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China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
Critical mineral ‘deal’
TRANSITION TURMOIL: US president Donald Trump said China and the US reached a “deal” after talks were held in London, reported the BBC News, adding that “he said China had agreed to supply US companies with magnets and rare earth metals”. Shortly after the announcement, a Chinese manufacturer confirmed that it received “export permits” to countries including the US, according to Bloomberg. China’s earlier move to impose export curbs on critical minerals had “hit” the global auto industry, said Reuters. In answering Carbon Brief’s question of how the recent mineral disputes may affect global energy transition, Tian Jietang, director-general of the research department of industrial economy at the Development Research Center of the State Council said that the minerals are a “very important factor” for “new energy” development, but the “reason” behind the turmoil is “not from China”. China is “always open” to cooperate with the world for “faster green transition”, he added at an Asia House event.
‘FIRM’ CLIMATE ‘ACTIVIST’: Tian emphasised that China has always been a staunch contributor to global “green transition”. A similar line appeared in a comment article in the Communist party-affiliated newspaper People’s Daily, which called China a “firm activist and important contributor to the world’s green development”. In another People’s Daily article, the newspaper explained that the “direct reason” behind China’s “insist[ence] on carbon reduction” is that “climate warming threatens human survival and the continuation of civilisation”. It added that such “green and low-carbon transition” is also good for China’s economy and society. China Daily said the US’s tariffs on “clean energy products”, on the contrary, are “negatively affecting both [the] US and global green energy”.
Renewable pricing shift
MARKET PRICE: China entered a ”new stage of market-based pricing” for renewables on 1 June, after a notification was issued earlier this year, reported local newspaper Beijing Daily. The newspaper said projects that started operating before June would be paid prices pegged to the local coal-fired electricity price, in line with the previous policy, whereas electricity prices from projects operating after June will not be “protected”. (See the Carbon Brief explainer on the new policy.) The Shanghai-based Paper said there had been a rush to complete renewable projects before the June deadline – new installations of solar in April alone soared by 215%. As of April, the total capacity of wind and solar reached 1,530 gigawatts (GW) in China, “surpassing” the capacity of thermal power, reported industry news outlet BJX News. However, some wind and solar projects have been halted as a result of the new policy, said financial publication Yicai. The outlet quoted an unnamed source saying the returns for some projects are “no longer economically feasible”.
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‘NEW ELECTRICITY SYSTEM’: Meanwhile, the plans to construct the “first batch of pilot projects” for a “new electricity system” was announced, reported BJX News. It added that according to a notification from the National Energy Administration (NEA), the pilot projects will focus on seven areas, including building “smart microgrids” and “virtual power plants”, better connecting clean energy “bases” to the rest of the country and developing “next-generation coal power”. Quoting experts, China Energy Net said that the success in building such a new system lies in transferring the current system from a “single” network to an “‘adaptability-early warning’ planning paradigm” over the next 15th “five-year plan” period (2026-30). The new system should be dominated by renewable energy and respond to risks, such as extreme weather, added the outlet. The NEA confirmed that “speeding up” plans for renewable energy over the next five-year plan period is one of its work priorities for the second half of the year, according to BJX News.
More plans issued as industry and oil set to drop
NEW SYSTEMS: China is aiming to build a “national standardised system for responding to climate change”, covering mitigation and adaptation, reported state news agency Xinhua. In an official Q&A, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) said that it led the drafting of the new system, issued jointly with 14 other departments. Separately, the Central Committee of the Communist party of China and the State Council said that China’s market-based approach to environmental issues, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions trading, should be “basically complete” by 2027, reported BJX News. This will include stronger links between the national emissions trading system (ETS) and related markets for “CCERs” and “GECs”, the outlet said. (The steel, cement and aluminium industries are being consulted over joining China’s national emissions trading system, ETS, according to a screenshot of a policy document circulating on social media. The document is not public, but its existence has been confirmed to Carbon Brief by multiple sources.)
INDUSTRY EMISSIONS: Meanwhile, the “national standards for product carbon footprints” for nine products, including electrolytic aluminium, chemical fibres and plastic, have been established, said the People’s Daily. It is estimated that the total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the industry sector could drop to 450m tonnes in 2060, down 95% from 2025, according to a joint report by the Tsinghua University, as well as Energy Foundation China and the Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning – a research institute under the MEE, reported China Science Daily.
