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As it passes its midway point, 2025 is on track to be the second or third warmest year on record, Carbon Brief analysis shows.

However, it is very unlikely to beat 2024 as the hottest year.

This is not surprising, as 2024’s record temperatures were boosted by a strong El Niño event that has now faded.

The analysis also finds there is a less than 10% chance that average temperatures in 2025 will be more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

However, with long-term warming trending strongly upward and, potentially, accelerating, the world is expected to firmly pass the Paris Agreement 1.5C target – which refers to long-term warming, rather than annual temperatures – in the next five years.

In this latest state of the climate quarterly update, Carbon Brief finds:

  • So far, 2025 has seen record warm temperatures in January, the third warmest February and June and the second warmest monthly temperatures for March through May on record.
  • The world, as a whole, has warmed approximately 1.1C since 1970 – and around 1.4C since the mid-1800s.
  • Neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are expected to persist for the remainder of the year and into 2025.
  • Arctic sea ice extent hit record low levels for much of June and into early July – and remains well below the historical range (1979-2010).

Second-warmest first six months of the year

In this assessment, Carbon Brief analyses records from five different research groups that report global surface temperature records: NASA, NOAA, Met Office Hadley Centre/UEA, Berkeley Earth and Copernicus/ECMWF.

These records are combined into an aggregate that reflects a single best-estimate, following the approach used by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The first six months of 2025 have been very warm, each of them coming in the top-three warmest on record across all the different scientific groups that report on global surface temperatures. This is despite the presence of moderate La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific at the start of the year, which typically suppress global temperatures.

The table below shows the rank of each month in 2025 relative to all the months since the dataset began (1850 for NOAA, Hadley/UAE and Berkeley Earth, 1880 for NASA, and 1940 for Copernicus/ECMWF). Hadley/UAE has been unusually slow in reporting data in 2025 and currently only has global mean surface temperature value available up to February.

It demonstrates how January 2025 was the warmest January on record in the WMO aggregate, March, April and May the second warmest and February and June the third warmest.

Monthly rank NASA NOAA Hadley/UAE Berkeley Earth Copernicus / ECMWF WMO avg
Jan 1st 1st 1st 1st 1st 1st
Feb 3rd 3rd 3rd 3rd 3rd 3rd
Mar 2nd 1st 1st 2nd 2nd
Apr 2nd 2nd 2nd 2nd 2nd
May 2nd 2nd 2nd 2nd 2nd
Jun 3rd 3rd 3rd 3rd 3rd

When combined, the first six months of the year in 2025 were the second warmest first half of the year in the historical record. Temperatures averaged at just 0.08C below the record set in 2024 after the peak of a strong El Niño event, as shown in the figure below.

Line chart: 2025 saw the second hottest first half of the year on record
Global mean surface temperature anomalies for the first half of the year from 1850 through 2025 from the WMO aggregate of temperature records. Anomalies plotted with respect to a 1850-1900 baseline. Chart by Carbon Brief.

When combined, the first six months of the year in 2025 were the second warmest first half of the year in the historical record. Temperatures averaged at just 0.08C below the record set in 2024 after the peak of a strong El Niño event, as shown in the figure below.

Chart: Monthly global temperatures, which shows the top three hottest years on record are 2023, followed by 2024 and 2025.
Temperatures for each month from 1940 to 2025 from the WMO aggregate of temperature records. Anomalies plotted with respect to a 1850-1900 baseline. Chart by Carbon Brief.

Global surface temperature is currently around 1.4C above preindustrial levels – in-line with the best estimate of the human contribution to global warming. Most of this warming – around 1.1C – has happened just since 1970.

However, global surface temperatures have been declining in May, April and June from highs at the beginning of 2025. This is driven in part by continued cooling of sea surface temperatures after an El Niño-driven peak in early 2024, as well as a contribution from short-lived weak La Niña conditions at the start of the year.

The figure below shows a range of different forecast models for ENSO conditions for the rest of this year, produced by different scientific groups. The values shown are sea surface temperature variations in the tropical Pacific – known as the El Niño 3.4 region – for overlapping three-month periods.

Chart: Neutral El Niño conditions are expected until early 2026
ENSO forecast models for overlapping three-month periods in the Niño 3.4 region (April, May, June – AMJ – and so on) for the remainder of 2025. Credit: Image provided by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia Climate School.

