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China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
Emissions halt in China
PEAK OR PLATEAU?: A new analysis for Carbon Brief found that China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions were kept “below the previous year’s levels in the last 10 months of 2024” due to a “record surge of clean energy”. (Read more about the surge below.) The author Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), said that clean energy would “accelerate” in 2025 as “largescale wind, solar and nuclear projects race to finish before the 14th five-year plan period comes to an end”. Combined with slowing electricity demand growth, this would be expected to push coal-power output into decline, Myllyvirta said. However, he added that “another period of industrial demand growth driven by government stimulus efforts could change this picture, particularly if the real-estate slump turns around”. In a newly published Carbon Brief interview, Tsinghua University’s Prof Wang Can said that China’s emissions were “close to…the peak”.
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FALLING COAL?: A Reuters article citing several other analysts said coal generation is “set to fall in 2025 for the first time in a decade”, although there is “caution” that “extreme weather or stronger than expected industrial growth could upend that forecast”. The China Electricity Council forecast that electricity demand would grow by 6% in 2025, down from 6.8% in 2024, China energy news reported. Soaring renewable expansion makes it “clear” that China’s future “electric power system” will have non-fossil energy being the “main supply” and fossil-fuel being the “[energy security] guarantee”, according to an article published by industry news outlet BJX News. For now, however, a “more aggressive wave of coal power infrastructure construction is on its way” to keep up with rising electricity demand and more extreme weather events, added the article.
Clean energy surge
RENEWABLES RISE 25%: About 357 gigawatts (GW) of solar and wind was built in China last year, reported the Associated Press citing data from China’s National Energy Administration (NEA). The NEA’s data showed that, as of the end of 2024, the capacity of renewable energy reached 1,889GW, up 25% year-on-year and accounting for about 56% of the total capacity, reported Jiemian. In addition, the capacity of “new energy storage” surpassed 70GW, Xinhua said.
GERMAN-SIZED GROWTH: The clean-energy capacity completed in 2024, including new nuclear, is sufficient to generate around 500 terawatt hours (TWh) per year, the Carbon Brief analysis showed – equivalent to the total annual power output of Germany. In 2025, China is set to add enough to generate 600TWh per year, roughly twice the output of the UK.
‘SUPER DAM’ DOUBTS: Meanwhile, “concerns” over China’s proposed “super dam” in Tibet, which could produce 300TWh of electricity annually, continued to rise, according to the New York Times, “in part, because Beijing has said so little about it”. The dam would be built on the Yarlung Tsangpo river, which flows into India and Bangladesh, added the newspaper. Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson for India’s foreign ministry, criticised the “mega project with a lot of ecological disturbances” for not taking “the interests of the lower riparian states” into account, reported the Financial Times. The newspaper added that India “fears…[it] could spur floods and water scarcity downstream”. Prof Y Nithiyanandam of Indian thinktank the Takshashila Institution wrote in a comment for the New Indian Express that the Yarlung Tsangpo basin is already “vulnerable” to “climate change and disasters”, which together “rais[e] serious questions about the long-term viability and safety of the project”.
US-China tariff tensions
TRUMP TARIFF RETALIATION: In response to the Trump administration imposing an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports, China announced duties of 10-15% on US fossil fuels and certain other goods, the Financial Times reported, adding that the scope was “limited…in a possible attempt to avoid a full-blown trade war”. Coal and liquified natural gas (LNG) will face an additional 15% tariff, while crude oil, agricultural machinery and some cars will bear an extra 10%, the newspaper continued. China was the second-largest buyer of US coal in the first three quarters of 2024 after India, the report added.
‘EFFECTIVELY DEAD’: In a comment for Reuters, columnist Clyde Russell said that while the fossil-fuel trade between the two countries was now “effectively dead”, “the immediate impact of China’s measures…is likely to be limited”, given that China’s oil purchases from the US make up less than 2% of its imports, LNG volumes are “modest” and the US is “little more than a fringe supplier” of coal to the country.
