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Nickel Power Will Demand for EVs Drive Supply to New Heights by 2030

As the world accelerates its shift towards renewable energy, the role of electric vehicles (EVs) in reducing carbon emissions has become more critical. This transition depends heavily on advancements in battery technology, which is pivotal for mass EV adoption. 

A key player in this evolution is nickel, an essential material in battery production that has gained increasing attention due to its impact on EV performance and range. This article delves into the demand-supply dynamics of nickel in the EV battery sector and its role in the broader energy transition as reported by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).

Nickel’s Essential Role in EV Batteries

EV batteries consist of several critical components, with nickel playing a significant role in cathode chemistry. Nickel-rich batteries, such as Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC) and Nickel Cobalt Aluminum (NCA) chemistries, have become prevalent. These chemistries are favored due to their high energy density, which translates to longer driving ranges—a critical factor for widespread EV adoption. 

As a result, nickel-rich batteries accounted for over half of the EV battery market in 2023, even as newer alternatives like Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) gained traction. Class I nickel, essential for EV batteries, accounts for only about 30% of total nickel production.

Nickel helps improve the energy density of batteries, allowing vehicles to travel further on a single charge. This advantage makes nickel-rich chemistries particularly valuable for larger vehicles like trucks and long-haul freight, where range and efficiency are crucial. As EV adoption spreads to these heavier vehicle segments, the demand for nickel-based batteries is expected to remain robust.

Alaska Energy Metals Nickel Banner

How EV Adoption is Shaping Nickel’s Demand

The rapid increase in EV adoption is directly linked to the rising demand for battery materials, including nickel. In 2023, global EV sales reached about 14 million units, representing 18% of total automobile sales. 

By 2030, adhering to a 1.5°C scenario for climate goals would require sales reaching around 60 million units annually. This growth is expected to drive the demand for EV batteries to over 4,300 GWh per year, a significant increase from 2023 levels.

Nickel demand is closely tied to this trend, given the material’s crucial role in enhancing battery capacity. 

As of 2023, global nickel production reached 3.6 million tonnes, with Indonesia and the Philippines supplying nearly 60% of the world’s nickel. By 2030, demand for nickel in EV batteries is projected to rise to 18%, up from 8% in 2022, potentially reaching between 0.53 million and 1.09 million tonnes, depending on battery technology scenarios. 

  • The overall global nickel demand is expected to range from 3.9 to 4.7 million tonnes annually by 2030.
nickel demand from EV batteries 2022 and 2030
Source: IRENA report

This expansion would see global nickel supply grow from 3.6 million metric tons (Mt) in 2023 to potentially 5.6 Mt per year by 2030. The ability of nickel production to keep pace with EV battery demand will be critical to avoiding supply bottlenecks that could hinder EV growth.

Beyond EVs, nickel’s importance extends to other applications like battery energy storage systems (BESS). As countries integrate more renewable energy sources into their grids, BESS becomes crucial for managing energy fluctuations and ensuring a stable supply. 

The demand for BESS is expected to grow 6-fold between 2023 and 2030, complementing the growth in EV battery needs. While lithium remains the cornerstone of most battery chemistries, nickel’s contribution to BESS underscores its broadening role in energy storage solutions.

From Mine to Market: Navigating the Nickel Supply Chain 

IRENA’s outlook for nickel supply is positive. However, challenges remain in ensuring that this supply materializes. 

Despite this growing demand, the analysis indicates a lower risk of supply shortages compared to other critical materials, with a projected supply of 4.6 to 5.6 million tonnes by 2030. 

nickel supply and demand 2023 and 2030
Source: IRENA report

However, while general nickel supplies seem adequate, concerns over high-purity Class I nickel for EV batteries persist. 

Current projections suggest sufficient Class I nickel supply until 2028, but without expansion of production, shortages could arise by the end of the decade. Innovations in battery technology could significantly reduce reliance on nickel, potentially halving demand for EV batteries if alternatives gain traction.

Current projections show a potential increase in production, but this hinges on new mining projects and expansions coming online. The Asia-Pacific region, which currently dominates global battery production, is expected to see its share decrease slightly as Europe and North America ramp up capacity. 

However, ensuring sufficient nickel supply will require substantial investment in mining operations and refining capacity across multiple regions.

The potential for supply-demand imbalances remains, as the range of estimates for nickel production varies significantly. For example, the difference between the highest and lowest projections represents about 60% of the current supply, highlighting the uncertainty in meeting future demand. 

Market conditions, regulatory frameworks, and technological advancements will all play a role in determining how much of this projected supply will be realized by 2030.

The transition to electric vehicles is reshaping the global demand for battery materials, with nickel emerging as a critical component. Its role in enhancing battery energy density makes it indispensable for long-range EVs and larger vehicles like trucks. As global EV adoption surges, the demand for nickel is set to increase, requiring a corresponding expansion in supply to prevent shortages that could slow down the energy transition.

The post Nickel Power: Will Demand for EVs Drive Supply to New Heights by 2030? appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets

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The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.

The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.

This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.

The two definitions, in plain English

Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.

Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.

The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.

What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says

The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).

For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.

For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.

A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.

When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)

Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:

  • The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
  • The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
  • The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
  • It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.

The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.

When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.

The procurement and supplier engagement question

Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.

To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.

The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.

Choosing the right tool for the right target

A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.

The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.

If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.

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Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide

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Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.

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Carbon Footprint

Deforestation in Malawi: causes and solutions

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Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?

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