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China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
Emissions halt in China
PEAK OR PLATEAU?: A new analysis for Carbon Brief found that China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions were kept “below the previous year’s levels in the last 10 months of 2024” due to a “record surge of clean energy”. (Read more about the surge below.) The author Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), said that clean energy would “accelerate” in 2025 as “largescale wind, solar and nuclear projects race to finish before the 14th five-year plan period comes to an end”. Combined with slowing electricity demand growth, this would be expected to push coal-power output into decline, Myllyvirta said. However, he added that “another period of industrial demand growth driven by government stimulus efforts could change this picture, particularly if the real-estate slump turns around”. In a newly published Carbon Brief interview, Tsinghua University’s Prof Wang Can said that China’s emissions were “close to…the peak”.
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FALLING COAL?: A Reuters article citing several other analysts said coal generation is “set to fall in 2025 for the first time in a decade”, although there is “caution” that “extreme weather or stronger than expected industrial growth could upend that forecast”. The China Electricity Council forecast that electricity demand would grow by 6% in 2025, down from 6.8% in 2024, China energy news reported. Soaring renewable expansion makes it “clear” that China’s future “electric power system” will have non-fossil energy being the “main supply” and fossil-fuel being the “[energy security] guarantee”, according to an article published by industry news outlet BJX News. For now, however, a “more aggressive wave of coal power infrastructure construction is on its way” to keep up with rising electricity demand and more extreme weather events, added the article.
Clean energy surge
RENEWABLES RISE 25%: About 357 gigawatts (GW) of solar and wind was built in China last year, reported the Associated Press citing data from China’s National Energy Administration (NEA). The NEA’s data showed that, as of the end of 2024, the capacity of renewable energy reached 1,889GW, up 25% year-on-year and accounting for about 56% of the total capacity, reported Jiemian. In addition, the capacity of “new energy storage” surpassed 70GW, Xinhua said.

GERMAN-SIZED GROWTH: The clean-energy capacity completed in 2024, including new nuclear, is sufficient to generate around 500 terawatt hours (TWh) per year, the Carbon Brief analysis showed – equivalent to the total annual power output of Germany. In 2025, China is set to add enough to generate 600TWh per year, roughly twice the output of the UK.
‘SUPER DAM’ DOUBTS: Meanwhile, “concerns” over China’s proposed “super dam” in Tibet, which could produce 300TWh of electricity annually, continued to rise, according to the New York Times, “in part, because Beijing has said so little about it”. The dam would be built on the Yarlung Tsangpo river, which flows into India and Bangladesh, added the newspaper. Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson for India’s foreign ministry, criticised the “mega project with a lot of ecological disturbances” for not taking “the interests of the lower riparian states” into account, reported the Financial Times. The newspaper added that India “fears…[it] could spur floods and water scarcity downstream”. Prof Y Nithiyanandam of Indian thinktank the Takshashila Institution wrote in a comment for the New Indian Express that the Yarlung Tsangpo basin is already “vulnerable” to “climate change and disasters”, which together “rais[e] serious questions about the long-term viability and safety of the project”.
US-China tariff tensions
TRUMP TARIFF RETALIATION: In response to the Trump administration imposing an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports, China announced duties of 10-15% on US fossil fuels and certain other goods, the Financial Times reported, adding that the scope was “limited…in a possible attempt to avoid a full-blown trade war”. Coal and liquified natural gas (LNG) will face an additional 15% tariff, while crude oil, agricultural machinery and some cars will bear an extra 10%, the newspaper continued. China was the second-largest buyer of US coal in the first three quarters of 2024 after India, the report added.
‘EFFECTIVELY DEAD’: In a comment for Reuters, columnist Clyde Russell said that while the fossil-fuel trade between the two countries was now “effectively dead”, “the immediate impact of China’s measures…is likely to be limited”, given that China’s oil purchases from the US make up less than 2% of its imports, LNG volumes are “modest” and the US is “little more than a fringe supplier” of coal to the country.
