Extreme “wind droughts” that reduce power output from turbines for extended periods could become 15% longer by the end of the century across much of the northern hemisphere under a moderate warming scenario.
That is according to a new study in Nature Climate Change, which explores how climate change could impact the length and frequency of prolonged low-wind events around the world.
According to the study, “prominent” wind droughts have already been documented in Europe, the US, northeastern China, Japan and India.
As the planet warms, wind droughts will become longer in the northern hemisphere and mid-latitudes – especially across the US, northeastern China, Russia and much of Europe – the paper says.
The study – which focuses on onshore wind – warns that “prolonged” wind droughts could “threaten global wind power security”.
However, they add that research into the effects of climate change on wind supply can help “prepare for and mitigate the adverse impacts” of these prolonged low-wind events.
Combining wind power with other energy technologies – such as solar, hydro, nuclear power and energy storage – can help reduce the impact of wind droughts on global energy supply, the study says.
One expert not involved in the research tells Carbon Brief that the findings do not “spell doom for the wind industry”.
Instead, he says the study is a “navigation tool” which could help the energy industry to “counteract” future challenges.
Wind drought
Wind power is one of the fastest-growing sources of energy in the world and currently makes up around 8% of global electricity supply. It is also playing a crucial role in the decarbonisation of many countries’ energy systems.
Wind is the result of air moving from areas of high pressure to areas of low pressure. These differences in air pressure are often due to the Earth’s surface being heated unevenly.
Human-caused climate change is warming the planet’s atmosphere and oceans. However, different regions are heating at different rates, resulting in a shift in global wind patterns. The IPCC finds that global average wind speeds (excluding Australia) slowed down slightly over 1979-2018.
There have already been dozens of recorded instances of prolonged low-wind events, known as wind droughts, which can drive down power production from wind turbines.
Dr Iain Staffell is an associate professor at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London who was not involved in the study. He tells Carbon Brief that wind droughts often “push up power prices” as countries turn to more expensive alternative energy supplies, such as fossil fuels.
For example, Staffell tells Carbon Brief that, in the winter of 2024-25, Germany saw an “extended cold-calm spell which sent power prices to record highs”. (In German, this type of weather event is referred to as a “dunkelflaute”, often translated as “dark doldrums”.) He adds:
“It’s important to note that I’m not aware of anywhere in the world that has suffered a blackout because of a wind drought.”
Capacity factor
The productivity of wind power sites is often measured by their “capacity factor” – the amount of electricity that is actually generated over a period of time, relative to the maximum amount that could have been generated in theory.
A capacity factor of one indicates that wind turbines are generating the maximum possible amount of electricity, while zero indicates that they are not producing any power.
The authors define a wind drought as the 20th percentile in each grid cell – in other words, winds ranking in the slowest bottom fifth of winds typically recorded in the region.
They look at the frequency of prolonged wind droughts and how that might change as the world warms.
The map below shows regions’ average capacity factor at 100 metres above the ground level, derived from the ERA5 reanalysis data over 1980-2022, where darker shading indicates a higher capacity factor.
It also shows 19 wind droughts recorded since the year 2000 across Europe, the US, northeastern China, Japan and India. Wind droughts are indicated by yellow triangles for local events and hashed areas for larger-scale events.\
The map also shows that the darker shading for “abundant wind resources” is typically found in the mid-latitudes near “major storm tracks”, including the central US, northern Africa, northwestern Europe, northern Russia, northeastern China and Australia.
Modelling wind
To assess the severity of past and future wind droughts, the authors consider both the frequency and duration of these low-wind events.
To calculate wind drought duration, the authors use reanalysis data and models from the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) – the international modelling effort that feeds into the influential assessment reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The authors then look at how wind drought conditions may change in the future, by modelling wind speeds over 2015-2100 under a range of future warming scenarios.
They find that wind drought frequency and duration will both increase in the northern hemisphere and mid-latitudes by the end of the century. The authors identify “particularly notable increases” in wind drought frequency in the US, northeastern China, Russia and much of Europe.
In the northern mid-latitudes, there will be a one-to-two hour increase in average wind drought duration by the end of the century under the moderate SSP2-4.5 scenario, according to the study. This is a 5-15% increase compared to today’s levels.
