Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.
Carbon Brief handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
US-China climate deal paves way for Xi-Biden meeting and COP28
SUNNYLANDS STATEMENT: Following talks between US and Chinese climate envoys John Kerry and Xie Zhenhua, the two nations released statements “to jointly tackle global warming by ramping up…renewable energy with the goal of displacing fossil fuels”, the New York Times reported. Both countries pledged to “pursue efforts to triple renewable energy capacity globally by 2030”, a key goal in COP28 negotiations, it added. The statement backed the “success of COP28”, which Reuters said was “crucial” to coming to a consensus in Dubai. However, while the statement supported a broad political outcome from the “global stocktake” at COP28, there was no agreed language on fossil fuel phaseout, noted Carbon Brief’s Simon Evans on Twitter. The BBC quoted Bernice Lee, distinguished fellow at Chatham House, as saying that it had likely “proven to be too difficult to find the form of language that works for both” on fossil fuels. Similarly, while there were commitments in the statement to hold policy dialogues on energy efficiency, doubling the rate of efficiency improvements by 2030 was not mentioned.
EMISSIONS PEAKING: The two countries “expect meaningful cuts to be made to power sector emissions before 2030”, Bloomberg reported, quoting Joanna Lewis, an expert in international policy at Georgetown University, as saying this implies “a reduction in emissions from China’s coal plants very soon”. (This aligns with recent analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) for Carbon Brief, see below.) However, on Twitter, senior Politico climate correspondent Karl Mathiesen spotted a slight difference between the readouts – in the US version, power sector emissions cuts are tied to “this critical decade of the 2020s”, whereas in the Chinese readout, reductions are not linked to any date. Reductions will likely be driven in part by carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), with Chinese energy outlet BJX News reporting that “the two countries aim to promote at least five large-scale [CCUS] cooperation projects in industry and energy…by 2030 in each country”.
‘RESTARTING’ COOPERATION: Kerry and Xie’s meeting was followed by a meeting between presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, at which the two leaders discussed maintaining “high-level communications” and cooperating “on trade, agriculture, climate change and artificial intelligence”, Reuters said. Le Monde reported that the US and China will restart bilateral energy dialogues and establish working groups to cover key areas of concern. US treasury secretary Janet Yellen and Chinese vice premier He Lifeng also agreed to improve climate change and global debt relief cooperation in earlier talks, the South China Morning Post reported.
‘Structural decline’ in carbon emissions expected from 2024
2024 DECLINE: In analysis for Carbon Brief, Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at CREA, estimated that China’s carbon emissions “could peak this year before falling into a structural decline” due to “a historic expansion of the country’s low-carbon energy sources”, reported the Guardian. Covering the analysis, Chinese energy news site IN-EN.com said rapid growth in power generation from low-carbon energy sources, a consequent decline in coal’s share of energy consumption and China’s real estate sector downturn “lays the groundwork” for declining emissions. Myllyvirta noted that solar energy saw the “most significant increases”, with 210 gigawatts (GW) of solar power set to be installed this year, the news platform Guancha reported. These record additions are “all but guaranteed to push China’s fossil-fuel electricity generation and CO2 emissions into decline in 2024”, Business Green said in its coverage. Myllyvirta spoke on state broadcaster CGTN to discuss the findings, which were also reported by CNN, Reuters, Bloomberg, Global Times and South China Morning Post.
COAL SPOILER? In a parallel piece in Foreign Policy, Myllyvirta and his co-author Byford Tsang, senior policy advisor at climate thinktank E3G, wrote under the headline: “China pledged to ‘strictly control’ coal. The opposite happened.” Yet Myllyvirta also noted in his analysis for Carbon Brief that a surge in China’s investment in manufacturing capacity for low-carbon technologies is creating an increasingly important interest group in the country, which could affect its approach to domestic and international climate politics. This is “setting the scene for a showdown between the country’s traditional [coal] and newly emerging interest groups”, Agence France-Presse noted in its coverage.
OVERSEAS FREEZE: Meanwhile, China’s two development banks did not make any new energy sector loan commitments in 2022 for “the second year in a row”, according to a new policy brief by the Boston University Global Development Policy Center. In an article for the China Global South Project, co-author Cecilia Springer wrote that this was driven by “ongoing domestic economic woes” and “heightened debt distress in borrowing nations”.
