Following a dramatic fire and evacuation yesterday afternoon, negotiations restarted and continued into the night, with the COP30 presidency putting out a series of draft texts, including the main “Mutirão” cover decision at 3am local time. What’s most contentious is what’s not in them.
There are no roadmaps for transitioning away from fossil fuels or for halting deforestation, as called for by Brazil’s president and around half of countries.
Because of these omissions and concerns on finance, a group of 29 countries – from Europe, Latin America and small islands – wrote a joint letter to the Brazilian COP presidency expressing their “deep concern” over what they call “a take it or leave it” proposal.
“The legacy of the Presidency in making COP30 a milestone moment will depend on the quality – rather than the speed – of the outcome,” they wrote, adding “a weak text would be remembered as a missed and regrettable opportunity and would undermine the credibility of the process, of the Presidency and of the [climate] regime itself”.
They added that they are “concerned by emerging narratives suggesting that ambitious countries are slowing progress” and “the challenge arises when a package that omits essential elements is presented with the expectation of unconditional acceptance, reflecting only what is acceptable to a limited few”.
They call for the Presidency to submit a revised proposal and not ask them to “accept only what the least ambitious are willing to allow”. EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said the text was “no way close to the ambition we need on mitigation” and “we are disappointed with the text currently on the table”.
All governments are scheduled to gather for a plenary meeting around 10 or 11am, where fireworks are likely.
Vague goal to triple adaptation finance included
The draft text does include a “call for efforts” for developed countries to triple adaptation finance compared to 2025 levels by 2030 and “urges” developed countries to “increase the trajectory” of their adaptation finance.
But it has no numbers attached to it and the EU’s climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said that that the EU is “willing to be ambitious on adaptation, but we would like to make clear that any language on finance should squarely be within the commitment reached last year on the [New Collective Quantified Goal on finance agreed at COP29]”.
The tripling idea emanated from the Least Developed Countries in Bonn in June and was later picked up by other developing countries. With indicators for the Global Goal on Adaptation being negotiated in a separate room, developing countries have argued that deciding on metrics to measure adaptation has little point if developed countries are not going to properly fund it.
“Calls” is the same verb used in the COP26 pledge – which is off track – for developed countries to double adaptation finance by 2025. “Calls” is one of the softer verbs used in climate talks, weaker than “instructs”, “urges”, “invites” or “encourages”.
And the baseline – and lack of a quantitative target – will likely raise concerns. Developing countries want a tripling from the amount of adaptation finance developed countries should be providing in 2025, which would be an increase from at least $40bn to $120bn a year.
If calculated from actual 2025 adaptation finance levels, analysis by CARE and Oxfam suggests that is likely to be around $25 billion, though exact figures will not be available until 2027. Using that baseline rather than the 2025 goal could shave about $50 billion a year off what developing countries can expect in 2030, which will not meet rapidly rising needs amid worsening droughts, floods, storms and heatwaves.
Tricky issues of trade, finance and emissions cuts covered
The ‘Mutirao’ text covers the contentious issues which competing negotiating blocks tried, and failed, to get on the COP agenda. It proposes outcomes including new initiatives, talks and calls – but nothing concrete and significant.
On emissions-cutting ambition – a small island and EU priority – the text proposes the creation of a “Global Implementation Accelerator” and a “Belem Mission to 1.5” – both aimed at helping countries improve their climate action. Governments are also “encourage[d]” to strengthen their existing NDC climate plans “at any time with a view to
enhancing its level of ambition”.
On finance – a developing country priority – the text “decides” to scale up finance for developing countries and “calls for enhanced efforts” to meet the COP29 promise to triple annual outflows of funds like the Green Climate Fund. And it promises a “roundtable” of senior ministers on how they’re meeting the finance goal decided at COP29.
On the nexus between trade and climate – an emerging economy priority to discuss – it requests three annual dialogues at the June Bonn sessions. An African trade negotiator told Climate Home News it was “a start” but disappointing that there is not a “full COP item on it”. “It’s like they want to kill it but in a polite way,” the negotiator said.
