Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
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This week
Countdown to COP
FOSSIL PHASEDOWN: The “high ambition coalition” – a group of 15 nations including France, Spain and Kenya – has called for the phasing out of all fossil fuels at preliminary talks ahead of this month’s COP28 climate summit in Dubai, the Financial Times reported. This puts the group “at odds” with major fossil fuel producers, particularly in the Middle East, the paper added.
RENEWABLES ‘RALLY’: The EU, US and the United Arab Emirates are “rallying” other governments to join a global deal to triple renewable energy this decade at COP28, according to documents shared with Reuters. The countries are working to recruit others to sign the pledge ahead of COP28, with a launch event likely to be held at the start of the summit, it said.
PAPAL PARTICIPATION: Pope Francis has announced that he will attend COP28, becoming the first pontiff to participate in such an event, the Wall Street Journal reported. UK monarch King Charles will attend the opening ceremony, a year after he was advised by former prime minister Liz Truss’s government not to attend COP27 in Egypt, reported the Guardian. Reuters noted that US president Joe Biden is not scheduled to attend.
‘Carbon budget’ cuts
SHRINKING BUDGET: The remaining “carbon budget” for limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures has shrunk further, according to a new study reported on by BBC News. The study found that only 250bn tonnes of CO2 can be released if the planet is to have a 50% chance of staying below 1.5C, BBC News reported. The study authors revealed the reduced carbon budget in a Carbon Brief guest post last year and the new study includes small methodology updates.
COUNTDOWN: The Guardian reported that, according to the study, the remaining carbon budget will be exhausted in six years, given current levels of emissions. The UN goal of reaching net-zero by 2050 would give the planet only a 40% chance of staying below 1.5C, the paper added. New Scientist noted that, to have half a chance of limiting global warming to 1.5C, the planet would need to reach net-zero emissions by 2034.
TEMPERATURE TARGETS: Elsewhere, a separate study led by Dr James Hansen, a NASA scientist best known for his striking testimony on climate change before Congress 35 years ago, projected that the world will warm by 1.5C this decade. “The 1.5C limit is deader than a doornail,” said Hansen, according to the New York Times. The newspaper carried comments from Carbon Brief’s climate science contributor Dr Zeke Hausfather, who says: “I think everyone agrees that 1.5C is in the rearview mirror at this point.”
Adaptation gap
‘WOEFULLY INADEQUATE’: The United Nations Environment Programme has published its annual “adaptation gap” report, which found that current spending is “woefully inadequate,” according to the New York Times. The report warned that developing countries need 10-18 times more climate adaptation funding than they currently receive, the Washington Post reported.
BILLIONS NEEDED: Developing countries need $215bn-387bn per year to adapt to the impacts of climate change – a $47bn increase since last year’s assessment – the Financial Times reported. However, adaptation finance flows to developing countries declined by 15% to $21bn in 2021, leading to a finance gap of $194bn-366bn per year, according to the South China Morning Post.
‘MAJOR GAPS’: In a Carbon Brief guest post, two of the report’s authors identified the major gaps in adaptation finance and explained why they have emerged. Over 2017-21, only 66% of the allocated funds were successfully disbursed to their recipient countries, the authors estimated.
Around the world
- PRICE SPIKE: The World Bank has warned that the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas could drive up oil prices, Reuters reported. According to the newswire, the bank outlined three scenarios, the worst of which could see oil prices jump above $150 per barrel.
- THREE BASINS: Rainforest countries from across three continents have agreed to work together to finance and protect their ecosystems – but failed to firm up a unified alliance, Carbon Brief reported.
- WIND WOES: The world’s biggest offshore wind developer has taken a £4.6bn hit after scrapping two projects in the US due to rising costs and delays, the Times reported. The decision is a “blow” to Joe Biden’s plan to reach 30GW of offshore wind capacity in US waters before 2030, the Guardian said.
- LICENCE TO DRILL: The UK’s North Sea Transition Authority has issued 27 new oil and gas licences, the Press Association reported. The Times said the decision has attracted criticism, with Scottish first minister Humza Yousaf calling it the “wrong move”.
