UK potatoes, South Korean cabbage and west African cocoa are just some of the foods that became markedly more expensive after extreme weather events in recent years, according to new research.
The study, published in Environmental Research Letters, analyses 16 examples of food price rises across the world that followed periods of extreme heat, drought or rainfall over 2022-24.
A “striking” example, according to the lead author, is the wide-ranging price impact following a 2024 heatwave in Asia, which saw cost increases from onions in India to rice in Japan.
Soaring food prices have been a major concern for consumers around the world since around 2021, with prices rising due to extreme weather fuelled by climate change, higher production costs and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – among other factors.
The new findings act as a “stark reminder” of the “significant pressure” climate change is already having on crops, a researcher not involved in the study says.
Effects of weather extremes
Extreme weather has both immediate and long-lasting impacts on food production. It can destroy growing crops, impact yields and even weaken food supply chains.
One impact frequently tied to climate change is the rising cost of food. The price of everything from olive oil to eggs, and from chocolate to rice has fluctuated in many parts of the world in recent years.
The new study analyses 16 examples of increased food prices after a period of extreme weather over 2022-24. The researchers then assess how unusual the extreme heat, drought and rainfall events were compared to historical climate data.
These case studies are outlined in the map below. The shading indicates the percentage by which each weather extreme exceeded past climate data from that time period.
Many events, indicated by the darkest shading, “were so extreme as to completely exceed all historical precedent prior to 2020”, the study says.
The analysis is based on temperature data from Copernicus ERA5 spanning 1940-2024 and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index spanning 1901-2023, along with reporting from a range of news outlets and food price data from governments and industry groups.
(ERA5 is a reanalysis dataset that combines climate observations with model simulations.)
Dr Maximilian Kotz, a postdoctoral fellow at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center and the lead author of the new study, explains that some of the examples involve multiple types of extreme weather, such as intense heat and drought. But the researchers chose the extreme which occurred closest to the price rise for “simplicity of communication” on the map.
The research team selected “prominent” case studies, Kotz tells Carbon Brief, where the “effects are so obvious…that you don’t need a substantial, quantitative statistical analysis to see them. The people on the ground can see that this is what’s happening.”
The 2024 heatwave in Asia was a particularly “striking” example, he says, adding:
“What’s so interesting there is how widespread that exceptional heat was and also how ubiquitous these effects [on food prices] essentially were towards the end of last summer.
“India, China, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam – all of these countries that all experienced really exceptional heat…and all of them had documentation of these kinds of effects, to some extent.”
The study authors note that while the 2023-24 El Niño “likely played a role in amplifying a number of these extremes”, the increased intensity and frequency of the events is “in line with the expected and observed effects of climate change”.
(Other researchers have carried out rapid attribution analyses to assess the role of climate change in a number of the events included in the study, such as UK winter rainfall in 2023, Pakistan floods in 2022 and Ethiopian drought in 2022.)
In the UK, food price inflation is still rising as retailers partly blamed “hot weather hitting harvest yields”, the Guardian reported.
Cabbage, olive oil and rice
Government statistics indicate that extreme heat across east Asia in 2024 contributed to the cost of cabbage in South Korea rising 70% and rice in Japan increasing 48% from September 2023 to September 2024, the study says. The same heat also contributed to a 30% rise in the cost of vegetables in China between June and August 2024.
China, South Korea and Japan were among the many countries to experience their hottest year on record in 2024.
In the US, the researchers find that an “unprecedented” drought in California and Arizona across 2022 contributed to an 80% increase in vegetable prices between November 2021 and November 2022.
Droughts in southern Europe in 2022-23 drove a 50% price increase in olive oil across the EU from January 2023 to January 2024. Spain is the world’s largest producer of olive oil, followed by Italy – both of which were badly affected by the drought.
Cocoa was another commodity whose price has soared globally in the past couple of years. This was due to a number of factors, the study says, including extreme weather in Ghana and the Ivory Coast where more than 60% of the world’s cocoa is grown.
Many parts of the two west African countries experienced “unprecedented” temperatures of up to 50C in February 2024, following a “prolonged drought” in 2023.
The “dangerous”, humid February heat was made about 4C hotter due to climate change, according to analysis from the World Weather Attribution group.
The new study also looks at coffee price increases after extreme heat in Vietnam in 2024 and a 2023 drought in Brazil.
