Connect with us

Published

on

Weather Guard Lightning Tech

Vestas 7.2 MW Turbine, New Aerones Funding Round

The hosts discuss the recent $62 million funding round for Aerones, Siemens Energy’s call for increased offshore wind capacity in the UK, Canada’s push for offshore wind with Bill C-49, and the installation of Vestas’ 7.2 MW turbine in Germany. And the Coyote Wind Farm in Texas as the Wind Farm of the Week.

Sign up now for Uptime Tech News, our weekly email update on all things wind technology. This episode is sponsored by Weather Guard Lightning Tech. Learn more about Weather Guard’s StrikeTape Wind Turbine LPS retrofit. Follow the show on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, Linkedin and visit Weather Guard on the web. And subscribe to Rosemary Barnes’ YouTube channel here. Have a question we can answer on the show? Email us!

You are listening to the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast brought to you by build turbines.com. Learn, train, and be a part of the Clean Energy Revolution. Visit build turbines.com today. Now here’s your hosts, Alan Hall, Joel Saxon, Phil Totaro, and Rosemary Barnes.

Allen Hall: And welcome back to the Uptown Wind Energy Podcast.

I’m here with Rosemary Barnes, Joel Saxon, and Phil Ro. Uh, crazy week. Again, I don’t know how else to describe it. The, I was just telling our producer this morning that there’s so much news coming out where it seemed like to be a little bit of a lull after the US House bill, but it’s picked right back up again.

And one of the more exciting things that’s happened is A owns closed a $62 million series B. Uh, led by Activate Capital and S two G with, uh, revenue growing at Aeros by about 300% in 2024, and they are getting a lot of requests from [00:01:00] operators in the United States and elsewhere to fix their wind turbine blades.

They have been working pretty closely with GE Renova and NextEra. Over the last, what Joel say two years, maybe a little bit longer on a number of problems.

Joel Saxum: Yeah. A couple years they’ve been doing, uh, bespoke solutions for both of them. They’ve also been doing their, you know, standard things that they’re rolling out to the rest of the market.

But I think this is a good thing. In one article that I was reading, there is like a tier one operator starting to adopt it, right? So. Everybody was kind of approaching that robotic thing, like, yeah, it looks like it’s the future and, you know, but a little trepid, right? Dipping a toe in or dipping a finger into the water, trying it out.

But now it seems like, hey, we got an LEP campaign, coones, we’ve got this robotics problem we wanna solve, collar owns. So they’re starting to get more and more adoption and, and that shows, right, 300%, uh, revenue growth in 2024. So that’s, that’s huge, right? To, to hit that kind of number. So now it’s up to, uh, scaling up.

Uh, the only thing that can cap that number is the amount of robots that they can put outta the [00:02:00] factory over there in Riga.

Allen Hall: And we visited their facility in the United States about a year ago. It was just outside of Dallas, near Lake Dallas of all places. And it is a decent sized facility, but at the time we, when we walked around out back, you just noticed a whole bunch of, uh, parking lot spaces with trailers and capabilities for robots and thought, wow, that there’s a lot of robot, uh, sitting in the parking lot.

And, uh. But then they had, when I asked they, they said, oh, they had a ton of crews already out in the field working. So they do have the ability to get to a number of turbine sites. I, I guess maybe still not enough from what I hear, there’s, the demand has gone through the roof.

Joel Saxum: Well, it’s, it’s a really interesting, or really cool, I guess, opportunity for technicians.

So that’s one of the things that robotics does is it addresses the technician shortage. You got a technician shortage, great, let’s use robots. Then we can start, uh, having that force multiplier, right? Because you could run robots on two turbines from one control van. You can do a lot of stuff there. But as a technician, [00:03:00] what a great opportunity.

If you know blades, if you know in the field, you don’t even have to know that stuff. Not even go work with robotics and AI and like the future of cool things. And I know that a Rowan’s part of their growth and their plans here, they got the $62 million. Of course, we don’t know all the plans they are gonna do with that, but I do know that they’re making a push to hire locally to get local talent, to get local back office to expand their presence in the states.

’cause it’s a, it’s a, it’s a huge market here, right? So they’ve brought on some, some more, uh, horsepower locally from the states, whereas before they were having to bring a lot of technicians over from, from Europe. They’ve started to crack into that and use more local stuff to be able to do things faster and more efficiently, which is, uh, you know, that’s better for all the, all their customers as well.

Allen Hall: Well, I think one key about this announcement is when opportunity presented itself, I. Rowans went after it. And that opportunity was with GE Renova on some tip mast additions. And there was a lot of [00:04:00] blaze that needed some more weight in the tip, and the robot could do it faster. I think at the time, uh, GE was planning on doing it with technicians on ropes, and then, uh, aeros demonstrated they could do it faster, more consistently with robotics, and that was the opening that they needed.

I don’t remember how many, uh, blades they have done that, uh, addition to, but it’s gotta be in the thousands at this point.

Joel Saxum: I’d say this about that Arons team. I mean, you, you and I know Dyna crews very well, the CEO, we know the CTO, we know the sales team. Some of the operations people, they are not shy on grabbing an opportunity and running with it.

And, and I’ll also, this the, one of the, one of, in the, in the wind industry, one of the best companies I’ve seen. Run with primary market research, right? Where someone says, here’s a problem, can you help us solve it? Boom. They’re on it, creating a solution tomorrow. Um, and not a lot of people do that very well.

So [00:05:00] I think that’s been part of their, their prowess in, in the scale that they’ve done. And what of course, and oversubscribed funding round means you’re doing something right. And I, and I think that that shows.

Allen Hall: Over in the uk, Siemens Energy’s UK Vice President warns that allocation round seven, which is upcoming, must award a record six gigawatts of offshore wind capacity to maintain the trajectory towards the 43 to 50 gigawatt goal by 2030.

