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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.

China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight.
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Key developments

China’s role at COP29 and beyond

‘COOPERATIVE’ COP: China’s “role” at the COP29 climate talks, which concluded over the weekend in Baku, Azerbaijan, was “markedly different to previous years”, with its negotiators being “unusually cooperative”, according to an anonymous “chief negotiator” for a “powerful” country quoted by BBC News. Bloomberg cited sources “close to the Chinese delegation” explaining that “Chinese officials moved to soothe angry delegations from India, Saudi Arabia, Africa and the small island group” during the tense final plenary. It added that China’s delegation head Zhao Yingmin, who is also the vice minister of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE), held “one-on-one conversations with delegates in the final hours to warn things would be worse without COP29’s finance agreement”. COP29 president Mukhtar Babayev wrote in the Guardian that China “coordinat[ed] their response to the negotiations…with the G77 group”. Babayev also claimed that “the Chinese were willing to offer more [climate finance] if others did so too”. (For more on China’s role at COP29, see the Spotlight.)

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GLOBAL CALLS: As concerns over the US’s future role loomed over the two-week summit, UN climate chief Simon Stiell said the world “will need China’s continued leadership” to meet climate goals, Politico reported. This was echoed by South Africa’s environment minister, who said China “has an opportunity to lead the global fight against climate change”, according to Bloomberg. BBC News quoted Jonathan Pershing, program director of environment at the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, saying that, should China become the de-facto leader at future COPs, it “won’t lead from the front, like the US and Europe”, but instead would “discreetly interven[e] to unblock disputes…behind closed doors”.

CHINA’S REACTION: In response to Stiell, Politico quoted Zhao saying: “China has contributed in addressing climate change. But, in the future, China will do our best to contribute more.” Zhao also said in an interview with business news outlet 21st Century Herald that China will be “the backbone of the global response to climate change”. Nevertheless, Chinese climate envoy Liu Zhenmin told Beijing News that “people expect China and the EU to work together to fill this gap [of US leadership], which is a very good wish, but, in practice, it is very difficult”. (Read more in the Spotlight below.) China’s foreign ministry noted that agreements at COP29 demonstrated global “willingness” to address climate change, although it added that developed countries should “effectively fulfil their obligations and responsibilities”, Shanghai-based news outlet the Paper said. A commentary in the party-affiliated People’s Daily under the nom de plume “Heyin”, which is used for articles expressing the view of party leadership on international affairs, said COP29 “consolidated the momentum” of the global energy transition, adding that “no matter how the [geopolitical] climate changes, China’s determination…to actively address climate change will remain unchanged”. Elsewhere, an editorial in the state-run newspaper China Daily argued COP29 was an “unusual climate diplomacy success” as it broke “the long-standing multilateral negotiations stalemate over climate financing”.

New China research

EARLY PEAK: Meanwhile, on the sidelines of COP29, an assessment by research institute the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) of China’s energy transition in 2024 found that the clean energy industry “continued to exceed forecasts”, but that spiking energy consumption meant record additions served only to “stabilise emissions, not to push them down”. It added that 52% of experts surveyed by CREA expected China’s coal consumption to peak by 2025 and 44% believe China’s carbon emissions have already peaked or will peak by 2025.

POLLUTING PROVINCES: Al Gore-backed research institute Climate Trace released a report finding that Shanghai was the world’s “most polluting” city, Fortune said. It added that “seven states or provinces spew more than 1bn metric tonnes of greenhouse gases [per year]”, six of which are in China – the exception being Texas.

POWER SYSTEM REFORM: The International Energy Agency also presented a report at COP29 examining the “evolving flexibility requirements of China’s power system” during its energy transition, finding that “non-fossil resources, such as hydropower, battery storage and demand response, could fulfil nearly 60% of [China’s] short-term flexibility needs by 2030”, according to a press statement.

‘INSUFFICIENT’ SPEED: The 2024 Global Carbon Neutrality Progress Report, released by Beijing’s Tsinghua University, evaluated progress in 151 countries that have set carbon neutrality targets. The report said that developing countries have higher “ambitions” and willingness to reduce emissions than developed countries. However, it added that the “current speed of renewable energy development globally is insufficient” to meet the target of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030 – a goal set at COP28 in an effort to limit global warming to 1.5C.

