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China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
New export controls
‘SWEEPING’ CURBS: The Chinese government issued “sweeping export controls on rare earths and related technologies”, the Financial Times reported, with the set of new rules tightening restrictions on exports of rare earths, permanent magnets and batteries and battery components, as well as related processing technologies. Manufacturers will need licences to export any of these products that contain “even trace amounts” of China-sourced materials, it added. The move “underscores how rare earths – vital to high-performance magnets, electric vehicles [EVs], wind turbines and precision weaponry – have become a powerful geopolitical tool”, finance news outlet Caixin reported.
BATTERY BLOCKAGES?: The restrictions on batteries with an energy density higher than 300 watt-hours per kilogram, as well as a variety of battery components, “show China is keen to protect its innovations” and complicate efforts to diversify supply chains, Bloomberg reported. Caixin cited multiple analysts saying the battery threshold “primarily targets high-end nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) batteries used in aviation and defense, rather than lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries common in mass-market EVs”, noting that the “controls focus on ‘next-generation’ batteries [such as solid-state batteries]”. But Cory Combs, associate director at consultancy Trivium China, told Carbon Brief that the controls are cause for “concern”, as they “target nearly all the key components, production tools and associated tech” that newer consumer electronics, including EVs, are expected to be using. There are “open questions” on how this could affect Chinese battery manufacturers’ overseas investments and partnerships, he said, although he expected “Beijing will continue to strongly encourage battery exports and overseas investments in general”.
OPEN QUESTIONS: The restrictions give China leverage in the US-China trade dispute “ahead of a scheduled face-to-face meeting” between presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at the end of October, Reuters said. In response to the restrictions, US treasury secretary Scott Bessent “accused China of trying to hurt the world’s economy”, the Financial Times reported, adding that in contrast, “China has blamed Washington for the escalation”. Economic news outlet Jiemian said that Europe may also be affected by the curbs, as its EV industry has “high demand for premium rare earth grades” – although it added that “specific impacts” may only become visible by early 2026. Combs told Carbon Brief that he does not think China has a “strategic interest in cutting off EU or Asian companies” from clean-energy technologies, given that it already has a competitive advantage in their manufacture. He added that the move could lead to “frictions and delays”, but “shouldn’t affect the broader EV or [wind] turbine industries too much”.
IEA revised China renewables outlook down
REFORM REVISIONS: The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its outlook for China’s wind and solar buildout down by about 5% in its Renewables 2025 report, which the agency attributed to the country’s “shift from fixed tariffs [for wind and solar power] to competitive auctions”, Reuters said. Energy news outlet International Energy Net also covered the report, which “notes that…the financial sustainability of [wind and solar] manufacturers remains a major concern”.
EARLY ACHIEVEMENT: Jeremy Wallace, professor of China studies at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, wrote on LinkedIn that, despite the 5% revision, the IEA’s “main case estimate [for China] has about 2,100 gigawatts (GW) of renewables added from 2026-2030”, which would put the country “way ahead” of its new target for 3,600GW of wind and solar by 2035. Indeed, the IEA report said that China “continues to account for nearly 60% of global renewable capacity growth and is on track to reach [its 2035 target for renewable energy] five years ahead of schedule”.
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RECORD EXPORTS: Meanwhile, thinktank Ember released a report finding that China’s exports of clean-energy technology “hit a record in August, with $20bn in products shipped globally”, Bloomberg reported. Al Jazeera quoted the report saying: “Within China there is a realisation that the old development paradigm centred on fossil fuels has run its course and is not fit for 21st century realities.” State broadcaster CGTN said the findings “confirm China’s role as the primary driver of the transition” towards clean energy.
China issued draft expanding renewable quotas
BEYOND POWER: Energy news outlet BJX News reported that the Chinese government has published new draft rules to expand China’s renewable portfolio standard (RPS) – provincial quotas for consuming renewable electricity – to also cover energy demand outside the power sector. It said the draft rules divide the RPS targets into two categories: minimum renewable electricity consumption targets, covering “all types of renewable power generation”; and minimum non-electricity consumption targets, including “renewable energy applications such as heating and cooling, production of ‘green’ hydrogen, ammonia and alcohol, as well as biofuels”. The move comes as China’s RPS grows from covering power and aluminium to also include the cement, polysilicon and iron and steel sectors, as well as certain types of data centres.