CRITICAL MINERALS: Meanwhile, China announced additional controls on more than two dozen rare metal products and technologies, according to the Financial Times. “Molybdenum and indium-related items” – materials used to make low-carbon technologies including wind turbines – were on the list published by the Chinese communist party-affiliated newspaper People’s Daily. For now, the new controls mirror earlier restrictions, which added paperwork but – per previous Carbon Brief analysis – only temporarily interrupted critical mineral trade flows.
Money, money, money
LARGEST MARKET: Chinese investment in the low-carbon transition “grew 20% last year, accounting for $134bn of the $202bn global increase”, the Financial Times reported, citing new figures from data provider BloombergNEF. The report found that mainland China was the “largest market for investment” in the energy transition, accounting for $818bn out of a global total that surpassed $2tn for the first time in 2024. BusinessGreen said that global investment levels were only at 37% of the level needed to meet global targets, according to a separate BloombergNEF report, with China “the closest to being on track”.
OVERSEAS INVESTMENT: China signed new clean energy- and environment-related contracts with other countries worth just over $49bn in 2024, up 13% year-on-year, the state-supporting Global Times said, citing China’s Ministry of Commerce. This outpaced the 1% growth in new overseas contracts overall, according to the newspaper. In addition, a “record amount of generation capacity” (24GW) was installed by Chinese companies in countries falling under China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2024, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post reported. About 52% of the projects “employed renewable sources”, while 48% were fossil fuel-based, it added. Dialogue Earth reported that, between 2006 and 2022, 86% of the approximately $9bn that Chinese entities invested in Indonesia’s energy sector focused on fossil fuels, “leaving just 14% for renewables”.
Captured

China issued just under $57bn in “aid and subsidised credit”, predominantly loans, to other countries to develop mines for critical minerals between 2000 and 2021, according to a new dataset by AidData. Chinese-backed mining activity focused on “copper, cobalt, nickel, lithium and rare-earth elements”, for which it developed mines across 19 low-income and middle-income countries, noted a report accompanying the dataset. Loans made to the Middle East in 2000 and the Americas in 2014 are too small to be visible on the chart.
Spotlight
How ‘green’ is the 2025 Asian Winter Games?
The 9th Asian Winter Games will be held in Harbin, capital of the northmost province in China, bordering Russia, from tomorrow to 14 February.
Being “green and eco-friendly” is the city’s “principle” for hosting the event, according to the official report. In this issue, Carbon Brief explores the “green” efforts that have been made for this four-yearly multisports event.
‘100% green electricity’
China has hosted two Olympic games and three Asian Games. Similar to the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics and 2023 Hangzhou Asian Summer Games, the 2025 Harbin Asian Winter Games has also claimed to be relying on “green electricity”.
State news agency Xinhua said it is the “first time in history that 100% green electricity will be guaranteed during the Asian Winter Games, covering both the venue renovations and the games’ operations”.
Harbin is the biggest city in the province of Heilongjiang. From January to October 2024, Heilongjiang produced 103,710 gigawatt hours (GWh) of electricity, according to commercial data provider Hua Jing.
“Green electricity” from wind, solar and hydropower contributed nearly 29% of the total output, it added, with coal at 71%. It also reported that thermal generation – mainly coal – was down 2% year-on-year, while wind was up 17%, solar 1% and hydro 6%.
The amount of electricity needed to run the games is small in comparison to these totals. The entire games, including preparations, would consume just 88GWh – less than 3% of the renewable electricity generated by the province in an average month.
However, whereas a new “green electricity grid” was built to power the Beijing Winter Olympics in 2022, Harbin does not appear to have commissioned specific new generating capacity or grid infrastructure as part of hosting the Asian winter games.
Instead, state-supported Science and Technology Daily reported that 73GWh of “green electricity” had been “traded” – bought from elsewhere – in order to “fully meet the green power demand” during the games.
