COP30 Bulletin Day 11: Countries revolt as new text leaves out fossil fuel roadmap

Following a dramatic fire and evacuation yesterday afternoon, negotiations restarted and continued into the night, with the COP30 presidency putting out a series of draft texts, including the main “Mutirão” cover decision at 3am local time. What’s most contentious is what’s not in them. 

There are no roadmaps for transitioning away from fossil fuels or for halting deforestation, as called for by Brazil’s president and around half of countries.

Because of these omissions and concerns on finance, a group of 29 countries – from Europe, Latin America and small islands – wrote a joint letter to the Brazilian COP presidency expressing their “deep concern” over what they call “a take it or leave it” proposal.

“The legacy of the Presidency in making COP30 a milestone moment will depend on the quality – rather than the speed – of the outcome,” they wrote, adding “a weak text would be remembered as a missed and regrettable opportunity and would undermine the credibility of the process, of the Presidency and of the [climate] regime itself”.

They added that they are “concerned by emerging narratives suggesting that ambitious countries are slowing progress” and “the challenge arises when a package that omits essential elements is presented with the expectation of unconditional acceptance, reflecting only what is acceptable to a limited few”.

They call for the Presidency to submit a revised proposal and not ask them to “accept only what the least ambitious are willing to allow”. EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said the text was “no way close to the ambition we need on mitigation” and “we are disappointed with the text currently on the table”.

All governments are scheduled to gather for a plenary meeting around 10 or 11am, where fireworks are likely.

Vague goal to triple adaptation finance included

The draft text does include a “call for efforts” for developed countries to triple adaptation finance compared to 2025 levels by 2030 and “urges” developed countries to “increase the trajectory” of their adaptation finance.

But it has no numbers attached to it and the EU’s climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said that that the EU is “willing to be ambitious on adaptation, but we would like to make clear that any language on finance should squarely be within the commitment reached last year on the [New Collective Quantified Goal on finance agreed at COP29]”.

The tripling idea emanated from the Least Developed Countries in Bonn in June and was later picked up by other developing countries. With indicators for the Global Goal on Adaptation being negotiated in a separate room, developing countries have argued that deciding on metrics to measure adaptation has little point if developed countries are not going to properly fund it.

“Calls” is the same verb used in the COP26 pledge – which is off track – for developed countries to double adaptation finance by 2025. “Calls” is one of the softer verbs used in climate talks, weaker than “instructs”, “urges”, “invites” or “encourages”.

And the baseline – and lack of a quantitative target – will likely raise concerns. Developing countries want a tripling from the amount of adaptation finance developed countries should be providing in 2025, which would be an increase from at least $40bn to $120bn a year.

If calculated from actual 2025 adaptation finance levels, analysis by CARE and Oxfam suggests that is likely to be around $25 billion, though exact figures will not be available until 2027. Using that baseline rather than the 2025 goal could shave about $50 billion a year off what developing countries can expect in 2030, which will not meet rapidly rising needs amid worsening droughts, floods, storms and heatwaves.

Tricky issues of trade, finance and emissions cuts covered

The ‘Mutirao’ text covers the contentious issues which competing negotiating blocks tried, and failed, to get on the COP agenda. It proposes outcomes including new initiatives, talks and calls – but nothing concrete and significant.

On emissions-cutting ambition – a small island and EU priority – the text proposes the creation of a “Global Implementation Accelerator” and a “Belem Mission to 1.5” – both aimed at helping countries improve their climate action. Governments are also “encourage[d]” to strengthen their existing NDC climate plans “at any time with a view to
enhancing its level of ambition”.

On finance – a developing country priority – the text “decides” to scale up finance for developing countries and “calls for enhanced efforts” to meet the COP29 promise to triple annual outflows of funds like the Green Climate Fund. And it promises a “roundtable” of senior ministers on how they’re meeting the finance goal decided at COP29.

On the nexus between trade and climate – an emerging economy priority to discuss – it requests three annual dialogues at the June Bonn sessions. An African trade negotiator told Climate Home News it was “a start” but disappointing that there is not a “full COP item on it”. “It’s like they want to kill it but in a polite way,” the negotiator said.

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