Nicola Sturgeon is an MSP (Member of the Scottish Parliament) and former First Minister of Scotland. Ben Wilson is International Policy Lead for Stop Climate Chaos Scotland.

The world is at a crossroads. The impacts of climate change are destabilising societies, causing conflict, and deepening economic hardship. Yet, instead of rising to the challenge, too many political leaders are retreating from climate commitments, undermining a global consensus that has anchored peace and security since the Second World War.

This, then, is a moment to remind ourselves that climate action is not just about protecting the environment – it is also essential for global security. Failure to act now will drive population displacement, fuel political unrest, and create conflict.

Climate change is already driving conflicts around the world. The war in Tigray, Ethiopia, was fuelled in part by climate-induced droughts. Similarly, in Sudan, shifting migration patterns due to desertification and water scarcity have heightened ethnic and regional tensions, leading to violence and mass displacement.

These are not isolated incidents. If we don’t act now, climate disasters will fuel human insecurity on an unprecedented scale. 

The economic consequences of climate inaction also pose a serious threat to peace. When communities lose their livelihoods, social unrest can follow. Economic hardship opens the door to far-right forces seeking to stoke xenophobia and racism. Governments that neglect climate action now increase the likelihood of instability in future.

“Forgotten” fragile states unite to end climate-finance blind spot

Net zero will bring economic benefits

The trend of global leaders backtracking on climate action is being driven by an increasingly sensationalist (and ill-informed) public narrative that net zero is bad for the economy. This is a falsehood now (a recent CBI report showed that the net-zero industry is an important driver of growth) and certainly wrong in the long-term. Ignoring climate action now will saddle us with significant financial and human costs in the years ahead.

As the Stern Review made clear nearly two decades ago, the economic benefits of taking decisive action on climate change far outweigh the costs of inaction. But it’s not just about economics – it’s also about justice.

The latest IPCC reports confirm that climate impacts are already driving poverty, hunger and displacement in some of the world’s most vulnerable communities. These inequalities will deepen – with consequences for all of us – unless emissions are reduced and adaptation efforts accelerated. 

UK aid budget cuts threaten climate finance pledge to vulnerable nations, experts warn

The decision of the UK and many other governments to cut aid budgets to fund defence is particularly jarring. The climate finance commitments of the Paris Agreement will almost certainly be hit, further undermining the delicate balance between the Global North and the Global South. COP29 in Baku only just avoided collapse. Without a renewed commitment to climate justice this year, COP30 and the underlying premise of global cooperation on climate change will be at risk.

Loss and damage funding not a luxury

There is no doubt that climate justice demands a sharper focus on mitigating emissions and adaptation. But it needs more than that.

At COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland became the first country to commit finance to the issue of loss and damage. Loss and damage refers to payments from the Global North to the Global South to deal with the irreversible climate impacts they are already experiencing. It is an act of reparation rather than charity.

The Scottish Government’s initial commitment of £2m was modest but heralded as “breaking the taboo” on this most contentious of issues. Other countries followed and by COP28, the United Nations Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage had been established with more than US$700 million pledged.

Loss and damage fund to hand out $250 million in initial phase

In the face of pushback against action on mitigation and adaptation, and a re-emergence of climate denial in UK and global politics, many people, even climate activists, might wonder if loss and damage is now an unaffordable luxury, and question if this is the time to spend political capital, let alone hard cash, on reparations.

In our view, stepping back from loss and damage would be a serious mistake. Failure to ameliorate the irreversible impacts already being suffered will drive more conflict across the world. Moreover, if the Global North breaks its promises again, the understandable scepticism of the Global South about the efficacy of the COP process will only grow. Acting in good faith on all aspects of climate injustice is fundamental to any vision of a peaceful world.

At its core, climate action is a question of justice. The poorest countries have contributed least to the crisis and yet they bear the brunt of its impacts. This is not just a moral failure – it is also a geopolitical risk. We cannot expect the Global South to cooperate in a system that repeatedly ignores their needs and priorities. The principle of fairness is not just an ethical consideration; it is a practical necessity for sustaining peace.

Multilateralism on the line at COP30

This is why the principle of multilateralism – the foundation of the post-war global order – must be defended.

Small nations matter. The principle that Fiji and Kiribati have the same vote as the United States or Russia in climate negotiations is not a flaw – it is a cornerstone of global peace. When powerful countries sideline ‘one country, one vote’ multilateralism – as many in today’s geopolitical wrangling are doing – they signal that might makes right, an approach that make conflict more, not less, likely.

In short, the retreat from strong, multilateral climate action is not just an environmental failure – it is a security risk. Leaders who defund climate finance in favour of military spending are not making the world safer; they are creating the conditions for future conflicts.

COP30 chief calls for global unity on climate action as cooperation falters

At COP30 in Brazil, the future of global cooperation on climate change – indeed of the UN process itself – is on the line. Leaders of goodwill across the world must recognise that climate justice, whether on mitigation, adaptation, or loss and damage, is an essential ingredient for a peaceful world. Pandering to strong-man egos will only deepen injustice and increase global instability.

For the sake of future generations, this one’s leaders must stand up for justice. They must be willing to see beyond today’s headlines and secure a future built on the common good. 2025 might feel like the start of a road toward global conflict and climate breakdown, but it doesn’t need to be.

With political will, COP30 can be a bounce-back moment when the norms and values necessary for peace are reinforced. The imperative of bequeathing a healthy and peaceful planet to those who come after us demands that it be so.

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Climate justice is vital for global security