Neutral ENSO conditions are expected to persist through the start of 2026 in most models, with a handful of models showing a return to weak La Niña conditions (defined as El Niño 3.4 region sea surface temperatures under-0.5C) in the autumn and winter months. No models expect the development of El Niño conditions in 2025 and early 2026.

On track to be the second or third warmest year

Carbon Brief has created a projection of what the final global average temperature for 2025 will likely be by looking at the relationship between January-June temperatures and the annual average for each year since 1970. The projection also takes into account ENSO conditions in the first six months of the year and their projected development.

The analysis includes the estimated uncertainty in 2025 outcomes, given that temperature averages from only the first quarter of the year are available so far.

The chart below shows the expected range of 2025 temperatures using the WMO aggregate – including a best-estimate (red) and year-to-date value (yellow). Temperatures are shown with respect to the pre-industrial baseline period (1850-1900).

Line chart: 2025 is on track to be second or third warmest year on record
Annual global average surface temperature anomalies from the WMO aggregate plotted with respect to a 1850-1900 baseline. To-date 2025 values include January-June. The estimated 2025 annual value is based on the relationship between the January-June temperatures, ENSO conditions, and annual temperatures between 1970 and 2024. Chart by Carbon Brief.

Carbon Brief’s projection suggests that 2025 is virtually certain to be one of the top-three warmest years on record, with a best-estimate suggesting that global average temperatures will be approximately equal to 2023.

Currently, there is a less than 1% chance of 2025 being the warmest year on record, a 51% chance of it being the second warmest and a 49% chance of it being the third warmest. There is a roughly 9% chance that 2025 annual temperatures will exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

(A single year exceeding 1.5C is not equivalent to a breach of the Paris Agreement goal to limit temperature increases to 1.5C, which has been widely interpreted to mean temperature averages over 20 years.)

The figure below shows Carbon Brief’s estimate of 2025 temperatures using the WMO aggregate, both at the beginning of the year and once each month’s data has come in. The estimate jumped notably after 2025 saw the warmest January on record, but has been relatively stable over the past six months.

Chart: Carbon Brief's global temperature projection for 2025 is narrowing
Carbon Brief’s projection of annual 2025 global temperatures based on the WMO aggregate at the start of the year and after earth month’s global surface temperature data became available. The dashed line shows the prior record set in 2024 at 1.55C. Chart by Carbon Brief.

Record or near-record warmth in many regions

While global average temperatures are an important indicator of changes to the broader climate system over time as a result of human activities, these impacts will differ as some regions experience more rapid warming or extreme heat events than is reflected in the global average.

The figure below shows the temperature anomalies for the first six months of the year relative to the 1951-1980 baseline period used by Berkeley Earth. Virtually the whole planet except a small area off the coast of Baja Mexico and in Antarctica saw temperatures warmer than that baseline, with much of Europe and Asia around 2C warmer than the 1951-1980 period.

Most of the planet saw above-average temperatures in the first half of 2025
Map of year-to-date (January-June) global surface temperature anomalies shown relative to the 1951-80 period following the convention used by Berkeley Earth. Credit: Berkeley Earth.

A number of areas saw record warm temperatures over January through to June in the Berkeley Earth dataset, compared to all prior years since the global temperature record began in 1850.

The figure below shows areas of record warm temperatures in dark red; there were no areas with record – or even top-five – cool temperatures. (For more, read Carbon Brief’s factcheck on how climate change is not making extreme cold more common).

Heat map of the world: The first six months of 2025 saw record warmth around the world
Map of year-to-date (January-June) regions that set new records (warmest through to fifth warmest). Note that no regions set cold records for the year-to-date in 2025. Credit: Berkeley Earth.

Notable areas of record warmth include much of China, south-west Australia and the Mediterranean region. Western Europe, in general, was quite warm, though most land areas did not see a new record set. Overall, approximately 7% of the surface saw record warming in the first six months of the year.

In June, the western Mediterranean saw particularly exceptional warmth, as shown in the figure below. This marine heatwave was driven by a combination of short-term natural variability on top of the long-term warming trend in the region.

The temperature increase in the western Mediterranean region in July – relative to the long-term warming trend – represents the largest short-term increase in temperatures for the region since June 2003, which was a precursor to a devastating heatwave that is believed to have killed 70,000 people.

Heat map of the Mediterranean sea: Recent warmth in the western Mediterranean
Map of June global surface temperature anomalies over the Mediterranean region, shown relative to the 1951-80 period following the convention used by Berkeley Earth. Credit: Berkeley Earth.

