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China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

Miliband in China

CLIMATE TRIP: Ed Miliband, the UK’s secretary of state for energy security and net-zero, made a three-day visit to Beijing over 15-17 March, reported the Times. Milband met Chinese vice premier Ding Xuexiang and environment minister Huang Runqiu, according to Singapore-based Chinese newspaper Lianhe Zaobao, which said he also attended the eighth “China-UK energy dialogue” with Wang Hongzhi, head of the National Energy Administration (NEA). (Ding is China’s “top decision maker” on climate policy and was the most senior Chinese politician at COP29.) While in Beijing, Miliband delivered a speech at Tsinghua University on “confronting the climate crisis”, according to one of its official WeChat accounts. The Guardian said the China trip was “the first by a UK energy secretary in eight years”.

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CLIMATE DIALOGUE: Ahead of the trip, Miliband wrote for the Guardian: “Climate action at home without pushing larger countries to do their fair share would not protect current and future generations…That is why this week I’m travelling to Beijing: to urge continued action from China.” During a meeting between Miliband and Ding, “the two sides agreed to enhance cooperation in jointly addressing climate change”, Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported. It said: “China is ready to work with the UK to…deepen cooperation in areas such as financial services, trade and investment, and low-carbon development…Ding added.” The Guardian said Miliband used the trip to announce “a new annual UK-China climate dialogue” and added that Huang is expected to attend the first event in London later this year. Chinese media has not confirmed Huang’s attendance.

DETENTE AND DISAGREEMENT? Separately, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported: “The European Parliament has lifted restrictions on lawmakers meeting some Chinese officials, in a fresh indication of a potential thaw in EU-China ties.” Meanwhile, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi used a speech at the “two sessions” (see below) to call US president Donald Trump “two-faced” over rising trade tensions between the two countries, reported the Financial Times. Wang also pledged to help Africa make progress in the continent’s “green sectors”, said SCMP

‘Two sessions’ wrapped up

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‘EXTREME WEATHER’: China Briefing’s last issue covered the opening of the “two sessions” and the State Council’s work report, which confirmed that the country had missed its 2024 target for carbon intensity, the emissions per unit of GDP. Subsequently, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s top planner, said in its own report that the shortfall was partly due to “rapid growth in the energy consumption in industries…and frequent extreme weather events”. It also announced that China will “continue to increase coal production” and pledged to reduce steel output, as well as to encourage oil refiners to produce more petrochemical products instead of fuels. (Read Carbon Brief’s full coverage of the “two sessions” for more, including a comparison of language used in relation to coal in government work reports over 2021-25.)

‘CUTTING EDGE’: The “new three” – electric vehicles (EVs), lithium-ion battery and solar industries – will continue to be promoted, said the NDRC report. Zheng Shanjie, head of the NDRC, announced that a “national venture capital guidance fund” will be established, with a focus on “cutting-edge areas” including hydrogen and energy storage, according to state-supporting newspaper Global Times.

HUANG’S HIGHLIGHTS: In a brief speech at the political gathering, environment minister Huang said that over the past year his ministry had “promoted the development of the carbon market, resulting in a cumulative decrease of 8.78 percentage points in the country’s carbon emission intensity in the coal-fired power generation sector”, state broadcaster CGTN reported. Huang emphasised the ministry’s “efforts to cultivate and develop new quality productive forces” in “the ecological environment”, added CGTN.

Coal down, low-carbon up

COAL DIP: China’s electricity generation from thermal sources – mainly coal – fell by 5.8% year-on-year in the first two months of 2025, Reuters reported, adding that this was “one of only a handful of times it has declined during that period in more than two decades”. The newswire said the reduction in coal power output came alongside a 1.3% drop in electricity generation overall, with Bloomberg attributing this “rare early-year decline” to “milder winter temperatures”.

‘MAJOR CONTRIBUTION’: In contrast, Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, said on LinkedIn that this 1.3% reduction only referred to “large-scale” generation, citing official statistics. Electricity generation from all sources actually increased by 1.3% in the first two months of the year, he said, with the difference explained by a “major contribution” from small-scale wind and solar. The figures showed that last year’s grid integration issues “have been resolved, at least for now”, Myllyvirta added.