- INDONESIA EMISSIONS: Indonesia aims to cut CO2 emissions from its on-grid power sector to 250m tonnes by 2030 and increase its share of renewable electricity generation to 44%, Reuters reported. The plan is part of the nation’s “just energy transition partnership”.
$150bn
The amount that banks pumped into companies with “carbon bomb” projects – extraction projects that release more than one gigatonne of CO2 – in 2022, according to the Guardian.
Latest climate research
- The Denman Glacier in East Antarctica will contribute 0.33mm per year to global sea level rise until the year 2300 – a level that is “comparable to half of the contemporary sea level contribution of the entire Antarctic ice sheet” – according to new research in Science Advances.
- Forests in the Brazilian Amazon that have been disturbed by human activity have much lower resilience to heat stress and atmospheric water stress than intact forests, according to a new study in Global Change Biology.
- New research in Communications Earth and Environment found that the rise in global average surface temperature shows a consistent 50-year trend of 0.18C per decade, with an increased rate from 1990.
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
Global South Climate Database

Carbon Brief’s Global South Climate Database, a project that aims to ensure that journalists from all over the world can contact climate experts from developing countries, recently celebrated its one-year anniversary. The database now includes 1,003 experts from 107 countries, who collectively speak more than 75 languages. Carbon Brief launched the publicly available, searchable database of climate experts from the global south in October 2022, with the support of the Reuters Institute’s Oxford Climate Journalism Network.
Spotlight

Prof Saleemul Huq: A ‘climate revolutionary’
This week, Carbon Brief profiles the life of loss-and-damage pioneer Prof Saleemul Huq.
Tributes have been flooding in from politicians, scientists and activists for Prof Saleemul Huq – the influential Bangladeshi climate scientist who died on 28 October at the age of 71.
Born in 1952 in then-East Pakistan, Huq attended university in the UK. After obtaining his PhD in biochemistry at Imperial College London, he returned to Bangladesh where he founded the Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies – an independent thinktank focused on environment policy.
Huq quickly became a leading voice in community-based adaptation and organised annual conferences on the topic from 2005, bringing together experts from around the world.
In 2009, Huq was appointed the director of the International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCAD). He also set up the climate change research group at International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) in Bangladesh, and was its initial director – continuing as a senior fellow until 2021.
Huq was a prominent scientist. He worked as lead author on the third, fourth and fifth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). He also published hundreds of papers in high-profile journals throughout his career.
The Queen awarded Huq an OBE in the 2022 New Year’s honours list for his “services to combating international climate change”. Later that year, Nature named Huq as one of its top-10 scientists, calling him a “climate revolutionary”.
Huq also played an active role in international climate negotiations. He attended every single set of UN climate talks, from COP1 in Berlin in 1995 to COP27 in Egypt, where he used his expertise to advise the least developed and most climate-vulnerable countries.
Huq was widely known for his campaign work on providing “loss and damage” funding for less developed countries. At COP27, he was front and centre when countries came to a historic agreement to set up a loss and damage fund.
“He worked tirelessly for 30 years,” Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy at the Climate Action Network, told the Washington Post. “Despite many moments of frustration, he never lost hope.”
ICCAD has launched a petition calling for the UN loss and damage fund to be named after Huq, after the idea gained traction with many prominent voices in the climate community.
Huq was part of the advisory committee to the presidency of COP28 and had planned to attend the talks in Dubai.
In his final piece of writing, published days after his death, Huq emphasised the need to “keep pressure on the biggest emitters” at COP28. Prof Farhana Sultana, his co-author, wrote that he “was a visionary and steadfast leader on climate justice, a champion of developing countries at climate negotiations, an advocate for the global poor, and a source of inspiration to thousands worldwide”.
Huq was a “titan of the climate movement who stood out in a field dominated by scientists from Europe and North America”, said Mohamad Adow, director of energy and climate thinktank Power Shift Africa.
German climate envoy and former Greenpeace head Jennifer Morgan called Huq “a driving force for climate justice since the beginning of the climate debate”.