FALLING OIL DEMAND: The overall demand for oil is set to decline in China, with the “faster adoption” of “new-energy vehicles” (NEVs) offsetting growth in other areas, reported state-run newspaper China Daily. The outlet added that NEVs and liquefied natural gas (LNG) heavy trucks played a “significant role” in reducing demand for “traditional fuels” in 2024. In addition, strong sales of electric trucks – boosted by government incentives – pushed down demand for diesel, which makes up over a quarter of Chinese oil demand, said Bloomberg. Another article by China Daily said that one incentive – the equipment trade-in policy – motivated more than 4m car trade-in applications between January and May 2025. It said more than half of applications in the first four months of the year were for NEVs. The total production and sales of NEV reached just under 6m units in the first five months of this year, a year-on-year increase of around 45%, reported Xinhua.
Extreme weather events
RAIN AND HEATWAVES: Yunnan province in southeast China was hit by “flash floods and mudslides” triggered by heavy rainfall, affecting around 5,000 residents, reported Reuters. Hunan province in the south also received pouring rain, which “seriously damaged” roads and power facilities, said state broadcaster CCTV. Heatwaves, in the meantime, swept northern China with temperatures in Hebei and Xinjiang province topping 40C, reported China National Emergency Broadcasting Center, a state-run media outlet. People’s Daily reported that the central government had allocated 45m yuan ($6.2m) of “natural disaster relief funds” to support flood control and disaster relief in Yunnan, a landslide in Tibet, and drought relief in Gansu and Ningxia.
11,000,000,000
The capacity of newly approved coal power plants in the first quarter of 2025 in watts – some 11 gigawatts (GW). This is 1GW more than the first six months of last year, according to a report from NGO Greenpeace, covered by Reuters. The newswire added that China had approved 289GW of new coal capacity over 2021-25 and that last year saw the first annual decline in approvals since 2021.
Spotlight
More than 100bn yuan poured into coal via ‘capacity payments’ in 2024
To date, there is no clear evidence that China’s coal “capacity payments” are helping coal-fired power plants to transfer into a “supporting role” with reduced output and emissions, according to a Carbon Brief guest post by Mingxin Zhang, coal researcher at Global Energy Monitor (GEM).
In the first year of the scheme, GEM finds that some 70-100% of China’s coal plants received payments totalling more than 100bn yuan ($14.8bn), boosting their revenues by around 5-8%.
In this issue, Carbon Brief highlights the key findings of the guest post. The full article is available on Carbon Brief’s website.
A ‘supporting’ role for coal
China rolled out a system of “capacity payments” in January 2024, with the aim of maintaining energy security while helping coal-fired power plants shift into a “supporting role”, alongside a growing share of variable renewables.
The mechanism essentially provides a monthly “standby” payment to eligible public coal plants, to help cover fixed operating costs during low production periods and to ensure that they are available to switch on during peak demand periods.
The national framework sets payment levels at either 30% or 50% of a benchmark coal plant’s total fixed costs, which was determined to be 330 yuan ($45.8) per kilowatt (kW).
To illustrate the mechanism’s impact, consider a 600 megawatt (MW) coal plant running at China’s 2024 average rates – operating for 4,628 hours a year and selling electricity at 0.452 yuan ($0.063) per kilowatt-hour (kWh).
If it receives a 30% capacity payment, roughly 59.4m yuan ($8.2m) would be added to its bank account, driving up the revenue by 4.7%. If the rate is at the 50% level, the bump rises to 7.9%.
Project year one
After one year of China’s programme, GEM’s analysis finds that, while the policy has contributed to coal power plant revenue, there is still little definitive evidence to show that it is helping coal plants reduce their operation, as intended.
Only 12 provincial governments – representing 38% of the country’s total operating coal capacity – have released lists of qualifying plants.
Based on the national policy’s payment levels and the 12 provincial recipient lists, the capacity payments in these provinces alone was more than 40bn yuan ($5.5bn).
Combining the total operating capacity and payment numbers from the 12 provinces that have published data with GEM’s most recent national capacity figures, the analysis estimates that the total national payout in 2024 was approximately 107bn yuan ($14.8bn).
