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According to DNV’s 2025 Energy Transition Outlook, North America is on a slow but steady path toward a low-carbon future. The forecast shows fossil fuels will fall from 72% of final energy demand in 2024 to 45% by 2050, and further to 31% by 2060.

While the U.S. has seen policy shifts and slower progress due to changing political priorities, Canada’s energy policies remain relatively stable. Together, the two nations continue to move toward decarbonization, driven by clean technology investments and rising public support for sustainable energy.

fossil fuel North America
Source: DNV report

U.S. Faces Fuel Security and Supply Chain Hurdles

The U.S. nuclear sector faces a different challenge — fuel dependency. As of 2023, the U.S. imported 99% of its uranium, with nearly one-third sourced from Russia, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan — countries with complicated diplomatic relations.

Developing a domestic nuclear fuel production capability has become a priority. The DOE is investing in research to expand uranium mining, enrichment, and HALEU production. These efforts are crucial for the future success of the SMR program and national energy security.

Until SMRs become commercially viable in the early 2030s, U.S. nuclear capacity growth will primarily come from reactor life extensions and the reopening of mothballed plants, such as Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania.

Nuclear Power Boost and Support Across the Continent

In this backdrop, nuclear power is enjoying its strongest public and political backing in a decade. In both the U.S. and Canada, nuclear energy is being recognized for its reliability and role in achieving net-zero targets.

In Canada, nuclear is the second-largest source of non-emitting electricity and contributes significantly to reducing carbon emissions. Ontario leads the way, with nuclear supplying nearly 60% of its total electricity. The province continues to invest in maintaining and extending reactor lifespans to ensure energy security and meet climate goals.

Despite this renewed interest, DNV notes that nuclear power’s near-term growth will be modest. However, its long-term outlook is strong, with nuclear capacity projected to increase from 115 gigawatts (GW) today to 232 GW by 2060. Most of this growth will come after 2045, primarily from Small Modular Reactors (SMRs).

nuclear smr canada
Source: DNV report

SMRs: The Future of North American Nuclear Energy

Large-scale nuclear projects have struggled in recent decades with cost overruns, construction delays, and public opposition. Even with continued policy incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, big reactors are costly, slow to build, and difficult to integrate with flexible renewable grids. These challenges make new large-scale reactors (LSNs) impractical for the short term.

Modern energy systems increasingly require power sources that can ramp up and down quickly to complement solar and wind. Large reactors lack this agility. SMRs, by contrast, can operate flexibly, be built faster, and support grid stability in renewable-heavy systems.

  • Each SMR unit typically produces around 100 MW, making financing and construction more manageable than billion-dollar LSN projects.

DNV forecasts that SMRs will reach cost parity with large reactors by around 2045. Their modular design reduces construction risks, while their operational flexibility allows them to ramp up or down quickly — a crucial feature for grids with high solar and wind penetration.

Though still in the development phase, SMRs are advancing rapidly. Strong backing from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Canadian government is accelerating research and demonstration projects.

SMR canada
Source: DNV report

Canada’s SMR Leadership and the Darlington Advantage

Canada is emerging as the North American frontrunner in SMR technology. The Darlington SMR project in Ontario, led by Ontario Power Generation (OPG) and funded partly by the Canada Infrastructure Bank, is on track to become the first grid-scale SMR in North America by 2030.

This milestone could position Canada as a global leader in modular nuclear deployment. However, challenges remain. Canada currently lacks the facilities to produce HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium), the fuel needed for most SMR designs.

While Canada has strong uranium reserves and manufactures fuel for its traditional CANDU reactors, it must still develop a domestic HALEU supply chain to maintain its early-mover advantage in SMR deployment.

Key Projects and Timelines

CANADA NUCLEAR

Maritime Nuclear: A New Frontier for Clean Energy

Beyond the grid, DNV forecasts that nuclear energy could power up to 10% of North America’s maritime and near-shore energy demand by 2060 — up from an estimated 3.5% by 2050.

The maritime sector faces mounting pressure to decarbonize under the International Maritime Organization’s Net Zero by 2050 goals. SMRs could provide a solution, offering a zero-emission, high-density energy source for shipping and port operations.

Some developers are exploring floating SMR concepts capable of supplying clean power to docked vessels, reducing local air pollution, and protecting coastal ecosystems.

However, nuclear adoption in maritime transport faces high capital costs, complex financing models, and regulatory barriers. Nuclear-powered ships would require new rules and safety frameworks, particularly in countries with stringent oversight like the U.S. and Canada.

