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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This week

Energy outlook

DEMAND SURGING: The International Energy Agency (IEA) published its annual World Energy Outlook report – a “comprehensive” summary of global energy trends – the New York Times reported. The outlet said, over the next decade, the world will add the equivalent of Japan’s annual electricity demand each year, driven by demand for new factories, electric vehicles, air-conditioners and data centres. (Axios said the IEA included a “reality check” about data centre demand, which would only make up a “small share” of growth by 2030.)

AGE OF ELECTRICITY: Reuters reported that the “world is on the brink of a new age of electricity”, with global fossil fuel demand set to peak by the end of the decade. The newswire added that “surplus oil and gas supplies could drive investment into green energy”. The Wall Street Journal said clean energy would grow faster than global energy demand, becoming the largest source of power in the mid-2030s, according to the IEA. Carbon Brief has just published an in-depth analysis of the report’s findings. (See Captured below.)

COP16 kickoff

BIODIVERSITY TALKS: The COP16 biodiversity summit begins in Cali, Colombia, on Monday. It will be the first set of UN biodiversity negotiations since the world’s nations agreed a landmark deal in 2022 to “halt and reverse” nature loss by the end of the decade.

MISSED PLEDGES: Joint analysis published on Tuesday by Carbon Brief and the Guardian showed that more than 85% of countries are set to miss the UN’s deadline to submit new nature pledges, known as national biodiversity strategies and action plans (NBSAPs).

WHAT TO WATCH: Carbon Brief’s team of journalists on the ground in Cali will host a webinar on Tuesday at 3pm UK time to discuss the key issues facing negotiators and answering questions. (Sign up for free.) Through the fortnight of the talks, they will also be scrutinising each new draft negotiating text as it lands, explaining areas of disagreement and updating Carbon Brief’s interactive text tracker.

After the storm

DEVASTATING DAMAGES: Hurricanes Helene and Milton are “likely” to each rack up costs of more than $50bn, the Associated Press reported. According to the newswire, “government and private experts” say the hurricanes could join the “infamous ranks” of Katrina, Sandy and Harvey – which are among the eight US storms to have ever caused damages of more than $50bn.

PAYOUTS: The US Small Business Administration has exhausted funds for its disaster loan program following increased demand from Hurricane Helene, Reuters warned. Officials said the program needs about $1.6bn amid heightened demand following Hurricane Helene, according to the Hill. The Financial Times estimated that Milton alone will lead to about $36bn of insurance payouts for the private sector.

Around the world

  • DIRTY ENERGY: Burning household rubbish to make electricity is now the “dirtiest way the UK generates power”, BBC News reported.
  • COP BID: Australia has launched a bid to host the COP31 climate summit in 2026 in Adelaide, according to the Guardian.
  • FINANCE FAIL: The EU unveiled its negotiating stance for the COP29 climate talks next month, but did not address how it will boost funding for developing countries, according to Bloomberg.
  • CURBING COAL: The US Supreme Court allowed the Environmental Protection Agency to move ahead with its plans to limit carbon emissions by power plants, despite a pending challenge from 27 mainly-Republican states, the New York Times reported.
  • WARNING MESSAGE: Activist group Friends of the Earth warned the UK government to drop its support for a Mozambique gas project “embroiled in allegations of abduction, murder and rape”, said Politico.
  • WIND POWER: A Chinese company developed the world’s “most powerful” floating offshore wind turbine with a capacity of 20 megawatts, state news agency Xinhua said.

60%

Global increase in forest fire carbon emissions over 2001-23, according to a new paper in Science.


Latest climate research

  • Recent floods that killed at least 244 people in Nepal were driven by rainfall made “about 10% more intense” by human-caused climate change, according to a rapid attribution study.
  • Drought and aridity are already having a “significant impact” on internal migration – especially in arid and “hyper-arid” regions of southern Europe, South Asia, Africa and the Middle East and South America – new research found.
  • Many people in the US are experiencing “psychological distress” from climate change, but those who do are more involved in collective climate action, a new study said.

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

Solar generation is set to quadruple by 2030, sending coal power tumbling

Electricity generation from solar is set to quadruple by 2030, sending coal power tumbling and becoming the world’s largest source of electricity by 2033, according to Carbon Brief analysis of the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook. The report finds that global CO2 emissions are set to peak “imminently”, as the “age of electricity” sends fossil fuels into decline. See Carbon Brief’s in-depth coverage of the report.