‘New energy’ transport
Other than renewable electricity, the Harbin organisers also “introduced new-energy vehicles (NEVs) to cater to transportation needs” during the games.
NEVs include battery-electric (EVs), plug-in hybrids as well as fuel-cell electric vehicles, and emit less carbon dioxide (CO2) than fossil fuel-powered cars.
In contrast to other recent games that mainly used EVs, the Harbin Games will employ more than 350 “methanol-hydrogen-electric hybrid” vehicles as the “official transport fleet” to ensure “eco-friendly, reliable travel even in temperatures as low as -20C”, according to state media CGTN. (EVs are also being used for these games.)
Methanol-hydrogen-electric vehicles, according to state-run China Daily, use methanol as a “liquid fuel” in place of petrol, but are otherwise similar to hybrid vehicles such as a Prius.
A more detailed commercial report said that Geely, the firm making the cars, is also participating in production plants where electrolytic hydrogen is combined with CO2 to produce “low-carbon methanol” to power the vehicles.
According to Geely, a first 100,000 tonnes-per-year demonstration phase of the Alxa “green methanol” project opened in Inner Mongolia in October 2024. The full 500,000t per year scheme is expected to cut CO2 emissions by 750,000 tonnes per year.
State media CGTN said the Harbin games would mark the “first large-scale use of methanol vehicles at an international event”.
The China Daily report also said that, “if widely adopted, these vehicles could help reduce oil imports by 125m tonnes annually and cut carbon emissions by 215m tonnes”.
More ‘greener’ winter games
Harbin is home to the world’s biggest snow and ice festival each year and hosted the 1996 Asian Winter Games.
Despite the city usually receiving consistent snowfall during winter, it still made up to 800,000 cubic metres of artificial snow as of January at its main skiing venue, Yabuli ski resort, for the 2025 event.
Scientists have warned that climate change will, over time, leave fewer places with enough natural snowfall for hosting winter sports.
Last year, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) warned that only 10 countries would be able to host snow sports by 2040 as a result of warming, BBC News reported.
The 2022 Winter Olympics sparked a backlash for being almost entirely dependent on artificial snow and ice, as its host city Beijing has received barely any snow in recent years.
At the time, the IOC defended the decision, saying artificial snow had been used for years and was needed “to get the right quality” for consistent race conditions.
The environmental impact of major international sporting events has been coming under increasing scrutiny.
The Paris 2024 Olympics emitted less than half the average of the 2012 and 2016 Olympics, according to Carbon Brief analysis.
The upcoming 2026 Milan Olympics is committed to “fighting climate change and protecting natural ecosystems”, while the 2028 games has announced a “no cars” ambition and plans to build a “greener Los Angeles”.
Watch, read, listen
‘CLIMATE LEADER’: A podcast from Singapore’s Straits Times asked: “Can China step up to become a climate leader?” It hosted Li Shuo, director of China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
NUCLEAR FUSION: An article from thinktank MacroPolo explored whether China’s energy development model, which “marries state capital with iterative and process innovation in the private sector”, can “succeed in frontier energy technologies, particularly the holy grail of nuclear fusion”.
ENERGY STORAGE: The South China Morning Post published a comment by analyst Tim Daiss under the title: “How battery storage development can wean China off fossil fuels.”
STEEL REFORM: Shanghai-based media outlet the Paper explored decarbonisation pathways for the Chinese steel industry.
20,000
The number of petrol stations expected to close in China during the 15th “five-year plan” (2026-2030), out of 110,000 that are currently under operation, reported financial media Caijing. The closures are due to the rise of electric cars and LNG-fuelled trucks, which means that China’s demand for refined oil products is declining and its oil demand overall is “entering a peak plateau period”, added the report.