(This figure is uncertain. Greater transparency would help clarify how the mechanism is functioning and its role in shaping the future of coal in China’s power system.)
Despite restrictions, most coal capacity is eligible
By cross-referencing provincial recipient lists with GEM’s Global Coal Plant Tracker (GCPT), it is possible to estimate the share of each province’s coal capacity receiving payments.
In almost all of the 12 provinces that published recipient lists, 70-100% of coal capacity is eligible for payments.
The programme said that only “compliant, public operating coal units” are eligible for the capacity payments and excluded three categories:
- “Captive” units, which exclusively serve specific industrial or commercial entities and operate independently from the public power grid;
- Units failing to meet energy efficiency, environmental performance, or operational flexibility standards;
- Units not compliant with the broader “national plan”, a criterion that is not further clarified in the guidelines.
In some cases, the scheme as implemented by individual provinces appears inconsistent with the eligibility criteria. For example, the Mancheng Mill power station in Hebei provides heat and power exclusively to a pulp and paper industrial park. This appears inconsistent with the “captive unit” exclusion.
Some newly built coal power plants and decades-old plants were also included. For example, Beihai Bebuwan power station Unit 4 in Guangxi began operating in March 2024 and was added to the recipient list in September 2024. Shenhua Panshan power station Units 1 and 2 in Tianjin began operating in 1994 and were retrofitted in 2023.
Finally, several provincial lists include smaller units, which may have limited ability to contribute to peak demand management. For example, five 57MW units from Shaoxing Binhai power station in Zhejiang were accredited for capacity payments.
Their actual contribution to evening peak load, when generation from solar and wind is low, is unclear from the list or other available provincial assessments.
More questions than answers?
There was only two months between the announcement of coal capacity payments and their implementation, leaving no time for pilot programmes or detailed feedback. This may help explain the ambiguities that have emerged during the provincial execution process.
Our analysis of the first year of the scheme suggests that provincial discretion has played a major role, with national criteria loosely applied in practice.
Moreover, there is no clear evidence to date that the mechanism has led to reduced coal utilisation hours, or significantly increased solar and wind generation.
Watch, read, listen
MINISTER’S COMMENT: Huang Runqiu, head of China’s MEE, penned an article about biodiversity for Qiushi, the Communist party’s leading magazine on ideology.
US NUCLEAR COMPONENT BAN: The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post published an analysis on China’s nuclear energy against the background of the US’s nuclear power controls.
CARON NEUTRALITY FORUM: A group of prominent Chinese scholars gathered in Shanghai and made speeches about China’s “dual-carbon goals”, according to the official WeChat account of the Research Institute of Carbon Neutrality of the Shanghai Jiao Tong University.
EV CCOMPETITION: BBC News international business correspondent Theo Leggett recorded a reading of his analysis of the expansion of Chinese cheap electric vehicles (EVs), as well as security concerns over them.
New science
Embracing the future, powering growth: An energy system renewed for China
Springer Nature
A book jointly written by oil major Shell and the Development Research Center of the State Council of China explored energy transition challenges and pathways in China. At the book’s launch event, attended by Carbon Brief, representatives from both organisations introduced the main arguments in the book, including challenges China faces in reaching its “dual-carbon” goals, its high reliance on coal and regional disparities between renewable energy resources and demands, as well as its commitment to reach carbon neutrality in just 30 years – a shorter timeline than most developed countries. The book outlines three “approaches” and five “supports”, including electrification, better carbon and electricity pricing, legal support and investing in energy storage, as well as other resources, such as hydrogen and nuclear.
A machine learning approach to carbon emissions prediction of the top eleven emitters by 2030 and their prospects for meeting Paris Agreement targets
Scientific Reports
China, India, Japan, Canada, South Korea and Indonesia are projected to miss their 2030 emissions reduction targets by “significant margins”, according to new research. The authors used a machine learning approach to analyse data from 1990-2023 from the 11 highest emitting countries. They found that Russia is on track to exceed its reduction targets, while Germany and the US will “fall slightly short”. Iran and Saudi Arabia are expected to increase emissions rather than reduce them, according to the study. The authors say that “emerging economies require international collaboration and investment to support low-carbon transitions”.