NUCLEAR RISE: The government figures showed that nuclear power output increased by 7.7% year-on-year in January and February, contributing to the reduction in coal generation. Meanwhile, SCMP said Beijing had set an “ambitious target” for nuclear technology of contributing 400bn yuan ($55bn) of economic output by 2026, up from 240bn yuan in 2023. The newspaper added that the government had approved 11 new reactors in 2024, up from 10 each in 2022 and 2023. It noted that while nuclear only accounted for 4.7% of China’s total power supply in 2024, the government has said it will “intensify efforts to support the advancement of nuclear technology”, which “has taken on even greater importance as the country…pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060”.

Power and carbon certificate schemes latest

CLEAN-POWER CERTIFICATES: The NDRC issued a new guiding regulation on promoting “green electricity certificates” (GECs), industry news outlet BJX News reported. GECs allow renewable electricity to be traded on China’s emissions trading scheme (ETS), the country’s mandatory carbon market. They are also linked to compliance with China’s provincial and sectoral regulations requiring minimum shares of demand to be met by renewable sources. The document said there would be a “significant” increase in demand for GECs by 2030, requiring more certificates – which also cover a wider range of low-carbon resources, such as biomass – to be issued quickly. It also urged “key” industries – such as steel, building materials, petrochemicals and data centres – to purchase more GECs, added the outlet.

CARBON CREDITS RESTART: Meanwhile, the first batch of carbon credits “completed registration” under the resumed China Certified Emission Reductions (CCERs) voluntary emissions trading scheme, reported Xinhua. The news agency added that the registered CCERs cover more than 9m tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) and could bring emissions down by 3.5MtCO2e annually in the next 10 years. Financial publication Caixin said that this was the first approval since the CCER scheme was “revived” in January 2024, eight years after being “suspended due to a lack of uptake and regulatory issues”.

Captured

Ranking of key tasks in each government work report during the 14th five-year plan period (2021-2025).
Ranking of key tasks in each government work report during the 14th five-year plan period (2021-2025). Source: Xinhua publications of the government work reports for 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022 and 2021.

The 2025 government report delivered at this year’s “two sessions” lowered the importance of high-quality development in favour of “expanding domestic demand”, Carbon Brief found in its detailed summary of the meeting. The prioritisation of “low-carbon development” and other climate related tasks remained the same. 

Spotlight

Q&A: Will China’s ‘two new’ policy help tackle climate change?

China emphasised the implementation of the “two new” (两新) policy as a means for “boosting [domestic] consumption” at its recent “two sessions” annual political meeting.

President Xi Jinping reportedly “stressed the importance” of a national recycling company as part of the policy in 2024 because it “facilitates green, low-carbon and circular development”.

In this issue, Carbon Brief explains what the policy is, how it works and what its impact will be. A full explainer on the “two new” is available on Carbon Brief’s website.

What is ‘two new’?

The “two new” policy is short for “large-scale equipment upgrades and trade-in of consumer goods”.

The policy was first introduced in 2023 and became well-known after it was reiterated by Xi in early 2024. In March 2024, the policy then became an “action plan”, a document illustrating specific methods for executing a political goal.

Prof Bai Quan, director of energy transition at the Academy of Macroeconomic Research – a research institution under the direct supervision of the State Council – told Carbon Brief in 2024 that there are four aspects of “two new”:

  • Updates to equipment, such as large boilers, turbines, heat pumps and lighting used for manufacturing;
  • Trade-in of consumer goods, including fridges and air conditioners;
  • Recycling of old or high-emission items;
  • Improving standards for product efficiency and emissions, as well as for recycling, “to prevent people from re-purchasing outdated equipment with low energy efficiency”. 

The first three of these “directly promote carbon reduction”, prof Bai said. Under the policy, government subsidies are provided for manufacturers and consumers to trade-in old inefficient goods and purchase new ones. Other financial and tax support is given to recyclers to increase recycling. 

In 2025, the State Council updated the “two new” policy and increased the funds available to consumers and businesses. It also expanded the range of trade-in products and pledged to release a more detailed trade-in standard by the end of the year.

How does ‘two new’ work?

A fundamental mechanism of “two new” is providing funding that enables consumers and businesses to trade-in and upgrade goods, as well as recycling the old equipment.

For example, under the policy, a consumer can trade in an old, inefficient petrol car and receive subsidies to upgrade to a new electric vehicle (EV) instead.

The government report delivered by premier Li Qiang at the “two sessions” said that “ultra-long special treasury bonds totaling 300bn yuan ($41bn) will be issued to support consumer goods trade-in programmes” in 2025.

