Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels and cement will rise around 1.1% in 2025, reaching a record 38.1bn tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2), according to the latest figures from the Global Carbon Project.
However, falling land-use emissions means that global CO2 emissions in 2025 will remain relatively unchanged compared to 2024 levels.
The 20th edition of the annual Global Carbon Budget report, published today, also finds that the land carbon sink – the portion of human-caused CO2 emissions absorbed by plants and soils – appears to have recovered to its pre-El Niño strength after two unusually weak years.
However, research published alongside the report by the same team also suggests that climate change has caused a long-term decline in land and ocean carbon sinks, with sinks being about 15% weaker over the past decade than they would have been without climate impacts.
The study, published in Nature, finds that the decline of carbon sinks has contributed about 8% to the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration since 1960.
The 2025 Global Carbon Budget report also estimates that:
- Emissions in China and India are projected to grow much less in 2025 compared to the past decade, while emissions in the US and EU are projected to grow this year after years of decline.
- Global CO2 emissions from land-use change are expected to decrease by nearly 10% in 2025, driven by reductions in deforestation and forest degradation in South America.
- Total CO2 emissions – fossil and land use – have grown more slowly over the past decade (0.3% per year on average) compared to the previous decade (1.9% per year).
- The remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5C is virtually exhausted and is equivalent to only four years of current emissions. Carbon budgets to limit warming to 1.7C and 2C would similarly be used up in 12 and 25 years, respectively.
- The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is set to reach 425.7 parts per million (ppm) in 2025, 2.3ppm above 2023 and 52% above pre-industrial levels.
(For detailed coverage of previous editions of the report, see Carbon Brief’s coverage for 2024, 2023 and 2022.)
Global emissions remain flat
The Global Carbon Budget (GCB) finds that total global CO2 emissions in 2025 – including those from fossil fuels and land use – are projected to remain approximately flat at 42.2GtCO2, falling by a negligible -0.04% compared to last year.
This means 2025 is effectively tied with 2024 as the highest global CO2 emissions on record.
Flat total CO2 emissions in 2025 reflect a combination of continued rising emissions from fossil fuel and industry and declining emissions from land-use change. Fossil CO2 emissions rose 1.1% to 38.1GtCO2, while land-use emissions declined by -9.8% to 4.1GtCO2 (albeit with large uncertainties).
The figure below shows the 2025 global CO2 emissions update (red solid line) alongside 2024 (dark blue dotted), 2023 (mid blue dotted) 2022 (light blue dotted), 2021 (light grey dotted) and 2020 (dark grey dotted). The shaded area indicates the uncertainty around the new 2025 budget.
(Each year, the GCB is updated to include the latest data as well as improvements to modelling sources and sinks, resulting in some year-to-year revisions to the historical record.)
The 2025 figures are notably higher than those in the prior five GCB reports, reflecting an upward revision in historical land-use emissions. (This is discussed in more detail in the land-use emissions section below.)
Total global CO2 emissions have notably flattened in the past decade (2014-25), growing at only 0.3% per year compared to the 1.9% rate of growth during the prior decade (2004-13) and the longer-term average growth rate of 1.6% over 1959-2014.
This apparent flattening is due to declining land-use emissions compensating for continued – but slow – increases in fossil CO2 emissions. Fossil emissions grew around 0.2GtCO2 per year over the past decade, while land-use emissions decreased by a comparable amount.
However, despite the emissions plateau, there is still no sign of the rapid and deep decrease in CO2 emissions needed to reach net-zero and stabilise global temperatures in-line with the Paris Agreement temperature goal.
If global emissions remain at current levels, the remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5C (with a 50% chance) will be rapidly exhausted.
(The carbon budget is the total amount of CO2 that scientists estimate can be emitted if warming is to be kept below a particular temperature threshold. Earlier this year, the Indicators of Global Climate Change report estimated the remaining carbon budget had declined by three-quarters between the start of 2020 and the start of 2025.)
With human-caused global warming sitting at around 1.36C above pre-industrial levels in 2024, the remaining budget for 1.5C is 170GtCO2, equivalent to four years of current emissions.
The GCB report finds that the remaining carbon budgets to limit warming to 1.7C and 2C have been reduced to 525GtCO2 (12 years at current emissions levels) and 1,055GtCO2 (25 years), respectively.
Global fossil CO2 emissions also grew more slowly in the past decade (0.8% per year) compared to the previous decade (2.1%). This was driven by the continued decarbonisation of energy systems – including a shift from burning coal to gas and replacing fossil fuels with renewables – as well as slightly weaker global economic growth during the past decade.
The figure below breaks down global emissions (dark blue line) in the 2025 budget into fossil (mid blue) and land-use (light blue) components. Fossil CO2 emissions represent the bulk of total global emissions in recent years, accounting for approximately 90% of emissions in 2025 (compared to 10% for land use). This represents a large change from the first half of the 20th century, when land-use emissions were approximately the same as fossil emissions.