The post COP30 Bulletin Day 11: Countries revolt as new text leaves out fossil fuel roadmap appeared first on Climate Home News.
COP30 Bulletin Day 11: Countries revolt as new text leaves out fossil fuel transition roadmap
The ongoing “super El Niño” is likely to peak at the end of 2026 and push average global temperatures to record levels next year.
That is according to Carbon Brief’s latest “state of the climate” update, which analyses El Niño forecasts from more than a dozen climate models, as well as six global temperature datasets.
Dr Zeke Hausfather, Carbon Brief’s climate science contributor, described this year’s El Niño as “simply staggering” when answering questions from CB+ members during a CB Connect “ask me anything” session.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific that releases heat from the ocean into the atmosphere and temporarily boosts global temperatures.
This year’s El Niño event – which has been underway since June – has already broken a number of records and reshaped the world’s weather, fuelling fires in Indonesia and “super typhoons” in the west Pacific.
The strength of an El Niño is tracked using the “Niño3.4 anomaly”, which is a measure of how much warmer sea surface temperatures are than average in a section of the central Pacific.
Analysis of more than 600 forecasts from 14 different climate models by Hausfather for Carbon Brief’s “state of the climate” update shows how models project this year’s El Niño will peak with an anomaly of around 4C. This would be more than a degree above the previous record in 2015-16.
Writing on CB Connect on 5 November, Hausfather wrote:
“This El Niño event is developing so quickly and is reaching sea surface temperatures so warm that it’s simply staggering. We haven’t seen anything like this in the historical record and it may end up being the strongest El Niño event in the past millennium.”
This year’s El Niño has already chalked up a number of milestones.
On 18 September, the daily anomaly in the Niño3.4 region broke the satellite-era record set in 2015 when it reached 3.11C.
Meanwhile, September as a whole recorded the highest monthly Niño3.4 region temperature anomaly – 2.84C – since sea surface temperature records began in the mid-1800s.
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Hausfather wrote on CB Connect that this year’s El Niño had been “running well above any prior El Niño event since June, at times by a full degree [Celsius]”.
Carbon Brief’s “state of the climate” analysis indicates that El Niño is set to continue to intensify into December, with 10 out of 14 models expecting temperatures in the Niño3.4 region to peak in the final month of this year. The remainder anticipate a November peak.
While human emissions of greenhouse gases are responsible for almost all of long-term global warming, temperatures in specific years are strongly influenced by El Niño events.
The “state of the climate” analysis explains that this year’s El Niño event will have its largest effect on global temperatures in 2027. This is because global temperatures typically lag warming in the tropical Pacific by around three months.
Carbon Brief projects that the 2027 average global temperature will reach around 1.74C above pre-industrial levels. It calculates a 96% chance that next year will be the warmest on record.
This projection is based on the historical relationship between year-on-year temperature changes and El Niño conditions the preceding autumn. It also factors in uncertainty around how global temperatures will develop across the remainder of 2026.
The post ‘Simply staggering’: Rapidly developing ‘super El Niño’ on track to peak in December appeared first on Carbon Brief.
‘Simply staggering’: Rapidly developing ‘super El Niño’ on track to peak in December
Some things are too precious to risk. And Scott Reef is one of them.
Today, we’re launching a bold new campaign starring iconic Australian actor Michael Caton and a green sea turtle named Sandy to rally Australians behind one simple message: Flip off Woodside to save Scott Reef.
Off the coast of Western Australia, Scott Reef is one of Australia’s most extraordinary marine environments. It is home to vulnerable green sea turtles, endangered pygmy blue whales and thousands of other marine species.
Each year, one thousand endangered green sea turtles return to Scott Reef to nest. It’s where they lay their eggs. It’s where baby turtles hatch. It’s where they make their first brave dash from the sand to the ocean. It’s their home.
But this remarkable ecosystem is under threat from Woodside’s plans to drill for gas, with up to 57 toxic wells proposed around the reef.
Turtles can’t speak up for their home, so we’re asking Australians to make their voices heard instead.
