The lithium market is at the center of the energy transition, driven by the soaring demand for electric vehicles (EVs). However, the journey to meet this demand is fraught with challenges. This article explores the future of lithium supply, demand, and price trends, highlighting critical investment needs and market dynamics.
The Great Raw Material Disconnect: Why Lithium Supply Trails EV Demand
Forecasts indicate a looming lithium deficit that could significantly impact the EV market. Per Benchmark, the lithium market could face a shortfall of 572,000 tonnes by 2034—7x larger than current surpluses.
- While over one million tonnes of mined lithium are expected in 2024, this output must grow to 2.7 million tonnes by 2030 to meet rising demand, particularly from the EV sector.
The disparity between raw material supply and demand—termed the “great raw material disconnect”—is worsened by the lengthy timeline for developing lithium mines. Mines can take 5 to 25 years to become operational, while midstream and downstream facilities require less than five years. This misalignment presents a significant bottleneck for the battery industry.
Investment Needs
Benchmark analysis reveals a staggering $514 billion investment required by 2030 to meet battery demand. Of this, $220 billion will be for upstream projects while $51 billion must be invested in lithium production.
However, Western countries face higher costs and stricter environmental regulations compared to China, making investment a more complex challenge. Governments aiming to derisk supply chains from Chinese dominance may further inflate the required investment figure.
In another analysis, Benchmark estimated that the industry must secure $116 billion in investments by 2030 to meet EV targets. This “high case” scenario reflects growing EV adoption driven by government decarbonization policies and automaker commitments.

However, even with all planned lithium projects coming online, a 1.8-million-tonne shortfall remains. This speaks of the need for new mines, refineries, and expanded production. Automakers, aware of lithium’s critical role, are proactively investing upstream to secure supply.
General Motors and Tesla are making significant moves, with GM investing $650 million in Lithium Americas for its Nevada mine and Tesla building a $1 billion lithium refinery in Texas. Other players like BYD and CATL are establishing lithium facilities and joint ventures to boost production.
Automaker targets are ambitious: Tesla plans 20 million EVs annually by 2030, while General Motors and Mercedes-Benz aim for fully electric lineups by 2035 and 2030, respectively.
However, without accelerated lithium investments, these goals risk falling short, highlighting lithium as a bottleneck in the EV revolution.
Lithium Prices in Flux: Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook
Lithium prices have been subject to volatility, influenced by market dynamics and global supply-demand imbalances. Forecasting long-term prices is particularly challenging due to the lack of futures markets, with most trading occurring in spot markets.
Short-Term Price Trends
The Australian Government’s Office of the Chief Economist predicts a brief recovery for lithium hydroxide prices before a decline by 2026.

In 2025, the annual average price for lithium carbonate is expected to drop to approximately $10,542 per metric ton, down from $12,374 in 2024, per S&P Global Commodity Insight. Meanwhile, surpluses are projected to narrow, with a 33,000-tonne surplus in 2025 compared to 84,000 tonnes in 2024.
Medium- to Long-Term Price Outlook
In the medium term, analysts foresee lithium prices recovering to the marginal cost of production, estimated at $15,000–$20,000 per metric ton. Sustained structural deficits are expected to emerge, driving prices toward this range and potentially higher.
By the fourth quarter of 2024, some experts anticipate prices reaching the low $20s per kilogram. While prices may not revisit the highs of $40,000–$50,000 per tonne, a stable pricing environment is anticipated.
Market Adjustments and Structural Deficits
To balance the market, producers are implementing measures such as supply cuts, project delays, and stockpiling. Companies like Albemarle are reducing supply to address the current oversupply, while high-cost operations, such as Arcadium Lithium’s Mt. Cattlin project in Australia, are being placed into care and maintenance.
As prices stabilize and demand continues to grow, these structural deficits will likely drive further investment and price recovery. Moreover, strong demand will likely push the lithium prices higher in 2025 and beyond.