Global fossil emissions include CO2 emitted from burning coal, oil and gas, as well as the production of cement. However, to determine total fossil emissions, the Global Carbon Budget also subtracts the cement carbonation sink – CO2 slowly absorbed by cement once it is exposed to the air – from fossil emissions.
Global emissions can also be expressed on a per-capita basis, as shown in the figure below.
While it is ultimately total global emissions that matter for the Earth’s climate – and a global per-capita figure glosses over a lot of variation among, and within, countries – it is noteworthy that global per-capita fossil emissions peaked in 2012 and have been slightly declining in the years since.
Land-use emissions continue downward trend
Global land-use emissions stem from deforestation, forest degradation, loss of peatlands and harvesting trees for wood. They averaged around 5.0GtCO2 over the past decade (2015-24) and the Global Carbon Budget provides an initial projection for 2025 of 4.1GtCO2.
This represents a 0.5GtCO2 decrease in land-use emissions relative to 2024. The GCB report suggests that this was largely driven by a combination of reductions in deforestation and forest degradation in South America and by the end of the dry 2023-24 El Niño conditions.
Overall, land-use emissions have decreased by around 32% compared to their average in the 2000s, with a particularly large drop in the past decade. This decline is statistically significant and is due both to decreasing deforestation and increasing levels of reforestation and afforestation globally.
Three countries – Brazil, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) – collectively contribute approximately 57% of the global land-use emissions. In the past, China has been a meaningful contributor to land-use emissions, but in recent years its land-use emissions have turned net-negative as more trees have been planted than cut down.
The figure below shows changes in emissions over time in these countries, as well as land-use emissions in the rest of the world (grey).
Historical land-use emissions have been revised upward in the 2025 GCB report compared to prior estimates. This reflects a combination of two factors:
- The discontinuation of one of the four bookkeeping models that GCB has historically relied on for land-use emissions estimates. This model tended to show lower land-use emissions than the others.
- The inclusion of the impacts from CO2 fertilisation on global biomass densities. Because forests have higher biomass densities now than in the past, due to increasing CO2, this tends to increase the estimate of land-use emissions for recent years.
Fossil-fuel CO2 hits record highs
Global emissions of fossil CO2 – including coal, oil, gas and cement – increased by around 1.1% in 2025, relative to 2024, with an uncertainty range of 0.2-2.2%. This represents a new record high and surpasses the prior record set in 2024.
The figure below shows global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, divided into emissions from major emitting countries including China (dark blue shading), the US (mid blue), the EU (light blue), India (light blue) and the remainder of the world (grey).
China represents 32% of global CO2 emissions today. Its 2025 emissions are projected to increase by a relatively small 0.4% (with an uncertainty range of -0.9% to 2%), driven by a small rise in emissions from coal (0.3%), a modest rise in gas (1.3%) and a larger rise in oil (2.1%).
Given the uncertainty range, a decrease in Chinese emissions is also a possibility, but this will not be confirmed until the full 2025 data is available.
Similarly, recent analysis for Carbon Brief found that China’s emissions were “finely balanced between a small fall or rise” in 2025. However, it said that a drop in the full-year total became more likely after a 3% decline in September. (The Global Carbon Project estimates are based on data covering January through to August, which point towards a small rise in 2025.)
Whether China’s emissions see small rise or fall in 2025, the outcome will be due to moderate growth in energy consumption combined with an extraordinary growth in renewable power generation. This would represent the second year in a row where Chinese emissions growth was well below the average rate over the past decade.
The US represents 13% of global emissions and emissions in 2025 are projected to increase by 1.9% (-0.2 to +4.1%) compared with 2024. This marks a reversal from recent trends in declining CO2 emissions.
The projected growth of emissions in the US is likely driven by a combination of three factors: a colder start to the year after a mild 2024, which led to greater heating requirements, higher gas prices, which led to more coal being used in power generation, as well as an increase in total demand for electricity.
US emissions from coal are expected to increase by a substantial 7.5% in 2025, emissions from both oil and gas by a more modest 1.1% and emissions from cement to fall by -8.0%.
While policies enacted by the current US administration may increase CO2 emissions going forward, their impact on national emissions levels in 2025 were likely relatively modest compared to other factors.
India represents 8% of global emissions. In 2025, its emissions are projected to increase by 1.4% (-0.3% to +3.1%) on 2024 levels, significantly below recent trends.
An early monsoon with the highest-ever May rainfall substantially reduced cooling requirements in May and June, the hottest months of the year. Strong growth or renewables – particularly solar – has also helped limit the growth of Indian emissions.
Indian emissions from coal are expected to grow 1.7%, with oil growing 0.1%, gas shrinking by -6.4% and cement growing by 9.9%.
The EU represents 6% of global emissions. Its emissions are projected to increase by 0.4% in 2025, with an uncertainty range of -2.1 to +2.8%. This represents a divergence from a past decline in emissions (albeit with large uncertainties).
