Dr. Ümit Şahin is senior scholar and head of the climate change program at the Istanbul Policy Center, Sabancı University, Turkey.

At the UN Climate Summit in New York, Turkey’s announcement of its new NDC drew less attention than China’s updated climate targets. That is hardly surprising – China’s emissions dominate global totals. But dismissing Turkey’s role would be a mistake.

As the world’s 15^th-largest emitter, with rising emissions and a fast-growing economy, Turkey is an important piece of the climate puzzle. It may not be China – but then again, neither is any other country.

At a moment when the US has stepped back from multilateralism, Europe is losing momentum, and India is doubling down on coal, middle powers like Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, Brazil, and Turkey will help determine whether the world meets its climate goals. That is why President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s September 24 announcement in New York deserves closer attention.

Turkey’s recent climate policy trajectory has been unusually dynamic. After years of debate over whether it should be treated as a developed or developing country under the UN climate regime, Turkey finally ratified the Paris Agreement in 2021, committing to net zero by 2053.

Since then, climate governance has expanded rapidly: the ministry was renamed the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change; a Climate Change Directorate was established; Turkey updated its initial NDC; a multi-stakeholder Climate Council was convened; and this year, Parliament passed the country’s first Climate Law. An emissions trading system is expected soon.

Meanwhile, Turkey is campaigning – alongside Australia – to host COP31 in 2026. Climate change is also moving up the domestic agenda, driven by more frequent floods, droughts, heatwaves, and wildfires. Surveys show that nearly 80 percent of Turkish citizens are concerned about climate change.

‘Business as usual’ baseline

Given this backdrop, one might have expected a stronger NDC. Instead, the targets presented fall short of genuine progress.

The full text has not yet been released, but the topline figure announced by Erdoğan is a 42 percent reduction from a reference scenario. The catch lies in the baseline. Without climate action, Turkey projects its emissions – 552 million tons in 2023 – to double in 12 years, reaching 1,109 million tons. The new target promises to cap that growth at 643 million tons by 2035.

On paper, this looks like a dramatic reduction. In practice, it locks in continued growth: emissions would still be 16 percent higher than in 2023, adding 7–8 million tons annually. Far from a cut, this is a pledge to deliver a “controlled increase” rather than a reduction.

At the Istanbul Policy Center, our recent modeling shows that if Turkey simply continues along its current path, emissions will hit 655 million tons by 2035. Strikingly, this “do nothing new” trajectory almost exactly matches the government’s pledge. Turkey’s new NDC offers no real deviation from business as usual.

Renewables on the rise but coal still big

That does not mean Turkey has done nothing. Renewable energy has grown substantially: in 2024, wind and solar accounted for 18 percent of electricity generation. Including hydro and geothermal, the share of non-fossil sources climbs to 45 percent. Electric vehicles now approach a 20 percent market share, rail electrification is increasing and building efficiency standards are tightening.

These trends have slowed emissions growth. But coal still supplies more than a third of Turkey’s electricity, and overall demand for power, vehicles, and industrial output continues to surge. Without an acceleration in renewables and electrification, emissions will remain on an upward track.

As China and EU disappoint, prospects of meeting 1.5C climate target fade

Most concerning, Turkey’s pledge is fundamentally inconsistent with its 2053 net-zero target.

The updated first NDC submitted in 2022 set 2038 as the country’s emissions peak. If emissions rise to over 650 million tons by then, cutting them to net zero within 15 years would require annual reductions exceeding 10 percent.

No country has ever sustained such rapid decarbonization. And with no plan to phase out coal, no surge in renewables, and no mainstreaming of the green transition, Turkey risks locking itself into a carbon-intensive path.

Turkey could cut emissions much faster

Yet the opportunity remains wide open. Turkey has abundant renewable resources, a young labor force, robust trade links, and access to international finance. At the Istanbul Policy Center, our Decarbonization Roadmap shows that Turkey could cut emissions to 35 percent below 2021 levels by 2035 by phasing out coal by 2036, installing 10 gigawatts of wind and solar annually, reducing fossil fuel use in buildings, and accelerating EV adoption.

None of this requires technological miracles – only political will, a clear declaration of economic transformation, and consistent policy tools.

The message is clear: Turkey’s new climate targets are not aligned with keeping global warming below 1.5C, 2C, or even 3C – and they fall far short of the country’s own 2053 net-zero pledge.

Yet with abundant renewables, strong public support, and clear economic advantages, Turkey has every reason to aim higher. The real question is not whether the country can decarbonize, but whether it will act decisively before the window of opportunity closes.

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Turkey’s new climate pledge would control emissions growth, not offer real cuts