New science
Planted forests in China have higher drought risk than natural forests
Global Change Biology
Planted forests in China are less able to cope with drought than natural forests, according to new research. The study, which used satellite observations over 2001-20 to understand forest drought risk, found that planted forests exhibit lower drought resilience and resistance than natural forests, particularly subtropical broad-leaved evergreen and warm temperate deciduous broad-leaved forests. Lower forest canopy height and poorer soil nutrients are among the factors responsible for planted forests’ higher drought risk, according to the researchers. They emphasised the need for “enhanced [forest] management strategies” as droughts become more frequent and severe.
Temperature effects on peoples’ health and their adaptation: empirical evidence from China
Climate Change
Chinese residents “implement appropriate protective measures” when temperatures exceed 30C, but underestimate the risks posed by temperatures of 25-30C, a new study said. This can lead to “significant health issues”, the paper warned. The authors combined meteorological data with results from the China family panel survey, which includes data from around 33,500 adults on hospital stays and self-reported “unhealthy status”. The paper found that increased healthcare expenditure and reduced physical activity are “two possible ways in which residents respond to climate change”.
China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org
The post China Briefing 6 February 2025: Emissions halt; ‘Green’ Asian Winter Games; US-China tariff war appeared first on Carbon Brief.
China Briefing 6 February 2025: Emissions halt; ‘Green’ Asian Winter Games; US-China tariff war
Climate Change
Palestine: Israel’s bombing has left Gaza vulnerable to climate change
Israel’s bombardment of Gaza during the conflict that broke out in October 2023 has wrecked progress towards adapting the enclave to climate change and left two million Gazans vulnerable to heatwaves, drought and disease, the Palestinian Authority (PA) said in a new climate plan submitted to the United Nations.
Palestine’s third nationally determined contribution (NDC), uploaded to the UN climate body’s website this week, says that while “the aggression on the Gaza Strip did not make the climate worse”, “it removed the housing, water and sanitation systems, health facilities, energy networks, roads and livelihoods through which people absorb a climate they were already struggling with.”
The 91-page document lists the types of infrastructure it says Israel has destroyed and notes how the destruction will worsen the impacts of climate change. It says the bombing of hospitals and rising hunger have make it harder for Gazans to cope with the health impacts of climate-driven heatwaves and waterborne diseases.
The destruction of water tanks, boreholes and desalination plants, meanwhile, have left Gazans struggling with the effects of water shortages and drought, while mass unemployment reduces people’s ability to afford climate-driven price rises. The erasure of most of the Strip’s homes makes it more difficult for people to avoid the sun’s increasing heat, the NDC said.
Many Gazans are now living in the ruins of collapsed buildings or in makeshift shelters and tents that offer little or no protection from high temperatures.
Palestine’s previous goals to cut emissions and adapt to climate change in Gaza, expressed in its last NDC five years ago, were based on a pre-war baseline that “no longer describes anything that exists”, the NDC says. Progress made since 2021 has now been destroyed, it adds.
Green reconstruction of Gaza
Instead of continuing to aim for these adaptation and emissions-reduction goals, the PA is now calling for the green reconstruction of Gaza. It says buildings should be constructed again in an energy-efficient manner with solar panels and served with modern water, waste and transport systems.
While the PA, controlled by the Fatah political party, continues to claim legitimate control of Gaza, the strip was effectively governed by Fatah’s rival Hamas between 2007 and the recent war. Control is now split between Israel and the political wing of Islamist militant group Hamas, after a US-backed ceasefire took effect in October 2025, although a UN-backed committee plans to take over.
The United Nations, European Union and World Bank have jointly estimated that Gaza needs $71.4 billion of investment in the next two years to recover and build back. This process should be Palestinian-led, they said in April.
But US President Donald Trump has said the US should “take over” and “own” Gaza and redevelop it as the “Riviera of the Middle East”. Israel’s right-wing prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that Israel should control the territory with civil administration managed by Palestinians favourable to Israel.
With occupation, targets conditional
In the other part of Palestine, the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority carries out some government functions, but ultimate control rests with Israel, which has occupied the West Bank since 1967.
