Published

8 months ago

October 2, 2025

Alice Rush

Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.

China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

China’s first-ever pledge to cut emissions

NEW CLIMATE TARGETS: In a video address to the UN last week, China’s president Xi Jinping personally pledged to cut his nation’s economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions to 7-10% below peak levels by 2035, while “striving to do better”, reported state broadcaster CCTV. Sky News called it a “landmark moment”, saying that this marked the first time China “made a commitment to cut its greenhouse gas emissions”. The announced target, along with other commitments such as expanding wind and solar power capacity to more than six times 2020 levels, will be included in China’s 2035 “nationally determined contribution” (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, which has not yet been submitted, reported BBC News. Carbon Brief published a detailed analysis of the announcement and hosted a webinar with climate policy experts to discuss their assessments. More details of the webinar can be found below.

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AMBITION CRITICISM: In an article for Just Security, Sue Biniaz, former US principal deputy special envoy for climate, wrote that “at and around the UN event, the chatter regarding the announcement was generally negative”, adding that the announced target was “even lower than expected”. EU climate chief Wopke Hoekstra described China’s new climate pledge as falling “well short of what we believe is both achievable and necessary”, reported Reuters. In response, China accused the EU of “being slow to act on its own climate targets”, according to another Reuters report. The outlet said that Hoekstra’s “criticism of China’s new climate pledges shows ‘double standards and selective blindness’, China’s foreign ministry said on Friday”.

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MEDIA REACTION: Media outlets including the Guardian and the Times raised questions about the ambition of the target. Similarly, Bloomberg said it was “seen as too modest to put the nation on a path to net-zero and galvanise global climate action”. An editorial in state-run newspaper China Daily, however, called the target a “milestone in the nation’s long-term road map toward green, low-carbon development”. Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, wrote in a comment for the New York Times that China’s targets “may seem tepid”, but “beneath them is a bold wager: that steady action, powered by industrial strength and vision shielded from political volatility, will ultimately do more to contribute to the global climate effort than lofty, fickle promises ever could”.

Electricity demand growth slowed

PRESSURE DROP: The rate of growth in China’s electricity demand slowed in August, with “cooler” weather helping to “take some pressure off the grid”, reported Bloomberg, citing official data. The outlet added that electricity consumption rose 5% in August, compared with 8.6% in July and 5.4% in June. Still, China’s electricity demand in both July and August exceeded 1,000 terawatt hours – the first time this happened globally, said Chinese finance media outlet Cailianpress. According to a report by the China Electricity Council, China’s “electrification rate” has already surpassed that of “major developed economies in Europe and the US”, wrote China Energy Net.

MARKET PRICE: Two coastal provinces, Guangdong and Shandong, have used China’s new market-based pricing system for renewables to “steer clean-energy investment to the areas that suit them best, reported Bloomberg. According to the outlet, Guangdong, which is “surrounded by relatively shallow waters”, offered “generous rates to offshore wind”. In Shandong, the pricing system was used to “correct course and reduce a glut of solar power that has built up over the years”, added the outlet.

Steel to face new controls

CAPACITY CURBS: China has released a work plan for 2025-26 to “ban new steel capacity and reduce production, in the latest move to help balance supply and demand”, reported Bloomberg. The plan came after Beijing promised to cut steel output at the Two Sessions in March, according to the outlet. It also called for “significantly enhancing green, low-carbon and digital development levels” of the country’s steel sector, according to the industry news outlet BJX News. Financial media outlet Caixin said “more than 80% of China’s crude steel production capacity has completed ultra-low-emission retrofits, according to the China Iron and Steel Association”.

ETS EXPANSION: Meanwhile, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued draft allowance plans for the steel, cement and aluminium sectors for 2024 and 2025 in its national emissions trading scheme (ETS), reported Cailian Press. (The ETS was expanded to these sectors from 2024 in a draft policy, published late last year and covered by Carbon Brief. The expansion, which means that the ETS covers 60% of China’s emissions, rather than 40% previously, was confirmed in March.) Meanwhile, a report published by the State Council said that a total of 189m tonnes of carbon dioxide was traded on the ETS in 2024, according to Xinhua.

