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We handpick and explain the most important stories at the intersection of climate, land, food and nature over the past fortnight.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cropped email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

UN food insecurity report

HUNGER DECLINES: The prevalence of hunger dropped in most parts of the world in 2024, according to a new report covered by Carbon Brief – but rates are still rising in much of Africa and western Asia. The UN’s annual report on food security and nutrition found that around 673 million people experienced hunger in 2024. Other key findings were that the cost of a “healthy” diet increased in 2023 and 2024 and that food price inflation “significantly” outpaced general inflation over the past five years. The price inflation was mostly driven by global factors, but also by localised shocks such as “climate extremes” disrupting food production, the report said.

‘UNEVEN’ PROGRESS: Global progress on tackling hunger is “encouraging”, but “uneven”, the director-general of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, Dr Qu Dongyu, said in a statement. The new report found that the entire population in Gaza faced “high levels of acute food insecurity” in 2024, alongside more than half of people in Sudan, South Sudan, Yemen and Haiti. Elsewhere, the UN World Food Programme said that hunger levels in Gaza are “catastrophic”, while Reuters reported warnings from a global hunger monitor that a “worst-case scenario of famine is unfolding” there. UN chief António Guterres told the UN Food Systems Summit Stocktake this week in Ethiopia: “We must never accept hunger as a weapon of war.”

‘CLIMATEFLATION’: Elsewhere, a thinktank report said the UK faces “climateflation” impacts that could “drive up food prices by more than a third by 2050”, the Guardian said. The Autonomy Institute said that “increasing numbers of heatwaves and droughts would imperil staple crops, disrupt supply chains and intensify inflationary pressures”, the outlet added. UK food price inflation increased in July for the sixth consecutive month, partly driven by “rising meat and tea prices”, BBC News reported. Carbon Brief mapped out the findings of a new study showing links between extreme weather and food price spikes around the world.

Africa’s clean-cooking and nature goals

‘UNREACHABLE GOAL’: Sub-Saharan Africa will not reach the UN 2030 goal of providing clean cooking for all, according to a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). “Large gaps” in financing and infrastructure mean universal access by 2040 is “more realistic”, it continued. The number of Africans without access to clean cooking “has continued to grow” and is currently around 1 billion people, Climate Home News reported. The report stated that $37bn in investment is required to achieve universal access. In a statement, IEA’s executive director, Fatih Birol, said that lack of clean cooking “remains one of the great injustices in the world”.

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WILDLIFE BONDS: The Global Environment Facility (GEF) has planned a new wave of wildlife conservation bonds to provide up to $1.5bn to “help African countries” save endangered species and ecosystems, Reuters reported. The GEF’s head of programming told the newswire that the bonds, which provide low-cost funding in return for curbing poaching or other conservation measures, will be issued for every country in Africa. The bonds will help poorer countries receive funding without adding to government debt. While such bonds usually target “emblematic” species, the GEF hopes to use the bonds to cover entire ecosystems, such as wetlands, Reuters said.

CONGO’S BIOFUELS: Italian oil company Eni has closed one biofuels pilot project in the Republic of Congo, but two other such projects remain in an experimental phase, InfoNile reported. Eni previously signed a 50-year agreement with the Congolese government to develop the country’s agro-biofuel sector, with a plan to cover 150,000 hectares of agricultural land by 2030. However, local farmer Chris Nsimba told InfoNile that, although Eni has brought economic development to his district, the company has made “little contribution” to local food security.

‘DRAMATIC EXPANSION’: Tenders for oil development are now available across “more than half” of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a new report from Earth Insight and other groups found. The government recently launched a licensing round for 55 oil blocks, the report said – a “dramatic expansion” which poses “major threats” to forests and protected areas. The oil blocks overlap with 8.6m hectares of “key biodiversity areas” and 66.8m hectares of intact tropical forests. This decision highlights “stark contradictions between the DRC’s fossil-fuel agenda and its stated commitments to biodiversity protection, climate action and community rights”, the report said.