FINANCE PLANS: China also plans to refine how it invests in “energy conservation and carbon reduction”, BJX News said, to better integrate “hard investments” with “soft infrastructure development”. Another BJX News report elaborated that supported projects under this programme include low-carbon projects in sectors such as power, steel, chemicals and building materials. It added that “clean coal” and coal-chemical projects, clean-energy alternatives for “coal-fired boilers and industrial kilns” and “geothermal and biomass” clean heating solutions, would also receive support.
Carbon prices hit a two-year low
CREDIT OVERSUPPLY: Carbon prices in China’s national carbon market reached the “lowest level in more than two years as the nation’s carryover rules triggered a sell-off”, with prices hitting a low of 58.8 yuan ($8.25), according to Bloomberg. It added that “prices are down almost 40% since the start of the year, weighed by a persistent oversupply and lagging demand”.
EV PRESSURES: Meanwhile, EV sales in China “hit an all-time high” in September, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported, citing data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), with a rush in purchases ahead of the expiration of EV tax breaks and consumer subsidies. A total of 826,000 EVs were sold last month, it said, up 29% from the previous year and breaking the previous record set in December 2024. State news agency Xinhua reported that sales of “new-energy vehicles”, a category including EVs, rose 35% year-on-year to 11m from January to September 2025. Bloomberg quoted CPCA secretary general Cui Dongshu saying that car dealerships urgently need financial assistance as overcapacity and intense competition pushes them to “operat[e] at cash flow negative”. Meanwhile, China plans to double EV charging capacity by 2027, “building 28m facilities nationwide”, another SCMP article said.
OVERCAPACITY ORDERS: Finally, the government has announced new measures on governing “disorderly price competition”, BJX News reported, including guiding industry associations to suggest reference costs to help “operators to set reasonable prices” and penalising companies it identifies as repeatedly violating orders. Reuters said that a state-run financial news outlet “reported…relevant authorities may release a notice on strengthening the regulation and control of solar production capacity”, adding that the article in question “did not contain further details”.
Spotlight
Only half of Chinese provinces finalise key ‘Document 136’ renewable rules
Only half of China’s provinces have finalised new rules for pricing wind and solar power, according to Carbon Brief analysis.
Local governments are required to have published final plans to reform the way wind and solar power is priced in their jurisdiction before the end of this year, following the release of “Document 136” (136号文).
Carbon Brief examines China’s progress on developing the new rules. The full article, including an interactive tracker of which provinces have released their plans, is available on Carbon Brief’s website.
Central direction, local rules
In February this year, China’s central government issued a notice on “deepening market-based reform of feed-in tariffs for new energy”, also known as “Document 136”.
The document called on local governments to develop plans for new pricing mechanisms for wind and solar power. A key feature of this will be the “sustainable new-energy pricing mechanism” (新能源可持续发展价格结算机制), in which they only offer a fixed price to a set amount of new wind and solar capacity each year.
Any additional wind and solar projects would need to find buyers for their electricity on the open market.
The move is part of wider efforts to shift China’s giant electricity system towards more market-based operation.
When the policy was first released, analysts expected the rules and subsequent low auction prices to have a chilling effect on wind and solar in the short term.
But some believe that “Document 136” may strengthen China’s clean-energy industries in the long term, by forcing companies to become more innovative and competitive.
New territory
So far, Carbon Brief finds, only 18 provinces have issued finalised plans. Collectively, these provinces account for 61% of China’s energy-related emissions.
Another 10, representing 31% of emissions, have published draft plans, while Jiangsu, Tianjin and Tibet – the final 8% – have yet to publish anything.
A few provinces published finalised rules in early June, including renewable-power heavyweights Shandong and Inner Mongolia.
In a nationwide conference call at the end of August, National Energy Administration officials urged provinces to “promptly promote” concrete plans.
Eleven provinces have published finalised rules since then, with a further eight publishing draft rules, according to Carbon Brief calculations.
The delay can be attributed to the fact that local policymakers are trying to establish a completely new system of pricing power from scratch, said David Fishman, principal at energy consultancy the Lantau Group.
