China has two main trends: rapid clean energy growth and shifts in heavy industry that hurt air quality. A new report from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) shows emissions have decreased. But relocating industries is creating new pollution problems in areas that were once clean.
China’s Solar Power Drives Emissions Down
The first half of 2025 marked a positive change for China’s climate efforts. Carbon dioxide emissions fell about 1% year-on-year, the first sustained decline since the pandemic. This progress came mainly from clean energy growth.

- Solar, wind, and nuclear energy produced an extra 270 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity. This not only met the 170 TWh rise in demand but also cut fossil fuel use.

Solar stood out with 170 TWh—equivalent to the annual output of Mexico or Turkey. Wind added 80 TWh, and nuclear contributed 20 TWh, while hydropower declined due to lower rainfall.
Now, low-carbon sources make up 40% of China’s electricity mix, up from 36% in early 2024. Rapid solar growth means 2025 could break records. It might add 212 gigawatts (GW) in just six months, right before a mid-year policy change. This surge makes solar the main driver of China’s emissions decline.
As a result, emissions from the power sector—the largest CO₂ source—fell by 3% compared to last year.

Cleaner Air, But Regional Disparities
Air quality improved across the country. Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) fell by 5% year-on-year. Other pollutants, such as sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide, either decreased or stayed the same.
However, improvements weren’t uniform. Western provinces faced stark contrasts. Guangxi saw PM2.5 levels soar by 32%, Yunnan by 14%, and Xinjiang by 8%. Unlike past spikes from weather, CREA found these increases stemmed from structural growth in emissions.
This rise is tied to relocating heavy industry westward, along with local factors like sandstorms and biomass burning. Regions once seen as safe from pollution are now emerging as new challenges for China’s air quality.

A Seasonal Double Threat
Even where pollution decreased, China faces a “two-season problem.” Winter smog is driven by coal use for heating and industry. Average national PM2.5 levels exceeded the official standard by 18%, with nearly three-quarters of provinces not meeting compliance goals.
In summer, ozone becomes the main issue. Unlike PM2.5, which declined, ozone pollution rose by 4% over the past year. This has become a significant challenge for China’s air quality policies. The mix of winter smog and summer ozone highlights the need for more adaptable governance.
Industry Moves West, Pollution Follows
The westward shift in industry is the main cause of rising pollution in inland regions. Provinces once seen as minor players in heavy manufacturing are now reporting sharp growth in steel, metals, and chemical production. Pig iron output rose over 10%, crude steel by nearly 6%, and non-ferrous metals by more than 4% in the first half of 2025.
Much of this growth relies on traditional, coal-heavy methods. Coal-based steelmaking and conventional coal chemical industries still dominate, offsetting gains from cleaner power elsewhere. As a result, polluted days are becoming more common in inland regions like Ningxia, Shanxi, and Hubei.
These trends show that industrial relocation is shifting not just jobs but also pollution from east to west.
- READ MORE: China’s First-Ever Sovereign Green Bond Hits Global Market: Will It Power Its Net Zero Ambitions?
Coal Still Impacts China’s Energy Transition
Coal remains a significant concern. Although coal-fired electricity generation has decreased, new coal plants are still being added rapidly. CREA estimates that coal power capacity could increase by 80 to 100 GW in 2025, setting a new record.
The coal-to-chemicals sector is another fast-growing source of emissions. Coal use for synthetic fuels and chemicals grew by 20% in the first half of the year. Since 2020, this sector has contributed 3% to China’s overall CO₂ emissions, with projections showing it could add another 2% by 2029.
Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and senior fellow at Asia Society Policy Institute, shared in the guest post for Carbon Brief that, in 2024, this sector consumed 390 million tonnes of coal and emitted about 690 million tonnes of CO₂. It’s 6% of the country’s fossil emissions and nearly 10% of total coal use.
This expansion complicates China’s goal to peak emissions before 2030 and reach net zero by 2060.
Policy Needs to Catch Up
CREA’s analysis shows that China’s air quality efforts focus mainly on eastern “key control zones.” These areas were the first to face pollution challenges. In contrast, western and central provinces, where industry is expanding quickly, do not receive the same oversight, funding, or enforcement.
This creates a dangerous policy gap. Without stronger frameworks, pollution could simply shift inland, undermining national progress. CREA further recommends that the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) broaden air quality policies to fully include western and central regions, with specific targets and monitoring.
Stronger environmental assessments for new industrial projects, especially in coal-heavy sectors, could help prevent cumulative risks. At the same time, clean energy deployment and industrial electrification need to accelerate in coal-dependent provinces, supported by fiscal incentives and grid investment.
Missed Targets Increase Pressure
Despite the emissions drop this year, China is likely to miss several 2025 climate goals. These include reducing carbon intensity, curbing coal growth, and increasing the share of electric-arc steelmaking. This shortfall will heighten pressure on China’s next nationally determined contribution (NDC) for 2035 and its new five-year plan.
The good news is that the declining emissions trend, driven by solar growth, could inspire policymakers to set stronger goals. This trend shows that large-scale clean power expansion can slow and even reverse emissions growth.
The Road Ahead
China’s 2025 path shows a dual transition. Record solar growth and lower emissions indicate clean energy’s impact. Yet, pollution is moving west, ozone levels are rising, and coal-heavy industries keep expanding.
The coming years will reveal if China can close this gap. It must ensure that national progress isn’t slowed by regional issues. If air quality protections expand inland and clean energy surpasses fossil fuels, China could make lasting climate gains. Currently, its clean energy boom occurs alongside an industrial shift that may only move the pollution problem elsewhere.
The post China’s Clean Energy Cuts Emissions 1%, But Coal and Industry Cast a Shadow appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets
The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.
The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.
This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.
The two definitions, in plain English
Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.
Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.
The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.
What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says
The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).
For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.
For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.
A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.
When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)
Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:
- The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
- The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
- The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
- It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.
The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.
When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.
The procurement and supplier engagement question
Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.
To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.
The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.
Choosing the right tool for the right target
A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.
The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.
If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.
Carbon Footprint
Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide
Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.
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Carbon Footprint
Deforestation in Malawi: causes and solutions
Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?
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