Later this month, China will mark the 10th anniversary of the “belt and road initiative” (BRI), its global infrastructure project, at a major international conference in Beijing.
The summit, set to be attended by more than 110 countries, according to Chinese state media, will include “green development” as the focus of one of three high-level forums.
Yet the BRI has faced significant criticism in its first decade for supporting the development of overseas fossil-fuel infrastructure, particularly coal-fired power stations.
Although Chinese president Xi Jinping has pledged to end support for overseas coal power – and his country has signalled an intention to pivot its infrastructure initiative towards “high quality”, signifying, among other values, low-carbon development – questions remain over the BRI’s direction in its second decade.
Carbon Brief has asked leading experts what impact the BRI might have on climate action in the years ahead.
Energy projects and the BRI
The BRI is a global infrastructure project that aims to develop trade routes between China and the rest of the world. It has been criticised for supporting development of overseas fossil fuel infrastructure, particularly coal-fired power.
China’s role in constructing BRI projects largely takes the form of Chinese commercial involvement in project development or loans provided by Chinese financial institutions.
China’s policy banks have reduced their lending, with financing now provided by a broader range of actors, from the state-owned Bank of China to HSBC.
China rarely owns the assets it develops, with Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port being a well-known exception.
Energy and transport infrastructure are the most common types of BRI project. In 2023 to date, for example, energy projects made up 36% of BRI investment, while transport projects accounted for 28%, according to the Green Finance and Development Center (GFDC).
GFDC found that cumulative investment across projects in all sectors exceeded $1tn as of August 2023, according to its analysis of data compiled by the Chinese ministry of commerce, the American Enterprise Institute and by GFDC itself.
The Council for Foreign Relations found that “between 2014 and 2017, 91% of energy-sector loans made by six major Chinese banks to BRI countries were for fossil-fuel projects”.
From 2017, however, the Chinese government began encouraging the “greening” of the BRI. Then, in 2021, president Xi Jinping pledged that China “would not build new coal-fired power projects abroad”.
Recent BRI projects developed with the aim of reducing carbon emissions include Indonesia’s “Whoosh” high-speed railway, the Noor Abu Dhabi solar plant in the United Arab Emirates and Sri Lanka’s Colombo International Container Terminal (see more below).
Researchers also found that, in line with Xi’s pledge, “no new investments in coal power plants have been recorded under the BRI”, China Dialogue reports, although “loopholes” have allowed some coal projects to proceed.
Below, Carbon Brief asks four leading experts the same question: China has stated an intention to pivot the BRI towards low-carbon energy development. How do you think the BRI could affect climate action over the next decade?
Their responses have been edited for clarity and length.
Prof Kevin P Gallagher, director of the Boston University Global Development Policy Center:
As the BRI moves into its second decade, China can solidify its pivot toward low-carbon development in the global south. According to our research at the Boston University Global Development Policy Center, in the early stages of the BRI the majority of China’s overseas energy finance was…in fossil fuels in general and coal-fired power plants in particular.
Emissions from the operating Chinese-financed power plants around the world now emit upwards of 245m tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) annually, roughly the energy-related CO2 emissions from the entire country of Spain or Thailand annually.
In 2021, China announced it would not build new coal-fired power projects abroad and to step up support for low-carbon development. Moving forward, China could pledge to ramp up overseas financing for low carbon development and adopt a green project pipeline facility to ensure alignment with these directives.
Prof Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy, Xiamen University:
In some countries along the “belt and road”, despite the rapid growth of energy demand, the development of green energy is limited due to their relatively backward economic and technological level and the lack of advanced clean-energy technology and facilities. Through the construction of renewable energy projects, such as wind and solar power, China can provide technical, financial and experience support to host countries to promote the development and upgrading of their renewable energy industries.
By providing more clean-energy supplies to these countries…China helps them reduce their dependence on traditional energy sources and promotes energy transformation and green development. At the same time, some countries along the belt and road have problems such as unstable energy supply, energy poverty and low energy efficiency…Cooperation to develop renewable energy projects…will help these countries improve their energy security and promote sustainable development along the belt and road.
Yasiru Ranaraja, founding director of the Belt and Road Initiative Sri Lanka (BRISL):
China’s commitment to shift the BRI towards low-carbon energy development has significant implications for climate action in the coming decade. When we delve into the context of global climate efforts, we encounter a historical divide between developed and developing nations regarding climate justice and the debate over the common but differentiated responsibilities principle in climate action.
While all parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) acknowledge the importance of addressing climate change, the approach to climate action varies among member states. Many developing nations prioritise economic growth, poverty reduction, climate mitigation, and energy security over stringent top-down climate regulations.
China, through the BRI, has emerged as a crucial player in advocating a three-phase approach to low-carbon development: funding, construction and operation. Under the BRI umbrella, numerous infrastructure projects…are dedicated to green development…For example, in Sri Lanka, the Colombo International Container Terminal (CICT), which is an investment development project under BRI, has embraced green technology since its inception in 2014.