Record-low Arctic sea ice extent in June

Arctic sea ice extent saw record lows for much of June 2025 and early July, moving out of record territory in mid-July, but remaining far below the historical range (1979-2010).

Antarctic sea ice extent has been at the low end of the historical range for much of the year, but has not set new records aside from a brief period in late February and early March.

The figure below shows both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent in 2025 (solid red and blue lines), the historical range in the record between 1979 and 2010 (shaded areas) and the record lows (dotted black line).

Chart: Arctic and Antarctic sea ice in 2025
Arctic and Antarctic daily sea ice extent from the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The bold lines show daily 2025 values, the shaded area indicates the two standard deviation range in historical values between 1979 and 2010. The dotted black lines show the record lows for each pole. Chart by Carbon Brief.

Unlike global temperature records, which only report monthly averages, sea ice data is collected and updated on a daily basis, allowing sea ice extent to be viewed up to the present.

However, this dataset – which has been continuously measured by satellites and assembled by the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) since 1979 – may soon be less available.

The US Department of Defence is planning to cease provision of satellite sea ice extent data to the NSIDC at the end of July. While some other satellite instruments can be used to help fill in the gaps, the change will degrade the scientific ability to effectively track this key climate variable.

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How clean energy can boost business for Africa’s food producers

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Despite millions of dollars in grants and technical help for African businesses to power farming and other food production activities with renewable energy, most efforts remain stuck at the early stages because they struggle to find the investors, markets and expertise they need to grow.

This was the message from a coalition of global institutions working on energy, water and agriculture at this month’s Africa Food Systems Forum in Kigali, Rwanda.

“Energy, agriculture, water and nutrition actors rarely design solutions together,” the Agri-Energy Coalition said in a Call to Action on powering food systems with clean energy.

Using more renewables – especially solar power – to drive food systems would reduce food losses, ensure year-round availability and affordability of healthy foods, and improve productivity, income and resilience among farmers, food processors and other small enterprises, the coalition added.

In an interview with Climate Home News at the forum, Olamide Niyi-Afuye, CEO of the Africa Minigrid Developers Association (AMDA) – a body representing private-sector developers of small-scale, off-grid electricity systems across the continent – said its members are starting to recognise this interdependence and are increasingly considering businesses that combine energy with agricultural activities.

    This, Niyi-Afuye added, could lead to greater supply and use of clean power for key processes like irrigation, food processing and storage, creating new sources of revenue for both sectors.

    CHN: Conversations at the Africa Food Systems Forum highlighted how organisations working in energy and agriculture often operate in silos. What has hampered their collaboration, and how has that affected Africa’s economic development?

    A: Most mini-grid companies in Africa were primarily incentivised to achieve connections. If you look at some ongoing projects, you see a cost-per-connection model [of revenue]. When a subsidy is tied to achieving a connection, regardless of whether it is a productive connection, you might not notice the problem until five years down the line, when you realise the cash flows are not what you projected.

    Despite African walkout, fractious land COP ends without drought deal

    So now we’re in a “come-to-Jesus moment” as an industry, where we’re righting the wrongs and adjusting our business models to make sure companies do not go bust and there is some level of sustainability over the long term.

    The saying is not wrong that we’ve been working in our own silos because we’ve focused on the smaller things instead of the helicopter view. There needs to be cross-pollination [between the energy and agriculture sectors] because, if we are thinking about industrialisation, energy is a key driver of industrialisation. We will not achieve that if we’re not in the room and part of those conversations.

    CHN: Productive use of energy is intended to ensure electricity access goes beyond lighting homes to improving livelihoods, creating jobs and powering equipment. But what happens when farmers cannot afford the equipment they need to do that? How can energy, agriculture and equipment players work together to make the transition more accessible?

    A: That’s why we’re having conversations with companies set up to de-risk the agriculture sector. By leveraging that connection, we’re able to aggregate potential energy needs and develop instruments that make equipment more affordable through bulk procurement.

    We can have arrangements that make it easier for farmers and food producers to lease equipment and eventually own it over a period. There’s no real pressure to recover the capital very quickly because you’re looking at scale.