EU emissions from coal are expected to decline by -0.3%, whereas emissions from oil and gas are projected to increase by 0.6% and 0.9%, respectively. Cement emissions are expected to fall by -4.1%.
The increase in EU emissions is in part from weather-related low hydropower and wind generation which – despite increases in solar – have led to an increase in electricity generation from gas. In addition, a relatively cold February led to increased use of natural gas for space heating.
International aviation and shipping (included in the “rest of world” in the chart above) are responsible for 3% of global emissions. They are projected to increase by 6.8% for aviation, but remain flat for international shipping. This year will be the first time that aviation emissions have exceeded pre-Covid levels.
The rest of the world (excluding aviation) represents 38% of global emissions. Emissions are expected to grow by 1.1% in 2025 (ranging from -1.1% to +3.3%), with increases in emissions from coal (1%), oil (0.5%), gas (1.8%) and cement (2.4%).
The total emissions for each year over 2022-25, as well as the countries and regions that were responsible for the changes in absolute emissions, are shown in the figure below.
Annual emissions for 2022, 2023, 2024 and estimates for 2025 are shown by the black bars. The smaller bars show the change in emissions between each set of years, broken down by country or region – the US (dark blue), EU (mid blue), China (light blue), India (pale blue) and the rest of the world (grey). Negative values show reductions in emissions, while positive values reflect emission increases.
The US represented a large part of the rise in global fossil-fuel emissions in 2025. US emissions increases over 2024-25 contributed about 40% of the total global increase – more than the EU, China and India contributions combined.
The Global Carbon Project notes that emissions have declined over the past decade (2015-24) in 35 nations, which collectively account for 27% of global emissions. This is up from 18 countries during the prior decade (2005-14).
The decrease in emissions in those countries comes despite continued domestic economic growth and represents a long-term “decoupling” of CO2 emissions and the economy.
The carbon intensity of energy has consistently decreased over the past decade in China, the US, the EU – and, to a lesser extent, globally.
However, peaking CO2 emissions requires that the rate of decarbonisation exceeds the growth in energy demand. This has happened in some regions, including the US and EU, but not yet globally.
Modest growth in emissions from coal, oil, gas and cement
Global fossil-fuel emissions primarily result from the combustion of coal, oil and gas.
In 2025, coal is responsible for more emissions than any other fossil fuel, representing approximately 42% of global fossil-fuel CO2 emissions. Oil is the second largest contributor at 33% of fossil CO2, while gas comes in at 21%.
The production of cement is responsible for around 3.8% of global emissions, but this is reduced to 1.9% once the carbonation sink – the drawdown of atmospheric CO2 by concrete – is taken into account.
These percentages reflect both the amount of each fossil fuel consumed globally, but also differences in CO2 intensities. Coal results in the most CO2 emitted per unit of heat or energy produced, followed by oil and gas.
The figure below shows global CO2 emissions from different fuels over time, covering coal (dark blue), oil (mid blue) and gas (light blue), as well as cement production (pale blue) and other sources (grey).
While coal emissions increased rapidly in the mid-2000s, they have largely flattened since 2013. However, coal use increased significantly in 2021 and then more modestly in the subsequent four years.
Global emissions from coal increased by 0.8% in 2025 compared to 2024, while oil emissions increased 1.0% and gas emissions increased by 1.3%.
Despite setting a new record this year, global coal use is only 6% above 2013 levels – a full 13 years ago. By contrast, during the 2000s, global coal use grew at a rate of around 4% every single year.
The figure below shows the total emissions for each year over 2022-25 (black bars), as well as the absolute change in emissions for each fuel between years.
Global oil emissions were suppressed for a few years after the 2020, but rebounded to pre-pandemic levels as of 2024 and have continued to grow in 2025.
This reflects that, despite falling sales of internal combustion engine vehicles, not enough electric vehicles (EVs) have yet been sold to result in peak oil demand.
The global carbon budget
Every year, the Global Carbon Project provides an estimate of the overall “global carbon budget”. This is based on estimates of the release of CO2 through human activity and its uptake by the oceans and land, with the remainder adding to atmospheric concentrations of the gas.
(This differs from the commonly used term “remaining carbon budget”, which refers to the amount of CO2 that can be released while keeping warming below global limits of 1.5 or 2C.)
The most recent budget, including estimated values for 2025, is shown in the figure below.
Values above zero represent sources of CO2 – from fossil fuels and industry (dark blue shading) and land use (mid blue) – while values below zero represent carbon sinks that remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Any CO2 emissions that are not absorbed by the oceans (light grey) or land vegetation (mid grey) accumulate in the atmosphere (dark grey). In addition, a dashed black line is shown to represent the expected sum of sinks based on estimated emissions.
Over the past decade (2015-24), the world’s oceans have taken up approximately 29% of total human-caused emissions, or around 11.8GtCO2 per year.
The ocean CO2 sink has been relatively flat since 2014 after growing rapidly over the prior decades, reflecting the flattening of global emissions during that period.