Navigating Risks and Opportunities in the Lithium Boom
The lithium market is exposed to risks, including volatile energy prices and geopolitical tensions. The reliance on lengthy mine development timelines poses a critical challenge, potentially delaying the supply chain’s ability to meet rising EV demand.
However, the market also offers substantial opportunities. Decarbonization efforts and the global shift to renewable energy sources are creating efficiencies and new markets for low-emissions products. Stable lithium prices and sustained investment could unlock significant growth potential for companies operating in the sector.
The lithium market is at a crossroads. On one hand, rising EV demand and decarbonization goals are driving unprecedented growth opportunities. On the other, supply chain challenges and volatile prices present significant hurdles. Addressing the “great raw material disconnect” through timely investment and strategic planning will be critical to meeting future demand.
Governments and other stakeholders must act decisively to bridge the gap between supply and demand, ensuring the lithium market can support the global energy transition.
The post Lithium Market in 2025 and Beyond: Supply Deficit Looms with $116B Requirement appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
ExxonMobil (XOM) Q3 Earnings Beat: Will AI and Innovation Secure Dividends in a Climate-Conscious Era?
ExxonMobil Corporation (XOM) is reinforcing its role as a dependable choice for income-focused investors, while also increasing its investments in digital and AI technology. It raised its quarterly dividend by 4%, from $0.99 to $1.03 per share.
The increase came after Exxon released its third-quarter 2025 results. The company reported $7.5 billion in profit, or $1.76 per share. It generated $14.8 billion in operating cash flow and $6.3 billion in free cash flow. In the quarter, Exxon returned $9.4 billion to shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks. For the full year, the company expects to buy back about $20 billion worth of its own shares.

A Strong Quarter with Strategic Progress
Year-to-date earnings came in at $22.3 billion, compared to $26.1 billion during the same period in the prior year. Lower crude realizations, weaker chemical margins, and higher operating costs weighed on the results. However, production growth in Guyana and the Permian Basin, alongside structural cost reductions, helped offset some of the decline.
Management emphasized that eight out of ten major project startups planned for 2025 have already been completed, with the remaining two on track.
The company also advanced several long-term strategic initiatives, including:
- Acquiring additional Permian acreage to secure a future low-cost oil supply.
- Expanding into the carbon materials market, supplying inputs for next-generation batteries and manufacturing.
- Increasing computing and data infrastructure to support AI-driven operations.
Executives maintain confidence in meeting — and potentially exceeding — medium-term production targets. Partnerships in high-value fields such as the Upper Zakum reservoir continue to provide scaled output and stable cash flow.
Still, analysts caution that short-term volatility in oil prices could pressure margins. Additionally, large-scale project execution remains a key risk to maintaining momentum.

Energy Products Earnings Rise
AI Moves to the Center of Exxon’s Operating Model
Beyond production growth, Exxon is leaning heavily into artificial intelligence and digital automation as a lever for efficiency and long-term competitiveness.
The company invests around $1.8 billion annually in information and digital systems, with an R&D budget near $1 billion. These investments target:
- Faster seismic data interpretation
- Autonomous and optimized drilling operations
- Predictive equipment maintenance to prevent downtime
- Supply chain and logistics automation
- Refinery process optimization for energy and emissions reduction
Executives estimate that AI-enabled workflows and process standardization could unlock more than $15 billion in structural cost savings by 2027. These savings are designed to self-fund further innovation, accelerating a cycle of operational efficiency.
A major part of this strategy involves simplifying Exxon’s historically complex IT architecture. Leadership has stated that reducing system variation is essential for scaling AI applications consistently across global assets.
For investors, this approach signals a move beyond traditional upstream growth toward a more data-driven industrial model — one designed to function efficiently across volatile commodity cycles.
Exxon’s Net-Zero Plans and the Path to 2050
Exxon continues to position itself for a lower-emission future, but progress remains tied to policy development and technology maturity.

The company has committed to pursuing net-zero emissions in its operated assets by 2050. It plans to invest up to $30 billion in lower-emissions initiatives between 2025 and 2030. These include:
- Achieving net-zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions in its Permian unconventional operations.
- Expanding methane detection programs through satellite and ground-based monitoring.
- Eliminating routine flaring in upstream operations, consistent with the World Bank Zero Routine Flaring initiative.
- Deploying carbon capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen, and lower-carbon fuels.
- Electrifying equipment and integrating cleaner energy sources in operational sites.
- Improving operational efficiency through upgraded maintenance and design practices.
Exxon states that its investments in CCS, hydrogen, biofuels, and lithium could reduce third-party emissions by more than 50 million metric tons annually by 2030. To put that into perspective, that is roughly equal to the annual electricity-related emissions of nearly 10 million U.S. homes.

Even so, company leadership acknowledges that achieving global net-zero goals requires supportive government policy and large-scale energy system transformation. Current global progress falls short of what is needed to stay on a net-zero pathway.
In the news recently, Exxon is challenging California’s climate laws, claiming they violate free speech and impose costly, hard-to-verify reporting. The rules require full emissions disclosure, including Scope 3, and climate-related financial risks.
A win for Exxon could slow similar laws nationwide, while a win for California could set a new standard for corporate climate accountability.
- KNOW MORE: Oil Giants Under Fire: ExxonMobil Fights Climate Laws as TotalEnergies Found Guilty of Greenwashing
Near-Term XOM Stock Outlook
The company continues to prioritize shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, supported by steady output from high-margin assets. At the same time, Exxon is transforming its operations through AI and automation in ways that could reshape its cost structure for decades.

