After all these years and despite so many accomplishments, measures that save energy remain U.S. climate policy’s bastard child.
Even defenders of energy efficiency sell it short. The latest instance was last Friday’s NY Times column, Give Me Laundry Liberty or Give Me Death!, by the paper’s resident polemicist, the economist Paul Krugman.
Electricity Savings’ top role in reducing electric-sector emissions is especially critical because no other sector (transport, industry, etc.) cut emissions more than marginally.
Krugman rightly savaged Congressional Republicans for contesting U.S. Energy Department efficiency standards for washing machines and other major energy-consuming appliances. His column reminds us that today’s G.O.P. never passes up an opportunity to force fossil fuels on the American public.
As Krugman noted, Republicans’ depiction of Democrats as enemies of freedom is exactly backwards: “Regulations ensuring that the appliances on offer are reasonably efficient reduce people’s cognitive burden — you might even say they increase our freedom,” by unshackling consumers from the task of weeding out inefficient (and expensive-to-run) appliances from efficient ones.
But consider what Nobel economics laureate Krugman left out: The only U.S. sector that has cut carbon emissions by more than token amounts since 2005 is electricity, furnishing a whopping 92 percent of the overall drop in emissions in 2023 since 2005. (See bar graph further below.) And energy savings, measured as kilowatt-hours that didn’t need to be generated because electricity savings curbed demand, accounted for 40 percent of electricity-sector carbon reductions — besting the 36 percent from power generators’ shift from coal to less-carbon-intensive fossil gas, and far surpassing the combined 24% share from growth in wind and solar electricity. (See pie-chart above. Details follow at end of post.)
Why are electricity savings undervalued?
Since 2005, the U.S. economy has grown by 40 percent in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. Yet over the same 18 years, U.S. electricity generation barely budged, rising just 5 percent. That is an immense change from mid-(20th)-century, when electricity usage typically grew each year by 6 or 7 percent, practically doubling every decade. This wrenching apart of electricity growth from economic growth has enabled the increased penetration of fossil gas-fired electricity and the rapid increase in wind and solar electricity to bite deeply into coal-fired power generation rather than simply add to it.
Yet energy savings are downgraded in energy and climate discourse. It’s not hard to see why.
First, energy saving is invisible. There are no ribbon-cuttings for energy-efficient buildings or appliances, no medals for low-energy lifestyles. Super-efficient houses or office buildings occasionally are singled out for praise, but what’s the visual — a low-electricity or gas bill? Or, worse, Jimmy Carter’s White House cardigan, which 1970s media held up for ridicule?
Second, saving energy lacks powerful lobbies. There’s no energy-saving counterpart to the American Gas Association, the American Wind Energy Association, the Solar Energy Industry Association, the National Coal Association, and certainly not the American Petroleum Institute, which was represented at the Mar-a-Lago dinner last week at which ex-president Trump pressed the fossil fuel industry for a billion dollars in campaign contributions. Only the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy and the Natural Resources Defense Council persistently advocate for energy effiicency, and they do so as tech experts and champions of the greater good rather than as arm-twisting lobbyists, and certainly not as bundlers of campaign cash.
Lime-green bars show CO2 emissions from electricity generation. The sole other sector with substantially lower 2023 emissions, “Other” Petroleum, shown in yellow, shrank due to natural gas’s increasing industrial-market share.
Energy efficiency and savings also suffer from a measurement problem. Implicit in measuring their climate contribution is a counterfactual: what would energy requirements and emissions have been without the energy savings?
For this post as well as predecessor posts in 2016 and 2020 I used as a baseline U.S. electricity generation if the 1975-2005 ratio between electricity growth and GDP growth had persisted. I think that was reasonable, but who’s to say? The avoided kWh’s I computed for the pie chart depend on a measuring convention that is subject to argument.
(Note that “offshoring” — the compositional shift of the U.S. economy toward services and away from manufacturing, with imports from China and other Asian countries furnishing the lost production — has also contributed to reducing the link between electricity and domestic economic activity; however, its numerical impact only accounts for a fraction of the flattening of U.S. electricity consumption over the paste two decades.)
Energy Efficiency’s Respect Deficit Is Consequential
Undervaluing energy efficiency means that energy-saving policy measures get short-changed. Efficiency standards for appliances, vehicles and buildings are insufficiently supported, enacted and enforced, leaving them vulnerable to being watered down or blocked altogether.
That’s the obvious part. More consequential is the cultural and political fallout. The short shrift accorded energy savings contributes to downplaying the demand side of energy and climate. This in turn has contributed to the unfortunate narrowcasting of climate campaigns to campaigns to block supply expansions. Measures that would curb consumption get disregarded, even though they are arguably more enduring and effective in curbing climate-damaging emissions than campaigns to halt drilling or pipelines, which largely relocate supply expansions elsewhere.
A major casualty of this narrowcasting is sidelining of carbon pricing as a serious policy contender. That’s not to say that the U.S. would necessarily have robust carbon pricing if energy savings were given their due. Rather, the marginalizing of energy savings and of carbon pricing are mutually reinforcing.
Part of the power of carbon taxing is that it operates on both the demand and supply sides of the fossil-fuel and emissions equation. (Another part is that carbon pricing complements virtually every other emissions-reducing policy or program.) Downgrading the demand aspect of our energy and climate miasma does a disservice to carbon pricing — and our climate.
Calculation Details
Calculations for this post were made in CTC’s carbon-tax model spreadsheet (2.2 MB downloadable Excel file). See Clean Electricity tab and Graphs tab. Pie-chart shares are derived by comparing 2023 and 2005 generation for solar (including distributed solar), wind and fossil gas and applying industry-average CO2 emission factors for coal and gas. Electricity-savings slice was computed by subtracting actual 2023 U.S. electricity generation from hypothetical 2023 generation if the average 1975-2005 ratio between electricity growth and GDP growth had continued through 2023, and then ascribing a per-kWh CO2 emission factor calculated as the mean of gas and coal CO2/kWh.
In crediting electricity with 92% of all 2005-2023 U.S. CO2 reductions (from fossil-fuel burning), I divided electricity-sector reductions of 983 million metric tons (“tonnes”) of CO2 by the total reduction of 1,064 million tonnes. However, the denominator is deflated by including “negative reductions” from passenger vehicles (14 million tonnes) and gas for industry (206). Even removing those sectors from the denominator, electricity accounted for 77% of total gross reductions (983 divided by 1,284). Note that these figures are shown in the Outcomes tab of CTC’s carbon-tax model.
Carbon Footprint
Why a forest with more species stores more carbon
A forest is not just trees. The number of species it holds, from canopy giants to understorey shrubs to soil fungi, directly determines how much carbon it can absorb, and, more importantly, how much it can keep over time. Buyers of carbon credits increasingly ask a reasonable question: Is the carbon in this project long-lasting? The science of biodiversity has a clear answer.
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Carbon Footprint
OpenAI Hits Pause on $40B UK AI Project: Energy Costs Shake Data Center Economics
ChatGPT developer OpenAI has paused its flagship UK data center project, known as “Stargate UK,” citing high energy costs and regulatory uncertainty. The project was part of a broader £31 billion ($40+ billion) investment plan aimed at expanding artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure in the country.
The initiative was designed to deploy up to 8,000 GPUs initially, with plans to scale to 31,000 GPUs over time. It was aimed to boost the UK’s “sovereign compute” capacity. This means building local infrastructure to support AI development and reduce reliance on foreign systems.
However, the company has now paused development. An OpenAI spokesperson stated that they:
“…support the government’s ambition to be an AI leader. AI compute is foundational to that goal – we continue to explore Stargate UK and will move forward when the right conditions such as regulation and the cost of energy enable long-term infrastructure investment.”
Energy Costs Are Now a Core Constraint
The main issue is energy. AI data centers require large amounts of electricity to run GPUs and cooling systems.
In the UK, industrial electricity prices are among the highest in developed markets. Recent estimates show costs at around £168 per megawatt-hour, compared to £69 in France and £38 in Texas. This gap creates a major disadvantage for large-scale data center investments.
AI workloads are especially power-intensive. A single large data center can consume as much electricity as tens of thousands of homes. As AI adoption grows, this demand is rising quickly.
Globally, the International Energy Agency estimates that data centers could consume over 1,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity by 2030, up sharply from about 415 TWh in 2024. This growth is largely driven by AI.

