growth continue, these sectors help support steady industrial demand.

silver demand

Investment Demand

On the other hand, investment demand is rising. Global physical investment is forecast to increase about 20% to 227 million ounces, reaching a three-year high. Western investors are returning after several weak years, supported by strong prices and economic uncertainty. At the same time, investment demand in India remains strong, helped by positive sentiment and recent gains.

Supply Growth Fails to Close the Gap

On the supply side, total global output is projected to increase 1.5% in 2026, reaching a decade high of 1.05 billion ounces. Mine production is expected to rise modestly to around 820 million ounces, supported by stronger output from existing operations and recently commissioned projects.

  • Growth is anticipated in Mexico’s primary silver mines and at China Gold International’s Jiama polymetallic mine.
  • In Canada, new and expanding projects such as Hecla’s Keno Hill and New Gold’s New Afton are contributing additional supply.
  • By-product silver from gold mines is also expected to increase, with gains from operations including Barrick’s Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic and Gold Fields’ Salares Norte in Chile.

Recycling is expected to climb 7%, surpassing 200 million ounces for the first time since 2012. High prices encourage consumers to sell scrap, especially silverware.

Even so, the market remains undersupplied. The Silver Institute forecasts a 67 million-ounce deficit in 2026. As a result, the market relies on stored silver reserves, adding pressure to an already tight supply.

BHP and Wheaton Strike a Record Silver Deal

Corporate activity reflects silver’s strength. BHP entered a long-term streaming agreement with Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. BHP received $4.3 billion upfront in exchange for silver linked to its share of production at the Antamina mine in Peru.

This deal, the largest streaming transaction by upfront payment, lets BHP monetize silver as a by-product while keeping full exposure to copper, zinc, and lead. It doesn’t affect BHP’s joint venture rights or customer contracts.

Strategically, the deal shows how miners turn non-core metals into cash to strengthen balance sheets and fund growth projects.

2030 Outlook: Silver Demand and Supply

A research paper published recently looked at how much silver the solar industry may require by 2030. It also considered demand from other industries that use silver, such as electronics and automotive.

The findings raise concerns.

  • By 2030, total silver demand could reach 48,000 to 54,000 tons per year. However, supply may only cover 62% to 70% of that need. In other words, the world could face a serious silver shortage.

Solar is expected to be the fastest-growing source of demand. The industry alone may require 10,000 to 14,000 tons per year, which could account for 29% to 41% of total supply. At the same time, other industries will continue to use large amounts of silver. Even with slower growth, demand from these sectors could still reach 38,000 to 40,000 tons per year by 2030.

silver demand supply forecast
Source: Science Direct

In conclusion, the silver market continues to run in deficit. As long as supply lags total demand, prices may stay high. At the same time, higher prices could speed up substitution and increase volatility.

The post Silver in 2026 and Beyond: Rising Prices, Solar Substitution, and a Market Still in Deficit appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Where should an SME start with a carbon action plan?

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More and more small and medium-sized businesses are hearing the same question from their larger customers: What is your carbon footprint? That question now travels down entire supply chains, and it arrives next to tender requirements, certification criteria, and rising customer expectations.

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Carbon Footprint

Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets

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The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.

The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.

This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.

The two definitions, in plain English

Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.

Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.

The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.

What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says

The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).

For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.

For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.

A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.

When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)

Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:

  • The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
  • The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
  • The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
  • It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.

The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.

When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.

The procurement and supplier engagement question

Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.

To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.

The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.

Choosing the right tool for the right target

A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.

The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.

If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.

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Carbon Footprint

Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide

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Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.

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