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China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org
The post China Briefing 12 June 2025: Critical mineral exports; Electricity price; Coal ‘capacity payment’ appeared first on Carbon Brief.
China Briefing 12 June 2025: Critical mineral exports; Electricity price; Coal ‘capacity payment’
The UK has abandoned projects worth tens of millions of pounds that were meant to help protect Congo rainforests and support local people.
Together, these initiatives would have made up around half of the £200m that the UK pledged to support conservation in the Congo basin – the world’s second-largest rainforest.
When it hosted COP26 in Glasgow, the UK led a new initiative to end forest loss, which included a collective pledge by 12 donors of “at least” $1.5bn (£1.1bn) for Congo rainforest nations by 2025.
Development minister Jenny Chapman revealed last week that, as of 2024, the UK had only provided £39.8m towards this goal.
Alongside the US and much of Europe, the UK has significantly cut its aid budget in recent years, leading to much of its Congo rainforest spending being cancelled or reappraised.
The government says it still plans to “prioritise” rainforest regions, including the Congo basin, but civil society groups and MPs are concerned about the lack of “ring-fenced” forest funding in the UK’s new aid strategy.
COP pledge
At COP26, the UK – led by then prime minister Boris Johnson – launched the “Glasgow leaders’ declaration”, with a goal to “halt and reverse forest loss” by 2030. This was backed by more than 140 nations.
The UK also made various funding pledges, including £200m to protect the Congo basin, £350m for tropical forests in Indonesia and “up to £300m” for the Amazon.
These commitments target the world’s three largest rainforests, all of which face major forest loss due to threats such as agriculture, logging and climate change.
The Congo basin is the planet’s largest forested carbon sink. Yet, its six host nations are among the poorest in the world and face significant funding barriers.
This has global ramifications. An official UK assessment warned that “degradation or collapse” of the Amazon or Congo rainforests “threaten UK national security and prosperity”.
Forest cuts
Following successive aid cuts introduced by both the Conservative and then Labour governments – tracking a global trend – the UK’s Congo funding is under threat.
The Congo basin forest action programme (CBFA) was launched by the UK at COP27. It was explicitly set up to provide “roughly half” of the UK’s £200m Congo pledge.
CBFA set out to “empower central African nations”, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), with support for “community forests” and other measures to curb forest loss.
Now, after reporting delays, the UK has slashed the CBFA as part of the Labour government’s recent aid cuts, intended to free up money for defence spending.
Its original £90m budget has now been reduced to £18.8m. Government data shows that £15m of this has already been spent.
This is not the only Congo project that has been dropped due to this latest round of aid cuts.
The Congo part of the biodiverse landscapes fund – championed by the previous government and worth at least £12.3m – has been closed, just two years into its seven-year schedule.
Government documents reveal more Congo forest funding is at risk as the UK scales back its aid budget, including the UK’s two largest remaining projects in the region.
One initiative, intended to “incubate forest-friendly enterprises” in DRC, faces “reduc[ed] budgets”. Officials working on the other, while more optimistic, reported that the project may be forced to operate in fewer countries as the cuts set in.
Documents also reveal the difficulties that come when operating in the Congo, including “complex political economies” and, in Gabon, a military coup – which “complicated matters”.
‘Breaking promises’
Damian Fleming, a senior director of forests at WWF International tells Carbon Brief:
“Tropical forest countries are making long-term policy and development choices in expectation that international partners will honour their commitments.”
In a series of recent parliamentary responses, Chapman revealed that the UK had only spent £39.8m on Congo forest finance, as of 2024. (She declined to provide any information on the Indonesia and Amazon regional goals.)
Despite being presented as the UK’s “contribution” to the £1.1bn-by-2025 global goal agreed at COP26, the £200m target has a deadline of 2029.
Therefore, while the collective goal has been met, the UK’s contribution so far has been relatively small.
Zac Goldsmith, a former Conservative minister who oversaw the forest targets at COP26, tells Carbon Brief that, in his view, the UK has “discarded” its regional pledges:
“We have gone from being perhaps the leader on protecting nature internationally to breaking promises to countries around the world for whom the environment is an existential issue.”
Future targets
The Labour government says it has met the five-year “climate finance” target of £11.6bn that expires this year.