Xi at APEC and G20 

SUNNIER CLIMES: As his subordinates hashed out details in Baku, President Xi Jinping’s attendance of the APEC economic leaders’ meeting in Peru and G20 summit in Brazil “fuelled expectations that China will continue championing…better global governance”, China Daily said, adding that during APEC Xi “emphasised the importance of innovation, openness, green development and inclusive growth”. Xi also inaugurated Peru’s Chancay port – built by a Chinese company – as Beijing “look[s] to further tap into resource-rich Latin America”, Reuters reported. At the G20 summit, Xi noted the importance of supporting developing countries in “responding to…climate change, biodiversity loss and environmental pollution”, state news agency Xinhua said. China also signed 37 agreements with Brazil, according to the Associated Press, which included specific agreements on mining, solar and nuclear power. 
UK-CHINA TIES: In the first high-level meeting between the UK and China since 2018, UK prime minister Keir Starmer told Xi that the UK “would like to engage with Beijing on areas such as trade, the economy and climate”, Reuters reported. Starmer told the UK House of Commons that the two countries need to “work together on challenges such as climate change and delivering growth”, adding that he and Xi “agreed a new dialogue on these issues, which [UK chancellor Rachel Reeves] will take forward with vice premier He [Lifeng] in Beijing” next year, according to a transcript of his remarks.

‘Disorderly expansion’ of solar factories targeted

RAISING REQUIREMENTS: China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) raised minimum capital requirements for construction and expansion of solar-manufacturing projects, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post said, adding that MIIT also urged manufacturers to limit projects that are “merely meant to increase capacity”. Lin Boqiang, director of Xiamen University’s China Energy Policy Research Institute, told business news outlet Yicai the move will “control the disorderly expansion of production capacity”.

LOWERING REBATES: China’s finance and tax bodies also “announced a reduction in the export tax rebate” for solar products, “squeezing profit margins” and possibly leading to companies “increasing export prices”, PV Magazine reported, in what may be “part of a longer-term strategy”. Finance news outlet Wall Street CN noted that rebates for batteries will also shrink, but that manufacturers will still have a “price advantage in overseas markets”. 

EXPERT VIEWS: Liu Shijin, former vice-president of the Development Research Centre (DRC) and chief advisor at the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development (CCICED), said in a speech covered by Yicai that “overcapacity” is a “normal process of market competition”, adding that the government should avoid “disturbing” industries through “administrative intervention and unfair competition”, and instead encourage market expansion by “accelerating the shift from dual-control of energy consumption to dual-control of carbon emissions”.

Spotlight

COP29: How China approached the UN climate talks in Baku

As ever at COPs, a key question was how the world’s current largest annual emitter, China, would approach the talks. This year, with Donald Trump being reelected as the US president, more expectations fell on China to step up and do more.

In this article, Carbon Brief summaries some of the key points China made at COP29. This is a summary of “China at COP29” in Carbon Brief’s in-depth summary of the event’s key outcomes.

China arrived at the COP29 UN climate talks in Baku with the fifth-largest delegation, continuing its recent trend of major showings at the annual summit.

At the high-level opening of the talks, China’s vice premier Ding Xuexiang – who is president Xi Jinping’s “special representative” at COP – declared that his country had “provided and mobilised project funds of more than 177bn yuan ($24.5bn) for developing countries’ climate response” since 2016. 

This was the first time China used the language of climate finance to talk about its overseas aid. It quickly drew attention to Beijing’s intentions and levels of ambition for climate finance. 

Kate Logan, director of the China climate hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI), wrote on Twitter that this placed China “on the same order – if not higher than – many developed countries’ efforts” on climate finance. 

Dialogue Earth reported that Beijing has contributed more than $30bn to global climate finance since the launch of its “Belt and Road Initiative”, putting China “on a par with the UK, to become the joint fifth-largest provider of climate finance after Japan, Germany, the US and France”. 