Spotlight

Is global warming ‘accelerating’?

A recent “surge” in global warming is not statistically “detectable”, according to a study published this week. But does this mean it is not happening? Carbon Brief speaks to the lead author of the study and explores the debate on a warming acceleration.

Global temperatures are soaring. Last year was the hottest year on record, with global surface temperatures reaching 1.34-1.54C above pre-industrial levels. But 2024 is already setting blistering new records and is expected to knock 2023 off the top spot.

Against this backdrop of ever-worsening heat, a new study in Communications Earth and Environment used statistical methods to see whether an acceleration in global warming could be formally detected.

The authors find a “changepoint” in the rate of warming around the year 1970, but find no “statistically detectable” acceleration since then.

Dr Claudie Beaulieu is the paper’s lead author and an associate professor in the Ocean Sciences Department at UC Santa Cruz. She told Carbon Brief: “If an acceleration in global warming is occurring, the size of that acceleration is either too small or too recent to robustly detect it in globally-averaged surface temperature records.”

However, some scientists questioned the methods used in the study. Prof Richard Allan, a professor of climate science at the University of Reading, said the surface warming data used in this study is “influenced by natural variation”. He argued that “when all lines of evidence are scrutinised” – such as satellite data and ocean measurements – “it is apparent that climate change is accelerating rather than continuing steadily”.

Carbon Brief’s climate science contributor, Dr Zeke Hausfather, published a factcheck earlier this year on the acceleration in global warming. Assessing observations and climate model output, he concluded that “that there is increasing evidence of an acceleration in the rate of warming over the past 15 years”.

Beaulieu told Carbon Brief that present-day discussion about an acceleration in warming is similar to the debate over a warming “hiatus” about a decade ago. She continued:

“Back then, also using statistical methods, we showed that a ‘hiatus’ in warming was not detectable. With hindsight of more years of observations it is now obvious warming had just continued leading to the record heat of 2023. We need to keep monitoring.”

Dr John Kennedy is the co-chair of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) expert team on climate monitoring and assessment and scientific coordinator for the annual WMO State of the Global Climate reports.

He warned that this statistical method can mean waiting many years for warming – or a lack of warming – to be detectable. In a blog post earlier this year, Kennedy wrote:

“One thing that became clear during the ‘hiatus’ is that this kind of analysis is the kind of thing you do when you’re set (for whatever reason) on being the last person to know there is a hiatus.”

He added: “There are good physical reasons to expect an increase in the underlying warming.”

Beaulieu does not refute that warming might be accelerating. She said that “the point of the paper is that it will take additional years of observations to detect a sustained acceleration”.

Watch, read, listen

CLIMATE LINGO: Author and climate change activist Genevieve Guenther joined the Drilled podcast to discuss her new book, The Language of Climate Politics, which digs into rhetorical devices that she says are being used to slow or block climate action.

FAILING SINKS: “Is nature’s carbon sink failing?” asked a feature in the Guardian. The article warned that forest, plants and soil absorbed almost no carbon in 2023, and asked whether this “could rapidly accelerate global heating”.

FARM SUBMERGED: A short video by BBC News follows Nigerian farmers discussing the impacts of climate change on their livelihoods and highlights possible solutions.

Coming up

Pick of the jobs

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

The post DeBriefed 18 October 2024: IEA projects solar surge; US counts cost of hurricanes; Is global warming ‘accelerating’? appeared first on Carbon Brief.

DeBriefed 18 October 2024: IEA projects solar surge; US counts cost of hurricanes; Is global warming ‘accelerating’?

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Big fishing nations secure last-minute seat to write rules on deep sea conservation

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As a treaty to protect the High Seas entered into force this month with backing from more than 80 countries, major fishing nations China, Japan and Brazil secured a last-minute seat at the table to negotiate the procedural rules, funding and other key issues ahead of the treaty’s first COP.

The Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ) pact – known as the High Seas Treaty – was agreed in 2023. It is seen as key to achieving a global goal to protect at least 30% of the planet’s ecosystems by 2030, as it lays the legal foundation for creating international marine protected areas (MPAs) in the deep ocean. The high seas encompass two-thirds of the world’s ocean.

