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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.

Carbon Brief handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

China restricts exports of key electric vehicle battery component

GRAPHITE CURBED: China placed export controls on graphite, requiring “special export permits” for three forms of the mineral, which is commonly used to manufacture electric vehicle (EV) batteries, the Financial Times reported. The decision was made in response to the US’s tightened controls on exports of cutting-edge artificial intelligence chips to China, the outlet added. Finance newspaper Yicai quoted a Chinese ministry of commerce spokesperson saying that China “does not target any specific country or region, nor any specific industry” with the restrictions. 

UNCERTAIN IMPACT: Reuters stated that the move has “fuelled uncertainty” in the EV sector. It added that Chinese manufacturers with overseas plants “expect limited impact” as they largely use synthetic graphite. Foreign manufacturers, who largely have not made the shift to synthetic graphite, will be disproportionately affected, the newswire added. However, the restricted items had already been subject to “temporary controls”, another Reuters article explained, quoting an expert as saying these temporary controls had “no significant impact on any industry”.

NEXT FRONTIER? Meanwhile, China is boosting its strategic reserves of cobalt, another important mineral in EV production, according to Bloomberg. The outlet noted that China agreed to buy 3,000 tonnes of cobalt at a recent meeting in Beijing between government officials and representatives from five producers and traders. 

California governor meets Chinese leadership to talk climate

CALIFORNIA DREAMIN’: California governor Gavin Newsom met a series of top Chinese policymakers, most notably president Xi Jinping, in a trip “to promote climate cooperation”, NBC reported, adding that Newsom “received an unusually warm welcome”. State news agency Xinhua announced that Xi told Newsom that “China and the [US] have great potential for cooperation in…green development and combating climate change, and both sides are well positioned to…turn [this] into a new bright spot” of bilateral cooperation.

BRASS TACKS: Newsom also met environment minister Huang Runqiu at a climate dialogue, another NBC article said, adding that Huang pledged to uphold a China-California memorandum of understanding (MOU) on carbon markets, adaptation and other climate policy. Communist party-backed news outlet the People’s Daily also reported on the event, stating that several provincial leaders expressed their desire “to strengthen exchanges and cooperation with the California government in…clean energy”. Bloomberg reported that Newsom’s visit concluded in Shanghai with the signing of an MOU “on matters including environmental protection and combating climate change” with mayor Gong Zheng – and a visit to Tesla’s gigafactory.

SUNNY SIDE UP: Politico noted that Newsom announced Chinese and US climate envoys Xie Zhenhua and John Kerry would meet this week at the Sunnylands estate in California. China watchers noted this as the location of Xi’s first meeting with former US president Barack Obama in 2013, ahead of their joint climate pledge in 2014. (For more, see Carbon Brief’s “Nine key moments that changed China’s mind about climate change”.) Greenpeace’s Li Shuo said the return would “pave the ground for the Xi-Biden summit at APEC [Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation]”, which is due to take place in San Francisco later this month. The Communist party-affiliated newspaper People’s Daily published a commentary by Zhong Sheng – a nom de plume of the party leadership – that called for the US and China to improve ties and continue the type of cooperation that “[led] the way to the Paris agreement”. 

EU DEALS: Meanwhile, Euronews reported that the EU has announced a “raft of new investment agreements” in the global south as part of its “global gateway” program, in areas including critical raw materials and green hydrogen. At the same time, the EU also “launched a wind power package…to counter the growing influence of China and spur its own industry”, Bloomberg said. Financial news outlet Yicai covered the official response from ministry of commerce (MOFCOM), which argued that “wind power products produced by Chinese enterprises have played an important role in accelerating the green transformation of the EU” and that it “firmly opposes” the EU’s “protectionist” behaviour. India is also “investigating 40 Chinese solar companies”, another Yicai article reported, which links the move to India’s desire to protect its solar industry from “dumping” – although an article in energy newspaper IN-EN.com pointed out that other countries’ solar companies were also being investigated.

