Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Biden’s farewell
HEAVY-HEARTED HANDOVER: Outgoing US president Joe Biden used his final televised speech from the Oval Office to issue warnings about climate change and social media disinformation, BBC News reported. The Democrat pointed to “powerful forces” with “unchecked influence” set on “eliminat[ing]” the steps his government had taken to tackle climate change. This came after a separate valedictory address on Monday – covered by NPR – where Biden called on Donald Trump to carry forward his work on climate.
TRUMP LOOMS: Chris Wright – Trump’s pick to head the US Department of Energy – told senators at a confirmation hearing that he would support all forms of energy, including wind and solar power, and that he believed climate change was a “global challenge that we need to solve”, the New York Times reported. This came after the US Supreme Court said it would not hear an appeal from oil and gas companies trying to block climate lawsuits, according to the Associated Press.
Tragedy in Los Angeles
GRIM RECORDS: As the Los Angeles wildfires continue to burn, officials have confirmed that the death toll has risen to 25, the Los Angeles Times reported. Meanwhile, Al Jazeera noted that the Eaton fire is now the “most destructive and deadliest” wildfire in southern California’s history, while the Palisades fire is the “second most destructive”. Carbon Brief covered the causes, impacts and political and media response to the wildfires.
CLIMATE TO BLAME: A rapid attribution study found that climate change was responsible for around 25% of the “fuel” available for the fires, according to CNN. The research – carried out by scientists at the University of California, Los Angeles – said the fires have been “larger and burned hotter than they would have in a world without planet-warming fossil fuel pollution”.
MYTHS SPREAD: As the fires continued to burn, prominent right-wing figures spread “bigoted criticism” about the response to – and cause of – the fires, according to the Guardian, including narratives blaming the fire department’s diversity and inclusion initiatives. France 24 reported that California governor Gavin Newsom accused Elon Musk – leading shareholder of Twitter and Trump confidante – of spreading “lies”.
Around the world
- ZERO MOVEMENT: The Net Zero Asset Managers (NZAM) initiative suspended all activities after investment giant Blackrock withdrew from the voluntary group last week, reported the Times.
- GRID SPLURGE: Bloomberg reported that China State Grid – the nation’s “largest” power network operator – is gearing up to spend a record 650bn yuan ($89bn) this year, as it looks to “keep pace with surging renewable generation”.
- DRIED-UP RIVERS: The Guardian explained how a “historic” drought in Suriname’s interior has dried up rivers, triggered food and water shortages, and disrupted communities’ access to transport, health care and education.
- BP LAYOFFS: The fossil fuel giant BP announced plans to cut 4,700 jobs, or 5% of its workforce, in a bid to “save costs” and “revive” its share price, reported the Financial Times.
$250-$275 billion
The total estimated economic damage and loss of the Los Angeles wildfires, according to AccuWeather.
Latest climate research
- A study in Geophysical Research Letters found “profound changes” in the seasonal cycle of sea level on the US mid-Atlantic coast. The researchers said that maximum sea level in the area had risen by 82% from 1980-99 to 2000-20.
- Leaks from the Nord Stream gas pipeline in 2022 resulted in the largest amount of methane emitted from a short-term incident on record, according to a new study in Nature.
- A paper in Science Advances found that converting forests into cropland “may be an ineffective climate adaptation strategy for improving nutrition” in Nigeria.
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
The chart above illustrates the institutional affiliations of the authors of the top 25 most-shared climate papers of 2024, broken down by continent. It shows that 85% of authors of the most-mentioned climate papers of 2024 are affiliated with institutions from the global north, whereas only two authors are from Africa. The findings come from Carbon Brief’s full analysis of the 25 most featured climate-related papers of 2024, which was published this week.
Spotlight
‘Cli-fi’ comes of age
Carbon Brief reports on a new literary prize which aims to grow the climate fiction genre.
It is 2025. Wildfires have scorched southern California, while a right-wing US president has been elected on a ticket to axe “wasteful” government programmes.