Last September, the treaty reached the key threshold of 60 national ratifications needed for it to enter into force – a number that has kept growing and currently stands at 83. In total, 145 countries have signed the pact, which indicates their intention to ratify it. The treaty formally took effect on January 17.

    “In a world of accelerating crises – climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution – the agreement fills a critical governance gap to secure a resilient and productive ocean for all,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement.

    Julio Cordano, Chile’s director of environment, climate change and oceans, said the treaty is “one of the most important victories of our time”. He added that the Nazca and Salas y Gómez ridge – off the coast of South America in the Pacific – could be one of the first intact biodiversity hotspots to gain protection.

    Scientists have warned the ocean is losing its capacity to act as a carbon sink, as emissions and global temperatures rise. Currently, the ocean traps around 90% of the excess planetary heat building up from global warming. Marine protected areas could become a tool to restore “blue carbon sinks”, by boosting carbon absorption in the seafloor and protecting carbon-trapping organisms such as microalgae.

    Last-minute ratifications

    Countries that have ratified the BBNJ will now be bound by some of its rules, including a key provision requiring countries to carry out environmental impact assessments (EIA) for activities that could have an impact on the deep ocean’s biodiversity, such as fisheries.

    Activities that affect the ocean floor, such as deep-sea mining, will still fall under the jurisdiction of the International Seabed Authority (ISA).

    Nations are still negotiating the rules of the BBNJ’s other provisions, including creating new MPAs and sharing genetic resources from biodiversity in the deep ocean. They will meet in one last negotiating session in late March, ahead of the treaty’s first COP (conference of the parties) set to take place in late 2026 or early 2027.

    China and Japan – which are major fishing nations that operate in deep waters – ratified the BBNJ in December 2025, just as the treaty was about to enter into force. Other top fishing nations on the high seas like South Korea and Spain had already ratified the BBNJ last year.

    Power play: Can a defensive Europe stick with decarbonisation in Davos?

    Tom Pickerell, ocean programme director at the World Resources Institute (WRI), said that while the last-minute ratifications from China, Japan and Brazil were not required for the treaty’s entry into force, they were about high-seas players ensuring they have a “seat at the table”.

    “As major fishing nations and geopolitical powers, these countries recognise that upcoming BBNJ COP negotiations will shape rules affecting critical commercial sectors – from shipping and fisheries to biotechnology – and influence how governments engage with the treaty going forward,” Pickerell told Climate Home News.

    Some major Western countries – including the US, Canada, Germany and the UK – have yet to ratify the treaty and unless they do, they will be left out of drafting its procedural rules. A group of 18 environmental groups urged the UK government to ratify it quickly, saying it would be a “failure of leadership” to miss the BBNJ’s first COP.

    Finalising the rules

    Countries will meet from March 23 to April 2 for the treaty’s last “preparatory commission” (PrepCom) session in New York, which is set to draft a proposal for the treaty’s procedural rules, among them on funding processes and where the secretariat will be hosted – with current offers coming from China in the city of Xiamen, Chile’s Valparaiso and Brussels in Belgium.

    Janine Felson, a diplomat from Belize and co-chair of the “PrepCom”, told journalists in an online briefing “we’re now at a critical stage” because, with the treaty having entered into force, the preparatory commission is “pretty much a definitive moment for the agreement”.

    Felson said countries will meet to “tidy up those rules that are necessary for the conference of the parties to convene” and for states to begin implementation. The first COP will adopt the rules of engagement.

    She noted there are “some contentious issues” on whether the BBNJ should follow the structure of other international treaties such as the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), as well as differing opinions on how prescriptive its procedures should be.

    “While there is this tension on how far can we be held to precedent, there is also recognition that this BBNJ agreement has quite a bit to contribute in enhancing global ocean governance,” she added.

    The post Big fishing nations secure last-minute seat to write rules on deep sea conservation appeared first on Climate Home News.

    Big fishing nations secure last-minute seat to write rules on deep sea conservation

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    Climate at Davos: Energy security in the geopolitical driving seat 

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    The annual World Economic Forum got underway on Tuesday in the Swiss ski resort of Davos, providing a snowy stage for government and business leaders to opine on international affairs. With attention focused on the latest crisis – a potential US-European trade war over Greenland – climate change has slid down the agenda.