Target that the UK has set up for itself and there are, the UK is at about 15 gigawatts at the minute, and. So the, the push from Siemens is we have a factory in haul. We make blades and make turbines. We we’re really good in offshore work, but we really need to go. Uh, and that’s driven by governments putting out, uh, awards and driving the industry forward.

And, and Siemens UK vice president is saying, now’s the time. Now is a time that they really need to show progress. I think that’s [00:06:00] generally true. If you do look at, and if you, Joel, I don’t know if you saw this, or maybe Phil, you saw this this week. Uh, the UK put out a map of where all the wind farms are and where all the permanent or the rare earth magnets were located and when those farms are gonna come offline in an effort to potentially recycle those rare earth magnets.

So you have this nice little. A year by year map of the decommissioning of one cype decommission when they could reuse those rare earth magnets. And you can see all the wind farms in the uk. There are a lot of wind farms right now in, mostly on the west coast. Well, some of the west coast, a decent amount on the East coast, but there’s still a lot of onshore wind, which I didn’t realize, uh, that.

UK government effort is really paying dividends, I think, but the rate’s not enough. I guess that’s the problem. The rate is not enough to keep up where their goals are. Phil is, are they gonna be able to do that even if they [00:07:00]do have a, an allocation round of, you know, upwards of six, seven gigawatts coming up.

Phil Totaro: That’s the challenge. They have about, uh, 11,000 onshore turbines, um, in the UK at this point, according to, to our data, uh, and offshore, I forget what the turbine count is, but it, they’re, they’re up there in the, you know, 28 to 30 gigawatts now, um, that’s operational or under construction, um, which is fantastic.

You know what Siemens is saying is that. Based upon what’s happened in previous allocation rounds, um, specifically they didn’t have enough capacity to serve the entire demand. Um, basically what they were willing to allocate at, at a particular price point. Uh, and so it left the project developers and independent power producers is left with, well either, you know, we’ve gotta go find a corporate power offtake, which really for uh, [00:08:00] an offshore wind farm is gonna be much.

More challenging to do, uh, than, than onshore because of the, the size and scale of these things. Of course. Um, so, you know, they are still largely dependent on the government, you know, facilitating this offtake through, you know, national Grid and, and the other grid operators to be able to have. That allocation of power and then, you know, more utility contracts get signed, um, that way.

And, and that’s how people get fed. How

Joel Saxum: many years, Phil, did they have that? Uh, like on there was an onshore moratorium against more new onshore wind. How many years did that last?

Phil Totaro: I wanna say it was like eight. Uh, if memory serves to, just to clarify this, so the head of moratorium in Lower England, which is basically, you know, not Wales, not Scotland, not Northern Ireland or, uh, you know, any of the outer banks areas.

Um, but just lower [00:09:00] England, they’ve removed that. At least in principle. And so far there’s only been one proposed project from Kubico, uh, that was actually had been proposed from like, whatever, 15, 20 years ago. And now they’re like, Hey, great, we can actually do our project now. Uh, you know, like everybody’s just kind of waiting for whatever the mechanism is gonna be.

Um, and where the demand is is gonna come from the, you know, everybody keeps talking about things like AI and data centers and. Et cetera. And, and yet their, their pipeline for project proposals in, uh, you know, the lower England, again, so to speak, is, is, uh, a little bit thin by comparison. They’re really trying to focus more on offshore wind for.

You know, power that’s gonna be fed into London and the surrounding areas. And Scotland is still going strong with, uh, you know, with onshore wind and of course whatever, whatever offshore they’ve got up there. Um, [00:10:00] but they’re building a lot of interconnectors as well with Ireland, with France, um, and I think one with Norway, if memory serves or is it Denmark?

One of those. Um, but they’re, they’ve got, you know, power links going all over the place now to be able to, to, you know, feed and balance power with Europe.

Joel Saxum: Yeah, I think the, I think the interesting thing here is, um, I mean, from Siemens energy point of view and from, I mean, you name it, if it’s Vestas or GE or whoever of their offshore wind needs some wins.

Uh, no pun, no pun intended. Like, we, we need some good news. We need one of these auctions to go well as a, as a group. Um, just to reinstall confidence that offshore wind is the, the way of the future, right? So we have some movements, right? You’ve seen Japan open up their EEZ, that’s fantastic. Um, we saw some of the projects in the states get moving again, great news.

Um, but you see still this kind of lukewarm temperature towards offshore wind. So it would be great to [00:11:00] see this thing go fantastically so that, uh, we get. Kind of the, the winds back in our sails pushing

Allen Hall: offshore wind forward. We’re gonna take a quick break here, but when we come back, we’re gonna talk about Canada getting into offshore wind and what that means as wind energy professionals staying informed is crucial.

And let’s face it difficult. I. That’s why the Uptime podcast recommends PES Wind Magazine. PES Wind offers a diverse range of in-depth articles and expert insights that dive into the most pressing issues facing our energy future. Whether you’re an industry veteran or new to wind, PES Wind has the high quality content you need.

Don’t miss out. Visit p ps win.com today. Well, up in Canada, Canada’s uh, bill. 49 C 49, uh, establishes a joint federal provincial management of offshore renewable energy development with Newfoundland and Labrador, uh, targeting up to $1 trillion in renewable energy investment by [00:12:00] 2041. Trillion’s a big number, Joel.

Uh, the, the regulatory framework addresses jurisdictional complexities that have historically complicated offshore development and is creating some streamlined programing. Permitting that, uh, mirror successful offshore, uh, petroleum models. Now, I, this is really Canada taking advantage of what has happened off the east coast of the United States in that, uh, if progress is gonna slow off the Atlantic, then Massachusetts, New York, New Hampshire, Maine, all those East coast states can be fed and are currently fed.

Um, by Hydro Quebec and others, uh, to provide power. So if they, if Canada does decide to build offshore wind up in Newfoundland, it’s pretty easy to get the power to Canada and to the United States. That could be a huge win. And the cost of doing business in Canada is lower than it is in the United States at the moment.