Spotlight

‘Unprecedented’ marine heatwaves gripped the globe in 2023

This week, Carbon Brief covers a new study, published in Science, which found that 96% of the global ocean experienced a marine heatwave during 2023.

More than 95% of the world’s expanse of oceans experienced a marine heatwave – a period of abnormal ocean warming lasting at least five days – in 2023, according to new research.

The study, published in Science, used an ocean model that incorporates satellite and observational data to identify marine heatwave events and investigate the drivers of the unusual ocean heating.

It found that 2023 was an “unprecedented” year for marine heatwaves in terms of duration, extent and intensity of the events.

Many of the events had “immediate ecological and societal consequences”, the authors wrote.

‘Comprehensive investigation’

In 2023, marine heatwaves bleached corals in the Florida Keys, boosted the prevalence of a giant-clam-killing parasite in the Mediterranean and even intensified heatwaves on land during Europe’s “hellish” summer that year.

Using satellite data and an ocean model that incorporates different streams of data, the team of researchers “conducted a comprehensive investigation” of the global ocean’s state in 2023, they wrote. Together, the authors wrote, that year’s marine heatwaves had the “longest durations, widest extents and highest intensities on record”.

They found that the average duration of marine heatwaves in 2023 was 120 days, compared to an average duration of just under 36 days between 1982-2022. Spatially, the 2023 heatwaves covered 96% of the global ocean, compared to a historical average extent of around 74%.

Prof Regina Rodrigues, a physical oceanographer at Brazil’s Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, told Carbon Brief that, while the science underlying the study is “sound”, the study itself “does not bring many new aspects”. Rodrigues, who was not involved in the new research, added:

“The results are not different from those of many previous studies, except for the analysis of these regions together and for the same year.”

Driving factors

The researchers identified four main “hotspots” of the ocean that had the highest marine heatwave “cumulative intensity”: the tropical eastern Pacific, the south-west Pacific, the north Pacific and the north Atlantic. (Cumulative intensity is a metric that accounts for both intensity and duration of a heatwave.)

The researchers then used the ocean model to investigate the underlying drivers of marine heatwaves in each hotspot.

For example, in the north Pacific, they found that a combination of low cloud cover – allowing more sunlight to reach and warm the ocean’s surface – and weak winds resulted in around 1C of average warming throughout the year. A lack of cloud cover also contributed significantly to the heatwaves in the north Atlantic and south-west Pacific, they wrote.

It is “no surprise at all” to find that marine heatwaves have increased in frequency, intensity, duration and extent, “given that the ocean absorbs 90% of the heat from manmade climate change”, Rodrigues told Carbon Brief.

She pointed to a Nature study published earlier this year that examined the global record sea-surface temperatures of 2023-24. That study concluded:

“Without a global warming trend, such an event would have been practically impossible.”

News and views

WETLANDS SUMMIT: More than 3,000 delegates met in Zimbabwe for the 15th conference of the Ramsar Convention (COP15) to discuss the future of the world’s wetlands. Opening the event, Zimbabwe’s president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, called for the implementation of “collaborative approaches” towards wetlands protection, Down To Earth reported. Several southern African countries officially launched the Southern Africa Ramsar Regional Initiative to promote wetland conservation and sustainable use across borders, EnviroNews Nigeria reported. Additionally, China Daily reported that nine more Chinese locations were awarded “wetland city accreditation” at the conference, which concludes this Thursday.

‘DEVASTATION BILL’: Politicians in Brazil approved a bill to ease environmental licensing, a move criticised as the country’s “most significant environmental setback in nearly 40 years”, Mongabay said. The so-called “devastation bill” includes rule changes which would allow projects to be approved “by simply filling out an online form”, the outlet reported. It would also create a “special environmental licence” for “strategic” projects, “such as oil exploration on the Amazon coast”. Mongabay noted that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva can block or enact the bill, but “congress would likely overturn a veto”. It added: ”The law is bound to be challenged in the Supreme Court.”

