根据全球能源监测组织（GEM）的最新年度报告，2023年中国煤电建设活动占全球新建煤电活动的95%。
GEM的全球煤电行业年度报告称，中国有70吉瓦（GW）的煤电装机容量破土动工，相较2019年增长了四倍。
相比之下，世界其他地区新开工煤电装机容量不足4吉瓦，是2014年以来的最低水平。
除中国外，只有32个国家有处于拟建阶段的新建煤电项目，只有七个国家有在建电厂。
虽然2023年全球煤电装机容量（包括总装机容量和中国以外地区的装机容量）有所增长，但GEM表示，这很可能只是“昙花一现”，随着未来几年美国和欧洲加速煤炭退役，这一增长将会被抵消。
该报告的其他主要发现包括：全球燃煤电厂——中国以外地区——建设连续第二年下降。然而，全球煤电厂的退役率也处于2011年以来的最低水平。
中国的“关键时刻”
GEM表示，2023年中国有47.4吉瓦的煤电装机容量投产。这一增量占全球在运煤电装机容量增长的三分之二，全球装机容量整体增长了2%，达到2130吉瓦。
2023年，中国有70.2吉瓦的新建项目开工，是世界其他国家，合计3.7吉瓦，的19倍。如下图所示，中国的发展轨迹（红线）与世界其他地区（橙色线）存在显著差异。
中国的新开工装机容量几乎是2019年的四倍，彼时中国的新建燃煤电厂开工量创下了九年来的新低。
这是中国每年开工建设的新燃煤电厂装机容量连续第四年增长。GEM指出，这与中国在2021年提出的“严控”新增煤电产能的承诺不符。
2022年初，中国国家能源局的《“十四五”现代能源体系规划》指出，到2025年将淘汰30吉瓦的煤电产能。
然而，GEM指出，如果算上发电装机容量至少达到30兆瓦（megawatts）的大型煤电机组，过去三年中关停的电厂不到9吉瓦，而且几乎没有其他电厂有退役计划。
GEM补充说，如果中国要实现30吉瓦的退役目标，“就必须立即采取行动”。
能源与清洁空气研究中心（CREA）中国分析师秦琦在一份声明中说：“最近中国煤电开发的激增与全球趋势形成了鲜明对比，使中国2025年的气候目标面临风险。在此关键时刻，中国必须对煤电项目实施更严格的控制，并加快向可再生能源转型，以重新履行其气候承诺。”
根据GEM的报告，中国、印度、孟加拉国、津巴布韦、印度尼西亚、哈萨克斯坦、老挝、土耳其、俄罗斯、巴基斯坦和越南共占全球拟建容量的95%。
该组织发现，剩下的5%分布在21个国家。报告补充称，其中11个国家仅有一个拟建项目，有望实现“无新煤电”这一退煤里程碑。
GEM追踪器显示，2023年，位于中国之外、全新规划的煤电项目装机容量达到20.9吉瓦。其中，印度新规划煤电装机容量达到11.4吉瓦，超过了2016年以来的任何一年。GEM解释说，这在一定程度上是由于该国几个停滞项目的重新启用。
哈萨克斯坦也有4.6吉瓦的新规划项目，印度尼西亚则有2.5吉瓦。另外还有4.1吉瓦之前被暂停或取消、但在去年被重新“规划”的项目。
另有几个国家——俄罗斯、菲律宾、博茨瓦纳和尼日利亚——也在2023年有项目重新规划和开工。
退役速度缓慢
GEM发现，2023年全球共有69.5吉瓦的煤电投产，同时有21.1吉瓦的煤电退役。这使得全球煤电在运装机容量的净增长达到自2016年以来的最高水平，猛增了48.4吉瓦。
此外，印度尼西亚（5.9吉瓦）、印度（5.5吉瓦）、越南（2.6吉瓦）、日本（2.5吉瓦）、孟加拉国（1.9吉瓦）、巴基斯坦（1.7吉瓦）、韩国（1吉瓦）、希腊（0.7吉瓦）和津巴布韦（0.3吉瓦）也有新增装机容量投产。
该组织发现，在2023年间，中国境外总共有22.1吉瓦装机容量投产，17.4吉瓦退役。这使得在中国以外运营的全球煤电机组净增加了4.7吉瓦。2023年，全球煤电装机容量达到2130吉瓦，比上年增长2%。
GEM表示，美国贡献了近一半的退役煤电机组装机容量，2023年有9.7吉瓦被关闭。不过，与2022年的14.7吉瓦和2015年的21.7吉瓦的峰值相比，退役量有所下降。
在其他地区，欧盟和英国的煤电机组退役量接近四分之一，其中英国有3.1吉瓦退役，意大利有0.6吉瓦退役，波兰有0.5吉瓦退役。目前，英国只有一家燃煤电厂在运营，这个位于索尔河畔拉特克利夫（Ratcliffe-on-Soar）的电厂计划于2024年9月关闭。
总体而言，全球退役的煤电装机容量处于2011年以来的最低水平，如下图所示。
