For decades, oil was the backbone of global transport. It powered nearly every vehicle, pushing oil demand ever higher. Infrastructure significantly grew around extraction, refining, and distribution. But with mounting concerns over emissions and climate change, the search for cleaner alternatives gained momentum. Electric vehicles (EVs) have emerged as a game changer in this shift.
IEA recently published its Global EV Outlook 2025, where it has predicted,
- By 2030, EVs are set to replace more than 5 million barrels of oil per day (mb/d) globally, with China’s expanding EV fleet making up half of that impact.
Let’s deep dive into this report and understand how the rise of EVs is impacting global oil demand.
The Rise of EVs and Its Impact on Global Oil Demand
By the end of 2024, the global electric car fleet reached nearly 58 million, more than triple the number in 2021. These EVs now make up about 4% of the global passenger car fleet.
The trend is strongest in China, where roughly 1 in 10 cars is electric. In Europe, the ratio is 1 in 20, but growing fast.
The UK, the second-largest car market in Europe, saw EVs take nearly 30% of new car sales in 2024. This rise was driven by the new Vehicle Emissions Trading Scheme, which required 22% of new car registrations to be battery electric or hydrogen fuel cell models.
With flexible credit borrowing allowed, manufacturers achieved nearly 20% EV sales. Norway led with near-total electrification. 88% of new cars sold were fully electric, and another 3% were plug-in hybrids.
As a result, Norway’s oil demand from the road fell 12% from 2021 to 2024. Denmark also saw a big jump, with EVs reaching 56% of new car sales in 2024 and nearly 100,000 units sold.
Meanwhile, Denmark is also seeing strong progress. In the latest figures, the share of electric cars jumped by 10 percentage points, reaching 56%, with nearly 100,000 EVs sold.

Oil Demand Drops as EV Fleet Grows Rapidly
Surge in EVs on roads came heavy on the oil industry. IEA says that electric vehicles slashed oil demand by over 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024.
It was a steep 30% jump from 2023, and the present figures are nearly equal to all the oil Japan currently uses for transportation.
Passenger cars and small vans classified as light-duty vehicles (LDVs) drive most of this shift. Today, they account for 80% of the oil displaced by EVs. By 2030, their share will slightly drop to 77% as electric trucks and buses gain traction.
This is because of the rapidly evolving batteries and stronger charging infrastructure, these heavy-duty vehicles will likely displace nearly 1 mb/d of oil within the decade.
EVs Cut Costs and Boost Energy Security
IEA analysts highlighted that even if global oil prices fall to $40 per barrel, EVs remain cost-effective especially with home charging. This way drivers can continue saving money by switching to electric vehicles.
In China, fast public charging costs about twice as much as charging at home. Yet, EVs still offer better fuel savings than gas-powered cars. As more people choose EVs, countries reduce their oil use and become less vulnerable to price shocks. This shift not only saves money but also strengthens national energy security.
Strong Policies Keep EV Adoption on Track
Although trade tensions, slow economic growth, and oil price drops may hurt overall car sales, these issues affect the market size more than the EV share. In China, steady government support and affordable EV prices continue to drive sales forward.
Meanwhile, in Europe, even though EVs cost more than traditional cars, long-term policies and past crisis responses help keep the market moving.
Additionally, Norway planned to raise taxes on traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) cars and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) from April. This was meant to boost EV sales and help the country reach its goal of 100% zero-emission car sales by the end of 2025.
The 2025 EV outlook shows strong momentum. Despite economic uncertainty, EVs continue to grow thanks to smart policies, lower battery costs, and better infrastructure. As countries push for cleaner transportation, EVs are helping the world move toward a more sustainable, low-carbon future.
With over 58 million electric cars already on the road by the end of 2024—and more to come—the transition is well underway. This shift not only transforms the oil market but also puts the world on a clearer, more energy-secure path forward.
Global Oil Demand: What the Forecasts Say
We found the latest oil demand forecast in the International Energy Forum’s monthly comparative analysis of the oil market report. It highlights the following:
OPEC
OPEC expects oil demand to grow by around 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in both 2025 and 2026. Almost all this growth will come from non-OECD countries, where demand is expected to rise by 1.2 mb/d each year. In contrast, OECD countries will see only a small increase of 0.1 mb/d annually.
EIA
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently increased its 2025 forecast by 0.1 mb/d compared to last month. It now expects demand to rise by 1.0 mb/d next year. However, this is 0.4 mb/d lower than the estimate made in January 2025. For 2026, the EIA sees demand rising more slowly, by 0.9 mb/d.
IEA
The IEA has a more cautious view. It expects global oil demand to grow by 0.7 mb/d in 2025, even though OECD demand may fall by about 120,000 barrels per day. For 2026, the IEA sees demand increasing by 0.8 mb/d. According to its latest data, average yearly demand growth between 2022 and 2024 was just 0.3 mb/d.

To simplify it, the gap between the highest and lowest global oil demand forecasts is 0.6 mb/d for 2025 and 0.5 mb/d for 2026. These differences highlight the uncertainty that still surrounds future oil demand.