Joel Saxum: There’s a fundamental trouble there. So, Newfoundland Labrador, [00:13:00] amazing wind resources, like I’ve spent some time up there, right. Um. The other side of it is, uh, about 90, I think it’s like, it’s really high. It’s like 98% of their power is renewable already. It’s, they have a lot of hydro, they have a ton of hydro resources and a lack of, uh, heavy industry or load.

Right. So it’s not, if you look at the population of Newfoundland, like most of it’s in St. John’s Labrador. Labrador City Lab City’s got some population, but the population of those two areas, and I I, the island of Newfoundland and Labrador mainland is so small that there’s not that much demand. Right. I think they’re total, I can’t even say what their total numbers are, but I know they’re low.

Right. And there’s not a lot of heavy industry there. There’s not a lot of things there that are going to take advantage of this wind resource they have. So you’re either gonna be looking at green hydrogen of some sort. Or you’re gonna be exporting. So whether you’re exporting back to the [00:14:00] mainland or you’re HVDC exporting down to the states, and that’s the route I would go simply because even when you start passing back to the mainland, so you’re gonna New Brunswick and that, like, there’s no load there either.

Like there’s no load until you hit Halifax. Right? So there’s, there’s just a lack of, there’s there, they have the abundance of wind resource and a lack of off take. So. Put it in a cable and ship it down to the states where we need it anyways. And, uh, triage it that way, that’s the way I would look at it.

I’m, I’m super happy up for, for them.

Rosemary Barnes: But Quebec’s already connected to the US right? They’re, yeah. So if they are, their grids already very renewable, but it’s hydro, which is dispatchable. And so if they can replace more of their own, um, you know, local generation, even if they can’t connect all of that, um, you know, new, the new projects, if they can’t get capacity to connect it all to the us you know, directly, they could at least reduce the amount of their hydro that they have to use [00:15:00] themselves and then allow them to sell it to the US when, um, yeah, when prices are high.

So it seems like it would still be, still be a win. And it also seems like it would be a whole lot easier to develop those wind farms than to go slightly south and you know, the troubles that the US is having developing. Developing those regions for offshore wind seems like this would be an easier solution.

I don’t see a whole lot of like the, you know, the northeast of the us. So many people live there and they just seem like really set on categorically eliminating every single, um, sensible idea that they could have for. Generating electricity into the future and not just assuming that they want to decarbonize, even forgetting about that, they’re still, like, they, they won’t, they, they won’t build anything basically.

Every, you know, you can’t, um, take advantage of the inland wind. They don’t want more nuclear. They don’t want more gas. They don’t want, uh, yeah, the, the, they don’t want offshore wind. [00:16:00] I, I don’t know. There’s, there’s a finite number of options that you can. That you can choose from to, um, figure out your new, you know, what your future electricity mix is gonna be.

Um, it seems like it might be easier to, uh, you know, build a project in Canada, but they don’t seem so, so, uh, you know, bothered by every single option that you could come up with to generate electricity. They seem quite happy to, you know, generate cheap green energy and, um, sell it at a premium to the us so.

Maybe that’s a, a win-win for everybody. I mean, it’s a, it’s a win-win except for in probably the, the cost of electricity that, um, you’ll pay in, in New York, obviously it would be cheaper to just directly build the offshore wind and connect it right into the grid there, rather than having to go across the border via HVDC, but

Allen Hall: I don’t know.

I, I, yeah, I’m really wondering about the economics of that Rosemary. Just because things are cheaper in Canada. Well, yeah, it was about 30% less than what it costs in America to do things. [00:17:00] So just during that 30% number, if you could install wind at a 30% lower cost, you could then spend some money on building a cable or two.

To me, that’s, that would, it would start to pencil out. You have to start thinking. America’s not gonna move. They’re

Joel Saxum: attached to Canada permanently. One, one of the things that we’ve said that there’s an issue with the United States, okay, we talked Jones Act and Vessels and these kind of things, but one of the, you know, the crux of the Jones Act is people and the fact that along that, like East Coast of the United States, while it is a maritime or a marine environment, it is not a maritime society, right?

You don’t hit. A lot of big ocean going like, like when you’re in Denmark, a lot of people have worked on boats. They’ve worked offshore, they’ve done these things. You don’t run into that along the East Coast of the United States. However, when you go to PEI and Cape Breton and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, PE, like those people, they’ve.

They’ve lived with the [00:18:00] ocean, right? That’s, that’s their bread and butter. They’ve been on fishing boats. They know there’s a lot of mariners up there. So I think that if you’re looking for the ability to ramp up and scale up a, uh, a workforce, it might be easier to do it there as well. So there’s some advantages to doing things in Canada.

Allen Hall: Do you think that, uh, they’ll find. Operators willing to take that risk or who have put down deposits on turbines that they can’t put into the United States that’ll just say, Hey, we can move up to Canada and do it there.

Joel Saxum: Well, I think there’s, there’s a couple of trouble troubling things there. If you wanna operate in Newfoundland Labrador, offshore wind, you better have your wits about you when it comes to o and m, ’cause that is an unforgiving environment.

I mean, you’re literally, you’re combating, uh, icebergs, right? The Titanic sunk off the coast of Newfoundland. So just so we’re all clear that their icebergs are a real thing up there. Really nasty. You’re in the North Atlantic now. You’re, you’re not in Kansas anymore, right? It’s, it’s [00:19:00] nasty up there. It ain’t Australia, I’ll tell you that.

So making sure that you, you’ve got your o and m budget squared away and everything is great. The other, the other economic thing. I don’t know what kind of, now they’ve said they’ve streamlined some permitting and some other things here in this bill that Canada put up. Great. To export renewable energy from Canada to Mexico or to Mexico, from Canada to the United States.

You got, you got to have your, the, the, uh, economics. Correct. Because one of the things we always talk about in the o and m world is how much better the PPAs are in Canada. Right where you’re gonna see, you’re gonna see in Michigan a 60, $70 PPA, you go across the border in Canada and that is a a hundred dollars PPA or $110 PPA.

