Global warming has hit “a milestone” as average temperatures have exceeded the critical 1.5C threshold for the longest period yet, European scientists warned on Wednesday.
According to the EU’s Earth observation service Copernicus, 2025 ranks as the third-warmest year on record, behind 2023 and 2024, with global temperatures averaging more than the Paris Agreement’s most ambitious limit for the first time over a three-year period.
“Exceeding a three-year average of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels is a milestone none of us wished to reach,” said Mauro Facchini, head of the Unit for Earth Observation in the European Commission.
Samantha Burgess, deputy director at Copernicus, said the last three years had been “exceptionally warm” as a result of the record amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, primarily caused by burning fossil fuels, as well as record ocean heat, fuelled in part by the El Niño weather pattern.
“New era of climate extremes” as global warming fuels devastating impacts in 2025
In 2025, global temperatures were 1.47 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, slightly cooler than in 2023 and 0.13C lower than in 2024, the hottest year on record, according to the Copernicus analysis.
Temperatures in tropical regions in 2025 were lower than in 2023 and 2024, influenced by a weak La Niña, which is when surface waters in the Pacific Ocean are cooler than usual.
Paris pact’s 1.5C goal to be breached this decade
When governments adopted the 2015 Paris Agreement, they committed to holding the increase in the global average temperature to “well below 2C above pre-industrial levels” and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5C.
Scientists with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the World Meteorological Organisation say that temperature increases should be measured over 20-year periods, meaning that a one-year or a three-year breach does not mean the Paris targets have been missed.
But the European agency expects that, based on the current rate of warming, the world will reach the threshold of long-term warming above 1.5C before the end of 2029, over a decade earlier than scientists had predicted at the time the Paris accord was signed.
“The expectation was that emissions would be reduced more rapidly than what we’ve observed over the last decade,” said Burgess. “That’s really the big difference between where we thought the world would look back in 2015, versus where it looks now at the beginning of 2026.”
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Researcher Freddie Daley talks to Climate Home News about how fossil energy giants are using green technologies as a way to shore up their power -
The battle over a global energy transition is on between petro-states and electro-states
Countries that depend on fossil fuels are working to slow down the shift to clean energy, while others are positioning themselves to benefit from the growth of renewables
For the first time last year, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres conceded that a “temporary overshoot” of the 1.5C warming threshold was inevitable, starting in the early 2030s at the latest. He told global leaders gathered at the COP30 summit in November that failure to curb global heating amounted to “moral failure and deadly negligence”.
Commenting on the Copernicus findings, Helen Clarkson, CEO of the US-based Climate Group, which builds networks working for net-zero emissions, said the average of 1.5C of warming over the past three years showed “the warnings of scientists are becoming a dangerous reality”. Governments that do not act to cut emissions are putting their economic security at risk, she emphasised.
“Too many leaders are propping up fossil fuels, blocking people and businesses from accessing the cost savings and benefits of cheap, clean energy. But we can break this trend: accelerate the transition to renewables, electric cars and clean electrification,” she added.
Antarctic saw hottest year on record
Scientists have warned that, while the temperature limit is not a cliff edge, every additional fraction of a degree of warming increases the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts and storms, triggering severe impacts.
In 2025, polar regions experienced significant temperature anomalies, with the Antarctic seeing its hottest year on record and the Arctic its second-warmest, the Copernicus analysis found. That partly offset the less extreme temperatures observed in tropical regions last year.
Global warming is causing the world’s ice caps to melt at an accelerating pace. In February 2025, the combined sea ice cover from both poles fell to its lowest value since at least the start of satellite observations in the late 1970s, the EU agency said.
Burgess expects that 2026 will be among the top five warmest years, with temperatures comparable to 2025, but she noted it is too early to tell how natural climate cycles will develop over the coming months and affect human-made global warming.
The longer-term trend, however, is for continued rises in temperatures, she said.
“When we look at the continued rate of emissions from countries around the world, the reality is, unfortunately, that the last three years we have experienced – when we look back in five years’ time – will be cooler than average rather than continue to be exceptional,” she told journalists.