ICCAD called him “a visionary leader who was not only the torch bearer for Bangladesh’s fight against climate change but for the entire global community”.
On Sunday afternoon, hundreds gathered at the Gulshan Society mosque in Dhaka to pay their respects. Huq is survived by his wife, son and daughter.
Watch, read, listen
‘KILLER LAKE’: A joint investigation by the Bureau of Investigative Journalism and Reuters revealed the “preferential treatment and backroom deals” behind the Canadian winner of gas rights on Congo’s “killer” Lake Kivu.
SUN AND WIND: On her blog Sustainability by Numbers, Dr Hannah Ritchie walked through the numbers from a policy paper (pdf) published by the University of Oxford looking at the potential for solar and wind to meet the UK’s energy needs.
ECUADOR VS OIL: BBC podcast The Climate Question explored why the people of Ecuador voted to stop oil drilling in the Amazon rainforest.
Coming up
- 6-10 November: Group on Earth Observations (GEO) week 2023, Cape Town, South Africa
- 6-10 November: 52nd Meeting of the Pacific Islands Forum, Cook Islands
- 7 November: Liberia second round of presidential elections
- 10 November: IEA Energy Policy Review of Uganda, Kampala, Uganda
Pick of the jobs
- Carbon Brief, multimedia producer | Salary: £30,000 a year, dependent on experience. Location: A UK/Europe time zone
- UK Met Office, scientific manager – sea level rise | Salary: £49,149 a year. Location: Exeter
- The Nature Conservancy, policy adviser, northern Caribbean programme | Salary: BSD$53,000-58,000. Location: Bahamas
- The Stockholm Environment Institute, research fellow, climate finance | Salary: Unknown. Location: Bangkok, Thailand
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org
The post DeBriefed 3 November 2023: King at COP28; 1.5C in ‘rearview mirror’; Life of ‘climate revolutionary’ Prof Saleemul Huq appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Climate Change
Governments set to agree fees for ships that miss green targets
Government negotiators at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in London this week look set to agree that, from 2027, the owners or operators of ships that fail to meet targets to reduce emissions from their fuel should be penalised financially.
Under a compromise proposal put forward by the chair of the talks, shipowners who fail to meet the targets for cleaner fuels will have to make up the difference through a combination of payments to those who have met the targets and money paid into a green fund administered by the IMO.
But, while all major country-negotiating blocks are engaging with this proposal, they remain divided on what these targets should be – and on how steep the penalty should be for failing to meet them.
Small island nations like the Marshall Islands want ambitious emissions-cutting targets and high fees, while some big developing countries like China, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates want weak targets and low fees.
Governments are in closed-door talks on the issues this week, hoping to reach an agreement by Friday which can be officially signed off at the next set of talks in October.
Two-tier system
The head of the IMO, Arsenio Dominguez, told reporters on Monday that he was convinced an agreement would be reached this week, dismissing the need for a back-up plan. “It’s too easy to be negative in life – that’s not me,” he quipped.
The proposed system includes two targets to reduce the amount of greenhouse gas emitted per unit of energy used – one easier to meet and one harder. Those who fail to meet one or both of these targets can either buy “surplus units” from those that meet them or buy “remedial units” from the IMO, or a combination of the two.
The IMO’s new Net Zero Fund will spend the money from the “remedial units” to clean up the maritime sector and compensate for any negative impacts of the transition on developing economies, such as increases in the price of food due to higher shipping costs. Under the current proposal, the money will not be spent on climate action outside the maritime sector.
Governments have accepted that there will be two tiers of remedial units. Ship owners or operators that fail to meet the easier “base” emissions-intensity reduction targets should have to buy more expensive remedial units. Those that fail to meet the harder stretch targets get to buy cheaper remedial units.
Shipping’s remedial units
The price of the more expensive “Tier 2” units will be somewhere between $305-600 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent while the cheaper Tier 1 units will be $50-150 a tonne , according to different countries’ proposals outlined in the chair’s draft text.

A proposal from “Austria et al” – which is likely to include the European Union – calls for the highest prices of $600 and $150 for Tier 2 and Tier 1 units respectively.