    Rice farmer Danjuma Okuwa adjusts his newly installed electric rice milling machine at his compound in Rukubi, Nasarawa, Nigeria, September 27, 2022. (Thomson Reuters Foundation/Afolabi Sotunde)

    Rice farmer Danjuma Okuwa adjusts his newly installed electric rice milling machine at his compound in Rukubi, Nasarawa, Nigeria, September 27, 2022. (Thomson Reuters Foundation/Afolabi Sotunde)

    There is a whole lot across the agricultural value chain that needs energy, from farming and harvesting to food processing and value-addition. We need to understand the energy needs across the value chain and bring our members in to provide solutions.

    Developers do not necessarily need to provide every productive-use solution themselves. They can partner with equipment suppliers, financiers, agribusinesses and other service providers to enable customers to use electricity productively. The objective is simple: do not just electrify communities; enable economic activity that uses that electricity.

    CHN: When Africa’s industrialisation is discussed, you hear things like renewables cannot provide enough baseload, while some food processors are sceptical about switching to renewable energy because of these concerns about reliability. What is your response?

    A: It’s not a controversial statement to say that a typical baseload is usually from the grid, and it’s usually from multiple sources including renewable energy. For large-scale operations, we can look at blending multiple sources of energy. But how do we solve the problem of a mid-sized farmer? We can solve it with a mini-grid using renewable energy.

    Comment: Every country needs a model to help optimise its energy transition

    If you go to a small farmer in a rural area, they don’t care about what source of energy they’re getting. They just want something that can help them get from A to B. If you look at the direct energy needs of farmers and food processors, I’m sure 90 percent of their consumption can be solved by renewable energy. Let’s start with that problem first. Then, as they scale, they might need to ramp up, and we can start talking about a bigger baseload.

    CHN: How much agricultural value is lost because farmers and food businesses lack reliable, affordable electricity?

    A: If you look at, for example, the fact that we need to maybe plant tomatoes or strawberries in Jos before it gets to Lagos [Nigeria], which most likely is by road, I can assure you that a good chunk, if not stored properly, would be bad by then. So the fact that we do not have energy is in itself a lost opportunity to maximise the potential of the agriculture sector. So until we’ve solved the energy problem, we will not salvage waste – and for me that is a lost opportunity.

    CHN: AGRA, an institution focused on scaling agricultural innovations to help smallholder farmers, estimates a massive shortfall between current investments in the continent’s food systems and what is actually needed to build a resilient, profitable agricultural economy – to the tune of $180 billion per year. Can integrating energy into food systems help bridge that gap?

    A: Yes – if energy can help unlock the potential to earn more money, investors will follow the money. Investments go where there is certainty, and until there is certainty around cash flow and revenue, investment will be limited.

    My vision is to see more Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) being signed between energy players and the agriculture sector. We can start by getting people into the room, understanding their pain points, crafting a framework and documentation that works for both parties, and then seeing deals happen.

    This interview was shortened and edited for clarity.

    The post How clean energy can boost business for Africa’s food producers appeared first on Climate Home News.

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    Climate Change

    Human security relies on adapting to the world’s new climate reality

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    Cristina Rumbaitis del Rio is a senior advisor on adaptation and resilience with the United Nations Foundation and Mattias Söderberg is global climate lead at Danish NGO DanChurchAid.

    Recent extreme events – from wildfires and heatwaves in Europe to flash flooding following a glacier collapse in Nepal – have shocked and devastated communities, bringing years of warnings about such climate impacts to the doorstep of communities around the world.

    One thing is certain: the new climate reality is here – and the adaptation strategies designed for yesterday’s world are no longer sufficient.

    Attribution science has since shown that the hotter and more frequent heatwaves we’re experiencing around the world would have been virtually impossible without today’s high concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Climate shocks are now so severe that they reverberate through supply chains, food and water systems, financial markets and the movement of people.

      They must be a catalyst for a new way of thinking about adaptation and resilience, and how we finance solutions that work. A failure to invest in adaptation in one region can create costs far beyond it, which is why the concept of shared resilience is critical for leaders to grasp.

      Investment not charity

      At the UN General Assembly (UNGA 81) this month, leaders have an opportunity to translate today’s urgency into concrete commitments on adaptation and loss and damage finance ahead of COP31.

      Those commitments are needed to underpin global stability, shared prosperity and human security. Governments should use this moment to show what a new response looks like: finance that reaches communities faster, supports locally grounded solutions, strengthens national systems, and helps countries prepare before the next shock arrives.

      If we want sustained economic growth, food and water security, and resilient and prosperous societies across every region, adaptation must be at the heart of today’s development and security agenda. It cannot be just a future planning consideration or a narrow issue for climate ministries. Adaptation is now everyone’s business – and it must be financed fast and fair.

