A new version of the centerpiece text being discussed at Cop28 – the global stocktake – dropped on Friday afternoon. And it’s grown by three pages.
Everything is still on the table.
On fossil fuels, there are four choices. All are anchored around a “phase out”, with reference, variously, to “the best available science”, 1.5C, the Paris Agreement, “unabated”, peak consumption, and net zero CO2 emissions.
None explicitly refers to justice, equity, or differentiated pathways for developed and developing countries, campaigners noted – which may be a sticking point for the latter group.
Like its previous iteration, every paragraph comes with a “no text” choice. It leaves the door open to binning the entire energy package, including the tripling of renewable energy capacity and doubling of efficiency by 2030. That’s a possibility a group of countries, including Saudi Arabia, China, India and Iraq, floated two days ago.
Countries’ positions are still far apart, it was clear in a plenary on Friday morning.
Samoa, on behalf of small island states, not only pushed for a phase out, but an end to new investment in fossil fuel infrastructure – a Cop first.
Bolivia, on behalf of “like-minded” developing countries, and Saudi Arabia, on behalf of the Arab Group, said any agreement should focus on limiting emissions and not their sources. In a fiery speech, the Bolivian negotiator said his group would not “compromise our right to development”.
The most practical way to build a bridge is with finance, observers told Climate Home. Developing countries want to know money will be available to support an ambitious outcome.
Ministers, assemble
As usual, the Cop presidency has tasked pairs of developed and developing country ministers to chat with their peers and resolve the thorniest issues.
After hurrying through a back door from the plenary yesterday afternoon, Sultan Al Jaber lined up in the unimaginatively named press conference room 1 with his chosen eight.
Despite rumours of changes to the line-up, they are the same eight who have been coordinating talks since September – much longer than they’re usually assigned for.
Leading on the global stocktake are South Africa’s Barbara Creecy and Denmark’s Dan Jorgensen. Egypt’s Yasmine Fouad and Canada’s Steven Guilbeault lead on means of implementation – money, to you and me.
Singapore’s Grace Fu and Norway’s Espen Barth Eide will lead on mitigation while Chile’s Maisa Rojas and Australia’s Jennifer McAllister lead on adaptation.
The group are mainly veterans, having taken similar roles at Cop26 and Cop27. It includes two IPCC authors (Fouad and Rojas), a former rabble-rousing campaigner (Guilbeault) who has been to every Cop and an accountant who flew high in the corporate world before going into politics (Fu).
On top of this, the presidency has asked a number of nations including Canada to help him gather ideas on the most high profile issue – fossil fuel phase-out.
Beside his fellow ministers at the press conference, Jorgensen offered some motivational words. “Words on a piece of paper will not in itself save the climate, he said, “but if we agree, if we decide, we can make these words carry weight, make them instigate real change, and make a real difference.”
Activists to call for Gaza ceasefire
In Gaza, the Israeli military has now killed 17,000 people, a more than tenfold retaliation for the 1,200 Hamas killed in its 7 October incursion.
Israeli officials estimate a third of the dead in Gaza were combatants, meaning the majority of victims were civilians by any count.
In Dubai, activists want an end to the violence. They accuse the UN climate body (UNFCCC) of repressing their gestures of solidarity, with keffiyehs confiscated and Palestinian flags banned.
The head of War on Want Asad Rehman told reporters on Friday campaigners will hold a banner saying “ceasefire now, end occupation” at a march at 3.30pm today.
“If we’re going to be prevented of course that will be a serious problem,” Climate Action Network head Tasneem Essop said, wearing a keffiyeh and one of the lanyards the Palestinian pavilion are giving out in their national colours.
Rehman and Essop claimed the UNFCCC banned the phrase “ceasefire now” in demonstrations at the venue. A UNFCCC spokesperson denied this.
Waving any flag is prohibited by order of the UN Office of Safety and Security in New York. It made that directive on 7 October, the day Hamas attacked Israel.
Essop said that protesters will use the symbol of the watermelon instead – a fruit of black, white, red and green which has long been a stand-in for the Palestinian flag.
In brief
Put a lid on it – The Canadian government has proposed a cap on emissions from the oil and gas sector, which accounted for 28% of national emissions in 2021. The draft regulation needs parliamentary approval. Campaigners celebrated the move, while calling for tighter targets.
Corporate watch – Less than 10% of corporate delegates at Cop28 represent companies with science-based emissions targets, according to Influence Map. Ikea, Iberdrola and Unilever are among the climate leaders, while Gazprom, Adnoc, ExxonMobil and Toyota are the most misaligned companies with a major presence.
Paris anniversary present? – The Cop28 presidency is keen to finish on 12 December: the scheduled end date and precisely eight years after the Paris Agreement was adopted. It started cleanly, with no agenda fight. Can it be the first to end punctually since Cops were in single digits?