Typhoon Ragasa

DAMAGES IN ASIA: Nearly two million people in southern China had to be “relocated” after Typhoon Ragasa made landfall in Guangdong province last Wednesday, reported state news agency Xinhua. BBC News described the typhoon as the “world’s strongest storm this year” and said “a month’s worth of rain” was expected in the city of Zhuhai in one day. In the wider Asia-Pacific region, dozens of people were killed, while flights as well as businesses were also strongly affected, said the Financial Times.

CLIMATE CHANGE: Ragasa was intensified by “unusually hot oceans”, which can be linked to climate change, according to “preliminary studies” covered by the Hong Kong Free Press. “Rapid attribution” analysis by the French research group ClimaMeter concluded that cyclones such as Ragasa are around 10% wetter than they would have been in the past, added the outlet. Benjamin Horton, dean of the school of energy and environment at City University of Hong Kong, also linked Ragasa to climate change, saying extreme weather events “should not be happening at such regularity, so late in the season, of such intensity, of such high winds and of such big storm surges”, according to the SCMP.

40%

The share of China’s total solar capacity in 2024 made up by distributed photovoltaics – typically installed on rooftops – according to a report from the International Energy Agency, which said the share was up from 30% four years earlier. The report added that the “stock of electric cars grew by more than 650% over the same period”.

Spotlight

Experts: What China’s new climate pledge means for the world

Last week, president Xi Jinping announced several new pledges that will be included in China’s upcoming 2035 nationally determined contribution (NDC).

Carbon Brief held a webinar with several experts on what the new announcement means for China’s climate trajectory and the global energy transition. Below are the highlights of their answers. A recording of the webinar is available on the Carbon Brief website.

Ryna Cui, associate director and associate research professor at the University of Maryland Center for Global Sustainability

Our assessment of a plausible high ambition pathway for China [showed it] delivering a 27-31% reduction in total greenhouse gas emissions by 2035…In addition, we also model[led] a current policy pathway for China, which…also achieve[d] a 10-14% reduction…Both scenarios suggest a larger reduction compared to the 7-10% overall emission reduction target.

…

Under our current policy scenario for 2035, wind and solar total installed capacity is over 4,000 gigawatt (GW). It is over 4,700 gigawatt under a high ambition [scenario]. [The target announced by Xi is for 3,600GW by 2035.]

…

The non-fossil share of total primary energy…is 40% [under current policies] and 48% [under high ambition], compared to the 30% target announced [by Xi].

Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst and co-founder at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air

At [China’s] rate of clean-energy growth, there is no more space for…coal, in general, to grow. So if you were to announce targets of 20-30% reduction in carbon dioxide, then you have to recognise that there’s going to be a major downsizing of the coal industry.

That seems to be a decision that China’s leadership is still postponing. Are you going to put reins on this clean-energy boom, or are you going to accept that the coal industry has to start downsizing in a big way?

…

These targets really, to me, show that the leadership was not prepared to resolve that conflict and say that coal is the one that has to give.

Anika Patel, China analyst at Carbon Brief

[In terms of what’s next,] one of the big signals…is COP30. What else will be announced that could signal China’s relative level of climate ambition?

Will there be quantitative targets placed on things like climate finance?…Will there be more announcements around south-south cooperation? What will China’s signaling on fossil fuels – especially coal – in the final COP30 outcome be?

…

At the same time, we’ve got the 15th five-year plan coming up…We’re expecting a new set of overarching targets for 2026-2030, and traditionally there have always been a couple of climate targets [among the plan’s headline targets]. From that, we can expect to start seeing signals about what the level of climate ambition for the next five years will be.

Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute

There has been a very strong alignment now in the Chinese system between its decarbonisation goals and its economic development agenda…I think that strong alignment is what will propel the country to cut more carbon over time.

I also think that when you begin to realise [that]…you will then begin to realise it is not necessarily just the [state-level] EU-China climate relationship…[or] COPs that we should pay attention to. New actors are emerging.