The result is clear. Energy is no longer just a cost. It is a key factor in where AI infrastructure gets built.
Regulation Adds Another Layer of Risk
Energy is only part of the challenge. Regulation is also slowing investment. In the UK, uncertainty around AI rules, especially copyright laws for training data, has created hesitation among companies.
Earlier proposals to allow AI firms to use copyrighted content were withdrawn after backlash. This left companies without clear guidance on compliance.
For large infrastructure projects, this uncertainty increases risk. Data centers require billions in upfront investment. Companies need stable rules before committing capital.
Planning delays and grid connection timelines also add friction. These factors increase both cost and project timelines.
Together, energy costs and regulatory uncertainty create a difficult environment for hyperscale AI infrastructure.
OpenAI’s Global Infrastructure Expands, But More Selectively
Despite the pause, ChatGPT-maker is still expanding globally. The company is investing heavily in AI infrastructure through partnerships with Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Oracle. It is also linked to a much larger $500 billion “Stargate” initiative in the United States, focused on building next-generation AI data centers.
At the same time, the company faces rising costs. Reports suggest OpenAI could lose billions of dollars annually as it scales infrastructure to meet demand.
This reflects a broader industry shift. AI is becoming more like energy or telecom infrastructure. It requires large capital investment, long timelines, and stable operating conditions.
The pause also highlights a deeper issue. AI growth is increasing pressure on energy systems and the environment.
The Hidden Carbon Cost Behind Every AI Query
ChatGPT and similar tools rely on large data centers. These facilities already account for about 1% to 1.5% of global electricity use. Projections for their energy use vary widely due to various factors.
Each individual query may seem small. A typical ChatGPT request can use about 0.3 watt-hours of electricity, which is relatively low. However, usage at scale changes the picture.
ChatGPT now serves hundreds of millions of users. Even small energy use per query adds up quickly. Training models is even more energy-intensive. For example, training GPT-3 required about 1,287 megawatt-hours of electricity and produced roughly 550 metric tons of CO₂.