China’s veteran climate envoy ‘set to retire’

XIE OUT: China’s climate change envoy Xie Zhenhua “is set to retire…at the end of this year’s COP28 climate talks”, according to Reuters. Both Reuters and a separate article by Bloomberg revealed that his replacement may be veteran diplomat Liu Zhenmin, a former vice minister for foreign affairs and UN under-secretary-general who “has been involved in past UN climate talks, taking part in Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement negotiations”. In a recent speech by Liu, he emphasised the need to “prioritise practical actions on climate change” and for developed countries to better support developing countries in their energy transitions. (See more below.)

XIA IN: Online newspaper the Paper reported that the ministry of ecology and environment (MEE) appointed a new director for its climate change department, Xia Yingxian. Xia previously “served as deputy permanent representative of China to the United Nations Environment Program” and “won international awards for his notable contributions to protecting the ozone layer and phasing out ozone depleting substances”, the newspaper explained. Xia replaced Li Gao, who was transferred to the environment and resources protection committee of the National People’s Congress, according to economic newspaper Jiemian. State-run newspaper the China Daily also covered the press conference, noting that Xia said that COP28 should assess “the gap in developed nations’ implementation of the Paris treaty and whether they had taken the lead in cutting carbon emissions and fulfilled their obligations to support developing countries”.

China releases report on its progress addressing climate change

PROGRESS REPORT: Xia’s climate change department at the MEE also released its annual report on China’s policies and actions to address climate change, said the People’s Daily. The report revealed that carbon emission intensity levels between 2005 and 2022 dropped by more than 51%, that non-fossil energy was contributing 17.5% of China’s consumption at the end of 2022 and that, as of mid-2023, “new energy” vehicle ownership reached 16.2m units, “accounting for more than half of the world”, the news outlet said. A separate press conference by the national energy administration (NEA) announced that China had added 172GW of installed renewable capacity between January and September 2023, an increase of 93% year-on-year, according to power news outlet China Electricity News, which explained that the NEA pledged to plan and maintain the supply of power over the winter peak period. 

SOUTH-SOUTH SOLIDARITY: China has also “signed 48 memorandums of understanding on “south-south” cooperation on climate change” and “implemented 75 projects on climate change mitigation and adaptation” with developing countries as of September 2023, the report continued. The outlet also included comments from Xia’s press conference (see above) that COP28 should include “a comprehensive and balanced assessment of the progress and gaps in the global implementation of the Paris Agreement”, mobilisation of the $100bn climate finance pledged to developing countries, development of a loss and damages fund and promotion of “a just and green transition”.

Spotlight 

Why China’s slowdown could drive a peak in fossil fuels and emissions

China’s economic slowdown will have major implications for global energy and emissions trends, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2023. In this issue, Carbon Brief looks at what is changing in China – and what it means for the world.

What does the World Energy Outlook say about China?

Every year, Carbon Brief takes a deep dive into the latest IEA World Energy Outlook, producing in-depth coverage of the key findings – and the ways the outlook has shifted.

This year, the IEA highlights the impact of structural shifts in China, with knock-on implications for the whole world due to its “outsize influence on global energy trends”.

As IEA executive director Dr Fatih Birol told Carbon Brief in September, China was responsible for about two-thirds of global oil demand growth over the past decade, one-third of gas growth, more than 90% of coal demand growth and 85% of the rise in CO2 emissions.

The country’s “epoch-making” economic expansion over the past few decades has “changed the energy world”, the IEA says, but now “China is changing”. The report explains:

“China, which has an outsize influence on global energy trends, is undergoing a major shift as its economy slows and undergoes structural changes.”

China already has “world-class infrastructure”, narrowing the scope for further growth in physical assets – even before the ongoing strains in the country’s property sector. Moreover, China’s working-age population peaked in 2015 and is expected to fall 20% by 2050.

As a result, China’s economic growth is slowing and shifting towards less carbon-intensive sectors. The IEA reflects these changing expectations by cutting the outlook for average GDP growth to 3.9% per year until 2030, some 0.8 points lower than expected last year.