SEABED STRIFE: Members of the International Seabed Authority (ISA) condemned the move earlier this year by a deep-sea mining company to “bypass the authority’s protocols by applying for a permit to mine in international waters under US law”, Inside Climate News reported. Oceanographic said that the ISA has “launched an official investigation” into contracting companies “over action taken to circumvent” existing protocols. The outlet said the decision was a “critical step in protecting the deep sea”. However, delegates at the recently concluded ISA meeting once again “failed” to reach an agreement on whether or not to allow seabed mining to proceed in international waters, reported Common Dreams.

FARMER FUNDS: The EU’s new long-term budget proposal featured cuts to agricultural spending, but the European Commission “insists” farmers will not be impacted, Euronews reported. The proposal outlined plans to combine agricultural subsidies and regional development funds into one “mega-fund worth €865bn”, the outlet said. Politico reported that the proposed changes mean “biodiversity goals have no earmarked funding at all – and will have to compete with the EU’s other environmental aims, including climate change, water security, the circular economy and pollution”.

‘TOXIC’ ALGAE: A toxic algal bloom along South Australia’s coastline has shown “no sign of abating” four months in, after killing sharks, rays, fish, dolphins and seals, the Sydney Morning Herald reported. The algae grew and spread due to a marine heatwave in September 2024, which caused ocean temperatures to be 2.5C warmer than usual. Marine ecologist Dr Scott Bennet told CNN: “This is symptomatic of climate-driven impacts that we’re seeing across Australia due to climate change.” Meanwhile, Reuters reported on a “revolution” in farm management that has boosted Australia’s wheat production “despite hotter, drier conditions”.

Watch, read, listen

CLOUD COVER: The New York Times profiled the scientists attempting to save the Great Barrier Reef by increasing cloud cover to cool the Pacific Ocean.

SYCAMORE SENTENCE: In Bloomberg, Josie Glausiusz argued that prosecuting the men who felled the Sycamore Gap tree in northern England in 2023 “mean[s] little” without stronger action to protect the natural world.

DECLINING SUPPLY: The Guardian visualised how Donald Trump’s “assault” on immigrants in the US could affect the country’s food supplies.

AN ICONIC TREE: Mongabay explored whether the Joshua Tree – a yucca plant native to the south-western US – can survive in the face of increasing drought, fires and development.

New science

  • A Nature Communications study found that lands managed by Afro-descendant communities in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Suriname experience up to 55% less deforestation than lands managed by others. The study highlighted the adaptation of African knowledge, the authors said, calling for a greater inclusion of Afro-descendants in environmental decision-making.
  • Fewer than 10% of predicted “hotspots” of a type of fungi around the world are currently contained in protected areas, according to a Nature study. The findings can benefit conservation, monitoring and restoration of the “largely hidden component of Earth’s underground ecosystems”, the study authors wrote. 
  • New research, published in Science Advances, found that the prioritisation of creating “biodiversity-friendly landscapes” through conservation activities may actually accelerate biodiversity loss by improving conditions for invasive alien species. The authors called for a “shift” towards “landscape-wide strategies to stop the ongoing decline of farmland biodiversity”.

In the diary

Cropped is researched and written by Dr Giuliana Viglione, Aruna Chandrasekhar, Daisy Dunne, Orla Dwyer and Yanine Quiroz. Svetlana Onye also contributed to this issue. Please send tips and feedback to cropped@carbonbrief.org

The post Cropped 30 July 2025: ‘Unprecedented’ ocean heatwaves; ‘Uneven’ hunger progress; Brazil’s ‘devastation bill’ appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Cropped 30 July 2025: ‘Unprecedented’ ocean heatwaves; ‘Uneven’ hunger progress; Brazil’s ‘devastation bill’

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Climate Change

How clean energy can boost business for Africa’s food producers

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Despite millions of dollars in grants and technical help for African businesses to power farming and other food production activities with renewable energy, most efforts remain stuck at the early stages because they struggle to find the investors, markets and expertise they need to grow.

This was the message from a coalition of global institutions working on energy, water and agriculture at this month’s Africa Food Systems Forum in Kigali, Rwanda.