Newer models are even larger. Some estimates suggest training advanced models like GPT-4 could emit up to 15,000 metric tons of CO₂, depending on the energy source.
At the system level, the impact is growing fast. AI systems could generate between 32.6 and 79.7 million tons of CO₂ emissions in 2025 alone. By 2030, AI-driven data centers could add 24 to 44 million tons of CO₂ annually.

Looking further ahead, global generative AI emissions could reach up to 245 million tons per year by 2035 if growth continues. These numbers show a clear pattern. Efficiency is improving, but total demand is rising faster.
Big Tech Scrambles to Balance AI Growth and Emissions
OpenAI has not published a detailed standalone net-zero target. However, its operations rely heavily on partners such as Microsoft, which has committed to becoming carbon negative by 2030.
The company has acknowledged that energy use is a real concern. Leadership has pointed to the need for more renewable energy, including nuclear and clean power, to support AI growth.
Across the industry, companies are responding in several ways:
- Improving model efficiency to reduce energy per query
- Investing in renewable energy and long-term power contracts
- Exploring new cooling systems to reduce water and energy use
Efficiency gains are already visible. Some AI systems have reduced energy per query by more than 30 times within a year, showing how quickly technology can improve. Still, total emissions continue to rise because demand is scaling faster than efficiency gains.
The Global AI Infrastructure Race
The pause in the UK highlights a larger trend. AI infrastructure is becoming a global competition shaped by energy, policy, and cost.
Regions with lower energy prices and faster permitting processes have an advantage. The United States and parts of the Middle East are attracting large-scale AI investments due to cheaper power and supportive policies.
At the same time, governments are trying to attract these projects. The UK has pledged billions to support AI growth and improve compute capacity. But this case shows that policy ambition alone is not enough. Companies need reliable energy, clear rules, and predictable costs.
AI’s Next Phase Will Be Decided by Energy, Not Code
The decision by OpenAI does not signal a retreat from AI investment. Instead, it reflects a shift in priorities.
Companies are becoming more selective about where they build infrastructure. They are focusing on locations that offer the right mix of energy access, cost stability, and regulatory clarity.
The UK project may still move forward, but only if conditions improve. For now, the message is clear. The future of AI will not be shaped by technology alone. It will also depend on energy systems, policy frameworks, and long-term investment conditions.
The post OpenAI Hits Pause on $40B UK AI Project: Energy Costs Shake Data Center Economics appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
U.S. Uranium Mining Returns: UEC Launches First New Mine in a Decade
Uranium Energy Corporation (NYSE: UEC) has started production at its Burke Hollow project in South Texas. This is the first new uranium mine to open in the U.S. in over ten years.
The project started production in April 2026 after getting final regulatory approval. This marks a big step for domestic uranium supply. It’s also the world’s newest in-situ recovery (ISR) uranium mine, which shows a move toward less harmful extraction methods.
Burke Hollow was originally discovered in 2012 and spans roughly 20,000 acres, with only about half of the site explored so far. This suggests significant long-term expansion potential as additional wellfields are developed.
The mine’s output will go to UEC’s Hobson Central Processing Plant in Texas. This plant can produce up to 4 million pounds of uranium each year.
A Scalable ISR Platform Expands U.S. Uranium Capacity
The Burke Hollow launch transforms UEC into a multi-site uranium producer in the United States. The company runs two active ISR production platforms. The second one is at its Christensen Ranch facility in Wyoming; both are shown in the table from UEC.