What does China’s slowdown mean for energy use and emissions?

These economic changes will have major implications for China’s energy demand and emissions.

To date, the expansion of low-carbon energy sources has been too slow to keep pace with rising demand for energy overall, with fossil fuels picking up the slack.

Now, decades of rapid energy demand growth are coming to an end, with the IEA pointing to a peak in China’s energy demand “around the middle of this decade”. Last year it had said a peak in energy demand – and CO2 emissions – would not come until “just before 2030”.

With China continuing to see “dynamic growth in clean energy”, its demand for fossil fuels is set to peak in 2024 and then enter structural decline, according to the outlook.

(Carbon Brief’s next quarterly analysis of trends in China’s energy use and emissions – as well as their near-term prospects – will feature in the 16 November issue of China Briefing.)

The decline in China’s fossil fuel demand will be driven by lower coal use. The IEA sees China’s coal demand falling nearly as quickly over the rest of this decade – by an average of 53m tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) per year – as it grew in the last (61Mtce per year).

By 2030, the IEA expects Chinese coal use to fall by 422Mtce, which is roughly equivalent to twice the current demand of the EU. This would leave China’s coal use in 2030 some 13% below 2022 levels – and nearly 100Mtce lower than the agency expected last year.

While China’s gas use would continue climbing – and its oil demand would only peak later this decade – coal would send China’s total fossil fuel use and CO2 emissions into decline.

What would happen if China builds more solar than expected?

Much of the expected drop in China’s coal use is concentrated in the electricity sector, where demand is set to fall 16% by 2030. China’s coal-fired electricity generation would fall by 874 terawatt hours (TWh), roughly equivalent to the total output of the US coal fleet.

The decline is expected to be steeper than the IEA thought just a year ago. This is despite the electrification of China’s economy going faster, with two out of every three cars sold in 2030 set to be electric rather than the one out of two expected last year.

The IEA now sees China generating an extra 820TWh of electricity from solar in 2030 – up 56% on last year’s estimate – and an extra 420TWh from wind (+27%).

These changes would be sufficient to push China’s CO2 emissions down to 11.3bn tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2) by 2030, 7% below 2022 levels, whereas last year it only saw a 2% cut.

Yet the IEA notes that these shifts could happen even more quickly than it expects in its main “stated policies scenario” (STEPS), reflecting current government policy settings.

China’s solar manufacturing sector is surging, it notes, creating potential for even faster solar growth. This could see China building 400GW of solar per year by 2030, instead of 270GW.

If this extra solar can be integrated into the grid, it would cut China’s coal generation in 2030 by a further 20%, the IEA says, shaving another US-sized coal fleet off global demand.

Another case explored by the IEA is if China’s economic slowdown goes more quickly, with “slower but ultimately ‘higher quality’ growth”. In this “low” case, China’s emissions would fall a further 0.8bn tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2) in 2030 to 10.5GtCO2, to 15% below 2022 levels.

Coal use would fall by an amount equal to Europe’s total, oil imports would fall by 5% and liquified natural gas (LNG) by 20%, with “major implications for global [trade] balances”.

In a “high” economic growth case, China’s emissions would still peak by 2030 – but 0.8GtCO2 higher than in the central scenario, mainly due to stronger coal demand.

Watch, read, listen

CLIMATE TALK: The Center for China and Globalization published remarks from climate envoy Xie Zhenhua’s possible successor, Liu Zhenmin, as well as the US, EU and UAE ambassadors to China, on multilateral climate cooperation.

RED LINES: The China Stories podcast narrated an article from the China Project exploring the potential and limitations of China’s use of “ecological conservation red lines” to protect local ecosystems.

CBAM: Envision CEO and wind energy billionaire Zhang Lei spoke in Ordos about how the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism and other policies created “invisible carbon barriers” to trade, and how China should develop zero carbon industrial parks to circumvent these barriers.

EXTREME WEATHER: State-run newspaper the China Daily published a short video interviewing top scientists on the link between climate change and extreme weather.