- MUST READ: ExxonMobil’s (XOM Stock) Wild Ride: Gas Discovery, $14M Pollution Fine, and Carbon Storage Push
The post ExxonMobil (XOM) Q3 Earnings Beat: Will AI and Innovation Secure Dividends in a Climate-Conscious Era? appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
Big American Nuclear Revival! Cameco, Brookfield, and Washington’s $80B Reactor Deal
Cameco and Brookfield have joined a major partnership with the U.S. government to build a large fleet of new nuclear reactors. The plan centers on Westinghouse reactor technology. It aims to boost the U.S. power supply and speed up the use of low-carbon electricity for industry and data centers. The agreement is worth at least $80 billion in aggregate project value.
A Historic $80B Bet on Nuclear Power
The partnership commits to mobilizing at least $80 billion to build new Westinghouse reactors across the United States. The U.S. government agreed to help arrange financing and to speed permitting and approvals.
The companies say the program will fund both large reactors (AP1000 class) and smaller designs, such as the AP300 small modular reactor (SMR). The aim is repeatable construction and faster delivery.
Officials said the plan includes near-term purchases of long-lead parts and financing to make projects bankable. The government may also take a financial stake or use profit-sharing mechanisms tied to future project cash flows. That is meant to cut investor risk and attract private capital into long lead-time nuclear projects.
Chris Wright, Secretary for the United States Department of Energy, remarked:
“This historic partnership with America’s leading nuclear company will help unleash President Trump’s grand vision to fully energize America and win the global AI race. President Trump promised a renaissance of nuclear power, and now he is delivering.”
Powerful Partners: Who’s Behind the Deal
Westinghouse provides reactor designs, engineering, and project know-how. Brookfield Asset Management brings large-scale project finance and infrastructure experience.
Cameco, a major uranium producer, supplies fuel expertise and helps secure nuclear fuel supply chains. Together, they combine technology, capital, and raw material access.
The U.S. government acts as a facilitator. It will help line up financing, speed regulatory approvals, and coordinate federal support. The public role aims to reduce early-stage risk so private investors will commit to multi-billion-dollar projects. This public-private model is central to the deal.
What $80 Billion Buys: Scale and Impact
The $80 billion figure is an aggregate investment target. Industry analysts estimate this sum could support about 6 to 10 large reactors. This is based on using 1 GW-class AP1000 units and costs close to current U.S. estimates. The final mix could include several large units plus a set of SMRs, depending on site choices and supply costs.
If the program builds multiple 1 GW reactors, the added capacity could total several thousand megawatts. Each AP1000 unit can produce about 1,100 MW of electricity.

The chart shows how powerful a single AP1000 reactor is compared with other common energy sources. Each unit generates about 1,100 megawatts (MW) of electricity. That’s similar to the output of 2 modern coal plants, 5 large wind farms, or about 11 utility-scale solar farms.
Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the International Energy Agency, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory show that:
- A typical coal plant generates about 600 MW.
- Wind projects average around 200 MW.
- Solar projects average about 100 MW.
Nuclear power stands out for its ability to provide steady, large-scale electricity from one site. This supports industrial growth and helps meet clean energy goals.
Multiple units would offer steady, low-carbon power. Grid operators and large users, like data centers and manufacturing hubs, can count on this power all day and night.
Timing will depend on permitting, supply chain ramp-up, and financing. The partners said they will focus on repeatable designs to shorten schedules.
Still, observers warn that multi-year lead times are likely for most projects. The deal does include near-term actions to buy long-lead items now, which can help start work sooner.
Rebuilding America’s Energy Workforce
Backers say the program will revive large parts of the U.S. industrial base. Reactor builds need heavy forgings, turbines, valves, control systems, and large concrete works. They also need skilled trades such as welders, pipefitters, and nuclear operators.
Estimates show that there will be tens of thousands of construction jobs in peak years. Each completed plant will create thousands of long-term operations jobs.
The plan could also spur investment in domestic component manufacturing. That includes forging mills, heat exchanger factories, and specialized machining facilities.
Allied countries can also supply parts. Local content rules and incentives may boost U.S. production. Proponents say a revived supply chain will reduce cost risks and shorten delivery times over the long run.
Cameco’s shares jumped sharply when the announcement arrived. Investors expect that uranium demand will rise and prices will strengthen if a multi-reactor program moves forward.