The “Marshall Islands et al” – likely to consist of Pacific and Caribbean Islands and some African and Central American states – wants almost as high prices of $480 and $150 a tonne.
Japan wants the next highest – $450 and $100 – followed by a proposal from Argentina, China and unnamed others of $305 and $50.
Emissions intensity targets
Governments are also split on what the emissions targets should be. The Marshall Islands and its supporters want the highest ambition, followed in descending order by the Austria-led group, Japan, China and Argentina’s supporters, and finally Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s joint proposal with the lowest.

The Marshall Islands wants the stretch goal to be 100% emissions reductions straight away. This is a variation on their original proposal of a levy, where all emissions are priced at a flat rate. All other proposals want the targets to start very low and ramp up to around 100% by 2050.
At the IMO on Monday, ministers and negotiators from five Pacific nations told reporters they were disappointed that their levy proposal was no longer being considered.
Marshall Islands ambassador Albon Ishoda said this would have been “the best option” but that his nation and its “Caribbean, African and Central American partners and allies” can support the alternative compromise proposal “only if it prices 100% of emissions from the first tonne at no less than $150 a tonne”. “That is what climate science, economic modelling and justice demand,” he said.

He added later that another “strong red line” negotiating position was that trading of credits should not be part of the agreement. The compromise proposal’s surplus units, earned by those who exceed the emissions reduction targets, are a form of credit trading while its remedial units are not.
Tuvalu’s transport minister Simon Kofe said credit trading would benefit the “bigger countries, the richer countries” which have the “capacity” to make the green transition and punish smaller, developing countries.
Asked if his group would compromise further and accept an agreement if it didn’t get 100% of the emissions targeted straight away, Ishoda said: “Compromise is a necessary process. But, at this point, we are not ready to go back home and say we couldn’t get you the 100% required – because it’s based on the science that we have always been talking about.”
Kofe noted that an impact assessment carried out by the IMO found that a levy on all emissions was fairer, cheaper and more effective than other options under consideration. At the time this study was published last August, Brazil and Argentina labelled it “unacceptable” and “nonsensical”.
But Kofe called for compromise. “The nature of the challenge that we face right now is we can’t have China not being part of the solution or the US or the bigger countries. It has to be reached by consensus,” he said.
“I hope that we can try and appeal to the better conscience – the solution that we’re finding is for humanity not just for ourselves.”
The post Governments set to agree fees for ships that miss green targets appeared first on Climate Home News.
Governments set to agree fees for ships that miss green targets
Climate Change
Analysis: Nearly 60 countries have ‘dramatically’ cut plans to build coal plants since 2015
Nearly 60 countries have drastically scaled back their plans for building coal-fired power plants since the Paris Agreement in 2015, according to figures released by Global Energy Monitor (GEM).
Among those making cuts of 98% or more to their coal-power pipeline are some of the world’s biggest coal users, including Turkey, Vietnam and Japan.
The data also shows that 35 nations eliminated coal from their plans entirely over the past decade, including South Korea and Germany.
Global coal-fired electricity generation has increased since 2015 as more power plants have come online.
But the data on plants in “pre-construction” phases in 2024 shows what GEM calls a “dramatic drop” in proposals for future coal plants.
The number of countries still planning new coal plants has roughly halved to just 33, with the proposed capacity – the maximum electricity output of those proposed plants – dropping by around two-thirds.
China and India, the world’s largest coal consumers, have also both reduced their planned coal capacity by more than 60% over the same timeframe, from a total of 801 gigawatts (GW) to 298GW.
However, both countries still have a large number of coal projects in the pipeline and, together, made up 92% of newly proposed coal capacity globally in 2024.
‘Dramatic drop’
The Paris Agreement in 2015 had major implications for the use of fossil fuels. As the fossil fuel that emits the most carbon dioxide (CO2) when burned, coal has long been viewed by many as requiring a rapid phaseout.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) both see steep declines in “unabated” coal use by 2030 as essential to limit global warming to 1.5C.