Because Israel controls planning in most of the West Bank, the NDC argues that the PA cannot pursue all the climate projects it wants. In addition, Israel restricts the movement of PA officials, making data collection difficult, and controls the West Bank’s electricity supply meaning that the PA cannot control whether it comes from dirty or clean sources of energy.
Given this situation, the NDC says that all of Palestine’s new climate targets are conditional but it will aim to reduce emissions 12.8% below a business-as-usual baseline by 2035 and 17.1% by 2040. If the Israeli occupation ends and Palestine regains full sovereignty over its land and resources, it will aim for reductions of 15.1% and 19.1% by 2035 and 2040 respectively under an “independence pathway”.
That could allow, for example, for greater electrification and reducing emissions per unit of growth, the document said.
To achieve the 2035 emissions-reduction target and adapt to the impacts of climate change, the PA says it needs $8.6 billion in total. This funding would be spent on measures like encouraging solar farms and rooftop solar and scaling up solar water heating to cover four-fifths of households. To complement the planned increase in solar power, the authority wants to modernise the electricity grid and install battery storage.
In the transport sector, it aims to promote the uptake of electric vehicles, develop bus rapid transit corridors and scrap old polluting trucks and buses. In Gaza in particular, it wants to deploy 66 electric buses when the conflict ends.

To adapt to climate-driven drought, the NDC includes initiatives to reuse wastewater through treatment plants, build desalination plants in Gaza to remove salt from seawater, and promote irrigation for farmers.
The new climate plan was prepared by Palestine’s Environment Quality Authority, with support from the United Nations Development Programme and the governments of Britain and Spain.
The United Nations recognised Palestine’s statehood in 2012 and it joined the UN’s climate convention and signed the Paris climate agreement – which requires countries to submit more ambitious NDCs every five years – in 2016.
The Israeli foreign ministry did not respond to a request for comment. But in late 2024, then Israeli climate envoy Gideon Behar told Climate Home News that the war and the resulting environmental destruction in Gaza was the fault of Hamas.
The post Palestine: Israel’s bombing has left Gaza vulnerable to climate change appeared first on Climate Home News.
Palestine: Israel’s bombing has left Gaza vulnerable to climate change
Climate Change
Analysis: UK solar power hits record high over summer 2026
Solar power generation in the UK reached a new record over the summer of 2026, as temperatures across the nation soared, according to new analysis by Carbon Brief.
Collectively over June, July and August, solar farms and rooftops generated 8.8 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity in the UK*, as shown in the chart below.

Speaking to Carbon Brief, Chris Hewett, chief executive of trade association Solar Energy UK welcomed the new record, adding that it was driven by “clear skies and continued growth in deployment”.
This surge in generation took place amid the hottest summer on record in the UK, with five heatwaves between May and August.
Summer 2026 was the sixth sunniest on record, with more than 620 hours of sunshine, according to the Met Office. England and Wales – which experienced the most extreme heat – saw their second-sunniest summers on record.
June 2026 was the hottest June in England since records began in 1884, according to Met Office data, while Wales and the UK as a whole experienced their second-warmest June.
It was the driest July for England and Wales since records began in 1836, with some parts of London seeing no rain at all in the month, while Wisley in Surrey had no rain for 62 days.
In England, temperatures peaked at 38.1C at Kew Gardens in London on 13 August.
According to the Met Office, this summer’s record mean temperature was made 130 times more likely by climate change.
Amid these hot and sunny months, solar power generation increased 23% from the same period in 2025. This is double the level of solar generation over the summer of 2021, according to Carbon Brief analysis.
While solar panels can be affected by periods of extreme heat, the longer hours of daylight and higher levels of irradiation over the summer more than offset any efficiency losses.
June, July and August all saw solar set new monthly records for solar generation – July saw the highest solar generation in a calendar month ever, with 3.3TWh meeting 15% of overall electricity demand for the month.
As of the end of August, the total UK solar generation in 2026 stood at 17TWh – 13% higher than the same point in 2025.