CRITICAL MINERALS: Meanwhile, China announced additional controls on more than two dozen rare metal products and technologies, according to the Financial Times. “Molybdenum and indium-related items” – materials used to make low-carbon technologies including wind turbines – were on the list published by the Chinese communist party-affiliated newspaper People’s Daily. For now, the new controls mirror earlier restrictions, which added paperwork but – per previous Carbon Brief analysis – only temporarily interrupted critical mineral trade flows.
Money, money, money
LARGEST MARKET: Chinese investment in the low-carbon transition “grew 20% last year, accounting for $134bn of the $202bn global increase”, the Financial Times reported, citing new figures from data provider BloombergNEF. The report found that mainland China was the “largest market for investment” in the energy transition, accounting for $818bn out of a global total that surpassed $2tn for the first time in 2024. BusinessGreen said that global investment levels were only at 37% of the level needed to meet global targets, according to a separate BloombergNEF report, with China “the closest to being on track”.
OVERSEAS INVESTMENT: China signed new clean energy- and environment-related contracts with other countries worth just over $49bn in 2024, up 13% year-on-year, the state-supporting Global Times said, citing China’s Ministry of Commerce. This outpaced the 1% growth in new overseas contracts overall, according to the newspaper. In addition, a “record amount of generation capacity” (24GW) was installed by Chinese companies in countries falling under China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2024, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post reported. About 52% of the projects “employed renewable sources”, while 48% were fossil fuel-based, it added. Dialogue Earth reported that, between 2006 and 2022, 86% of the approximately $9bn that Chinese entities invested in Indonesia’s energy sector focused on fossil fuels, “leaving just 14% for renewables”.
Captured
China issued just under $57bn in “aid and subsidised credit”, predominantly loans, to other countries to develop mines for critical minerals between 2000 and 2021, according to a new dataset by AidData. Chinese-backed mining activity focused on “copper, cobalt, nickel, lithium and rare-earth elements”, for which it developed mines across 19 low-income and middle-income countries, noted a report accompanying the dataset. Loans made to the Middle East in 2000 and the Americas in 2014 are too small to be visible on the chart.
Spotlight
How ‘green’ is the 2025 Asian Winter Games?
The 9th Asian Winter Games will be held in Harbin, capital of the northmost province in China, bordering Russia, from tomorrow to 14 February.
Being “green and eco-friendly” is the city’s “principle” for hosting the event, according to the official report. In this issue, Carbon Brief explores the “green” efforts that have been made for this four-yearly multisports event.
‘100% green electricity’
China has hosted two Olympic games and three Asian Games. Similar to the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics and 2023 Hangzhou Asian Summer Games, the 2025 Harbin Asian Winter Games has also claimed to be relying on “green electricity”.
State news agency Xinhua said it is the “first time in history that 100% green electricity will be guaranteed during the Asian Winter Games, covering both the venue renovations and the games’ operations”.
Harbin is the biggest city in the province of Heilongjiang. From January to October 2024, Heilongjiang produced 103,710 gigawatt hours (GWh) of electricity, according to commercial data provider Hua Jing.
“Green electricity” from wind, solar and hydropower contributed nearly 29% of the total output, it added, with coal at 71%. It also reported that thermal generation – mainly coal – was down 2% year-on-year, while wind was up 17%, solar 1% and hydro 6%.
The amount of electricity needed to run the games is small in comparison to these totals. The entire games, including preparations, would consume just 88GWh – less than 3% of the renewable electricity generated by the province in an average month.
However, whereas a new “green electricity grid” was built to power the Beijing Winter Olympics in 2022, Harbin does not appear to have commissioned specific new generating capacity or grid infrastructure as part of hosting the Asian winter games.
Instead, state-supported Science and Technology Daily reported that 73GWh of “green electricity” had been “traded” – bought from elsewhere – in order to “fully meet the green power demand” during the games.
‘New energy’ transport
Other than renewable electricity, the Harbin organisers also “introduced new-energy vehicles (NEVs) to cater to transportation needs” during the games.