He told Carbon Brief that “fairly meaningful differences” can be found between the final version and earlier drafts for some provinces, indicating a high level of debate.
In September, Shandong province became the first to hold auctions for solar and wind power under the new rules.
While prices secured by the wind industry are seen as high enough to be relatively acceptable to project developers, the solar price is below the level thought to be needed to finance such developments. As such, it could “discourage” further solar investment in the province, Reuters reported.
Future additions
Analysts disagree about what impact the “Document 136” policy will have on the pace of China’s clean-energy additions.
Dr Muyi Yang, senior energy analyst for Asia at thinktank Ember, told Carbon Brief that he does not see the pricing reforms as a “signal of a structural slowdown in clean capacity [additions]”.
But Fishman noted that the pricing reforms could make it “challenging” for China to hit Xi’s new 2035 target.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) shaved 5% – or 129 gigawatts (GW) – off its outlook for China’s wind and solar growth by 2030, which it attributed to the pricing reforms.
Nevertheless, it added, China is still projected to add “nearly 2,660GW” of new renewable capacity between 2025 and 2030, reaching its 2035 wind and solar target “five years ahead of schedule”.
Watch, read, listen
AFRICAN ENERGY: The China Global South Project hosted a discussion on China’s role in shaping Africa’s energy landscape and how African governments are responding.
GENDER LENS: The Climate Watch podcast spoke with Wang Binbin, associate research professor at Peking University’s Institute for Carbon Neutrality, on intersections between climate action and gender in China.
LEADING TOGETHER?: Economic policy thinktank Bruegel published an analysis arguing that broader EU-China tensions “should not be allowed to derail joint work to cut emissions”.
ARCTIC SHIPPING: CNN examined how melting polar sea ice is “altering the map” in a way that could bring “big economic and geopolitical rewards” for China’s plans to establish shipping routes through the Arctic.
218 billion yuan
Or $30.5bn, the value of economic losses caused by “natural disasters” in the first three quarters of 2025, Jiemian reported, in coverage of a press conference by the Ministry of Emergency Management (MEM). These disasters, which included “intense” rainfall, heat and typhoons, caused 742 people to be reported dead or missing, it added. Climate change was not mentioned during the press conference.
New science
Future warming exacerbates heatwave-ozone compound extremes in China
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Human exposure due to “heatwave-ozone compound events” will double across by the middle of the century under “high-emissions scenario”, causing an additional 61,600 deaths nationwide, according to new research. The authors used climate models to estimate excess deaths due to heatwave-ozone compound extremes from climate change under a range of future emissions scenarios. They projected that the number of ozone pollution events in China will grow by 58% by the middle of the century, “half of which are also heatwave days”.
Nature Communications
A new study on electric vehicle charging stations found that, without policy regulation, “large-scale deployment of ultra-fast charging stations with energy storage could raise peak loads by over 70-85% by 2030 and multiply them by up to 7.5 times by 2050”. The authors used real-world charging data from a number of Chinese cities to develop simulations of various scenarios. They found that “deploying 2,000 ultra-fast charging stations in a city may increase the peak-to-valley differences of the public charging load by up to 32% daily relative to baseline cases”.
China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org
The post China Briefing 16 October 2025: New export controls; IEA China projections; Provincial ‘Doc 136’ progress appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Greenhouse Gases
DeBriefed 27 February 2026: Trump’s fossil-fuel talk | Modi-Lula rare-earth pact | Is there a UK ‘greenlash’?
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Absolute State of the Union
‘DRILL, BABY’: US president Donald Trump “doubled down on his ‘drill, baby, drill’ agenda” in his State of the Union (SOTU) address, said the Los Angeles Times. He “tout[ed] his support of the fossil-fuel industry and renew[ed] his focus on electricity affordability”, reported the Financial Times. Trump also attacked the “green new scam”, noted Carbon Brief’s SOTU tracker.
COAL REPRIEVE: Earlier in the week, the Trump administration had watered down limits on mercury pollution from coal-fired power plants, reported the Financial Times. It remains “unclear” if this will be enough to prevent the decline of coal power, said Bloomberg, in the face of lower-cost gas and renewables. Reuters noted that US coal plants are “ageing”.