However, entering week two, China’s stance on climate finance remained firm – it said it would not agree to make any compulsory contributions, including to the new climate finance goal (NCQG) that was being negotiated at the summit. 

China’s new climate envoy Liu Zhenmin, replacing Xie Zhenhua, told the Paper, a Shanghai-based outlet, that paying for the NCQG was “their business”, referring to developed countries.

During the closing stages of COP29, Xia Yingxian, director of the department of climate change of the Ministry of Environment and Ecology, said that a serious climate finance offer from developed countries was the “master switch and golden key” to a deal in Baku.

Liu was also quoted by state-run newspaper China Daily, saying China is “not obliged to contribute to the post-2025 climate financing target that is expected to be announced during COP29”. 

At the closing plenary, Carbon Brief heard Zhao Yingmin, head of Chinese delegation and the vice minister of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE), saying that developed countries’ NCQG commitments were still “fall far short of meeting the needs of developing nations” and that developed countries’ “financial obligations must be further clarified”.

Nevertheless, China said it remained open to multilateral cooperation on climate change. 

Chen Zhihua, deputy director of China’s National Centre for Climate Strategy and International Cooperation, told Carbon Brief that Donald Trump being reelected as the US president “certainly is a big thing that people talk about and [we] have concerns about how things will turn out”. 

He added: “It will have big impacts, but China won’t change its strategy – we will cooperate with whoever for global cooperation on climate change.”

Wen Hua, deputy director-general of the Department of Resources Conservation and Environmental Protection at China’s top planner the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said at another event attended by Carbon Brief: “China is willing to take a more active role in global climate governance.”

Throughout COP29, China strongly identified itself as a developing country. China, together with the G77 group of developing counties, rejected an initial draft for the NCQG framework. According to BBC News, they wanted “public grants of $500bn per year”.

At the South-South Cooperation on Climate Change forum hosted by China, Carbon Brief heard Huang Runqiu, minister of the MEE, saying that the world needs multilateral cooperation on combating climate change, but that “green trade barriers” prevent better cooperation, especially for developing countries.

Wang Can, director of the department of environmental planning and management at Beijing’s Tsinghua University, explained to Carbon Brief that the “green trade barriers” are “bans and tariffs…mainly from the US” on renewable technology products. 

Both Chinese academics and multiple senior officials expressed their desire for international cooperation on energy transition at COP29. 

For example, Wen called the energy transition “fundamental” for China at an event hosted by the country’s COP29 pavilion. 

China also stated some of its specific targets and actions for addressing climate change, such as the latest emissions standards for coalbed methane introduced by Liu at a methane summit held during COP29. 

Regarding China’s next NDC, an anonymous scholar told Carbon Brief that shifts in the new pledge could lie in “adjusting the timeline of [the] ‘dual-carbon’ goal”, which currently targets a peak in emissions “before 2030” and carbon neutrality “by 2060”. (For more views, see Carbon Brief’s “Experts: What to expect in China’s climate pledge for 2035.”)

China has already adjusted its “dual-carbon” goal from “achieving carbon peak by 2030” to “before 2030”. Bai Quan, director of the Energy Research Institute of the Academy of Macroeconomic Research (AMR), a government-affiliated “national high-end thinktank”, told Carbon Brief that while “we would love to try our best…we can’t rule out all possibilities to peak even earlier than planned”.

(Read Carbon Brief’s full-length interview with Bai and his colleague Lyu Wenbin.)

Captured

China's contribution to global warming has just overtaken the EU. Chart showing cumulative historical CO2 emissions, 1850-2024, in billion tonnes.

China’s historical carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions within its borders are now higher than the 27 member states of the EU combined, new Carbon Brief analysis found, although it is “still far behind” and “unlikely to ever overtake” the US total. The analysis – which was covered by the New York Times under the headline: “China’s soaring emissions are upending climate politics” – noted that when viewed on a per-capita basis, using 2024 figures, China’s contribution is “just 227tCO2 per capita, less than a third of the 682tCO2 for people in the EU27”.