“Energy, agriculture, water and nutrition actors rarely design solutions together,” the Agri-Energy Coalition said in a Call to Action on powering food systems with clean energy.

Using more renewables – especially solar power – to drive food systems would reduce food losses, ensure year-round availability and affordability of healthy foods, and improve productivity, income and resilience among farmers, food processors and other small enterprises, the coalition added.

In an interview with Climate Home News at the forum, Olamide Niyi-Afuye, CEO of the Africa Minigrid Developers Association (AMDA) – a body representing private-sector developers of small-scale, off-grid electricity systems across the continent – said its members are starting to recognise this interdependence and are increasingly considering businesses that combine energy with agricultural activities.

    This, Niyi-Afuye added, could lead to greater supply and use of clean power for key processes like irrigation, food processing and storage, creating new sources of revenue for both sectors.

    CHN: Conversations at the Africa Food Systems Forum highlighted how organisations working in energy and agriculture often operate in silos. What has hampered their collaboration, and how has that affected Africa’s economic development?

    A: Most mini-grid companies in Africa were primarily incentivised to achieve connections. If you look at some ongoing projects, you see a cost-per-connection model [of revenue]. When a subsidy is tied to achieving a connection, regardless of whether it is a productive connection, you might not notice the problem until five years down the line, when you realise the cash flows are not what you projected.

    Despite African walkout, fractious land COP ends without drought deal

    So now we’re in a “come-to-Jesus moment” as an industry, where we’re righting the wrongs and adjusting our business models to make sure companies do not go bust and there is some level of sustainability over the long term.

    The saying is not wrong that we’ve been working in our own silos because we’ve focused on the smaller things instead of the helicopter view. There needs to be cross-pollination [between the energy and agriculture sectors] because, if we are thinking about industrialisation, energy is a key driver of industrialisation. We will not achieve that if we’re not in the room and part of those conversations.

    CHN: Productive use of energy is intended to ensure electricity access goes beyond lighting homes to improving livelihoods, creating jobs and powering equipment. But what happens when farmers cannot afford the equipment they need to do that? How can energy, agriculture and equipment players work together to make the transition more accessible?

    A: That’s why we’re having conversations with companies set up to de-risk the agriculture sector. By leveraging that connection, we’re able to aggregate potential energy needs and develop instruments that make equipment more affordable through bulk procurement.

    We can have arrangements that make it easier for farmers and food producers to lease equipment and eventually own it over a period. There’s no real pressure to recover the capital very quickly because you’re looking at scale.

    Rice farmer Danjuma Okuwa adjusts his newly installed electric rice milling machine at his compound in Rukubi, Nasarawa, Nigeria, September 27, 2022. (Thomson Reuters Foundation/Afolabi Sotunde)

    Rice farmer Danjuma Okuwa adjusts his newly installed electric rice milling machine at his compound in Rukubi, Nasarawa, Nigeria, September 27, 2022. (Thomson Reuters Foundation/Afolabi Sotunde)

    There is a whole lot across the agricultural value chain that needs energy, from farming and harvesting to food processing and value-addition. We need to understand the energy needs across the value chain and bring our members in to provide solutions.

    Developers do not necessarily need to provide every productive-use solution themselves. They can partner with equipment suppliers, financiers, agribusinesses and other service providers to enable customers to use electricity productively. The objective is simple: do not just electrify communities; enable economic activity that uses that electricity.

    CHN: When Africa’s industrialisation is discussed, you hear things like renewables cannot provide enough baseload, while some food processors are sceptical about switching to renewable energy because of these concerns about reliability. What is your response?

    A: It’s not a controversial statement to say that a typical baseload is usually from the grid, and it’s usually from multiple sources including renewable energy. For large-scale operations, we can look at blending multiple sources of energy. But how do we solve the problem of a mid-sized farmer? We can solve it with a mini-grid using renewable energy.

    Comment: Every country needs a model to help optimise its energy transition

    If you go to a small farmer in a rural area, they don’t care about what source of energy they’re getting. They just want something that can help them get from A to B. If you look at the direct energy needs of farmers and food processors, I’m sure 90 percent of their consumption can be solved by renewable energy. Let’s start with that problem first. Then, as they scale, they might need to ramp up, and we can start talking about a bigger baseload.