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Cop28 bulletin: Text grows with everything still to play for
Claver Gatete is Executive Secretary of the UN Economic Commission for Africa. Jason Veysey is Energy Modeling Program Director and Senior Scientist at the Stockholm Environment Institute. Lisa Sachs is Director of the Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment at Columbia University.
The case for global energy transition has rarely been clearer. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year exposed the cost of unplanned, fossil-dependent systems, while the falling cost of renewables, the rising penetration of electric vehicles, and the growing value of demand flexibility have made the direction of travel obvious. The benefits of a clean, secure, integrated system are no longer in dispute. What remains unclear is how to build it.
Countries around the world have called for faster renewable energy deployment and alternative energy arrangements. A secure, affordable, resilient, decarbonised system requires specific investments in specific places in a specific sequence, optimised across sectors and borders. But very few governments have the analytical foundation to translate those imperatives into investment.
The two instruments that are supposed to determine investment priorities for decarbonisation – Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and country platforms – cannot answer the most basic question facing any country undertaking an energy transition: what should the energy system look like?
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To close this gap, every country needs a bankable, economy-wide optimisation model for its energy system. A model is not a plan, but it can help answer the critical question of what the future energy system should look like. It shows how optimal scenarios vary as assumptions and policies are adjusted, calculates investment requirements and sequencing, and quantifies how system costs are affected by assumptions, policies, and exogenous variables like trade policy and financing terms.
Tool for efficient investment
Optimisation is a simplified way of simulating an energy system, but it can be an extremely powerful tool for moving energy planning from reactive (how do we manage the disparate actions in the energy system?) to intentional (what energy system underpins our national objectives?). A model can show how optimal scenarios vary as assumptions and policies are adjusted, and how investment requirements are quantified and sequenced.
Optimisation models can treat the energy system and the sectors it serves as an integrated whole, optimising across sectors and projects in ways that can be mutually reinforcing. If considered independently, growth in industrial demand, transport electrification, and digital infrastructure can add stress to the energy system. But an optimised plan can arrange these and other changes in an efficient, synergistic way.
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New load can be added where low-cost power is available; industrial customers can ensure the viability of investments in energy supply; electric vehicle charging policy can smooth load curves and reduce costs for all consumers.
Additionally, optimisation modeling can also change the financeability of investments. Taken alone, each project faces uncertainty about the rest of the system, which raises the cost of capital and causes projects to stall or unwind after contracts are signed. A coherent, optimised plan makes visible the coordination that private capital would otherwise have to bet on: identified offtake, sequenced and committed transmission, contracted power supply, and so on.
What COP31 and COP32 should do
The upcoming COPs in Turkey and Ethiopia can shift the center of gravity of international climate cooperation from fragmented commitments to planning. Three moves are urgently needed.
First, optimised, economy-wide, long-term energy system planning must be the foundation on which any meaningful NDC, country platform, or finance commitment rests. NDCs are typically drafted by environment or single-line ministries, with limited cross-sectoral input from ministries of energy, finance, and planning. They contain targets, derived from sectoral strategies or national commitments, not from an analytically grounded picture of what the energy system should look like and what investments would make it work. Country platforms are generally a portfolio of investments assembled from existing project pipelines, rather than derived from a system-level analysis of what an optimised, decarbonised energy system would require.
Second, recognise regions as a key planning unit. Modern integrated energy systems are inherently regional. Renewable endowments are unevenly distributed; balancing variable supply across borders lowers aggregate cost, reduces redundant backup capacity, and unlocks economies of scale no individual nation can achieve. Many energy investments in Southeast Asia, East Africa, Southern Africa and Central Asia may only be financeable in a regional context. Assessing domestic infrastructure without regional optimisation perpetuates the perception that decarbonisation is more expensive than it is.
COP31 leaders unveil global targets, with spotlight on electrification
Third, finance the planning capacity. A coordinated commitment by multilateral development banks, bilateral donors, and philanthropic partners to help every region and its constituent countries develop and maintain their own modelling capability, with open-source tools and regional analytical hubs, would close the most consequential gap in the current architecture. The cost is small relative to current spending on country platforms, failed project preparation, and misallocated infrastructure investment.
This includes supporting regional institutions such as the ASEAN Centre for Energy, the African Energy Commission, regional power pools, and the Latin American and Caribbean Energy Organization to determine what optimised regional systems require. Country-by-country pledging, repeated at every COP, will not deliver what meaningfully integrated systems can.
The 2026 energy crisis made the cost of unplanned, fossil-dependent systems newly visible. That window of clarity will close. The international community should seize the moment to build the planning foundation that has been missing for thirty years, rather than commissioning another round of NDCs or pledges, striving for outcomes neither was designed to deliver.