Kotz said the most notable examples of price rises were with commodities such as cocoa and coffee, which are available globally, but produced in concentrated areas – opening up the “possibility for greater volatility” in the event of weather extremes.
‘Knock-on’ effects
A 2024 study by Kotz and researchers at the European Central Bank found that high temperatures increased food inflation “persistently” for 12 months after the extremes in both high- and low-income countries.
Kotz says the new study is a “follow up” to this research. It discusses some of the other factors impacting the food prices in the study, such as high transport costs contributing to rising food prices in Ethiopia, as well as rising production costs and high tourist demand contributing to soaring rice prices in Japan.
The findings are a “stark reminder that climate change is already putting significant pressure on crop production globally”, says Dr Jasper Verschuur, an assistant professor of engineering and climate security at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands.
Verschuur, who was not involved in the research, tells Carbon Brief:
“This study also stresses that the impacts of shocks to the agricultural sector can have cross-sectoral impacts – for instance, to health, political stability and monetary policy – which are rarely ever captured in modelling studies.”
He notes that while understanding of local impacts of extreme weather on crop yields and price has “improved”, the wider impacts and dual effects of climate and non-climate “shocks” are still less well-understood.
The researchers discuss some of the “knock-on societal risks” from rising food prices in the study, such as increasing economic inequality, malnutrition and an overall increase in inflation.
In a statement about the new research, Shona Goudie, the policy and advocacy manager at the Food Foundation, a UK charity whose executive director was involved in the study, says:
“Increasingly frequent price shocks due to climate change could see food insecurity and health inequalities deteriorate even further.”
The post Mapped: 16 times extreme weather drove higher food prices since 2022 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Mapped: 16 times extreme weather drove higher food prices since 2022
A first set of biodiversity plans filed by countries to reverse nature loss are “insufficient” to meet this decade’s global targets, including a landmark goal to protect at least 30% of the world’s land and marine ecosystems by 2030, a landmark UN report warned on Thursday.
The State of Biodiversity Action, put together by a panel of technical experts for the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), was released in Yerevan, ahead of the COP17 nature talks starting on Monday in the Armenian capital.
Over the next two weeks, governments will for the first time take stock of progress towards the Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) agreed in 2022 – a set of 23 targets also known as the “Paris Agreement for nature” – and will decide on policy guidelines for ramping up ambition before the 2030 deadline. The UN report will be the main basis for these negotiations.
At a press conference in Armenia, UN Secretary-General António Guterres highlighted that, while there has been some progress on the GBF, the “bad news” is that less than half of country plans are on track to meet its targets.
If current commitments are met by the end of the decade, only 26% of land ecosystems and 12% of marine ecosystems will be protected – falling “real short” of the 30% target agreed in Montreal in 2022, Guterres said. “The war on nature has not yet ended,” he added.
UN Environment chief Inger Andersen said the report “sets the tone for the focus, ambition and urgent action we need to deliver” in Armenia, including by reducing subsidies that harm nature and mobilising new finance for biodiversity. “All leaders and all negotiators must respond to these findings,” she emphasised.
Andersen added that climate change amplifies threats to biodiversity, which makes protection all the more important as global warming is now almost certain to rise above a key threshold. “Exceedence of 1.5C increases the likelihood of forest diebacks, phenological shifts, warming oceans that become more inhospitable to species, irreversible tipping points and so much more,” she said.
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Progress on land but ocean lags behind
The report shows that if countries meet all the biodiversity targets in their plans, this would protect about 27% of the world’s land and sea by 2030, a fivefold increase in the span of ten years.
Progress has been uneven, with most conservation efforts focused on terrestrial ecosystems. The report suggests that currently about 19% of land ecosystems are protected, up two percentage points from 2020, which UN authorities welcomed but said is not a fast enough pace.
However, the real gap is at sea, where only about 10% of the global ocean has some sort of protection. Coastal areas under national jurisdiction have done better, as currently 23% of this marine territory is protected, but the report shows most of the deep ocean is not.
Brian O’Donnell, director of Campaign for Nature, an advocacy group, said the new High Seas Treaty – which entered into force this year and will allow for the creation of Marine Protected Areas in the deep ocean – represents an opportunity, as only about 1.5% is under protection so far.
A group of environmental NGOs including WWF and Bloomberg Philanthropies has issued a call for governments to scale up ocean conservation and to designate $16 billion annually for marine protection measures, up from $1.8bn now.
