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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed. 
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This week

Climate chaos

DEADLY DISASTER: Devastating landslides have killed 167 people, with another 191 missing, in the Wayanad district in Kerala, India, reported the Indian Express. Prime minister Narendra Modi announced compensation of 200,000 Indian rupees (about $2,390) per person for the families of the deceased and 50,000 rupees (about $600) for those injured, the newspaper said.

CLIMATE FACTOR: The Hindustan Times noted that scientists have attributed the landslide to a “combination of climate change, excessive mining and loss of forest cover in the region”. Opposition leader Rahul Gandhi called for “mapping of landslide-prone areas and…an action plan to address the growing frequency of natural calamities in the ecologically fragile region”, reported the Independent.

FLASH FLOODS: More than 10,000 people displaced from conflict in Sudan’s Sennar state – alongside other refugee and host communities – have been severely impacted by extreme rainfall and flash floods in Kassala state, reported the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. At least five people have reportedly died, including a child, the report said. Other affected areas include Aj Jazirah, East Darfur and North Kordofan, according to ReliefWeb.

Sizzling Olympics

HEATWAVE GAMES: A rapid attribution analysis found that the “heat dome” striking the Paris Olympics and the “scorching temperatures” across western Europe and North Africa this week would have been “impossible” without the “fossil-fuelled climate crisis”, reported the Guardian. Scientists at the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group said human-caused global warming made the heatwave “2.5C to 3.3C hotter”. Leading climate scientist Dr Friederike Otto told reporters: “Climate change crashed the Olympics on Tuesday.”.

KEEPING COOL: BBC Sport said that organisers used hoses and misters to keep spectators cool at the Paris Olympics. In Marseille, where temperatures reached around 40C, athletes taking part in sailing events wore “ice vests” to try to counteract the heat, the broadcaster added.

TRIATHLON TIMEOUT: The men’s triathlon was postponed due to “unsafe pollution levels” in the Seine following heavy rainfall in the French capital, reported Sky Sports. The organisers blamed the postponement on climate change, with Aurélie Merle – the Paris 2024 director of sports – saying: “We are living in the 21st century where, unfortunately, there are far more meteorological events…which are beyond the control of the organisers.”

Around the world

  • UK RENEWABLES: UK energy secretary Ed Miliband announced an increase to this year’s renewable energy auction budget to a record £1.56bn on Wednesday, reported BBC News.
  • HARRIS APPROVED: Inside Climate News reported that Kamala Harris has clinched an endorsement from the Green New Deal Network – “a key coalition of progressive, youth-led and environmental justice-focused climate advocates” – which had previously held back its endorsement for president Joe Biden. 
  • FUND FIGHT: The EU is gearing up to pressure wealthier “emerging” economies, such as China, to pay into the climate fund at the COP29 climate summit, reported Politico. Currently, only countries categorised as “industrialised” under the 1992 UN climate treaty contribute climate finance under the Paris Agreement. 
  • OFFSETS BLOW: A review by the Science Based Targets initiative, a global auditor of corporate climate targets, has concluded that “various types of carbon credits are ineffective”, reported Bloomberg
  • COP16 SAFE: Reuters reported that “Colombian rebel group” Estado Mayor Central has withdrawn its threat, issued earlier this month, to disrupt the UN biodiversity summit COP16 taking place in October in the Colombian city Cali – as a “gesture of [their] will for peace”. 

7,500,000

The methane emissions, in tonnes, from US oil and gas facilities – four times more than the estimates of regulators – which is equivalent to the annual energy needs of over half of US homes, reported the Financial Times.


Latest climate research

  • A new research paper published in Nature Communications found that current policies put the world on a trajectory with a 45% chance of crossing tipping points in the Earth system by 2300, even if the global average temperature is brought back to 1.5C later on. Carbon Brief had all the details. 
  • The UK would gain “benefits” worth £164bn if it meets its 2033-2037 climate targets, said a study published in the Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences covered by Carbon Brief
  • A new study in BioScience proposed a way to preserve the Earth’s “increasingly threatened” biodiversity on the moon through the creation of a lunar biorepository – a storage facility for biosamples – by developing a system using cryopreserved fish fins. 

