The surplus of CORSIA-eligible carbon credits is projected to turn negative by 2030 unless new supplies become available, according to an analysis by Abatable.
Currently, the aviation sector contributes about 3% of global emissions. As a sector that’s difficult to decarbonize, it’s exploring direct low-carbon technological solutions like sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and electrification. However, these solutions face cost and technological hurdles and will take time to become widespread.
The Challenge of Decarbonizing Aviation
To mitigate emissions in the meantime, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) launched the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) in 2016. CORSIA aims to offset any growth in aviation emissions above 85% of 2019 levels.
CORSIA entered its first phase in January this year, after a pilot period from 2021 to 2023. Phase 1, which runs from 2024 to 2026, is voluntary for participating states, while Phase 2 will be mandatory starting in 2027.
- To comply, airlines can purchase SAF, enhance fleet efficiency, or buy CORSIA-eligible carbon credits.
However, the rollout has been challenging. In March, major carbon credit issuers Verra, Gold Standard, and Climate Action Reserve (CAR) were only conditionally approved by ICAO’s Technical Advisory Body. This status will be reconsidered in September following a resubmission process completed in April 2024.
Currently, CORSIA Phase 1 credits can only be acquired through the American Carbon Registry (ACR) and ART TREES standards. Additionally, CORSIA credits require Letters of Authorization from host countries, further limiting the supply.
As of now, the only recent issuance eligible for the scheme is 7.1 million Guyana ART credits. The ICAO Technical Advisory Body’s decision suggests that this limited supply situation may persist throughout 2024.
Demand to Outpace Supply by 2030
Abatable’s analysis indicates that, under current market conditions and without new supplies, demand for CORSIA credits will exceed supply by 2030. In Phase 2 of the scheme, demand is projected to outpace supply between 2029 and 2030.
In a conservative scenario, CORSIA demand does not exceed 100 million credits until after 2034. However, supply peaks in 2025 and can only meet demand until 2029. Without new projects, demand in Phase 2 could be 14x larger than supply.

In an optimistic scenario, aviation emissions return to 85% of 2019 levels this year, with CORSIA demand surpassing 100 million carbon credits in 2027. Supply, bolstered by projects likely to receive corresponding adjustments, meets demand until 2030. Without new projects, demand in Phase 2 could be 7x larger than supply.

Abatable’s projections include existing projects expected to meet the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market’s Core Carbon Principles and likely to receive corresponding adjustments. Supply from Verra, Gold Standard, and CAR is expected from 2025.
CORSIA’s design interfaces with the Paris Agreement’s Article 6, allowing countries to trade emissions reductions to meet Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Corresponding adjustments ensure accurate progress toward NDCs and prevent double counting. These adjustments are required for CORSIA credits, allowing them to be transferred internationally.
However, delays in implementing Article 6 mechanisms could affect CORSIA. While details are being developed, projects receiving Letters of Authorization can list on voluntary market registries as Article 6 compliant. Biennial UN reports will confirm national accounting and the application of corresponding adjustments.
A significant challenge is the liability for the revocation of authorized credits. ICAO’s Technical Advisory Body suggests that standards or project proponents should assume liability, while standards argue it should lie with the revoking country. COP29 decisions may influence this issue, potentially causing even more delays.
Market Response and Developments
The market is reacting to these developments. New commercial structures and carbon insurance products are under conception to mitigate risks and encourage trading activity. These products aim to provide confidence to market participants and enhance liquidity, especially given the current market uncertainties.
So, what’s next for this development in CORSIA carbon credits?
Verra, Gold Standard, and CAR have re-submitted their applications, and the Technical Advisory Board will reassess these in September 2024. If they fail, new supply sources will be delayed until 2025, extending beyond current projections.
To mitigate supply issues, standards should work toward approval while also building capacity to help countries develop market infrastructure and governance for authorizing credits with corresponding adjustments. Large CORSIA participants might invest in upstream projects, although this would require market understanding and time to generate a credit stream and gain necessary adjustments.
Airlines are not required to purchase credits until Phase 1 concludes in January 2028. However, some may buy and retire credits in advance, based on projected obligations from historical emissions data. Final emissions reports and audits will be completed in 2027, indicating that the total credits needed, leading to an increase in credit retirements.
The availability of credits post-2027 will depend on decisions by ICAO, Article 6 negotiators, and governments, as well as the emergence of new supply sources. The actions taken in the interim will be crucial for ensuring there are enough carbon credits to meet future demand.
