Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Elections in India and Mexico
CLIMATE PRESIDENTA: Following weeks of deadly heat in the country, Mexico elected former climate scientist Claudia Sheinbaum as its first female president after a “landslide victory in Sunday’s election”, Axios reported. Sheinbaum was co-author of the industry chapter for the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report that jointly won the Nobel peace prize, noted a profile by Mexican newspaper El Universal.
‘GREEN PROMISES’: However, Mexican climate scientists and political analysts questioned “whether she will deliver on her green promises”, Climate Home News reported. Boston Globe columnist Marcela García also doubted Sheinbaum’s “progressive credentials”, while Bloomberg columnist Juan Pablo Spinetto noted her support of the populist politics and pro-oil policies of her “mentor”, outgoing president Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
NO MODI MAJORITY: In India’s elections, meanwhile, prime minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) suffered the “unexpected blow” of losing its parliamentary majority, the Guardian reported. Modi will continue for a third term, but “[his government] will face major challenges fueled by climate change”, the New York Times said.
HEAT STRESS: At least 85 people died of heat stress in northern India last week, the Hindustan Times reported. Six weeks of voting “amid unusually high temperatures…may have depressed turnout” in the election, NBC News reported, but: “[n]either the BJP nor the opposition said much about climate change during the campaign”.
Around the world
- MONEY TALKS: UN climate chief Simon Stiell opened intersessional talks in Bonn, Germany, by calling for “serious progress” on a new finance target, Climate Home News reported. Carbon Brief analysis revealed record UK climate finance spending.
- BROKEN RECORD: May 2024 was the world’s 12th consecutive warmest month on record, Agencia EFE reported, citing the Copernicus Climate Change Service.
- WINDFALL TAX: UN secretary general António Guterres has backed a windfall tax on fossil-fuel firms, which he called the “godfathers of climate chaos”, the Associated Press reported. BBC News said he also called for a fossil-fuel advertising ban.
- GERMAN GAP: An expert council on climate issues said Germany is likely to miss its 2030 targets, Der Spiegel reported, adding that this contradicted ministers. At least six people have died in floods in southern Germany, said Tagesschau.
- OFFSETS PLEASE: A group of 10 West African nations are supporting carbon credit use, Reuters reported. In a letter to the Science-Based Targets initiative they called for offsets to be included in corporate net-zero guidance, the newswire said.
- EU ELECTIONS: European Parliament elections are underway, with exit polls from the Netherlands showing a Labour-Green alliance narrowly beating Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders’ party, said Politico.
36.8 billion
Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and cement in 2023, a record, according to a new Carbon Brief guest post on the world’s key climate indicators.
5
Years before the carbon budget for a 50% chance of staying below 1.5C is used up, according to the study described by the guest post, which updates IPCC figures.
1.43
Global warming in 2023, in degrees C above pre-industrial levels, also a record.
100%
Share of warming in the decade 2014-2023 caused by humans, according to the guest post.
Latest climate research
- Research in Nature Sustainability looked at how to incorporate environmental concerns when planning for more hydropower in Africa.
- Catastrophic recent floods in Brazil were made twice as likely by climate change, according to a rapid attribution study by World Weather Attribution.
- A study published in Environmental Research Letters and covered by Carbon Brief showed better refrigeration could cut almost 2bn tonnes of greenhouse gases a year.
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
The world will invest $2tn in clean energy this year, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). This is roughly double the amount being put towards fossil fuels, the agency said. Carbon Brief analysis of the figures showed North America is the top spender on fossil fuels, while China is putting 3.7 times more money into clean energy than it is investing in fossil fuels. The world is still off track for the goal of tripling renewables by 2030, said another new IEA report covered by the Guardian.
Spotlight
Rapid climate action ‘makes energy cheaper, not more costly’
This week, Carbon Brief looks at the costs and benefits of cutting emissions to net-zero in order to tackle climate change, factchecking claims made during the UK election campaign.
Ahead of the 4 July election, UK politicians are talking about climate action in very different ways. As ever, a key battleground is the costs and benefits of cutting emissions.
The climate-sceptic Reform party has mislead by omission, highlighting a large and scary-sounding figure for the cost of net-zero, without mentioning the cost of the alternative.
Its manifesto says the cost of net-zero is “estimated by the National Grid and others at some £2tn or more” – but leaves out the part about this being cheaper than not meeting the target.