Brookfield’s shares also rose, reflecting the firm’s role as a project owner and financier. Market moves show investor appetite for nuclear-related assets when backed by government support.
Fueling the AI Boom With Clean Power
Data centers and AI systems draw increasing electricity. International energy agencies predict that global data center electricity use may more than double by 2030. Large, always-on power sources, such as nuclear, help avoid the output variability of some renewables.
Tech firms looking to scale AI often seek firm, low-carbon power to run data centers reliably. This deal links clean power planning to industrial and digital growth goals.
- SEE MORE: After $102B Quarter Revenue and Record Stock, Google Turns to Nuclear to Power the AI Boom
Policymakers see nuclear as a way to add “firm” low-carbon capacity. The U.S. plans discussed this year aim to boost nuclear capacity significantly by mid-century. This increase will help support electrification and heavy industry. The new agreement positions Westinghouse and its owners to play a major role if the national policy push continues.
But at What Cost?
Large nuclear projects can run into delays and cost overruns. Past builds worldwide show that permitting complexity, supply chain bottlenecks, and labor shortages raise budgets and push schedules.
Critics say that scaling too quickly might cause past issues to reappear. They stress the need for tight control over management, standards, and procurement.
Cost control will matter. Industry watchers note that standardized, repeatable designs and cleared regulatory paths can reduce per-unit costs over time. The deal’s advocates point to near-term purchases of long-lead items and government risk sharing as tools to keep costs down. But the real test will come during project execution and the first wave of concrete pours and module deliveries.
On policy, the partnership came alongside broader international trade and investment talks. Some reports say allied countries, including Japan, may support financing or procurement as part of wider industrial cooperation. That could give projects added capital and technology depth, but it also means geopolitics will shape parts of the supply chain.
A Turning Point for U.S. Nuclear Energy
This $80 billion partnership is a major step toward a new U.S. nuclear building program. It pairs private capital and industry know-how with government support.
If done right, the plan could boost low-carbon electricity, create jobs, and strengthen fuel and component supply chains. If it faces delays or cost overruns, the program could strain public budgets and investor patience.
The coming months will show if the partners can turn headlines into real projects. This means getting to operating reactors that will support a low-carbon, AI-driven economy.
- READ MORE: Project Matador: America’s $90B Nuclear Power Solution for AI, Semiconductors, and Data Centers
The post Big American Nuclear Revival! Cameco, Brookfield, and Washington’s $80B Reactor Deal appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
Canada Leads G7 with $6.4B Critical Minerals Boost to Secure Global Supply Chains
Canada is stepping up in the race for critical minerals. During its G7 Presidency, the country announced a $6.4 billion investment for 26 new projects and partnerships. This aims to strengthen supply chains and reduce reliance on unstable markets. The announcement took place at the G7 Energy and Environment Ministers’ Meeting in Toronto. It marks a new approach for Canada and its allies to ensure clean energy security, advanced manufacturing, and defense.
Canada’s Critical Minerals Alliance Gains Global Momentum
Central to this initiative is the Critical Minerals Production Alliance. This framework connects G7 nations and industry leaders to speed up mineral projects while maintaining strong environmental and labor standards.
Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Tim Hodgson noted that access to critical minerals—like lithium, graphite, nickel, and rare earth elements—supports cleaner, more resilient economies.
He said,
“Canada is moving quickly to secure the critical minerals that power our clean energy future, advanced manufacturing and national defence. Through the Critical Minerals Production Alliance and the G7 Critical Minerals Action Plan, we are mobilizing capital, forging international partnerships and using every tool at our disposal to build resilient, sustainable and secure supply chains. These investments are foundational to Canada’s sovereignty, competitiveness and leadership in the global economy.”
Unlocking $6.4 Billion for 26 Projects
Canada is introducing 26 new investments, partnerships, and policies. These initiatives aim to speed up the production and processing of critical minerals across the country. They will attract public and private capital to boost domestic mining and processing.
Key highlights include:
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Offtake agreements with major producers like Nouveau Monde Graphite and Rio Tinto for graphite and scandium.
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Partnerships with nine allied nations—France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Norway, the U.S., Australia, and Ukraine—to co-invest and secure offtake deals.
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A new Roadmap to Promote Standards-Based Markets for Critical Minerals under the G7 Critical Minerals Action Plan (CMAP).
These actions position Canada as a trusted and transparent supplier of responsibly sourced minerals, enhancing investor confidence in long-term, low-risk clean energy supply chains.
Building a Secure and Responsible Future
Canada’s ties with G7 partners focus on resilience. With rising global competition, clear supply chains are crucial for strategic security.
Under the G7 Critical Minerals Action Plan, member countries aim to diversify production, boost innovation, and ensure fair labor and environmental practices. This plan builds on Japan’s Five-Point Plan for Critical Minerals Security (2023) and Italy’s 2024 initiatives. It also expands cooperation with emerging markets and developing economies.
Canada will use the Defence Production Act to stockpile key minerals, enhancing domestic readiness for defense and industrial needs. This stockpile will:
-
Strengthen Canada’s defense supply chains.
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Protect domestic production from market disruptions.
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Support NATO’s deterrence and defense strategy.
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Boost sovereignty in the Arctic region.
This strategy shows that minerals like nickel, copper, and rare earths are vital for EVs, batteries, national defense, clean technologies, and digital infrastructure.