This estimate for carbon sinks has been revised up from 26% in prior versions of the GCB, reflecting a major update to carbon budgets driven by new data and modelling of carbon sink behavior.
The land sink takes up around 21% of global emissions, or 8.7GtCO2 per year on average over the past decade – discussed in more detail in the section below. This is down from 29% in prior budgets.
The atmosphere continues to accumulate the bulk of human-caused CO2 emissions, with about 49% going into the atmosphere on average over the past decade – a rate of 20.4GtCO2 per year.
The growth rate of atmospheric CO2 in 2025 is expected to be around 2.3ppm, which is a bit below the decadal average rate of 2.6ppm over the past decade (2015-24). This is well below the record-setting rise of 3.7ppm in 2024, which was primarily driven by the effect of the 2023-24 El Niño conditions weakening the land sink.
Atmospheric CO2 concentrations are set to reach an annual average of 425.7ppm in 2025, representing an increase of 52% above pre-industrial levels of 280ppm.
There remains an unusual imbalance in the carbon budget in 2024, where the sum of the sinks is notably larger than estimated emissions. This can be seen in the figure above, where the dashed line is below the shaded area.
Budget imbalances are not unprecedented – there are large uncertainties in both emissions data and sink estimates. But the rise in the amount of CO2 accumulating in the atmosphere in 2024 is larger than would be expected based on emissions.
There are a number of potential explanations for this 2024 imbalance. The land cover data for 2024 is not yet complete and it is possible that some fire emissions data might be missing from the record. This might result in either higher land-use emissions or lower land sinks than currently estimated.
Alternatively, it could be due to the CO2 growth rate – captured by surface stations managed by the US National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) – being slightly high. CO2 records for 2024 from these stations are higher than those obtained from satellite-based sensors, though it remains unclear which provides the most accurate measurement.
A declining, but not collapsing, land sink
After an usually weak land carbon sink in 2023, there were a number of media articles about its potential collapse.
For example, in October 2024, the Guardian wrote that “the sudden collapse of carbon sinks was not factored into climate models – and could rapidly accelerate global heating”.
The truth is a bit more complicated. While the impending collapse of the land carbon sink has been greatly exaggerated, there is growing evidence of a long-term weakening of both the land and ocean carbon sinks due to human activity.
And while the land sink has recovered to its pre-El Niño strength in 2025, aided by relatively low global fire CO2 emissions, it will continue to gradually weaken as global temperatures rise. This is not unexpected – scientists have long foreseen a weaker carbon sink in a warmer world.
A weaker land sink will contribute to higher global temperatures in the future as more CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels and land use change will accumulate in the atmosphere.
The figure below shows the percentage of human emissions absorbed by the land sink in every year since 1959, with a recovery upwards in 2025 after two relatively low years.
In a study published in Nature alongside the release of the 2025 Global Carbon Budget, the same team of researchers provide a detailed estimate of exactly how the land and ocean sinks have changed as a result of human activity.
The research finds that the land and ocean sinks are 25% smaller and 7% smaller, respectively, than they would have been without the effects of climate change over 2015-24.
This amounts to a nearly 20% reduction in the efficacy of current global carbon sinks – that is, both the land and ocean – and a 15% reduction compared to how large they would be without the effects of climate change.
The figure below, from the new paper, shows the impact of climate change on the ocean sink (blue), the land sink (green) and atmospheric CO2 concentrations (grey) since 1960.
The weakening of carbon sinks due to human activity has led to an increase of atmospheric CO2 of more than 8ppm since 1960. The combined effects of climate change and deforestation have turned tropical forests in south-east Asia and in large parts of South America from CO2 sinks to sources.
And these sinks will likely continue to weaken as long as atmospheric CO2 concentrations continue to rise and the world continues to warm. There are a wide range of estimates of carbon cycle feedbacks among climate models, but a large carbon cycle feedback could result in a few tenths of a degree of future warming.
The post Analysis: Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions to set new record in 2025, as land sink ‘recovers’ appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Analysis: Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions to set new record in 2025, as land sink ‘recovers’
After a four-year set up period, a fund to help vulnerable countries respond to climate impacts is facing criticism from Nigeria’s environment minister over delays in delivering aid, while its chief executive says the first disbursements will be made by the end of the year.
At an event at London Climate Action Week on Tuesday, Nigerian environment minister Balarabe Abbas Lawal said that whenever he goes to UN climate summits “we talk about loss and damage funds, and all these years nothing has been translated into action”.
He added that the fund currently “looks like a mirage”, and said that “a number of our governments are beginning to believe that COPs are just talk shops”.
The idea of addressing the loss and damage caused by climate change was first discussed at COP13 in 2007. A fund was agreed to at COP27 in 2022 to help vulnerable countries respond to climate emergencies, and it was officially set up the next year. Since then, the fund’s board and management have been working out the details of how it will work.
Ibrahima Cheikh Diong, a banker from Senegal, was appointed CEO in 2024. Referring to Lawal’s frustration, Diong told Climate Home News on Thursday that the fund is “moving according to plan”.