Ministers also say the government has met “and exceeded” the £3bn and £1.5bn sub-goals for “preserving nature” and forests, respectively, within the £11.6bn. These are the funding streams that include support for the Congo basin and other rainforests.
The UK has funded a variety of projects in line with its forest goals, including mangrove restoration in Indonesia, support for carbon-offsetting projects in Brazil and promoting “forest stewardship” among farmers in Cameroon.
Chapman has stated that the UK will continue to “prioritise” the Congo rainforest, in line with its new plan for aid spending in Africa. The UK even helped to launch a new “call to action” for Congo basin funding at COP30 last year.
The UK government also says it supported the creation of Brazil’s flagship “Tropical Forest Forever Facility” (TFFF). However, so far it has not provided any funding for the facility.
When the government announced a new climate finance pledge for 2026 onwards, it stressed that nature would still be a “focus” and said it would also generate billions in “climate and nature positive investments”. Nevertheless, it dropped the “ring-fenced” amounts for nature and forests that had appeared in its previous pledge.
The UK, alongside other developed countries, has pledged to provide biodiversity finance to developing countries, under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) – a non-binding global pact to halt and reverse nature loss by 2030.
Sarah Champion, chair of the international development committee of MPs, says “sub-pledges” for nature and forests are a “cost-effective and impactful” way to ensure this finance is provided, alongside climate finance. She tells Carbon Brief that she was “concerned” about the move away from this approach:
“When the minister recently appeared before the international development committee, I was concerned to hear her characterise this shift as a ‘gamble’.”
A government spokesperson tells Carbon Brief:
“We remain committed to providing finance for forests, including in the Congo basin, as a core element of our overall climate funding.”
A shorter version of this article was first published in Cropped, Carbon Brief’s fortnightly newsletter that provides a digest of food, land and nature news, on 15 July 2026. Subscribe for free.
The post UK withdraws millions in funding from world’s second-largest rainforest in Congo appeared first on Carbon Brief.
UK withdraws millions in funding from world’s second-largest rainforest in Congo
Climate Change
Cropped 15 July 2026: Uganda starves | Trump opens endangered habitats | UK cuts rainforest aid
We handpick and explain the most important stories at the intersection of climate, land, food and nature over the past fortnight.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cropped email newsletter.
Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
Global drought and heat
DRY THEN WET: A recent heatwave and months of low rainfall has led to a prolonged drought for Uganda, resulting in at least 16 deaths from hunger and significant crop losses, reported BBC News. Bastille Post Global suggested that “a developing El Niño later this year could bring heavier rainfall to parts of the region, raising the risk of flooding in areas now struggling with drought”.
FUNDING FOOD: The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) have appealed for $200m in funding to help African nations deal with the impact of El Niño, stated Deutsche Welle. This would target 22 high-risk countries with measures, including “cash transfers, climate-resilient seeds, livestock protection and flood control.” The Guardian explained how El Niño could still “cause a severe shock to global food prices lasting into 2028”.
FARMING FEARS: Extreme weather has devastated agriculture across the world. India saw its driest June in 12 years, reported BBC News, and France has had a “double-digit production” decline, according to Le Monde. The Financial Times reported that farmers in the UK are mitigating the impacts of extreme heat by eliminating “chemicals and intensive ploughing to improve soil quality so it retains water”.
EURO FIRES: Wildfires have spread across Europe, with Spain reporting at least 12 deaths so far, according to the Guardian, and France experiencing road closures, said Reuters. Wildfire Today reported that the most extreme conditions are “across France, Spain and northern Portugal, the Alpine arc extending into northern Italy, the south of the UK and south-east Ireland”. CNN explained how “the climate crisis is driving hotter, drier weather, which is setting the stage for fiercer fire seasons”.
Endangering species
REDEFINING HARM: The Trump administration “reversed decades of longstanding environmental law protecting endangered species…opening up sensitive habitats…to drilling, mining, farming and real estate development”, reported CNN. According to the story, the change “redefines what constitutes ‘harm’” to endangered species, which historically prohibited habitat modification or degradation. Agence France-Presse reported that US environmental groups sued the Trump government over the move, arguing that it had violated “common sense, biological science and federal law”.