Right. So if you have a hundred, if you can, if you can build a, yeah, if you can build a wind farm, and, and I’m, I’m just looking at the map right now, I’m going clo a little bit closer. If you can build a wind, wind farm off shore in Nova Scotia, which is a couple hundred miles from Maine. Right. Not a big deal.[00:20:00]

You better hope that you can get more for that power coming into the United States than Nova Scotia would allow you in an offtake PPA agreement, because you’re gonna have to beat that to send it elsewhere.

Rosemary Barnes: But did you know that there’s a plan to connect the um, yeah, connect Canada? I, I think connect Labrador.

It might be from somewhere in that region anyway, to the, to the UK to. Island, maybe

Joel Saxum: that, I mean, that makes sense.

Rosemary Barnes: Yeah. I mean it’s long, I think it’s four or 5,000 kilometers, um, cable, something like that. Um, may maybe it goes ahead. Maybe it doesn’t. It, yeah. It, it’s long, it’s unprecedented. There’s a whole lot of technical challenges to solve, and I.

But you know, like as far as some of these, uh, really big interconnections, I mean, there’s always a political challenge that, you know, I just mentioned between, um, Canada and the US Probably wasn’t the slam dunk that you would’ve thought it was a couple of months ago. But some of the other big ones that are planned, like from Australia, they plan to connect the north of Australia to Singapore via Indonesia.

I mean, we’re not countries that are, you know, extremely, uh, close [00:21:00]on our, um, you know, international relations. Then the other big one is X links between Morocco and the uk. And again, like these aren’t countries that we’re not like at war or anything, or worried about imminent war. I mean, we’re, we’re friendly but not extremely like-minded.

You know, between, um, Ireland and, uh, and Canada. I mean, that’s, as you know, that, that’s more closely aligned in terms of, you know, culture and, uh, history than any of those other pairings. So I do think it has that benefit.

Phil Totaro: The challenge with this is that we actually ended up canceling a lot of the grant money for some of those HVDC lines we were gonna put.

To expand the capacity between the US and Quebec. Uh, so they’re gonna build, you know, additional pipeline there to be able to, to offtake some of that power. But we’re not gonna be able to accept it if we don’t have the matching HBDC [00:22:00] capacity to be able to offtake the power down here. So that’s still a technical challenge to be overcome potentially in another three and a half years.

Allen Hall: When we come back from the break, we’ll talk about vest’s newest. Onshore turbine, a masses 7.2 megawatt machine. Don’t let blade damage catch you off guard. OGs. Ping sensors detect issues before they become expensive, time consuming problems from ice buildup and lightning strikes to pitch misalignment and internal blade cracks.

OGs Ping has you covered. Their cutting edge sensors are easy to install, giving you the power to stop damage before it’s too late. Visit eLog ping.com and take control of your turbine’s health today. Well, Vestas has achieved its first commercial installation of its V 1 72, 7 0.2 megawatt turbine in Germany.

Joel, this is awesome. Which marks the latest evolution of, uh, the Inventus platform. They’re looking towards medium and low wind sites, [00:23:00]which I think makes a ton of sense.

But they’re also, uh, I think the hub height’s like 175 meters because they’re having issues in Europe. Right, right. It’s 175 meters. Uh, but the rotor, Joel is 172. Right. So. The rotor diameter and the hub height, you know, it’s, it’s, they’re approaching one another. Uh, 7.2 would be a big term in the United States.

GE is only offering what a 6.1 at the moment is kind of where they stopped. This one makes sense

Joel Saxum: that they’re putting it in Germany though, because Germany classically, right, they’re a little bit more land constrained for turbine locations, right. It’s not like the United States where you drive across Iowa and you’re just like, boom, boom.

There’s a hundred turbines there and a hundred turbines there. Um, they’ve gotta pay a little bit more attention to, they’ve got a lot of little smaller towns in places and different local laws. Uh, so you’d see smaller, I imp smaller wind farms. And I think what you’ll start to see here is, is [00:24:00] as those wind farms have that interconnect and they’re good to go, but they’re getting aged out, you’ll see one of these turbines replace, you know, 2, 3, 4 of the old ones.

Uh, is, is what I could see in some of those European. Places as well.

Allen Hall: Is there a broader market for a seven megawatt machine? I think so. Um, I guess I’m asking is there’s a lot of low wind areas that tends to be what’s left. All the prime locations with medium high wind are already taking. So if you want to hit somewhere and put a lot of turbines up, you have to be low to medium.

Speed is, it’s a question of the hub height. The 175 meter hub height is. Big.

Phil Totaro: Yeah. And the, the challenge with that is that, uh, I think Rosie mentioned it last week or two weeks ago, about when people build wind farms, they interconnect them to the closest, uh, available transmission. Certainly, you know, that’s what they’ve done in Australia.

That’s what we did in the United States as well. Um, and. [00:25:00] You’re necessarily going to build out everything you can in what we used to call kind of IEC class one winds. That’s the highest, you know, average wind speed about 10 meters a second. Once you’ve kind of fully penetrated those sites that are in close proximity to transmission, you start stepping down, you know, your average wind speed, and then that’s why you need to increase the, the power density.

And basically for a given, you know, nameplate capacity of the turbine, you’re, you’re making a bigger and bigger rotor all the time and a higher and higher hub height. Um, so where is the market for this besides, you know, Scandinavia and Germany and a few places in eastern Europe? Australia is the big market.

Chile, Argentina. If Brazil decides to come back as a market, that will be a market for these as well. Um, it’s basically places where they still have wide open country and they’re not gonna be land constrained. Now, theoretically, in the United States, we’re not land constrained, but. We, uh, you know, you’re only gonna [00:26:00] be able to put these in specific places where you don’t have FAA interference or, you know, you, a lot of counties and townships now have, you know, tip clearances from, you know, adjacent dwellings that are gonna preclude you from using anything this big in this market.