A more detailed paper in 2024 eased the rules around low-interest loans for equipment upgrades, making it easier for small and medium-sized enterprises to access them.

The policy also allocated around 7.5bn yuan ($1bn) for the “recycling and treatment of waste electrical and electronic products”. This extends beyond the list of trade-in items.

For example, 35m tonnes of waste from decommissioned wind and solar equipment will need to be recycled in China by 2030.

Despite Beijing issuing policies in 2023 and 2024 to encourage the recycling business, a stronger recycling market is needed for “advancing” the “two new”, according to Prof Du Huanzheng, director of the circular economy research institute of Tongji University.

In 2024, a state-owned recycling company was established to support the goals of the “two new” initiative.

Meanwhile, another policy in support of the policy allowed qualified private recyclers to claim for tax deductions more easily.

In 2025, the categories of eligible trade-in goods under “two new” was expanded from eight to 12, including mobile phones and fridges.

The buyer rebates for vehicles, including EVs and petrol cars, were also extended and remained at the same level as in the second half of 2024.

In addition, more and newer types of petrol cars – including cars registered over 2012-14 rather than 2011-13 – were allowed to join the programme.

What is the impact?

Xinhua said that the trade-in scheme boosted sales of cars, with new energy vehicles (NEVs, mainly EVs and plug-in hybrids) accounting for more than 60% of the new vehicles bought under the initiative in 2024.

Meanwhile, products certified with the “highest energy-efficiency level” made up more than 90% of sales by revenue under the home appliance trade-in scheme, added the report.

An analysis by Goldman Sachs said the trade-in subsidies “accelerated” the rising share of NEVs in Chinese car sales. It said the policy would help raise the NEV share from 48% in 2024 to about 60% in 2025.

Subsidies for NEVs under “two new” have amounted to 90bn yuan ($12bn), accounting for about 60% of the total “trade-in money”, according to Goldman Sachs.

However, CREA’s Lauri Myllyvirta told Carbon Brief that even after the 2025 expansion, the policy was a “much more limited measure than the kinds of income transfers that would be needed to substantially boost the role of household consumption in driving economic growth” and “directs household spending in the most energy-intensive direction”.

Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China from market research firm ING, told Carbon Brief that “the programme sounds a little small at first thought – under 1% of total retail sales last year – but it will boost sales beyond the 300bn [yuan] spent”. He added that it could “lead to improved demand for these categories this year”. 

In his 2024 interview with Carbon Brief, Bai called the “two new” a “sign” of the government using policy support to stimulate lower-carbon consumption.

An official release said that the “two new” policy “saved about 28m tonnes of standard coal and reduced CO2 emissions by about 73m tonnes” in 2024. It said the “effect” of supporting the low-carbon transition was “obvious”.  

Watch, read, listen

CARBON CAPTURE: China’s National Business Daily interviewed Zheng Guoguang, former vice minister of the Ministry of Emergency Management, who talked about carbon capture for reaching net-zero.

NORTH VS SOUTH: Dialogue Earth published an article by CREA’s Lauri Myllyvirta comparing the different levels of clean power development in north and south China.

CLIMATE LEADER: In a comment for China Daily, Lin Boqiang, director of the China Institute for Energy Studies at Xiamen University,, suggested that China takes a global leadership role in tackling climate change.

CARBON FOOTPRINT: CGTN’s latest climate podcast talked about how China’s “nationwide carbon footprint management system” works.


10,000

The amount of wind and solar capacity, in gigawatts (GW), that China needs to install to reach carbon neutrality by 2060, new Chinese government-endorsed research covered by Carbon Brief found. China’s wind and solar capacity stood at 1,408GW as of 2024. 


New science

Revealing the synergy between carbon reduction and pollution control in the process of new-type urbanisation: Evidence from China’s five major urban agglomerations

Sustainable Cities and Society

A study found that China’s “new-type urbanisation” – which has a greater focus on sustainable development – “significantly drove the synergy” between carbon reduction and pollution control. The study said that the synergy level between carbon reduction and pollution control increased from 2014 to 2022. Urbanisation also “improved its relationship with carbon reduction and pollution control from the perspective of decoupling”, added the research.