New science 

Impacts of coal use phase-out in China on the atmospheric environment: emissions, surface concentrations and exceedance of air quality standards

Atmospheric Environment

A new study found that, according to 2015 data, emissions of sulphur dioxide, nitric oxide and black carbon from coal sources accounted for more than half of the total anthropogenic emissions in China. The researchers added that the phase-out of coal use could lead to the concentrations of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and fine particulate matter decreasing by approximately 30-50%.

Impacts of ESG disclosure on corporate carbon performance: empirical evidence from listed companies in heavy pollution industries

Sustainability

New research explored the effect of ESG disclosure mechanisms on corporate carbon performance. Using data from heavily polluting companies in China, they found that corporate carbon performance increased by 1.2% for each level of ESG disclosure enacted.

China Briefing is compiled by Anika Patel and edited by Wanyuan Song and Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org.

The post China Briefing 2 November: Fossil fuel peak in 2024; Graphite curbs; Xie to ‘retire’ appeared first on Carbon Brief.

China Briefing 2 November: Fossil fuel peak in 2024; Graphite curbs; Xie to ‘retire’

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UN chief warns climate crisis “in overdrive” as El Niño threatens to fuel the fire

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The United Nations Secretary-General and foreign ministers from the UK, France and Spain have blamed the deadly wildfires engulfing Europe on climate change, using the disaster to renew calls for faster cuts to greenhouse gas emissions.

António Guterres told journalists on Friday that the “climate crisis is in overdrive”, adding that global heat seen so far is just a “warm up act” as a phenomenon known as El Niño intensifies “adding fuel to a planet already on fire”.

A new World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) report published on Friday predicts that the weather pattern will grow into a “strong event” between now and October, increasing the risk of higher than normal temperatures across much of the world and disrupted rainfalls.

“That risks shattering every seasonal record – and driving even more severe effects worldwide,” Guterres said.

El Niño builds on top of an already warming world, driven primarily by the burning of fossil fuels. A WMO scientist, who did not want to be named, told journalists that all the heatwaves and other climate impacts seen so far this year are “before the effects of El Niño are really kicking in at a global scale”.

Fossil fuellling the fires

Fires have broken out across much of Europe but are threatening the most people in the south-west of France near Bordeaux and in Central Spain near Madrid. Nearly a quarter of a million people have been evacuated in France with hundreds of homes destroyed while in Spain 80,000 people have had to leave their homes and at least 13 died in one village.

A scientific study published on Friday by the World Weather Attribution group found that man-made climate change made deadly fires in France twice as likely and those in Spain twenty times more likely. Smaller fires in the UK were not analysed by the study.

UN Climate Change leader Simon Stiell blamed fossil fuels for the fires, as well as storms in Chile and heatwaves in North America and Japan in recent weeks. “The climate alarm is blaring”, he said on Wednesday.

Guterres criticised new fossil fuel production projects and fossil fuel subsidies for causing hardship across the world. Discussing his speech, a senior UN official – who did not want to be named – said the subsidies amounted to trillions of US dollars a year and criticised pension funds and institutional investors, including insurance companies, for continuing to invest in fossil fuel projects.

The head of the United Nations Antonio Guterres (right) with the head of the UN’s climate arm Simon Stiell (left) at COP30 (Photo: Kiara Worth/UNFCCC)

Asked why world leaders and the public are not prioritising climate action, Guterres said they are distracted by wars in Ukraine, the Middle East, Sudan and elsewhere and sometimes forget “other aspects that are a sometimes even more dangerous threat”.

Also the fossil fuel industry and “some countries” are campaigning to pretend that climate change does not exist, he said, adding that the UN should be more active in “naming the situations as they are and the responsibilties as they are and mobilising the public opinion”.

After meetings in Paris and Madrid earlier in the week, the UK’s new foreign minister Ed Miliband issued joint statements with his French and Spanish counterparts – Jean-Noël Barrot and José Manuel Albares Bueno – calling on the world to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels.

