Published

1 month ago

September 27, 2025

Alice Rush

Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This week

China’s new climate pledge

GUTERRES DEMANDS: UN secretary general António Guterres hosted a special climate action summit in New York on Wednesday, the Associated Press reported, alongside the closing day of the UN general assembly. It added that at the “marathon session”, where 121 world leaders were scheduled to speak, Guterres said: “The science demands action. The law commands it. The economics compel it. And people are calling for it.”

CHINA CUTS: First billing went to President Xi Jinping, who unexpectedly appeared via video to announce a target of cutting emissions – from all greenhouse gases and across China’s entire economy – to 7-10% below peak levels by 2035, according to Bloomberg. This is a significant moment for global climate efforts, noted BBC News, as it is the first time that China has pledged to reduce its emissions in absolute terms.

CAUTIOUS RESPONSE: However, the pledge fell short of the “at least 30%” cut observers had said was needed, BBC News added. Carbon Brief has published a detailed Q&A on China’s new climate pledge and will host a free webinar on the topic. Sign up for free.

PLEDGE CONFUSION: The Guardian said “120 countries and the EU announced new goals” at the summit. However, Carbon Brief analysis of the speeches and official submissions found that only 11 countries offered new targets. Following the summit, countries representing half of global emissions have now announced or submitted their 2035 climate pledges, according to analysis just published by Carbon Brief.

Trump’s new climate sledge

‘CLIMATE CON’: The day before the Guterres summit, Donald Trump had used a nearly hour-long speech to the UN general assembly to deliver what the Bloomberg Green newsletter called a “blizzard” of “climate misinformation”. He attracted blanket coverage – and multiple factchecks – for false claims including that climate change was the “greatest con job ever” and that warming predictions were “wrong”.

FACTCHECK: Contrary to Trump’s claims, human-induced warming is an “established fact”, according to the IPCC, as is an increase in the strength and frequency of extreme weather events. Regarding climate models, Carbon Brief climate science contributor Dr Zeke Hausfather noted on Bluesky that projections of warming have been “pretty spot on”.

Around the world

RENEWABLE RECORD: Global investment in renewable energy grew 10% year-on-year to a record $386bn in the first half of 2025, the Guardian said.
CARBON CLUB: COP30 host Brazil is “trying to build a coalition of countries, including the EU and China, to unify carbon markets”, Bloomberg reported.
FOSSILS OUT?: Colombia will host the first-ever international conference on phasing out fossil fuels in 2026, according to Climate Home News. Meanwhile, E&E News covered the latest UN “production gap” report saying, despite a COP28 pledge to transition away from fossil fuels, “many are planning for even more production”.
SUPER TYPHOON: Ragasa, a category 5 “super typhoon” and the world’s most powerful tropical cyclone this year, killed 17 people in Taiwan, BBC News said. The storm, which was “intensified” by climate change according to the Hong Kong Free Press, caused nearly two million residents to be evacuated in China, added Xinhua,
DEFORESTATION DELAY: The EU has delayed the start of its anti-deforestation law “by another year”, Reuters said, blaming “IT system concerns”.
AIRPORT APPROVAL: The UK government approved a second runway at London’s Gatwick airport, said BBC News. The Sunday Times reported that it was also “poised to soften” its ban on new drilling in the North Sea.

62,700

The number of deaths in Europe linked to heat-related causes in 2024, the continent’s hottest year on record, according to new research covered by Reuters.

Latest climate research

Extreme and “unprecedented” global water-scarcity events – or “day-zero droughts” – could happen in the 2020s and 2030s | Nature Communications
The drying of the Ganga river, of great economic and cultural importance to millions of people in India, Nepal and Bangladesh, is “unprecedented in the last 1,300 years” | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
The likelihood of “severe bushfires danger” in Australia driven by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole has increased by 16-32% due to climate change | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

China’s new climate pledge, outlined by President Xi Jinping, includes a target to reduce “economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions” to 7-10% below peak levels by 2035. But, as Carbon Brief explained in a detailed Q&A, this falls short of what would have been needed to contribute to limiting warming to 1.5C, according to experts.

Spotlight

Can COP30 respond to the 1.5C challenge?

With hopes fading of keeping global warming below 1.5C, despite new pledges at a UN summit in New York, this spotlight looks at the road to COP30 in Brazil and how the climate talks might respond.

After 2024 marked the hottest year on record and the first above 1.5C, 2025 was supposed to offer a chance to “course correct” through new, more ambitious national climate plans.

Instead, many countries have missed repeated deadlines for updated “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, setting out their plans to 2035.

Despite some new pledges in New York this week – including from China – collective efforts still “fall short” of limiting warming to the Paris goals of “well-below” 2C while “pursuing efforts” towards 1.5C.