OPEN SEASON: Reuters reported that the change “limits the reach of the 50-year-old Endangered Species Act” (ESA), which is a “key regulatory consideration” when granting permits for “oil and gas, mining, electric transmission and other operations on federal lands and water”. Legal scholars told the New York Times the US government “was acting without conducting scientific research into the impact” of the change, while the National Mining Association “applauded the announcement”.
News and views
- INTERNATIONAL WATERS: After a significant delay, the UK ratified the Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction Agreement (BBNJ), also known as the High Seas Treaty. Oceanographic detailed how this will allow for “marine protected areas across international waters for the first time”, but also stressed that the “hard part” starts now.
- SCOPE-FREE: The world’s largest meat supplier JBS “scrapped a key climate goal” in its net-zero plan that accounts for its suppliers’ emissions, “which make up the vast bulk of the company’s environmental footprint”, reported the Financial Times. The company told the paper it was difficult to control these “indirect” emissions.
- DEEP TROUBLE: Pacific gray whales are facing a “catastrophic die-off” as sea-ice loss threatens their food sources, said the Guardian. Separately, conservationists warned that more than half of all molluscs that “cluster around underwater vents” could face extinction from deep-sea mining, reported Reuters.
- ETHANOL PUSHBACK: India’s new rules to promote 100% ethanol fuel and make ethanol-blended fuel mandatory at pumps “triggered a political row”, reported the Times of India. While the Indian government defended the push to automobile owners, a Hindu editorial and an Indian Express comment warned against incentivising fuels made from “water-intensive” sugarcane and rice.
- AMAZON ACTION: Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon fell to its lowest level in a decade, but president Lula’s plans to “end illegal deforestation by 2030” could be hampered if he is not re-elected, reported Al Jazeera. Meanwhile, Colombia’s outgoing environment minister warned of greater environmental and climate risk under the incoming government, said the Associated Press.
- WAR WORRIES: The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of the impact of the Iran war on Africa’s clean cooking efforts as disruption in the strait of Hormuz has stunted supplies and increased prices of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), explained Climate Home News.
Spotlight
UK ‘discards’ Congo rainforest funding
Amid worldwide cuts to aid spending, Carbon Brief explores how the UK is backtracking on funding for the Congo basin – the world’s second-largest rainforest.
The UK has abandoned projects worth tens of millions of pounds that were meant to help protect Congo rainforests and support local people.
Together, these initiatives would have made up half of the £200m that the UK pledged to support forest conservation in the Congo basin.
When it hosted COP26 in Glasgow, the UK led a new initiative to end forest loss, which included a collective pledge of “at least” $1.5bn (£1.1bn) for Congo rainforest nations by 2025.
Development minister Jenny Chapman revealed last week that, as of 2024, the UK had only provided £39.8m towards this goal.
COP pledge
At COP26, the UK – led by then prime minister Boris Johnson – launched the “Glasgow leaders’ declaration”, with a goal to “halt and reverse forest loss” by 2030.
The UK also made various regional funding pledges, including £200m for the Congo basin, £350m for tropical forests in Indonesia and “up to £300m” for the Amazon.
All of these rainforests face major forest loss. The Congo basin is the planet’s largest forested carbon sink, but its six host nations are among the poorest in the world and face significant funding barriers.
This has global ramifications. An official UK assessment warned that “degradation or collapse” of the Amazon or Congo rainforests “threaten UK national security and prosperity”.
Forest cuts
Following successive aid cuts introduced by both Conservative and Labour governments – tracking a global trend – the UK’s Congo funding is under threat.
The Congo basin forest action programme (CBFA) was explicitly set up to provide “roughly half” of the UK’s £200m Congo pledge.
Now, after reporting delays, the UK has slashed the CBFA as part of the Labour government’s aid cuts. Its £90m budget has been “quietly reduced by 79% to £18.8m”, according to the Times.
This is not the only Congo project that has been dropped due to aid cuts. The Congo part of the biodiverse landscapes fund – worth at least £12.3m – has closed five years early.
Official documents reveal more Congo forest funding is at risk, including the UK’s two largest remaining projects in the region. One initiative, intended to “incubate forest-friendly enterprises” in DRC, faces “reduc[ed] budgets”.