Event triggers and opinion leaders shape climate change discourse on Weibo

Communications Earth & Environment

A study looked at “climate change discourse” in China by analysing 5.3m posts from Weibo, a Chinese social media platform similar to Twitter and Bluesky, over 2012–22. It developed an analytical framework that “addresses key research questions regarding the triggering events, opinion leader networks and framing strategies surrounding climate change topics”. The results showed the “attention” to climate change nearly doubled after March 2018, indicating climate discussions were “strongly driven by specific events”. It also found ​​the public generally holds a “positive view of the country’s efforts in addressing climate change”.

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China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org

The post China Briefing 20 March 2025: Miliband in China; ‘Two new’ promoted; ‘Two sessions’ ended appeared first on Carbon Brief.

China Briefing 20 March 2025: Miliband in China; ‘Two new’ promoted; ‘Two sessions’ ended

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Climate Change

Palestine: Israel’s bombing has left Gaza vulnerable to climate change

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Israel’s bombardment of Gaza during the conflict that broke out in October 2023 has wrecked progress towards adapting the enclave to climate change and left two million Gazans vulnerable to heatwaves, drought and disease, the Palestinian Authority (PA) said in a new climate plan submitted to the United Nations.

Palestine’s third nationally determined contribution (NDC), uploaded to the UN climate body’s website this week, says that while “the aggression on the Gaza Strip did not make the climate worse”, “it removed the housing, water and sanitation systems, health facilities, energy networks, roads and livelihoods through which people absorb a climate they were already struggling with.”

The 91-page document lists the types of infrastructure it says Israel has destroyed and notes how the destruction will worsen the impacts of climate change. It says the bombing of hospitals and rising hunger have make it harder for Gazans to cope with the health impacts of climate-driven heatwaves and waterborne diseases.

On beaches of Gaza and Tel Aviv, two tales of one heatwave

The destruction of water tanks, boreholes and desalination plants, meanwhile, have left Gazans struggling with the effects of water shortages and drought, while mass unemployment reduces people’s ability to afford climate-driven price rises. The erasure of most of the Strip’s homes makes it more difficult for people to avoid the sun’s increasing heat, the NDC said.

Many Gazans are now living in the ruins of collapsed buildings or in makeshift shelters and tents that offer little or no protection from high temperatures.

A displaced Palestinian child fills water containers on July 2, 2026 in Gaza City, Gaza. (Photo by Ahmad Hasaballah/Getty Images)

Palestine’s previous goals to cut emissions and adapt to climate change in Gaza, expressed in its last NDC five years ago, were based on a pre-war baseline that “no longer describes anything that exists”, the NDC says. Progress made since 2021 has now been destroyed, it adds.

Green reconstruction of Gaza

Instead of continuing to aim for these adaptation and emissions-reduction goals, the PA is now calling for the green reconstruction of Gaza. It says buildings should be constructed again in an energy-efficient manner with solar panels and served with modern water, waste and transport systems.

While the PA, controlled by the Fatah political party, continues to claim legitimate control of Gaza, the strip was effectively governed by Fatah’s rival Hamas between 2007 and the recent war. Control is now split between Israel and the political wing of Islamist militant group Hamas, after a US-backed ceasefire took effect in October 2025, although a UN-backed committee plans to take over.

    The United Nations, European Union and World Bank have jointly estimated that Gaza needs $71.4 billion of investment in the next two years to recover and build back. This process should be Palestinian-led, they said in April.

    But US President Donald Trump has said the US should “take over” and “own” Gaza and redevelop it as the “Riviera of the Middle East”. Israel’s right-wing prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that Israel should control the territory with civil administration managed by Palestinians favourable to Israel.

    With occupation, targets conditional

    In the other part of Palestine, the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority carries out some government functions, but ultimate control rests with Israel, which has occupied the West Bank since 1967.

    Because Israel controls planning in most of the West Bank, the NDC argues that the PA cannot pursue all the climate projects it wants. In addition, Israel restricts the movement of PA officials, making data collection difficult, and controls the West Bank’s electricity supply meaning that the PA cannot control whether it comes from dirty or clean sources of energy.

    Given this situation, the NDC says that all of Palestine’s new climate targets are conditional but it will aim to reduce emissions 12.8% below a business-as-usual baseline by 2035 and 17.1% by 2040. If the Israeli occupation ends and Palestine regains full sovereignty over its land and resources, it will aim for reductions of 15.1% and 19.1% by 2035 and 2040 respectively under an “independence pathway”.