Drumbeat of ‘disappointment’

This message is likely to be reinforced by a UN “synthesis report”, compiling the impact of new NDCs and due to be published on 24 October.

It will likely be reiterated in early November by the UN’s annual “emissions gap” report. Last year’s report had called for a “quantum leap” in ambition, which has yet to materialise.

This is all despite an advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice in July, which said that 1.5C should be considered the “primary temperature goal” of global climate efforts – and that countries should make “adequate contributions” towards meeting it.

Meanwhile, amid oil and gas advocacy from the Trump administration, debate is raging over whether fossil fuels have peaked – and whether climate efforts need a “pragmatic” reset.

This is set to culminate with a battle to control the narrative around the International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook for 2025, also due in early November.

Avantika Goswami, programme manager for climate change at India’s Centre for Science and Environment, told Carbon Brief that the global climate regime was at a “turning point”, where agreements had been signed and targets set, but action was “stalling”. She said:

“Implementation is weak, finance is undelivered and trust in the UN system is eroding, amid trade wars, militarism, debt crises and fractured multilateralism.”

Can COP30 respond?

Just days after the raft of new reports, on 6-7 November, heads of state and government will gather in the Brazilian city of Belém for a leaders summit ahead of the COP30 climate talks.

Views differ on how COP30 should respond to the current challenges.

The Brazilian presidency is pushing for a formal COP decision on any “disappoint[ment]” over NDCs falling short, collectively, of what is needed to avoid dangerous global warming.

During initial consultations, the EU said it wanted climate ambition to be added to the COP agenda, while the groups of least developed countries (LDCs), small island states and Latin American countries supported a formal COP decision on the matter. Others pushed back.

Catherine Abreu, director of the International Climate Politics Hub, told Carbon Brief that COP30 would need to respond in some way. She said:

“It’s clear that credibility at COP30 will require a response to the fact that countries’ climate pledges don’t add up to the level of ambition needed to tackle the crisis. The question after this week is, how will the COP outcomes enrich our definition of ambition beyond a headline emissions reduction goal?”

Abreu added that COP30 would need to address barriers, including “the equitable finance needed to implement goals and a lagging transition away from fossil fuels”.

Amid frustration over slow progress, calls for reform of the COP process are getting louder.

Goswami concluded: “The needs and ambitions of the global south must now shape the climate narrative – and COP30 must reckon with this new balance of power.”

Watch, read, listen

GAME OVER?: A feature in the Wall Street Journal said that, as Trump “doubles down on fossil fuels”, the US is “forfeiting the clean-energy race to China”.

POPULIST PUSHBACK: The Drilled podcast talked to a sociologist and a political scientist about “the intersection between the rise of rightwing populism and increasing resistance to acting on climate”.

ADULTS ONLY: For the New York Times, the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Li Shuo wrote that China was “the adult in the room on climate now”, despite its “modest” new pledge.

Coming up

22-26 September: Fifth world congress of biosphere reserves, Hangzhou, China
27 September: Seychelles elections
28 September: Moldova elections
30 September-1 October: 42nd UN water meeting, Geneva, Switzerland

Pick of the jobs

Indigenous Climate Action, research coordinator | Salary: $55,000-$68,000. Location: Remote
Greater London Authority, head of climate change | Salary: £91,268. Location: London
Stockholm Environment Institute, research fellow: climate impact and climate finance | Salary: Unknown. Location: Nairobi, Kenya

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

The post DeBriefed 26 September 2025: China leads new climate pledges; Trump calls warming a ‘con job’; What comes next appeared first on Carbon Brief.

DeBriefed 26 September 2025: China leads new climate pledges; Trump calls warming a ‘con job’; What comes next

Climate Change

Can COP30 mark a turning point for climate adaptation?

Published

7 hours ago

October 27, 2025

Alice Rush

Cristina Rumbaitis del Rio is a senior advisor on adaptation and resilience and Pan Ei Ei Phyoe is a climate adaptation and resilience consultant with the United Nations Foundation.

COP 30 compels the world to make a decision. Already 3.6 billion people are highly vulnerable to rapidly worsening climate impacts such as droughts, floods, and heat stress. Meanwhile, Glasgow-era climate finance commitments are expiring, and elements of the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) are yet to be finalized.

This November provides the opportunity to elevate the issue of adaptation and resilience – and for countries to demonstrate they grasp the urgency and are prepared to act.

Success at COP30 will hinge on how three key questions are answered:

Will countries agree on a new adaptation finance target backed with real commitments?
Will countries finalize architecture to track progress toward the Global Goal on Adaptation and implement the UAE Targets for Global Climate Resilience?
Will adaptation receive elevated political attention at COP30?