OIL STAY: The US Supreme Court agreed to hear arguments brought by the oil industry in a “major lawsuit”, reported the New York Times. The newspaper said the firms are attempting to head off dozens of other lawsuits at state level, relating to their role in global warming.
SHIP-SHILLING: The Trump administration is working to “kill” a global carbon levy on shipping “permanently”, reported Politico, after succeeding in delaying the measure late last year. The Guardian said US “bullying” could be “paying off”, after Panama signalled it was reversing its support for the levy in a proposal submitted to the UN shipping body.
Around the world
- RARE EARTHS: The governments of Brazil and India signed a deal on rare earths, said the Times of India, as well as agreeing to collaborate on renewable energy.
- HEAT ROLLBACK: German homes will be allowed to continue installing gas and oil heating, under watered-down government plans covered by Clean Energy Wire.
- BRAZIL FLOODS: At least 53 people died in floods in the state of Minas Gerais, after some areas saw 170mm of rain in a few hours, reported CNN Brasil.
- ITALY’S ATTACK: Italy is calling for the EU to “suspend” its emissions trading system (ETS) ahead of a review later this year, said Politico.
- COOKSTOVE CREDITS: The first-ever carbon credits under the Paris Agreement have been issued to a cookstove project in Myanmar, said Climate Home News.
- SAUDI SOLAR: Turkey has signed a “major” solar deal that will see Saudi firm ACWA building 2 gigawatts in the country, according to Agence France-Presse.
$467 billion
The profits made by five major oil firms since prices spiked following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine four years ago, according to a report by Global Witness covered by BusinessGreen.
Latest climate research
- Claims about the “fingerprint” of human-caused climate change, made in a recent US Department of Energy report, are “factually incorrect” | AGU Advances
- Large lakes in the Congo Basin are releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere from “immense ancient stores” | Nature Geoscience
- Shared Socioeconomic Pathways – scenarios used regularly in climate modelling – underrepresent “narratives explicitly centring on democratic principles such as participation, accountability and justice” | npj Climate Action
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
The constituency of Richard Tice MP, the climate-sceptic deputy leader of Reform UK, is the second-largest recipient of flood defence spending in England, according to new Carbon Brief analysis. Overall, the funding is disproportionately targeted at coastal and urban areas, many of which have Conservative or Liberal Democrat MPs.
Spotlight
Is there really a UK ‘greenlash’?
This week, after a historic Green Party byelection win, Carbon Brief looks at whether there really is a “greenlash” against climate policy in the UK.
Over the past year, the UK’s political consensus on climate change has been shattered.
Yet despite a sharp turn against climate action among right-wing politicians and right-leaning media outlets, UK public support for climate action remains strong.
Prof Federica Genovese, who studies climate politics at the University of Oxford, told Carbon Brief:
“The current ‘war’ on green policy is mostly driven by media and political elites, not by the public.”
Indeed, there is still a greater than two-to-one majority among the UK public in favour of the country’s legally binding target to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, as shown below.
Steve Akehurst, director of public-opinion research initiative Persuasion UK, also noted the growing divide between the public and “elites”. He told Carbon Brief:
“The biggest movement is, without doubt, in media and elite opinion. There is a bit more polarisation and opposition [to climate action] among voters, but it’s typically no more than 20-25% and mostly confined within core Reform voters.”
Conservative gear shift
For decades, the UK had enjoyed strong, cross-party political support for climate action.
Lord Deben, the Conservative peer and former chair of the Climate Change Committee, told Carbon Brief that the UK’s landmark 2008 Climate Change Act had been born of this cross-party consensus, saying “all parties supported it”.
Since their landslide loss at the 2024 election, however, the Conservatives have turned against the UK’s target of net-zero emissions by 2050, which they legislated for in 2019.
Curiously, while opposition to net-zero has surged among Conservative MPs, there is majority support for the target among those that plan to vote for the party, as shown below.
Dr Adam Corner, advisor to the Climate Barometer initiative that tracks public opinion on climate change, told Carbon Brief that those who currently plan to vote Reform are the only segment who “tend to be more opposed to net-zero goals”. He said:
“Despite the rise in hostile media coverage and the collapse of the political consensus, we find that public support for the net-zero by 2050 target is plateauing – not plummeting.”