NEVs include battery-electric (EVs), plug-in hybrids as well as fuel-cell electric vehicles, and emit less carbon dioxide (CO2) than fossil fuel-powered cars.
In contrast to other recent games that mainly used EVs, the Harbin Games will employ more than 350 “methanol-hydrogen-electric hybrid” vehicles as the “official transport fleet” to ensure “eco-friendly, reliable travel even in temperatures as low as -20C”, according to state media CGTN. (EVs are also being used for these games.)
Methanol-hydrogen-electric vehicles, according to state-run China Daily, use methanol as a “liquid fuel” in place of petrol, but are otherwise similar to hybrid vehicles such as a Prius.
A more detailed commercial report said that Geely, the firm making the cars, is also participating in production plants where electrolytic hydrogen is combined with CO2 to produce “low-carbon methanol” to power the vehicles.
According to Geely, a first 100,000 tonnes-per-year demonstration phase of the Alxa “green methanol” project opened in Inner Mongolia in October 2024. The full 500,000t per year scheme is expected to cut CO2 emissions by 750,000 tonnes per year.
State media CGTN said the Harbin games would mark the “first large-scale use of methanol vehicles at an international event”.
The China Daily report also said that, “if widely adopted, these vehicles could help reduce oil imports by 125m tonnes annually and cut carbon emissions by 215m tonnes”.
More ‘greener’ winter games
Harbin is home to the world’s biggest snow and ice festival each year and hosted the 1996 Asian Winter Games.
Despite the city usually receiving consistent snowfall during winter, it still made up to 800,000 cubic metres of artificial snow as of January at its main skiing venue, Yabuli ski resort, for the 2025 event.
Scientists have warned that climate change will, over time, leave fewer places with enough natural snowfall for hosting winter sports.
Last year, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) warned that only 10 countries would be able to host snow sports by 2040 as a result of warming, BBC News reported.
The 2022 Winter Olympics sparked a backlash for being almost entirely dependent on artificial snow and ice, as its host city Beijing has received barely any snow in recent years.
At the time, the IOC defended the decision, saying artificial snow had been used for years and was needed “to get the right quality” for consistent race conditions.
The environmental impact of major international sporting events has been coming under increasing scrutiny.
The Paris 2024 Olympics emitted less than half the average of the 2012 and 2016 Olympics, according to Carbon Brief analysis.
The upcoming 2026 Milan Olympics is committed to “fighting climate change and protecting natural ecosystems”, while the 2028 games has announced a “no cars” ambition and plans to build a “greener Los Angeles”.
Watch, read, listen
‘CLIMATE LEADER’: A podcast from Singapore’s Straits Times asked: “Can China step up to become a climate leader?” It hosted Li Shuo, director of China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
NUCLEAR FUSION: An article from thinktank MacroPolo explored whether China’s energy development model, which “marries state capital with iterative and process innovation in the private sector”, can “succeed in frontier energy technologies, particularly the holy grail of nuclear fusion”.
ENERGY STORAGE: The South China Morning Post published a comment by analyst Tim Daiss under the title: “How battery storage development can wean China off fossil fuels.”
STEEL REFORM: Shanghai-based media outlet the Paper explored decarbonisation pathways for the Chinese steel industry.
20,000
The number of petrol stations expected to close in China during the 15th “five-year plan” (2026-2030), out of 110,000 that are currently under operation, reported financial media Caijing. The closures are due to the rise of electric cars and LNG-fuelled trucks, which means that China’s demand for refined oil products is declining and its oil demand overall is “entering a peak plateau period”, added the report.
New science
Planted forests in China have higher drought risk than natural forests
Global Change Biology
Planted forests in China are less able to cope with drought than natural forests, according to new research. The study, which used satellite observations over 2001-20 to understand forest drought risk, found that planted forests exhibit lower drought resilience and resistance than natural forests, particularly subtropical broad-leaved evergreen and warm temperate deciduous broad-leaved forests. Lower forest canopy height and poorer soil nutrients are among the factors responsible for planted forests’ higher drought risk, according to the researchers. They emphasised the need for “enhanced [forest] management strategies” as droughts become more frequent and severe.