Still, advocates argue that the combination of energy density, low emissions, and efficiency makes nuclear an attractive option for a future low-carbon shipping industry.

Policy, Regulation, and Competitiveness

Regulatory complexity remains a major obstacle for both land-based and maritime nuclear expansion. Compared to countries like China, North America’s safety and environmental regulations add significant costs and time to nuclear construction.

A recent bipartisan push in the U.S. to revitalize domestic shipbuilding for national defense could help reduce barriers and provide incentives for SMR integration into shipyards. Yet, to compete globally, U.S. manufacturers will need to improve both shipbuilding capacity and SMR cost efficiency — a difficult combination to achieve in the near term.

The Long Road to 2060

DNV’s analysis paints a realistic, not overly optimistic, picture. The energy transition is happening, but slowly. Fossil fuels remain dominant in the near term, but nuclear, renewables, and clean fuels will take an expanding share of the mix.

By 2060, North America could see a fully integrated clean energy system, with flexible SMRs supporting renewables, new fuels decarbonizing industry and transport, and fossil fuels pushed to the margins.

The message is clear: the energy transition is inevitable but uneven. Governments, investors, and innovators that act early on SMRs and clean technologies will define the region’s next industrial wave.

The post From Now to 2060: How Canada’s SMRs and Maritime Nuclear Power Will Drive a Net-Zero Future appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Carbon Footprint

The Strategic Case for Nature-Based Carbon Investments

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Nature-based carbon investments deserve consideration when they address a specific business dependency and produce outcomes you can measure. Imagine Moonbucks, a global coffee roaster planning next season’s espresso blend. It is considering natural Grade 4 coffee from Jimma, in southwestern Oromia, Ethiopia. Its sourcing decisions affect the roasting schedule and the cash tied up in coffee purchases. Moonbucks needs to understand which measures could protect that supply, what they would cost and how it would judge the results.

1. Define the sourcing problem before choosing a project

Moonbucks needs a dependable component for its espresso blend. Its procurement team wants continuity of volume and an agreed cup profile. Replacing a shipment at short notice could require new sample approval and changes to the blend, and given the schedules for cultivation, processing, and freight delivery, is practically impossible. Moonbucks needs to get this right, and its initial concern is inconsistent deliveries. It commissions an assessment of the supplying farms and post-harvest chain. The questions cover land condition, harvest availability and whether drying or storage problems are affecting saleable lots.

This distinction changes the investment brief. A tree-planting proposal cannot be assumed to fix drying problems. Better storage cannot restore eroded land. The team must establish which problem exists before selecting the response.

CCC’s guide to finding nature-based solutions in your supply chain explains where to look. Here, the next task is to turn a broad concern into a testable proposal.

2. Develop nature-based carbon investments around the actual supply chain

The assessment would trace Moonbucks’ purchases back through the exporter and supplying producer groups. Which farms supply the contracted lots? Who controls land-management decisions? How long does the buyer expect to maintain the purchasing relationship?

Furthermore, Jimma natural Grade 4 cannot be treated as interchangeable with every Ethiopian coffee. Moonbucks would need to test any substitute against its own blend and quality requirements.

Suppose Moonbucks’ assessment identifies an opportunity to maintain shade trees and restore vegetation along exposed streambanks. The IPCC describes agroforestry as a way to store carbon in vegetation and soil, with potential benefits for erosion control and water quality.1 Moonbucks would need local advice on species, growing conditions and maintenance before deciding how these measures fit its sourcing plan.

The proposal now has a defined sourcing connection and a candidate intervention. The next steps are to test its effect on production, assess carbon eligibility and build the financial case.

3. Compare the proposal with other ways to protect supply

WBCSD’s Nature-based Solutions Blueprint recommends comparing nature-based options with other responses across their benefits and costs.2 For Moonbucks, that means evaluating the landscape proposal alongside drying improvements, storage controls and alternative sourcing arrangements.

The product’s natural-process designation matters. Moonbucks should examine the drying and dry-milling chain alongside land conditions. Its team would check storage practices, contamination risks and incoming-lot quality to see whether problems arise before or after the coffee leaves the farms.

The revised proposal might combine land stewardship with separate post-harvest controls. Each component needs its own purpose and budget. A sustainability label should not obscure which activity is expected to solve which problem.