      UN Secretary-General António Guterres has repeatedly framed climate finance as an investment rather than charity, warning that “a world in climate chaos cannot be a world at peace” and describing human security as freedom from the chronic and sudden disruptions that climate change multiplies.

      What’s more, adaptation delivers a real return-on-investment, with researchers estimating that every dollar invested produces $10 in benefits, saving lives, protecting livelihoods, and reducing the costs of future disasters.

      Hitting adaptation limits

      The urgency to scale adaptation systematically is growing. The newly released “Limiting Overshoot” report from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) confirms what scientists have long warned: exceeding global warming of 1.5C is now unavoidable under current policies. Yet, how high temperatures rise – and how long the world remains above the 1.5C threshold – will determine whether communities, economies and entire ecosystems can keep pace.

      There are limits to adaptation. When we breach those limits, lives and livelihoods are lost, and people and ecosystems suffer greatly. We cannot simply build yesterday’s infrastructure a little stronger and assume it will be enough.

      Nepal flood destruction shows “limits to adaptation”, scientists say

      We need to fundamentally change the systems that determine how societies anticipate, absorb and recover from both immediate and evolving non-linear climate shocks. This includes transforming physical systems, such as infrastructure, and the governance systems that affect where and how we live to how we maintain our health and wellbeing.

      Finance today is nowhere near the scale of the challenge.

      The UNEP “Adaptation Gap Report 2025” estimates the shortfall in adaptation finance in developing countries at $284 billion–$339 billion a year – roughly 12 to 14 times current international public flows of around $26 billion. That gap is a development, economic and human security problem, especially for the most vulnerable populations who have contributed the least to causing the climate crisis.

      Building resilience into financial systems

      There are already signs of what a more systemic adaptation response could look like. Communities around the world are delivering practical solutions at local level, even as adaptation finance remains notoriously, and appallingly, difficult to access. Cyclone-resistant homes, local forecasting capacities, drought-resistant crops, heat insurance for pregnant informal workers and mangrove restoration are rooted in local knowledge and lived experience, while delivering benefits far beyond the communities where they originate from.

      But local innovation alone is not enough; the systems around it need to be resilient too.

      Jamaica offers one example. The country has built a multi-layered disaster-risk financing framework, including a catastrophe bond and contingency funds, through sustained fiscal discipline and proactive investment. Its debt-to-GDP ratio fell from around 147% in 2012 to around 62% in 202-25. That groundwork matters when disaster strikes.

      Hurricane Melissa’s destruction shows need for climate resilience push

      Following Hurricane Melissa, Jamaica was able to secure billions of dollars in reconstruction financing from multilateral banks – finance that might otherwise have been much harder to access. The lesson is clear: resilience can be built into the financial architecture of a country before a crisis arrives. That is the shift we now need to make at scale.

      The foundations already exist – in Kingston’s fiscal reforms, in early-warning systems from the Sahel to the Pacific, and in every community that adapted before disaster struck. What is still missing is the political will, and the finance, to take what works and put it to work everywhere, at the speed our world’s new climate reality demands.

      To hear more on this issue from high-level officials and experts, sign up for this event during Climate Week NYC, at 8am EDT on September 24 (in person or online), moderated by Climate Home News Editor Megan Rowling: Adapting to the New Climate Reality: Why Accelerating Impacts Demand New Responses.

      The post Human security relies on adapting to the world’s new climate reality appeared first on Climate Home News.

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      Framing the climate science debate as a binary battle isn’t just wrong – it’s dangerous

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      Lidy Nacpil is the coordinator of Asian Peoples’ Movement on Debt and Development (APMDD).

      Recent reporting on international climate negotiations has highlighted a sharpening divide within civil society and multilateral diplomacy. A troubling, simplistic narrative has taken root: that the UN climate process is witnessing a binary struggle between defenders of science and those attacking it.

      This framing is not only inaccurate; it is dangerous. Characterising a substantive methodological and political debate in these terms misdiagnoses the stakes and stirs conflict instead of clarity.

      No one disputes that climate action must rest on science. Science tells us what has led us to the climate crisis – the accumulation of historical emissions – and how much carbon budget remains if we are to keep temperature rise below 1.5C. It tells us how much global emissions must drop, and how fast. Science is also essential in assessing each country’s historical contribution to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

      Responsibility, however, must also be based on capacity. For those who generated the largest share of historical emissions, that capacity includes the enormous wealth and economic power accumulated through the same fossil-fuel-intensive development that generated those emissions.