Temperature effects on peoples’ health and their adaptation: empirical evidence from China
Climate Change
Chinese residents “implement appropriate protective measures” when temperatures exceed 30C, but underestimate the risks posed by temperatures of 25-30C, a new study said. This can lead to “significant health issues”, the paper warned. The authors combined meteorological data with results from the China family panel survey, which includes data from around 33,500 adults on hospital stays and self-reported “unhealthy status”. The paper found that increased healthcare expenditure and reduced physical activity are “two possible ways in which residents respond to climate change”.
China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org
The post China Briefing 6 February 2025: Emissions halt; ‘Green’ Asian Winter Games; US-China tariff war appeared first on Carbon Brief.
China Briefing 6 February 2025: Emissions halt; ‘Green’ Asian Winter Games; US-China tariff war
Australia’s new environmental standards are supposed to protect wildlife. Right now, they don’t.
We have one of the worst mammal extinction rates in the world. We’ve already lost 39 species, including the Christmas Island Shrew and the desert rat-kangaroo, while iconic species like the Hairy-Nosed Wombat, Pygmy blue whale and Swift Parrot continue to slide towards extinction. Forests are still being bulldozed at an alarming rate. Rivers and reefs are under serious pressure.
Fixing this sorry state of affairs was why the Federal Government promised to fix Australia’s broken national nature laws—a promise that culminated in the nature law reforms passed late last year.
A big part of these reforms is the creation of new “National Environmental Standards” — rules intended to guide decisions on projects that could damage nature.
But the Government’s latest draft standards—open for consultation until May 29th—fall dangerously short.
Instead of setting clear environmental guardrails, the draft rules risk making it easier for damaging projects to get approved, while nature continues to decline. Legal experts are warning that unless the standards are changed, they could weaken protections rather than strengthen them.
So what are these standards, exactly?
The new standards are a centrepiece of major reforms to the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act (EPBC Act), which were passed late last year and are designed to fix a broken environmental regulatory system. They are meant to set clear rules for what environmental protection should actually look like.
In simple terms, they’re supposed to answer questions like:
- What measures should developers be made to put in place to protect threatened species?
- How do we ensure the most important habitats and natural places are not hacked away, “death-by-a-thousand-cuts”-style, from ongoing development proposals?
- When should a project simply not go ahead?
- What rules should states follow if they’re in charge of assessing development projects?
- How do we make sure nature is actually improving, not just declining more slowly?
If designed and implemented properly, these standards could become the backbone of strong, effective reformed nature laws.
But right now, they leave huge loopholes open.
The biggest problem: process over outcomes
The biggest problem with the draft standards is that they focus too heavily on whether companies follow a process—not whether nature is genuinely protected in the end. That might sound technical, but it has real-world consequences.
Imagine a company wants to clear critical habitat for a threatened species. Under a strong system, the key question should be: Will this project cause unacceptable or significant environmental harm?
But under the current draft standards, if the company follows the required steps and paperwork, the project could still be considered acceptable — even if the damage to nature is clear.
This is deeply ineffective. Destruction that checks bureaucratic check-boxes is still destruction. The standards should enforce the protection of nature—not just the ticking of procedural boxes.
A smaller definition of habitat could leave wildlife exposed
Another alarming change in the draft standards is the narrowing of how “habitat” is defined, which could have serious consequences for wildlife protection.
Habitat is more than just the exact spot where an animal is seen sleeping, nesting or feeding today; we need to think more holistically about habitat as a connected network of ecosystems that species may rely on to survive, including breeding grounds, migration corridors, areas used during drought or fire, and places they may need to move to as the climate changes.
But the draft standards effectively shrink the areas considered important enough to protect by defining habitat as only very small areas that if destroyed would certainly send the species extinct, rather than habitat which maintains and restores healthy populations able to thrive well into the future.