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

Deep-sea mining mapped

Deep-sea mining mapped

Carbon Brief published an in-depth explainer this week into what the emerging field of deep-sea mining means for climate change and biodiversity. The map, taken from the article, shows the current designated areas for deep-sea mining exploration, with each of the orange dots representing exploration contracts within four significant zones: Clarion-Clipperton Zone, Mid-Atlantic Ridge, Indian Ocean and Northwest Pacific Ocean. The colours indicate the types of deep-sea mineral resources targeted. Polymetallic nodules – formed of iron and manganese silicates and hydroxides – are in green. Polymetallic sulphides – with copper, zinc, lead, iron, silver and gold – are in blue. Cobalt-rich ferromanganese crusts – with high cobalt concentration and other rare elements – are in pink.

Spotlight

Tuvalu’s plan to be first ‘digital nation’

This week, Carbon Brief reports on how the Pacific island nation of Tuvalu is aiming to become the world’s first digital nation in response to climate change.

Tuvalu, a small nation comprising a group of nine islands in the South Pacific, is among the most vulnerable to climate change. The Guardian has reported that rising sea levels are an “existential threat” for island nations such as Tuvalu. In 2023, a NASA report indicated that sea levels in Tuvalu had risen nearly six inches (15cm) over the past 30 years.

Estimates show that, by 2050, more than half of the land area of Funafuti – the capital – could be flooded.

According to the Pacific Regional Environment Programme, less than 0.03% of global greenhouse gas emissions come from the Pacific Island region.

Yet, as Tuvaluan minister Simon Kofe noted in his address to the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow in 2021 while standing knee-deep in the sea, “Tuvalu is sinking”. Invoking the issue of climate justice, he said:

“In Tuvalu, we are living with the realities of climate change and sea level rise.”

Rising sea levels in Tuvalu are already “leaching soil, killing crops and spoiling drinking water”. A recent National Geographic article also underscored food security challenges, with cultivating staple crops such as taro, breadfruit and coconut becoming difficult due to seawater infiltration. Flooding has become routine, with intense tides sweeping over the sole airstrip and homes monthly.

Facing the possibility of becoming entirely submerged and uninhabitable, Tuvalu has developed the Future Now project and aims to become the world’s “first digital nation”, existing in the “metaverse”, a virtual reality project started by Facebook.

Digital replicas

Addressing delegates in his COP27 speech, Kofe, standing in front of a digital replica of Te Afualiku, the first island in Tuvalu to be digitised, said:

“As our land disappears, we have no choice but to become the world’s first digital nation.”

This serves as the model for the digital recreation of all Tuvalu’s islands and its landscape, including “the coral atolls and reefs, the lagoon, the porous sandy soil, the palm trees and what is left of the pandanus, breadfruit and taro” – before it potentially physically disappears, he said.

The plan includes using satellite imagery, photographs and drone footage capable of capturing details as fine as grains of sand on the beach and the direction of ocean currents.

Tuvalu has completed a thorough three-dimensional LIDAR scan of all 124 islands and islets and began enhancing its national communications network – laying the groundwork for its digital nation, Kofe told delegates at COP28.

It has also started exploring a digital ID system using blockchain technology to connect the Tuvaluan diaspora, enabling their participation from across the world, the project developers said. This digital platform will allow Tuvaluans to connect, explore their heritage and engage in new business opportunities across various sectors, they added.

Additionally, the project has begun the development of a digital archive of Tuvaluan culture, with contributions from citizens who were encouraged to preserve their most valued personal items to create an evolving record of their heritage.

‘Digital sovereignty’

If Tuvalu’s physical land becomes uninhabitable, it also prompts a discussion of statehood and sovereignty. Under current international law, a defined physical territory is a prerequisite for statehood.

In order to become the first digital nation, Tuvalu – recognising the evolving notion of state sovereignty – redefined statehood through a constitutional amendment in 2022 to say:

“The State of Tuvalu within its historical, cultural and legal framework shall remain in perpetuity in the future, notwithstanding the impacts of climate change or other causes resulting in loss to the physical territory of Tuvalu.”

Tuvalu’s permanent and digital sovereignty is now recognised by 25 countries, with the Pacific Island Forum also redefining its territory, maintaining that its statehood would continue regardless of the impacts of climate change.

Watch, read, listen

GLACIAL MELT: Tortoise Media’s Slow Newscast podcast talked about the “unlikely” climate activists in Switzerland who won a key climate change case, but now face backlash.

SOLARE CANTARE: The Volts podcast spoke with Joel Jean, co-founder and CEO of Swift Solar, to explain all about perovskite solar.

