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For decades, oil was the backbone of global transport. It powered nearly every vehicle, pushing oil demand ever higher. Infrastructure significantly grew around extraction, refining, and distribution. But with mounting concerns over emissions and climate change, the search for cleaner alternatives gained momentum. Electric vehicles (EVs) have emerged as a game changer in this shift.

IEA recently published its Global EV Outlook 2025, where it has predicted,

  • By 2030, EVs are set to replace more than 5 million barrels of oil per day (mb/d) globally, with China’s expanding EV fleet making up half of that impact.

Let’s deep dive into this report and understand how the rise of EVs is impacting global oil demand.

The Rise of EVs and Its Impact on Global Oil Demand

By the end of 2024, the global electric car fleet reached nearly 58 million, more than triple the number in 2021. These EVs now make up about 4% of the global passenger car fleet.

The trend is strongest in China, where roughly 1 in 10 cars is electric. In Europe, the ratio is 1 in 20, but growing fast.

The UK, the second-largest car market in Europe, saw EVs take nearly 30% of new car sales in 2024. This rise was driven by the new Vehicle Emissions Trading Scheme, which required 22% of new car registrations to be battery electric or hydrogen fuel cell models.

With flexible credit borrowing allowed, manufacturers achieved nearly 20% EV sales. Norway led with near-total electrification. 88% of new cars sold were fully electric, and another 3% were plug-in hybrids.

As a result, Norway’s oil demand from the road fell 12% from 2021 to 2024. Denmark also saw a big jump, with EVs reaching 56% of new car sales in 2024 and nearly 100,000 units sold.

Meanwhile, Denmark is also seeing strong progress. In the latest figures, the share of electric cars jumped by 10 percentage points, reaching 56%, with nearly 100,000 EVs sold.

EV sales
Source: IEA

Oil Demand Drops as EV Fleet Grows Rapidly

Surge in EVs on roads came heavy on the oil industry. IEA says that electric vehicles slashed oil demand by over 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024.

It was a steep 30% jump from 2023, and the present figures are nearly equal to all the oil Japan currently uses for transportation.

Passenger cars and small vans classified as light-duty vehicles (LDVs) drive most of this shift. Today, they account for 80% of the oil displaced by EVs. By 2030, their share will slightly drop to 77% as electric trucks and buses gain traction.

This is because of the rapidly evolving batteries and stronger charging infrastructure, these heavy-duty vehicles will likely displace nearly 1 mb/d of oil within the decade.

EVs Cut Costs and Boost Energy Security

IEA analysts highlighted that even if global oil prices fall to $40 per barrel, EVs remain cost-effective especially with home charging. This way drivers can continue saving money by switching to electric vehicles.

In China, fast public charging costs about twice as much as charging at home. Yet, EVs still offer better fuel savings than gas-powered cars. As more people choose EVs, countries reduce their oil use and become less vulnerable to price shocks. This shift not only saves money but also strengthens national energy security.

Strong Policies Keep EV Adoption on Track

Although trade tensions, slow economic growth, and oil price drops may hurt overall car sales, these issues affect the market size more than the EV share. In China, steady government support and affordable EV prices continue to drive sales forward.

Meanwhile, in Europe, even though EVs cost more than traditional cars, long-term policies and past crisis responses help keep the market moving.

Additionally, Norway planned to raise taxes on traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) cars and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) from April. This was meant to boost EV sales and help the country reach its goal of 100% zero-emission car sales by the end of 2025.

The 2025 EV outlook shows strong momentum. Despite economic uncertainty, EVs continue to grow thanks to smart policies, lower battery costs, and better infrastructure. As countries push for cleaner transportation, EVs are helping the world move toward a more sustainable, low-carbon future.

With over 58 million electric cars already on the road by the end of 2024—and more to come—the transition is well underway. This shift not only transforms the oil market but also puts the world on a clearer, more energy-secure path forward.

Global Oil Demand: What the Forecasts Say

We found the latest oil demand forecast in the International Energy Forum’s monthly comparative analysis of the oil market report. It highlights the following:

OPEC

OPEC expects oil demand to grow by around 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in both 2025 and 2026. Almost all this growth will come from non-OECD countries, where demand is expected to rise by 1.2 mb/d each year. In contrast, OECD countries will see only a small increase of 0.1 mb/d annually.

EIA

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently increased its 2025 forecast by 0.1 mb/d compared to last month. It now expects demand to rise by 1.0 mb/d next year. However, this is 0.4 mb/d lower than the estimate made in January 2025. For 2026, the EIA sees demand rising more slowly, by 0.9 mb/d.

IEA

The IEA has a more cautious view. It expects global oil demand to grow by 0.7 mb/d in 2025, even though OECD demand may fall by about 120,000 barrels per day. For 2026, the IEA sees demand increasing by 0.8 mb/d. According to its latest data, average yearly demand growth between 2022 and 2024 was just 0.3 mb/d.

oil demand
Source: IEF

To simplify it, the gap between the highest and lowest global oil demand forecasts is 0.6 mb/d for 2025 and 0.5 mb/d for 2026. These differences highlight the uncertainty that still surrounds future oil demand.

Furthermore, as electric vehicles gain popularity, governments are starting to feel the financial impact. Fuel taxes, which have been a key source of public funding for roads and transport, are shrinking. In 2022 alone, the global shift to EVs resulted in an estimated $9 billion drop in fuel tax revenues.

The post How EV Adoption is Reshaping Global Oil Demand: IEA’s 2025 Outlook and 2030 Forecast appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Carbon Footprint

Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets

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The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.

The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.

This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.

The two definitions, in plain English

Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.

Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.

The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.

What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says

The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).

For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.

For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.

A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.

When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)

Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:

  • The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
  • The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
  • The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
  • It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.

The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.

When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.

The procurement and supplier engagement question

Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.

To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.

The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.

Choosing the right tool for the right target

A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.

The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.

If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.

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Carbon Footprint

Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide

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Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.

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Carbon Footprint

Deforestation in Malawi: causes and solutions

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Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?

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