This “hub-and-spoke” model allows uranium from multiple wellfields to be processed through centralized facilities, improving efficiency and scalability. UEC’s operations in Texas and Wyoming are now active. This gives them a licensed production capacity of about 12 million pounds per year across the U.S.
ISR mining plays a key role in this strategy. Unlike conventional mining, ISR involves circulating solutions underground to dissolve uranium and pump it to the surface. This reduces surface disturbance and can lower environmental impact compared to open-pit or underground mining.
Burke Hollow is the largest ISR uranium discovery in the U.S. in the last ten years. This boosts its long-term value as a domestic resource.
Unhedged Strategy Pays Off as Uranium Prices Rise
UEC’s production launch comes at a time of strong uranium market conditions. The company uses a fully unhedged strategy. This means it sells uranium at current market prices instead of securing long-term contracts.
This approach has recently delivered strong financial results. In early 2026, UEC sold 200,000 pounds of uranium for $101 each. This price was about 25% higher than average market rates. The sale brought in over $20 million in revenue and around $10 million in gross profit.
The strategy allows the company to benefit directly from rising uranium prices, which have been supported by:
- Growing global nuclear energy demand
- Supply constraints in key producing regions
- Increased long-term contracting by utilities
Unhedged exposure raises risk in downturns, but offers more upside in strong markets. UEC is currently taking advantage of this.
Nuclear Energy Growth Is Driving Demand for Uranium
The timing of Burke Hollow’s launch aligns with a broader global shift back toward nuclear energy. Governments are increasingly turning to nuclear power as a reliable, low-carbon energy source.

The International Atomic Energy Agency projects that global nuclear capacity could double by 2050, depending on policy and investment trends. This would require a significant increase in uranium supply.
In the United States, nuclear energy accounts for around 20% of electricity generation. It also produces zero carbon emissions during operations. This makes it a key component of many net-zero strategies.
There are several factors supporting renewed nuclear demand, including:
- Development of small modular reactors (SMRs)
- Extension of existing nuclear plant lifetimes
- Government funding to maintain nuclear capacity
- Rising electricity demand from data centers and electrification
As demand grows, securing a reliable uranium supply becomes increasingly important.

Reducing Import Risk: A Strategic Domestic Supply Push
The Burke Hollow project also addresses a major vulnerability in U.S. energy policy. The country currently imports about 95% of its uranium needs, leaving it exposed to global supply risks.
A large share of uranium production and enrichment capacity is concentrated in a few countries, including Russia and Kazakhstan. This concentration has raised concerns about supply disruptions and geopolitical risk.

By expanding domestic production, UEC is helping to reduce reliance on imports and strengthen the U.S. nuclear fuel supply chain.
The company’s broader strategy includes building a vertically integrated platform covering mining, processing, and, eventually, uranium conversion. This approach aligns with U.S. government efforts to rebuild domestic nuclear fuel capabilities.
Federal programs have allocated billions to boost uranium production and enrichment. This shows how important the sector is.
Two Hubs, One Strategy: Wyoming Supports the Texas Breakthrough
While Burke Hollow is the main focus, UEC’s Christensen Ranch operation in Wyoming remains an important part of its production base.
The Wyoming site has recently received approvals for expanded wellfield development, allowing it to increase output alongside the Texas operation.
Together, the two sites form the foundation of UEC’s dual-hub production model. However, it is the Texas project that marks the first new U.S. uranium mine in over a decade, making it the central milestone in the company’s growth strategy.
Investor Momentum Builds Around Uranium Revival
The restart of U.S. uranium production is drawing strong attention from investors and industry players. Uranium markets have tightened in recent years, driven by rising demand and limited new supply.
UEC’s production launch has already had a positive market impact. The company’s share price rose following the announcement, reflecting investor confidence in its growth strategy.

At the same time, utilities are increasing long-term contracting activity to secure fuel supply. This trend is expected to continue as new nuclear capacity comes online and existing plants extend operations.
Industry forecasts suggest that uranium demand will remain strong through the 2030s, supporting higher prices and increased investment in new production.
Lower Impact Mining, Higher ESG Expectations
The use of ISR mining at Burke Hollow reflects a broader shift toward more sustainable extraction methods. ISR typically reduces land disturbance and avoids large-scale excavation.
However, environmental management remains critical. Key issues include groundwater protection, chemical use, and long-term site restoration.
UEC has emphasized environmental controls and regulatory compliance in its operations. These efforts are important for maintaining social license and meeting ESG expectations.
From a climate perspective, uranium production plays an indirect but important role. Supporting nuclear energy, it helps enable low-carbon electricity generation and reduces reliance on fossil fuels.
The Bottom Line: A Defining Moment for U.S. Uranium Production
The launch of the Burke Hollow mine marks a major milestone for the U.S. uranium sector. It ends a decade-long gap in new mine development and signals renewed momentum in domestic production.
In the short term, it strengthens supply and supports rising uranium markets. In the long term, it highlights the growing role of nuclear energy in global decarbonization strategies.
UEC’s Burke Hollow shows that new uranium projects can advance in today’s market. There are still challenges, like scaling production and handling environmental risks, but progress is possible.
As demand for nuclear energy continues to grow, domestic projects like Burke Hollow will play a key role in shaping the future of energy security and low-carbon power.
The post U.S. Uranium Mining Returns: UEC Launches First New Mine in a Decade appeared first on Carbon Credits.
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