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Global warming topped key 1.5C limit over last three years, EU scientists say
Climate Change
“Sink or swim”: WA Gov hugely underestimating decline in regional gas demand while sleeping on green exports, new report finds
PERTH, Tuesday 13 October 2026 — A new report from Greenpeace Australia Pacific and Springmount Advisory reveals green commodity exports are an untapped economic opportunity for Western Australia in a declining Asian gas market, while offering a genuine solution for decarbonising Asia.
From Gas to Green: Building Western Australia’s Future State is a comprehensive analysis of the declining gas market in Asia, and the untapped economic opportunity for WA to become a global leader in green commodity exports while driving the regional shift away from fossil fuels.
The report offers key recommendations for the WA Government to support regional decarbonisation through an orderly phase out of gas exports in favour of green iron and other green exports. It comes as global climate leaders from across business, politics and advocacy prepare to meet for the Global Citizen Now: Perth event focused on decarbonising WA.
Key findings:
- Gas demand is falling across WA’s core markets in Asia: Gas demand fell in 2025 and is projected to continue to decline, driven by a combination of global geopolitical factors and domestic concerns.
- Policy shifts in key markets since the war on Iran now prioritise renewables and nuclear over gas: Japan, South Korea and China have legislated energy plans that prioritise renewables and nuclear over gas.
- New WA gas would arrive in a saturated, uncertain Asian market filled with cheaper gas: The US is now the world’s largest liquefied gas producer and plans to double its capacity as it also targets Asian markets.
- Green commodities offer a real solution to sustain WA’s economy: WA can lead Australia’s green commodity exports, which by 2060 could be worth almost a trillion dollars.
- Exporting more WA gas is likely to delay or impede Asia decarbonisation: Despite claims by the gas industry, there is no evidence that WA gas is displacing coal in Asia, and in fact diverts resources from genuine decarbonisation options.
Geoff Bice, WA Campaign Lead at Greenpeace Australia Pacific said: “As our export partners in Asia shift away from expensive and polluting gas, the WA Government has a golden opportunity to pivot our economy to green exports, like green iron, which is the most effective way to help our region to decarbonise.
“The writing is on the wall: gas is in decline, renewables are our future. In this context, it makes zero sense for the government to encourage high risk projects like Woodside’s reckless Browse gas proposal at Scott Reef.
“This report clearly shows that the WA Government faces a choice: sink or swim. They can either allow the gas industry to keep ripping off West Australians and continue propping up its decline, or choose the path that will deliver enormous benefits to the state and the world by becoming a leader in the rapidly expanding green economy.”
Tom Quinn, Managing Director of Springmount Advisory: “Western Australia prospers when it looks to the future and builds for future demand. Twenty years from now, what the world needs is green commodities made using WAs abundant renewable resources. Just like it did with iron ore in the 1950s and gas in the 1970s, WA should look to the future and build what the world will need, not sunsetting industries like gas that are already past their peak.”
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Media contact
Kate O’Callaghan on 0406 231 892 or kate.ocallaghan@greenpeace.org
Lucy Keller on 0491 135 308 or lucy.keller@greenpeace.org
A report from Greenpeace Australia Pacific and Springmount Advisory reveals the untapped green economic opportunity for Western Australia in a declining Asian gas market, which also offers a genuine solution for decarbonisation in Asia.
Is Western Australia clinging to a fading gas industry while a thriving green future passes it by? As major Asian trading partners rapidly pivot away from volatile gas imports toward cheap solar and battery storage, this report exposes a high-stakes choice: risk becoming stranded in an oversupplied fossil fuel market, or harness WA’s unmatched sun and wind to lead the global clean energy transition.
Summary
From Gas to Green: Building Western Australia’s Future State reveals that Western Australia (WA) faces a critical juncture as falling Asian gas demand, geopolitical gas supply volatility and accelerating renewable energy deployment undermine the long-term economic viability of gas exports. By harnessing its world-class wind and solar resources, the report demonstrates that WA can execute an orderly phase-out of gas and pioneer a green commodity export economy that could generate $987 billion in economic value by 2060, create 24,000 ongoing jobs, and drive a 9.6% reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions.