    That could allow, for example, for greater electrification and reducing emissions per unit of growth, the document said.

    To achieve the 2035 emissions-reduction target and adapt to the impacts of climate change, the PA says it needs $8.6 billion in total. This funding would be spent on measures like encouraging solar farms and rooftop solar and scaling up solar water heating to cover four-fifths of households. To complement the planned increase in solar power, the authority wants to modernise the electricity grid and install battery storage.

    In the transport sector, it aims to promote the uptake of electric vehicles, develop bus rapid transit corridors and scrap old polluting trucks and buses. In Gaza in particular, it wants to deploy 66 electric buses when the conflict ends.

    A bus rapid transit system in Sao Paulo (Flickr/EMBARQ BRASIL)

    To adapt to climate-driven drought, the NDC includes initiatives to reuse wastewater through treatment plants, build desalination plants in Gaza to remove salt from seawater, and promote irrigation for farmers.

    The new climate plan was prepared by Palestine’s Environment Quality Authority, with support from the United Nations Development Programme and the governments of Britain and Spain.

    The United Nations recognised Palestine’s statehood in 2012 and it joined the UN’s climate convention and signed the Paris climate agreement – which requires countries to submit more ambitious NDCs every five years – in 2016.

    The Israeli foreign ministry did not respond to a request for comment. But in late 2024, then Israeli climate envoy Gideon Behar told Climate Home News that the war and the resulting environmental destruction in Gaza was the fault of Hamas.

    The post Palestine: Israel’s bombing has left Gaza vulnerable to climate change appeared first on Climate Home News.

    Palestine: Israel’s bombing has left Gaza vulnerable to climate change

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    Climate Change

    Analysis: UK solar power hits record high over summer 2026

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    Solar power generation in the UK reached a new record over the summer of 2026, as temperatures across the nation soared, according to new analysis by Carbon Brief.

    Collectively over June, July and August, solar farms and rooftops generated 8.8 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity in the UK*, as shown in the chart below.

    Line chart showing that UK solar generation reached an all-time high during record-hot summer 2026

    Speaking to Carbon Brief, Chris Hewett, chief executive of trade association Solar Energy UK welcomed the new record, adding that it was driven by “clear skies and continued growth in deployment”.

    This surge in generation took place amid the hottest summer on record in the UK, with five heatwaves between May and August.

    Summer 2026 was the sixth sunniest on record, with more than 620 hours of sunshine, according to the Met Office. England and Wales – which experienced the most extreme heat – saw their second-sunniest summers on record.

    June 2026 was the hottest June in England since records began in 1884, according to Met Office data, while Wales and the UK as a whole experienced their second-warmest June.

    It was the driest July for England and Wales since records began in 1836, with some parts of London seeing no rain at all in the month, while Wisley in Surrey had no rain for 62 days.

    In England, temperatures peaked at 38.1C at Kew Gardens in London on 13 August.

    According to the Met Office, this summer’s record mean temperature was made 130 times more likely by climate change.

    Amid these hot and sunny months, solar power generation increased 23% from the same period in 2025. This is double the level of solar generation over the summer of 2021, according to Carbon Brief analysis.

    While solar panels can be affected by periods of extreme heat, the longer hours of daylight and higher levels of irradiation over the summer more than offset any efficiency losses.

    June, July and August all saw solar set new monthly records for solar generation – July saw the highest solar generation in a calendar month ever, with 3.3TWh meeting 15% of overall electricity demand for the month.

    As of the end of August, the total UK solar generation in 2026 stood at 17TWh – 13% higher than the same point in 2025.

    The number of solar farms and rooftop installations has grown substantially in recent years, helping to boost generation. Domestic rooftop solar accounts for around 29% of total capacity.

    In 2025, the UK’s solar capacity reached 21 gigawatts (GW) by the third quarter of the year, according to UK government figures. This is a jump of 3GW, or 18%, year-on-year, as Carbon Brief reported in January.

    (Capacity is the maximum output possible from an electricity generation, whereas generation is what was produced over a certain time period, such as a day, month or year.)

    According to the University of Sheffield, the installed solar capacity is now nearly 24GW.

    This includes nearly 172,000 solar installations that have been fitted across the UK since the start of 2026, according to recent government figures. In July alone, more than 19,800 rooftop solar panels were installed – the equivalent of one installation every two minutes.

