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Finance: Everything back on the table
Yesterday, developing countries told the co-chairs of the talks on a new climate finance goal to put all the options they wanted back into a nine-page text that had been slimmed down as a basis for negotiations. They went away last night and did so – and at 8.30 this morning they released a new text, which is 34 pages long.
Fernanda Carvalho, WWF’s climate and energy policy lead, described the ballooning length as “frustrating” because “after three years of preliminary talks, we had hoped to see a more streamlined text at this point”. She noted that the “swollen draft text puts everything back on the table – both good and bad options”.
The basic options on the structure of the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) remain the same in both texts. The first option is a goal for a certain dollar amount, consisting of finance provided by governments and private finance mobilised by their money.
The second is a provision and mobilisation goal, plus a wider investment goal that includes private and domestic finance. As this goal is “multi-layered”, it has been compared to an onion – and it’s what developed countries want.
There are several different proposals for the size of the government finance goal: $100bn+, $1tn+, $1.1tn, $1.3tn+ or $2tn. Developed countries want less and developing countries want more, with the G77 and China umbrella group jointly pushing for $1.3tn+.
On who pays, both texts include the same options – either just developed countries or various criteria to identify a larger set of contributors based on countries’ wealth and emissions. The African Group’s lead negotiator Ali Mohamed said today that attempts to widen the contributor base beyond developed countries were “why we had to reject the earlier draft”.
Newly arrived in the text are specific proposals for minimum amounts that should go to Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS). The latest text has options for $220bn for LDCs and $39bn for SIDS in grant-equivalent terms each year.
It also introduces options specifying that climate finance should transition away from fossil fuels or “emissions intensive investments”. That might seem obvious but it’s not, for example, to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank – which last year counted its investment in a gas-fired power plant in Bangladesh as climate finance.
Both the new and old texts have – outside brackets, suggesting it’s uncontroversial – commitments to phasing out “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or just transitions”. But the new text adds a target date of 2025 alongside the previous text’s options of 2035 and “as soon as possible”.
MDBs’ big climate-cash goal
Multilateral development banks (MDBs) say they are “walking the talk” on climate finance as pressure piles on them to channel more of their cash into developing countries’ efforts to shift to clean energy and adapt to climate change.
Their overall climate finance provision is estimated to reach $170 billion a year by 2030 – up 30% from a “record high” of $125 billion in 2023, the group of ten MDBs, including the World Bank, said in a joint statement on Tuesday.
Drilling down into the numbers, over 70% of the money ($120 billion) is expected to go to low and middle-income countries, with more than a third of that earmarked for adaptation.
Rob Moore, associate director for public banks and development at think-tank E3G, told journalists on Wednesday that this number is “significant” as it “provides a basis” for the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) to go significantly beyond the existing figure of $100 billion a year.
MDBs have been under the spotlight over the last few years as several country leaders and campaigners have called for wide-ranging reforms that would enable the financial institutions to pour more money into climate action. The World Bank – the largest among them – updated its mission to focus more on climate and made a series of technical tweaks to free up more capital for projects across the world.
Nadia Calviño, president of the European Investment Bank, said in a statement on Tuesday that “the family of multilateral development banks is walking the talk” with its new climate finance commitment. But experts think MDBs could and should go further.
Economists Vera Songwe and Nicholas Stern wrote in an influential report last year that development banks need to triple their lending to $390 billion by 2030 with a substantial chunk of the extra dollars funding climate projects.
In their statement on Tuesday, MDBs warned that their ability to do more largely depends on the commitment of their shareholders from both developed and developing countries. The group of banks urged them to show “greater ambition”, adding that “additional capital” could “unlock more MDB financing”.
Campaigners have also raised concerns over where the MDB’s climate cash actually ends up and on what terms it is provided.
In a report published this week, NGO Recourse said that the lenders’ definition of climate finance is “far from as extensive and stringent as required”, allowing for “troubling and high emitting projects”, like fossil gas, waste-to-energy incineration and airport expansion projects, to count as climate finance. It also highlighted that the majority of funding comes as loans, which contributes to “worsening the debt crisis in many countries”, the NGO said.
The MDBs added on Tuesday that they aimed to mobilise an additional $130 billion a year from the private sector by 2030. The development lenders have repeatedly stressed their role as multipliers of climate finance, using relatively modest amounts of public money to unlock much higher private capital.
But a Climate Home investigation earlier this year found private-sector climate projects enabled with the World Bank’s backing included the renovation of luxury hotels in Senegal, while a vulnerable fishing community next door struggled against rising seas with almost no support.
Meanwhile, some leaders are continuing their search for “innovative” ways to fill up the climate coffers. Barbados’ Prime Minister Mia Mottley used her speech on Tuesday to point out that putting levies on shipping companies, airlines, and bonds and stocks, as well as taxing fossil fuel extraction, could raise hundreds of billions of dollars.
