The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), launched by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), plays a major role in helping airlines offset their emissions and meet climate goals.
International air travel is bouncing back after the pandemic. This drives a surge in demand for carbon credits under CORSIA. A new report by Allied Offsets forecasts strong growth in both demand and prices of eligible carbon credits from 2025 through 2035.
This article explores the latest trends, price scenarios, and what this means for airlines, project developers, and the broader voluntary carbon market.
Rising Demand: Airlines Set to Purchase More Credits
Industry estimates say that demand for CORSIA-eligible carbon credits will hit 101 to 148 million tonnes (MtCO₂e) during Phase I (2024–2026). Demand will rise quickly in Phase II (2027–2035).
Cumulative needs are expected to be between 502 and 1,299 MtCO₂e. This will depend on how much international air traffic grows and how CORSIA expands its coverage.
This big increase comes from the rebound in international air travel and the start of Phase II in 2027. During this phase, most ICAO member countries must take part.
By 2035, demand might exceed 1 billion tonnes in high-growth scenarios. That’s about the same as the yearly emissions of a major industrialized country.
To summarize projected cumulative demand:
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Phase I (2024–2026): 101–148 MtCO₂e
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Phase II (2027–2035): 502–1,299 MtCO₂e
This growth presents both challenges and opportunities. Airlines need enough credits to comply with regulations. At the same time, project developers and suppliers face pressure to increase the verified supply of eligible credits.
Price Outlook: A Wide Range with Upward Pressure
The report outlines three price scenarios for carbon credits based on different market dynamics:
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Low Scenario: Prices start at $14/tonne in a tight supply scenario and grow slowly to $25/tonne in under supply scenario.
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Medium Scenario: Prices rise from $15/tonne to $29/tonne.
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High Scenario: Prices climb sharply from $16/tonne to $34/tonne.

Even in the conservative case, prices show modest growth. But in the high-demand scenario, prices could grow over the next decade.
On the other hand, MSCI outlines a range of price scenarios for CORSIA-eligible carbon credits as follows:
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Phase I (2024–2026): $18–$51 per tonne
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Phase II (2027–2035): $27–$91 per tonne (by 2033–2035)

This price rise shows that airlines face more pressure to secure high-quality credits. This is especially true as more projects focus on long-term removal instead of just temporary avoidance.
High prices might lead some airlines to invest in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) or insets. These options help reduce emissions in their operations.
Supply Gaps and Quality Filters
CORSIA doesn’t allow just any carbon credit. ICAO has strict rules for what qualifies — including restrictions on project start dates, crediting periods, and approved methodologies. Only credits from approved programs (like Verra, Gold Standard, and ART TREES) that meet these standards are eligible.
The report estimates that:
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Only about 543 MtCO₂e of eligible credits will be issued by 2027.

Supply is projected to lag behind demand. Reports suggest possible deficits of 12–43 MtCO₂e in Phase I. Phase II may face even larger shortfalls. This is likely if stricter quality filters are used. These filters include co-benefits, permanence, and additionality. The exact numbers for filtered supply aren’t given, but these criteria would greatly lower the usable pool.

Currently, most eligible supply comes from avoided deforestation (REDD+) and renewable energy projects. As demand increases and quality standards get stricter, the market will likely move toward lasting carbon removal solutions. This includes methods like reforestation, biochar, and direct air capture (DAC).
Regional Insights: Where Supply Comes From
The current credit supply under CORSIA is heavily concentrated in a few countries:
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India, China, and Brazil together account for over 50% of the available supply.
Africa has fewer CORSIA-eligible credits now. However, it is expected to grow. This growth will focus on nature-based solutions, such as afforestation and cookstove projects.
This geographic concentration means that any changes in policy, political stability, or project approvals in key countries could disrupt supply. For example, if India were to change its rules on carbon credit exports — as some officials have suggested — global supply could shrink quickly.
Interest is growing in boosting credit generation in Southeast Asia and Latin America. Many areas there have good land for reforestation and carbon farming.
Market Trends and Implications for Airlines
CORSIA credits are part of the larger voluntary carbon market. This market has attracted a lot of interest from companies and governments. According to MSCI report, voluntary carbon markets could reach $250 billion annually by 2050.

But today’s CORSIA credits are selling for far less than the cost of removing CO₂ using high-tech methods like DAC, which can exceed $300 per tonne. This price gap has raised questions about credit quality and how buyers can demonstrate real climate impact.
SEE MORE: CORSIA Credits Soaring Costs: How They Are Reshaping Aviation’s Future
Some key trends include:
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Airlines such as Delta, United, and Lufthansa are now mixing credit purchases with investments in SAF. They also support offsets from reforestation or engineered removals.
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Programs like SBTi (Science-Based Targets initiative) encourage firms to reduce emissions. They also promote high-quality removals instead of bulk offsetting.
For airlines, this means they may need to:
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Budget more for compliance over time
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Diversify carbon offset portfolios
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Communicate clearly about the credibility of their offsets
The Bigger Picture: What Comes Next
The Allied Offsets report shows that corporate buyers, like airlines, play a key role in global carbon markets. Their large, long-term offtake agreements — such as Microsoft’s 18 MtCO₂e deal with Rubicon Carbon — are shaping demand signals for the next decade.
ICAO plans to tighten CORSIA rules in future reviews. This may mean more removals and limits on older avoidance projects. This could further reduce supply and raise prices.
Policymakers can boost support for in-sector measures. This includes increasing SAF production and encouraging new removal technologies.
Airlines face challenges now. They must deal with rising prices, new rules, and increased scrutiny on carbon offsetting. In the long run, using durable carbon removals could change aviation and the climate finance system.
CORSIA is entering a critical phase. Demand is set to rise sharply. Meanwhile, supply is tightening due to stricter quality controls. As the report shows, the window to build a balanced, credible carbon market is narrowing. The next few years will shape the cost and credibility of airline decarbonization for decades to come.
The post CORSIA Carbon Credit Prices, Demand, and Supply: What the Future Holds appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets
The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.
The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.
This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.
The two definitions, in plain English
Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.
Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.
The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.
What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says
The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).
For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.
For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.
A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.
When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)
Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:
- The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
- The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
- The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
- It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.
The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.
When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.
The procurement and supplier engagement question
Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.
To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.
The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.
Choosing the right tool for the right target
A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.
The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.
If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.
Carbon Footprint
Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide
Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.
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Carbon Footprint
Deforestation in Malawi: causes and solutions
Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?
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