A new adaptation finance target backed with real commitments

Belém will test whether negotiators can agree on a new adaptation finance goal that is anchored in clear targets, timelines, and accountability. The Glasgow Climate Pact’s goal to double adaptation finance is set to reach its deadline at the end of this year and countries are facing the question of what, if anything, comes next.

The form of the finance goal also matters: will it be a provision-based target ensuring measurable public contributions, or a mobilization target dependent on less transparent private leverage?

After two consecutive years of falling short, all eyes will be on whether the Adaptation Fund can finally meet its mobilization target and secure a multi-year replenishment to deliver predictable support.

Multilateral development banks (MDBs) are under pressure to demonstrate how to integrate adaptation into country-platform approaches including aligning finance for accelerated country-driven action and providing fast-start financing for implementation of National Adaptation Plans. NAPs have been completed by 67 developing countries and are underway in another 77 countries.

Climate adaptation can’t be just for the rich, COP30 president says

Vulnerable countries currently need an estimated $215 billion-$387 billion annually to adapt to climate change, far exceeding available funding. And developed countries face growing expectations to renew or grow their bilateral commitments beyond Glasgow-era pledges that are expiring this year or next.

Without tangible new finance commitments, the ambition of the Global Goal on Adaptation risks remaining rhetorical.

System to track progress on the Global Goal on Adaptation

The GGA still has no mechanism to measure progress, despite being established under the Paris Agreement in 2015, shaped through multiple work programs since 2021, and further expanded by the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience of COP28 which set 11 targets and launched the UAE-Belém Work Programme.

Agreeing on a robust, streamlined indicator set that is both scientifically sound and usable by countries with differing capacities will be one of the hardest tasks at COP 30. These outcomes will be a test of whether we can move from measuring resilience to building it.

Foreign aid cuts put adaptation finance pledge at risk, NGOs warn

Negotiators must settle the inclusion of equitable means-of-implementation indicators covering finance, technology, and capacity building. Finally, they must decide what comes next under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change to ensure the UAE targets are acted upon within the next two to five years.

Those targets include seven that set resilience priorities for water and sanitation, food and agriculture, health, ecosystems, infrastructure, livelihoods and cultural heritage.

Adaptation needs greater political attention at COP30

Last week, COP30 President Corrêa do Lago released the first-ever COP presidency letter focused on elevating adaptation, calling for solutions that will make Belém the “COP of adaptation implementation”. His task now is to embed that principle across every strand of COP30’s delivery architecture.

One test lies in how realistically adaptation is integrated into the Baku-to-Belém Roadmap to $1.3 trillion to be released by the presidency. The implementation of the COP 30 Action Agenda, which provides a blueprint for collective climate action and solutions, could become the bridge between political vision and practical delivery on adaptation.

Momentum builds for strong adaptation outcome at COP30

Questions remain on whether Brazil’s leadership on adaptation thus far will position adaptation as a political priority that will be reflected in leaders’ statements at the opening of COP30. The inaugural High-level Dialogue on Adaptation – hosted by the outgoing COP President Azerbaijan and Brazil – is another opportunity where countries can reaffirm and institutionalize adaptation as a permanent pillar of climate action.

In the role as the host and president of COP30, Brazil has repeatedly stressed the importance of matching adaptation with actual resources and accountability, highlighting adaptation as one of the five guiding stars of the Paris Agreement alongside mitigation, finance, technology, and capacity building.

With the right outcomes in Belém on finance targets, measurement systems, and political commitments, COP30 could be remembered as the moment adaptation financing and implementation finally matched the scale of the challenge.

The post Can COP30 mark a turning point for climate adaptation? appeared first on Climate Home News.

Can COP30 mark a turning point for climate adaptation?

Climate Change

Cranberry Farmers Consider Turning Bogs into Wetlands in Massachusetts As Temperatures Rise

Published

11 hours ago

October 27, 2025

Alice Rush

The state is helping to transform cranberry bogs to into habitats that broaden conservation and climate change resilience.

By Nicole Williams

What happens when a region no longer has the ideal climate for its star crop?

Cranberry Farmers Consider Turning Bogs into Wetlands in Massachusetts As Temperatures Rise

Climate Change

As Lake Powell Recedes, Beavers are Building Back

Published

11 hours ago

October 27, 2025

Alice Rush

The decline of the reservoir threatens the water and electricity for 40 million people, but is resurfacing vast canyons and lush riversides that the aquatic rodents engineer into robust habitats for many species.

By Alex Hager, KUNC

To hike up this narrow canyon, Eric Balken pushed through dense thickets of green. In the shadow of towering red rock walls, his route along a muddy creekbed was lined with bushes and the subtle hum of life. The canyon echoed the buzzing and chirping of bugs and toads. But not long ago, this exact spot was at the bottom of a reservoir.