Reform, which rejects the scientific evidence on global warming and campaigns against net-zero, has been leading the polls for a year. (However, it was comfortably beaten by the Greens in yesterday’s Gorton and Denton byelection.)
Corner acknowledged that “some of the anti-net zero noise…[is] showing up in our data”, adding:
“We see rising concerns about the near-term costs of policies and an uptick in people [falsely] attributing high energy bills to climate initiatives.”
But Akehurst said that, rather than a big fall in public support, there had been a drop in the “salience” of climate action:
“So many other issues [are] competing for their attention.”
UK newspapers published more editorials opposing climate action than supporting it for the first time on record in 2025, according to Carbon Brief analysis.
Global ‘greenlash’?
All of this sits against a challenging global backdrop, in which US president Donald Trump has been repeating climate-sceptic talking points and rolling back related policy.
At the same time, prominent figures have been calling for a change in climate strategy, sold variously as a “reset”, a “pivot”, as “realism”, or as “pragmatism”.
Genovese said that “far-right leaders have succeeded in the past 10 years in capturing net-zero as a poster child of things they are ‘fighting against’”.
She added that “much of this is fodder for conservative media and this whole ecosystem is essentially driving what we call the ‘greenlash’”.
Corner said the “disconnect” between elite views and the wider public “can create problems” – for example, “MPs consistently underestimate support for renewables”. He added:
“There is clearly a risk that the public starts to disengage too, if not enough positive voices are countering the negative ones.”
Watch, read, listen
TRUMP’S ‘PETROSTATE’: The US is becoming a “petrostate” that will be “sicker and poorer”, wrote Financial Times associate editor Rana Forohaar.
RHETORIC VS REALITY: Despite a “political mood [that] has darkened”, there is “more green stuff being installed than ever”, said New York Times columnist David Wallace-Wells.
CHINA’S ‘REVOLUTION’: The BBC’s Climate Question podcast reported from China on the “green energy revolution” taking place in the country.
Coming up
- 2-6 March: UN Food and Agriculture Organization regional conference for Latin America and Caribbean, Brasília
- 3 March: UK spring statement
- 4-11 March: China’s “two sessions”
- 5 March: Nepal elections
Pick of the jobs
- The Guardian, senior reporter, climate justice | Salary: $123,000-$135,000. Location: New York or Washington DC
- China-Global South Project, non-resident fellow, climate change | Salary: Up to $1,000 a month. Location: Remote
- University of East Anglia, PhD in mobilising community-based climate action through co-designed sports and wellbeing interventions | Salary: Stipend (unknown amount). Location: Norwich, UK
- TABLE and the University of São Paulo, Brazil, postdoctoral researcher in food system narratives | Salary: Unknown. Location: Pirassununga, Brazil
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 27 February 2026: Trump’s fossil-fuel talk | Modi-Lula rare-earth pact | Is there a UK ‘greenlash’? appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Greenhouse Gases
Analysis: Constituency of Reform’s climate-sceptic Richard Tice gets £55m flood funding
The Lincolnshire constituency held by Richard Tice, the climate-sceptic deputy leader of the hard-right Reform party, has been pledged at least £55m in government funding for flood defences since 2024.
This investment in Boston and Skegness is the second-largest sum for a single constituency from a £1.4bn flood-defence fund for England, Carbon Brief analysis shows.
Flooding is becoming more likely and more extreme in the UK due to climate change.
Yet, for years, governments have failed to spend enough on flood defences to protect people, properties and infrastructure.
The £1.4bn fund is part of the current Labour government’s wider pledge to invest a “record” £7.9bn over a decade on protecting hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses from flooding.
As MP for one of England’s most flood-prone regions, Tice has called for more investment in flood defences, stating that “we cannot afford to ‘surrender the fens’ to the sea”.
He is also one of Reform’s most vocal opponents of climate action and what he calls “net stupid zero”. He denies the scientific consensus on climate change and has claimed, falsely and without evidence, that scientists are “lying”.
Flood defences
Last year, the government said it would invest £2.65bn on flood and coastal erosion risk management (FCERM) schemes in England between April 2024 and March 2026.