    Despite this, a number of panels are addressing issues like electric vehicles, energy security and climate science. Keep up with top takeaways from those discussions and other climate news from Davos in our bulletin, which we’ll update throughout the day.

    From oil to electrons – energy security enters a new era

    Energy crises spurred by geopolitical tensions are nothing new – remember the 1970s oil shock spurred by the embargo Arab producers slapped on countries that had supported Israel during the Yom Kippur War, leading to rocketing inflation and huge economic pain.

    But, a Davos panel on energy security heard, the situation has since changed. Oil now accounts for less than 30% of the world’s energy supply, down from more than 50% in 1973. This shift, combined with a supply glut, means oil is taking more of a back seat, according to International Energy Agency boss Fatih Birol.

    Instead, in an “age of electricity” driven by transport and technology, energy diplomacy is more focused on key elements of that supply chain, in the form of critical minerals, natural gas and the security buffer renewables can provide. That requires new thinking, Birol added.

    “Energy and geopolitics were always interwoven but I have never ever seen that the energy security risks are so multiplied,” he said. “Energy security, in my view, should be elevated to the level of national security today.”

    In this context, he noted how many countries are now seeking to generate their own energy as far as possible, including from nuclear and renewables, and when doing energy deals, they are considering not only costs but also whether they can rely on partners in the long-term.

      In the case of Europe – which saw energy prices jump after sanctions on Russian gas imports in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine – energy security rooted in homegrown supply is a top priority, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in Davos on Tuesday.

      Outlining the bloc’s “affordable energy action plan” in a keynote speech at the World Economic Forum, she emphasised that Europe is “massively investing in our energy security and independence” with interconnectors and grids based on domestically produced sources of power.

      The EU, she said, is trying to promote nuclear and renewables as much as possible “to bring down prices and cut dependencies; to put an end to price volatility, manipulation and supply shocks,” calling for a faster transition to clean energy.

      “Because homegrown, reliable, resilient and cheaper energy will drive our economic growth and deliver for Europeans and secure our independence,” she added.

      Comment – Power play: Can a defensive Europe stick with decarbonisation in Davos?

      AES boss calls for “more technical talk” on supply chains

      Earlier, the energy security panel tackled the risks related to supply chains for clean energy and electrification, which are being partly fuelled by rising demand from data centres and electric vehicles.

      The minerals and metals that are required for batteries, cables and other components are largely under the control of China, which has invested massively in extracting and processing those materials both at home and overseas. Efforts to boost energy security by breaking dependence on China will continue shaping diplomacy now and in the future, the experts noted.

      Copper – a key raw material for the energy transition – is set for a 70% increase in demand over the next 25 years, said Mike Henry, CEO of mining giant BHP, with remaining deposits now harder to exploit. Prices are on an upward trend, and this offers opportunities for Latin America, a region rich in the metal, he added.

      At ‘Davos of mining’, Saudi Arabia shapes new narrative on minerals

      Andrés Gluski, CEO of AES – which describes itself as “the largest US-based global power company”, generating and selling all kinds of energy to companies – said there is a lack of discussion about supply chains compared with ideological positioning on energy sources.

      Instead he called for “more technical talk” about boosting battery storage to smooth out electricity supply and using existing infrastructure “smarter”. While new nuclear technologies such as small modular reactors are promising, it will be at least a decade before they can be deployed effectively, he noted.

      In the meantime, with electricity demand rising rapidly, the politicisation of the debate around renewables as an energy source “makes no sense whatsoever”, he added.

      The post Climate at Davos: Energy security in the geopolitical driving seat  appeared first on Climate Home News.

      Climate at Davos: Energy security in the geopolitical driving seat 

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      A Record Wildfire Season Inspires Wyoming to Prepare for an Increasingly Fiery Future

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      As the Cowboy State faces larger and costlier blazes, scientists warn that the flames could make many of its iconic landscapes unrecognizable within decades.

      In six generations, Jake Christian’s family had never seen a fire like the one that blazed toward his ranch near Buffalo, Wyoming, late in the summer of 2024. Its flames towered a dozen feet in the air, consuming grassland at a terrifying speed and jumping a four-lane highway on its race northward.

      A Record Wildfire Season Inspires Wyoming to Prepare for an Increasingly Fiery Future

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