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A call for funding requests, launched at COP30, closed on June 15. Projects – including those to strengthen responses to floods in Bangladesh and Lagos and improve water infrastructure in Jamaica – bid for a combined $250 million. Diong said that the fund’s board would decide which projects to fund at its next board meeting in the Philippines, starting on July 8.
“We hope that by the end of the year we can begin then to make the decision and see the funds going, so hopefully the frustration for Nigeria will be reduced”, he said, adding that “every time wasted, when it comes to loss and damage, is lives not saved”.
Funding concerns
While climate campaigners have called for tens of billion of dollars of funding a year, wealthy nations have promised the fund $822 million and delivered just $449 million – with countries like Italy, France and Luxembourg failing to pay in full.
A briefing paper prepared by the fund’s secretariat earlier this year warned that, unless fresh contributions are secured, the fund could run out of resources by the end of 2027.
Diong said that the fund intends to hold a replenishment round, where governments promise money, next year. In the meantime, as public finance “is being very difficult to mobilise”, the fund is looking at other sources of funding.
“What exactly that source of funding will be, we have to look at the potential, look at the feasibility and so on”, he said, so the fund can keep up with demand.
In an open letter in April, a group of climate campaigners called for developed countries to increase contributions to the Loss and Damage fund and introduce taxes on fossil fuel companies, financial transactions, luxury air travel and wealth to help finance it.
“Rich countries must be held strictly accountable for the devastation they have caused,” said Climate Action Network International head Tasneem Essop. “Their failure to fulfill their responsibility to the loss and damage fund is not just an oversight; it is a shameful betrayal of humanity.”
The post As Nigeria rails at loss and damage “mirage”, fund boss assures money is coming appeared first on Climate Home News.
As Nigeria rails at loss and damage “mirage”, fund boss assures money is coming
Climate Change
China Briefing 25 June 2026: Five-year plans passed | Critical-mineral tensions | Industrial decarbonisation plan
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.
China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
New five-year plans
GENERATION TARGET: China today released its 15th five-year plan for building a “new-type energy system”, according to finance news outlet Cailianshe. It said the plan covered topics including energy sources, power-market reform and China’s role in clean-energy supply chains and climate governance. The plan, published by the National Development and Reform Commission, stated that China will aim for clean energy to constitute 30% of power generation by 2030 – up from approximately 22% today. It also stated that wind and solar will become the “mainstay” of China’s power mix. The government will work to increase clean-energy consumption, such as by upgrading the grid to “accommodate” 900 gigawatts of distributed energy and promoting emerging solutions such as virtual power plants and hydrogen. The plan also urged the “strengthening” of coal’s role as a “bottom-line guarantee”.
IN THE WORKS: At a meeting on 11 June, China’s State Council approved the “15th five-year plan for building a beautiful China”, reported industry news outlet BJX News. The meeting readout noted the importance of “actively address[ing] climate change” and developing “green production and lifestyles”, it added. The next day, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) approved a series of environment-related five-year plans, including the “15th five-year plan for a national response to climate change”, said business news outlet 21st Century Business Herald article. The full text of the plans is not yet available.
JOBS AND GOVERNANCE: A separate five-year plan on employment included calls to “unlock employment potential” by developing “new energy system” projects, according to current affairs outlet China News. The government also published a white paper on global governance that said the “general public truly feels that nations are taking action and that unity can overcome any obstacle” to address climate change, reported state news agency Xinhua. It added that the paper called on developed countries to “honor their commitments” on climate finance. Foreign minister Wang Yi said in a press conference that China aims to “innovate governance mechanisms” to address issues such as how countries can “achieve” a global low-carbon transition, Xinhua also reported.
Critical mineral barbs
REDUCE DEPENDENCIES: The Group of Seven (G7) major economies have stated that “no single country should supply more than 60% of their imports of rare earths”, reported Bloomberg, in “an effort to reduce their reliance on China”. The full communique, which does not mention China by name, said that diversifying supply chains was “urgen[t]”, due to “market concentration”, the “growing use of arbitrary trade restrictions” and the need to “reduce vulnerabilities”. In response, China’s foreign ministry urged the G7 to “stop disrupting the international trade order” with “self-made rules”.
EXPORTS BLOCKED: The Indonesian government’s new nickel production quotas and pricing rules could put $50bn of Chinese investment at risk, Chinese diplomats argued in a letter covered by the Financial Times. Lithium miners in Zimbabwe, including Chinese firms, are asking for more time to build local processing facilities ahead of a 2027 lithium concentrate export ban, said Reuters. Meanwhile, China restricted trade with two US rare-earth companies, in response to the US adding companies including CATL and BYD to a “blacklist”, said the Financial Times. China’s exports to Japan of rare earths used to make permanent magnets remain “negligible”, reported Reuters.