SE Asia speeds up plan for connected clean power grid after oil shock
Some countries did not set a conservation target at all for both land and sea, the report says, blaming technical challenges like how to account for overlapping protected areas, difficulty recognising protections for private land and land-accounting methodologies changing over time.
A separate report by Campaign for Nature suggests that the 30×30 goal could still be met with “increased ambition and commitment”, and says that around 50 countries have already protected about 30% of their land.
A group of environmental NGOs has warned that, beyond the 30% headline figure, protected areas need to be “high integrity” and recognise the stewardship of local communities and Indigenous peoples.
Developing countries call for finance
Rich countries will arrive at COP17 with shrinking aid budgets and geopolitical preoccupations – yet they will likely hear the same plea they’ve heard for the past few years: stepping up commitments will require finance.
A submission by African countries in August said the “implementation gap” has at its core a shortfall in the provision of funds, and that bridging it will require predictable and accessible finance.
Pacific island nations launched a similar call, arguing there is “a treaty obligation” that developing countries, including themselves, will effectively implement commitments depending on the finance and technology made available by developed nations.
To close this gap, the EU made a proposal at preliminary talks in Nairobi in August to expand the base of donors so that richer developing countries could voluntarily assume donor responsibilities. Saudi Arabia and Qatar rejected the idea, while China said this should not weaken the responsibility of developed nations.
Pre-COP draws attention to Pacific’s climate plight and 1.5C goal
So far, wealthy governments have missed a target to provide $20bn per year in international public finance for nature protection by 2025, reaching only about $16bn per year from 2023 to 2025, according to an OECD report. By 2030, the GBF aims for developed countries to directly transfer $30bn per year, and mobilise $200bn from all sources.
The UN report released on Thursday shows even slower progress in redirecting harmful subsidies such as those which encourage the overuse of fertilisers and the production and consumption of new fossil fuels, and below-market fees that encourage overfishing. UN Environment estimates that for every dollar spent protecting nature, $30 goes on destroying it.
UN biodiversity chief Astrid Schomaker told journalists in Yerevan that “if you hear there is no finance, please do not believe it” because economies are continuing to grow. “It is being spent on activities that harm the economy rather than those that work with nature and sustain life on this planet,” she said.
Guterres said developed countries tend to say they are grappling with budget constraints due to increased defence expenditure, which “in my view does not justify a reduction” in international aid. He added that existing resources can be multiplied if they are used to mobilise private capital.
Campaigners, companies and the Armenian government want to shift the needle on this situation at COP17 by highlighting how positive subsidies help restore biodiversity. They will launch a flagship call to action that will be taken forward by countries and groups working to reform damaging incentives.
Global review: the main act
The Global Review of Collective Progress – a bit like the Global Stocktake for climate action – is set to be the most important outcome from COP17, and it will be the first time this process unfolds at the biodiversity talks. The actions decided in Yerevan will respond to the gaps outlined in the State of Biodiversity Action report and determine whether countries can turn the tide of biodiversity loss this decade.
Overall, the report shows that while countries have taken action to address all 23 targets in the GBF, none “present a fully positive picture”. A target to strengthen the resilience of ecosystems to climate impacts is the only one with high relative progress, the report says, as government have already made effective interventions that show “a positive trend”.
The report assessed each country’s national targets, which define their contribution to the global goals, as well as their separate National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plans (NBSAPs) outlining how they will achieve the national targets.
But it does not paint a complete picture, since at the cut-off date, only 89 NBSAPs and national targets from 162 countries had been submitted, leaving out a couple of dozen plans that arrived late. Pacific island nations said this might undercount commitments.
Many of those lacking an NBSAP are biodiversity-rich developing countries, which say they need financial and technical support to fully develop these plans. Some large nations pending an NBSAP include South Africa, Bolivia and Russia.
Since the GBF was agreed in 2022, governments have mostly focused on developing their biodiversity targets and plans, while the lion’s share of implementation is expected to happen towards the end of the decade, according to UN biodiversity chief Schomaker.
But O’Donnell said “accelerated political ambition” is still needed to improve commitments and translate them into effective protection on the ground or at sea.
The post Countries urged to ramp up “insufficient” nature policies at COP17 appeared first on Climate Home News.
Countries urged to ramp up “insufficient” nature policies at COP17