The project develops as the evidence improves. Its scope should follow the diagnosis rather than preserve the first idea unchanged.

4. Establish what the carbon outcome could count toward

Moonbucks’ sustainability team now tests the proposed carbon case separately from the sourcing case. Is the objective a measurable change in Moonbucks’ value-chain emissions, verified credits for separate voluntary use, or distinct outcomes under carefully defined arrangements?

Scope 3 covers value-chain emissions. A purchasing relationship alone does not prove that a farm intervention can be included in Moonbucks’ inventory. The team needs an applicable accounting method, defensible boundaries and evidence supporting attribution.

SBTi’s FLAG Guidance (forest, land and agriculture), version 1.2, says purchased credits used as offsets cannot meet near-term FLAG or energy and industry targets. Eligible land-based removals are subject to accounting requirements.3 Moonbucks needs to test its proposal against those rules before including an outcome in its targets.

For Moonbucks’ Jimma proposal, maintaining existing trees and establishing new vegetation could involve different carbon questions. Specialists must examine the baseline and additionality, meaning what changes because the project proceeds. They must also assess measurement and the risk that stored carbon is lost. CCC’s MRV and additionality article introduces those tests.

Until that work is complete, Moonbucks should not budget an assumed Scope 3 reduction or credit-sale receipt. Direct emissions reductions remain the priority.

5. Build a financial case that survives weaker assumptions

Moonbucks’ finance team would now build a multi-year budget. UNEP’s State of Finance for Nature 2023 compares current finance with the investment needed to meet climate, biodiversity and land-restoration goals.4 The company would cost its proposed activities, farmer participation and ongoing monitoring. Verification, where required, is a separate expense. Maintenance and responsibility for replacing failed plantings must remain visible after the initial establishment budget ends.

Operational benefits need equally careful treatment. If fewer rejected lots reduce emergency purchasing, count that saving once. Do not add “supply resilience” as another financial benefit when it represents the same avoided cost.

Moonbucks should compare a base case with slower benefits, higher implementation costs and no carbon revenue. It should also distinguish production outcomes from quality and shipment outcomes. A single good harvest would not prove that the landscape intervention caused better delivery performance.

A project can remain worth funding even when its carbon case needs more work. That decision must rest on the operational evidence and the company’s objectives, without unsupported environmental claims.

6. Fund a pilot with a clear expansion decision

Moonbucks’ first approval would fund a bounded pilot, rather than commit the entire sourcing program. Before spending, Moonbucks would agree on participating farms, responsibilities and the evidence needed at review.

Its scorecard could track farmer participation, implementation costs and plant survival, alongside accepted coffee volumes and lot-quality results. Carbon measurements would follow the selected method. Farm-level traceability must connect the intervention to the actual sourcing relationship.

Suppose Moonbucks’ review later finds that storage changes explain most quality improvements, while the land measures need longer observation. Those findings would shape the next decision: expand the proven component, adjust the landscape work or pause further spending. They would not justify crediting all improvements to tree planting.

This gives nature-based carbon investments a practical place in a multi-year strategy. Funding increases as the evidence supports it, and the project can change direction before a larger commitment.

Discuss a sourcing opportunity with CCC

Carbon Credit Capital’s nature-based supply-chain investment service uses its Dual-Value Model to examine supply-chain economics alongside potential sustainability outcomes.

Schedule a consultation to discuss your sourcing exposure and the questions to resolve before allocating capital.

Sources

  1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Chapter 7, Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses, section 7.4.3.3 (Agroforestry).
  2. World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), Nature-based Solutions Blueprint, 5 June 2024.
  3. Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi), Forest, Land and Agriculture Science-Based Target-Setting Guidance, version 1.2, March 2026, section 3.1.4, pp. 37–38.
  4. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), State of Finance for Nature 2023, 2023.
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Carbon Footprint

How to buy plastic credits, and what to check before you do

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A plastic credit funds the collection of plastic waste in places where no formal system exists to collect it. Each credit represents a measured, independently audited quantity of plastic taken out of the environment or returned to use, tracked on a public registry.

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Carbon Footprint

EU carbon credit claims after 27 September 2026

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EU carbon credit claims changed on 27 September 2026, the day the Directive (EU) 2024/825 began to apply across the European Union. The change is narrow. It changes how a company can talk about the credits it buys. A product can no longer be called neutral on the strength of compensation alone; however, every specific, evidenced statement about what a company measured, reduced, and funded stays fully available.

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