From one Aussie icon to another
At the heart of our new campaign is an iconic Australian voice, Michael Caton. Caton is using his voice to speak out for, what will soon be, another Australian icon – Scott Reef.
In a cinematic courtroom showdown, Caton lends his unmistakable voice to one of Scott Reef’s most vulnerable inhabitants: a green sea turtle fighting to protect her home from corporate destruction.
As Sandy the turtle defiantly flips her flippers at Woodside, Caton delivers a message that every Australian can get behind.
“Some things are too precious to risk.”
Because when it comes to protecting our natural environment, sometimes being polite just isn’t enough.
Turning a gesture into a movement
We’ve launching a campaign designed to do more than grab attention. We want to turn public concern into meaningful action.
The idea is simple: flip off Woodside and make sure our political leaders know exactly where Australians stand.
We’re calling on people across the country to share the campaign, get involved on social media and, most importantly, tag their local MPs.
We need Environment Minister Murray Watt and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to hear loud and clear that Australians want Scott Reef protected, not sacrificed for another gas project.
China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell by 3.1% in the third quarter of 2026, as the Hormuz crisis continued to hit oil demand and coal use also dropped.
This guest post is by:
Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air
This was the largest quarterly reduction since the 2022 Covid lockdowns and means that China’s CO2 emissions have now fallen by an estimated 0.5% in the year to date.
The new analysis for Carbon Brief, based on official figures and commercial data, shows that coal use fell by 3% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, while oil was down 4%.
The main drivers were a fall in power-sector coal consumption, a continued sharp reduction in transport oil consumption and slowing growth in the coal-to-chemical industry.
The sharp decline in China’s CO2 emissions extends a “flat or falling” trend that began in March 2024 and has now lasted more than two years, as shown in the figure below.
The outlook for China’s CO2 emissions depends on the balance between rising energy demand, clean-energy growth and the government response to a GDP slowdown.
Decline drivers
Key drivers of the fall in CO2 in the third quarter of 2026 included a 3.3% drop in coal-power generation, after demand growth slowed and the amount of “wasted” wind and solar fell.
Power generation from solar, wind and nuclear increased by 110 terawatt hours (TWh) year-on-year, more than twice as much as the growth in total electricity demand. This added clean-power generation equal to Germany’s total power output in the same time period.
The fall in coal-power output and CO2 emissions came despite the fact that China continues to build new coal-power capacity at near-record rates. This means that average running hours for coal plants are falling even faster than total generation, eroding their profits.
Meanwhile, transport oil consumption continued to fall sharply, down 9% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026. Electric vehicles (EVs) continued to gain market share, hitting a record 67% of passenger car sales and 50% of heavy trucks in September.
The amount of electricity used by EVs grew by 53%, much faster than the number of EVs on the road, showing increased usage of the existing fleet in preference to fuelled vehicles.
Elsewhere, growth in the coal-to-chemical industry continued to slow down in the third quarter of 2026. The sector has been a key source of emissions growth, but high coal prices have weakened profitability and higher output prices hurt downstream demand.
Finally, CO2 emissions from cement and steel production continued to fall in the third quarter, as the contraction in construction volumes accelerated.
Outlook for emissions
Energy consumption growth has been falling after a period of exceptionally high growth during Covid, while clean-power growth has been robust.
This makes it likely that the growth in clean-power generation will exceed total energy demand growth this year, maintaining the structural fall in fossil-fuel use.
Looking ahead, this balance also relies on progress in removing barriers to new solar and wind power being added to the grid, which result in some clean electricity being “wasted”.
The recent slowdown in energy demand growth is partly – but not fully – explained by exceptionally mild weather in the third quarter.
Another key factor is weaker GDP growth. Since reported GDP growth remains within target, however, there is reduced pressure for further stimulus policies.
The focus of the economic stimulus announced to date is “six networks”, which includes the power grid and the transportation network.
These networks are highly relevant for energy and emissions – and they are already covered by policies that emphasise “green” and zero-carbon solutions.
