The lithium market is at the center of the energy transition, driven by the soaring demand for electric vehicles (EVs). However, the journey to meet this demand is fraught with challenges. This article explores the future of lithium supply, demand, and price trends, highlighting critical investment needs and market dynamics.
The Great Raw Material Disconnect: Why Lithium Supply Trails EV Demand
Forecasts indicate a looming lithium deficit that could significantly impact the EV market. Per Benchmark, the lithium market could face a shortfall of 572,000 tonnes by 2034—7x larger than current surpluses.
- While over one million tonnes of mined lithium are expected in 2024, this output must grow to 2.7 million tonnes by 2030 to meet rising demand, particularly from the EV sector.
The disparity between raw material supply and demand—termed the “great raw material disconnect”—is worsened by the lengthy timeline for developing lithium mines. Mines can take 5 to 25 years to become operational, while midstream and downstream facilities require less than five years. This misalignment presents a significant bottleneck for the battery industry.
Investment Needs
Benchmark analysis reveals a staggering $514 billion investment required by 2030 to meet battery demand. Of this, $220 billion will be for upstream projects while $51 billion must be invested in lithium production.
However, Western countries face higher costs and stricter environmental regulations compared to China, making investment a more complex challenge. Governments aiming to derisk supply chains from Chinese dominance may further inflate the required investment figure.
In another analysis, Benchmark estimated that the industry must secure $116 billion in investments by 2030 to meet EV targets. This “high case” scenario reflects growing EV adoption driven by government decarbonization policies and automaker commitments.

However, even with all planned lithium projects coming online, a 1.8-million-tonne shortfall remains. This speaks of the need for new mines, refineries, and expanded production. Automakers, aware of lithium’s critical role, are proactively investing upstream to secure supply.
General Motors and Tesla are making significant moves, with GM investing $650 million in Lithium Americas for its Nevada mine and Tesla building a $1 billion lithium refinery in Texas. Other players like BYD and CATL are establishing lithium facilities and joint ventures to boost production.
Automaker targets are ambitious: Tesla plans 20 million EVs annually by 2030, while General Motors and Mercedes-Benz aim for fully electric lineups by 2035 and 2030, respectively.
However, without accelerated lithium investments, these goals risk falling short, highlighting lithium as a bottleneck in the EV revolution.
Lithium Prices in Flux: Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook
Lithium prices have been subject to volatility, influenced by market dynamics and global supply-demand imbalances. Forecasting long-term prices is particularly challenging due to the lack of futures markets, with most trading occurring in spot markets.
Short-Term Price Trends
The Australian Government’s Office of the Chief Economist predicts a brief recovery for lithium hydroxide prices before a decline by 2026.

In 2025, the annual average price for lithium carbonate is expected to drop to approximately $10,542 per metric ton, down from $12,374 in 2024, per S&P Global Commodity Insight. Meanwhile, surpluses are projected to narrow, with a 33,000-tonne surplus in 2025 compared to 84,000 tonnes in 2024.
Medium- to Long-Term Price Outlook
In the medium term, analysts foresee lithium prices recovering to the marginal cost of production, estimated at $15,000–$20,000 per metric ton. Sustained structural deficits are expected to emerge, driving prices toward this range and potentially higher.
By the fourth quarter of 2024, some experts anticipate prices reaching the low $20s per kilogram. While prices may not revisit the highs of $40,000–$50,000 per tonne, a stable pricing environment is anticipated.
Market Adjustments and Structural Deficits
To balance the market, producers are implementing measures such as supply cuts, project delays, and stockpiling. Companies like Albemarle are reducing supply to address the current oversupply, while high-cost operations, such as Arcadium Lithium’s Mt. Cattlin project in Australia, are being placed into care and maintenance.
As prices stabilize and demand continues to grow, these structural deficits will likely drive further investment and price recovery. Moreover, strong demand will likely push the lithium prices higher in 2025 and beyond.