It’s one of the challenges that a company like Weg, who also has a seven megawatt turbine, they’re trying to sell it in the United States and, you know, it hasn’t been, unfortunately for them going. Uh, very fast because there’s only a handful of sites where they can kind of put that thing and, and repower those, um, you know, these type of smaller projects with something this, you know, this massive.

Rosemary Barnes: Yeah. And I think that equation is changing a bit recently. Like, um, like you said, you know, you start out in high wind speed sites that are near transmission and then kind of go down. I think what counts as near transmission is sort of. Changing because it’s harder. I think everybody around the world is finding it hard to build out even small bits of new transmission that they [00:27:00] need now compared to what we thought that it would be like a few years ago.

So I know in Australia our grid operator is explicitly, um, trying to move away from having to rely on that. So that means, yeah, building out more renewables in or close to urban areas. And, um, yeah, part of that, especially for wind, is gonna mean accepting a, a lower quality resource, which is, you know, the cost of energy from the, a lower, a lower speed wind site is gonna be higher than an equivalent, you know, higher speed one.

Um, Australia is definitely, like, when I talk to developers, onshore developers, they definitely are largely thinking bigger, bigger, bigger turbines for onshore still. So there’s an appetite for it. Um, I do question, you know, to what extent it makes sense.

Allen Hall: And the question I always have is, how many turbines do you have to sell early on to make the project profitable?

Rosemary Barnes: Oh, I don’t think the early sales are [00:28:00] gonna make it profitable or not, but, um, definitely most of the. OEMs like to have a large initial customer or a few before they start developing something.

Something that’s quite new. Unless they’re, you know, like really certain that it’s gonna be their new workhorse platform. Um, you know, if it’s a bit niche, they definitely want some, um, advanced sales to cover the cost of development. At the very least.

Joel Saxum: I think, I think Phil, one time, a long time ago you said it would be roughly cost like a billion dollars when you go from a brand new turbine model.

Now this is Inventus platform, so this platform has been done before.

Phil Totaro: That was for offshore. We, we have run numbers in the past on, um, exactly this kind of profitability question, like how many units do you have to produce of each make and model for the OEMs, which is actually why when, when Siemens Gmaa merged, their numbers looked so.

Weird that we were like, this can’t be true. But it’s exactly predicted [00:29:00]why they ran into the profitability problems that they did even prior to trying to sell the, the four megawatt platform. Um, we kind of held back from publicly announcing that because we thought we were wrong and I should have, you know, insisted that we do it because it, it would’ve really shed a lot of light on, on what was really going on over there.

But anyway, in the meantime, it’s, it’s roughly for like a. Two to 2.53 megawatt turbine. It was about 350 units as you go scale up nameplate capacity, it starts coming down. Um. You know, in, in the number of units you need to sell, but it’s still roughly around, um, let’s say, you know, six to 800 megawatts worth of capacity needs to be sold just to break even.

Um, and that’s assuming, ’cause again, back in the day when we did the calculation, they were still having like a 12% margin. They’re not getting that anymore. It’s maybe like two to 5% now. So let’s say conservatively, it’s probably [00:30:00] about 1.2 gigawatts worth of capacity needs to be sold for them to just.

Break even. And, uh, you need, you know, really to turn a, a serious profit to get, you know, executives interested. Probably about two gigawatts worth of sales. So this week’s Wind Farm of the Week is

Joel Saxum: the Coyote Wind Farm. This is an EDF Wind Farm in Scurry County, Texas. So it’s 243 megawatts. And we’re, we’re switching gears and gonna talk about the SGRE.

4.5 megawatt, 1 45 turbine. On this one there’s 59 turbines. So they’re big turbines, right? Big turbines in the United States. More power with less footprint. An interesting thing here is, uh, at the time this thing was put in, that was some of the first, uh, installations of the SGRE 1 45. Uh, in the states and Masar, uh, owns 50% of this thing with, uh, EDF.

So you have 50% EDF, 50% masar. EDF runs the wind farm of course, for them. Uh, but Masar money coming from overseas, coming from the Middle East. Um, so, and that was [00:31:00] one of their first to four raise into the United States as well. Um, this wind farm can generate, uh, enough power to sufficiently supply about 65,000 households, which is really interesting.

Uh, and again, we always wanna focus on community engagement. Here we’re talking Wind Farm of the Week. Uh, what they did when they built this wind farm, uh, was to make sure that they engage with the local stakeholders they had meeting after meeting, after meeting edfs and the team out there, uh, talking with the locals, and they got, uh, everybody to buy into this one locally.

And there’s a really cool, and what I wanna focus on here is there’s a really cool, uh, YouTube video. So if you’re on YouTube, uh, spending some time at work or, or at home. Uh, just look at the Coyote Wind Project, uh, from EDF and they have a video there about how they showcase this thing locally, uh, and how they work with the local government.

So the Wind Farm of the week this week is the Coyote Wind Farm from EDF.

Allen Hall: Thanks for that Joel and Rosemary, Phil and Joel and I, we’ll be back next week from the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast. [00:32:00] Everybody keep their heads up. There’s a lot happening in wind at the moment. Uh, it’s gonna change, it’s gonna get better.

We just need to focus on profitability. That’s what we really need to do right now. And I, I, I get everybody is frustrated and they should be, uh, but not everything’s locked in, in the United States. Things are headed. At least it smells like things gonna be headed in a little bit of a better space over the next couple of weeks.

So let’s see what happens and we’ll see you here. Next week on the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast.

https://weatherguardwind.com/vestas-aerones-funding/

Continue Reading

Renewable Energy

ORE Catapult Blade Survey, Siemens Gamesa Turns a Profit

Published

on

Weather Guard Lightning Tech

ORE Catapult Blade Survey, Siemens Gamesa Turns a Profit

ORE Catapult wants industry blade failure data, Siemens Gamesa posts its first profit since 2022, and Vattenfall sweeps Denmark’s offshore auction. Fill out the ORE Catapult survey!