Fourteen countries – including France, Spain, Kenya, Senegal and Colombia – plus the European Commission and the African Union are trying to make those ideas more concrete through a “Coalition for Solidarity Levies”. It announced five new developing-country members in Baku on Tuesday and said it will target carbon-intensive industries.
In brief…
Fossil fuel emissions still rising: Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels worldwide are expected to grow 0.8% in 2024, belying predictions of a peak, according to the Global Carbon Project. That’s higher than the average growth rate of 0.6% per year over the past decade and follows a rise of 1.4% in 2023. Global fossil CO2 emissions are now 8% higher than in 2015, when the Paris Agreement was negotiated. Emissions from coal use are set to increase 0.2% in 2024, hitting another record high, due to growth in India and China.
Youth take on NDCs: Youth-led organisations are calling for a “Universal NDC Youth Clause” to be included in countries’ updated national climate plans, urging governments to involve young people more actively in climate strategies. The proposed clause has three pillars: recognising young people as essential drivers of climate action, collaborating with youth in developing the NDCs, and educating young people on the impacts of climate change. At the launch, the organisations noted that “several governments” are expected to announce commitments to the clause in the coming days.
The post COP29 Bulletin Day 3: New finance text and development banks’ 2030 offer appeared first on Climate Home News.
COP29 Bulletin Day 3: Finance text balloons and Brazil presents new NDC
Amira Odeh Quiñones is a hydrologist and Caribbean organiser for the 350.org climate campaign group
El Niño, likely to be one of the strongest in modern history, has arrived on Caribbean shores.
Drought is slowly creeping up on our islands. But unlike the fiery wildfires ravaging parts of Europe, there’s no smoke signalling the damage being done, no sirens to warn of the danger. Only announcements from public health officials to stay indoors and remain hydrated — as if outdoor workers and farming communities have the luxury to heed such advice.
During El Niño, strong atmospheric winds alter rain patterns and trap heat across the Caribbean. But while we have experienced El Niño many times before, it has become very visible in recent years how climate change is making this natural phenomenon worse.
Across the Greater Antilles, temperatures are soaring past 38°C (100°F), with real-feel indexes reaching a gruelling 43°C in parts of Puerto Rico where I live. Cuba has it worse. Widespread power outages mean that methods for cooling down are unavailable for most of the day, leaving millions of vulnerable people at risk of heat stroke when temperatures hit 38°C.
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During the last strong drought a decade ago, I had water only two days a week in my home. Today, there are many families whose taps are about to run completely dry. Water authorities have already begun strict rationing in some municipalities, with more on the list scheduled for rationing if conditions don’t change.
Water rationing is far more than an inconvenience; it is an immediate health risk. This means thousands of people need to constantly haul heavy buckets up flights of stairs just so they could bathe, cook, stay hydrated – the basics of survival.
Heat causes health problems
Puerto Rico is home to roughly 300,000 elderly residents. Many live alone, isolated and without support. They risk severe physical injury when carrying heavy water containers, and are wont to suffer from silent heat exhaustion in unventilated rooms.
Furthermore, when water shortages force residents to store water in open household containers, it inadvertently creates breeding grounds for Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Paired with scorching temperatures that tend to shorten the mosquito breeding cycle, the region is facing explosive outbreaks of dengue fever that endanger our most vulnerable: children and the elderly.
The economic fallout is equally devastating. Dry fields mean millions of dollars in lost crops, forcing small agricultural businesses to collapse, needing urgent government relief to survive. Extreme fuel shortages have already paralyzed Cuba’s agricultural sector, cutting food output by 60% – the El Niño dry spell threatens to decimate it.
At sea, warmer ocean waters fuel massive influxes of sargassum seaweed. Rotting sargassum chokes our beaches, destroying the local tourism industry that so many working families rely on. Tangled seaweed also damages nets and boat engines, slashing fish catches and driving up equipment costs for local fishers.
In the south of Puerto Rico, the coastal town of La Parguera is currently witnessing a historic amount of sargassum on its shores. This has halted most of the boating activity in the area, which is the seaside town’s main tourist draw and economic driver.
All over the Caribbean, from town halls to local group gatherings, the story I hear is always the same: constant headaches, lost work hours, failing health, and a sense that quality of life is silently being stolen. The compounding effects of heatwaves, drought, and marine destruction are exhausting our people, our islands.
Climate change to blame
Climate change makes each El Niño year hotter and more damaging. Higher baseline global temperatures increase the energy and moisture available for extreme weather. Latest projections show that El Niño may push the monthly global average temperature past 2°C of warming for the first time in early 2027. In the Caribbean islands, that will not just be breaking records – it’ll be breaking lives.