Conservative prime minister Rishi Sunak has portrayed net-zero as a reluctant sacrifice. In this week’s leaders’ debate on ITV, he said: “Of course we are going to tackle climate change and get to net-zero…[But I am] not going to impose thousands of pounds of costs [on voters].”
This, too, is only a partial accounting, focusing on the investments needed to decarbonise.
In contrast, opposition Labour leader Keir Starmer said less on the investment required, but touted the economic opportunity and potential to lower bills. He told the leaders’ debate: “[The transition] is a huge opportunity. If we go to renewables that means cheaper bills.”
A much-discussed report by consultancy Aurora appeared to offer more support to Sunak than to Starmer, noting higher investment needs to decarbonise electricity more quickly.
Yet Aurora later tweeted further details from its modelling, showing that a faster transition to net-zero power would result in lower bills – despite larger investment costs.
The costs and benefits of net-zero
At a global level, reaching net-zero by 2050 would “make energy cheaper, not more costly”, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
It compared global energy costs on the world’s current path – heading for 2.4C of warming – with the accelerated action needed to reach net-zero by 2050 and stay below 1.5C.
It totted up investment needs, financing costs, the cost of fuel – including fossil fuel “rents”, such as oil company profits – as well as subsidies and distributional impacts.
Strikingly, the IEA concluded that accelerating climate action to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 would make the global energy system “more affordable and fairer”.
According to the report, this is because higher investment costs would be more than offset by lower fuel bills, greater efficiency and reduced fossil fuel rents. It concluded:
“Energy transitions could lead to major reductions in household energy bills and accelerate progress towards universal energy access. But managing upfront costs for poorer and rural households – as well as ongoing costs – remains a key public policy challenge.”
If those challenges can be overcome, in other words, then it would be cheaper to avoid dangerous climate change than to continue on our current path.
As well as being cheaper on its own terms, this would also limit the negative economic impacts of warming. As Green MP Caroline Lucas tweeted during the leaders’ debate, what is the cost of not decarbonising?
Watch, read, listen
IPCC CHAIR: In an interview with African Arguments, IPCC chair Prof Jim Skea talked about developing country representation, model reliance on CO2 removal and more.
SECRET SPHERE: Amid doubts over European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s climate commitment if she wins a second term, Politico’s Karl Mathiesen recounted her “secret climate crusade” to get her Green Deal “past sceptical colleagues”.
GAZA HEATWAVE: Climate Home News reported on the unequal effects of a recent heatwave on communities in Gaza and nearby Tel Aviv.
Coming up
- 13 June: Close of the Bonn UN climate change conference, Germany
- 9 June: Conclusion of European Parliament elections
- 13-15 June: G7 summit, Borgo Egnazia, Italy
Pick of the jobs
- Climate Analytics, senior climate policy analyst | Salary: Unknown. Location: Berlin
- UK Climate Change Committee, analyst – just transition | Salary: £35,985-38,562. Location: London
- Oil Change International, senior strategist – global policy | Salary: $75,000-85,000. Location: Flexible
- The Royal Society, policy adviser – climate change | Salary: £42,000. Location: London
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
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The post DeBriefed 7 June 2024: Sheinbaum and Modi elected; Hottest May; Factchecking net-zero costs appeared first on Carbon Brief.
DeBriefed 7 June 2024: Sheinbaum and Modi elected; Hottest May; Factchecking net-zero costs
But a $345 million U.S. verdict against the environmental group hangs over the case.
A lawsuit filed by Greenpeace International against the U.S.-based fossil fuel company Energy Transfer in the Netherlands is moving forward after a Dutch court recently ruled in favor of the environmental organization in rejecting the company’s bid to toss out the case.
Greenpeace’s Dutch Anti-SLAPP Case Against Oil Pipeline Giant Advances
Go behind the scenes with executive editor Vernon Loeb and oceans correspondent Teresa Tomassoni as they discuss the search for heat-resilient coral reefs that are somehow defying the odds to survive a warming planet.
The world has already lost more than half of its coral reefs, and most of what remains is at risk of disappearing in the next 25 years.