Documents also show the difficulties operating in the Congo, including “complex political economies” and, in Gabon, a military coup – which “complicated matters”.
‘Breaking promises’
Damian Fleming, a senior forests director at WWF International told Carbon Brief:
“Tropical forest countries are making long-term policy and development choices in expectation that international partners will honour their commitments.”
In a parliamentary response, Chapman said that the UK had spent £39.8m towards its £200m Congo target, as of 2024.
Despite being described as the UK’s contribution to the £1.1bn-by-2025 global goal agreed at COP26, the £200m target has a deadline of 2029. Therefore, while the collective goal has been met, the UK’s contribution was relatively small.
Zac Goldsmith, a former Conservative minister who oversaw the forest targets at COP26, told Carbon Brief that, in his view, the UK has “discarded” its regional pledges:
“We have gone from being perhaps the leader on protecting nature internationally to breaking promises to countries around the world.”
The Labour government says it has met its overarching “climate finance” goals and still intends to “prioritise” the Congo rainforest.
However, civil society groups and MPs are concerned about the lack of “ring-fenced” forest funding in the UK’s new aid strategy.
Watch, read, listen
TOXIC TROUBLES: DeSmog unpacked a new report that said Northern Ireland is being turned into a “toxic” pig and poultry farming “sacrifice zone” to satiate the UK’s meat appetite.
NEED TO NOAA: Laid-off scientists from the US’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) launched Climate.Us – an independent, public-backed version of the climate information website shut down by Trump last year.
DRY FRUIT: A Dialogue Earth long read looked at how climate change is impacting apricot harvests in the “stark, high-altitude desert” region of Ladakh, India.
READING ALOUD: A London Review of Books podcast discussed Robin Wall Kimmerer’s influential book “Braiding Sweetgrass”, weighing its compelling themes and where it veers into “scientific overreach”.
New science
- Climate change could cause Indigenous peoples in the Amazon to lose 28-34% of their plant species and 18-23% of their associated services | Nature
- Biodiversity in forests can act as a “buffer” against compound extreme weather events | Nature Communications
- Zero-deforestation commitments in Indonesia’s palm oil sector have had “no additional impacts” on reducing forest loss | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
In the diary
- 7-15 July: High-level political forum on sustainable development | New York City
- 13-31 July: Meeting of the International Seabed Authority assembly and council | Kingston, Jamaica
- 16 July: International Energy Agency critical minerals outlook 2026, online
- 27 July-1 August: Scientific and technical subsidiary body meeting of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity | Nairobi, Kenya
This edition of Cropped was written by Jess Milligan, Josh Gabbatiss and Aruna Chandrasekhar. Cropped is edited by Dr Giuliana Viglione. This edition was edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send tips and feedback to cropped@carbonbrief.org.
The post Cropped 15 July 2026: Uganda starves | Trump opens endangered habitats | UK cuts rainforest aid appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Cropped 15 July 2026: Uganda starves | Trump opens endangered habitats | UK cuts rainforest aid
Climate Change
Campaigners oppose Dangote’s planned Kenya refinery over climate and ecological risks
Climate and environment campaigners have urged the Kenyan government to halt plans for a proposed 700,000-barrel-per-day oil refinery backed by Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, warning the project threatens one of East Africa’s most ecologically sensitive coastlines.
The refinery, which is planned to be situated in Lamu County on Kenya’s northern coast, will be East Africa’s largest refining project and is expected to take up to three years to build. Once finished, it would supply refined petroleum products to Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda, among others, helping to reduce the region’s dependence on imported fuels.
Campaigners are questioning the viability of such a large refinery at a time when renewable energy and electric transportation are expanding rapidly.
Mohamed Adow, director of a Kenya-based climate and energy think-tank Power Shift Africa, said the decision to give Dangote the green light for the refinery is “an extraordinary act of environmental recklessness and economic short-sightedness”, arguing it would tie Kenya to “yesterday’s energy system” just as global demand for petroleum products faces increasing uncertainty.