This money was intended to protect 66,500 properties from flooding. It is part of a decade-long Labour government plan to spend more than £7.9bn on flood defences.
There has been a consistent shortfall in maintaining England’s flood defences, with the Environment Agency expecting to protect fewer properties by 2027 than it had initially planned.
The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has attributed this to rising costs, backlogs from previous governments and a lack of capacity. It also points to the strain from “more frequent and severe” weather events, such as storms in recent years that have been amplified by climate change.
However, the CCC also said last year that, if the 2024-26 spending programme is delivered, it would be “slightly closer to the track” of the Environment Agency targets out to 2027.
The government has released constituency-level data on which schemes in England it plans to fund, covering £1.4bn of the 2024-26 investment. The other half of the FCERM spending covers additional measures, from repairing existing defences to advising local authorities.
The map below shows the distribution of spending on FCERM schemes in England over the past two years, highlighting the constituency of Richard Tice.
By far the largest sum of money – £85.6m in total – has been committed to a tidal barrier and various other defences in the Somerset constituency of Bridgwater, the seat of Conservative MP Ashley Fox.
Over the first months of 2026, the south-west region has faced significant flooding and Fox has called for more support from the government, citing “climate patterns shifting and rainfall intensifying”.
He has also backed his party’s position that “the 2050 net-zero target is impossible” and called for more fossil-fuel extraction in the North Sea.
Tice’s east-coast constituency of Boston and Skegness, which is highly vulnerable to flooding from both rivers and the sea, is set to receive £55m. Among the supported projects are beach defences from Saltfleet to Gibraltar Point and upgrades to pumping stations.
Overall, Boston and Skegness has the second-largest portion of flood-defence funding, as the chart below shows. Constituencies with Conservative and Liberal Democrat MPs occupied the other top positions.
Overall, despite Labour MPs occupying 347 out of England’s 543 constituencies – nearly two-thirds of the total – more than half of the flood-defence funding was distributed to constituencies with non-Labour MPs. This reflects the flood risk in coastal and rural areas that are not traditional Labour strongholds.
Reform funding
While Reform has just eight MPs, representing 1% of the population, its constituencies have been assigned 4% of the flood-defence funding for England.
Nearly all of this money was for Tice’s constituency, although party leader Nigel Farage’s coastal Clacton seat in Kent received £2m.
Reform UK is committed to “scrapping net-zero” and its leadership has expressed firmly climate-sceptic views.
Much has been made of the disconnect between the party’s climate policies and the threat climate change poses to its voters. Various analyses have shown the flood risk in Reform-dominated areas, particularly Lincolnshire.
Tice has rejected climate science, advocated for fossil-fuel production and criticised Environment Agency flood-defence activities. Yet, he has also called for more investment in flood defences, stating that “we cannot afford to ‘surrender the fens’ to the sea”.
This may reflect Tice’s broader approach to climate change. In a 2024 interview with LBC, he said:
“Where you’ve got concerns about sea level defences and sea level rise, guess what? A bit of steel, a bit of cement, some aggregate…and you build some concrete sea level defences. That’s how you deal with rising sea levels.”
While climate adaptation is viewed as vital in a warming world, there are limits on how much societies can adapt and adaptation costs will continue to increase as emissions rise.
The post Analysis: Constituency of Reform’s climate-sceptic Richard Tice gets £55m flood funding appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Analysis: Constituency of Reform’s climate-sceptic Richard Tice gets £55m flood funding
Greenhouse Gases
Cropped 25 February 2026: Food inflation strikes | El Niño looms | Biodiversity talks stagnate
We handpick and explain the most important stories at the intersection of climate, land, food and nature over the past fortnight.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cropped email newsletter.
Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
Food inflation on the rise
DELUGE STRIKES FOOD: Extreme rainfall and flooding across the Mediterranean and north Africa has “battered the winter growing regions that feed Europe…threatening food price rises”, reported the Financial Times. Western France has “endured more than 36 days of continuous rain”, while farmers’ associations in Spain’s Andalusia estimate that “20% of all production has been lost”, it added. Policy expert David Barmes told the paper that the “latest storms were part of a wider pattern of climate shocks feeding into food price inflation”.
