The nickel market experienced downward price pressure in 2024, but 2025 is expected to add more complexities. As demand for critical minerals intensifies and global processing capacity expands, major players in the nickel supply chain will face challenges in predicting prices.
Let’s explore what market research forecasts about the nickel this year.
Asia Powers Nickel Growth as Surplus Shrinks
The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) updated its nickel market forecast explaining that the surplus will narrow to 135kt in 2025, with production increasing to 3.649 Mt and demand growing to 3.514Mt.
Narrowing down to Asia, nickel production is set to rise to 3.002Mt in 2025 where Indonesia and China will be the major contributors to growth.
- Indonesia: Production will rise from 1.600Mt in 2024 to 1.700Mt in 2025.
- China: Output is expected to grow from 1.035Mt in 2024 to 1.085Mt in 2025.
These increases highlight Asia’s dominance in global nickel production, with Indonesia and China continuing to strengthen their positions as key players.

However, 2025 presents an interesting twist! Recently, Bloomberg reported that Indonesia is considering cutting its nickel mine quotas by nearly 40% in 2025. According to Macquarie Group Ltd, the Indonesian government’s proposed restrictions on nickel mining could reduce global supply by more than a third, potentially driving up nickel prices.
These cuts are expected to lower production from 272 million tons in 2024 to just 150 million tons in 2025. Already, Indonesia’s mining limitations have caused supply strains, leading to record nickel ore imports from the Philippines, the world’s second-largest producer, in 2024.
Rising Demand and Nickel Deficits in 2025
Nickel is essential for battery production, especially in high-energy-density batteries used in electric vehicles (EVs). Yet, the market faces a growing imbalance. A recent Benchmark analysis explained the key trends and risks shaping the future of energy transition materials, focusing on nickel.
It highlights,
- By 2034, nickel is expected to face a deficit of 839,000 tonnes—nearly 7X larger than today’s surplus. This shows the urgent need to tackle supply shortages.
The report further explains that approximately $514 billion in investment is required (with $220 billion allocated to upstream projects) to meet global battery demand by 2030.
Of this, nickel alone needs $66 billion—the highest of all critical materials. Without these investments, sustaining the rapidly expanding EV market could become significantly challenging

Challenges in the Nickel Market
Benchmark further explained how the nickel market is grappling with slow project development. While gigafactories and processing plants can start operating within five years, mines often take 5 to 25 years to develop. This mismatch creates a “supply-demand disconnect” that threatens the EV supply chain.
Western nations are also trying to reduce reliance on China, which dominates refining and manufacturing due to lower costs and lenient environmental rules. Shifting production to Western countries, however, increases costs and requires stricter environmental compliance.
Furthermore, the nickel market had its own share of woes in recent years due to oversupply and weak demand. Nasdaq revealed, a brief price surge in early 2024 but it fell sharply by year-end. As 2025 rolled in, nickel traded between $15,000 and $15,200 per metric ton which analysts say to be the lowest since 2020.
- CHECK OUT: LIVE NICKEL PRICES
Closing the Supply-Demand Gap
Nickel’s role in the energy transition demands immediate investment in mining. Without sufficient raw materials, even the most advanced gigafactories won’t meet EV production goals. Addressing this resource clinch is crucial to stabilizing the supply chain.
Looking ahead, managing price risks, and ensuring steady nickel supplies will remain critical. Stakeholders must navigate these challenges while seizing opportunities in the evolving market for energy transition materials.
Amid the shifting nickel market, Alaska Energy Metals Corporation (AEMC) is leading efforts to boost U.S. nickel independence. Its flagship Nikolai project in Alaska contains valuable resources of nickel, copper, cobalt, and platinum group metals, all crucial for renewable energy and electric vehicles.
UK and Saudi Arabia Forge Critical Minerals Partnership
In the latest developments, Mining.com revealed that Britain will partner with Saudi Arabia to secure critical minerals like copper, lithium, and nickel which are all essential for EVs, AI systems, and clean energy technologies. The agreement aims to strengthen supply chains, attract investment, and create opportunities for British businesses.
Saudi Arabia, valuing its untapped mineral reserves at $2.5 trillion, seeks to position itself as a global hub for mineral trade. For the UK, this partnership supports its industrial strategy focused on economic growth, job creation, and national security.
The deal coincides with ongoing UK-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement negotiations. British Industry Minister Sarah Jones will lead a trade mission to the Future Minerals Forum in Riyadh, showcasing UK companies like Cornish Lithium and Beowulf Mining. Jones emphasized the importance of securing mineral supplies to advance AI, clean energy, and technological innovation in a competitive and uncertain global landscape.
As demand for nickel continues to rise, securing the necessary $66 billion in investments will be crucial for meeting the challenges ahead in 2025. However, the market’s future will depend on addressing supply gaps and adapting to shifting global dynamics.
- FURTHER READING: Nickel Could Be the Key to U.S. Energy Independence: Alaska Energy Metals’ Strategic Role
The post Nickel Forecast 2025: Can $66 Billion Investment Solve the Supply Gap? appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets
The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.
The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.
This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.
The two definitions, in plain English
Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.
Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.
The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.
What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says
The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).
For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.
For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.
A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.
When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)
Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:
- The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
- The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
- The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
- It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.
The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.
When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.
The procurement and supplier engagement question
Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.
To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.
The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.
Choosing the right tool for the right target
A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.
The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.
If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.
Carbon Footprint
Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide
Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.
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Carbon Footprint
Deforestation in Malawi: causes and solutions
Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?
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