The authors also assess “extreme long-duration events” by looking at the longest-lasting wind drought that could happen once every 25 years.
The study projects roughly a 10%, 15% and 20% “elongation” in these long-duration wind droughts across “much of the northern mid-latitude regions” under the low, moderate and very high warming scenarios, by the end of the century.
However, the authors find “strong asymmetric changes” in their results, projecting a decrease in wind drought frequency and intensity in the southern hemisphere.
The authors suggest that the increase in wind droughts in the northern hemisphere is partly because of Arctic amplification – the phenomenon whereby the Arctic warms more quickly than the rest of the planet.
Accelerated warming in the Arctic narrows the temperature gap between the north pole and the equator and alters atmosphere-ocean interactions, which reduces wind speeds in the northern hemisphere.
Conversely, the authors suggest that increasing wind speeds in the southern hemisphere are caused by the land warming faster than the ocean, resulting in a greater difference in temperature between the land and the sea.
Record-breaking wind droughts
Finally, the authors also investigate the risk of “record-breaking wind droughts” – extreme events that would only be expected once every 1,000 years under the current climate.
They use CMIP6 models, based on historical data over 1980-2014, to assess how long-lasting such an event would be in different regions of the world. These results are shown on the map below, where darker brown indicates longer-duration wind droughts.
These 1,000-year record-breaking wind droughts typically last for 150-350 hours (6-15 days), occasionally reaching up to 400 hours in regions such as India, East Russia, east Africa and east Brazil, the paper says.
The authors go on to assess the risk of record-breaking wind droughts for existing wind turbines under different warming scenarios.
The plot below shows the fraction of the CMIP6 models used in this study that project record-breaking wind droughts for onshore wind turbines.
Blue bars show the percentage of wind turbines that face a “weak” risk of exposure, meaning that fewer than 25% of models predict that the turbine will be exposed to record-breaking wind droughts by the year 2100. Green bars indicate a “moderate” risk of 25-50% and brown bars denote “severe” risk of greater than 50%.
Each panel shows a different region of the world, with results for low (left) moderate (middle) and very high (right) warming scenarios.
The study finds that, globally, around 15% of wind turbines will face “severe” risk from record-breaking wind droughts by the end of the century, regardless of the future warming scenario. However, different parts of the globe are expected to face different trends.
In North America, the percentage of turbines facing a “severe” risk from such extended wind droughts in the year 2100 rises from 14% in a low warming scenario to 39% in a very high warming scenario. Europe also faces a higher risk to its wind turbines under higher emissions scenarios.
However, the trends vary across the world. In south-east Asia, for example, the percentage of wind turbines at “severe” risk of the longest wind droughts drops from 18% under a low warming scenario to 11% under a very high warming scenario.
Energy security
The planet currently has 1,136GW of wind capacity. The authors say that, according to a report by the International Renewable Energy Agency, “wind power capacity is projected to grow substantially as the world pursues decarbonisation, aiming for 6,000GW by 2050”.
The paper sets out a number of ways that energy suppliers could reduce their exposure to record-breaking wind droughts.
The authors say that developers can avoid building new turbines in areas that are prone to frequent wind droughts. They add:
“Other effective mitigation measures include complementing wind power with other renewable energy sources, such as solar, hydro, nuclear power and energy storage.”
Staffell tells Carbon Brief the study provides helpful insights for how the world’s power supply could be made less vulnerable to prolonged low-wind events:
“I don’t see this study as spelling doom for the wind industry, instead it’s a navigation tool, telling us where to expect challenges in future so that we can counteract them.”
Staffell argues that there are “many solutions” for combatting wind droughts – including building the infrastructure to enable “more interconnection” between countries’ power grids.
For example, he says the UK could benefit from connecting its grid to Spain’s, noting that “wind droughts in the UK tend to coincide with [periods of] higher wind production in Spain”.
He adds:
“Increasing flexibility and diversity in power systems is a way to insure ourselves against extreme weather and cheaper than panic-buying gas whenever the wind drops.”