For animals already under pressure from habitat destruction and climate change, protecting only the bare minimum is a dangerous approach. In practice, that could mean that places which are essential for threatened species to recover and survive long term are destroyed just because they are not classified under the standards as ‘habitat’—a lose-lose outcome for biodiversity and the Australian government’s nature protection goals.
Offsets are still doing too much heavy lifting
Australians have heard the promise before: “Yes, this area will be damaged — but it’ll be offset somewhere else.” In practice, environmental offsets have severely failed to replace what was lost.
You can’t instantly recreate a centuries-old forest. You can’t quickly rebuild complex wildlife habitat. And some ecosystems simply cannot be replaced once destroyed. Yet the draft standards still rely heavily on offsets rather than prioritising avoiding harm in the first place.
The standards must reduce their reliance on offsets, and instead prioritise actual habitat protection. Because once extinction happens, there’s no offset for it.
Australia cannot afford another backwards step on nature
The Albanese Government came to office promising to end Australia’s extinction crisis and repair national nature laws. But this will be a broken promise if the huge loopholes in the National Environmental Standards aren’t addressed.
Right now, Australia is losing wildlife and ecosystems faster than they can recover. Scientists have warned for years that incremental change is no longer enough.
Strong standards could help turn things around by:
- stopping destruction in critical habitat,
- setting firm limits on environmental harm,
- requiring genuine recovery for nature,
- and making decision-makers accountable for real outcomes rather than process.
If the Government locks in rules that prioritise process over protection, Australia risks entrenching the very system that caused the crisis in the first place.
What needs to change?
The Government still has time to fix the draft standards before they are finalised over the next month.
Greenpeace Australia Pacific is calling on the government to:
- ensure decisions are based on outcomes, not just process
- ensure that all important habitat is protected, not just narrow areas
- ensuring that death-by-a-thousand-cuts is avoided by considering the “cumulative impacts” of multiple projects in a region
- ensuring offsets are only used as an absolute last resort
Australians were promised stronger nature laws—not more loopholes. Australia’s wildlife cannot afford another missed opportunity.You can help ensure the Federal Government’s final standards put to parliament are as strong as possible by putting in a quick submission here.
Climate Change
Duke University Plans a Data Center It Says Will Boost ‘Environmental Responsibility and Sustainability’
The small project is underway at Central Campus, with room for expansion. Its energy usage could complicate the university’s climate goals.
DURHAM, N.C.—Duke University plans to build a small data center at Central Campus, potentially the first of several similar-size projects, which has raised questions among some faculty about whether the energy- and water-intensive endeavors could derail the institution’s climate commitments.
The UN General Assembly on Wednesday adopted a “historic” resolution calling on countries to comply with their climate obligations, as outlined in a landmark advisory opinion issued last year by the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
Last July, in the opinion first requested by the Pacific island state of Vanuatu, the world’s top court ruled that harming the climate by increasing fossil fuel production may constitute an “international wrongful act”. This could result in affected countries claiming compensation from those responsible, the court said.
To follow up on the ICJ ruling, a dozen nations led by Vanuatu submitted a proposal to the UN’s main deliberative body to recognise the advisory opinion and identify ways of implementing it.
Several large oil-producing nations mounted a late push to weaken the text by introducing last-minute amendments, but the General Assembly rejected those and adopted the resolution with 141 countries in favour at a plenary session in New York.
The resolution urges countries to implement measures to cut carbon emissions, including by tripling renewable energy capacity, “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems”, and phasing out “inefficient” fossil fuel subsidies.
It also requests the UN Secretary-General to draft a report “containing ways to advance compliance with all obligations in relation to the court’s findings” by next year’s UN General Assembly in September 2027.
Pacific islands celebrate “historic” resolution
The group of Pacific island nations, which led the diplomatic push for the resolution, as well as Latin American nations and the European Union, celebrated its adoption as a “historic” moment, while some countries noted the persistence of diverging views.
Belize’s UN representative Janine Coye-Felson said in a statement on behalf of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) that the General Assembly resolution, as well as the ICJ advisory opinion, are important because “climate change is not governed only” by the Paris Agreement, but that “climate justice requires the application of the full breath of international law”.