NIGERIA’S ‘OIL CURSE’: A new FT Film explored the challenges facing Nigeria’s oil sector and whether ending fuel subsidies could help to break the “oil curse”.

Coming up

Pick of the jobs

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

The post DeBriefed 2 August 2024: Deadly rains from India to Sudan; ‘Fossil-fuelled’ heat hits Olympics; Tuvalu’s plan to be first ‘digital nation’ appeared first on Carbon Brief.

DeBriefed 2 August 2024: Deadly rains from India to Sudan; ‘Fossil-fuelled’ heat hits Olympics; Tuvalu’s plan to be first ‘digital nation’

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DeBriefed 29 May 2026: Europe’s ‘mind-boggling’ May | Indian heat deaths | Nigeria’s solar mini-grids

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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This week

UK, Europe and India battle heatwaves

‘MIND-BOGGLING’ MAY: The UK and continental Europe have set “mind-boggingly crazy”  temperature records for May amid a deadly heatwave, reported the Financial Times. According to the Associated Press, the UK “smashed a century-old temperature record for the second time in 24 hours on Tuesday”. The newswire added that records “also fell in France, where temperatures reached 36C on Monday in the country’s south-west”. On Wednesday, Portugal hit a record May temperature of 40.3C, said BBC News.

‘BRUTAL REMINDER’:  In parts of Italy, the heatwave triggered blackouts, reported Reuters. The heatwave has also been linked to more than a dozen deaths in the UK and France, including from people drowning and suffering heat-related deaths while competing in sporting events, said ABC News. Simon Stiell, the executive secretary of UN Climate Change, said the intense heatwaves were a “brutal reminder” of the cost of global warming, reported Politico. Carbon Brief has in-depth coverage of the record-shattering heatwave.
INDIA’S DEADLY HEAT: In the southern Indian states of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, more than 100 people died within three days following an intense heatwave, reported the Khaleej Times. The publication noted that authorities urged people to stay indoors and avoid direct exposure to the heat. Meanwhile, some parts of India are “grappling with power cuts as record-breaking heat has pushed electricity demand ​to an all-time high”, reported Reuters.

Around the world

  • CRUDE DIPS: The International Energy Agency (IEA) said global investments in oil projects will fall below $500bn in 2026, continuing a three-year decline, reported Bloomberg. Carbon Brief’s analysis of the data shows the US’s “data-centre boom” means it is now investing more in fossil-fuel power than China.
  • DODGING NET-ZERO: The world’s biggest miner, Australian giant BHP, has backtracked on climate action by halting or delaying projects to cut “vast” amounts of emissions, according to a Guardian investigation.
  • SOLAR SLIP: China’s new solar installations dropped for a fourth straight month, reflecting weakening domestic demand, said Bloomberg.
  • NO LOGGING: Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon fell last year to its lowest level since 2019, according to a new report, said Agence France-Presse.
  • EXECUTIVE ACTION: Puerto Rico’s governor announced a state of emergency to fight a surge in coastal erosion, citing the need to protect natural resources and vulnerable communities, reported the Associated Press.

Four million

The number of homes in the UK with air conditioning, double the figure from three years ago, reported the Guardian. There are 29m households in the UK.


Latest climate research

  • Carbon Brief will soon be launching a new fortnightly newsletter focused on climate research. Sign up for free today.
  • LGBTQ+ households in the US are “significantly more likely” to face energy poverty and insecurity than the general population | Energy Research & Social Science
  • Global rice-paddy greenhouse gas emissions have doubled over the past six decades | Nature Food
  • Vegetation greening and human-caused warming are the “main drivers” of a surge in flash floods over the last decade | Science Advances

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

Map of the UK showing that at least 67 NHS sites have been forced to close due to weather-related flooding since 2021

A Carbon Brief investigation has shed light on the impact of weather-related flooding on National Health Service (NHS) facilities across the UK. At least 67 NHS hospital wards, departments and other sites have been forced to temporarily close or relocate due to weather-related flooding. The chart above shows sites of weather-related flooding incidents at NHS facilities. The size of the circles indicates the number of incidents reported at each site.

Spotlight

How solar mini-grids can ‘help boost’ Nigeria’s economy

This week, Carbon Brief covers a new report on Nigeria’s solar mini-grid industry.