    CHN: How much agricultural value is lost because farmers and food businesses lack reliable, affordable electricity?

    A: If you look at, for example, the fact that we need to maybe plant tomatoes or strawberries in Jos before it gets to Lagos [Nigeria], which most likely is by road, I can assure you that a good chunk, if not stored properly, would be bad by then. So the fact that we do not have energy is in itself a lost opportunity to maximise the potential of the agriculture sector. So until we’ve solved the energy problem, we will not salvage waste – and for me that is a lost opportunity.

    CHN: AGRA, an institution focused on scaling agricultural innovations to help smallholder farmers, estimates a massive shortfall between current investments in the continent’s food systems and what is actually needed to build a resilient, profitable agricultural economy – to the tune of $180 billion per year. Can integrating energy into food systems help bridge that gap?

    A: Yes – if energy can help unlock the potential to earn more money, investors will follow the money. Investments go where there is certainty, and until there is certainty around cash flow and revenue, investment will be limited.

    My vision is to see more Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) being signed between energy players and the agriculture sector. We can start by getting people into the room, understanding their pain points, crafting a framework and documentation that works for both parties, and then seeing deals happen.

    This interview was shortened and edited for clarity.

    The post How clean energy can boost business for Africa’s food producers appeared first on Climate Home News.

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    Climate Change

    Human security relies on adapting to the world’s new climate reality

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    Cristina Rumbaitis del Rio is a senior advisor on adaptation and resilience with the United Nations Foundation and Mattias Söderberg is global climate lead at Danish NGO DanChurchAid.

    Recent extreme events – from wildfires and heatwaves in Europe to flash flooding following a glacier collapse in Nepal – have shocked and devastated communities, bringing years of warnings about such climate impacts to the doorstep of communities around the world.

    One thing is certain: the new climate reality is here – and the adaptation strategies designed for yesterday’s world are no longer sufficient.

    Attribution science has since shown that the hotter and more frequent heatwaves we’re experiencing around the world would have been virtually impossible without today’s high concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Climate shocks are now so severe that they reverberate through supply chains, food and water systems, financial markets and the movement of people.

      They must be a catalyst for a new way of thinking about adaptation and resilience, and how we finance solutions that work. A failure to invest in adaptation in one region can create costs far beyond it, which is why the concept of shared resilience is critical for leaders to grasp.

      Investment not charity

      At the UN General Assembly (UNGA 81) this month, leaders have an opportunity to translate today’s urgency into concrete commitments on adaptation and loss and damage finance ahead of COP31.

      Those commitments are needed to underpin global stability, shared prosperity and human security. Governments should use this moment to show what a new response looks like: finance that reaches communities faster, supports locally grounded solutions, strengthens national systems, and helps countries prepare before the next shock arrives.

      If we want sustained economic growth, food and water security, and resilient and prosperous societies across every region, adaptation must be at the heart of today’s development and security agenda. It cannot be just a future planning consideration or a narrow issue for climate ministries. Adaptation is now everyone’s business – and it must be financed fast and fair.

      UN Secretary-General António Guterres has repeatedly framed climate finance as an investment rather than charity, warning that “a world in climate chaos cannot be a world at peace” and describing human security as freedom from the chronic and sudden disruptions that climate change multiplies.

      What’s more, adaptation delivers a real return-on-investment, with researchers estimating that every dollar invested produces $10 in benefits, saving lives, protecting livelihoods, and reducing the costs of future disasters.

      Hitting adaptation limits

      The urgency to scale adaptation systematically is growing. The newly released “Limiting Overshoot” report from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) confirms what scientists have long warned: exceeding global warming of 1.5C is now unavoidable under current policies. Yet, how high temperatures rise – and how long the world remains above the 1.5C threshold – will determine whether communities, economies and entire ecosystems can keep pace.