Furthermore, as electric vehicles gain popularity, governments are starting to feel the financial impact. Fuel taxes, which have been a key source of public funding for roads and transport, are shrinking. In 2022 alone, the global shift to EVs resulted in an estimated $9 billion drop in fuel tax revenues.
The post How EV Adoption is Reshaping Global Oil Demand: IEA’s 2025 Outlook and 2030 Forecast appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
Finding Nature Based Solutions in Your Supply Chain
Carbon Footprint
How Climate Change Is Raising the Cost of Living
Americans are paying more for insurance, electricity, taxes, and home repairs every year. What many people may not realize is that climate change is already one of the drivers behind those rising costs.
For many households, climate change is no longer just an environmental issue. It is becoming a cost-of-living issue. While climate impacts like melting glaciers and shrinking polar ice can feel distant from everyday life, the financial effects are already showing up in monthly budgets across the country.
Today, a larger share of household income is consumed by fixed costs such as housing, insurance, utilities, and healthcare. (3) Climate change and climate inaction are adding pressure to many of those expenses through higher disaster recovery costs, rising energy demand, infrastructure repairs, and increased insurance risk.
The goal of this article is to help connect climate change to the everyday financial realities people already experience. Regardless of where someone stands on climate policy, it is important to recognize that climate change is already increasing costs for households, businesses, and taxpayers across the United States.
More conservative estimates indicate that the average household has experienced an increase of about $400 per year from observed climate change, while less conservative estimates suggest an increase of $900.(1) Those in more disaster-prone regions of the country face disproportionate costs, with some households experiencing climate-related costs averaging $1,300 per year.(1) Another study found that climate adaptation costs driven by climate change have already consumed over 3% of personal income in the U.S. since 2015.(9) By the end of the century, housing units could spend an additional $5,600 on adaptation costs.(1)
Whether we realize it or not, Americans are already paying for climate change through higher insurance premiums, energy costs, taxes, and infrastructure repairs. These growing expenses are often referred to as climate adaptation costs.
Without meaningful climate action, these costs are expected to continue rising. Choosing not to invest in climate action is also choosing to spend more on climate adaptation.
Here are a few ways climate change is already increasing the cost of living:
- Higher insurance costs from more frequent and severe storms
- Higher energy use during longer and hotter summers
- Higher electricity rates tied to storm recovery and grid upgrades
- Higher government spending and taxpayer-funded disaster recovery costs
The real debate is not whether climate change costs money. Americans are already paying for it. The question is where we want those costs to go. Should we invest more in climate action to help reduce future climate adaptation costs, or continue paying growing recovery and adaptation expenses in everyday life?
How Climate Change Is Increasing Insurance Costs
There is one industry that closely tracks the financial impact of natural disasters: insurance. Insurance companies are focused on assessing risk, estimating damages, and collecting enough revenue to cover losses and remain financially stable.
Comparing the 20-year periods 1980–1999 and 2000–2019, climate-related disasters increased 83% globally from 3,656 events to 6,681 events. The average time between billion-dollar disasters dropped from 82 days during the 1980s to 16 days during the last 10 years, and in 2025 the average time between disasters fell to just 10 days. (6)
According to the reinsurance firm Munich Re, total economic losses from natural disasters in 2024 exceeded $320 billion globally, nearly 40% higher than the decade-long annual average. Average annual inflation-adjusted costs more than quadrupled from $22.6 billion per year in the 1980s to $102 billion per year in the 2010s. Costs increased further to an average of $153.2 billion annually during 2020–2024, representing another 50% increase over the 2010s. (6)
In the United States, billion-dollar weather and climate disasters have also increased significantly. The average number of billion-dollar disasters per year has grown from roughly three annually during the 1980s to 19 annually over the last decade. In 2023 and 2024, the U.S. recorded 28 and 27 billion-dollar disasters respectively, both setting new records. (6)
The growing impact of climate change is one reason insurance costs continue to rise. “There are two things that drive insurance loss costs, which is the frequency of events and how much they cost,” said Robert Passmore, assistant vice president of personal lines at the Property Casualty Insurers Association of America. “So, as these events become more frequent, that’s definitely going to have an impact.” (8)
After adjusting for inflation, insurance costs have steadily increased over time. From 2000 to 2020, insurance costs consistently grew faster than the Consumer Price Index due to rising rebuilding costs and weather-related losses.(3) Between 2020 and 2023 alone, the average home insurance premium increased from $75 to $360 due to climate change impacts, with disaster-prone regions experiencing especially steep increases.(1) Since 2015, homeowners in some regions affected by more extreme weather have seen home insurance costs increased by nearly 57%.(1) Some insurers have also limited or stopped offering coverage in high-risk areas.(7)
For many families, rising insurance costs are no longer occasional financial burdens. They are becoming recurring monthly expenses tied directly to growing climate risk.
How Rising Temperatures Increase Household Energy Costs

The financial impacts of climate change extend beyond insurance. Rising temperatures are also changing how much energy Americans use and how utilities plan for future electricity demand.