Amid the impact of the US-Iran war on the Nigerian economy, a new report has argued that solar-mini grids can help to reduce the country’s reliance on fossil fuels and create more than 200,000 jobs.

In Nigeria, Africa’s third-largest economy, the war has led to an increase in energy prices and a decrease in petrol consumption. Petrol is one of the country’s main sources of transport and household fuel. According to one estimate, prices have surged by up to 40% since the conflict commenced in February.

Although the Nigerian treasury has benefited from rising crude oil prices – the country is a major exporter of oil and gas – the impact has been most visible on the wider population.

Rising energy prices “have affected the purchasing power of workers”, Agnes Funmi Sessi, a labour union leader in Lagos, told Carbon Brief.

However, scaling the deployment of solar “mini-grids” could help the country move away from fossil fuels, stimulate rural economies and improve livelihoods, according to the new report authored by the thinktank, the Africa Policy Research Institute.

“We estimate that, by deploying over 10,000 mini-grids, the sector could create 212,688 direct full-time informal and productive-use jobs across the off-grid and under-grid market segments,” the report said.

A nascent industry

Solar “mini-grids” are small-scale, localised electricity generation and distribution systems powered by solar panels.

The report positioned Nigeria’s mini-grid sector as one of the fastest-growing in Africa, with the country having just 11 mini-grids in 2015 and 155 by 2024, along with at least 42 active developers.

Many of the companies within the sector are young and apply novel local techniques in their deployment of solar technology, the report said.

However, access to finance remains a huge barrier. According to the report, the sector may require up to $8bn to connect 35.4 million people to mini-grids.

“Most Nigerians want solar power in their homes, but it is a capital intensive business for vendors and customers,” Dr Ben Iheagwara, a renewable energy entrepreneur and policy analyst, told Carbon Brief.

The report urged the Nigerian government and its international partners to “attract private capital by de-risking investments and ensuring regulatory clarity and long-term planning”.

Other key recommendations for policymakers and stakeholders include investment in skills development and paying attention to the gender gap.

Powering rural communities

Many rural communities, which make up about 37% of the country, are disconnected from the national grid system, so often have to generate their own electricity through mini-grid systems.

According to Nigeria’s electricity regulator, NERC, a mini-grid is defined as a power generating system with an installed capacity of up to 10 megawatts.

A mini-grid can be powered by fossil fuels such as diesel or petrol, but solar power is now considered a cheaper and cleaner source.

With more than 80 million people lacking access to electricity in Nigeria, solar mini-grids are increasingly viewed as the lowest-cost electrification solution, the report said.

Watch, read, listen

MOVING FORWARD: The Energy Transition Show dug into electricity reform in South Africa, discussing the country’s coal legacy and the role of renewables.

ENERGY POVERTY: In an opinion article for Project Syndicate, executive director of the African Climate Foundation, Saliem Fakir, argued that the energy transition in emerging and developing economies is driven by economics and security rather than emissions targets.
VANISHING CITY: BBC News reported on a coastal community in Nigeria where the ocean has “already swallowed more than half of the town”.

Coming up

Pick of the jobs

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

The post DeBriefed 29 May 2026: Europe’s ‘mind-boggling’ May | Indian heat deaths | Nigeria’s solar mini-grids appeared first on Carbon Brief.

DeBriefed 29 May 2026: Europe’s ‘mind-boggling’ May | Indian heat deaths | Nigeria’s solar mini-grids

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Q&A: How can African electricity access power jobs not just lightbulbs?

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At the African Development Bank (AfDB) annual meetings this week, several African leaders called for investments in electricity infrastructure which go beyond lighting homes to powering economies.

Applauding the AfDB for its energy programmes like Mission 300 – which aims to provide electricity access to 300 million Africans by 2030 – the Central African Republic’s President Faustin-Archange Touadera said that without power supply “we will not be able to achieve development”.

Speaking alongside him, the Republic of Congo’s President Denis Sassou Nguesso echoed this, saying that “as we need to help our people to turn towards agriculture, to turn towards livestock rearing, we also need to provide power to them.”

As the Mission 300 initiative advances, attention is increasingly shifting from simply connecting households to ensuring that electricity access translates into economic opportunities and livelihoods. That shift is driving the launch of a new Centre of Excellence for Productive Use of Energy being developed under Mission 300 by the philanthropically funded Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet (GEAPP).