The post Every country needs a model to help optimise its energy transition appeared first on Climate Home News.
Every country needs a model to help optimise its energy transition
The world is currently experiencing what is expected to become the strongest El Niño on record – dubbed a “super El Niño” by many.
El Niño is the warm phase of a recurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific that releases heat from the ocean into the atmosphere.
This temporarily raises global temperatures and reshapes rainfall and extreme weather around the world – impacting the lives of billions of people.
The current El Niño event began in June and is expected to last into 2027.
El Niño is part of a wider climate pattern called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
The ENSO cycle also has a cool phase, known as La Niña, as well as a “neutral” phase. El Niño and La Niña events typically last between nine and 12 months, but can go on longer.
Below, Carbon Brief explains how the ENSO cycle works, its impacts on extreme weather and global temperatures and why this El Niño event is projected to be the most intense since records began.
The post Explainer: How the ‘super El Niño’ will reshape the world’s weather appeared first on Carbon Brief.
https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/el-nino-explainer/index.html
The second-largest reservoir in the US reached a record-low water height on Saturday – just days after the country’s largest reservoir broke its own record.
Both Lake Mead and Lake Powell are located on the Colorado River.
They provide water for populations across seven US states in the south-western US, with around 40 million people getting some or all of their municipal water from the Colorado River.
The river also provides water for around 5.5m acres (22,258 square kilometres) of farmland across Colorado, Arizona, California and the other states in the river basin.
Experts tell Carbon Brief that climate change, population growth and over-consumption are all contributing to the current record-low levels of the reservoirs.
Record lows
At full capacity, Lakes Mead and Powell can hold a combined 68 cubic kilometres of water – enough to supply all household consumption in the contiguous US for nearly 1.5 years. However, the water level in both reservoirs has been declining for decades.
The chart below shows the water level of Lake Mead, in metres above mean sea level. The reservoir, which began to fill in 1935 following the construction of the Hoover Dam, has a “full pool” maximum capacity of 347.60 metres. The water level in Lake Mead reached a record low of 317.11 metres on 7 August.
The following chart shows the water level of Lake Powell, in metres above mean sea level. Lake Powell’s full-pool level is 1,127.76 metres.
While the reservoir reached its maximum capacity several times in the 1980s, it has not done so since. On 15 August, the water level in Lake Powell was recorded at a new record-low of 1,072.87 metres.
Both reservoirs have continued to decline in the days since breaking their respective records. The downward trend will largely continue in both lakes until next spring, when the snowpack in the mountains of the Upper Colorado River Basin begins to melt, says Dr Jack Schmidt, a senior research scientist at Utah State University’s Center for Colorado River Studies. He tells Carbon Brief:
“The big dilemma of the moment is that we’re only in the middle of August, and we have no assurance of what the coming winter will be. The only thing we can be sure of is that we will be depleting overall total basin reservoir storage from now until, roughly, early April.”
Compounding factors
The record lows across the two reservoirs are the result of several compounding factors, experts tell Carbon Brief.
Since the turn of the 20th century, the amount of water flowing along the Upper Colorado River has declined by about 20%. Research suggests that half of this decline can be attributed to human-induced climate change.
Most of the river’s streamflow comes from the snowpack of the Upper Colorado River Basin, which stretches across five western US states but is primarily located in Colorado and Utah.
This region has been gripped by a historic “megadrought” for more than a quarter of a century. Nearly half of the megadrought’s intensity over 2000-18 is attributable to climate change, according to a 2020 study.
At the same time, the increasing population in the US south-west has put added pressure on the Colorado River’s water supply. The number of people obtaining some or all of their water from the Colorado system has grown by 15 million (around 60%) since 1992.
Schmidt tells Carbon Brief:
“There’s an ultimate cause of the present water crisis, and there’s a proximate cause. The ultimate cause is a warming climate, a warming planet and a pretty clear correlation between warming conditions and decreased runoff in the Colorado River Basin.
“The proximate cause is that in this messy democratic republic of ours, big policy decisions that match the variability of the climate occur painfully slowly – with intense political negotiations – and only incrementally.”
On 31 July, the US Bureau of Reclamation, which manages water resources in the western US, released an environmental impact statement on its proposed post-2026 strategy for managing Lakes Powell and Mead. The strategy itself has not been released yet.
Schmidt notes that the statement does appear to give the Bureau flexibility to “respond to crisis” by reducing the delivery of water to several states. However, he adds:
“They acknowledge it won’t work if we just stay critically dry, and of course every climate model for the 21st century, especially with a continually warming planet, says that that’s exactly what’s going to happen.”
The post Analysis: The two largest reservoirs in the US have hit record-low levels appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Analysis: The two largest reservoirs in the US have hit record-low levels
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