Between 1950 and 2010, per capita electricity use increased 10-fold, though usage has flattened or slightly declined since 2012 due to more efficient appliances and LED lighting. (3) A significant share of increased energy demand comes from cooling needs associated with higher temperatures.
Over the last 20 years, the United States has experienced increasing Cooling Degree Days (CDD) and decreasing Heating Degree Days (HDD). Nearly all counties have become warmer over the past three decades, with some areas experiencing several hundred additional cooling degree days, equivalent to roughly one additional degree of warmth on most days. (1) This trend reflects a warming climate where air conditioning demand is increasing while heating demand generally declines. (4)
As temperatures continue rising, households are expected to spend more on cooling than they save on heating. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that by 2050, national Heating Degree Days will be 11% lower while Cooling Degree Days will be 28% higher than 2021 levels. Cooling demand is projected to rise 2.5 times faster than heating demand declines. (5)
These projections come from energy and infrastructure experts planning for future electricity demand and grid capacity needs. Utilities and grid operators are already preparing for higher peak summer electricity loads caused by rising temperatures. (5)
Longer and hotter summers also affect how homes and buildings are designed. Buildings constructed for past climate conditions may require upgrades such as larger air conditioning systems, stronger insulation, and improved ventilation to remain comfortable and energy efficient in the future. (10)
For many households, this means higher monthly utility bills and potentially higher long-term home improvement costs as temperatures continue to rise.
How Climate Change Affects Electricity Rates
On an inflation-adjusted basis, average U.S. residential electricity rates are slightly lower today than they were 50 years ago. (2) However, climate-related damage to utility infrastructure is creating new upward pressure on electricity costs.
Electric utilities rely heavily on above-ground poles, wires, transformers, and substations that can be damaged by hurricanes, storms, floods, and wildfires. Repairing and upgrading this infrastructure often requires substantial investment.
As a result, utilities are increasing electricity rates in response to wildfire and hurricane events to fund infrastructure repairs and future mitigation efforts. (1) The average cumulative increase in per-household electricity expenditures due to climate-related price changes is approximately $30. (1)
While this increase may appear modest today, utility costs are expected to rise further as climate-related infrastructure damage becomes more frequent and severe.
How Climate Disasters Increase Government Spending and Taxes
Extreme weather events also damage public infrastructure, including roads, schools, bridges, airports, water systems, and emergency services infrastructure. Recovery and rebuilding costs are often funded through taxpayer dollars at the federal, state, and local levels.
The average annual government cost tied to climate-related disaster recovery is estimated at nearly $142 per household. (1) States that frequently experience hurricanes, wildfires, tornadoes, or flooding can face even higher public recovery costs.
These expenses affect taxpayers whether they personally experience a disaster or not. Climate-related recovery spending can increase pressure on public budgets, emergency management systems, and infrastructure funding nationwide.
Reducing Climate Costs Through Climate Action
While this article focuses on the growing financial costs associated with climate change, the issue is not only about money for many people. It is also about recognizing our environmental impact and taking responsibility for reducing it in order to help preserve a healthy planet for future generations.
While individuals alone cannot solve climate change, collective action can help reduce future climate adaptation costs over time.
For those interested in taking action, there are three important steps:
- Estimate your carbon footprint to better understand the emissions connected to your lifestyle and activities.
- Create a plan to gradually reduce emissions through energy efficiency, cleaner technologies, and more sustainable choices.
- Address remaining emissions by supporting verified carbon reduction projects through carbon credits.
Carbon credits are one of the most cost-effective tools available for climate action because they help fund projects that generate verified emission reductions at scale. Supporting global emission reduction efforts can help reduce the long-term impacts and costs associated with climate change.
Visit Terrapass to learn more about carbon footprints, carbon credits, and climate action solutions.
The post How Climate Change Is Raising the Cost of Living appeared first on Terrapass.
Carbon Footprint
Carbon credit project stewardship: what happens after credit issuance
A carbon credit purchase is not a transaction that closes at issuance. The credit may be retired, the certificate filed, and the reporting box ticked. But on the ground, in the forest, in the field, and in the community, the work continues. It endures for years. In many cases, for decades.
![]()
-
Greenhouse Gases9 months ago
Guest post: Why China is still building new coal – and when it might stop
-
Climate Change9 months ago
Guest post: Why China is still building new coal – and when it might stop
-
Greenhouse Gases2 years ago嘉宾来稿:满足中国增长的用电需求 光伏加储能“比新建煤电更实惠”
-
Climate Change2 years ago嘉宾来稿:满足中国增长的用电需求 光伏加储能“比新建煤电更实惠”
-
Climate Change2 years ago
Bill Discounting Climate Change in Florida’s Energy Policy Awaits DeSantis’ Approval
-
Renewable Energy7 months agoSending Progressive Philanthropist George Soros to Prison?
-
Carbon Footprint2 years agoUS SEC’s Climate Disclosure Rules Spur Renewed Interest in Carbon Credits
-
Greenhouse Gases10 months ago
嘉宾来稿:探究火山喷发如何影响气候预测