They promised to do more to reduce emissions and protect their people and encouraged other governments to do the same.

The UK-French statement called on governments to publish UN climate plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which are aligned with the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit global average temperatures to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

According to Climate Action Tracker, only three countries – the UK, Nigeria and Norway – have submitted NDCs with 2035 emissions reduction targets which are compatible with 1.5C. Fifty-two countries – including Egypt, Vietnam and Argentina – have yet to submit an NDC at all.

Defending science

Beyond action on emissions, the ministers also intervened in an ongoing dispute over the timing of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC)’s next flagship assessment.

Miliband and Barrot’s statement said they “underline the importance” of scientific report feeding into governments’ next global stocktake of progress on climate action in two years’ time, calling it a “critical input” to that process.

The timing of this report has been a contentious issue in government negotiations at the IPCC and at June’s climate talks in Bonn. While a group of nations calling themselves the “friends of science” want the report before the stocktake, others like Saudi Arabia and India have argued that this would make the report of a worse quality and less inclusive of developing countries’ scientists.

Science ‘under attack’ from fossil fuel interests at UN climate talks

The UK-Spanish statement weighed in less explicitly on this issue but said that they “recall the importance of scientific evidence and acknowledge the work of the IPCC in this respect.”

The British and French ministers said they would seek to accelerate reductions of emissions in methane, a particularly potent greenhouse gas, at COP31 in November. They encouraged governments “to work jointly to develop a marketplace for fossil fuels with near-zero methane intensity.”

Methane leaks from oil, gas and coal production are a major contributor to global warming. Over a 20-year period, methane traps around 80 times more heat than carbon dioxide.

Ed Miliband meets José Manuel Albares Bueno in Madrid on 29 July 2026. (Picture by Ed Morris / FCDO)

The UK and Spanish statement emphasised the importance of supporting the Global South and underlined the need to mobilise sustainable financing “at scale with the challenge we face”. The previous UK government, in which Miliband was energy minister, cut climate finance to developing countries to pay for increases in military spending.

The UK government led by new Prime Minister Andy Burnham has yet to outline any major changes to climate finance in its two weeks in power but has announced it will convert some finance from grants to loans in order to free up money to subsidise bus travel in England.

More adaptation needed

Guterres said that “it is time to stop treating each disaster as an isolated tragedy and recognise the systemic risk that is unfolding before our eyes.” A recent study found that three-quarters of UK media reports about the British June heatwave did not mention climate change.

As well as reducing emissions, the UN Secretary-General called for measures to adapt vulnerable people to extreme heat. Specifically, he said that buildings should be built and retrofitted for extreme heat and that every city and country should have heat-health action plans and early warning systems. Over 250 cities have joined the UN’s ‘beat the heat’ initiative, he said.

The Portuguese diplomat called for governments and employers to do more to protect their workers from heat, criticising global fashion brands for not setting heat standards for the factories that supply them. “No one should have to risk their life to earn a living,” he said.

The post UN chief warns climate crisis “in overdrive” as El Niño threatens to fuel the fire appeared first on Climate Home News.

UN chief warns climate crisis “in overdrive” as El Niño threatens to fuel the fire

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‘Ride the wave of momentum’: Australia announces once-in-a-decade Marine Parks Network review

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In response to the federal government announcing its once-in-a-decade review of Australia’s Marine Parks Network, the following lines can be attributed to Elle Lawless, Senior Campaigner at Greenpeace Australia Pacific:

“Greenpeace Australia Pacific welcomes today’s announcement that the Albanese Government will review Australia’s Commonwealth Marine Parks Network. This is a rare, once-in-a-decade opportunity to strengthen our marine parks and ban industrial fishing in Australia’s marine protected areas.

“Australians would be appalled to know that more than half of Australia’s Marine Parks Network currently allows for extractive industries, like longlining, bottom trawling and oil and gas mining. These so-called ‘protected’ areas were designed to safeguard our beloved ocean wildlife and underwater ecosystems – that is what Australians expect. Damaging industrial industries should not be given a free pass to trawl, fish, drill or extract from our marine parks.”