The number of solar farms and rooftop installations has grown substantially in recent years, helping to boost generation. Domestic rooftop solar accounts for around 29% of total capacity.
In 2025, the UK’s solar capacity reached 21 gigawatts (GW) by the third quarter of the year, according to UK government figures. This is a jump of 3GW, or 18%, year-on-year, as Carbon Brief reported in January.
(Capacity is the maximum output possible from an electricity generation, whereas generation is what was produced over a certain time period, such as a day, month or year.)
According to the University of Sheffield, the installed solar capacity is now nearly 24GW.
This includes nearly 172,000 solar installations that have been fitted across the UK since the start of 2026, according to recent government figures. In July alone, more than 19,800 rooftop solar panels were installed – the equivalent of one installation every two minutes.
In total, nearly 1.7m households in the UK now have solar panels installed.
Over 26 heatwave days this summer – periods of at least three days when temperatures exceed the Met Office’s county-level heatwave temperature threshold – UK households with rooftop solar panels avoided an estimated £86.7m in electricity costs, according to analysis by Utility Bidder.
Talking about the surge in solar generation this summer, Hewett says:
“[It] not only kept bills down for people with solar and batteries in their homes, but helped keep overall power prices much lower than they would have been if Britain had been relying on more gas generation during the day”.
Despite the record generation, no new half-hourly solar power output record was set in the summer of 2026. This still stands at 15.2 megawatts (MW) on 23 April 2026.
* This article refers to the UK throughout, but strictly relates to the island of Great Britain, made up of England, Scotland and Wales. Northern Ireland is part of the separate, all-Ireland electricity system.
related
Factcheck: 10 flaws in the Conservative report on ‘cheap power’
Q&A: What is ‘long-duration energy storage’ – and why does the UK need it?
Q&A: What does China’s 15th ‘five-year plan’ for renewables mean for climate change?
Analysis: Wind and solar power overtake fossil fuels in Germany for first time ever
The post Analysis: UK solar power hits record high over summer 2026 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Climate Change
How this summer’s heat and drought impacted crops in Europe – in six charts
Farmers around Europe are dealing with the aftermath of a summer of extreme heat, drought and wildfires that were exacerbated by climate change.
Human-caused climate change is increasing the severity and likelihood of many extreme weather events around the world, which is increasing volatility for food producers.
This summer resulted in, for example, shrunken potatoes in the Netherlands, reduced carrot harvests in France, dried-up rice fields in Italy and scorched olive groves in parts of the Mediterranean region.
Global food prices are currently at their highest level since early 2023 due to “heatwaves and energy price dynamics”, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.
Other factors such as blocked fertiliser supplies in the Strait of Hormuz and high fuel costs have also played a role in this year’s agricultural outputs.
In the six charts below, Carbon Brief provides a snapshot of the impact this summer’s extremes are considered to have had on crop production and yields across Europe.
1. Most EU countries expect to see declines in cereal production this year
2. Most countries are recording reduced crop yields
3. Around €2bn worth of cereal losses after June heatwave
4. UK yields of wheat, barley and oats are all due to drop in 2026
5. Maize production in France is due to hit a four-decade low
1. Most EU countries expect to see declines in cereal production this year

France, in particular, will see heavy losses in the amount of cereals – such as wheat, barley and oats – it produces this year, according to European Commission data.
French cereal production is expected to drop by almost 8 megatonnes (Mt) in 2026, compared to 2025.
The chart above shows that most European countries, aside from Bulgaria, will also see production losses this year.
Germany is due to see the second-largest losses in production, dropping by almost 4Mt compared to 2025.
Prof Til Feike, a cropping systems expert at the Julius Kühn-Institut, says many areas in Germany and Austria, as with other parts of Europe, have been “hit hard by a long-lasting dry period in combination with record-high heatwaves”.
This has resulted in dry grassland for animals and lower yields of maize, which is a “key fodder crop” for livestock. He tells Carbon Brief:
“In the long run, farming must adapt better to more extreme weather conditions, not only heat and drought, but also prolonged wet periods. So, there is no one-fits-all solution for climate change adaptation.”