“When future generations look back at this moment, they will ask whether we rose to meet the defining crisis of our time with the full force of international law. Today, this General Assembly answers: yes,” she told the plenary.
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Electrification emerges as COP31 priority
The Turkish COP31 President has called for “a truly global conversation” about shifting the global energy system from fossil fuels to electricity -
Santa Marta summit kick-starts work on key steps for fossil fuel transition
The conference offers some 60 nations help to develop roadmaps to shift their economies away from coal, oil and gas, and make international trade green
The EU said in a statement during the session that, with the adoption of the resolution, countries are moving beyond “simply recognising” the ICJ’s work and instead “actively upholding the legal integrity” of the multilateral system by seeking to implement the court’s recommendations.
Yet the bloc also warned the process that follows must not “seek to establish new mechanisms or engage in any determination of state responsibility”, referring in particular to the upcoming report by the Secretary-General. Earlier drafts of the resolution contained proposals to establish a register of climate-driven loss and damage and a dedicated compensation mechanism, but these were removed during negotiations on the text.
France’s ambassador to the UN, Jérôme Bonnafont, highlighted the resolution’s provision to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, and said “science clearly establishes their role in climate change”. The recent increase in oil and gas prices, which have soared because of the war in Iran, “underscores the cost vulnerability of this dependence”, he added.
Push-back by oil-producing nations
Some oil-producing countries – among them the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia – were critical of the new resolution, arguing that it creates “quasi-binding” obligations from an advisory opinion that should be non-binding, and rejected the request for a report from the Secretary-General.
“This is a direct duplication of work that is being done at the [UN climate convention],” said Russia’s delegate. “Creating a parallel process will waste resources, will undermine the fragile consensus at the conference of the parties and will lead to the fragmentation of the climate regime.”
In an effort to weaken the resolution, a group of seven oil-producing Middle Eastern states – including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iran – tabled four last-minute amendments proposing to delete certain paragraphs and softening the language on the obligations of states.
Webinar: From Santa Marta to Bonn – where next for the fossil fuel transition?
In response, Pacific island nations said these amendments sought to “reopen provisions that were [the] subject of extensive negotiation”, while the EU added that they were “difficult to reconcile with the spirit of cooperation”. They were all rejected in a series of votes.
The US, for its part, described the resolution as “highly problematic” and denied the obligation of preventing climate harm beyond its borders, as well as the assertion that climate change is an “unprecedented civilizational challenge”. The country urged others to vote against the resolution.
India, which abstained, said the text failed to address the need for climate finance flows from developed to developing countries, which is “a serious omission”. The Indian delegate pointed to the absence of the term “climate finance” in the text, which “deserves more attention in a resolution that deals with the obligations of states”.
“Turning point in accountability”, activists say
WWF’s climate chief and former COP president Manuel Pulgar-Vidal said the General Assembly’s vote was a step forward that “raises the pressure on all states to act in line with their obligations”.
Rebecca Brown, CEO of the Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL), said the UN resolution shows that “multilateralism works” and with it, countries “carry the ICJ’s historic ruling forward as a roadmap for climate action and accountability”.
“By acting together, we can prevent further climate harm, in line with science and the law, by speeding up a just and equitable transition away from fossil fuels, protecting climate-vulnerable communities, and advancing climate justice,” she added in a statement.
Vishal Prasad, director of Pacific Islands Students Fighting Climate Change – a group of young people who first made the push for an advisory opinion from the ICJ – said “the world has not only reaffirmed that ruling, but committed to making it a reality”.
“This must be a turning point in accountability for damaging the climate. Communities on the frontlines, like in the Pacific, have been waiting far too long and continue to pay too high a price for the actions of others,” he said. “The journey of this idea from classrooms in the Pacific to The Hague and the United Nations gives us continued hope that when people organise, the world can be moved to act.”
The post UN General Assembly backs “climate obligations” set by world’s top court appeared first on Climate Home News.
UN General Assembly backs “climate obligations” set by world’s top court
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