Projects Driving Canada’s Mineral Future
The newly funded projects span Quebec and Ontario, targeting high-demand minerals for EV batteries, semiconductors, and renewable technologies.
Flagship projects include:
- Northern Graphite Corp. – Graphite mine near Montreal, Quebec.
- Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. – Matawinie graphite project, Quebec.
- Vianode – Synthetic graphite and anode materials facility in St. Thomas, Ontario.
- Torngat Metals Ltd. – Strange Lake rare earth elements project, Quebec.
- Ucore Rare Metals Inc. – Rare earth processing plant in Kingston, Ontario.
- Rio Tinto Group – Scandium production facility in Sorel-Tracy, Quebec.
Additional infrastructure investments in Chibougamau, Kuujjuaq, and Eeyou Istchee James Bay (Quebec) will improve logistics and supply chains for copper, lithium, nickel, and cobalt.
These developments will boost local economies, create jobs, and strengthen G7 supply chain resilience while supporting Canada’s clean energy transition.
Mobilizing Global Capital for Clean Energy Security
G7 partners agree that responsible mining needs immediate, scaled investment to tackle issues like permitting delays and price volatility. The G7 Critical Minerals Action Plan calls for better collaboration among governments, export credit agencies, and development finance institutions (DFIs) to unlock capital and lower investment risks.
This strategy aims to attract private financing for projects meeting high environmental and ethical standards, fostering transparent, market-based systems for mineral trade.
Moreover, the G7 seeks to help emerging market economies build responsible mining industries through better infrastructure, governance, and investment frameworks.
These partnerships will align with global initiatives like the G20 Compact with Africa, ensuring mineral development fosters local value creation and community participation.
Strengthening Canada’s Leadership in a Critical Decade
Furthermore, Canada is preparing for major international events, including the IEA Ministerial Meeting and the PDAC Conference in 2026. These will highlight Canada’s growing role in achieving a clean energy future.
By linking national defense, economic security, and clean energy goals, the Critical Minerals Production Alliance shows how cooperation can counter practices that disrupt mineral trade and threaten global supply stability.
The country’s $9 billion defense investment plan, announced earlier this year, supports this strategy by enhancing domestic capabilities while promoting sustainable development.
Canada anchors North America’s critical minerals growth
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), North America holds a major share of the world’s essential mineral reserves. The United States has large deposits of lithium, copper, and rare earth elements. Canada is rich in graphite, lithium, and nickel, while Mexico has strong copper reserves.
Together, these countries play an important role in global mining. The region accounts for about 10% of the world’s copper output and 9% of rare earth production. In 2024, the United States approved its first lithium mine in more than 60 years, marking a big step toward securing a local supply.
By 2040, the IEA expects the value of North America’s energy minerals to grow to around USD 30 billion for mining and USD 14 billion for refining. Mining growth will mainly come from copper in the United States and Mexico, and from lithium and nickel in Canada.
For refining, the region could make up about 4% of the global market, led by copper and lithium refining in the United States and copper and nickel refining in Canada.

A Unified Path Toward Resilient Supply Chains
The G7 stands united against global challenges. Canada’s leadership shows that securing critical minerals goes beyond extraction. It emphasizes trust, transparency, and long-term sustainability.
By promoting responsible mining, mobilizing capital, and ensuring traceable supply chains, Canada and its allies are paving the way for a cleaner, more secure industrial future.
The Critical Minerals Production Alliance demonstrates that countries can work together. By collaborating, they build strong systems that support economic growth, protect the environment, and enhance national security. They also help power future technologies.
The post Canada Leads G7 with $6.4B Critical Minerals Boost to Secure Global Supply Chains appeared first on Carbon Credits.
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