Watch, read, listen

PROGRESS UPDATE: China Water Risk published an analysis of China’s progress towards its carbon targets and its “potential” to accelerate its shift away from coal.

MINERAL TRANSITION: The China-Global South Podcast, aired by the Sinic Podcast Network, discussed “Indonesia’s uncomfortable position squeezed between China and the US in the race to dominate transition mineral supply chains”.

KEYNOTE: The South China Morning Post interviewed Ma Jun, founder of the Beijing-based Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs (IPE), on prospects for future US-China climate diplomacy and China’s path to carbon neutrality.
MEXICAN STANDOFF: The electric vehicle-focused newsletter Dunne Insights assessed why Chinese car exports to Mexico have spiked in recent months, and how it might be “pressured” by the US and Canada to respond.


88 

The number of extreme weather events in China that had their “severity or likelihood” increased by climate change, out of a total of 114 attribution studies covering the country, according to Carbon Brief analysis. The figures come from Carbon Brief’s updated “attribution map”, which covers every attribution study published since the method was developed in 2004. The map includes more than 600 studies, with China making up 16%. More than 70% of the China-focused studies were published in the past four years, significantly higher than average.


New science

Mortality burden of diabetes attributable to high temperature and heatwave under climate change scenarios in China 

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

The number of heat-related diabetes deaths in Chinese cities is expected to increase by the end of the century as a result of global warming, a new study warned. The authors predicted deaths due to extreme heat over 2010-2100 in 32 “major” Chinese cities. They projected that under the low warming SSP1-2.6 scenario, the heat-attributable fraction of diabetes deaths will rise from 2.3% in the 2010s to 4.6% in the 2090s. Under the high warming SSP5-8.5 scenario, the fraction could rise to 19.2% in the 2090s, they added.

Provincial inequalities in life cycle carbon dioxide emissions and air pollutants from electric vehicles in China

Communications Earth & Environment

Electric vehicles in China have nearly a 12% reduction in CO2 as compared to internal combustion engines, according to new research. Researchers carried out a life-cycle analysis of internal combustion engines, plug-in hybrid vehicles and battery EVs in each of China’s provinces. They found that while battery EVs reduced CO2 and nitrogen oxide emissions, they had higher emissions of sulphur dioxide and particulate matter. The authors wrote that “improving technological progress and optimising electricity mix will greatly assist in achieving emissions reduction”.

China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org

The post China Briefing 28 November 2024: How China approached COP29; Xi cuts energy deals in South America; Solar’s ‘disorderly’ expansion appeared first on Carbon Brief.

China Briefing 28 November 2024: How China approached COP29; Xi cuts energy deals in South America; Solar’s ‘disorderly’ expansion

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Germany election 2025: What the manifestos say on energy and climate change

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A federal election is taking place in Germany on 23 February, following the collapse of the coalition government at the end of last year.

Germans will vote to elect 630 members of the nation’s parliament.

Polling suggests there will be a political shift to the right, with the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in the lead and far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) set to make significant gains.

A “traffic light” coalition of parties has ruled since 2021, led by the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), alongside the Green Party and the Free Democratic Party (FDP).

However, successive crises led to its breakup at the end of 2024, when the liberal, free market-oriented FDP split from the rest.

This prompted a vote of no confidence by the German parliament, which, in turn, triggered a snap election several months earlier than previously scheduled.

The coalition government has been plagued by ideological differences, particularly between the FDP and its two centre-left partners.

Climate policies were at the heart of many of the disputes. 

The centre-left SPD and Greens have broadly favoured more public spending on climate issues, while the FDP is opposed to state intervention of any sort.

In the interactive grid below, Carbon Brief tracks the commitments made by each of the main parties in their election manifestos, across a range of issues related to climate and energy.