DIALOGUE URGED: EU member states have asked the European Commission to develop new trade instruments to deal with the “economic threat” posed by China, reported the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post. Despite “combative rhetoric” ahead of the summit, the Financial Times reported that the 27 leaders opted for dialogue rather than immediate action to address “global macroeconomic imbalances”. Separately, the European Commission plans to impose tariffs on Chinese plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, reported German business newspaper Handelsblatt.
CLIMATE MINISTERIAL: The EU, China and Canada held a climate ministerial, in which Chinese environment minister Huang Runqiu said countries “must strengthen cooperation rather than retreat from it”, said Euronews. Climate outlet Tanpaifang reported that Huang also said COP31 should address “insufficient emission reduction efforts and financial support from developed countries”. According to a European Commission transcript, EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said: “We need to act for climate, but also for competitiveness and independence. We cannot afford to depend on third countries.”
Mandatory targets for energy users
NEW TARGETS: From August, the Chinese government will “set binding targets” for companies on how much low-carbon power and non-electric energy they must consume, said Bloomberg. It added that targets will be set for how much low-carbon power provinces must absorb into their grids. Provinces and “key energy-consuming industries” will see their uptake of clean energy monitored on a quarterly basis and be subject to annual assessments by the State Council, said industry news outlet International Energy Net.
END-USER PRESSURE: The announcement marks the first time that China has established targets for non-fossil energy consumption at the “end-user level”, reported economic news outlet Jiemian. It added that the previous system, which only covered power, placed the responsibility for absorbing renewable energy into the grid “primarily” onto local governments and power grid companies.
SUPPORTING THE MARKET: The new measures will “help address grid integration challenges and promote better utilisation of renewable energy”, an official at the National Energy Administration told reporters, according to Xinhua. The official said it would also help boost demand for other low-carbon industries, such as “green hydrogen, ammonia and methanol”. Liu Guobin, vice-president of the China Electric Power Planning and Engineering Institute said in an “explanation” posted on International Energy Net that the measures would also “convey clear…expectations to the market” for the long-term outlook for renewable energy, “guiding the rational allocation of investment”.
More China news
- BECALMED: China’s thermal power generation rose 2.1% year-on-year in May, as “lower wind speeds curbed renewable energy growth”, reported Reuters.
- TRUCK TARGET: The government issued a new plan for developing “new-energy heavy duty trucks (HDTs)” that aims to have sales of electric, hydrogen and other low-carbon HDTs account for 40% of new truck sales by 2030, said Xinhua.
- SUPERMASSIVE SYSTEM: China’s total power capacity reached 4,000 gigawatts in May, reported BJX News, larger than that of the US, EU, India, Russia and Japan combined. Coal’s share of the capacity mix fell to 32%, while the non-fossil share rose to 62%.
- EXPORT DRIVER: China’s exports of electric vehicles (EVs) rose 54% year-on-year in May to $10bn by value and lithium-battery exports “rose 37% to $8bn”, but solar cell exports fell 7% by value to $2bn, said Caixin. The thinktank Ember found that Chinese EV exports to south-east Asia, particularly Thailand and the Philippines, reached an “all-time high” of $1.2bn.
- ONGOING RISK: The heavy rainfall seen throughout June, as well as drought, is likely to continue during China’s flood season, said the Ministry of Emergency Management in comments covered by Jiemian.
- PROJECTION PUSHBACK: The China Energy Research Society’s Wang Weiquan described projections by BloombergNEF of China’s emissions reduction and share of coal in the power mix as “overly optimistic” and “even radical”, according to the state-run newspaper China Daily.
Spotlight
What is in China’s new three-year action plan for industry?
China has issued a new action plan for energy conservation and reducing carbon emissions across nine heavy industries.
In this issue, Carbon Brief examines how the plan will impact China’s industrial development and decarbonisation.
China will conduct an “intensive campaign for energy conservation and carbon reduction upgrades” across heavy industry between 2026 and 2028.
The plan targets nine key industries: steel; electrolytic aluminum; cement; flat glass; oil refining; ethylene; synthetic ammonia; methanol; and coal-fired power.
After 2028, it said that production capacity that does not meet efficiency standards will be phased out and that efforts will be broadened to other industries.
Combined, power and industry make up the vast majority of China’s emissions profile.
Emissions in some of these sectors – notably, steel and cement – have been falling. However, chemical-industry emissions have experienced double-digit growth.
China’s power sector, which generates the majority of its electricity through coal, is responsible for around 40% of the country’s total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.
Focused on efficiency
The plan outlined several measures for companies to take to reduce their energy use and emissions profile.
According to a Carbon Brief count, the majority are focused on energy efficiency, such as promoting high-efficiency industrial processes and upgrading energy-consuming equipment.
More than 70% of China’s steel, aluminium, cement and flat glass capacity does not meet energy efficiency benchmarks, said a government official in a Q&A published by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).
Yang Zhou, senior advisor China at Agora Energiewende, told Carbon Brief that the policy will “pick the last lowest hanging fruit” in terms of eliminating low-efficiency capacity. After this, she said, the focus will turn to entering a “deep-water” phase of decarbonising industrial capacity, as well as making it more efficient.