Navigating Risks and Opportunities in the Lithium Boom
The lithium market is exposed to risks, including volatile energy prices and geopolitical tensions. The reliance on lengthy mine development timelines poses a critical challenge, potentially delaying the supply chain’s ability to meet rising EV demand.
However, the market also offers substantial opportunities. Decarbonization efforts and the global shift to renewable energy sources are creating efficiencies and new markets for low-emissions products. Stable lithium prices and sustained investment could unlock significant growth potential for companies operating in the sector.
The lithium market is at a crossroads. On one hand, rising EV demand and decarbonization goals are driving unprecedented growth opportunities. On the other, supply chain challenges and volatile prices present significant hurdles. Addressing the “great raw material disconnect” through timely investment and strategic planning will be critical to meeting future demand.
Governments and other stakeholders must act decisively to bridge the gap between supply and demand, ensuring the lithium market can support the global energy transition.
The post Lithium Market in 2025 and Beyond: Supply Deficit Looms with $116B Requirement appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
Climate Impact Partners Unveils High-Quality Carbon Credits from Sabah Rainforest in Malaysia
The voluntary carbon market is changing. Buyers are no longer focused only on large volumes of cheap credits. Instead, they want projects with strong science, long-term monitoring, and clear proof that carbon has truly been removed from the atmosphere. That shift is drawing more attention to high-integrity, nature-based projects.
One project now gaining that spotlight is the Sabah INFAPRO rainforest rehabilitation project in Malaysia. Climate Impact Partners announced that the project is now issuing verified carbon removal credits, opening access to one of the highest-quality nature-based removals currently available in the global market.
Restoring One of the World’s Richest Rainforest Ecosystems
The project is located in Sabah, Malaysia, on the island of Borneo. This region is home to tropical dipterocarp rainforest, one of the richest forest ecosystems on Earth. These forests store huge amounts of carbon and support extraordinary biodiversity. Some dipterocarp trees can grow up to 70 meters tall, creating habitat for orangutans, pygmy elephants, gibbons, sun bears, and the critically endangered Sumatran rhino.
However, the forest within the INFAPRO project area was not intact. In the 1980s, selective logging removed many of the most valuable tree species, especially large dipterocarps. That caused serious ecological damage. Once the key mother trees were gone, natural regeneration became much harder. Young seedlings also had to compete with dense vines and shrubs, which slowed the forest’s recovery.
To repair that damage, the INFAPRO project was launched in the Ulu-Segama forestry management unit in eastern Sabah.
- The project has restored more than 25,000 hectares of logged-over rainforest.
- It was developed by Face the Future in cooperation with Yayasan Sabah, while Climate Impact Partners has supported the project and helped bring its credits to market.
Why Sabah’s Carbon Removals are Attracting Attention
What makes Sabah INFAPRO different is not only the size of the restoration effort. It is also the way the project measured carbon gains.

Many forest carbon projects issue credits in annual vintages based on year-by-year growth estimates. Sabah INFAPRO followed a different path. It used a landscape-scale monitoring system and waited until the forest moved through its strongest natural growth period before issuing removal credits.
- This approach gives the credits more weight. Rather than relying mainly on short-term annual estimates, the project measured carbon sequestration over a longer period. That helps show that the forest delivered real, sustained, and measurable carbon removal.
The scientific backing is also unusually strong. Since 2007, the project has maintained nearly 400 permanent monitoring plots. These plots have allowed researchers, independent auditors, and technical specialists to observe the full growth cycle of dipterocarp forest recovery. The result is a large body of field data that supports carbon calculations and strengthens confidence in the credits.
In simple terms, buyers are not just being asked to trust a model. They are being shown years of direct forest monitoring across the project landscape.
Strong Ratings Support Market Confidence
Independent assessment has also lifted the project’s profile. BeZero awarded Sabah INFAPRO an A.pre overall rating and an AA score for permanence. That places the project among the highest-rated Improved Forest Management, or IFM, projects in the world.
The rating reflects several important strengths. First, the project has very low exposure to reversal risk. Second, it has a long and stable operating history. Third, its measured carbon gains align well with peer-reviewed ecological research and independent analysis.
These points matter in today’s market. Buyers have become more cautious after years of debate over the quality of some forest carbon credits. As a result, they now look more closely at durability, transparency, and third-party validation. Sabah INFAPRO’s rating helps answer those concerns and makes the project more attractive to companies looking for credible carbon removal.
The project is also registered with Verra’s Verified Carbon Standard under the name INFAPRO Rehabilitation of Logged-over Dipterocarp Forest in Sabah, Malaysia. That adds another level of market recognition and verification.
A Wider Model for Rainforest Recovery
Sabah INFAPRO also shows why high-quality nature-based projects are about more than carbon alone. The restoration effort supports broader ecological recovery in one of the world’s most important rainforest regions.
Climate Impact Partners said it has worked with project partners to restore degraded areas, run local training programs, carry out monthly forest patrols, and distribute seedlings to support rainforest recovery beyond the project boundary. These efforts help strengthen the wider landscape and expand the project’s environmental impact.
That broader value is becoming more important for buyers. Companies increasingly want projects that support biodiversity, ecosystem health, and local engagement, along with carbon removal. Sabah INFAPRO offers that mix, making it a stronger fit for the market’s shift toward higher-integrity credits.

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Carbon Footprint
Bitcoin Falls as Energy Prices Rise: Why Crypto Is Now an Energy Market Story
Bitcoin’s recent drop below $70,000 reflects more than short-term market pressure. It signals a deeper shift. The world’s largest cryptocurrency is becoming increasingly tied to global energy markets.
For years, Bitcoin has moved mainly on investor sentiment, adoption trends, and regulation. Today, another force is shaping its direction: the cost of energy.
As oil prices rise and electricity markets tighten, Bitcoin is starting to behave less like a tech asset and more like an energy-dependent system. This shift is changing how investors, analysts, and policymakers understand crypto.
A Global Power Consumer: Inside Bitcoin’s Energy Use
Bitcoin depends on mining, a process that uses powerful computers to verify transactions. These machines run continuously and consume large amounts of electricity.
Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows Bitcoin mining used between 67 and 240 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity in 2023, with a midpoint estimate of about 120 TWh.