Climate Change
DeBriefed 19 June 2026: Bonn talks end in ‘gridlock’ | Energy’s ‘new era’ | Oceans in climate negotiations
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Bonn talks close
‘SIDE-STEPPING AND STALLING’: UN climate talks in Bonn have ended in “gridlock”, according to Climate Home News. The outlet reported on the failure to balance developing countries’ need for climate-adaptation finance with “richer nations’ desire to move forward” on emissions cuts. It added that both topics were subject to “rule 16”, meaning no agreement could be reached and work will be pushed to the COP31 summit in Turkey. Inside Climate News quoted UN climate executive secretary Simon Stiell, who said the talks had seen “side-stepping and stalling”.
JUST TRANSITION: One “glimmer of hope” came from negotiations on achieving a “just transition”, reported Euronews. The news outlet said negotiators “made headway on operationalising the Belém-Antalya mechanism”, intended to support people in the shift to a low-carbon economy. However, Politico concluded that much of the focus in Bonn had “shift[ed] to efforts outside diplomatic talks – raising questions about the future of global climate negotiations”.
‘ATTACKING SCIENCE’: Agence France-Presse reported on the EU, Switzerland and “dozens of developing nations” warning of “attacks on science” by a “small group of fossil-fuels interests” in Bonn. Table Briefings explained that “the 1.5C target is increasingly being challenged” and the role of the UN climate-science panel – the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – in an upcoming assessment of global climate progress “remains controversial”. See Carbon Brief’s full write-up of the talks for more detail.
US-Iran deal
PRICE DROP: The US and Iran announced that they have reached an interim agreement to halt the war and reopen the strait of Hormuz, reported Bloomberg. Oil prices have fallen, as the “long-awaited deal” began the process of “eas[ing]” the global energy crisis triggered by the conflict, according to the New York Times. The Associated Press noted that high fuel prices will “likely outlast the Iran war”.
‘OIL GLUT’: The Financial Times reported that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast a “glut of oil” emerging next year, if the peace deal holds. The IEA said this would allow countries to build new strategic reserves, as they “review their energy strategies and policies in response to the crisis”, according to Reuters.
‘NEW ERA’: Agence France-Presse reported that oil and gas companies have “few illusions about a return to normal for the Gulf energy industry after more than three months of blockage”. One analyst told the newswire that the war “showed the oil and gas industry that Hormuz risk is no longer just a geopolitical headline”.
Around the world
- OCEAN MONITOR: The Trump administration is “abandoning its plan” to dismantle a $368m ocean monitoring system key for tracking climate change after a “bipartisan backlash on Capitol Hill”, reported the New York Times.
- CORAL HAVEN: The New York Times covered preliminary research, presented at the Our Ocean Conference in Kenya, suggesting there could be three times as many “coral refugia” – where corals are relatively safe from climate change – than previously thought.
- BAD CREDIT: Down to Earth reported that the first carbon credits issued under the Paris Agreement’s new Article 6.4 mechanism are “facing scrutiny over alleged links to institutions controlled by Myanmar’s military junta”.
- OIL BACKTRACK: Reuters reported that oil-and-gas company Equinor has dropped a renewable-energy target and scaled back clean investments, while another Reuters story noted that Shell is selling off its offshore wind assets.
1.1 billion
The number of children facing “at least three overlapping climate hazards”, according to a new Unicef report covered by Agence France-Presse.
Latest climate research
- Including the “permafrost carbon-climate feedback” in climate models increases the chance of exceeding “tipping elements” – such as the Greenland ice sheets, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or Amazon rainforest – by up to 50% | Environmental Research Letters
- The intensity of influenza outbreaks could decline in temperate regions, but increase in tropical areas over the next century, as the climate warms | PNAS Nexus
- European snow cover has declined by 20% for December and January since the start of the industrial era, revealing an “unprecedented ongoing shrinkage of European winters” | Communications Earth & Environment
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
The more than 2m battery electric vehicles (BEVs), 1m “plug-in” hybrids (PHEVs) and 100,000 electric vans on UK roads are already saving drivers a total of around £3bn a year, according to new Carbon Brief analysis. This amounts to savings of more than £1,100 a year in fuel costs for each BEV driver in the UK. The analysis comes amid reports in UK media this week that the government is considering “watering down” its EV sales targets.
Spotlight
Oceans rising at UN climate talks
The state of the world’s oceans is inextricably linked to the changing climate – and many delegates at UN climate talks want to see more focus on this issue, reports Carbon Brief.