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NO BEEF: The UK’s beef farmers, meanwhile, “face a double blow” from climate change as “relentless rain forces them to keep cows indoors”, while last summer’s drought hit hay supplies, said another Financial Times article. At the same time, indoor growers in south England described a 60% increase in electricity standing charges as a “ticking timebomb” that could “force them to raise their prices or stop production, which will further fuel food price inflation”, wrote the Guardian.
‘TINDERBOX’ AND TARIFFS: A study, covered by the Guardian, warned that major extreme weather and other “shocks” could “spark social unrest and even food riots in the UK”. Experts cited “chronic” vulnerabilities, including climate change, low incomes, poor farming policy and “fragile” supply chains that have made the UK’s food system a “tinderbox”. A New York Times explainer noted that while trade could once guard against food supply shocks, barriers such as tariffs and export controls – which are being “increasingly” used by politicians – “can shut off that safety valve”.
El Niño looms
NEW ENSO INDEX: Researchers have developed a new index for calculating El Niño, the large-scale climate pattern that influences global weather and causes “billions in damages by bringing floods to some regions and drought to others”, reported CNN. It added that climate change is making it more difficult for scientists to observe El Niño patterns by warming up the entire ocean. The outlet said that with the new metric, “scientists can now see it earlier and our long-range weather forecasts will be improved for it.”
WARMING WARNING: Meanwhile, the US Climate Prediction Center announced that there is a 60% chance of the current La Niña conditions shifting towards a neutral state over the next few months, with an El Niño likely to follow in late spring, according to Reuters. The Vibes, a Malaysian news outlet, quoted a climate scientist saying: “If the El Niño does materialise, it could possibly push 2026 or 2027 as the warmest year on record, replacing 2024.”
CROP IMPACTS: Reuters noted that neutral conditions lead to “more stable weather and potentially better crop yields”. However, the newswire added, an El Niño state would mean “worsening drought conditions and issues for the next growing season” to Australia. El Niño also “typically brings a poor south-west monsoon to India, including droughts”, reported the Hindu’s Business Line. A 2024 guest post for Carbon Brief explained that El Niño is linked to crop failure in south-eastern Africa and south-east Asia.
News and views
- DAM-AG-ES: Several South Korean farmers filed a lawsuit against the country’s state-owned utility company, “seek[ing] financial compensation for climate-related agricultural damages”, reported United Press International. Meanwhile, a national climate change assessment for the Philippines found that the country “lost up to $219bn in agricultural damages from typhoons, floods and droughts” over 2000-10, according to Eco-Business.
- SCORCHED GRASS: South Africa’s Western Cape province is experiencing “one of the worst droughts in living memory”, which is “scorching grass and killing livestock”, said Reuters. The newswire wrote: “In 2015, a drought almost dried up the taps in the city; farmers say this one has been even more brutal than a decade ago.”
- NOUVELLE VEG: New guidelines published under France’s national food, nutrition and climate strategy “urged” citizens to “limit” their meat consumption, reported Euronews. The delayed strategy comes a month after the US government “upended decades of recommendations by touting consumption of red meat and full-fat dairy”, it noted.
- COURTING DISASTER: India’s top green court accepted the findings of a committee that “found no flaws” in greenlighting the Great Nicobar project that “will lead to the felling of a million trees” and translocating corals, reported Mongabay. The court found “no good ground to interfere”, despite “threats to a globally unique biodiversity hotspot” and Indigenous tribes at risk of displacement by the project, wrote Frontline.
- FISH FALLING: A new study found that fish biomass is “falling by 7.2% from as little as 0.1C of warming per decade”, noted the Guardian. While experts also pointed to the role of overfishing in marine life loss, marine ecologist and study lead author Dr Shahar Chaikin told the outlet: “Our research proves exactly what that biological cost [of warming] looks like underwater.”
- TOO HOT FOR COFFEE: According to new analysis by Climate Central, countries where coffee beans are grown “are becoming too hot to cultivate them”, reported the Guardian. The world’s top five coffee-growing countries faced “57 additional days of coffee-harming heat” annually because of climate change, it added.
Spotlight
Nature talks inch forward
This week, Carbon Brief covers the latest round of negotiations under the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), which occurred in Rome over 16-19 February.