GEM指出，中国以外地区新开工建设的煤电项目规模连续第二年下降，创下（该机构）自2015年收集数据以来的最低水平。
2023年，中国以外地区新开工建设的项目不到4吉瓦，远低于2015年至2022年16吉瓦的平均水平。仅有七个国家有新项目破土动工，其中印度、老挝、尼日利亚、巴基斯坦和俄罗斯各有一座电厂，印度尼西亚有三座电厂。
GEM表示，自2016年以来，拉丁美洲没有任何燃煤电厂开工建设，经济合作与发展组织（OECD）、欧洲或中东国家自2019年以来也没有任何燃煤电厂破土动工。
报告称，尼日利亚乌格博巴（Ugboba）发电站是自2019年以来非洲已知的首个煤电建设项目，该发电站位于三角洲州阿尼奥查北地区的伊多乌法洛拉煤矿（Idowu Falola Coal Mines）矿口。
七国集团（G7）目前占全球在运煤电装机容量的15%（310吉瓦），低于2015年的32%（443吉瓦）。该集团成员国已没有任何在建煤电项目。不过，日本和美国仍分别有一个和两个新煤电项目提案。
美国的两个新煤电项目提案，即宾夕法尼亚州0.4吉瓦的CONSOL项目和阿拉斯加州新宣布的0.4吉瓦的苏西特纳（Susitna）电站，预计都将采用碳捕集与封存技术（CCS）。
GEM表示，这些技术“具有很强的不确定性。相比退煤的迫切需求，它们是一个昂贵的转移注意力的方式”。
二十国集团（G20）拥有全球92%的在运煤电装机容量（1968吉瓦），其拟建的煤电装机容量总和占全球总量的88%（336吉瓦）。
现任G20轮值主席国巴西的拟建装机容量在2023年下降，但仍有两个正在推进的项目，它们也是拉丁美洲最后的拟建煤电项目。
“无新煤电”国家
GEM追踪器显示，总体而言，2023年的全球煤电装机容量达到了历史新高。
如下图所示，由于2023年退役的煤电装机容量为十多年来最低，中国以外的在运煤电装机容量自2019年以来首次出现增长。
自2015年以来，全球在运的煤电装机容量增长了11%。当年，《巴黎协定》使各国政府同意将全球平均温度保持在工业化前水平以上低于2℃之内，并将气温上升限制在工业化前水平以上1.5°C以内。
中国以外，正在建设的煤电装机总量达到113吉瓦。GEM表示，尽管这一数字仅比上一年的110吉瓦略有上升，但仍凸显出煤炭行业不符合国际能源署（IEA）对如何把气候控制在1.5°C以内情景的预测。
在IEA做出的所有符合国际气候目标的情景中，全球炭排放量都应在迅速下降。
GEM报告称，2023年全球拟建装机容量增长了6%，“这明确了呼吁停止规划和开工建设煤电厂的重要性”。
报告还补充称，目前在运的煤电装机容量中，只有15%（317吉瓦）承诺将按照《巴黎协定》的目标退役。
GEM指出，根据国际能源署提出的1.5°C路径，如果要在2040年前淘汰未减排的燃煤发电量，就需要在未来17年内平均每年淘汰126吉瓦的煤电装机容量。这相当于每周淘汰两座煤电厂。
GEM表示，如果把拟建和在建的578吉瓦项目计算在内，则需要更大幅度的削减。
有12个新国家加入了“助力淘汰煤炭联盟”（Powering Past coal Alliance），承诺在2023年不再开发新的煤电项目。GEM指出，总共有101个国家或已正式作出了“无新煤电”的承诺，或已在过去十年里放弃了任何新煤电建造。
GEM发现，自2015年以来，全球拟建装机容量减少了68%。目前，除中国外，新开工项目处于该数据开始收集以来的最低水平。
GEM的报告认为，新煤电建设提议的“最后阵地”是利用碳捕集与封存技术、以及将煤电用于工业活动。（碳捕集与封存技术，CCS，可减少燃煤产生的温室气体进入大气）
例如，津巴布韦在2023年规划了1.9吉瓦的新建煤电装机容量，其包括两个项目“声望”（Prestige）发电站和格韦鲁（Gweru）发电站，旨在为铬冶炼厂提供电力。
除中国和印度外，津巴布韦是去年新增总规划装机容量的六个国家之一，其他国家包括哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、俄罗斯、美国和菲律宾。
在COP28气候峰会上，130国签署了《全球可再生能源和能源效率承诺》，表示有意在2030年前逐步淘汰未减排的煤电，并停止投资未减排的新建燃煤电厂。
此外，COP28的最终“全球盘点”（Global Stocktake）协议重申了COP26大会关于逐步减少未减排的煤电的承诺，但仍未定义“未减排”（Unabated）的含义。此外，早期草案中关于停止核准新煤电项目的措辞在最终文本中被省略。