Similarly, Dr Enrico Antonini, a senior energy system modeller at Open Energy Transition, who was not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief that wind droughts “do not necessarily threaten the viability of wind power”. He continues:
“Areas more exposed to these events can enhance their resilience by diversifying energy sources, strengthening grid connections over large distances and investing in energy storage solutions.”
In a news and views piece about the new study, Dr Sue Ellen Haupt, director of the weather systems assessment programme at the University of Colorado, praises the “robust” analysis.
She says the work “would ideally be accomplished with higher-resolution simulations that better resolve terrain, land-water boundaries and smaller-scale processes”, but acknowledges that “such datasets are not yet available on the global scale”.
Meanwhile, Dr Frank Kaspar is the head of hydrometeorology at Germany’s national meteorological service. He tells Carbon Brief how additions to this study could further help energy system planning in Germany.
Kaspar tells Carbon Brief it would be helpful to know how climate change will affect seasonal trends in wind drought, noting that in Germany, wind power “dominat[es] in winter” while solar plays a larger role in the energy mix in summer. [The UK sees a similar pattern.]
He adds that the study does not address offshore wind – a component of Germany’s energy mix that is “important” for the country.
The post Climate change could make ‘droughts’ for wind power 15% longer, study says appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Climate change could make ‘droughts’ for wind power 15% longer, study says
Despite millions of dollars in grants and technical help for African businesses to power farming and other food production activities with renewable energy, most efforts remain stuck at the early stages because they struggle to find the investors, markets and expertise they need to grow.
This was the message from a coalition of global institutions working on energy, water and agriculture at this month’s Africa Food Systems Forum in Kigali, Rwanda.
“Energy, agriculture, water and nutrition actors rarely design solutions together,” the Agri-Energy Coalition said in a Call to Action on powering food systems with clean energy.
Using more renewables – especially solar power – to drive food systems would reduce food losses, ensure year-round availability and affordability of healthy foods, and improve productivity, income and resilience among farmers, food processors and other small enterprises, the coalition added.
In an interview with Climate Home News at the forum, Olamide Niyi-Afuye, CEO of the Africa Minigrid Developers Association (AMDA) – a body representing private-sector developers of small-scale, off-grid electricity systems across the continent – said its members are starting to recognise this interdependence and are increasingly considering businesses that combine energy with agricultural activities.
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This, Niyi-Afuye added, could lead to greater supply and use of clean power for key processes like irrigation, food processing and storage, creating new sources of revenue for both sectors.
CHN: Conversations at the Africa Food Systems Forum highlighted how organisations working in energy and agriculture often operate in silos. What has hampered their collaboration, and how has that affected Africa’s economic development?
A: Most mini-grid companies in Africa were primarily incentivised to achieve connections. If you look at some ongoing projects, you see a cost-per-connection model [of revenue]. When a subsidy is tied to achieving a connection, regardless of whether it is a productive connection, you might not notice the problem until five years down the line, when you realise the cash flows are not what you projected.
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So now we’re in a “come-to-Jesus moment” as an industry, where we’re righting the wrongs and adjusting our business models to make sure companies do not go bust and there is some level of sustainability over the long term.
The saying is not wrong that we’ve been working in our own silos because we’ve focused on the smaller things instead of the helicopter view. There needs to be cross-pollination [between the energy and agriculture sectors] because, if we are thinking about industrialisation, energy is a key driver of industrialisation. We will not achieve that if we’re not in the room and part of those conversations.
CHN: Productive use of energy is intended to ensure electricity access goes beyond lighting homes to improving livelihoods, creating jobs and powering equipment. But what happens when farmers cannot afford the equipment they need to do that? How can energy, agriculture and equipment players work together to make the transition more accessible?
A: That’s why we’re having conversations with companies set up to de-risk the agriculture sector. By leveraging that connection, we’re able to aggregate potential energy needs and develop instruments that make equipment more affordable through bulk procurement.
We can have arrangements that make it easier for farmers and food producers to lease equipment and eventually own it over a period. There’s no real pressure to recover the capital very quickly because you’re looking at scale.
There is a whole lot across the agricultural value chain that needs energy, from farming and harvesting to food processing and value-addition. We need to understand the energy needs across the value chain and bring our members in to provide solutions.