“With the first Ocean COP just around the corner, and off the back of Australia’s move to ratify the Global Ocean Treaty earlier this year, the Australian government has a unique opportunity to ride the wave of this momentum and solidify itself as a true global ocean leader.

“Greenpeace Australia Pacific is calling for industrial activities to be banned from our protected waters and for at least 30% of Australia’s ocean to be protected as ocean sanctuaries. This review presents a rare opportunity to create more ocean sanctuaries, true blue havens where ocean life can recover, thrive and repopulate the surrounding waters.”

—ENDS—

‘Ride the wave of momentum’: Australia announces once-in-a-decade Marine Parks Network review

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Factcheck: No, Europe is not having its ‘quietest’ year for wildfires

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In recent days, prominent climate sceptics and rightwing commentators have shared charts on social media incorrectly implying that Europe is having its “quietest” year for wildfires in 2026.

These include Dr Matthew Wielicki, a former University of Alabama geochemist and self-described “professor in exile”, who was recently appointed by the Trump administration to lead the US Global Change Research Program.

However, these charts paint a misleading picture as they are skewed by encompassing the entirety of Russia in the data – including the vast plains of Siberia.

These charts also use data that include fires that are deliberately lit to manage cropland, which is a declining practice across much of Europe.

In this factcheck, Carbon Brief shows that the area burned by wildfires across the European Union in 2026 is second only to 2022 for this time of year.

The latest data from the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) also shows that France has set a new modern record for area burned and Spain’s wildfire season is among the worst on record.

The fires have displaced more than a third of a million people across south-western Europe, while an impending heatwave has also raised fears of the fires worsening in the coming days.

‘Quietest year’

On 27 July, as wildfires raged across multiple European countries, former Conservative peer and climate-sceptic commentator Matt Ridley posted on Twitter that “2026 is the quietest year for wildfires in Europe by some distance”.

Misleading social media post by Mitt Ridley that says" er...2026 is the quietest year for wild fires un Europe by some distance."

Ridley, who sits on the academic advisory council of the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), a UK-based climate-sceptic lobby group that refuses to reveal the sources of its funding, was responding to an article by Daily Telegraph columnist Tim Stanley.

Stanley’s column, headlined: “Climate change is real – and the right needs to get serious about it”, warned:

“This is no longer a matter of speculation: the wildfires of Europe, pitiless and persistent, are the way we live now.”

Ridley included a chart from Our World In Data, showing the cumulative area burned by wildfires by week for Europe. The chart puts 2026 as having the smallest area for this time of year in a dataset going back to 2012.

Ridley’s post was widely shared by prominent rightwing figures – including Richard Tice, deputy leader of the hard-right, climate-sceptic Reform UK party, former Conservative cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg and multiple commentators.

Separately, Wielicki also shared a chart on Twitter to imply that wildfires in Europe are declining. Wielicki has previously claimed that the “science is not settled on climate change”.

The charts posted by Ridley and Wielicki both use data from the Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS). The GWIS category for “Europe” encompasses all the countries on the continent and includes the whole of Russia.

As a result, Russia accounts for about 74% of the area included in the GWIS definition of “Europe”.

Wildfires in Russia typically account for 80-90% of the burned area in the GWIS Europe dataset. In 2026, fires in Russia are substantially below average. Therefore, including Russia in this comparison creates the false impression that wildfire activity across Europe is unusually low.

Dr Calum Cunningham, a research fellow at the University of Tasmania’s Fire Centre, says that such claims are “highly misleading”, noting that “they rely on aggregating fire activity across an enormous and climatically diverse region”. He tells Carbon Brief:

“A relatively quiet season in Russia can easily mask an exceptionally active season in France or Spain. If the analysis is focused on the regions actually experiencing the current fires, the picture is very different.

“The reality is that western Europe has experienced an extraordinary sequence of climate conditions this year.”