The parties covered are:

  • Christian Democratic Union (CDU)/Christian Social Union (CSU): The centre-right CDU and its regional Bavarian “sister party”, CSU, has been the dominant political force in modern Germany and is currently polling highest ahead of the election.
  • Social Democratic Party (SPD): The centre-left SPD has led the ruling coalition in Germany since the last election in 2021 and has traditionally been the other dominant party in the nation’s politics.
  • Green Party: The centre-left and environmentalist Greens have been part of the coalition government since 2021.
  • Free Democratic Party (FDP): The FDP is an economically liberal party that prioritises free markets and privatisation. It was part of the coalition government, but its departure at the end of 2024 ultimately triggered the federal election.
  • Left Party: In recent years, this left-wing, democratic-socialist party has lost much of its support base in the east of the country.
  • Alternative for Germany (AfD): The far-right party has become a major force in the country’s politics over the past decade, particularly in eastern Germany.
  • Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW): The party was only founded last year, as an offshoot of the Left Party, but it has rapidly risen in popularity with a left-wing economic message and a conservative approach to some social and cultural issues.

Each entry in the grid represents a direct quote from a manifesto document.

Net-zero and climate framing

Climate action has become a divisive topic in German politics.

This is evident in the major parties’ manifestos, which range from supporting more ambitious net-zero goals to outright climate scepticism.

Germany is currently aiming to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045, with interim targets including a 65% cut by 2030.

Government climate advisors on the Council of Experts on Climate Change have stated that the nation is on track to miss the 2030 target.

Despite starting out with ambitious aims, the coalition’s climate progress has faltered, with the FDP successfully pushing for weaker climate policies. Moreover, a major court ruling curtailed the government’s climate spending by enforcing Germany’s limit on debt. 

Amid these wider tensions, Germany’s two traditionally dominant parties still want to retain the nation’s headline climate target. The CDU, which is leading the polls in the run-up to election day, commits to meeting the Paris Agreement goals in its manifesto, saying its sights are “firmly set” on net-zero by 2045.

The SPD, which is currently third in the polls and likely to end up in coalition with the CDU, also supports the 2045 net-zero target, as well as the interim goals.

However, the two parties differ substantially in their approach to meeting the 2045 target. The CDU prioritises carbon pricing and rejects the tougher policies to decarbonise heating and transport favoured by the SPD. (See: Heating dispute and Combustion engine phaseout.)

Meanwhile, the AfD manifesto repeatedly questions the “supposed scientific consensus” on “man-made climate change”. The party, which is currently second in the polls, “therefore rejects every policy and every tax that is related to alleged climate protection”.

Mainstream German parties across the spectrum have long agreed to a “firewall” against far-right groups, meaning they will not form coalitions with the AfD. However, the CDU recently sparked controversy when it backed an anti-immigration policy with the AfD.

The Green Party also supports the 2045 net-zero target in its manifesto, emphasising Germany’s status as the EU member state with the highest emissions. The Left Party goes further, calling for a 2040 net-zero goal.

As for the FDP, its manifesto argues for the 2045 net-zero goal to be pushed back to 2050, stating that this would align Germany with the EU target. Prior to exiting the coalition government last year, the party had demanded this policy change, claiming that it would be a way to boost the German economy.

(Germany already revised its net-zero target, bringing it forward by five years, following a supreme court ruling in 2021 that its 2050 goal was insufficient. Moreover, even with a later goal, Germany would still need to align with wider EU targets, meaning its climate policies may not change much due to its “effort sharing” obligations.)

Finally, the BSW is not specific about when the net-zero goal should be achieved, but pushes for a “departure from the wishful thinking of quickly achieving complete climate neutrality”.

It does not reject climate policies outright, stating that climate change should be “taken seriously”. However, it frames many climate policies as being “extremely expensive and often unrealistic”.

Heating dispute

Home heating has become a major political issue in Germany. Along with transport, buildings make up one of the key German sectors that have repeatedly missed their decarbonisation goals, prompting the coalition government to take action.

Towards the end of 2023, the German parliament passed an amendment to the Building Energy Act, meaning that newly installed heating systems had to be powered by at least 65% renewable energy. 

This covered heat pumps, “hydrogen-ready” gas boilers and other low-carbon systems. There are caveats to ensure the law is phased in gradually in different areas and types of homes, starting with new builds.

