There is a 70% chance that the 2025-2029 period will be more than 1.5C hotter than pre-industrial times, World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasters predicted in a report on Wednesday.
The 1.5C threshold is symbolically important, as all governments agreed in the 2015 Paris climate agreement to try to limit global warming to that level. Since then, diplomats presiding over climate talks have described the temperature goal as the world’s “North Star” and pledged to “keep 1.5 alive”.
The WMO’s forecasters argue that, if average global temperatures in the years from 2025-2029 are more than 1.5C hotter than the pre-industrial period of 1850-1900, this does not necessarily mean that the Paris Agreement goal would be breached. They and scientists working with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) say temperature rises should be measured in 20-year not five-year averages.
Heading for 1.5C
Nonetheless, Adam Scaife, a British physicist who worked on the latest WMO “annual to decadal climate prediction” update, told reporters that keeping warming below 1.5C – even over a longer time-frame – “would require a fortuitous intervention of natural climate variability”.
This could include, he said, a La Niña weather phenomenon or negative Arctic Oscillation leading to Eurasian winter cooling. But “it’s very unlikely that natural variability is going to come to our aid in that particular manner,” he added.
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Scaife’s colleague Leon Hermanson, from the British Met Office, added that a volcanic eruption “would change the forecast quite a lot”. Volcanic eruptions release sulphur dioxide which reflects sunlight from the earth, causing a large but temporary drop in global temperatures.
In the Paris Agreement, all governments signed up to limiting global temperature rise to “well below 2C above pre-industrial levels” and to “pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would signficantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change”.
Governments never agreed how to define a 1.5C rise in global temperatures, but the influential IPCC scientists said it should be measured as an average over a 20-year period.
Twenty-year average
To assess this with real-world observations would mean waiting ten years from any particular year to gather enough data to know if the average had surpassed 1.5C in that year. So instead the WMO’s forecasters estimate the 20-year average by using observations for the past ten years combined with predictions for the next ten years.
Using this way of calculating the 20-year average for 2024, they found that last year the world was 1.44C hotter than pre-industrial levels – even though 2024 taken alone was 1.55C above pre-industrial levels. “We are still shy of 1.5C in the global average,” Scaife said.
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The WMO report says there is an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the hottest year on record – currently 2024 – and there is an 86% chance that at least one year will be more than 1.5C above the pre-industrial period.
The forecasters also estimate there is a 1% chance that one year between 2025 and 2029 will be more than 2C above pre-industrial levels. Scaife called this a “shocking possibility”, which had gone from “effectively impossible just a few years ago” to now just “exceptionally unlikely”.
Speaking to reporters online from a “sunny Geneva”, the WMO’s director of climate services Chris Hewitt said it’s “tempting to get fixated” on whether the 1.5C limit has been breached but “every fraction of a degree matters – it’s really important to keep the warming as low as possible”.
He said that the Paris Agreement has reduced the amount by which global temperatures are predicted to rise, and the COP30 climate talks in Brazil in November are “an opportunity for the world to come together” and for “the decision makers and policy makers to take climate action”.
The post Scientists predict global warming of more than 1.5C for 2025-2029 period appeared first on Climate Home News.
Scientists predict global warming of more than 1.5C for 2025-2029 period
Climate Change
‘This is a fossil fuel crisis’, Greenpeace tells Senate gas tax Inquiry, citing homegrown renewables as path to energy security
CANBERRA, Tuesday 21 April 2026 — Greenpeace Australia Pacific has slammed gas corporation war profiteering and environmental damage in a scathing Senate hearing today as part of the Select Committee on the Taxation of Gas Resources, urging fair taxation of gas corporations and the transition to secure, homegrown renewable energy to protect Australian households and the economy from future energy shocks.
Speaking at the hearing, Greenpeace said the US and Israel’s illegal war on Iran has laid bare the fundamental flaws of an energy system built on fossil fuel extraction, geopolitical power plays and corporate greed, and will be a defining moment for how the world thinks about energy security.
Greenpeace’s submission and full opening remarks can be found here.
Joe Rafalowicz, Head of Climate and Energy at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said:
“This is not an energy crisis, it’s a fossil fuel crisis. The crisis we’re all facing lays bare the dangers of fossil fuel dependence, for our energy security, our communities, and for global peace and stability.
“Gas corporations like Woodside, Santos, Shell and Chevron — the same companies whose CEOs refused to front this Inquiry — are making obscene war profits, using the illegal war on Iran to price gouge, profiteer and push for more gas we don’t need — while people and our environment pay the price.
“Australians are getting smashed by soaring bills and the impacts of climate disasters — gas corporations should be paying their fair share to help this country, instead of sending billions offshore, tax-free.
“But we’re at a turning point — while gas corporations cynically push to open up more of our oceans and land to drilling for fossil fuels, our allies like the UK are doubling down on renewables in response to the fossil fuel crisis. Our trading partners in Asia are making the same reassessment of fossil fuels.
“Which is why the hearing today is crucial: an effective and well-designed tax on the gas industry’s obscene war time profits is a chance to channel funds to people and communities, fast-track the rollout of clean, secure homegrown wind and solar energy, while holding polluters accountable.
“Our dependence on fossil fuels leave us overexposed to the whims of tyrants like Trump — it’s in Australia’s national interest to end the fossil fuel chokehold for good and usher in the era of clean energy security.”