We need to pay attention to BYD [and] CATL. We need to pay attention to [low-carbon commercial and investment activity in] Brazil…[and] Indonesia. Those factors and actors, over the next ten years or so, will begin to drive carbon-emission reduction in a more significant and meaningful way than countries’ NDCs.

Watch, read, listen

‘NEW ENERGY’: A comment on the “high-quality development” of China’s “new energy” sector was published by the Communist party’s Study Times – an official newspaper edited by the central school of the Chinese Communist party – under the byline of Wang Hongzhi, head of the National Energy Administration.

HIGH-LEVEL COMMENT: The Communist party-affiliated newspaper People’s Daily published an article under the byline Zhong Caiwen, used to indicate party leaders’ views on economic affairs, saying “green development is the defining feature of China’s high-quality economic growth”.

EXTREME WEATHER: Chinese media outlet 21st Century Business Herald conducted an interview with Xu Xiaofeng, former deputy director of the China Meteorological Administration and president of the China Meteorological Service Association, who talked about the “high intensity of extreme weather events” under climate change.
CARBON MARKETS: Ma Aimin, former deputy director of the National Centre for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, told Jiemian that China’s carbon market (ETS) needed to enhance its “trading activity” and that the next two years will be a “critical period” for voluntary carbon trading (CCERs).

New science

Development policy affects coastal flood exposure in China more than sea-level rise

Nature Climate Change

Exposure to coastal flooding in China over the 21st century will depend more on “policy decisions” than the rate of sea-level rise, according to new research. The authors combined simulations of population and land use changes with flood models that incorporate factors such as sea level rise and storm surges. They said their paper offers a “more nuanced understanding of coastal risks” than other existing assessments.

Spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of wildfire CO2 emissions in China from 2001 to 2022

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

Annual CO2 emissions from forest and shrub fires in China decreased over 2001-22, but increased for cropland fires, a new study found. The analysis noted that the upward trend in cropland fire emissions is primarily in the country’s north-east and is “closely linked to region-specific straw-burning policies”. The researchers found that emissions from grassland fires remained relatively stable over the two decades assessed.

China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org

The post China Briefing 2 October 2025: China’s new pledge; electricity demand slows; steel overcapacity appeared first on Carbon Brief.

China Briefing 2 October 2025: China’s new pledge; electricity demand slows; steel overcapacity

Climate Change

On the Historic Route From Selma to Montgomery, an AI Cloud Looms

Published

7 hours ago

June 10, 2026

Alice Rush

In this rural Alabama community, some residents can’t flush their toilets. Developers want to build a state-of-the-art data center next door.

By Lee Hedgepeth

HAYNEVILLE, Ala.—When Alabamians marched from Selma to Montgomery in 1965 to demand voting rights for African Americans, Highway 80 became their path toward freedom.

On the Historic Route From Selma to Montgomery, an AI Cloud Looms

Climate Change

Guest post: How a record-high ‘energy imbalance’ is driving global warming

Published

9 hours ago

June 10, 2026

Alice Rush

The planet is heating up more quickly than ever before.

For decades, greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activity have been building up in the atmosphere and trapping ever-higher levels of heat.

The resulting asymmetry between incoming solar energy and energy radiated back out into space – known as “Earth’s energy imbalance” – provides a direct measure of the extent to which humans are disrupting the Earth’s climate system.

This imbalance is growing and in 2025 its 10-year average reached a record high, indicating that global temperatures could increase at even higher rates in the future.

This is among the headline findings of the latest “indicators of global climate change” (IGCC) report, published in the journal Earth System Science Data, which tracks changes in the climate system on an annual basis.

The report, now in its fourth iteration, has been produced by dozens of scientists from around the world.

Its findings are designed to fill the gap between Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) science reports, which are published every 5-7 years.

In this article, we unpack the IGCC report, which explores how human activity is driving a growing energy imbalance and why monitoring systems to track global climate are so crucial.

(For more on previous IGCC reports, see Carbon Brief’s coverage in 2023, 2024 and 2025.)

