Saudi Arabia has cancelled plans to raise the limit on the amount of oil it aims to produce, fuelling climate campaigners’ hopes the government will accept experts’ predictions of a peak in oil demand.
The energy ministry told state-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco not to go ahead with a planned increase of its production cap from 12 to 13 million barrels a day, the company announced on Tuesday.
In a brief and unexpected statement, the world’s biggest oil firm gave no reasons for the move. But some analysts speculated that the Saudi government’s faith in ever-growing oil demand may be declining.
Saudi Arabia currently produces around 9 million barrels. A million barrels is just over 1% of the world’s oil production and equivalent to that pumped out by medium-sized oil producers like Angola or the United Kingdom.
Writing on the wall?
Oil Change International campaigner Romain Ioualalen said the decision shows Saudi Arabia “is starting to realise that the world meant it when it committed to “transition away from fossil fuels” at Cop28″.
Linking it to the US decision last week to pause new gas export terminals, Ioualalen said “the era of unchecked fossil fuel expansion is over and we’re entering the era of renewable energy”.
US government pauses new gas export terminals in ‘historic win’ for climate
Peter Wood, a strategist for oil producer Shell, said on X that “the market doesn’t need more oil production capacity right now” but with oil wells coming to the end of their lives “that can change, even if oil demand [growth] slows”.
But, while climate campaigners celebrated the signal, energy geopolitics researcher Francesco Sassi said Saudi Arabia may just be trying to push up the oil price to balance its budget.
Sassi also pointed out that over the last five years, Saudi Arabia has been burning less of its oil for electricity domestically, as it ramps up gas and invests in renewables. That leaves it more to export.
Carbon Tracker analyst Guy Prince pointed out that the new cap is still three million barrels above its current level so the country still has plenty of space to increase production.
But he added that, if Saudi Arabia is serious about restraining oil production, that would be a good move for the country.
“Considering that they’re looking to diversify their economy away from fossil fuels in the long term, it doesn’t make any sense to expand their existing production capacity,” he said.
Opec vs IEA
For years, the Saudi-led Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) has clashed with the International Energy Agency (IEA) over whether oil demand will decline or not.
The IEA predicts that, over the next five years, oil demand growth is “set to lose momentum…as the energy transition gathers pace, with an overall peak looming on the horizon”.
On the other hand, Opec claims oil demand will keep growing to 2045 and perhaps beyond.
Prince said it was “hard to see” Opec’s forecast panning out when there is “such a rapid rollout of renewable technology” and the possibility of governments stepping up climate action.
The differences in predictions are most acute for road transport. The IEA says oil demand for petrol will fall by 2028 as electric vehicle sales “soar” but Opec predicts it will keep growing strongly, although it accepts there are “high levels of uncertainties” because of the rise of electric vehicles.
Despite most major developing countries having net zero plans, Opec expects the developing world to be using more oil in 2045 than they do now.
It says this growth will be led by the world’s most populous country India, where it claims oil demand will double by 2045 as more gasoline and diesel are used.
Recent reporting from the Centre for Climate Reporting revealed Saudi Arabia has been taking measures to prop up oil demand across Asia and Africa, by investing in oil-guzzling technologies.
In the run-up to Cop28, the OPEC and the IEA clashed publicly. The IEA said that the oil and gas industry faces a “moment of truth” and “must choose between fuelling the climate crisis or embracing the shift to clean energy.
The head of Opec responded with a blog post, accusing the IEA of “unjustly villif[ying] the industry as being behind the crisis”.
At Cop28, Opec warned its members that “pressure against fossil fuels may reach a tipping point with irreversible consequences”.
But after governments agreed to “transitioning away from fossil fuels in enegy systems”, the Saudi energy minister played down the decision.
Two weeks after the summit, he claimed that this was optional. This claim was labelled “incredibly misleading” by E3G analyst Tom Evans.
The post Saudi Arabia cancels plan to raise oil pumping cap appeared first on Climate Home News.
Climate Change
The Pacific made history in the courts – now we must do it in the negotiations
Vishal Prasad is director of Pacific Islands Students Fighting Climate Change.
When the International Court of Justice (ICJ) delivered its advisory opinion on climate change last year, it marked a turning point not just for the Pacific, but for international climate law.
The court was unambiguous: states have legal obligations to protect the environment from greenhouse gas emissions, and they face accountability when they fail. For those of us who carried this campaign from a classroom in Vanuatu to Europe and New York, it was a moment of profound validation.
World’s top court opens door to compensation from countries responsible for climate crisis
But we have always said that the advisory opinion was a tool, not an endpoint. The ICJ affirmed what many in the Pacific have been saying for some time. Now we have a legal blueprint, we must carry this momentum from the courtrooms to the negotiating rooms.
Potential to shape climate politics
The advisory opinion has already begun to reshape the climate landscape. At COP30 in Belém, we saw countries that had supported the campaign citing the opinion in their interventions, while those blocking progress were clearly concerned of its implications. Its potential to shape climate politics and policy is significant.
This year we have arrived at the mid-year climate negotiations in Bonn not only with the advisory opinion, but with a UN General Assembly resolution endorsing it. Despite a fierce campaign from the usual suspects, just eight countries, including the USA, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iran voted against. That is a victory for multilateralism at a moment when multilateralism is under strain.