    In an interview with Climate Home News, Carol Koech, GEAPP’s vice president for Africa, said the initiative is designed to ensure that electrification supports income generation, agriculture and local economic development rather than only basic household access.

    Q: What is the Centre of Excellence for Productive Use of Energy aiming to achieve with Mission 300?

    A: Mission 300 is increasingly being seen as a job platform and so the role of the Centre of Excellence in translating those electricity connections to jobs. So we want the centre to do four things. First, as a delivery engine, which enables countries to embed a cross-institutional advisor that supports the electrification components, but also other components that are happening in the country.

    Second, we want the centre to be an innovation and strategy hub. Today, there’s really no place where you can go to find the state of the industry for productive use of energy across the globe, and we want to make the centre of excellence the place where you can go and get information about what technologies are available, where deployment is happening and how much is being deployed.

    Campaigners in Africa are demanding their governments stop the development of fossil fuels on the continent and embrace the opportunities of renewable energy
    (Photo: Lighting Global/SunCulture/World Bank)

    The third pillar is to coordinate and mobilise capital. We anticipate the centre coordinating internally within the ecosystem but also mobilising additional financing to help productivity. The last piece is how to scale businesses, enterprises and partnerships around this centre because we anticipate that as we grow this space, new industries will emerge and those industries will need to be supported.

    Q: Why is productive use of energy becoming important under Mission 300?

    A: Mission 300 gave us a bigger platform to demonstrate that energy is truly an enabler for economic development. It’s not sufficient to just provide a connection, but it is required that that connection truly translates to economic development for the communities that benefit.

    We shouldn’t bring electricity and then start thinking about what people can do with it. We need to think about both at the same time and ensure electricity arrives together with the things that will make a difference in people’s lives. Historically, we’ve brought electricity and imagined a miracle would happen, but we know that hasn’t been the case.

    The question is how to ensure universal access in the cheapest way while still transforming communities. Some mini-grids have been deployed in places where demand is extremely low, making them too expensive to sustain. But when mini-grids are paired with productive uses, the economics start to change. If businesses currently running on fossil fuel generators move to solar or renewable energy, operating costs fall and the business case for mini-grids becomes much stronger.

    Q: How could this work in practice for agriculture and rural communities?

    A: I’ll give you a practical example in our pilot country Zambia. Zambia has two programmes, they have the ASCENT programme for energy access and they also have the Zambia agribusiness and trade platform (ZATP). Some of the components of the ZATP programme – which is an agri-business program to help farmers to be productive – have a productive use component but don’t have an energy supply component. So we’re offering things like mills, processing facilities, irrigation and others. In some parts of Zambia, these productive use equipment has been supplied but has not been powered, so communities are not benefiting from that.

    So the whole point is if we coordinate where the agribusiness programme is deployed together with where the energy access programme is deployed and layer those two programmes together in one place, then you could solve the energy access problem and solve productive use together and therefore have really meaningful outcomes for communities.

    Q: How will the centre help both households and small businesses use electricity productively?

    A: The question on whether we should electrify households or businesses is neither here nor there. We need to electrify all. The argument is really once we electrify businesses, the owners of those businesses will be able to pay what they need for their households as well as increase production for their businesses.

    Electricity consumption is usually an indicator of economic development and by pushing productive use into households, especially where households are also smallholder farmers, the question becomes: how can electricity access translate to additional economic development for them? If you are connected onto a mini-grid, then you can actually use that connection to run irrigation, put in a dryer, or a cold storage system, whatever you require to improve your income but the fact that you have energy means that you can access productive use. Now, we need to ask ourselves how do these farmers or these households then get access to these appliances, because that’s another barrier.

    Q&A: Will subsidy cuts for Chinese clean-tech exports hurt Africa’s solar boom?

    The cost of these appliances is usually extremely high, and when you have programmes such as the ZATP running in Zambia, that’s already a public funding approach to making these appliances available and potentially reachable for farmers, either at household level, at farm level or at community level.

    Q: How does this complement the already existing Mission 300 national energy compacts designed by countries?

    A: Each of the national energy compacts have a productive use component, a pillar that talks about distributed renewable energy, productive use, and clean cooking. This is actually complementing the work of the countries, and this centre is like an available support, back office for countries to tap into as they implement their national energy compacts, if they have specific requirements and support for that pillar three.