GEM报告指出：“煤电正处于悬崖边缘，面临着政治和民间的反对，经济上也越来越缺乏竞争力。”
GEM煤炭项目主任弗洛拉·尚普努瓦（Flora Champenois）在一份声明中说：“今年煤炭的变化趋势反常，因为所有迹象都表明，煤炭将从加速扩张的趋势中逆转。但是，那些要淘汰燃煤电厂的国家需要加快步伐，而那些计划新建燃煤电厂的国家必须确保这些电厂永远不会建成。否则，我们就别想实现《巴黎协定》的目标，也别想享有迅速过渡到清洁能源所带来的好处。”
The post 报告： 2023年中国新建煤电项目占全球的95% appeared first on Carbon Brief.
But a $345 million U.S. verdict against the environmental group hangs over the case.
A lawsuit filed by Greenpeace International against the U.S.-based fossil fuel company Energy Transfer in the Netherlands is moving forward after a Dutch court recently ruled in favor of the environmental organization in rejecting the company’s bid to toss out the case.
Greenpeace’s Dutch Anti-SLAPP Case Against Oil Pipeline Giant Advances
Go behind the scenes with executive editor Vernon Loeb and oceans correspondent Teresa Tomassoni as they discuss the search for heat-resilient coral reefs that are somehow defying the odds to survive a warming planet.
The world has already lost more than half of its coral reefs, and most of what remains is at risk of disappearing in the next 25 years.
Climate Change
DeBriefed 19 June 2026: Bonn talks end in ‘gridlock’ | Energy’s ‘new era’ | Oceans in climate negotiations
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Bonn talks close
‘SIDE-STEPPING AND STALLING’: UN climate talks in Bonn have ended in “gridlock”, according to Climate Home News. The outlet reported on the failure to balance developing countries’ need for climate-adaptation finance with “richer nations’ desire to move forward” on emissions cuts. It added that both topics were subject to “rule 16”, meaning no agreement could be reached and work will be pushed to the COP31 summit in Turkey. Inside Climate News quoted UN climate executive secretary Simon Stiell, who said the talks had seen “side-stepping and stalling”.