      There are limits to adaptation. When we breach those limits, lives and livelihoods are lost, and people and ecosystems suffer greatly. We cannot simply build yesterday’s infrastructure a little stronger and assume it will be enough.

      Nepal flood destruction shows “limits to adaptation”, scientists say

      We need to fundamentally change the systems that determine how societies anticipate, absorb and recover from both immediate and evolving non-linear climate shocks. This includes transforming physical systems, such as infrastructure, and the governance systems that affect where and how we live to how we maintain our health and wellbeing.

      Finance today is nowhere near the scale of the challenge.

      The UNEP “Adaptation Gap Report 2025” estimates the shortfall in adaptation finance in developing countries at $284 billion–$339 billion a year – roughly 12 to 14 times current international public flows of around $26 billion. That gap is a development, economic and human security problem, especially for the most vulnerable populations who have contributed the least to causing the climate crisis.

      Building resilience into financial systems

      There are already signs of what a more systemic adaptation response could look like. Communities around the world are delivering practical solutions at local level, even as adaptation finance remains notoriously, and appallingly, difficult to access. Cyclone-resistant homes, local forecasting capacities, drought-resistant crops, heat insurance for pregnant informal workers and mangrove restoration are rooted in local knowledge and lived experience, while delivering benefits far beyond the communities where they originate from.

      But local innovation alone is not enough; the systems around it need to be resilient too.

      Jamaica offers one example. The country has built a multi-layered disaster-risk financing framework, including a catastrophe bond and contingency funds, through sustained fiscal discipline and proactive investment. Its debt-to-GDP ratio fell from around 147% in 2012 to around 62% in 202-25. That groundwork matters when disaster strikes.

      Hurricane Melissa’s destruction shows need for climate resilience push

      Following Hurricane Melissa, Jamaica was able to secure billions of dollars in reconstruction financing from multilateral banks – finance that might otherwise have been much harder to access. The lesson is clear: resilience can be built into the financial architecture of a country before a crisis arrives. That is the shift we now need to make at scale.

      The foundations already exist – in Kingston’s fiscal reforms, in early-warning systems from the Sahel to the Pacific, and in every community that adapted before disaster struck. What is still missing is the political will, and the finance, to take what works and put it to work everywhere, at the speed our world’s new climate reality demands.

      To hear more on this issue from high-level officials and experts, sign up for this event during Climate Week NYC, at 8am EDT on September 24 (in person or online), moderated by Climate Home News Editor Megan Rowling: Adapting to the New Climate Reality: Why Accelerating Impacts Demand New Responses.

      The post Human security relies on adapting to the world’s new climate reality appeared first on Climate Home News.

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      Framing the climate science debate as a binary battle isn’t just wrong – it’s dangerous

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      Lidy Nacpil is the coordinator of Asian Peoples’ Movement on Debt and Development (APMDD).

      Recent reporting on international climate negotiations has highlighted a sharpening divide within civil society and multilateral diplomacy. A troubling, simplistic narrative has taken root: that the UN climate process is witnessing a binary struggle between defenders of science and those attacking it.

      This framing is not only inaccurate; it is dangerous. Characterising a substantive methodological and political debate in these terms misdiagnoses the stakes and stirs conflict instead of clarity.

      No one disputes that climate action must rest on science. Science tells us what has led us to the climate crisis – the accumulation of historical emissions – and how much carbon budget remains if we are to keep temperature rise below 1.5C. It tells us how much global emissions must drop, and how fast. Science is also essential in assessing each country’s historical contribution to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

      Responsibility, however, must also be based on capacity. For those who generated the largest share of historical emissions, that capacity includes the enormous wealth and economic power accumulated through the same fossil-fuel-intensive development that generated those emissions.

      As science comes under attack at UN talks, climate movement splits over how to respond

      While principles that should guide human action aren’t scientific questions – they are matters of values – applying them to real-world problems requires scientific grounding. Equity recognises the scientifically established reality of differentiated responsibilities among countries and within societies. Putting equity into practice demands scientific rigour.