The penultimate set of biodiversity negotiations before October’s Conference of the Parties ended in Rome last week, leaving plenty of unfinished business.
The CBD’s subsidiary body on implementation (SBI) met in the Italian capital for four days to discuss a range of issues, including biodiversity finance and reviewing progress towards the nature targets agreed under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF).
However, many of the major sticking points – particularly around finance – will have to wait until later this summer, leaving some observers worried about the capacity for delegates to get through a packed agenda at COP17.
The SBI, along with the subsidiary body on scientific, technical and technological advice (SBSTTA) will both meet in Nairobi, Kenya, later this summer for a final round of talks before COP17 kicks off in Yerevan, Armenia, on 19 October.
Money talks
Finance for nature has long been a sticking point at negotiations under the CBD.
Discussions on a new fund for biodiversity derailed biodiversity talks in Cali, Colombia, in autumn 2024, requiring resumed talks a few months later.
Despite this, finance was barely on the agenda at the SBI meetings in Rome. Delegates discussed three studies on the relationship between debt sustainability and implementation of nature plans, but the more substantive talks are set to take place at the next SBI meeting in Nairobi.
Several parties “highlighted concerns with the imbalance of work” on finance between these SBI talks and the next ones, reported Earth Negotiations Bulletin (ENB).
Lim Li Ching, senior researcher at Third World Network, noted that tensions around finance permeated every aspect of the talks. She told Carbon Brief:
“If you’re talking about the gender plan of action – if there’s little or no financial resources provided to actually put it into practice and implement it, then it’s [just] paper, right? Same with the reporting requirements and obligations.”
Monitoring and reporting
Closely linked to the issue of finance is the obligations of parties to report on their progress towards the goals and targets of the GBF.
Parties do so through the submission of national reports.
Several parties at the talks pointed to a lack of timely funding for driving delays in their reporting, according to ENB.
A note released by the CBD Secretariat in December said that no parties had submitted their national reports yet; by the time of the SBI meetings, only the EU had. It further noted that just 58 parties had submitted their national biodiversity plans, which were initially meant to be published by COP16, in October 2024.
Linda Krueger, director of biodiversity and infrastructure policy at the environmental not-for-profit Nature Conservancy, told Carbon Brief that despite the sparse submissions, parties are “very focused on the national report preparation”. She added:
“Everybody wants to be able to show that we’re on the path and that there still is a pathway to getting to 2030 that’s positive and largely in the right direction.”
Watch, read, listen
NET LOSS: Nigeria’s marine life is being “threatened” by “ghost gear” – nets and other fishing equipment discarded in the ocean – said Dialogue Earth.
COMEBACK CAUSALITY: A Vox long-read looked at whether Costa Rica’s “payments for ecosystem services” programme helped the country turn a corner on deforestation.
HOMEGROWN GOALS: A Straits Times podcast discussed whether import-dependent Singapore can afford to shelve its goal to produce 30% of its food locally by 2030.
‘RUSTING’ RIVERS: The Financial Times took a closer look at a “strange new force blighting the [Arctic] landscape”: rivers turning rust-orange due to global warming.
New science
- Lakes in the Congo Basin’s peatlands are releasing carbon that is thousands of years old | Nature Geoscience
- Natural non-forest ecosystems – such as grasslands and marshlands – were converted for agriculture at four times the rate of land with tree cover between 2005 and 2020 | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Around one-quarter of global tree-cover loss over 2001-22 was driven by cropland expansion, pastures and forest plantations for commodity production | Nature Food
In the diary
- 2-6 March: UN Food and Agriculture Organization regional conference for Latin America and Caribbean | Brasília
- 5 March: Nepal general elections
- 9-20 March: First part of the thirty-first session of the International Seabed Authority (ISA) | Kingston, Jamaica
Cropped is researched and written by Dr Giuliana Viglione, Aruna Chandrasekhar, Daisy Dunne, Orla Dwyer and Yanine Quiroz.
Please send tips and feedback to cropped@carbonbrief.org
The post Cropped 25 February 2026: Food inflation strikes | El Niño looms | Biodiversity talks stagnate appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Cropped 25 February 2026: Food inflation strikes | El Niño looms | Biodiversity talks stagnate
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