    In total, nearly 1.7m households in the UK now have solar panels installed.

    Over 26 heatwave days this summer – periods of at least three days when temperatures exceed the Met Office’s county-level heatwave temperature threshold – UK households with rooftop solar panels avoided an estimated £86.7m in electricity costs, according to analysis by Utility Bidder.

    Talking about the surge in solar generation this summer, Hewett says:

    “[It] not only kept bills down for people with solar and batteries in their homes, but helped keep overall power prices much lower than they would have been if Britain had been relying on more gas generation during the day”.

    Despite the record generation, no new half-hourly solar power output record was set in the summer of 2026. This still stands at 15.2 megawatts (MW) on 23 April 2026.

    * This article refers to the UK throughout, but strictly relates to the island of Great Britain, made up of England, Scotland and Wales. Northern Ireland is part of the separate, all-Ireland electricity system.

    The post Analysis: UK solar power hits record high over summer 2026 appeared first on Carbon Brief.

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    Climate Change

    How this summer’s heat and drought impacted crops in Europe – in six charts

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    Farmers around Europe are dealing with the aftermath of a summer of extreme heat, drought and wildfires that were exacerbated by climate change.

    Human-caused climate change is increasing the severity and likelihood of many extreme weather events around the world, which is increasing volatility for food producers.

    This summer resulted in, for example, shrunken potatoes in the Netherlands, reduced carrot harvests in France, dried-up rice fields in Italy and scorched olive groves in parts of the Mediterranean region.

    Global food prices are currently at their highest level since early 2023 due to “heatwaves and energy price dynamics”, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.

    Other factors such as blocked fertiliser supplies in the Strait of Hormuz and high fuel costs have also played a role in this year’s agricultural outputs.

    In the six charts below, Carbon Brief provides a snapshot of the impact this summer’s extremes are considered to have had on crop production and yields across Europe.

    1. Most EU countries expect to see declines in cereal production this year

    2. Most countries are recording reduced crop yields

    3. Around €2bn worth of cereal losses after June heatwave

    4. UK yields of wheat, barley and oats are all due to drop in 2026

    5. Maize production in France is due to hit a four-decade low

    6. Declines in EU grains since 2025

    Article Contents

    1. Most EU countries expect to see declines in cereal production this year

    Bar chart showing that France is due to see the largest drops in cereal production in the EU in 2026. The bar chart shows that France's cereal production in 2026 has dropped -7.7 Mt of followed by Germany (-3.5 Mt), Poland (-3.2 Mt), Spain (-2.9 Mt), and Hungary (-2.6)
    Changes in cereal production in 26 EU countries between 2025 and 2026. Malta is excluded due to a lack of available data. Source: European Commission.

    France, in particular, will see heavy losses in the amount of cereals – such as wheat, barley and oats – it produces this year, according to European Commission data.

    French cereal production is expected to drop by almost 8 megatonnes (Mt) in 2026, compared to 2025.

    The chart above shows that most European countries, aside from Bulgaria, will also see production losses this year.

    Germany is due to see the second-largest losses in production, dropping by almost 4Mt compared to 2025.

    Prof Til Feike, a cropping systems expert at the Julius Kühn-Institut, says many areas in Germany and Austria, as with other parts of Europe, have been “hit hard by a long-lasting dry period in combination with record-high heatwaves”.

    This has resulted in dry grassland for animals and lower yields of maize, which is a “key fodder crop” for livestock. He tells Carbon Brief:

    “In the long run, farming must adapt better to more extreme weather conditions, not only heat and drought, but also prolonged wet periods. So, there is no one-fits-all solution for climate change adaptation.”

    2. Most countries are recording reduced crop yields

    Heat and a lack of water have “substantially worsened” crop expectations this summer in western and most of central Europe, according to a recent bulletin from the EU Joint Research Centre.

    Yields are expected to be “significantly reduced”, with local crop failures “likely” in areas such as France, southern Germany, northern and central Italy, and Hungary, it added.

    The chart below shows that yields of cereal grains – which, here, refers to the tonnes of a grain grown per hectare of land – are expected to fall in most EU countries in 2026.

    Bar chart showing that Slovakia and Austria are due to see the largest cereal yield declines in 2026. The bar chart shows that both Slovakia and Austria have seen their cereal yields drop -1.3 tonnes per hectare over 2025-26.
    Changes in cereal yields in 26 EU countries between 2025 and 2026. Malta is excluded due to a lack of available data. Source: European Commission.