The amendment had been watered down compared to the coalition’s initial proposal, with allowances for people to keep gas boilers for longer. This followed relentless campaigning by the AfD and the right-leaning tabloid newspaper Bild, which dubbed the policy the “heizhammer” – or “heating hammer”.

There were also attacks from within the coalition, with the FDP criticising the law proposed by its partners in the Greens and SDP. Opponents framed the policy as an excessive burden on consumers.

These disputes are reflected in the election manifestos, with many parties outright rejecting the amended law. The CDU, FDP and AfD all say they would abolish it, as does the populist left BSW.

Meanwhile, the Green Party pledges to provide more government support for the installation of new heating systems by covering up to 70% of the price. The Left Party commits to covering 100% of the cost for low-income households.

(The current law covers 30% of the cost as a starting subsidy, with more available for low-income households and people who replace their boilers before 2028.)

Combustion engine phaseout

Several German political parties are pushing back against the EU-wide ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars, which is set to come into effect in 2035.

The CDU says the “ban on combustion engines must be reversed”, while the AfD says the “one-sided preference for electromobility must be stopped immediately”.

(EVs are “likely crucial” for tackling transport emissions, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC].)

The FDP and the BSW also argue that the 2035 phaseout date should be dropped, with less focus on the transition to electric cars. (This is in spite of Germany being the second-biggest manufacturer of electric cars in the world.)

These parties also favour getting rid of supposed “anti-car” policies. For example, they oppose speed limits on the German “autobahns” and support funding for alternative fuels, such as synthetic fuels.

The issue with ending the 2035 ban on new combustion-engine cars is that this policy is set at the EU level. Far-right and centre-right coalitions within the EU, including German parties, have been pushing hard to weaken the ban across the bloc. 

However, the centre-left parties that may end up forming a coalition with the CDU, notably the SPD, stand by the 2035 phaseout date.

There is growing pressure on Germany’s car industry, linked to global competition and slow economic growth. Some German industry figures have stressed the need for consistent policy signals from the government, regarding the transition to electric vehicles.

Clean energy and fossil fuels

Broadly speaking, German parties on the left tend to be more supportive of renewables, while strongly opposing nuclear power. Those on the right are generally more open to nuclear and in some cases coal power.

Germany, which uses more coal than any other EU member state, has a coal power phaseout date of 2038. This is supported by the CDU and the FDP, but the Greens and the Left Party want a quicker phaseout by 2030.

(When the coalition government formed in 2021, the parties agreed to “ideally” move the coal phaseout date to 2030, but this has not happened formally. The SPD manifesto does not include any mention of coal power,)

Only the AfD advocates for the construction of new coal power plants, framing them as filling a gap until new nuclear plants are built.

Last year, Germany closed down its final nuclear reactors, bringing an end to a long-term plan to phase out the power source. However, nuclear power continues to be a politicised topic, with some arguing that its continued use is necessary to ensure the nation’s energy security.

Notably, the CDU suggests in its manifesto that it is open to reviving nuclear power in the future. It proposes an “expert review” around restarting closed plants and advocates for research on advanced nuclear technologies, such as small modular reactors.

Despite this wording, CDU leader Friedrich Merz has conceded that it is unlikely any old reactors will be restarted. This echoes views expressed by German utility companies and energy experts.

Both the CDU and the SPD support the expansion of renewables in their manifestos. The Greens include a specific target to achieve a net-zero electricity grid by 2035. By contrast, the AfD calls for an end to wind power expansion, in favour of other technologies.

Finally, both the far-right AfD and the BSW say the German government should repair the damaged Nord Stream pipelines in order to import what the BSW refers to as “cheap” gas from Russia. (The Baltic Sea pipelines were blown up in 2022 under mysterious circumstances.)

Germany has tried to wean itself off Russian gas since the country’s invasion of Ukraine, with considerable success. However, both the AfD and the BSW are more open to cooperating with Russia, and less supportive of Ukraine, than mainstream German parties.

The post Germany election 2025: What the manifestos say on energy and climate change appeared first on Carbon Brief.