Recently, I had the opportunity to share a panel with climate scientists behind what is known as the field of “attribution science” – or the science that compares today’s climate conditions to what the Earth’s climate would be like without human activity, particularly burning fossil fuels. They’re unequivocal: it’s no longer a question of whether extreme weather is caused by climate change, it’s just a question of how much.
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Attribution science recently got a boost from the U.S.’ top scientific advisory body. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine recognized that researchers’ methods have advanced considerably in recent years, resulting in better assessments on how much extreme weather can be attributed to human-caused climate change. It noted that attribution findings could be relevant in some types of legal cases, including those seeking damages from oil companies for climate impacts.
This crisis, which is already taking a heavy toll on our communities’ survival, needs real, urgent, and structural action that goes beyond aid. With similar droughts now gripping parts of Asia and Africa, we’re falling into the familiar narrative of treating the looming humanitarian crisis as if no one was to blame, as if it is being caused solely by a natural phenomenon we can’t control.
It’s not. The world was already on fire before its regular visitor, El Niño, came. While we need humanitarian action, we need climate action too, in order to permanently put out the flames.
The post When taps run dry in the Caribbean, it’s not enough to blame El Niño appeared first on Climate Home News.
When taps run dry in the Caribbean, it’s not enough to blame El Niño
China has released a five-year plan dedicated to addressing climate change.
The 15th five-year plan for a national response to climate change is the latest in a series to outline in-depth climate and energy targets for the 2026-2030 period.
These include five-year plans for “building a Beautiful China”, developing a “new-type energy system” and developing renewable energy.
There are also separate “action plans” for the 2026-2030 period, such as for peaking carbon emissions.
China has pledged to peak its emissions before 2030 and reach carbon neutrality before 2060.
The new plan does not include any major new targets, instead consolidating and reaffirming existing policies.
Nevertheless, it includes significant signals on key policy areas, such as non-carbon dioxide (CO2) greenhouse gases, global climate governance and carbon markets.
Below, Carbon Brief examines some of the notable elements in the latest five-year plan and what it reveals about China’s policy direction through to 2030.
What does the climate plan cover?
The Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) released the plan in late July, in unison with 18 other government departments. These include the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s top economic planning agency, and the National Energy Administration.
The document covers a range of topics, including CO2 emissions, other greenhouse gases (non-CO2 GHGs), carbon markets, carbon footprints, climate adaptation and international cooperation on climate change.
For the first time at the five-year plan level, the plan creates a comprehensive target system covering all areas of climate policy, say officials in a MEE Q&A.
They describe it as “the main policy instrument” for advancing China’s climate action during 2026-2030.
China rarely issues high-level multi-year policies dedicated to “responding to climate change”. In 2014, the NDRC published a plan on the topic running through to 2020, but this was not linked to a five-year plan period.
Qin Yan, principal analyst at ClearBlue Markets, tells Carbon Brief that the plan shows that China’s climate governance has reached “an unprecedented strategic level”.
She adds that the plan creates an “all-encompassing target system” to support China’s Paris Agreement climate pledges for 2030 and 2035.
In its 2030 pledge, China aimed to peak emissions “before 2030” and reduce carbon intensity – its emissions per unit of GDP – by more than 65% from 2005 levels.
Last year, president Xi Jinping personally announced China’s 2035 pledge to cut China’s greenhouse gas emissions to 7-10% below peak levels by 2035, while “striving to do better”.
The five-year plan marks a new phase in China’s climate policy, according to researchers at CIB Research, an economic research body affiliated with the Industrial Bank, whose largest shareholder is the Fujian provincial government.
Their analysis adds that the plan represents a broad effort to strengthen China’s climate-governance system, implementation mechanisms and underlying capacity.
Nevertheless, several headline targets and policies in the document simply reiterate already established plans.
These include:
- Cutting carbon intensity by 17% across the five years
- Reducing carbon intensity per product in industries under China’s carbon market by 3%
- Substituting fossil fuels with renewables
- Strengthening climate adaptation
- Supporting the “free flow” of cleantech
What does the plan say about non-CO2 GHGs?
The plan also goes into detail on China’s approach to non-CO2 GHGs. This includes reaffirming a target of an emissions “reduction capacity” from these gases totalling 30m tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) by 2030, although the baseline is unclear.
The target previously appeared in the overarching five-year plan, as well as the plan for building a “Beautiful China”.
The goal refers to emissions reductions, which can be realised through implementing current non-CO2 emissions reduction policies and projects, says Chen Meian, programme director and senior analyst at the Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress (iGDP).
She adds that it is “relatively achievable”, with sources including increasing the number of coal-mine methane utilisation projects.
She points to an MEE explanatory note for a draft methodology under the China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) scheme, China’s voluntary carbon-credit market. Chen says the note suggests that projects using ventilation air methane and coal-mine methane with concentrations below 8% alone could deliver around 20MtCO2e of reduction by 2030.