Developers do not necessarily need to provide every productive-use solution themselves. They can partner with equipment suppliers, financiers, agribusinesses and other service providers to enable customers to use electricity productively. The objective is simple: do not just electrify communities; enable economic activity that uses that electricity.
CHN: When Africa’s industrialisation is discussed, you hear things like renewables cannot provide enough baseload, while some food processors are sceptical about switching to renewable energy because of these concerns about reliability. What is your response?
A: It’s not a controversial statement to say that a typical baseload is usually from the grid, and it’s usually from multiple sources including renewable energy. For large-scale operations, we can look at blending multiple sources of energy. But how do we solve the problem of a mid-sized farmer? We can solve it with a mini-grid using renewable energy.
Comment: Every country needs a model to help optimise its energy transition
If you go to a small farmer in a rural area, they don’t care about what source of energy they’re getting. They just want something that can help them get from A to B. If you look at the direct energy needs of farmers and food processors, I’m sure 90 percent of their consumption can be solved by renewable energy. Let’s start with that problem first. Then, as they scale, they might need to ramp up, and we can start talking about a bigger baseload.
CHN: How much agricultural value is lost because farmers and food businesses lack reliable, affordable electricity?
A: If you look at, for example, the fact that we need to maybe plant tomatoes or strawberries in Jos before it gets to Lagos [Nigeria], which most likely is by road, I can assure you that a good chunk, if not stored properly, would be bad by then. So the fact that we do not have energy is in itself a lost opportunity to maximise the potential of the agriculture sector. So until we’ve solved the energy problem, we will not salvage waste – and for me that is a lost opportunity.
CHN: AGRA, an institution focused on scaling agricultural innovations to help smallholder farmers, estimates a massive shortfall between current investments in the continent’s food systems and what is actually needed to build a resilient, profitable agricultural economy – to the tune of $180 billion per year. Can integrating energy into food systems help bridge that gap?
A: Yes – if energy can help unlock the potential to earn more money, investors will follow the money. Investments go where there is certainty, and until there is certainty around cash flow and revenue, investment will be limited.
My vision is to see more Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) being signed between energy players and the agriculture sector. We can start by getting people into the room, understanding their pain points, crafting a framework and documentation that works for both parties, and then seeing deals happen.
This interview was shortened and edited for clarity.
The post How clean energy can boost business for Africa’s food producers appeared first on Climate Home News.
How clean energy can boost business for Africa’s food producers
Cristina Rumbaitis del Rio is a senior advisor on adaptation and resilience with the United Nations Foundation and Mattias Söderberg is global climate lead at Danish NGO DanChurchAid.
Recent extreme events – from wildfires and heatwaves in Europe to flash flooding following a glacier collapse in Nepal – have shocked and devastated communities, bringing years of warnings about such climate impacts to the doorstep of communities around the world.
One thing is certain: the new climate reality is here – and the adaptation strategies designed for yesterday’s world are no longer sufficient.
Attribution science has since shown that the hotter and more frequent heatwaves we’re experiencing around the world would have been virtually impossible without today’s high concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Climate shocks are now so severe that they reverberate through supply chains, food and water systems, financial markets and the movement of people.
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They must be a catalyst for a new way of thinking about adaptation and resilience, and how we finance solutions that work. A failure to invest in adaptation in one region can create costs far beyond it, which is why the concept of shared resilience is critical for leaders to grasp.
Investment not charity
At the UN General Assembly (UNGA 81) this month, leaders have an opportunity to translate today’s urgency into concrete commitments on adaptation and loss and damage finance ahead of COP31.
Those commitments are needed to underpin global stability, shared prosperity and human security. Governments should use this moment to show what a new response looks like: finance that reaches communities faster, supports locally grounded solutions, strengthens national systems, and helps countries prepare before the next shock arrives.
If we want sustained economic growth, food and water security, and resilient and prosperous societies across every region, adaptation must be at the heart of today’s development and security agenda. It cannot be just a future planning consideration or a narrow issue for climate ministries. Adaptation is now everyone’s business – and it must be financed fast and fair.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has repeatedly framed climate finance as an investment rather than charity, warning that “a world in climate chaos cannot be a world at peace” and describing human security as freedom from the chronic and sudden disruptions that climate change multiplies.