      Scrutiny of IPCC models

      Today, critics are scrutinising the assumptions and frameworks behind the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), used to project future scenarios and map global mitigation pathways. These concerns centre squarely on equity and justice.

      The economic, technological and policy assumptions used in IAM scenarios are normative choices rather than scientifically prescribed or neutral facts. These include choices about discount rates, economic growth, energy demand, technology costs, carbon prices, land availability and the regional location of mitigation. Many IAM scenarios reproduce existing global inequalities rather than transform them. Questions about transparency, representativeness and diversity in the scientific process are deeply urgent.

      Most IAM scenarios are built primarily around global cost-effectiveness – directing emissions reductions to places where mitigation is modelled as cheapest rather than allocating effort according to historical responsibility, capacity and development needs.

      The resulting pathways allow developed countries to retain disproportionately high levels of energy and fossil-fuel consumption while requiring developing countries to undertake substantial mitigation and carbon removal, including land-based measures that threaten food security and local development.

      Northern models often assume uniform access to cheap financing. In reality, Global South economies face far higher capital costs, driving up the price tag of rapid infrastructure shifts.

      Constraints on development space

      Scenario constraints also limit the development space poorer nations need without guaranteeing adequate climate finance. When models treat profoundly unequal starting points as uniform baselines, policy pathways lock in global inequality under the banner of scientific objectivity.

      Pointing out these structural flaws isn’t rejecting science. It is essential scientific scrutiny aimed at producing stronger, fairer, and more actionable results.

      Science ‘under attack’ from fossil fuel interests at UN climate talks

      The fight is not about whether we want to keep temperature rise below 1.5C, but about how we get there. A pathway can be technically compatible with 1.5C or 2C while still being deeply unequal in who gets to consume energy, who must reduce emissions, and whose development is constrained. Temperature compatibility alone does not make a pathway fair.

      Critiquing IAM scenarios from an equity perspective is neither an attack on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) nor an attack on science. Rigorously examining IPCC reports – their substance, assumptions, and processes – is an acknowledgement of the IPCC’s importance and entirely consistent with scientific method.

      Tensions over AR7 timing

      There is a separate but related tension over the cycle and timeline of the IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report (AR7). Some governments and civil society voices advocate completing its Working Group reports in time to feed directly into the UN’s Second Global Stocktake in 2028.

      The motivation makes sense: policymakers need timely science. But several developing-country negotiators and researchers have warned that meeting that deadline could severely disadvantage the Global South.

      Funding gap threatens next round of IPCC climate science reports, chair warns

      Global North authors and institutions remain disproportionately represented in the research underlying IAM assessments. Developing-country researchers often work with fewer institutional resources, smaller research budgets, and less administrative support. Accelerated publishing and assessment schedules can further limit their ability to generate, submit, and peer-review research in time for inclusion.

      The AR7 timeline concerns boil down to inclusivity, representation, and equity. Requiring the IPCC to meet tight political calendars without ensuring meaningful support and participation for developing-country researchers risks reproducing the very inequalities being challenged.

      Cooperation requires equity

      Political interests are indeed at work in UNFCCC negotiations and must be surfaced. Bad-faith actors seek to evade fossil-fuel phase-outs or shirk climate-finance obligations. Many developed country parties are guilty of both, including those who style themselves as “Friends of Science.”

      We must not lump legitimate scientific critiques raised by several Global South researchers and many civil society organisations concerning representation, economic assumptions and fair-share accounting together with obstructionism. Doing so risks misrepresenting and delegitimising critical scientific work and Global South equity and justice perspectives.

      The climate movement is strongest when it aligns rigorous science with global equity and justice. Achieving the Paris Agreement’s goals requires robust science that fully integrates the experiences, economic realities and academic contributions of the Global South. Effective climate action also requires international cooperation, and without equity, such cooperation cannot be sustained. We do not have to choose between science and equity. We need both.

      The post Framing the climate science debate as a binary battle isn’t just wrong – it’s dangerous appeared first on Climate Home News.

      Framing the climate science debate as a binary battle isn’t just wrong – it’s dangerous

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