JUST TRANSITION: One “glimmer of hope” came from negotiations on achieving a “just transition”, reported Euronews. The news outlet said negotiators “made headway on operationalising the Belém-Antalya mechanism”, intended to support people in the shift to a low-carbon economy. However, Politico concluded that much of the focus in Bonn had “shift[ed] to efforts outside diplomatic talks – raising questions about the future of global climate negotiations”.
‘ATTACKING SCIENCE’: Agence France-Presse reported on the EU, Switzerland and “dozens of developing nations” warning of “attacks on science” by a “small group of fossil-fuels interests” in Bonn. Table Briefings explained that “the 1.5C target is increasingly being challenged” and the role of the UN climate-science panel – the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – in an upcoming assessment of global climate progress “remains controversial”. See Carbon Brief’s full write-up of the talks for more detail.
US-Iran deal
PRICE DROP: The US and Iran announced that they have reached an interim agreement to halt the war and reopen the strait of Hormuz, reported Bloomberg. Oil prices have fallen, as the “long-awaited deal” began the process of “eas[ing]” the global energy crisis triggered by the conflict, according to the New York Times. The Associated Press noted that high fuel prices will “likely outlast the Iran war”.
‘OIL GLUT’: The Financial Times reported that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast a “glut of oil” emerging next year, if the peace deal holds. The IEA said this would allow countries to build new strategic reserves, as they “review their energy strategies and policies in response to the crisis”, according to Reuters.
‘NEW ERA’: Agence France-Presse reported that oil and gas companies have “few illusions about a return to normal for the Gulf energy industry after more than three months of blockage”. One analyst told the newswire that the war “showed the oil and gas industry that Hormuz risk is no longer just a geopolitical headline”.
Around the world
- OCEAN MONITOR: The Trump administration is “abandoning its plan” to dismantle a $368m ocean monitoring system key for tracking climate change after a “bipartisan backlash on Capitol Hill”, reported the New York Times.
- CORAL HAVEN: The New York Times covered preliminary research, presented at the Our Ocean Conference in Kenya, suggesting there could be three times as many “coral refugia” – where corals are relatively safe from climate change – than previously thought.
- BAD CREDIT: Down to Earth reported that the first carbon credits issued under the Paris Agreement’s new Article 6.4 mechanism are “facing scrutiny over alleged links to institutions controlled by Myanmar’s military junta”.
- OIL BACKTRACK: Reuters reported that oil-and-gas company Equinor has dropped a renewable-energy target and scaled back clean investments, while another Reuters story noted that Shell is selling off its offshore wind assets.
1.1 billion
The number of children facing “at least three overlapping climate hazards”, according to a new Unicef report covered by Agence France-Presse.
Latest climate research
- Including the “permafrost carbon-climate feedback” in climate models increases the chance of exceeding “tipping elements” – such as the Greenland ice sheets, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or Amazon rainforest – by up to 50% | Environmental Research Letters
- The intensity of influenza outbreaks could decline in temperate regions, but increase in tropical areas over the next century, as the climate warms | PNAS Nexus
- European snow cover has declined by 20% for December and January since the start of the industrial era, revealing an “unprecedented ongoing shrinkage of European winters” | Communications Earth & Environment
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
The more than 2m battery electric vehicles (BEVs), 1m “plug-in” hybrids (PHEVs) and 100,000 electric vans on UK roads are already saving drivers a total of around £3bn a year, according to new Carbon Brief analysis. This amounts to savings of more than £1,100 a year in fuel costs for each BEV driver in the UK. The analysis comes amid reports in UK media this week that the government is considering “watering down” its EV sales targets.
Spotlight
Oceans rising at UN climate talks
The state of the world’s oceans is inextricably linked to the changing climate – and many delegates at UN climate talks want to see more focus on this issue, reports Carbon Brief.
Oceans are often described as the world’s “greatest ally” against climate change – absorbing 30% of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and most of the heat generated by those emissions.
They are also the site of important climate solutions, such as huge offshore windfarms and the shipping industry’s transition to cleaner fuels.
At the same time, the oceans themselves present a growing danger to coastal communities and sea life due to sea level rise, marine heatwaves and ocean acidification.