      As science comes under attack at UN talks, climate movement splits over how to respond

      While principles that should guide human action aren’t scientific questions – they are matters of values – applying them to real-world problems requires scientific grounding. Equity recognises the scientifically established reality of differentiated responsibilities among countries and within societies. Putting equity into practice demands scientific rigour.

      Scrutiny of IPCC models

      Today, critics are scrutinising the assumptions and frameworks behind the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), used to project future scenarios and map global mitigation pathways. These concerns centre squarely on equity and justice.

      The economic, technological and policy assumptions used in IAM scenarios are normative choices rather than scientifically prescribed or neutral facts. These include choices about discount rates, economic growth, energy demand, technology costs, carbon prices, land availability and the regional location of mitigation. Many IAM scenarios reproduce existing global inequalities rather than transform them. Questions about transparency, representativeness and diversity in the scientific process are deeply urgent.

      Most IAM scenarios are built primarily around global cost-effectiveness – directing emissions reductions to places where mitigation is modelled as cheapest rather than allocating effort according to historical responsibility, capacity and development needs.

      The resulting pathways allow developed countries to retain disproportionately high levels of energy and fossil-fuel consumption while requiring developing countries to undertake substantial mitigation and carbon removal, including land-based measures that threaten food security and local development.

      Northern models often assume uniform access to cheap financing. In reality, Global South economies face far higher capital costs, driving up the price tag of rapid infrastructure shifts.

      Constraints on development space

      Scenario constraints also limit the development space poorer nations need without guaranteeing adequate climate finance. When models treat profoundly unequal starting points as uniform baselines, policy pathways lock in global inequality under the banner of scientific objectivity.

      Pointing out these structural flaws isn’t rejecting science. It is essential scientific scrutiny aimed at producing stronger, fairer, and more actionable results.

      Science ‘under attack’ from fossil fuel interests at UN climate talks

      The fight is not about whether we want to keep temperature rise below 1.5C, but about how we get there. A pathway can be technically compatible with 1.5C or 2C while still being deeply unequal in who gets to consume energy, who must reduce emissions, and whose development is constrained. Temperature compatibility alone does not make a pathway fair.

      Critiquing IAM scenarios from an equity perspective is neither an attack on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) nor an attack on science. Rigorously examining IPCC reports – their substance, assumptions, and processes – is an acknowledgement of the IPCC’s importance and entirely consistent with scientific method.

      Tensions over AR7 timing

      There is a separate but related tension over the cycle and timeline of the IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report (AR7). Some governments and civil society voices advocate completing its Working Group reports in time to feed directly into the UN’s Second Global Stocktake in 2028.

      The motivation makes sense: policymakers need timely science. But several developing-country negotiators and researchers have warned that meeting that deadline could severely disadvantage the Global South.

      Funding gap threatens next round of IPCC climate science reports, chair warns

      Global North authors and institutions remain disproportionately represented in the research underlying IAM assessments. Developing-country researchers often work with fewer institutional resources, smaller research budgets, and less administrative support. Accelerated publishing and assessment schedules can further limit their ability to generate, submit, and peer-review research in time for inclusion.

      The AR7 timeline concerns boil down to inclusivity, representation, and equity. Requiring the IPCC to meet tight political calendars without ensuring meaningful support and participation for developing-country researchers risks reproducing the very inequalities being challenged.

      Cooperation requires equity

      Political interests are indeed at work in UNFCCC negotiations and must be surfaced. Bad-faith actors seek to evade fossil-fuel phase-outs or shirk climate-finance obligations. Many developed country parties are guilty of both, including those who style themselves as “Friends of Science.”

      We must not lump legitimate scientific critiques raised by several Global South researchers and many civil society organisations concerning representation, economic assumptions and fair-share accounting together with obstructionism. Doing so risks misrepresenting and delegitimising critical scientific work and Global South equity and justice perspectives.

      The climate movement is strongest when it aligns rigorous science with global equity and justice. Achieving the Paris Agreement’s goals requires robust science that fully integrates the experiences, economic realities and academic contributions of the Global South. Effective climate action also requires international cooperation, and without equity, such cooperation cannot be sustained. We do not have to choose between science and equity. We need both.

      The post Framing the climate science debate as a binary battle isn’t just wrong – it’s dangerous appeared first on Climate Home News.

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