UK potatoes, South Korean cabbage and west African cocoa are just some of the foods that became markedly more expensive after extreme weather events in recent years, according to new research.
The study, published in Environmental Research Letters, analyses 16 examples of food price rises across the world that followed periods of extreme heat, drought or rainfall over 2022-24.
A “striking” example, according to the lead author, is the wide-ranging price impact following a 2024 heatwave in Asia, which saw cost increases from onions in India to rice in Japan.
Soaring food prices have been a major concern for consumers around the world since around 2021, with prices rising due to extreme weather fuelled by climate change, higher production costs and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – among other factors.
The new findings act as a “stark reminder” of the “significant pressure” climate change is already having on crops, a researcher not involved in the study says.
Effects of weather extremes
Extreme weather has both immediate and long-lasting impacts on food production. It can destroy growing crops, impact yields and even weaken food supply chains.
One impact frequently tied to climate change is the rising cost of food. The price of everything from olive oil to eggs, and from chocolate to rice has fluctuated in many parts of the world in recent years.
The new study analyses 16 examples of increased food prices after a period of extreme weather over 2022-24. The researchers then assess how unusual the extreme heat, drought and rainfall events were compared to historical climate data.
These case studies are outlined in the map below. The shading indicates the percentage by which each weather extreme exceeded past climate data from that time period.
Many events, indicated by the darkest shading, “were so extreme as to completely exceed all historical precedent prior to 2020”, the study says.
The analysis is based on temperature data from Copernicus ERA5 spanning 1940-2024 and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index spanning 1901-2023, along with reporting from a range of news outlets and food price data from governments and industry groups.
(ERA5 is a reanalysis dataset that combines climate observations with model simulations.)
Dr Maximilian Kotz, a postdoctoral fellow at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center and the lead author of the new study, explains that some of the examples involve multiple types of extreme weather, such as intense heat and drought. But the researchers chose the extreme which occurred closest to the price rise for “simplicity of communication” on the map.
The research team selected “prominent” case studies, Kotz tells Carbon Brief, where the “effects are so obvious…that you don’t need a substantial, quantitative statistical analysis to see them. The people on the ground can see that this is what’s happening.”
The 2024 heatwave in Asia was a particularly “striking” example, he says, adding:
“What’s so interesting there is how widespread that exceptional heat was and also how ubiquitous these effects [on food prices] essentially were towards the end of last summer.
“India, China, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam – all of these countries that all experienced really exceptional heat…and all of them had documentation of these kinds of effects, to some extent.”
The study authors note that while the 2023-24 El Niño “likely played a role in amplifying a number of these extremes”, the increased intensity and frequency of the events is “in line with the expected and observed effects of climate change”.
(Other researchers have carried out rapid attribution analyses to assess the role of climate change in a number of the events included in the study, such as UK winter rainfall in 2023, Pakistan floods in 2022 and Ethiopian drought in 2022.)
In the UK, food price inflation is still rising as retailers partly blamed “hot weather hitting harvest yields”, the Guardian reported.
Cabbage, olive oil and rice
Government statistics indicate that extreme heat across east Asia in 2024 contributed to the cost of cabbage in South Korea rising 70% and rice in Japan increasing 48% from September 2023 to September 2024, the study says. The same heat also contributed to a 30% rise in the cost of vegetables in China between June and August 2024.
China, South Korea and Japan were among the many countries to experience their hottest year on record in 2024.
In the US, the researchers find that an “unprecedented” drought in California and Arizona across 2022 contributed to an 80% increase in vegetable prices between November 2021 and November 2022.
Droughts in southern Europe in 2022-23 drove a 50% price increase in olive oil across the EU from January 2023 to January 2024. Spain is the world’s largest producer of olive oil, followed by Italy – both of which were badly affected by the drought.
Cocoa was another commodity whose price has soared globally in the past couple of years. This was due to a number of factors, the study says, including extreme weather in Ghana and the Ivory Coast where more than 60% of the world’s cocoa is grown.
Many parts of the two west African countries experienced “unprecedented” temperatures of up to 50C in February 2024, following a “prolonged drought” in 2023.
The “dangerous”, humid February heat was made about 4C hotter due to climate change, according to analysis from the World Weather Attribution group.
The new study also looks at coffee price increases after extreme heat in Vietnam in 2024 and a 2023 drought in Brazil.
Kotz said the most notable examples of price rises were with commodities such as cocoa and coffee, which are available globally, but produced in concentrated areas – opening up the “possibility for greater volatility” in the event of weather extremes.