The Uptime Wind Energy Podcast is brought to you by Weather Guard Lightning Tech, creators of the StrikeTape Ultra LPS retrofit. Subscribe to Uptime’s Substack newsletter. And check out Rosemary’s “Engineering with Rosie” Youtube channel. Have a question we can answer on the show? Email us!

Allen Hall: Welcome to the Uptime Wind Energy podcast. I’m your host, Allen Hall, and I’m here with Rosemary Barnes, Matthew Sted, and Yolanda Padron. And it has been a real interesting week out in the renewable land, uh, if you’ve been watching some of the news, and we’re gonna talk about a number of those stories this week.

But I wanna lead off with what ORE Catapult is doing over in the UK. So if, if you haven’t followed ORE Catapult, they are a, a research investigative arm and a huge proponent of wind, offshore wind in the United Kingdom, and they’ve done a, a tre- really tremendous amount of work in some of the, uh, particular problems that exist in wind trying to help [00:01:00] solve them.

They have a survey that’s out, and if you haven’t seen it, you can just Google ORE Catapult and put in survey, and you’ll come to either an article or get to their site. And Rosemary and Yolanda, there’s a couple of particular items that they’re asking questions about. Uh, a lot of it is asking specific questions about torsional stability of blades.

Have you seen more difficulty with torsion? Is… Do we need a torsion test? I think that was one of the questions. Uh, also looking at ranking of the different issues that happen with blades in particular. That’s what I noticed. Uh, you know, where’s lightning? Where’s blade connections? Where’s structural issues?

Where do you rank all those different things? And I, I have not seen a survey like this in quite a while. Is this something that we need to do more of? I know [00:02:00] ORE Catapult will get a huge amount of feedback, at least I hope, over in the UK and, and around Europe. I don’t think many Americans are gonna be contributing to that too much since you don’t have a lot of offshore wind.

But is this going in the right direction? Do we need more of these industry surveys about structural blade issues?

Yolanda Padron: Yeah, I think these surveys are a really good idea. Uh, the only thing that scares me from the owner side is that sometimes there’s a little bit of, uh- Teams don’t really love the idea of sharing information that might seem like it’s, um, like intellectual property to their internal teams.

Even if as an engineer, of course, you love the idea of sharing and finding out like, um, what everybody else is, is experiencing on their site. Um, and so I really hope that the teams can really look, like their internal teams can really look past that because this would be a really great tool [00:03:00] for everybody to use.

I know I looked at the survey myself and some of the questions kind of gave people the, the opportunity to kind of anonymize their data and then just kind of share it and have it. It seemed like it, it would probably be a platform that everybody could look at or everybody that, that shared could look at.

And I think that it could be really, really good for operators to be able to know kind of if what they’re seeing on site is normal and just to be able to see what they’re signing up for when there’s a new site coming in. Or if it’s a site that’s been operational for a while, you can see what’s, hopefully, what’s happening to a quite older site than yours.

So just to, to be able to be a bit more prepared, um, since a lot of these sites are from different own- owners. But I think it’s a really good idea.

Allen Hall: The survey asked questions about leading edge erosion, torsional loads, root joint integrity, lightning damage, manufacturing defects, which is a big [00:04:00] issue right now, extreme loading events, which also, uh, is, uh, coming about more often, uh, repair performance, and end of life fatigue.

So there’s a, a series of questions about that and when do you experience these items in the lifetime of a blade. Is it more towards the beginning of the operation or more towards the end? That is important to know ’cause it, how you go about managing blades depends on that. The torsional questions were more specific.

Uh, in your experience, how well understood are the effects on blade longevity of torsional loads compared to bending loads? And I think that relates back to some of the, uh, issues that have been seen on some offshore blades where there’s no existing test for torsion because it’s so hard to do. Whereas bending loads, we pretty well understand that and can do lifetime testing essentially for, for bending loads.

So the torsional one I think is gonna raise a lot of question marks to hopefully with people, and we can come up [00:05:00] with a, a better approach to that.

Yolanda Padron: Hopefully, yeah. I think this is, I mean, this is just a really good idea to if, if everybody could partake. Um, I would really love to see something similar if people could in, in onshore.

And so just something that’s, that’s shared a, uh, a little bit more widely I think would be really, really great. Uh, the only thing that might stre- or not stress me out, but- you know, I think people need to be careful about is just making sure that you’re not, um, that you actually use your data and not just kind of like, “Oh, I know that I remember this terrible lightning damage that I got in this really, really bad area, so I’m gonna mark as though most of my lightning damage happens in that bad area.”

So just, just make sure you don’t use confirmation bias for, for that, but

Matthew Stead: I can also add to it as well ’cause, um, we’ve done a fair bit of work with all Catapult over the years, um, particularly through the new IEC standard for blade O&M. Um, and, uh, [00:06:00] definitely through the new blade O&M standard, the topic of blade twist has come up multiple times.

Um- And also adding to that, you know, our organization has done twist on, twist measurements on 100 meter blades, and the twist that we measured was more than the OEM expected. Um, so I think this is a bit of a sleeper topic, um, and I think OR Catapult is doing the right thing by gathering more information.

Allen Hall: There is a l- little database that’s gonna be put together, at least looking at the questions. Question 12, and everybody hopefully will go in and, and participate in the survey, but it says, “Would you be interested in sharing redacted failure data into a industry-wide database to help inform research agenda for blade development and O&M tools and solutions?”

That is a great idea. Having a database so we understand the scale of problems and can put some numbers [00:07:00] to them, and then we can do some more research in those areas, and focus research where we’re actually gonna spend money in the right places, which has been my fight for the last five, six years, where we spend a lot of money, but not necessarily where we need to.

That’s a great question, and hopefully OR Catapult does p- put together a database.