Other estimates place consumption closer to 170 TWh per year in 2025. This accounts for roughly 0.5% of global electricity demand. Recently, as of February 2026, estimates see Bitcoin’s energy use reaching over 200 TWh per year.
That level of energy use is significant. Global electricity demand reached about 27,400 TWh in 2023. Bitcoin’s share may seem small, but it is comparable to the power use of mid-sized countries.
The network also requires steady power. Estimates suggest it draws around 10 gigawatts continuously, similar to several large power plants operating at full capacity. This constant demand makes energy costs central to Bitcoin’s economics.
When Oil Rises, Bitcoin Falls
Bitcoin mining is highly sensitive to electricity prices. Energy is the highest operating cost for miners. When power becomes more expensive, profit margins shrink.
Recent market movements show this link clearly. As oil prices rise and inflation concerns persist, energy costs have increased. At the same time, Bitcoin prices have weakened, falling below the $70,000 level.

This is not a coincidence. Studies show a direct relationship between Bitcoin prices, mining activity, and electricity use. When Bitcoin prices rise, more miners join the network, increasing energy demand. When energy costs rise, less efficient miners may shut down, reducing activity and adding selling pressure.
This creates a feedback loop between crypto and energy markets. Bitcoin is no longer driven only by demand and speculation. It is now influenced by the same forces that affect oil, gas, and power prices.
Cleaner Energy Use Is Growing, but Fossil Fuels Still Matter
Bitcoin’s environmental impact depends on its energy mix. This mix is improving, but it remains uneven.
A 2025 study from the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance found that 52.4% of Bitcoin mining now uses sustainable energy. This includes both renewable sources (42.6%) and nuclear power (9.8%). The share has risen significantly from about 37.6% in 2022.
Despite this progress, fossil fuels still account for a large portion of mining energy. Natural gas alone makes up about 38.2%, while coal continues to contribute a smaller share.

This reliance on fossil fuels keeps emissions high. Current estimates suggest Bitcoin produces more than 114 million tons of carbon dioxide each year. That puts it in line with emissions from some industrial sectors.
The shift toward cleaner energy is real, but it is not complete. The pace of change will play a key role in how Bitcoin fits into global climate goals.
Bitcoin’s Climate Debate Intensifies
Bitcoin’s growing energy demand has placed it at the center of ESG discussions. Its impact is often measured through three key areas:
- Total electricity use, which rivals that of entire countries.
- Carbon emissions are estimated at over 100 million tons of CO₂ annually.
- Energy intensity, with a single transaction using large amounts of power.

At the same time, the industry is evolving. Mining companies are adopting more efficient hardware and exploring new energy sources. Some operations use excess renewable power or capture waste energy, such as flare gas from oil fields.
These efforts show progress, but they do not fully address the concerns. The gap between Bitcoin’s energy use and its environmental impact remains a key issue for investors and regulators.
- MUST READ: Bitcoin Price Hits All-Time High Above $126K: ETFs, Market Drivers, and the Future of Digital Gold
Bitcoin Is Becoming Part of the Energy System
Bitcoin mining is now closely integrated with the broader energy system. Operators often choose locations based on access to cheap or excess electricity. This includes areas with strong renewable generation or underused energy resources.
This integration creates both opportunities and challenges. On one hand, mining can support energy systems by using power that might otherwise go to waste. It can also provide flexible demand that helps stabilize grids.
On the other hand, it can increase pressure on local electricity supplies and extend the use of fossil fuels if cleaner options are not available.
In the United States, Bitcoin mining could account for up to 2.3% of total electricity demand in certain scenarios. This highlights how quickly the sector is scaling and how closely it is tied to national energy systems.
Energy Markets Are Now Key to Bitcoin’s Future
Looking ahead, the connection between Bitcoin and energy is expected to grow stronger. The network’s computing power, or hash rate, continues to reach new highs, which typically leads to higher energy use.
Electricity will remain the main cost for miners. This means Bitcoin will continue to respond to changes in energy prices and supply conditions. At the same time, governments are starting to pay closer attention to crypto’s environmental impact, which could shape future regulations.

Some forecasts suggest Bitcoin’s energy use could rise sharply if adoption increases, potentially reaching up to 400 TWh in extreme scenarios. However, cleaner energy systems could reduce the carbon impact over time.
Bitcoin is no longer just a financial asset. It is also a large-scale energy consumer and a growing part of the global power system.
As a result, understanding Bitcoin now requires a broader view. Energy prices, electricity markets, and carbon trends are becoming just as important as market demand and investor sentiment.
The message is clear. As energy markets move, Bitcoin is likely to move with them.
The post Bitcoin Falls as Energy Prices Rise: Why Crypto Is Now an Energy Market Story appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
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