Some of the measures that companies are encouraged to take in the plan do directly link to decarbonisation. These include developing “hydrogen metallurgy” and sourcing low-carbon materials and fuels, as well as increasing electrification and renewable power usage.
The coal-power industry should improve flexibility, decouple combined heat and power operations and integrate biomass and renewable energy into their operations, it said.
Coal plants are expected to reduce coal consumption per kilowatt-hour (kWh) of electricity by “at least five grams of standard coal” and carbon emissions per kWh by 10%-20%, if not more.
The document said that the share of coal-fired power capacity that meets energy efficiency benchmarks should improve by 15 percentage points by 2028. This rises to 20 percentage points for the other eight industries.
By 2028, according to the NDRC, the plan aims to cut energy use by more than 100m tonnes of standard coal per year and reduce CO2 emissions by more than 200m tonnes.
Supporting business
Companies will receive support from the central government, which will subsidise 20% of the total investment that “approved” projects require.
Provinces should “fully leverage” pricing mechanisms to encourage retrofitting, said the policy.
Local policymakers can now add a surcharge of up to 0.1 yuan ($0.15) per kWh to market-traded electricity prices for non-compliant producers – which finance outlet Caixin said was a “central” tool for enforcement.
The South China Morning Post quoted an unnamed analyst, however, saying the policy may not “deliver its intended effects”, as some industries still receive subsidised electricity from local governments.
Companies will also be able to use verified CO2 emission reductions from approved projects to “offset” emissions from “new, renovated or expanded” dual-high projects. For industries covered by China’s carbon market, this may be formalised in their emissions allowances.
The NDRC official said that support should be provided to “ensure they receive reasonable returns on their carbon emission allowances”.
The policy “seeks to strike a balance” between energy security and climate goals, rejecting the “radical thinking of ‘one-size-fits-all shutdowns and phase-outs’”, according to a widely-read commentary by Sprinting Power Worker, a “self-media” WeChat account.
“For industries such as coal power, steel and cement, a gradual capacity reduction is expected due to market forces,” said Yang. She added:
“For growing sectors like chemicals and non-ferrous metals, China’s strategy is to expand capacity, [albeit] increasingly concentrated, scaled-up and efficient. Continued decarbonisation will require large-scale deployment of solutions like electrification, green power-green hydrogen coupling and circular economy.”
Watch, read, listen
SULPHURIC SLOWDOWN: Rhodium Group published an analysis of how China’s efforts to restrict exports of sulphuric acid could impact global electrification efforts.
ARCTIC ACTIVITY: The Circumpolar podcast explored the variety of interests, including energy and the environment, driving China’s actions in the Arctic.
TRANSITION IN NUMBERS: Thinktank Agora Energiewende hosted a webinar on its new report, which outlined key trends in China’s energy transition.
CARBON TAX: The Center for Strategic and International Studies looked into how China is responding to the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism.
4.9%
The amount by which China’s oil consumption is expected to fall in 2026 compared to the year before, according to a report by a thinktank under oil giant PetroChina, covered by Reuters. It said the decline is due to the “pivot to new energy and high oil prices due to the Iran war”, according to the report.
New science
- Economically developed Chinese cities “transferred” 42% of their greenhouse gas emissions related to plug-in electric vehicles to less developed cities in 2020, “substantially increasing” the recipients’ climate mitigation costs | Nature Cities
- Renewable energy development “significantly reduces” urban-rural income inequality in Chinese cities | World Development
- Grain trading between Chinese provinces increased more than fivefold between 1980 and 2020 and production shifted northward, driving a more than 217% increase in “embodied nitrogen losses and greenhouse gas emissions” | Nature Food
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China Briefing is written by Anika Patel, with contributions from Lekai Liu. It is edited by Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org
The post China Briefing 25 June 2026: Five-year plans passed | Critical-mineral tensions | Industrial decarbonisation plan appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Twice as many animals died due to heat stress en route to slaughterhouses during the UK’s record-hot summer in 2025 compared to 2024, according to new Carbon Brief analysis.
Government figures showed that nearly 6,600 animals – mostly chickens – died in transport as a result of the sweltering summer heat in England and Wales from June to August 2025.
This compared to 3,100 in summer 2024 and no official cases in summer 2023.
These figures were still below the more than 18,500 deaths recorded in the summer of 2022 when UK temperatures hit 40C for the first time, as previously reported by Carbon Brief.
The deaths are a “horrifying reminder of what happens when animals are treated as cargo”, said an animal-rights group spokesperson.
Detailed descriptions included in the data on the deaths highlighted thousands of animals dying amid heat stress, high humidity levels and long journeys.
Thousands of animals also died due to cold, wintry conditions, with more than 13,000 deaths recorded between December 2024 and February 2025 – almost double the previous winter.
Heat deaths
Carbon Brief has analysed recent years of “dead on arrival” data focused on livestock that died due to heat or cold stress en route to slaughterhouses.