In contrast, the EFFIS provides a subset of wildfire data specifically for the area covered by the 27 nations of the EU, which, therefore, excludes Russia.

Another difference between the two datasets is that GWIS monitors all fires – including those on agricultural land that are intentionally set alight. The burned area as measured by GWIS contains significant cropland area.

By contrast, EFFIS uses land-cover data and other information to filter specifically for forest fires.

Looking at the EU-only data from EFFIS reveals that Europe is far from having its “quietest” year. The bloc’s burned area, as of 29 July, is almost 435,000 hectares (ha) – second only to 2022 for this time of year.

The area burned by wildfires in the EU in 2026 by end of July is second only to 2022. Weekly cumulative burned area (hectares). Line graph shows 2026 burned area reaching over 400,000 hectares by late July, far exceeding the 2006-2025 average. Source: EFFIS - (alt text generated by Google Gemini)

Notably, Wielicki has actually continued to post charts based on GWIS data, even after acknowledging that “includ[ing] all of Russia, including vast areas of Siberia…isn’t a good proxy for Europe”.

French fires

Even looking at EU-wide data misses the scale of this year’s wildfires for some individual countries.

The chart below shows the surge in burned area in France since mid-July.

For much of the first half of the year, the country was having a wildfire season that was only slightly above average in terms of total burned area. However, a notable uptick began in the first week of July.

The third week of the month saw France break its previous cumulative annual record by more than 19,000ha. That gap has widened as the fires continue to burn; as of 29 July, the cumulative burned area in France during 2026 was nearly 24,700ha above the previous record.

France's wildfires in 2026 are the most widespread in modern records. Weekly cumulative burned area (hectares). A line chart shows 2026 burned area sharply rising by August to over 90,000 hectares, well above the 2006-2025 range maximum of around 65,000 and average of 15,000. Source: EFFIS - (alt text generated by Google Gemini)

The fires in France follow a record-breaking June heatwave that “dried out vegetation across the region, allowing fires to spread quickly”, wrote the New York Times.

On 27 July, French president Emmanuel Macron called a “crisis cabinet meeting” in order to address the fires “ravaging several areas of south-west France”, said France 24.

More than 220,000 people have been evacuated due to the Gironde fire, west of Bordeaux, in “what may be France’s largest peacetime evacuation”, reported the Associated Press.

In the Conversation, Cunningham and two other University of Tasmania researchers write that evacuation orders “protec[t] human lives, but makes it more likely houses and other structures will burn if there’s no one to defend them”. They add:

“There is little doubt climate change has made France and Spain’s wildfires worse. They represent yet another reason to redouble our efforts to tackle climate change and stabilise our climate.”

Central Spain scorched

While Spain’s fire season has not broken records in the same way that France’s has, it is on track to be among the worst since EFFIS began reporting data in 2006.

The chart below shows the rapid increase in burned area in Spain since 8 July. The latest data from EFFIS reveal that, as of 29 July, Spain has almost matched its previous record at this point in the year. It is also nearly five times the average area burned for this time of year.

Line chart titled "Spain's 2026 wildfires are among the worst in modern records", subtitle "Weekly cumulative burned area (hectares)". By August, 2026 burned area surges past 200,000 hectares, rising far above the 2006-2025 average and near the upper historical range. Source: EFFIS - (alt text generated by Google Gemini)

In Spain, the wildfires have been concentrated in the central part of the country, near Madrid.

BBC News reported that the fires outside the capital have burned “an area more than twice as large as the city itself”.

Nearly 90,000 people were forced from their homes in central Spain by the fires, said the Associated Press.

Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s prime minister, called the fires a “painful expression” of climate change.

Meanwhile, the UK, French and Spanish governments have issued joint statements this week in response to the fires. The UK/Spain statement begins:

“This summer’s wildfires demonstrated that climate change was now a national security emergency facing Europe and threatening our way of life.”

The post Factcheck: No, Europe is not having its ‘quietest’ year for wildfires appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Factcheck: No, Europe is not having its ‘quietest’ year for wildfires

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