The future of the CORSIA carbon credit market hinges on increasing the supply of eligible credits. Abatable’s analysis underscores the need for new projects and corresponding adjustments to meet the rising demand by 2030. While pursuing low-carbon technologies, the aviation sector must rely on carbon offsets in the interim.
The post CORSIA Carbon Credit Demand To Be 14x Larger Than Supply appeared first on Carbon Credits.
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How Climate Change Is Raising the Cost of Living
Americans are paying more for insurance, electricity, taxes, and home repairs every year. What many people may not realize is that climate change is already one of the drivers behind those rising costs.
For many households, climate change is no longer just an environmental issue. It is becoming a cost-of-living issue. While climate impacts like melting glaciers and shrinking polar ice can feel distant from everyday life, the financial effects are already showing up in monthly budgets across the country.
Today, a larger share of household income is consumed by fixed costs such as housing, insurance, utilities, and healthcare. (3) Climate change and climate inaction are adding pressure to many of those expenses through higher disaster recovery costs, rising energy demand, infrastructure repairs, and increased insurance risk.
The goal of this article is to help connect climate change to the everyday financial realities people already experience. Regardless of where someone stands on climate policy, it is important to recognize that climate change is already increasing costs for households, businesses, and taxpayers across the United States.
More conservative estimates indicate that the average household has experienced an increase of about $400 per year from observed climate change, while less conservative estimates suggest an increase of $900.(1) Those in more disaster-prone regions of the country face disproportionate costs, with some households experiencing climate-related costs averaging $1,300 per year.(1) Another study found that climate adaptation costs driven by climate change have already consumed over 3% of personal income in the U.S. since 2015.(9) By the end of the century, housing units could spend an additional $5,600 on adaptation costs.(1)
Whether we realize it or not, Americans are already paying for climate change through higher insurance premiums, energy costs, taxes, and infrastructure repairs. These growing expenses are often referred to as climate adaptation costs.
Without meaningful climate action, these costs are expected to continue rising. Choosing not to invest in climate action is also choosing to spend more on climate adaptation.
Here are a few ways climate change is already increasing the cost of living:
- Higher insurance costs from more frequent and severe storms
- Higher energy use during longer and hotter summers
- Higher electricity rates tied to storm recovery and grid upgrades
- Higher government spending and taxpayer-funded disaster recovery costs
The real debate is not whether climate change costs money. Americans are already paying for it. The question is where we want those costs to go. Should we invest more in climate action to help reduce future climate adaptation costs, or continue paying growing recovery and adaptation expenses in everyday life?
How Climate Change Is Increasing Insurance Costs
There is one industry that closely tracks the financial impact of natural disasters: insurance. Insurance companies are focused on assessing risk, estimating damages, and collecting enough revenue to cover losses and remain financially stable.
Comparing the 20-year periods 1980–1999 and 2000–2019, climate-related disasters increased 83% globally from 3,656 events to 6,681 events. The average time between billion-dollar disasters dropped from 82 days during the 1980s to 16 days during the last 10 years, and in 2025 the average time between disasters fell to just 10 days. (6)
According to the reinsurance firm Munich Re, total economic losses from natural disasters in 2024 exceeded $320 billion globally, nearly 40% higher than the decade-long annual average. Average annual inflation-adjusted costs more than quadrupled from $22.6 billion per year in the 1980s to $102 billion per year in the 2010s. Costs increased further to an average of $153.2 billion annually during 2020–2024, representing another 50% increase over the 2010s. (6)
In the United States, billion-dollar weather and climate disasters have also increased significantly. The average number of billion-dollar disasters per year has grown from roughly three annually during the 1980s to 19 annually over the last decade. In 2023 and 2024, the U.S. recorded 28 and 27 billion-dollar disasters respectively, both setting new records. (6)
The growing impact of climate change is one reason insurance costs continue to rise. “There are two things that drive insurance loss costs, which is the frequency of events and how much they cost,” said Robert Passmore, assistant vice president of personal lines at the Property Casualty Insurers Association of America. “So, as these events become more frequent, that’s definitely going to have an impact.” (8)
After adjusting for inflation, insurance costs have steadily increased over time. From 2000 to 2020, insurance costs consistently grew faster than the Consumer Price Index due to rising rebuilding costs and weather-related losses.(3) Between 2020 and 2023 alone, the average home insurance premium increased from $75 to $360 due to climate change impacts, with disaster-prone regions experiencing especially steep increases.(1) Since 2015, homeowners in some regions affected by more extreme weather have seen home insurance costs increased by nearly 57%.(1) Some insurers have also limited or stopped offering coverage in high-risk areas.(7)
For many families, rising insurance costs are no longer occasional financial burdens. They are becoming recurring monthly expenses tied directly to growing climate risk.