2. Most countries are recording reduced crop yields
Heat and a lack of water have “substantially worsened” crop expectations this summer in western and most of central Europe, according to a recent bulletin from the EU Joint Research Centre.
Yields are expected to be “significantly reduced”, with local crop failures “likely” in areas such as France, southern Germany, northern and central Italy, and Hungary, it added.
The chart below shows that yields of cereal grains – which, here, refers to the tonnes of a grain grown per hectare of land – are expected to fall in most EU countries in 2026.

Slovakia, Austria and Hungary are expected to see the largest declines in cereal yields, reducing by more than one tonne per hectare in 2026 compared to 2025.
The recent EU bulletin noted that irrigated crops performed well in Portugal this summer – the country with the largest yield increases. Other crops relying on rainfall showed growing signs of heat stress, it added.
3. Around €2bn worth of cereal losses after June heatwave
The record heatwave that hit many parts of Europe in June contributed to an estimated €2-2.3bn in cumulative grain production losses, as shown in the chart below.

The intense June heat in western Europe would have been “virtually impossible” just 50 years ago, according to a rapid climate attribution study. It was the region’s hottest June on record.
The Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) thinktank analysed June and July 2026 grain forecasts from Coceral, a European grain traders association.
ECIU estimated lost supply by multiplying the change in tonnes of grains between these two months by prices for harvest delivery in 28 European countries.
Major grain producers France, Germany, Hungary and Spain accounted for 86% of the lost revenue, according to the ECIU.
Extreme heat is also expected to have a wider economic impact across the continent. Analysis from Triodos Bank found that this summer’s extreme weather could reduce the EU’s gross domestic product (GDP) by around 1% this year, or around €180bn.
4. UK yields of wheat, barley and oats are all due to drop in 2026
If current trends continue, the average yields for cereals and oilseeds will result in the UK’s worst harvest since detailed records began in 1984, according to ECIU.

Barley yields could fall by 15%, oats by 14% and wheat yields by 6% year-on-year, according to 2026 harvest surveys from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, a non-departmental public body that provides agricultural data to the UK government.
ECIU said that, even if the situation improves, this year is still expected to be one of the five worst harvests on record. This means that four of the five worst harvests in the UK have occurred in the past decade.
Consumers will likely see higher prices and/or smaller vegetables in supermarkets as a result, Tim O’Malley, chairman of UK company Nationwide Produce, told BBC News in August.
Other crops, such as berries, have grown successfully in the extreme heat. But the Guardian noted fears this could dip later this year “as plants become exhausted from heavy cropping during the heatwave”.
5. Maize production in France is due to hit a four-decade low
France has been acutely affected by this summer’s extreme weather, with more than 7,300 excess deaths during heatwaves and a record number of weather stations recording temperatures of above 40C.
The country is the EU’s largest agricultural producer, but heat, drought and wildfires have affected many crops.
The chart below shows that maize production is set to drop by more than one-third (35%) year-on-year.

This could result in France’s lowest maize production since 1980, according to data from Agreste, the country’s agriculture ministry’s statistics service.
Due to the heat, “record-early” grape harvests have also been recorded in various parts of the nation since mid-July, reported Le Monde. In some cases, this means “smaller, less juicy grapes, which will yield less wine”, explained the newspaper.
6. Declines in EU grains since 2025

Overall in the EU, data and projections indicate declines in the output of cereal grains this year.
Cereal production is set to fall by 9% compared to 2025, according to the European Commission.
Just one year in the past decade – 2024 – recorded lower production levels.
Maize production is set to be particularly affected, with projections indicating a 13% drop, to 52Mt – the lowest level in the EU since 2007.
The post How this summer’s heat and drought impacted crops in Europe – in six charts appeared first on Carbon Brief.
How this summer’s heat and drought impacted crops in Europe – in six charts
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