This is not a summary of recent news headlines, but the setting of Octavia E Butler’s 1993 novel Parable of the Sower, seen by many as an early classic of the climate fiction – or “cli-fi” – genre.
Thirty years after Butler’s prescient tale was published, cli-fi is rising in prominence.
Cli-fi prize
This spring, the inaugural UK Climate Fiction Prize will announce its first winner, awarding £10,000 to a novel that engages with climate change.
Imran Khan, one of the founders of the prize, told Carbon Brief the aim of the prize was to expand a genre that had been growing in recent years. He said:
“We wanted to try to tilt the field in favour of more stories that centre the possibilities of what the future looks like if we start to take climate more seriously – both the good and the bad. We didn’t want it just to be climate dystopias. We wanted to be stories of hope, change and possibility as well.”
The nine books on the longlist make for an eclectic reading list, spanning genres, continents and different planets.
In the mix is the Booker Prize-winning Orbital by Samantha Harvey, a meditation on the beauty and fragility of Earth, told from the vantage point of astronauts circling it. It is facing off against And So I Roar by Abi Daré, which explores themes of climate justice through the eyes of a teenage girl from Nigeria, and The Mars House by Natasha Pulley, a sci-fi novel about the marriage of an Earth refugee and an anti-immigration Martian politician.
Abby Rabinowitz teaches a climate-fiction seminar to dozens of undergraduate engineering students each year at NYU Tandon School of Engineering. She told Carbon Brief that climate fiction had assumed a “more central role in a literary way” since 2018, albeit from a low baseline.
Rabinowitz said she launched the seminar in 2021 after observing that “very few people had dealt seriously with climate change and the climate crisis in fictions, both in literary works and on the screen”. She said:
“The Day After Tomorrow, which came out in 2004, remains the one climate disaster blockbuster that I’m aware of. That was 20 years ago.”
Parable of the Sower is on Rabinowitz’ syllabus, which she said covers “apocalyptic imaginings, speculative fiction storytelling and metaphorical and allegorical treatments of climate change” in books and film. Kim Stanley Robinson’s The Ministry of the Future, Stephen Markley’s The Deluge and Adam McKay’s film Don’t Look Up also feature.
‘Change the story’
There is some debate about whether climate stories inspire action. A 2018 study of US readers found the majority of cli-fi was prompting them to associate climate change with “intensely negative reactions”, which “could prove counterproductive to efforts at environmental engagement”.
However, the research suggests that non-dystopian climate stories with “positive frames” – at the time in shorter supply – might be able to motivate readers to act.
Climate fiction is important, according to Khan, because it can paint a more “vivid” picture of future warming than scientific data, plus “change the story of what is possible”.
Parable of the Sower – which depicts a climate-ravaged world, but also a protagonist with a vision for change – is a case in point, he said:
“It is one of the best examples of… what really good climate fiction can do. It inspires emotions of rage and anger, but also hope and care. Science alone hasn’t solved this issue – and it won’t solve this issue. We need people to care enough to do something.”
Watch, read, listen
COMBUSTIBLE AGE: The New Yorker placed the Los Angeles fires in the context of historic fires that ravaged US cities – and asked what is next in a climate-changed world.
RADIO DADAAB: A stateless journalist told the story of climate refugees in the world’s second-largest refugee camp via a short Environmental Justice Foundation documentary.
NUDGE UNIT: Neuroscientist, science communicator and UCL Climate Action Unit director Kris de Meyer spoke to Your Brain on Climate about how to tell “stories of action”.