‘Knock-on’ effects
A 2024 study by Kotz and researchers at the European Central Bank found that high temperatures increased food inflation “persistently” for 12 months after the extremes in both high- and low-income countries.
Kotz says the new study is a “follow up” to this research. It discusses some of the other factors impacting the food prices in the study, such as high transport costs contributing to rising food prices in Ethiopia, as well as rising production costs and high tourist demand contributing to soaring rice prices in Japan.
The findings are a “stark reminder that climate change is already putting significant pressure on crop production globally”, says Dr Jasper Verschuur, an assistant professor of engineering and climate security at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands.
Verschuur, who was not involved in the research, tells Carbon Brief:
“This study also stresses that the impacts of shocks to the agricultural sector can have cross-sectoral impacts – for instance, to health, political stability and monetary policy – which are rarely ever captured in modelling studies.”
He notes that while understanding of local impacts of extreme weather on crop yields and price has “improved”, the wider impacts and dual effects of climate and non-climate “shocks” are still less well-understood.
The researchers discuss some of the “knock-on societal risks” from rising food prices in the study, such as increasing economic inequality, malnutrition and an overall increase in inflation.
In a statement about the new research, Shona Goudie, the policy and advocacy manager at the Food Foundation, a UK charity whose executive director was involved in the study, says:
“Increasingly frequent price shocks due to climate change could see food insecurity and health inequalities deteriorate even further.”
The post Mapped: 16 times extreme weather drove higher food prices since 2022 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Mapped: 16 times extreme weather drove higher food prices since 2022
Climate Change
‘This is a fossil fuel crisis’, Greenpeace tells Senate gas tax Inquiry, citing homegrown renewables as path to energy security
CANBERRA, Tuesday 21 April 2026 — Greenpeace Australia Pacific has slammed gas corporation war profiteering and environmental damage in a scathing Senate hearing today as part of the Select Committee on the Taxation of Gas Resources, urging fair taxation of gas corporations and the transition to secure, homegrown renewable energy to protect Australian households and the economy from future energy shocks.
Speaking at the hearing, Greenpeace said the US and Israel’s illegal war on Iran has laid bare the fundamental flaws of an energy system built on fossil fuel extraction, geopolitical power plays and corporate greed, and will be a defining moment for how the world thinks about energy security.
Greenpeace’s submission and full opening remarks can be found here.
Joe Rafalowicz, Head of Climate and Energy at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said:
“This is not an energy crisis, it’s a fossil fuel crisis. The crisis we’re all facing lays bare the dangers of fossil fuel dependence, for our energy security, our communities, and for global peace and stability.
“Gas corporations like Woodside, Santos, Shell and Chevron — the same companies whose CEOs refused to front this Inquiry — are making obscene war profits, using the illegal war on Iran to price gouge, profiteer and push for more gas we don’t need — while people and our environment pay the price.
“Australians are getting smashed by soaring bills and the impacts of climate disasters — gas corporations should be paying their fair share to help this country, instead of sending billions offshore, tax-free.
“But we’re at a turning point — while gas corporations cynically push to open up more of our oceans and land to drilling for fossil fuels, our allies like the UK are doubling down on renewables in response to the fossil fuel crisis. Our trading partners in Asia are making the same reassessment of fossil fuels.
“Which is why the hearing today is crucial: an effective and well-designed tax on the gas industry’s obscene war time profits is a chance to channel funds to people and communities, fast-track the rollout of clean, secure homegrown wind and solar energy, while holding polluters accountable.
“Our dependence on fossil fuels leave us overexposed to the whims of tyrants like Trump — it’s in Australia’s national interest to end the fossil fuel chokehold for good and usher in the era of clean energy security.”
-ENDS-
Media contact
Kate O’Callaghan on 0406 231 892 or kate.ocallaghan@greenpeace.org
HOW WOODSIDE’S BROWSE GAS PROPOSAL THREATENS SCOTT REEF’S GREEN TURTLES AND PYGMY BLUE WHALES
Woodside’s Browse to NWS gas project is under assessment by the WA and Federal Governments right now. This is a project that involved drilling up to 50 gas wells around Scott Reef off the coast of WA. Gas would be extracted directly underneath Scott Reef and Sandy Islet and pumped through a 900-kilometre subsea pipeline to the NWS gas processing facility.
Woodside’s Browse gas project’s impact on Scott Reef’s marine habitats?
Scott Reef is one of Australia’s most ecologically significant marine environments, where green turtles breed, pygmy blue whales feed, and an array of at-risk species, including sharks, dolphins, whale sharks, rays, sawfish and sea snakes thrive. It is home to many threatened species, including some found nowhere else on Earth or in genetically isolated groups, magnifying its importance from a conservation perspective.