Oceans are often described as the world’s “greatest ally” against climate change – absorbing 30% of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and most of the heat generated by those emissions.
They are also the site of important climate solutions, such as huge offshore windfarms and the shipping industry’s transition to cleaner fuels.
At the same time, the oceans themselves present a growing danger to coastal communities and sea life due to sea level rise, marine heatwaves and ocean acidification.
These diverse issues have led to growing calls within the UN climate process for more focus on oceans. During climate negotiations this week in Bonn – known as SB64 – nations and civil society had a chance to air these views during an “ocean and climate change dialogue”.
‘Elevate action’
Oceans first entered UN climate outcomes in 2019, when the final COP25 negotiated text requested a new “dialogue” on “the ocean and climate change to consider how to strengthen mitigation and adaptation action”.
The following years saw this dialogue established as an annual event. However, the political weight of these discussions has been limited.
COP31 is being co-led by Turkey and Australia, but with Pacific islands playing a supporting role. These small islands sometimes self-identify as “large ocean states”, stressing the ocean’s centrality in their societies.
In Bonn, figures from across the presidency threw their weight behind this issue. Chris Bowen, an Australian minister and incoming COP31 “president of negotiations”, told attendees:
“Australia, Turkey and the Pacific see an important opportunity to elevate ocean-based climate action.”
Strategies and finance
The two-day dialogue in Bonn involved a series of panels, statements and breakout groups.
One of the main topics was how oceans are integrated into national climate plans under the Paris Agreement, known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs).
Three-quarters of the latest round of NDCs mention oceans, with conservation of “blue carbon” ecosystems the most frequently described action. (Landscapes such as mangroves can both absorb CO2 and protect coastal areas.)
Delegates also discussed alignment with the UN biodiversity process, as well as ocean finance, which currently makes up less than 1% of all climate finance.
(As discussions were taking place in Bonn, country officials also gathered in Mombasa, Kenya for the 11th Our Ocean Conference. Carbon Brief’s associate editor Giuliana Viglione attended the conference and will publish a full summary shortly.)
Developing countries were clear that many of the ocean-related actions in their NDCs would depend on receiving more financial support.
‘Political momentum’
With the backing of the COP31 presidency, delegates were hopeful about where this year’s dialogue could lead.
Charles Hamilton, an advisor for the Bahamas who spoke for the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in the dialogue, told Carbon Brief that island representatives “are not traveling thousands of miles to just talk and pat ourselves on the back”. He added:
“A dialogue that just remains a dialogue is just more talk – no action.”
Given that, he said “discussions in the dialogue must move into COP decisions and the decisions must be actioned”, noting the importance of finance.
Marina Corrêa, oceans lead at WWF-Brazil, pointed to an upcoming UN climate change Standing Committee on Finance forum as a space to ramp up pressure on ocean finance.
More broadly, she wanted to see the presidencies translate their support into a “leader-level ocean initiative” that could “mainstream” oceans across negotiations.
“We have a really interesting opportunity, in terms of political momentum,” Corrêa told Carbon Brief.
Watch, read, listen
‘HOTTER THAN HELL’: An episode of the BBC’s Rare Earth podcast titled “hotter than hell” considered the issue of extreme heat, with input from experts and “people facing up to the hottest temperatures on the planet”.
NOT BROKEN?: John Drake, a professor of ecology at the University of Georgia, wrote an essay for Aeon – also re-published as a Guardian “long read” – questioning the framing of ecosystems and climate systems “breaking down”.
ON COURSE: On his Volts podcast, US climate journalist David Roberts interviewed UK climate minister Katie White, quizzing her about whether the UK will “stay the course with its climate plans”.
Coming up
- 20-28 June: London climate action week
- 21 June: Colombia presidential runoff
- 24 June: UK Climate Change Committee progress in reducing emissions 2026 report to parliament
Pick of the jobs
- Mongabay, managing editor – Africa | Salary: Unknown. Location: Global
- Contexte, environment reporter – Brussels | Salary: €45,000-€60,000. Location: Brussels
- Climate 200, communications director | Salary: Unknown. Location: Australia
- Energy Tracker Asia, energy transition correspondent | Salary: $3,000-$4,000 per month. Location: South-east Asia (remote)
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 19 June 2026: Bonn talks end in ‘gridlock’ | Energy’s ‘new era’ | Oceans in climate negotiations appeared first on Carbon Brief.
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