Coming up
- 20 January: US presidential inauguration, Washington DC
- 20-24 January: World Economic Forum annual meeting, Davos, Switzerland
- 23 January: International Energy Agency (IEA) heat pumps workshop, online
Pick of the jobs
- Carbon Brief, data analyst | Salary: Unknown. Location: London or remote
- Climate Change Committee, media and communications senior manager | Salary: £59,782-£66,512. Location: London
- Nature Communications, associate or senior editor (ecology) | Salary: associate editor: $80,000, senior editor: $95,000. Location: New York, Jersey City, Philadelphia or London, hybrid
- WWF DRC, conservation manager | Salary: Unknown. Location: Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
- UK Labour Party, climate change, nature, energy and environmental policy assistant for Barry Gardiner MP | Salary: In line with IPSA pay scales. Location: London
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
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The post DeBriefed 17 January 2025: Trump looms; Fossil fuels made LA fires ‘burn hotter’; Has ‘cli-fi’ come of age? appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Climate Change
Why an Activist From Texas Crossed the World to Confront Asia’s Biggest Petrochemical Company
For the retired shrimper, the 8,000-mile trip to Formosa Plastics’ annual shareholder meeting in Taipei was part of a strategy of being relentless.
The Resistance, Part 2: Three Gulf Coast environmentalists confront Formosa Plastics Corp. at its shareholders meeting.
Why an Activist From Texas Crossed the World to Confront Asia’s Biggest Petrochemical Company
The U.S. government’s recent deployment of visa restrictions for international illegal fishing exposes a dichotomy between how it wields power at home versus away.
While the Trump administration systematically unravels marine protections at home, it appears to be enforcing far higher conservation standards abroad.
America Is Policing Foreign Waters, but Gutting Domestic Protections
Brazil is rushing to regulate its critical minerals industry and unlock its vast untapped reserves of rare earths, aiming to position itself as a strategic producer with Chinese and US companies competing for fresh supplies.
Despite opposition from some environmental and Indigenous rights groups, lawmakers in Brazil’s lower house of Congress passed the government’s critical minerals policy bill last month, and backers now hope to secure final Senate approval before October’s presidential election.
Already a major mining nation with large reserves of graphite and copper, Brazil has the world’s second-largest reserves of rare earth elements after China, with the difference that Brazilian reserves are largely untapped. This group of 17 minerals is used in permanent magnets for electric motors vital for clean technologies such as electric vehicles (EVs) and wind turbines.
As Chinese and US companies compete to secure supplies, Brazil hopes to serve them both.
“We don’t have any preferences. Whoever wishes to participate with us to help with the mining, processing, and production of the wealth that these rare earths can bring is welcome to invest in Brazil,” President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva told journalists after meeting President Donald Trump in Washington in May.
Value-added mining
The draft legislation, which is backed by industry groups, creates a $380-million Guarantee Fund for Mineral Activity meant to provide financial support for mining projects, grants priority status for permitting strategic mining projects, and requires companies to dedicate a share of their revenue for domestic research and development on mineral extraction and processing – part of the policy’s effort to maximise the benefits of mining.
To select strategic projects and support their environmental licensing, the bill envisions establishing a Committee for Strategic and Critical Minerals, which includes representatives from different government agencies, state and local governments, industry and civil society.
Mining Minister Alexandre Silveira said the government’s bill “aligns mineral exploration with national interests”, and he has pledged to work closely with the Senate to pass it in the coming months.
“Brazil … doesn’t intend to be a mere exporter of unprocessed raw materials, but to expand its industrial and technological capacity, too,” Silveira said last month.
The Brazilian government says the country presents an “unparalleled” opportunity for refining “green minerals”, given that around half of its electricity comes from hydropower.
At the other end of the supply chain, several Chinese companies have vast plans to assemble EVs in Brazil. EV manufacturing giant BYD opened a massive production facility in the state of Bahia last October – the company’s largest EV factory outside China. BYD’s top executive in Brazil told Reuters it is aiming to produce and source 50% of its vehicle components in the country by the end of the year. BYD’s subsidiaries in Brazil directly own mineral rights in the country’s “lithium valley”.
Brazil’s Congress defies Lula to push through “devastation bill” on COP30’s heels
Some pro-government lawmakers had proposed the creation of a state-owned agency that would hold a monopoly over mining projects, but that was eventually rejected after the federal government decided that no additional state intervention was needed in the sector.
Mônica Sodré, CEO of the Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI), said the country’s mining rules were created when minerals were mainly seen as “commodities for export”. Today, they are “central to economic security, industrial policy and geopolitics,” she said.