    Slovakia, Austria and Hungary are expected to see the largest declines in cereal yields, reducing by more than one tonne per hectare in 2026 compared to 2025.

    The recent EU bulletin noted that irrigated crops performed well in Portugal this summer – the country with the largest yield increases. Other crops relying on rainfall showed growing signs of heat stress, it added.

    3. Around €2bn worth of cereal losses after June heatwave

    The record heatwave that hit many parts of Europe in June contributed to an estimated €2-2.3bn in cumulative grain production losses, as shown in the chart below.

    Bar chart showing that the June heatwave in 2026 led to around €2bn in cereal production losses in Europe. The bar chart shows that France is the EU country that lost the most revenue, with an estimated loss of €891 million, followed by Hungary (with an estimated loss of €444 million) and Spain (with an estimated loss of €276)
    Estimates of revenue lost due to changes in production forecasts between June and July 2026. Source: ECIU.

    The intense June heat in western Europe would have been “virtually impossible” just 50 years ago, according to a rapid climate attribution study. It was the region’s hottest June on record.

    The Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) thinktank analysed June and July 2026 grain forecasts from Coceral, a European grain traders association.

    ECIU estimated lost supply by multiplying the change in tonnes of grains between these two months by prices for harvest delivery in 28 European countries.

    Major grain producers France, Germany, Hungary and Spain accounted for 86% of the lost revenue, according to the ECIU.

    Extreme heat is also expected to have a wider economic impact across the continent. Analysis from Triodos Bank found that this summer’s extreme weather could reduce the EU’s gross domestic product (GDP) by around 1% this year, or around €180bn.

    4. UK yields of wheat, barley and oats are all due to drop in 2026

    If current trends continue, the average yields for cereals and oilseeds will result in the UK’s worst harvest since detailed records began in 1984, according to ECIU.

    Line chart showing that UK cereal yields could hit lowest levels since at least 1990 this year.
    Yields of cereals and oilseed rape in the UK over 1990-2026. Source: Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs and Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board.

    Barley yields could fall by 15%, oats by 14% and wheat yields by 6% year-on-year, according to 2026 harvest surveys from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, a non-departmental public body that provides agricultural data to the UK government.

    ECIU said that, even if the situation improves, this year is still expected to be one of the five worst harvests on record. This means that four of the five worst harvests in the UK have occurred in the past decade.

    Consumers will likely see higher prices and/or smaller vegetables in supermarkets as a result, Tim O’Malley, chairman of UK company Nationwide Produce, told BBC News in August.

    Other crops, such as berries, have grown successfully in the extreme heat. But the Guardian noted fears this could dip later this year “as plants become exhausted from heavy cropping during the heatwave”.

    5. Maize production in France is due to hit a four-decade low

    France has been acutely affected by this summer’s extreme weather, with more than 7,300 excess deaths during heatwaves and a record number of weather stations recording temperatures of above 40C.

    The country is the EU’s largest agricultural producer, but heat, drought and wildfires have affected many crops.

    The chart below shows that maize production is set to drop by more than one-third (35%) year-on-year.

    Line chart showing that maize production in France is due to reach lowest levels since 1980
    Maize production in France over 1980-2026. Source: Agreste.

    This could result in France’s lowest maize production since 1980, according to data from Agreste, the country’s agriculture ministry’s statistics service.

    Due to the heat, “record-early” grape harvests have also been recorded in various parts of the nation since mid-July, reported Le Monde. In some cases, this means “smaller, less juicy grapes, which will yield less wine”, explained the newspaper.

    6. Declines in EU grains since 2025

    Chart showing that EU cereal production is set to reduce by 9% in 2026.
    Production of cereal crops in Europe over 1993-2026. The “other” category includes oats, rye, sorghum, millet and buckwheat. Source: European Commission.

    Overall in the EU, data and projections indicate declines in the output of cereal grains this year.

    Cereal production is set to fall by 9% compared to 2025, according to the European Commission.

    Just one year in the past decade – 2024 – recorded lower production levels.

    Maize production is set to be particularly affected, with projections indicating a 13% drop, to 52Mt – the lowest level in the EU since 2007.

    The post How this summer’s heat and drought impacted crops in Europe – in six charts appeared first on Carbon Brief.

    How this summer’s heat and drought impacted crops in Europe – in six charts
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