-
Nigeria gives fossil gas a bigger role as “transition fuel” in climate plan
Officials say the country needs time and money to ramp up renewables, but critics say betting on gas is a risky strategy that could prolong the “oil curse” -
Gas flaring soars in Niger Delta post-Shell, afflicting communities
Since the multinational sold its assets in Nigeria’s oil hub, data analysis for Climate Home News shows flaring has risen, harming locals and the climate
Campaigners argue the refinery risks coming online just as transport – the largest market for petrol and diesel – is beginning to electrify across the continent.
Kenya launched a National Electric Mobility Policy earlier this year to speed up the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) and reduce the country’s roughly $5 billion annual fuel import bill. Ethiopia has already banned imports of non-electric vehicles and now has more than 100,000 EVs on its roads, while Rwanda is expanding its electric mobility programme with plans to convert its fleet of around 100,000 motorcycles to electric.
Adow said the project risks billions of dollars in investment in infrastructure that could become obsolete as the world moves away from oil.
“Building a refinery today assumes decades of robust demand for fuels that much of the world is actively trying to phase out,” he said in a statement.
Ecological concerns
Lamu – the proposed site for the project – is home to the UNESCO World Heritage-listed Lamu Old Town and an archipelago containing extensive mangrove forests, coral reefs and seagrass beds that support fisheries, tourism and coastal livelihoods.
Locating the refinery in Lamu would “place one of Africa’s largest fossil fuel developments in one of the continent’s most ecologically sensitive and culturally significant coastal regions,” Power Shift Africa said.
Major emitting countries knew of climate risks decades earlier than claimed
Sherelee Odayar, oil and gas campaigner at Greenpeace Africa, warned that a refinery of this scale could increase the risk of habitat destruction, marine pollution, oil spills and air pollution in one of East Africa’s most fragile coastal ecosystems.
She said the risks stem not only from the refinery itself – including storage tanks, pipelines and fuel handling facilities – but also from the large volumes of crude oil that would need to be shipped into Lamu and refined products exported by sea. Increased tanker traffic and fuel transfers, she said, would raise the likelihood of accidents in ecologically sensitive coastal waters.
Odayar added that Lamu’s low-lying, flood-prone coastline could compound those risks by damaging infrastructure and carrying contaminants from storage facilities into nearby fishing grounds and marine ecosystems.
“Lamu’s mangroves, coral reefs and seagrass beds are not expendable; they support fisheries, livelihoods and coastal protection,” Odayar added.
She said Kenyan authorities should suspend any approvals until an independent environmental and social impact assessment is completed, with genuine public participation and transparent scrutiny of the long-term economic, health and ecological risks.
“Any review must assess cumulative impacts on Lamu’s mangroves, coral reefs, seagrass beds and fishing livelihoods, alongside the wider economic risk of locking Kenya into costly fossil fuel infrastructure as the global energy transition accelerates”.
Dangote Group declined to answer questions from Climate Home News when contacted by phone.
Technological change threaten project’s future
The Kenya refinery would replicate Dangote’s 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Lagos, currently Africa’s largest, which has plans to more than double capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2028.
Adow of Power Shift Africa said projects like this represent “a breathtaking failure to recognise where the global economy is heading”, pointing out that the East African refinery risks arriving when Africa is experiencing an unprecedented clean energy boom.
Referencing Africa’s solar boom, global electric vehicles uptake and the International Energy Agency’s projection that global oil demand is set to enter a decline later this decade, the think-tank founder said African governments risk anchoring the continent’s future to an industry facing mounting economic uncertainty.
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The organisation said the project faces a bigger threat aside from environmental opposition and that is technological change. “The danger is not simply that the refinery will pollute, it is that it will become obsolete long before it has paid for itself,” he added.
Kenyan President William Ruto said the project will create about 60,000 jobs for Kenyans and supply refined fuel to eight East and Central African countries.
GreenPeace Africa’s Odayar said the promise of ‘thousands of jobs’ cannot be used to hide the true cost of the investment which is that large fossil fuel projects often create temporary jobs while undermining existing livelihoods in fishing, tourism and small-scale local economies.
“The enormous capital required for a project of this scale could instead help accelerate Kenya’s renewable energy future through solar, wind, geothermal, storage and better energy access,” she added.
The post Campaigners oppose Dangote’s planned Kenya refinery over climate and ecological risks appeared first on Climate Home News.
Campaigners oppose Dangote’s planned Kenya refinery over climate and ecological risks
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