    So the advisers that will be embedded into countries, their role is to coordinate within country programs that are running where energy could make a difference. The advisers will be sourced from the country and so they will make sure that the donor money is coordinated to benefit the country fully. Their role will include going to ministries of agriculture or any related ministries and understanding where they are prioritising programmes that require electrification. In many cases, programmes and money have already been allocated, but this component is about how do we deploy it in a way that it actually truly brings a difference, so those advisers will do that.

    Q: How will the centre address financing and private sector investment challenges?

    A: What we’re really looking at is different financing mechanisms. In the past, we have provided subsidies and results-based financing to suppliers, distributors and manufacturers to help create markets for productive-use appliances. I see this as one mechanism the centre could use, but the bigger opportunity is aligning public funding across different programmes so that more of it can support productive uses, either through direct funding or subsidies.

    Nigerians bet on solar as global oil shock hits wallets and power supplies

    When it comes to private sector investment, the reality is that Africa’s energy sector still faces serious constraints. Most private investment has gone into power generation, particularly through independent power producers, and even then that has only been possible in places where the off-takers, usually utilities, are bankable.

    To unlock more private capital, countries need the right policies, reforms and regulations, but even more importantly, utilities must become financially viable. If the off-taker is not bankable, then the project is not bankable.

    Another major question is how to attract private investment into transmission infrastructure. There are different models being explored, but the reality is that public funding alone is not sufficient to achieve Mission 300, so finding new ways to mobilise private capital will be critical.

    The post Q&A: How can African electricity access power jobs not just lightbulbs? appeared first on Climate Home News.

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    AI boom means US is now ‘investing more’ in fossil-fuel power than China

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    The “data-centre boom” is driving a surge in gas investment in the US, pushing its fossil-power spending ahead of China, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

    A rapid expansion of data centres across the nation is at the heart of the US tech sector’s plans to continue “dominat[ing]” the global artificial intelligence (AI) industry.

    High demand for electricity to power these data centres has led to companies rushing to build new gas-fired power plants across the country.

    This trend, combined with “soaring” gas-turbine prices, drove a threefold increase in US gas‑power investment in 2025 – and the IEA expects this to continue throughout 2026.

    As the chart below shows, Chinese investment in coal- and gas-fired power is expected to drop this year, amid domestic policy changes and the Iran war sending gas prices spiralling.

    Together, these trends mean the IEA expects US investment in fossil-fuelled power plants to overtake China’s in 2026.

    Annual investment in fossil-fuel power in China and the US
    Annual investment in fossil-fuel power in China and the US, $bn. The figure for 2026 is an IEA estimate, based on current trends. Source: IEA.

    The IEA’s latest world energy investment report shows that spending on renewables and electricity grids continues to dominate at the global scale.

    In the US, Trump administration policies such as the phase-out of tax credits for renewables has led to the IEA revising its forecast for new wind and solar power downwards.

    At the same time, US electricity demand is expected to rise by an average of 2% per year from 2026 to 2030, with data centres contributing half of the overall increase.

    This is leading to what the IEA calls an “AI-driven push” to build new gas-power plants in the US, the world’s largest data-centre market and largest gas producer.

    Globally, orders for new gas-power plants increased to 130 gigawatts (GW) in 2025 – a 25-year high – and US demand was a “major factor” in this, according to the IEA.

    Much of the demand is coming from tech companies in the US seeking to bypass grid connection queues by building “captive” gas-power plants.

    As the chart below shows, since the start of 2025 these US captive data centres alone have signed off on more investment in new gas turbines than any country in the world – aside from the US itself.

    Total value of new gas generation final investment decisions
    Total value of new gas generation final investment decisions by country, region or use-case, between 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, $bn. Source: IEA.

    Overall, investment in grid upgrades, power equipment and electricity generation to support the buildout of data-centre infrastructure around the world hit $105bn in 2025, according to the IEA.

    This is more than the total invested in the energy sector across the whole of Africa – a continent where more than 600 million people do not have access to electricity.

    The IEA notes that strong demand for gas-power plants for data centres in the US – and, to a lesser extent, the Middle East – is “limiting the availability of turbines for near-term deployment elsewhere in the world”.

    The agency also points out that as the tech sector becomes a “major energy investor”, accounting for around 40% of all corporate power-purchase agreements, it is also “underpinning momentum” for emerging clean technologies, such as small modular nuclear reactors and advanced geothermal.

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