This terminal has witnessed a remarkable increase in cargo volumes over the years while prioritising environmental sustainability. The shift to electric cranes has resulted in a 45% reduction in CO2 emissions and a 95% decrease in diesel consumption…Additionally, more than 80% of the terminal’s electricity comes from solar technology. The terminal’s success story…exemplifies how commercial prosperity and environmental protection can coexist harmoniously.
Prof Christoph Nedopil Wang, director of the Griffith Asia Institute, Griffith University:
China controls almost all parts of the green-energy supply chain – from critical minerals for batteries to wafer production for solar, from manufacturing wind turbines to the necessary financing. Without China’s cooperation, a green-energy transition is hardly achievable – whether in the BRI or beyond…BRI countries, meanwhile, must improve their energy planning, energy policy and power markets to be able to attract sufficient Chinese investments in green energy. This should include a phase-down of fossil subsidies and better utilisation of blended finance to reduce financing cost for green energies, as well as longer-term green energy PPAs (power purchase agreements).
A big question remains on the accelerated phase-down of Chinese sponsored coal-fired power plants and replacement with green energy. A recent study by the Green Finance & Development Center and Climate Smart Ventures shows significant financial benefits for Chinese sponsors of plants in Vietnam and Pakistan when accelerating retirement and replacement.
The post Experts: How will the next decade of China’s ‘belt and road initiative’ impact climate action? appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Experts: How will the next decade of China’s ‘belt and road initiative’ impact climate action?
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Three countries have been named by the Paris Agreement’s compliance committee for failing to submit a nationally determined contribution (NDC) and repeatedly snubbing offers of help with their climate plans.
After months of internal debate over whether to identify serial non-responders, the Paris Agreement’s Implementation and Compliance Committee (PAICC) named the three countries which have failed to engage with it over their NDCs on Friday.
It named Democratic Republic of Congo, Senegal and North Korea in a footnote of its annual report, adding that it decided to name them “with a view to facilitating engagement”, adding that representatives of the three nations had been invited to its meeting in early 2027 “with the purpose of identifying any challenges and constraints”.
“The Committee noted the importance of Parties engaging with the Committee in a timely manner, while noting that some delays may be due to the national capabilities and circumstances of the Parties”, the report said.
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In July, PAICC said 12 countries had ignored its repeated attempts to discuss why they had not published an NDC as required every five years under the 2015 Paris accord.
Members of the committee had been divided over whether to name them, but at a September meeting decided to do so in their annual report to the annual climate COP summit.
By the time the report was published on Friday, only Congo, Senegal and North Korea “had not communicated an NDC or submitted a [Biennial Transparency Report] and had not yet responded to any of the Committee’s notifications, despite several reminders issued by the Committee in this regard”.
Rainforest and renewable energy ambitions
The silence from Congo and Senegal is notable because the former is home to much of the Congo Basin rainforest while the latter has sought billions of dollars in climate finance to support its renewable energy ambitions.
After Brazil, Congo has more rainforest than any country in the world. This forest, and the country’s peatlands, absorb huge amounts of greenhouse gas but are fast being lost to expanding farmland, charcoal production, logging and mining.
Senegal signed a Just Energy Transition Partnership with Canada and wealthy European nations in 2023, to help it meet its renewable energy targets under the-then government of Macky Sall. It was chair of the Least Developed Countries group between January 2022 and December 2023.
Tejas Rao, who is researching the PAICC as part of a doctoral thesis at Cambridge University, said the governments of the three countries should engage with the committee.
“Engagement costs these governments very little and the committee has shown it will listen,” he said.
“Silence leaves the committee with no basis to help, and it leaves the [governments] exposed to the narrative that they are simply disengaged,” he told Climate Home News.
Paris Agreement requirement
The 2015 Paris Agreement requires all parties to publish an NDC every five years outlining their emissions reduction targets, with each plan meant to be more ambitious than the country’s last NDC.
The latest set – the third round of plans, with new targets for 2035 – was due in February 2025. While most countries missed this deadline, all but around 30 – mostly small emitters but including Egypt, Vietnam and Argentina – have now submitted them.
Over the year, the PAICC – which is made up of government climate officials from developed and developing countries – has been communicating with governments that have not submitted NDCs and trying to overcome barriers to them doing so.
Some nations have cited exceptional circumstances as the reason for not submitting an NDC, a process that requires a significant amount of work in tracking emissions and consulting on how to curb them across the economy. For example, a letter from a Sudanese official to the PAICC, seen by Climate Home News, said that the country’s civil war had led to the suspension of its NDC preparation.
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The US and Iran are not signed up to the Paris Agreement and so do not have active NDCs, nor does Taiwan, which is not a UN member state.
Rao said that because the PAICC is “facilitative and non-punitive”, naming the countries “is meant to open a door, not close one – the invited consultation is the point”.
“In recent months, governments that explained their constraints, whether capacity, finance or domestic process, have been met with follow-up and support rather than sanction, and the number of silent governments has fallen sharply,” Rao said.
The post Paris Agreement committee names three countries snubbing it over NDCs appeared first on Climate Home News.
Paris Agreement committee names three countries snubbing it over NDCs