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Guest post: How atmospheric rivers are bringing rain to West Antarctica 

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“Atmospheric rivers” are bringing rain to the frozen slopes of the West Antarctic ice sheet, hitting the ice shelves that play a major role in holding back rapidly retreating glaciers.

In a new study, my colleagues and I show how rain is occurring in sub-zero temperatures due to these “rivers in the sky” – long, narrow plumes of air which transport heat and moisture from the tropics to the mid-latitudes and poles.

Rain in Antarctica is significant, not only because it is a stark indicator of climate change, but because it remains an under-studied phenomenon which could impact ice shelves.

Ice shelves in Antarctica are important gatekeepers of sea level rise.

They act as a buffer for glaciers that flow off the vast ice sheet, slowing the rate at which ice is released into the ocean.

In the study, we explore the causes of rain falling on ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea embayment region, which stand in front of the critically important Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers.

Researchers have warned the collapse of ice shelves in this region could trigger the loss of the entire West Antarctic ice sheet over several centuries.

Rivers in the sky

Atmospheric rivers are typically associated with bringing extreme rainfall to the mid-latitudes, but, in the frigid Antarctic, they can deliver metres of snow in just a few days. 

In West Antarctica, atmospheric rivers deliver a disproportionate quantity of the year’s snowfall. Research shows they account for around 13% of annual snowfall totals, despite occurring on just a few days per year.

But what makes atmospheric rivers in Antarctica so interesting is that snow is only part of the story. In extreme cases, they can also bring rain.

To explore how extreme precipitation affects the Amundsen Sea embayment region, we focused on two events associated with atmospheric rivers in 2020. The summer case took place over a week in February and the winter case over six days in June.

We used three regional climate models to simulate the two extreme weather events around the Thwaites and Pine Island ice shelves, then compared the results with snowfall observations.

During both the winter and summer cases, we find that atmospheric rivers dumped tens of metres of snow over the course of a week or so.

Meanwhile, the quantities of rain driven by these events were not insignificant. We observed up to 30mm of rain on parts of the Thwaites ice shelf in summer and up to 9mm in winter.

Amundsen sea, map.
A map of the Amundsen Sea embayment region in West Antarctica. Source: Produced by the British Antarctic Survey’s Mapping and Geographic Information Centre, 2025.

A mountain to climb

Antarctica’s cold climate and steep, icy topography make it unique. It also makes the region prone to rain in sub-zero temperatures.

The first reason for this is the foehn effect, which is when air forced over a mountain range warms as it descends on the downward slope.

Commonly observed across Antarctica, it is an important cause of melting over ice shelves on the Antarctic peninsula, the northernmost point of the continent. 

When air passes over the mountainous terrain of the West Antarctic ice sheet during atmospheric river events, temperatures near the surface of the ice shelves can climb above the melting point of 0C.

This can accentuate the formation of rain and drizzle that stays liquid below 0C – also known as “supercooled drizzle”.

Another factor which leads to liquid drizzle, rather than snow, in sub-zero conditions is a lack of dust and dirt – particles which are usually needed to trigger the formation of ice crystals in clouds.

In the pristine Antarctic, these particles – which act as “ice nuclei” – are few and far between. That means that pure liquid water can exist even when temperatures are below 0C.

The origins of rain over ice shelves

It is easy to assume that rain that reaches the surface in Antarctica is just snow that has melted after falling through a warm layer of air caused by the foehn effect. Indeed, this is what we initially supposed.

But our research shows that more rain reaches the surface of Antarctica when the air near the ground is within a few degrees of freezing.

At times when the foehn effect is strongest, there is often little or no rainfall, because it evaporates before it gets a chance to reach the surface.

However, we saw rain falling well above the warm layer of air near the surface, where temperatures were universally below 0C – and, in some cases, as low as -11C.

Rare rain

Rain in Antarctica is a rare occurrence. The region’s normally frigid temperatures mean that most precipitation over the continent falls as snow.

However, exactly how rare rain is in the region remains relatively unknown, because there are virtually zero measurements of rainfall in Antarctica.