This delicate reef’s ecosystem faces multiple threats if Woodside’s Proposed Project goes ahead, including seismic blasting, gas flaring, noise pollution, artificial lighting, pipe laying and fast-moving vessels. The reef also faces the risk of a gas well blowout, which could have catastrophic and irreversible consequences for the region’s reefs and marine parks.
Woodside’s woeful marine impacts management plan
To secure their approvals, Woodside had to develop a plan for how they would manage the significant risks to threatened green turtles and endangered pygmy blue whales if the project proceeds. We’ve had two independent scientists provide a technical assessment of Woodsides management plan for whales and turtles and their findings are gobsmacking.
Their assessment found that Woodsides management plans for these species misrepresents or does not assess the risks the Browse project poses to Scott Reef’s pygmy blue whales and green turtles. They’ve also surmised that if the project goes ahead the impacts contradict the Australian government’s own recovery plan for turtles and Conservation Management Plan (CMP) for Blue Whales.
The State and Federal Governments now have the opportunity to define their legacies on nature protection and save Scott Reef from Woodside’s dirty gas.
Technical Assessment of Woodside’s Browse Pygmy Blue Whale Management Plan
Prepared for Greenpeace Australia Pacific by Dr Ben Fitzpatrick of Oceanwise Australia with Dr Olaf Meynecke of Griffith University.
The full technical assessment is available HERE
Scott Reef is a vital feeding, foraging and resting habitat for pygmy blue whales.
Pygmy blue whales feed, forage and rest in the Scott Reef region every year. Scott Reef is recognised as a Biologically Important Area for the pygmy blue whale and is an important stop-over on their annual migration.
Woodside’s Browse gas project could delay or prevent the population recovery of the endangered pygmy blue whales that rely on Scott Reef, heightening their extinction risk.
- Woodside’s management plan claims of “no credible threat of significant impacts” are not supported by scientific evidence.
- The management plan relies on outdated whale population information.
- Woodside has claimed it is unclear whether Scott Reef is a foraging habitat for pygmy blue whales, despite the presence of pygmy blue whales and significant concentrations of krill being documented in the area.
- The PBWMP ignores the impacts of industrial noise on whale-to-whale communication. This is especially concerning as mother-calf pairs migrate through the Scott Reef Biologically Important Area shortly after calves are born. Mother-calf pairs rely on continuous, uninterrupted communications to maintain their connection.
Woodside’s Browse gas project could delay or prevent the population recovery of the endangered pygmy blue whales that rely on Scott Reef, heightening their extinction risk.
Technical Assessment of Woodside’s Browse Turtle Management Plan
Prepared for Greenpeace Australia Pacific by Dr Ben Fitzpatrick of Oceanwise Australia.
The full technical assessment is available HERE
Scott Reef is a vital nesting ground for unique green turtles.
The green turtles that nest at Scott Reef’s low-lying Sandy Islet sand cay and nearby Browse Island are genetically unique and are classified as ‘Extremely Vulnerable’ in Australia’s Recovery Plan for Marine Turtles.
Woodside’s Browse gas project could make Scott Reef’s unique green turtles extinct.
- The Browse project would operate within 20 kilometres of nesting habitat that’s critical to the survival of Scott Reef’s genetically unique and vulnerable green turtle population.
- Woodside’s Browse Turtle Management Plan (TMP) misrepresents the risks the Browse project poses to Scott Reef’s green turtles.
- Claims in Woodside’s TMP about Scott Reef’s green turtle population size, nesting success and hatchling numbers are not backed by scientific evidence.
- The TMP proposes gathering updated data after the Browse project is approved.
- Woodside’s TMP proposes adding sand sourced elsewhere to Sandy Islet to counter subsidence and erosion, but fails to properly assess the associated risks.
To save Scott Reef and protect our oceans and animals, the State and Federal Governments must reject Browse.
Technical Assessment of Woodside’s Browse Pygmy Blue Whale Management Plan
To secure their approvals, Woodside had to develop a plan for how they would manage the significant risks to threatened green turtles if the project proceeds. We’ve had two independent scientists provide a technical assessment of Woodside’s management plan for whales and turtles and their findings are gobsmacking.
Woodside’s Browse gas project could make Scott Reef’s unique green turtles extinct.
Woodside’s Browse gas project could delay or prevent the population recovery of the endangered pygmy blue whales that rely on Scott Reef, heightening their extinction risk.
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