UN General Assembly backs “climate obligations” set by world’s top court
But we know that advisory opinions alone are not enough. Legal clarity will not automatically translate into reduced emissions, increased finance flows or stronger national climate plans. That translation requires political will in the negotiating rooms, both here in Bonn and all the way through Fiji and finally in Antalya this November.
What the Pacific needs from this negotiating year
The Pacific put significant political capital into the joint Australia-Pacific bid for COP31. It is fair to say that the compromise of Australia holding the role of president of negotiations while the COP is held and presided over by Türkiye is not what we imagined.
But we in the Pacific are used to looking for silver linings. Both Australia and Türkiye have acknowledged the important role the Pacific will have at COP31, through the appointment of Pacific champions and the hosting of a Pacific Pre-COP in Fiji with a leaders event in Tuvalu. These are genuine opportunities to bring the world to our shores and ensure that Pacific issues are front and centre going into the final negotiations.
But we are not naive. Envoy positions and meeting locations are just the architecture of goodwill. We need to see that goodwill converted into concrete negotiating outcomes and finance.
COP31 leaders unveil global targets, with spotlight on electrification
The Pacific helped put Australia’s climate minister Chris Bowen in this important position, so we expect to see Australia advocate not only for us, but to turn a mirror towards itself as one of the world’s biggest fossil fuel exporters.
At Bonn, and then in Antalya, we need ambition on mitigation that reflects the ICJ’s clarity on state obligations and the science. That means action on fossil fuels.
We need climate finance that is new, additional and accessible to the countries that need it most. In the Pacific we have already demonstrated what that looks like.
The Pacific Resilience Facility is the first climate finance facility designed, governed and managed by Pacific people, built specifically to reach the grassroots and community initiatives that larger funds routinely bypass. We need the international community to meet that ambition with contributions that reflect climate justice, starting with pledges to meet the $500-million capitalisation goal.
And we need the oceans – which are the lifeblood of the Pacific and a critical part of the global climate system – treated as a central element of the negotiations rather than a thematic aside.
Energy crisis driven by imported fossil fuels
The days of speaking about climate and fossil fuels purely as a moral issue are long gone. Pacific ministers recently adopted the Tassiriki Call for a Fossil Fuel Free Pacific, in the context of a deepening energy crisis that has triggered states of emergency in several Pacific nations. Our dependence on imported fossil fuels is both a climate and an economic vulnerability.
Conflict in the Middle East is pushing our region into an energy crisis. We are dependent on imported fossil fuels for 80% of our energy needs. My home country of Fiji could see an increased fuel bill of nearly three times our annual healthcare budget.
Comment: COP31 must persuade countries to make fossil fuel transition plans
We need the technical and financial support to transition to 100% renewable energy. Not only because it is what the world owes us for decades of carbon pollution that continue to render parts of our home uninhabitable, damaging ecosystems and culture. But because we must be part of that transition. Fossil fuels have proven to be the greatest source of damage to our climate, and with their volatility, to our sovereignty as well.
What next?
The demands have not changed. Greater action on mitigation, adaptation, finance, loss and damage: these remain the substance of what the Pacific requires from the international community. What has changed is the legal foundation beneath them.
The ICJ has affirmed that these are not requests. They are obligations. The task this year is to make the negotiations reflect that.
The post The Pacific made history in the courts – now we must do it in the negotiations appeared first on Climate Home News.
The Pacific made history in the courts – now we must do it in the negotiations
Climate Change
Biscayne Bay Is Slowly Becoming the Ocean
A 20-year record reveals an estuary tipping toward a saltier, more acidic state. These conditions threaten its hammerhead shark nursery and the aquifer that supplies Miami’s drinking water.
In the shadow of Miami’s skyline, in water churned daily by boats and jet skis, juvenile great hammerhead sharks—a critically endangered species—spend the first two years of their lives. A few miles from downtown, researchers recently pulled a 12-foot critically endangered sawfish from the same shallows. The species has been dying off in alarming numbers across South Florida’s waters since 2024, in an event scientists suspect was set in motion by record ocean heat.
Climate Change
An Old Well Gushed Waste, Not Oil, in a Small West Texas Town
The Railroad Commission of Texas shut down injection wells to control a leak in a church parking lot. But 1.5 million gallons of toxic wastewater still spilled to the surface.
GRANDFALLS, Texas—An old oil well sprang back to life under the parking lot of the First Baptist Church of Grandfalls in April.
An Old Well Gushed Waste, Not Oil, in a Small West Texas Town
-
Climate Change10 months ago
Guest post: Why China is still building new coal – and when it might stop
-
Greenhouse Gases10 months ago
Guest post: Why China is still building new coal – and when it might stop
-
Greenhouse Gases2 years ago嘉宾来稿:满足中国增长的用电需求 光伏加储能“比新建煤电更实惠”
-
Climate Change2 years ago嘉宾来稿:满足中国增长的用电需求 光伏加储能“比新建煤电更实惠”
-
Climate Change2 years ago
Bill Discounting Climate Change in Florida’s Energy Policy Awaits DeSantis’ Approval
-
Renewable Energy8 months agoSending Progressive Philanthropist George Soros to Prison?
-
Carbon Footprint2 years agoUS SEC’s Climate Disclosure Rules Spur Renewed Interest in Carbon Credits
-
Greenhouse Gases11 months ago
嘉宾来稿:探究火山喷发如何影响气候预测