There are a number of reasons for this – rain falls infrequently, and it is very difficult to measure in the hostile Antarctic environment.

Our results show that extreme events such as atmospheric rivers can bring rain. And it is likely that rain will become a more common occurrence in the future as temperatures rise and extreme weather events occur more frequently.

However, until rain starts being measured in Antarctica, scientists will have to rely entirely on models to predict rain, as we did in this research.

It is also not yet known exactly how rain could impact ice in Antarctica.

We do know that rain falling on snow darkens the surface, which can enhance melting, leading to greater ice losses. Meanwhile, rain that refreezes in the snowpack or trickles to the base of the ice can change the way that glaciers flow, impacting the resilience of ice shelves to fracture.

So, if we want to understand the future of the frozen continent, we need to start thinking about rain too. Because while rain may be rare now, it may not be for long.

The post Guest post: How atmospheric rivers are bringing rain to West Antarctica  appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Guest post: How atmospheric rivers are bringing rain to West Antarctica 

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Colombia’s COP16 presidency in suspense as minister resigns

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Susana Muhamad, Colombia’s minister of environment since 2022 and president of the COP16 UN biodiversity negotiations, has announced she will step down from government, but has asked President Gustavo Petro to let her stay in her post to conclude the UN nature talks later in February.

In her resignation letter, addressed to the president and dated February 8, Muhamad said she was quitting as a minister but urged him to consider “the need to conclude COP16” – the summit left unfinished in Colombia last year and now scheduled to resume from February 25 to 27 in Rome.

“I’ve led the complex negotiations in progress and I exercise the role of president (of the COP). Therefore, if you so decide, this resignation could be made effective from March 3,” the letter reads.

Muhamad has been one of the most vocal opponents of the recent appointment of former senator Armando Benedetti as Petro’s chief of staff. Benedetti has faced allegations of domestic abuse and corruption, and was previously fired as ambassador to Venezuela by Petro himself.

In a televised session of the council of ministers held last week, Muhamad heavily opposed Benedetti’s appointment and threatened to resign if he remained in the cabinet. “As a feminist and as a woman, I cannot sit at this table of our progressive project with Armando Benedetti,” she told Petro.

According to Oscar Soria, veteran biodiversity campaigner and CEO of think-tank The Common Initiative, the Colombian government is likely to keep Muhamad as COP president, but her resignation could have a negative impact on the talks.

“To have a good result in Rome, proactive and energetic diplomatic work by the presidency was needed in the last months. However, some key issues have not been discussed recently. The internal political crisis (in Colombia) has likely been a great distraction,” Soria told Climate Home.

Since Muhamad’s announcement, several other ministers have also resigned, leading Petro to place all of his cabinet on hold and asking for “protocolary resignations” from every member.

“It’s not clear how much support from the president and ministers (Muhamad) can count on when her counterparts from other countries need to be approached by the Colombian foreign service,” Soria added.

Upcoming nature talks

The COP16 biodiversity negotiations are set to resume later this month, with important decisions coming up on finance for nature and a monitoring framework to track progress on nature restoration. These decisions were left pending after negotiators ran out of time in Cali, Colombia, last year.

One of the most pressing issues is the future of the Global Biodiversity Framework Fund (GBFF), which currently sits under the Global Environment Facility (GEF) until 2030. Some developing countries have called for the creation of a new fund, citing barriers at the GEF to access the funds.

Observers said COP16 could play an important role in the future of biodiversity finance, especially as the new US president, Donald Trump, cuts development funding for climate and nature projects.

“In Rome, countries must give a firm response to the measures and visions promoted by the Trump administration, reaffirming [their] commitment to protecting biodiversity,” said Karla Maas, campaigner at Climate Action Network (CAN) Latin America.

“This implies guaranteeing public resources for conservation instead of depending on the will of private actors or philanthropy,” Maas added.

(Reporting by Sebastian Rodriguez; editing by Megan Rowling)

The post Colombia’s COP16 presidency in suspense as minister resigns appeared first on Climate Home News.

Colombia’s COP16 presidency in suspense as minister resigns

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