The data was obtained through the UK Freedom of Information (FOI) Act from the Food Standards Agency (FSA), which is responsible for the compliance of slaughterhouses in England and Wales.
At least 1m chickens die in the UK each year while being transported to slaughterhouses due to suffocation, poor transport procedures and other issues, reported the Bureau of Investigative Journalism in 2018 .
Pigs, cows, sheep and other animals also die in this way in smaller numbers.
The new data showed that 6,595 animals died due to heat stress en route to abattoirs between June and August 2025, which was the warmest summer on record in the UK.
According to the Met Office, human-caused climate change made this summer heat 70 times more likely to occur.
Carbon Brief requested non-publicly accessible details of “dead on arrival cases” that were categorised as “suspected heat/cold stress”.
Each incident contained a detailed description written by a vet with supporting evidence about the condition of the animals, the transport conditions and the suspected cause of death. These are filed to the FSA.
The information showed that certain individual days had particularly high death tolls. Almost 1,000 chickens died in a number of incidents during a heatwave on 11 July 2025. Some chickens showed visible signs of heat stress, such as panting and immobility, the reports said.
On 12 August, amid more high temperatures, 2,154 chickens died in heat-stress incidents.
Body temperatures of some of the chickens that died on this day were as high as 46C.
A chicken will die if its body temperature exceeds 45C and it should ideally stay as close to 41C as possible, according to a 2005 document from the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (Defra).
The table below shows the total number of heat- and cold-related deaths of livestock in recent years, based on the data obtained through FOI.
The “dead on arrival” information covered every summer and winter since 2023, alongside the summer of 2022.
The figures were likely an underestimate of the total number of livestock deaths due to high or low temperatures, as they only included deaths with “suspected cold/heat stress” as a listed category.
However, the incident descriptions in many other deaths mentioned high and low temperatures as contributing factors, despite the ultimate cause of death not being labelled as such. These were not included in Carbon Brief’s tally.
The figures covered deaths in England and Wales. Scotland and Northern Ireland do not record the cause of deaths en route to slaughterhouses, so it is not possible to single out the cases linked to high or low temperatures.
Preventing deaths
These livestock deaths are a “horrifying reminder of what happens when animals are treated as cargo”, says Alex Harman, campaigns manager at animal rights group Animal Aid. He tells Carbon Brief:
“These 6,600 individuals [in summer 2025] did not just die, they suffered prolonged, agonising heat exhaustion inside metal containers – anyone experiencing the UK’s heatwave this week will be able to empathise.”
Climate change is “simply amplifying the violence already built into animal farming”, he says, adding that the only “compassionate, logical” solution is to “stop viewing animals as products and urgently transition to a plant-based food system”.
Pigs and chickens cannot sweat and face difficulties cooling down on very hot days.
Cramped or long journeys can exacerbate this, combined with high humidity levels, sometimes upwards of 80%, the livestock data showed.
Abigail Penny, the executive director of Animal Equality UK, tells Carbon Brief that “these same scenes of extreme animal suffering play out every summer and, if nothing is done, it’s only going to get worse”.
Workers transporting animals during extreme weather conditions are expected to put in place measures to protect them, according to UK government guidance.
These measures can include ensuring water and ventilation systems function properly on vehicles, avoiding travel during the hottest or coldest parts of the day and recognising signs of heat and cold stress in animals.
The FSA said that the number of “dead on arrival” incidents caused by cold and heat stress increased by more than 50% between April 2024 and March 2025 compared to the same period the year prior.
The FSA and Defra declined Carbon Brief’s request to comment on the new figures.
Cold deaths
Thousands of animals also die due to cold stress while travelling to slaughterhouses each year. Carbon Brief assessed data for these deaths in the winters of 2023-24 and 2024-25.
At least 13,057 livestock animals died due to cold weather conditions between December 2024 and February 2025. This is more than double the number – 6,981 – that died the previous winter.
On 6 February 2025 alone, 4,056 poultry deaths were reported due to cold weather impacts.
Some livestock also died due to cold conditions in the summer months.
For example, 326 animals died amid cold weather in the summer of 2023. No official heat-related deaths were recorded in that period, but a number of incidents referred to hot-weather conditions or heat stress as contributing factors.
Overall, 2023 was a very warm year in the UK, with soaring temperatures in June and September. At least 3,103 animals died from heat stress in September, the figures also showed.
Conditions were cooler and wetter in July and August, which may have contributed to the absence of heat-stress deaths.
Most cold deaths during warmer months occurred in the early hours of the morning or overnight when temperatures dropped, the FOI data shows.
On 28 August 2025, for example, 134 chickens died due to cold stress. The incident description outlined that the animals were “very wet”, dirty and had few feathers, which can reduce a chicken’s ability to hold warmth.
The animals were transported overnight to a slaughterhouse and “suffered distress and pain” because of the weather and other factors, the description noted.
The post Livestock heat deaths in transit doubled in UK record-hot summer of 2025 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Livestock heat deaths in transit doubled in UK record-hot summer of 2025
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