But coal power capacity has continued to grow, largely driven by China.
Global capacity hit 2,175GW in 2024, up 1% from the year before and 13% higher than in 2015, according to GEM’s global coal-plant tracker.
This growth disguises a collapse in plans for future coal projects.
GEM’s latest analysis charts a decade of developments since the Paris Agreement and the “dramatic drop” in the number of coal plant proposals.
In 2015, coal power capacity in pre-construction – meaning plants that had been announced, or reached either the pre-permit or permitted stage – stood at 1,179GW.
By 2024, this had fallen to 355GW – a 70% drop. This indicates that countries are increasingly turning away from their earlier plans for a continued reliance on coal.
In total, 23 nations reduced the size of their proposals over this period and another 35 completely eliminated coal power from their future energy plans. Together, these 58 countries account for 80% of global fossil fuel-related CO2 emissions.
The chart below shows these changes, with China and India shown on a different x-axis due to the scale of their proposals. (See section below for more information.)

2015 to 2024, gigawatts (GW), in all countries that saw declines over this period. Red arrows indicate countries that no longer have any plans to build coal power plants. Source: Global Energy Monitor.
According to GEM, of the coal plants that were either under pre-construction or construction in 2015, 55% ended up being cancelled, a third were completed and the remainder are still under development.
Many of the nations that have phased coal out of their electricity plans are either very small or only had modest ambitions for building coal power in the first place.
However, the list also includes countries such as Germany and South Korea. These nations are both in the top 10 of global coal consumers, but their governments have committed to significantly reducing or, in Germany’s case, phasing out coal use by the late 2030s.
Turkey, Vietnam and Japan are among the big coal-driven economies that are now approaching having zero new coal plants in the works. All have around 2% of the planned capacity they had a decade ago.
Other major coal consumers have also drastically reduced their coal pipelines. Indonesia, the fifth-biggest coal user, has reduced its coal proposals by 90% and South Africa – the seventh-biggest – has cut its planned capacity by 83%.
Of the 68 countries that were planning to build new coal plants in 2015, just nine have increased their planned capacity. Around 85% of the planned increase in capacity by these nations is in Russia and its central Asian neighbours.
China and India
China is by far the world’s largest coal consumer, with India the second largest.
There was 44GW of coal power added to the global fleet last year. China was responsible for 30.5GW of this while retiring just 2.5GW, and India added 5.8GW while retiring 0.2GW.
Between them, these nations contributed 70% of the global coal-plant construction in 2024.
Nevertheless, there were signs of change as newly operating coal capacity around the world reached its lowest level in 20 years.
China and India have also seen significant drops in their pre-construction coal capacity over the past decade.
In 2015, China had 560GW of coal power in its pipeline and India had 241GW. Both nations have seen their proposed capacity drop by more than 60% to reach 217GW and 81GW, respectively.
While this is a significant reduction, both nations still have more coal capacity planned now than any other nation did in 2015. China’s current 217GW is roughly four times more than the 57GW Turkey was planning at that time.
GEM attributes the “slowdown” in China’s new proposals to the nation’s record-breaking solar and wind growth, which saw more electricity generation capacity installed in 2023 and 2024 than in the rest of the world combined.
As for India, GEM says the “notable declines” in coal proposals and commissions came after a “coal-plant investment bubble that went bust in the early 2010s”.
It notes that India is now “encouraging and fast-tracking the development of large coal plants”. The government has cited the need to meet the large nation’s growing electricity demand, especially due to the increased need for cooling technologies during heatwaves.
As other nations move away from the fossil fuel, coal capacity is likely to become increasingly concentrated in these two nations. Together, they made up 92% of the 116GW in newly proposed capacity last year.
The post Analysis: Nearly 60 countries have ‘dramatically’ cut plans to build coal plants since 2015 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Analysis: Nearly 60 countries have ‘dramatically’ cut plans to build coal plants since 2015
Climate Change
David Attenborough’s New Documentary: A Call for Action on the Global Ocean Treaty

David Attenborough’s voice has been a powerful guide for millions, educating audiences on the wonders of the natural world and the urgent need to protect it. His latest documentary, Ocean with David Attenborough, highlights the majesty and fragility of our ocean. The documentary is a breathtaking reminder of the deep connection between humanity and the ocean, while urging us to take action to safeguard these vital ecosystems. With a global Ocean Treaty on the horizon, this documentary calls for collective action to preserve the ocean that sustains life on Earth.