How Rising Temperatures Increase Household Energy Costs

The financial impacts of climate change extend beyond insurance. Rising temperatures are also changing how much energy Americans use and how utilities plan for future electricity demand.
Between 1950 and 2010, per capita electricity use increased 10-fold, though usage has flattened or slightly declined since 2012 due to more efficient appliances and LED lighting. (3) A significant share of increased energy demand comes from cooling needs associated with higher temperatures.
Over the last 20 years, the United States has experienced increasing Cooling Degree Days (CDD) and decreasing Heating Degree Days (HDD). Nearly all counties have become warmer over the past three decades, with some areas experiencing several hundred additional cooling degree days, equivalent to roughly one additional degree of warmth on most days. (1) This trend reflects a warming climate where air conditioning demand is increasing while heating demand generally declines. (4)
As temperatures continue rising, households are expected to spend more on cooling than they save on heating. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that by 2050, national Heating Degree Days will be 11% lower while Cooling Degree Days will be 28% higher than 2021 levels. Cooling demand is projected to rise 2.5 times faster than heating demand declines. (5)
These projections come from energy and infrastructure experts planning for future electricity demand and grid capacity needs. Utilities and grid operators are already preparing for higher peak summer electricity loads caused by rising temperatures. (5)
Longer and hotter summers also affect how homes and buildings are designed. Buildings constructed for past climate conditions may require upgrades such as larger air conditioning systems, stronger insulation, and improved ventilation to remain comfortable and energy efficient in the future. (10)
For many households, this means higher monthly utility bills and potentially higher long-term home improvement costs as temperatures continue to rise.
How Climate Change Affects Electricity Rates
On an inflation-adjusted basis, average U.S. residential electricity rates are slightly lower today than they were 50 years ago. (2) However, climate-related damage to utility infrastructure is creating new upward pressure on electricity costs.
Electric utilities rely heavily on above-ground poles, wires, transformers, and substations that can be damaged by hurricanes, storms, floods, and wildfires. Repairing and upgrading this infrastructure often requires substantial investment.
As a result, utilities are increasing electricity rates in response to wildfire and hurricane events to fund infrastructure repairs and future mitigation efforts. (1) The average cumulative increase in per-household electricity expenditures due to climate-related price changes is approximately $30. (1)
While this increase may appear modest today, utility costs are expected to rise further as climate-related infrastructure damage becomes more frequent and severe.
How Climate Disasters Increase Government Spending and Taxes
Extreme weather events also damage public infrastructure, including roads, schools, bridges, airports, water systems, and emergency services infrastructure. Recovery and rebuilding costs are often funded through taxpayer dollars at the federal, state, and local levels.
The average annual government cost tied to climate-related disaster recovery is estimated at nearly $142 per household. (1) States that frequently experience hurricanes, wildfires, tornadoes, or flooding can face even higher public recovery costs.
These expenses affect taxpayers whether they personally experience a disaster or not. Climate-related recovery spending can increase pressure on public budgets, emergency management systems, and infrastructure funding nationwide.
Reducing Climate Costs Through Climate Action
While this article focuses on the growing financial costs associated with climate change, the issue is not only about money for many people. It is also about recognizing our environmental impact and taking responsibility for reducing it in order to help preserve a healthy planet for future generations.
While individuals alone cannot solve climate change, collective action can help reduce future climate adaptation costs over time.
For those interested in taking action, there are three important steps:
- Estimate your carbon footprint to better understand the emissions connected to your lifestyle and activities.
- Create a plan to gradually reduce emissions through energy efficiency, cleaner technologies, and more sustainable choices.
- Address remaining emissions by supporting verified carbon reduction projects through carbon credits.
Carbon credits are one of the most cost-effective tools available for climate action because they help fund projects that generate verified emission reductions at scale. Supporting global emission reduction efforts can help reduce the long-term impacts and costs associated with climate change.
Visit Terrapass to learn more about carbon footprints, carbon credits, and climate action solutions.
The post How Climate Change Is Raising the Cost of Living appeared first on Terrapass.
Carbon Footprint
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