Key Findings
- Gas demand is falling in Asia – WA can no longer rely on gas exports: Gas demand in core Asian markets fell in 2025 and is projected to continue to decline in 2026. Legislated energy plans in Japan, South Korea, and China now prioritise renewables and nuclear over gas.
- Asia is increasing renewables, importing gas just gets in the way: Evidence from markets like Thailand suggests that gas imports are increasingly crowding out cheaper renewable energy investments and battery storage rather than displacing coal, locking in more emissions over time.
- Green commodities offer a real solution to decarbonise Asia – this is a major win for WA: With world-class renewables, WA can lead Australia’s green commodity exports, which by 2060 could be worth almost a trillion dollars ($987 billion) and support a genuine 9.6% reduction in global emissions.
Recommendations to WA government
Recommendation 1: Plan an orderly gas phase-out aligned with a trading partner pivot plan
Implement a managed, orderly phase-out of gas exports aligned with trading partners’ decarbonisation pathways, rather than waiting for demand to collapse, by:
- Developing and implementing a staged phase-out of gas facilities aligned with feedstock supply expiry or typical end of facility lifespans.
- Committing to no new gas development for gas expansion, including Browse and Kimberley fields.
- Developing new, reciprocal trade relationships with existing gas trade partners, structured to progressively replace gas exports with green commodities – integrated with recommendation 2.
Recommendation 2: Develop an integrated green commodity export strategy, positioning WA as a global green iron manufacturing hub
Establish an integrated green commodity export strategy that immediately prioritises green iron development, positioning WA as a global green iron manufacturing hub, by:
- Committing to green commodity export targets to give industry and investors a clear demand signal.
- Prioritising green iron as the lead sector within the broader green commodity strategy, given WA’s iron ore endowment and first-mover potential.
Recommendation 3: Reject false solutions such as carbon dumping (CCS) and blue hydrogen
Reject carbon dumping (also described as carbon capture and storage, or CCS) and blue hydrogen as viable decarbonisation technologies, and prioritise green hydrogen and proven renewables for clean energy and fuel production by:
- Excluding blue hydrogen projects (and CCS-dependent projects) from all government support programs.
- Requiring existing hydrogen-based production (including ammonia, methanol, synthetic fuels) to have clear, near-term transition timelines to switch to green hydrogen production.
What you can do
Together, we can push for a prosperous green future.
You can help by:
- Sending an email to Environment Minister Murray Watt and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, calling on them to reject Browse.
- Sharing this story to help more Australians understand what’s at stake.
- Encouraging your friends and family to take action.
REPORT: “From Gas to Green” Building Western Australia’s Future State
Cleaner cooking projects in the UN carbon market will have to set aside a share of their credits to insure against the risk that the trees they save are lost to fire, drought or logging, after the market’s regulator rejected calls to exempt the sector.
The requirement is part of a new rulebook that the Paris Agreement carbon market regulator – the Article 6.4 Supervisory Body – approved last Friday for programmes that aim to cut emissions by distributing new and cleaner cookstoves in regions that still burn wood or charcoal for cooking.
These are the UN mechanism’s first rulebooks for cookstoves, one of the carbon market’s most popular credit types and also one of its most criticised for overstating climate benefits.
They consist of two methodologies: one for programmes that aim to cut greenhouse gas emissions by distributing more efficient cookstoves that burn less wood or charcoal, and a separate methodology for projects shifting households to lower-emissions cookers running on electricity or liquid petroleum gas (LPG).
Mkhuthazi Steleki, the South African chair of the Supervisory Body, said “this decision gives cleaner cooking projects a new pathway under the UN carbon market, with clear rules to ensure that each credit represents a real and credible emission reduction”.
Industry and NGOs lobby to weaken UN carbon credit rules in “coordinated” push
In copycat submissions and a private briefing to government officials, the groups have opposed a proposal to tighten safeguards for emissions offsetsLaunch of Africa Energy Bank delayed again in blow to oil and gas hopes
Repeated delays are raising questions about the bank’s momentum and whether it can mobilise investment to finance Africa’s oil and gas ambitions in an era