Greenhouse gas emissions remain at an all-time high

Global greenhouse gas emissions are continuing to increase, mostly as a result of the use of fossil fuels. However, deforestation, agriculture and industrial processes also play an important role.

Glossary

CO₂ equivalent: Greenhouse gases can be expressed in terms of carbon dioxide equivalent, or CO2e. For a given amount, different greenhouse gases trap different amounts of heat in the atmosphere, a quantity known as… Read More

Over the most recent decade (2015-24), emissions stood at the equivalent of 54.6bn tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) per year. In 2024, the most recent year for which we have complete data, emissions reached 56.8GtCO2e.

As the chart below shows, these emissions have pushed up atmospheric levels of CO2, methane and nitrous oxide. In 2025, concentrations of these gases reached 425.6 parts per million (ppm), 1936.3 parts per billion (ppb) and 339.4ppb, respectively.

This represents a rise of 3.8%, 3.8% and 2.2%, respectively, since the 2019 levels reported in the IPCC’s sixth assessment report (AR6).

Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 (yellow), methane (blue) and nitrous oxide (green) over 2000-25. The grey-shaded region represents continuing changes since AR6. Note the different vertical scales for each gas. Credit: Forster et al. (2026)

At the same time, declines in emissions of aerosols such as sulphur dioxide, partly as a result of efforts to tackle air pollution, are increasing the Earth’s energy imbalance. This is because aerosols have a cooling effect on the Earth’s climate, counteracting warming from CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions.

(Tackling sulphur dioxide, alongside other particulate emissions, remains critical because the immediate health and environmental damage they cause far outweighs their short-term cooling effect on the climate.)

The Earth’s energy imbalance is rising rapidly

The Earth’s energy imbalance has long been recognised as a key indicator of how the climate is being affected by human activities.

However, it is only in the last few decades that scientists have been able to record temperature changes deep enough in the ocean to accurately quantify it.

Earth’s energy imbalance measures how quickly excess heat is accumulating in every part of the Earth system, primarily in the ocean, but also in land, ice and atmosphere.

Through this accumulation of heat, the energy imbalance influences the rate of sea level rise and ice melt across the world, as well as increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as storms, floods and droughts.

Without human influence, the Earth’s energy imbalance would be close to zero.

But, as greenhouse gas emissions have built up in the atmosphere, the imbalance has been growing since the 1970s. Recent increases to Earth’s energy imbalance have outpaced those projections made by climate models — indicating the planet could see more warming than expected in the future.

As the right-hand chart below shows, the imbalance is now at a record high, having more than doubled over the past two decades.

It has increased by around 40% since 2019, from an average 0.79 watts per square metre (Wm2) over 2006-18, according to IPCC AR6, to 1.12Wm2 over 2013-25.

The left-hand chart shows how heat is accumulating in the ocean (blues), ice (grey), land (orange) and atmosphere (purple).

Left: Observed changes in the Earth heat inventory for the period 1971-2020. Right: Estimates of the Earth energy imbalance for successive overlapping 20-year periods and the most recent decade (right). Shaded regions indicate the very likely range (90-100 % probability), while the stars show the CERES (NASA Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System) estimates for comparison. Credit: Forster et al. (2026)

Global temperature rise

The excess heat building up in the climate system from the energy imbalance is pushing up global temperatures at a record rate of 0.27C per decade.

We estimate that human-induced warming – the amount of observed global surface

temperature increase attributable to both the direct and indirect effects of human activities – reached 1.37C in 2025. This has risen from 1.0C in 2017, as reported in IPCC AR6.

While natural variability in the climate system – such as El Niño or La Niña events – can also influence temperatures year-to-year, the upward temperature trend we are seeing is being driven by the persistent imbalance in energy.

We now expect global temperatures to exceed the Paris Agreement limit of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels around the year 2030.

This is significant because 1.5C has been identified as the critical dividing line between manageable climate risks and catastrophic, potentially irreversible damage to global ecosystems and human societies.

Heat accumulating throughout the Earth system

While heat is accumulating throughout the Earth system, it is not being distributed evenly around the globe.