Rosemary Barnes: Companies really, really, really struggle to provide access to their data. Like, um, it, y- yeah, it, it’s, it’s very hard to get it beyond just using for their own specific project. I’ll be, I’ll be so happy if this database gets up and becomes publicly available so that every- everybody can use it to create the solutions that the industry needs.

But I know how hard a challenge it is, so I’m wishing them heaps of, heaps of luck to get it to work.

Matthew Stead: And can I also add that, um, OR Catapult also did a wonderful presentation at Blades Europe, where they talked about life extension. They talked about the actual loading on the blades, um, influencing the fatigue life.

And so I think, you know, that excellent [00:08:00] database hopefully, as we talked about, gets fed into some of their work about life extension.

Allen Hall: Well, OR Catapult is trying to get ahead of blade failures before they cost money. Uh, our next company knows exactly what that costs. Siemens Gamesa is still climbing out of a serial defect problem, and it posted its first profit in four years.

So we’ll be back to talk about that in a moment.

Speaker: Are you overspending on lightning repairs? Most operators are, because solving lightning damage is complicated. Weather Guard Lightning Tech helps operators reduce lightning damage. Our innovative StrikeTape lightning diverter protects over 20,000 blades worldwide.

Now, StrikeTape Ultra installs faster than ever. StrikeTape Ultra cures uptower in just 15 minutes, even in cold weather. Visit weatherguardwind.com to schedule a call.

Allen Hall: Siemens Gamesa has finally turned a [00:09:00] profit, its first time since 2022. Uh, now comes the hard part. Order intake in the third quarter fell 77% from 4.89 billion euros a year ago to 1.05 billion Chief Executive Christian Bruch, uh, says a lot of the offshore projects that were originally planned are slipping, and as we’ve seen in the news, and that developers are not willing to make final investment decisions right now.

Uh, in Germany, developers are lobbying to hand 16 gigawatts of offshore sites back to the states, and, and Bruch says that the, the capacity is, is not going to be built. Onshore, uh, the relaunched 5.X platform is ramping up slowly after the serial defect shutdown, with approvals still holding some orders back.

So Siemens Gamesa is going to make a push, or [00:10:00] Omtera I guess it is called now, w- is going to make a push, uh, into the 5.X machine and continue on on the offshore side. But boy, some of these, uh, auctions and, uh, bidding processes are not great for Siemens at the moment.

Matthew Stead: I’ve got a question. Did, um, did Siemens actually stop selling for a while as well?

Is that part of their order intake loss?

Allen Hall: Some of the machines, I believe, the 4.X and the 5.X, when they had the serial defect issues, uh, they put a hold on them for a little while and, and did a complete redesign, I believe, on the blades. But other turbines I thought were still being offered for sale, and I thought I saw s- some installs in the United States going on, more on the two megawatt, three megawatt machines, uh, but n- not the bigger ones.

And, and offshore too, like it sound- does sound like the large offshore wind project in the United States, which is the coastal Virginia offshore wind project, uh, off the, you know, a couple of miles off the coast of Virginia, is [00:11:00]going a little bit slower than they thought. Uh, so maybe there’s a, a little bit to the 14.

It’s, that’s a Siemens Gamesa 14-236 direct drive machine that’s going in there. So there, there’s some still learning curves going on from what I can see, but it does seem like it’s, uh, it’s, you know, formerly Siemens Energy, there’s a huge amount of money to be had in this corporation. So if the wind division is not doing all that great, it, it’s kind of like GE Vernova.

There, there’s other ways to make money.

Matthew Stead: There’s also, I mean, I’m just wondering if there’s a bit of a blip. It’s just a short-term correction in terms of the order intake, and, you know, once they get back on track, uh, it’ll, it’ll revert again. Uh, that’s what I hope for, hope for.

Allen Hall: We’re gonna move on to Vattenfall.

Uh, there was a Danish offshore auction, and Vattenfall won both of them. And Ørsted did bid and didn’t win, and no one seems to care too much that Ørsted didn’t win. Uh, and Vattenfall, it’s, it’s a huge deal for [00:12:00] Vattenfall. So- Orsted not winning in their own backyard does seem like a problem politically

Rosemary Barnes: If Denmark wanted to have, you know, local companies winning these auctions, then they could’ve, they could’ve, uh, you know, made it for l- local companies only or tilted the playing field in their favor.

Um, so yeah, uh, I don’t know, maybe that’s the outcome that they want. If they want… It’s always like a, a tension, right? If you, you want cheap- the cheapest prices on one hand, you want local content on the other, and if you, you know, anything you do to one of those two sides affects the other. So yeah, like, in general, the more you encourage local content, then the more restrictions you place on companies to choose a cheaper supplier in every case.

Uh, Denmark is at least well-placed to have good world-class suppliers in, you know, most, most categories of the things that you need in an offshore wind [00:13:00] farm. But yeah, I mean, you see it all over the world. Uh, you know, Australia periodically tries to, uh, you know, get more local content, but it’s very, it’s very hard for us ’cause we don’t have a whole thriving ecosystem.

And so it’s like you’ve gotta pick out the one thing that you think that we could compete on and then subsidize that, and then it’s just, like, so… it’s such a weird distortion. And if companies didn’t already wanna choose that local supplier, it’s because it’s more expensive, so therefore you are necessarily adding cost.

Um, I think Taiwan d- uh, has h- experienced a lot of this with their offshore industry, right? Where they kind of s- they got really enthusiastic about local content, and everyone’s like, “Yeah, this is a great thing to do ’cause you can get local manufacturing, and you can develop a whole thriving industry But then when it comes down to it, you know, it’s not so great to have, like, whoever set up the, the system that you’ve gotta adhere to to get these projects in place, like, they’re not the experts in developing offshore [00:14:00] projects for a cheap price and on schedules, obviously.

Other- otherwise they’d be working in that, in that role. So you, uh, do end up making things really hard for the developers, and then you- they ended up with very expensive projects. And, um, because the local content, you know, like, they had what sounded, in theory at the start, like a good, um, like a good idea.