What’s more, adaptation delivers a real return-on-investment, with researchers estimating that every dollar invested produces $10 in benefits, saving lives, protecting livelihoods, and reducing the costs of future disasters.
Hitting adaptation limits
The urgency to scale adaptation systematically is growing. The newly released “Limiting Overshoot” report from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) confirms what scientists have long warned: exceeding global warming of 1.5C is now unavoidable under current policies. Yet, how high temperatures rise – and how long the world remains above the 1.5C threshold – will determine whether communities, economies and entire ecosystems can keep pace.
There are limits to adaptation. When we breach those limits, lives and livelihoods are lost, and people and ecosystems suffer greatly. We cannot simply build yesterday’s infrastructure a little stronger and assume it will be enough.
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We need to fundamentally change the systems that determine how societies anticipate, absorb and recover from both immediate and evolving non-linear climate shocks. This includes transforming physical systems, such as infrastructure, and the governance systems that affect where and how we live to how we maintain our health and wellbeing.
Finance today is nowhere near the scale of the challenge.
The UNEP “Adaptation Gap Report 2025” estimates the shortfall in adaptation finance in developing countries at $284 billion–$339 billion a year – roughly 12 to 14 times current international public flows of around $26 billion. That gap is a development, economic and human security problem, especially for the most vulnerable populations who have contributed the least to causing the climate crisis.
Building resilience into financial systems
There are already signs of what a more systemic adaptation response could look like. Communities around the world are delivering practical solutions at local level, even as adaptation finance remains notoriously, and appallingly, difficult to access. Cyclone-resistant homes, local forecasting capacities, drought-resistant crops, heat insurance for pregnant informal workers and mangrove restoration are rooted in local knowledge and lived experience, while delivering benefits far beyond the communities where they originate from.
But local innovation alone is not enough; the systems around it need to be resilient too.
Jamaica offers one example. The country has built a multi-layered disaster-risk financing framework, including a catastrophe bond and contingency funds, through sustained fiscal discipline and proactive investment. Its debt-to-GDP ratio fell from around 147% in 2012 to around 62% in 202-25. That groundwork matters when disaster strikes.
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Following Hurricane Melissa, Jamaica was able to secure billions of dollars in reconstruction financing from multilateral banks – finance that might otherwise have been much harder to access. The lesson is clear: resilience can be built into the financial architecture of a country before a crisis arrives. That is the shift we now need to make at scale.
The foundations already exist – in Kingston’s fiscal reforms, in early-warning systems from the Sahel to the Pacific, and in every community that adapted before disaster struck. What is still missing is the political will, and the finance, to take what works and put it to work everywhere, at the speed our world’s new climate reality demands.
To hear more on this issue from high-level officials and experts, sign up for this event during Climate Week NYC, at 8am EDT on September 24 (in person or online), moderated by Climate Home News Editor Megan Rowling: Adapting to the New Climate Reality: Why Accelerating Impacts Demand New Responses.
The post Human security relies on adapting to the world’s new climate reality appeared first on Climate Home News.
Human security relies on adapting to the world’s new climate reality
Climate Change
Framing the climate science debate as a binary battle isn’t just wrong – it’s dangerous
Lidy Nacpil is the coordinator of Asian Peoples’ Movement on Debt and Development (APMDD).
Recent reporting on international climate negotiations has highlighted a sharpening divide within civil society and multilateral diplomacy. A troubling, simplistic narrative has taken root: that the UN climate process is witnessing a binary struggle between defenders of science and those attacking it.
This framing is not only inaccurate; it is dangerous. Characterising a substantive methodological and political debate in these terms misdiagnoses the stakes and stirs conflict instead of clarity.
No one disputes that climate action must rest on science. Science tells us what has led us to the climate crisis – the accumulation of historical emissions – and how much carbon budget remains if we are to keep temperature rise below 1.5C. It tells us how much global emissions must drop, and how fast. Science is also essential in assessing each country’s historical contribution to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Responsibility, however, must also be based on capacity. For those who generated the largest share of historical emissions, that capacity includes the enormous wealth and economic power accumulated through the same fossil-fuel-intensive development that generated those emissions.