These diverse issues have led to growing calls within the UN climate process for more focus on oceans. During climate negotiations this week in Bonn – known as SB64 – nations and civil society had a chance to air these views during an “ocean and climate change dialogue”.
‘Elevate action’
Oceans first entered UN climate outcomes in 2019, when the final COP25 negotiated text requested a new “dialogue” on “the ocean and climate change to consider how to strengthen mitigation and adaptation action”.
The following years saw this dialogue established as an annual event. However, the political weight of these discussions has been limited.
COP31 is being co-led by Turkey and Australia, but with Pacific islands playing a supporting role. These small islands sometimes self-identify as “large ocean states”, stressing the ocean’s centrality in their societies.
In Bonn, figures from across the presidency threw their weight behind this issue. Chris Bowen, an Australian minister and incoming COP31 “president of negotiations”, told attendees:
“Australia, Turkey and the Pacific see an important opportunity to elevate ocean-based climate action.”
Strategies and finance
The two-day dialogue in Bonn involved a series of panels, statements and breakout groups.
One of the main topics was how oceans are integrated into national climate plans under the Paris Agreement, known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs).
Three-quarters of the latest round of NDCs mention oceans, with conservation of “blue carbon” ecosystems the most frequently described action. (Landscapes such as mangroves can both absorb CO2 and protect coastal areas.)
Delegates also discussed alignment with the UN biodiversity process, as well as ocean finance, which currently makes up less than 1% of all climate finance.
(As discussions were taking place in Bonn, country officials also gathered in Mombasa, Kenya for the 11th Our Ocean Conference. Carbon Brief’s associate editor Giuliana Viglione attended the conference and will publish a full summary shortly.)
Developing countries were clear that many of the ocean-related actions in their NDCs would depend on receiving more financial support.
‘Political momentum’
With the backing of the COP31 presidency, delegates were hopeful about where this year’s dialogue could lead.
Charles Hamilton, an advisor for the Bahamas who spoke for the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in the dialogue, told Carbon Brief that island representatives “are not traveling thousands of miles to just talk and pat ourselves on the back”. He added:
“A dialogue that just remains a dialogue is just more talk – no action.”
Given that, he said “discussions in the dialogue must move into COP decisions and the decisions must be actioned”, noting the importance of finance.
Marina Corrêa, oceans lead at WWF-Brazil, pointed to an upcoming UN climate change Standing Committee on Finance forum as a space to ramp up pressure on ocean finance.
More broadly, she wanted to see the presidencies translate their support into a “leader-level ocean initiative” that could “mainstream” oceans across negotiations.
“We have a really interesting opportunity, in terms of political momentum,” Corrêa told Carbon Brief.
Watch, read, listen
‘HOTTER THAN HELL’: An episode of the BBC’s Rare Earth podcast titled “hotter than hell” considered the issue of extreme heat, with input from experts and “people facing up to the hottest temperatures on the planet”.
NOT BROKEN?: John Drake, a professor of ecology at the University of Georgia, wrote an essay for Aeon – also re-published as a Guardian “long read” – questioning the framing of ecosystems and climate systems “breaking down”.
ON COURSE: On his Volts podcast, US climate journalist David Roberts interviewed UK climate minister Katie White, quizzing her about whether the UK will “stay the course with its climate plans”.
Coming up
- 20-28 June: London climate action week
- 21 June: Colombia presidential runoff
- 24 June: UK Climate Change Committee progress in reducing emissions 2026 report to parliament
Pick of the jobs
- Mongabay, managing editor – Africa | Salary: Unknown. Location: Global
- Contexte, environment reporter – Brussels | Salary: €45,000-€60,000. Location: Brussels
- Climate 200, communications director | Salary: Unknown. Location: Australia
- Energy Tracker Asia, energy transition correspondent | Salary: $3,000-$4,000 per month. Location: South-east Asia (remote)
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 19 June 2026: Bonn talks end in ‘gridlock’ | Energy’s ‘new era’ | Oceans in climate negotiations appeared first on Carbon Brief.
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