“This is the story of our ocean. And how we must write its next chapter together. For if we save the sea, we save our world. After a lifetime of filming our planet, I’m sure that nothing is more important.”
-David Attenborough
The powerful documentary film from Silverback Films and Open Planet Studios is set for release as a global cinema event from 8 May (2025), which also coincides with David Attenborough’s 99th birthday. The film will be available on streaming services globally on world oceans day on the 8th of June.
The film’s release is timed ahead of World Ocean Day (8 June 2025), June’s United Nations Ocean Conference 2025 where it will be screened (9 June – 13 June) in Nice, France, and midway through the United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021-2030). As world leaders decide the fate of our ocean, Ocean with David Attenborough will show why ocean recovery is vital for stabilising our climate and securing a healthier future for us all, and how marine protection – if immediately implemented – can help to turn the tide.
The Ocean’s Vital Role in Our Planet’s Health
Overfishing, plastic pollution, rising temperatures, and habitat destruction are pushing marine life to the brink. In The Ocean: A Journey with David Attenborough, viewers are invited to witness the wonders of the ocean, from its deepest trenches to its vibrant coral reefs. The film is not just a visual spectacle but also an urgent call for action. Attenborough’s narration, as always, blends awe with concern, urging us to recognise the ocean’s importance and the urgency of preserving it.
“My lifetime has coincided with the great age of ocean discovery. Over the last hundred years, scientists and explorers have revealed remarkable new species, epic migrations and dazzling, complex ecosystems beyond anything I could have imagined as a young man. In this film, we share some of those wonderful discoveries, uncover why our ocean is in such poor health, and, perhaps most importantly, show how it can be restored to health. This could be the moment of change. Nearly every country on Earth has just agreed, on paper, to achieve this bare minimum and protect a third of the ocean. Together, we now face the challenge of making it happen.”
-David Attenborough
Why the Global Ocean Treaty Matters
The Global Ocean Treaty is more than just an environmental issue—it is a matter of global responsibility. All waters of the ocean are interconnected, and its health directly affects all of us. Climate change, pollution and overfishing are pushing the ocean to the brink of collapse. Food security and the livelihoods of billions of people hang in the balance.
After years of campaigning, the first ever Global Ocean Treaty was passed at the UN in 2023, but governments now need to sign it into law, to make protected areas a reality at sea. Time is running out, and reaching this target will require a strong and urgent political response.
Australia has signed but not ratified the Global Ocean Treaty. See the list of countries that have signed and/or ratified the high seas treaty here. The new government must prioritise ratifying as a matter of urgency.
Greenpeace’s call for action is clear: to ensure the protection of 30% of the world’s ocean by 2030. We are pushing for at least 60 countries to ratify by the end of 2025 in order to support the creation of marine protected areas that are off-limits to destructive activities like deep-sea mining and industrial fishing.
In our own backyard, industrial fishing and pollution is putting immense strain on unique and diverse ecosystems. That’s why Greenpeace is campaigning to establish a marine sanctuary in the Tasman Sea.
Our beautiful blue backyard, the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand has complex topography and nutrient-rich currents in these areas that create ideal conditions for species like tuna, whales, seabirds, and ancient corals to thrive. Establishing a sanctuary here would not only safeguard endangered species, like the South Pacific humpback whale and several types of albatross, but also provide a habitat for all marine life to thrive.
The Global Ocean Treaty is an essential tool for protecting life in the high seas. By creating new sanctuaries we can protect the ocean for the future. Join Greenpeace in advocating for the Australian Government to be a leader in protecting the ocean.
Together, we can protect the ocean that sustains us all.
David Attenborough’s New Documentary: A Call for Action on the Global Ocean Treaty
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