Since the 1970s, around 90% of this heat has been taken up by the ocean, affecting marine ecosystems, ocean circulation patterns, sea level rise and climate extremes.

For example, the number of marine heatwave days – periods of unusually high sea surface temperatures – has more than tripled globally since the early 1990s. The year 2025 alone saw 65 days of marine heatwaves – meaning they occurred, on average, more than one day a week.

Meanwhile, the cryosphere – the portion of the Earth made up of frozen water, including glaciers, ice sheets and permafrost – is experiencing widespread ice loss and thawing in response to the growing energy imbalance. This affects ecosystems, sea level rise and infrastructure in polar and high-latitude regions.

Rapid warming has also resulted in record extreme temperatures over land, with average maximum temperatures for any single day over 2016-25 around 1.92C above pre-industrial levels). This is an increase of almost half a degree compared to the previous decade (2006-15).

Sea level rise and the energy imbalance

Sea level rise provides one of the clearest long-term signals of a changing planet.

It is closely linked to Earth’s energy imbalance. As heat accumulates in the ocean, water expands, raising sea levels. Meanwhile, a warming land and atmosphere means addition of water to the oceans through melting of glaciers and ice sheets, also adding to sea level rise.

Over the long-term, sea levels have been rising, on average, at a rate of around 1.8mm per year since 1901, totalling a record 23cm in 2025. This is increasing the risk of coastal flooding, erosion and habitat loss in many low-lying areas around the world.

This rise can be seen in the left-hand chart below, which shows observed global sea level changes from tide gauges (grey and blue dashed lines) and satellites (red dashed lines) since 1901. The solid lines indicate the average across multiple datasets.

Sea level rise is accelerating consistent with the observed increase in Earth’s energy imbalance. Over 2006-25, sea levels have risen at a rate of 3.67mm per year – more than double the rate of 1.69mm per year seen over 1976-95.

This increasing rate is shown in the right-hand figure below, which shows four successive overlapping 20-year periods and the most-recent decade.

(Last year’s transition from El Niño to weak La Niña conditions affected global rainfall patterns and led to a small and temporary fall in global average sea level in 2025. This explains the slight decrease in rate of sea level rise for the most recent decade, which is affected more than the 20-year period 2006-25.)

Left: Global average sea level rise over 1901-2025, relative to a 1995-2014 baseline. Individual timeseries are shown with dashed lines, while the black solid line shows the average (from tide gauges and satellites) used in AR6 and the solid red line shows the 1993-2025 average from satellites. Right: Global mean sea-level rates (in mm per year) for four successive overlapping 20-year periods and the most-recent decade. The shading indicates the very likely range. Credit: Forster et al. (2026)

The bigger picture

Despite greenhouse gas emissions not increasing as rapidly as in the 2000s, this year’s IGCC findings continue to show how far and how fast the climate is changing due to human activity.

A significant increase in decarbonisation efforts in the second half of this decade is required to slow down the rate of human-caused warming and limit the escalation of climate risks and impacts.

These findings, like many others produced by scientists across the globe, rely on international expertise, partnership and the maintenance and availability of global climate datasets and the global observing programmes that underpin them.

This year’s edition of IGCC used more than 40 global datasets produced by research teams around the world, including the NASA satellite record of the Earth’s energy imbalance and the ARGO deep ocean float network.

However, a number of long-term monitoring programmes could be threatened by funding decisions made by governments around the world, most notably the Trump administration in the US.

Local meteorological data and weather balloon measurement programmes in many countries have declined in recent years, especially in Africa, the west Pacific and South America. This reduces scientists’ ability to monitor and understand key indicators of climate change.

This is not just an issue for climate science. Many of these observations are key to weather forecasts and systems that provide early warning for extreme weather. For example, media reports have suggested that recent reductions in weather balloon measurements in Alaska led to a lack of warnings for a recent winter storm.

The continuity and integrity of the climate observations that scientists use to understand how the climate is changing depends on effective and sustained coordination by international organisations, such as the Global Climate Observing System, the World Meteorological Organization and World Climate Research Programme.

Without this data and its coordination, future assessments will be much more difficult at a time when urgent climate action is needed.