The note states that, currently, such projects are estimated to be able to “generate annual emission reductions of approximately 4.5MtCO2e”.
In addition, Chen says, measures targeting industrial nitrous oxide (N2O) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) could help make up the remainder needed to meet the target.
According to iGDP analysis of biennial reports submitted by China to the UNFCCC, China emitted around 14,000MtCO2e of GHGs in 2021, excluding land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF).
Non-CO2 GHGs accounted for around 2,700MtCO2e, or 19%, of the total, the majority of which was methane, as shown in the figure below.
China’s plans to curb these super-pollutants in the five-year period include coal-mine methane utilisation projects, end-of-pipe destruction technologies for HFCs and guidance on the use of catalysts to reduce N2O emissions.
The plan also calls for the recovery and replacement of sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) in power equipment.
For Chen, the plan’s focus on SF6 control is particularly noteworthy. She says the gas is “finally receiving policy attention” and that proactive action is “timely and will help avoid future emissions growth” as China’s power system expands.
What does the plan say about global climate governance?
One of the plan’s clearest objectives for international cooperation is for China to play a more active role in global climate governance.
By 2030, it says China should markedly increase its “influence, guiding power, shaping power and moral appeal” in this area.
It says China’s climate action could also feed into the Global Governance Initiative, a policy initiative aimed at reforming the global governance system.
China will also aim to “build a new narrative on climate governance”, it adds.
Prof Thomas Hale, a professor in public policy at the University of Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government, writes on LinkedIn that the plan “marks a major rhetorical shift” towards China being increasingly willing to “lead and shape” global climate action.
Another clear focal point for international cooperation is in carbon markets.
The plan calls for China to expand the global influence of its carbon market, such as through international rule-setting, cooperation on standards and by hosting the China Carbon Market Conference.
Qin says China’s more active role in global carbon pricing is already evident in the launch of the open coalition on compliance carbon markets with the EU and Brazil. This coalition is expected to adopt a work plan at the China Carbon Market Conference in September.
Qin also notes that China “could become the world’s largest [carbon] offset buyer” as its energy transition progresses.
The country would, therefore, “benefit from helping shape global rules under the Article 6 framework [for carbon trading under the Paris Agreement]”, she adds.
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The post Q&A: What is in China’s new five-year plan for climate change? appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Q&A: What is in China’s new five-year plan for climate change?
About a quarter of the countries signed up to the Paris Agreement are still breaching its rules by failing to submit a new national climate plan, 18 months after the February 2025 deadline.
Forty-five nations had not submitted a plan known as a nationally determined contribution (NDC), according to the Paris Agreement Implementation and Compliance Committee’s (PAICC) newly-published report of its 7-10 July 2026 meeting. One, Oman, has published it since the meeting.
Twelve countries ignored the committee’s repeated attempts to find out why they had not yet produced a climate plan, the report said. They will be invited to the committee’s next meeting, from September 1-4, so it can identify the challenges and constraints they face.
Members of the committee are divided, as they were at their last meeting, on whether to name those countries publicly and will debate the question again in September.
The PAICC does not have any power to punish governments, as building these powers into the Paris Agreement was thought to be so controversial that it could have stopped some governments from joining, experts have previously told Climate Home News.
A key requirement of the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement is that governments publish a more ambitious NDC every five years, setting targets to reduce their planet-heating emissions and outlining their policies to adapt to climate change, in order to meet the accord’s goals on limiting global warming and protecting people from its effects.
The latest set – the third round of plans, with new targets for 2035 – was due in 2025.
Some medium-sized emitters
Countries without an updated NDC include Egypt, Vietnam, Argentina and the Phillippines, all of which rank among the world’s 40 largest greenhouse gas emitters. The rest of the countries are smaller, poorer nations, with many in Africa or the Caribbean.
Some nations have argued that they cannot put together an NDC – which requires a significant amount of work in tracking emissions and consulting on how to curb them across the economy – because of exceptional circumstances. For example, a letter from a Sudanese official to the PAICC committee, seen by Climate Home News, says that the country’s civil war has led to the suspension of its NDC preparation.
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The US and Iran are not signed up to the Paris Agreement, although the US submitted a 2035 NDC under the Biden administration before Donald Trump pulled the US out of the UN climate accords.
The committee also expressed concern that the UN’s NDC registry continued to label the climate plans of countries that are no longer party to the Paris Agreement as “active”, according to its report. The US submission has since been archived.
Since the last PAICC meeting in March, ten countries have published NDCs. The committee did not name them but they include India, Algeria, Cameroon and Guyana.
The post Quarter of countries still missing UN climate plans 18 months after deadline appeared first on Climate Home News.
Quarter of countries still missing UN climate plans 18 months after deadline
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