As science comes under attack at UN talks, climate movement splits over how to respond
While principles that should guide human action aren’t scientific questions – they are matters of values – applying them to real-world problems requires scientific grounding. Equity recognises the scientifically established reality of differentiated responsibilities among countries and within societies. Putting equity into practice demands scientific rigour.
Scrutiny of IPCC models
Today, critics are scrutinising the assumptions and frameworks behind the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), used to project future scenarios and map global mitigation pathways. These concerns centre squarely on equity and justice.
The economic, technological and policy assumptions used in IAM scenarios are normative choices rather than scientifically prescribed or neutral facts. These include choices about discount rates, economic growth, energy demand, technology costs, carbon prices, land availability and the regional location of mitigation. Many IAM scenarios reproduce existing global inequalities rather than transform them. Questions about transparency, representativeness and diversity in the scientific process are deeply urgent.
Most IAM scenarios are built primarily around global cost-effectiveness – directing emissions reductions to places where mitigation is modelled as cheapest rather than allocating effort according to historical responsibility, capacity and development needs.
The resulting pathways allow developed countries to retain disproportionately high levels of energy and fossil-fuel consumption while requiring developing countries to undertake substantial mitigation and carbon removal, including land-based measures that threaten food security and local development.
Northern models often assume uniform access to cheap financing. In reality, Global South economies face far higher capital costs, driving up the price tag of rapid infrastructure shifts.
Constraints on development space
Scenario constraints also limit the development space poorer nations need without guaranteeing adequate climate finance. When models treat profoundly unequal starting points as uniform baselines, policy pathways lock in global inequality under the banner of scientific objectivity.
Pointing out these structural flaws isn’t rejecting science. It is essential scientific scrutiny aimed at producing stronger, fairer, and more actionable results.
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The fight is not about whether we want to keep temperature rise below 1.5C, but about how we get there. A pathway can be technically compatible with 1.5C or 2C while still being deeply unequal in who gets to consume energy, who must reduce emissions, and whose development is constrained. Temperature compatibility alone does not make a pathway fair.
Critiquing IAM scenarios from an equity perspective is neither an attack on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) nor an attack on science. Rigorously examining IPCC reports – their substance, assumptions, and processes – is an acknowledgement of the IPCC’s importance and entirely consistent with scientific method.
Tensions over AR7 timing
There is a separate but related tension over the cycle and timeline of the IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report (AR7). Some governments and civil society voices advocate completing its Working Group reports in time to feed directly into the UN’s Second Global Stocktake in 2028.
The motivation makes sense: policymakers need timely science. But several developing-country negotiators and researchers have warned that meeting that deadline could severely disadvantage the Global South.
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Global North authors and institutions remain disproportionately represented in the research underlying IAM assessments. Developing-country researchers often work with fewer institutional resources, smaller research budgets, and less administrative support. Accelerated publishing and assessment schedules can further limit their ability to generate, submit, and peer-review research in time for inclusion.
The AR7 timeline concerns boil down to inclusivity, representation, and equity. Requiring the IPCC to meet tight political calendars without ensuring meaningful support and participation for developing-country researchers risks reproducing the very inequalities being challenged.
Cooperation requires equity
Political interests are indeed at work in UNFCCC negotiations and must be surfaced. Bad-faith actors seek to evade fossil-fuel phase-outs or shirk climate-finance obligations. Many developed country parties are guilty of both, including those who style themselves as “Friends of Science.”
We must not lump legitimate scientific critiques raised by several Global South researchers and many civil society organisations concerning representation, economic assumptions and fair-share accounting together with obstructionism. Doing so risks misrepresenting and delegitimising critical scientific work and Global South equity and justice perspectives.
The climate movement is strongest when it aligns rigorous science with global equity and justice. Achieving the Paris Agreement’s goals requires robust science that fully integrates the experiences, economic realities and academic contributions of the Global South. Effective climate action also requires international cooperation, and without equity, such cooperation cannot be sustained. We do not have to choose between science and equity. We need both.
The post Framing the climate science debate as a binary battle isn’t just wrong – it’s dangerous appeared first on Climate Home News.
Framing the climate science debate as a binary battle isn’t just wrong – it’s dangerous
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