-ENDS-
Media contact
Kate O’Callaghan on 0406 231 892 or kate.ocallaghan@greenpeace.org
HOW WOODSIDE’S BROWSE GAS PROPOSAL THREATENS SCOTT REEF’S GREEN TURTLES AND PYGMY BLUE WHALES
Woodside’s Browse to NWS gas project is under assessment by the WA and Federal Governments right now. This is a project that involved drilling up to 50 gas wells around Scott Reef off the coast of WA. Gas would be extracted directly underneath Scott Reef and Sandy Islet and pumped through a 900-kilometre subsea pipeline to the NWS gas processing facility.
Woodside’s Browse gas project’s impact on Scott Reef’s marine habitats?
Scott Reef is one of Australia’s most ecologically significant marine environments, where green turtles breed, pygmy blue whales feed, and an array of at-risk species, including sharks, dolphins, whale sharks, rays, sawfish and sea snakes thrive. It is home to many threatened species, including some found nowhere else on Earth or in genetically isolated groups, magnifying its importance from a conservation perspective.
This delicate reef’s ecosystem faces multiple threats if Woodside’s Proposed Project goes ahead, including seismic blasting, gas flaring, noise pollution, artificial lighting, pipe laying and fast-moving vessels. The reef also faces the risk of a gas well blowout, which could have catastrophic and irreversible consequences for the region’s reefs and marine parks.
Woodside’s woeful marine impacts management plan
To secure their approvals, Woodside had to develop a plan for how they would manage the significant risks to threatened green turtles and endangered pygmy blue whales if the project proceeds. We’ve had two independent scientists provide a technical assessment of Woodsides management plan for whales and turtles and their findings are gobsmacking.
Their assessment found that Woodsides management plans for these species misrepresents or does not assess the risks the Browse project poses to Scott Reef’s pygmy blue whales and green turtles. They’ve also surmised that if the project goes ahead the impacts contradict the Australian government’s own recovery plan for turtles and Conservation Management Plan (CMP) for Blue Whales.
The State and Federal Governments now have the opportunity to define their legacies on nature protection and save Scott Reef from Woodside’s dirty gas.
Technical Assessment of Woodside’s Browse Pygmy Blue Whale Management Plan
Prepared for Greenpeace Australia Pacific by Dr Ben Fitzpatrick of Oceanwise Australia with Dr Olaf Meynecke of Griffith University.
The full technical assessment is available HERE
Scott Reef is a vital feeding, foraging and resting habitat for pygmy blue whales.
Pygmy blue whales feed, forage and rest in the Scott Reef region every year. Scott Reef is recognised as a Biologically Important Area for the pygmy blue whale and is an important stop-over on their annual migration.
Woodside’s Browse gas project could delay or prevent the population recovery of the endangered pygmy blue whales that rely on Scott Reef, heightening their extinction risk.
- Woodside’s management plan claims of “no credible threat of significant impacts” are not supported by scientific evidence.
- The management plan relies on outdated whale population information.
- Woodside has claimed it is unclear whether Scott Reef is a foraging habitat for pygmy blue whales, despite the presence of pygmy blue whales and significant concentrations of krill being documented in the area.
- The PBWMP ignores the impacts of industrial noise on whale-to-whale communication. This is especially concerning as mother-calf pairs migrate through the Scott Reef Biologically Important Area shortly after calves are born. Mother-calf pairs rely on continuous, uninterrupted communications to maintain their connection.
Woodside’s Browse gas project could delay or prevent the population recovery of the endangered pygmy blue whales that rely on Scott Reef, heightening their extinction risk.
Technical Assessment of Woodside’s Browse Turtle Management Plan
Prepared for Greenpeace Australia Pacific by Dr Ben Fitzpatrick of Oceanwise Australia.
The full technical assessment is available HERE
Scott Reef is a vital nesting ground for unique green turtles.
The green turtles that nest at Scott Reef’s low-lying Sandy Islet sand cay and nearby Browse Island are genetically unique and are classified as ‘Extremely Vulnerable’ in Australia’s Recovery Plan for Marine Turtles.
Woodside’s Browse gas project could make Scott Reef’s unique green turtles extinct.
- The Browse project would operate within 20 kilometres of nesting habitat that’s critical to the survival of Scott Reef’s genetically unique and vulnerable green turtle population.
- Woodside’s Browse Turtle Management Plan (TMP) misrepresents the risks the Browse project poses to Scott Reef’s green turtles.
- Claims in Woodside’s TMP about Scott Reef’s green turtle population size, nesting success and hatchling numbers are not backed by scientific evidence.
- The TMP proposes gathering updated data after the Browse project is approved.
- Woodside’s TMP proposes adding sand sourced elsewhere to Sandy Islet to counter subsidence and erosion, but fails to properly assess the associated risks.
To save Scott Reef and protect our oceans and animals, the State and Federal Governments must reject Browse.
Technical Assessment of Woodside’s Browse Pygmy Blue Whale Management Plan
To secure their approvals, Woodside had to develop a plan for how they would manage the significant risks to threatened green turtles if the project proceeds. We’ve had two independent scientists provide a technical assessment of Woodside’s management plan for whales and turtles and their findings are gobsmacking.
Woodside’s Browse gas project could make Scott Reef’s unique green turtles extinct.
Woodside’s Browse gas project could delay or prevent the population recovery of the endangered pygmy blue whales that rely on Scott Reef, heightening their extinction risk.
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