The proposed legislation, she added, is “an important first step, not a final solution” to position the country as a major mineral producer, and developing projects will require continued efforts through the newly-created committee.
Soft on safeguards?
But despite the government’s pledges to develop a critical minerals sector that benefits the national interest, some environmental groups have opposed the critical minerals policy bill, saying it does not create enough safeguards for the protection of affected communities.
Adriana Pinheiro, public policy advisor with Observatório do Clima, a network representing 130 environmental nonprofits, told Climate Home News that the bill “lacks explicit provisions on free, prior and informed consultation”.
-
In Brazil’s lithium belt, locals fear push to dismantle legal protections
As demand for transition minerals soars, pro-business lawmakers and environmental activists in COP30 host Brazil are in a tug of war over how to regulate the mining industry -
The scramble to stockpile critical minerals could drive up energy transition costs
Researchers warn that uncoordinated stockpiling could push up prices of minerals needed for clean energy technologies and delay their roll out -
Recycling could meet half of Europe’s critical mineral needs by 2050
A new report by an EU-funded research project says the bloc could harness its “urban mines” to reduce its dependence on China for energy transition minerals
The Articulation of Indigenous Peoples of Brazil (Apib) said in a note to Congress that the bill has the “potential to significantly impact indigenous territories without adequately incorporating mechanisms for protection and participation”.
Sodré said the concerns are valid, but that the draft bill is not the place to address them. Instead, she said, indigenous rights and participation should be considered on a project-by-project basis and that safeguards exist under Brazil’s “extensive” environmental permitting legislation.
“Precaution is essential in mining policy, but it should not lead to inaction. Blocking investments or delaying projects without clear evidence of unacceptable risks can result in significant social and economic costs,” she said.
Pinheiro, of the Observatório do Clima, added that while the bill encourages domestic processing of critical minerals, it does not create mandatory quotas. Countries such as Indonesia and Zimbabwe have banned raw exports, forcing investors to set up processing plants in the country.
“This regulation is only positive if it combines industrial strategy with strong safeguards,” Pinheiro said.
Geological advantage
China extracts about 70% of the world’s rare earths and controls around 90% of the processing – creating a potential chokepoint that has alarmed Western countries at a time of heightened geopolitical tension. The US and China have opted to stockpile key minerals in case trade restrictions are enacted against them.
Brazil, which has strong trade and diplomatic ties with both Beijing and Washington, views the intensifying competition for rare earth supplies as an opportunity for it to develop a new mining sector. Brazil’s National Mining Agency has reported about 2,700 rare earths projects under consideration, according to local news outlet Folha de Sao Paulo.
The country’s rare earths reserves also have a geological advantage, as they are predominantly contained in ionic clay rather than hard rock. These deposits contain sought-after “heavy rare earths” and require less processing to extract.
Backed by $2.7 billion in financial support from US government agencies, American mining firm USA Rare Earths acquired Brazil’s Serra Verde group, which owns the high-grade Pela Ema mine. The ionic clay mine is the only one outside Asia capable of supplying all the four major rare earths at scale, according to the company’s CEO Barbara Humpton.
Other major firms have followed, with Canada’s Aclara conducting studies in the $680-million Carina mine and Australian companies Meteoric and Viridis also seeking to develop ionic clay mines for European and American buyers.
Despite growing Western investments, China remains Brazil’s largest trade partner and the country’s imports from Brazil have already tripled between 2024 and 2025, according to data by the Brazil-China Business Council.
The draft bill does not guarantee that Brazil will be able to compete with Chinese rare earths on the international market, Sodré noted. A “more realistic benchmark” is how effectively the country can position itself as major supplier of critical minerals for the energy transition, she added.
Pinheiro said clearer regulation may help shape investments into the country, but foreign companies will not necessarily wait for Brazil’s critical minerals policy.
“The central question is whether Brazil will use this moment to build domestic value chains, ensure socio-environmental safeguards and protect affected communities,” she said.
The post Brazil jostles for rare earths share as US-China rivalry heats up appeared first on Climate Home News.
Brazil jostles for rare earths share as US-China rivalry heats up
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