They start off with a low local content requirement and gradually ratcheted it up as the industry is supposed to mature. But what they saw was the prices just ratcheted up in parallel. Um, especially once the few things that can be competitively supplied, uh, locally, once you… That is not sufficient to y- y- you know, once the local content amount exceeds what you can achieve with those competitive industries, then yeah, you do start to see people having to spend a lot more and add a lot of project risk if you’re, y- you know, uh, going with brand new suppliers that have never, you know, never supplied a project like that before.

So I can kind of [00:15:00] understand why Denmark wouldn’t be so focused on, yeah, our local, our local company needs to win.

Matthew Stead: Yeah. Yeah, com- competition is a good thing, isn’t it? So yeah, you can’t have everyone winning all the time.

Rosemary Barnes: I think it’s such an interesting time, though, in the world where, and I’m changing my mind about this, like, yes, competition is a good thing, but if you only have competition, um, and don’t consider your country’s, you know, local competitiveness, then you end up not being able to make anything, especially when we’ve got, y- you know, in the world at the moment, there’s so much globalization, like, way more than ever before in the world’s history.

And, you know, there are countries or our country mostly, that has, you know, 50% of market share for certain things, and more for other things that people need. It’s like, so- They can obviously, just based on scale alone, can produce things at prices that no [00:16:00] one else can compete with. And then you add in that not every country is totally committed to 100% fair global playing field and, you know, there are subsidies involved and incentives and that sort of thing.

Like, you do just end up with every other country not thinking it’s economic to make anything at all. And then, yeah, I mean, everyone knows monopolies are bad, right? I don’t think that would be any different for supply chains. So I think, yeah, like we’re about to have a re-reckoning or are in the process of a re-reckoning about how much globalization is a good thing, how much free trade is a good thing, how much, you know, just letting the market take care of it is a good thing because nobody wants to end up in a situation where, you know, the whole world is dependent on one country to make absolutely everything.

Yolanda Padron: Yeah, but is it, isn’t it also kind of like a cultural thing here for Vattenfall, um, like for Dane- Denmark itself to try to be very [00:17:00]strict about the rules and if Ørsted didn’t win the bid, then they didn’t win the bid type of thing? Like, to not try to give them as much of a, of an advantage ’cause they’re still owned majorly by the Crown, right?

Allen Hall: It’s like 50% ownership by the state, right, Ørsted still.

Yolanda Padron: In general they, they have a lot of- very Danish rules of like against, you know, uh, in the US against like PACs and lobbying and stuff, and things that are very common here because it’s more culturally aligned with Denmark. Um, so I guess it, I mean, it does, it, it does make sense, right?

That they would try to separate that as much as possible to try to not have that conflict of interest.

Rosemary Barnes: I think Denmark, um, definitely wouldn’t consider themselves rule followers, ’cause if you compare them to their immediate neighbors like, um, Sweden and Germany, the Danes are like a lot more relaxed.

They have this saying in, [00:18:00] uh, Denmark that i- in, in Sweden, everything that isn’t forbidden is mandatory. That’s how they think of, of the Swedes.

Allen Hall: Wow. There’s a lot that’s not forbidden, Rosemary. You’re going into some murky waters there. Okay.

Rosemary Barnes: That’s their perception, and I think it is true relative to Sweden.

The Swede- Swedes are more rule followers. But as, um, someone that comes from a probably more relaxed country, again, yes, the Danes did really like following rules. Um, like a lot of unwritten rules as well. I remember one specific example I remember actually, uh, we had like a whole, uh, I did Danish language classes when I was there, and part of that was like a cultural education.

One of the classes was based around, uh, some of the unwritten rules in society, and one of them is it’s this date, and I don’t remember the date, but there is a certain date that if you have not trimmed your hedge by that date, that is just like y- you are not an upstanding member of society. Like, that is just like ab- absolutely not okay and like everybody that walks [00:19:00] past your house is like, “Oh my God, they haven’t trimmed their hedge yet,” and people will be talking about it and in the canteen at work.

So definitely they do like to follow the rules. But what I will say about Denmark also is that I think that they usually top the world’s list, or at least close to the top in terms of trust. Um, they trust people in general, but especially they trust government institutions. And I think that you can’t have trust in government institutions if they pick and choose, um, when they’re going to enforce the rules or not.

So I think that in that sense, yeah, of course, they’re not going to after the fact go, “Oh, this, the, oh, we had an auction, but the result wasn’t the way we liked it, so we’re gonna change it.” Like, that’s not a very trustworthy thing for a government to do. They do rely, obviously we’re a small country, they rely a lot on international trade, and so I think that they would see a big risk in, um, yeah, having their auction be anything but fully transparent and fair.

So yeah. Anyway, that’s my, my cultural interpretation based on having lived in Denmark for five years. Uh, [00:20:00] five years ago now. It’s been a while.

Allen Hall: That wraps up another episode of the Uptime Wind Energy podcast. If today’s discussion sparked any questions or ideas, we’d love to hear from you. Reach out to us on LinkedIn.

And if you found value in today’s conversation, please leave us a review. It really helps other wind energy professionals discover the show. And don’t forget to subscribe so you never miss an episode. And for Rosey, Yolanda, and Matthew, I’m Allen Hall, and we’ll see you here next week on the Uptime Wind Energy podcast.

ORE Catapult Blade Survey, Siemens Gamesa Turns a Profit

Continue Reading

Renewable Energy

Trump and Food Stamps

Published

on

A couple of facts, for those who still put a value of the truth:

Trump has had little to nothing to do with work requirements and government sponsored supplemental nutrition, and

More Trump voters every day are regretting their choices.

Trump and Food Stamps

Continue Reading

Renewable Energy

Liberalism: A Question from a Reader

Published

on

Good question John.  Thanks for asking.  A partial answer lies below.

Liberalism: A Question from a Reader

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2022 BreakingClimateChange.com