China compensates coal power plants for spare capacity
CAPACITY COMPENSATION: China will give “guaranteed payments” to coal power producers under a new coal capacity compensation mechanism effective 1 January 2024, the country’s top economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), announced in a notice released on Friday, Reuters reported. It added that the “widely-anticipated” move aims to ensure the financial viability of “seldom-utilised, backup” coal power and counter challenges with the variability of renewable energy. The mechanism will allow coal power plants to recover their fixed costs through a capacity tariff set at either 30% or 50% of 330 yuan per kilowatt per year through 2025, depending on their location, reported energy news website BJX News. From 2026, provinces will raise the tariff to “no less than 50%” of the 330 yuan benchmark. A representative from the state-owned China Energy Investment Group wrote in power sector outlet Dianlian News that the policy will adjust the role of coal-fired power units in the power system from “being primarily quantity providers to becoming capacity providers”.
REFORM LAG? Economic news outlet Jiemian quoted the NDRC as saying the policy will have a “positive impact on the electricity costs for end-users in the short and long term”. However, the mechanism has major implications for market reforms, Anders Hove, a senior research fellow at Oxford Institute for Energy Studies told Carbon Brief. “The segregation of long-term contracts, spot markets and ancillary services markets already hinders the ability of market prices to convey investment signals,” he said. While the initial policy on a national electricity market design had suggested the possibility of a market-based capacity mechanism, China ultimately chose a flat capacity payment made only to coal, he added. David Fishman, a senior manager at energy consultancy the Lantau Group, posted on Twitter that it “could distort market signals, which would ordinarily force expensive or inefficient generators out of the market”. Still, Reuters quoted Fishman saying: “It adds a lot of flexibility to the grid system and should allow more intermittent generation (like wind or solar) to enter the generation mix without compromising grid stability or energy security.”
Spotlight
What does China’s new methane plan mean for its climate goals?
In November, China published its long-awaited plan to reduce methane emissions. Carbon Brief explores how effective the plan may be for the world’s largest emitter of methane.
What does the plan say?
The plan described China’s approach as to “control methane emissions in a scientific, rational and orderly manner”, with a specific focus on the energy, agriculture and waste sectors.
It included 20 “key tasks” in emissions monitoring, technological innovation, development of policy frameworks, global cooperation and other areas.
During the 15th five year plan period (2026-2030), monitoring and accounting of methane emissions will be “significantly enhanced”, it added. Methane utilisation, emissions control technologies and policy frameworks will be “effectively improved”.
Other notable pledges included that by 2030 oil and gas producers will “strive” to “gradually” eliminate flaring, and utilisation of coal mine methane will reach 6bn cubic metres annually.
(This “corresponds to about 10%” of the coal mining sector’s total methane emissions, said Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).)
Where do methane emissions come from in China?
China is responsible for 10% of all human-caused methane emissions, with two estimates in 2021 placing its annual output at 58m tonnes (Mt) and 65Mt respectively, equivalent to 1.7-1.9bn tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent.
Around 40% of China’s methane emissions are gas that escapes during the mining of coal, according to the Innovative Green Development Program (iGDP), a Chinese thinktank. Another 42% is from agriculture, including livestock and rice cultivation, it said.
Coal mine methane emissions are particularly challenging to detect, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), as they are “diffuse”. It added that abandoned mines, which could contribute “almost one fifth” of global methane emissions, cannot be included in calculations as “reliable data” is often unavailable.
Climate Home reported, however, that according to Global Energy Monitor (GEM) research, “the real figure for coal mine methane is almost double what the government claims”. Shanxi province could emit as much methane from its coal mines as the rest of the world combined, according to GEM.
Why is tackling methane important?
Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, with around 30 times the warming power of carbon dioxide 100 years after it is emitted. It is responsible for around 30% of the rise in global temperatures since the industrial revolution.
Cutting methane by 30% by 2030 – the target of the global methane pledge – is the “fastest way to reduce near-term warming” and keep 1.5C “within reach”, according to a US and EU factsheet.
Will China’s plan be effective in curbing emissions?
The Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) wrote on WeChat that it believed “in the long term”, the plan will provide “a clear guiding framework” for methane reduction efforts.
It pointed to the role the plan could play in establishing a monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) system that could underpin a carbon pricing methodology for methane.
Dr Chen Meian, program director and senior analyst at iGDP, tells Carbon Brief that some of the “sector-specific targets mentioned in the methane plan can help China to reduce methane emissions” in coalbed methane and other areas.
However, she added, it is “difficult” to set hard targets for cutting emissions by specific amounts, due to challenges in data monitoring, “[which is why] China also listed the improvement of methane emissions MRV” as a key task.
Others are less convinced. The plan is “too ambiguous”, “descriptive” and lacking in quantitative targets, Refinitiv lead carbon analyst Yan Qin told Reuters.
Ember’s methane analyst Anatoli Smirnov told Climate Home that the “only real solution to reduce methane emissions is to close coal mines”. The outlet also quoted CREA’s Myllyvirta saying there is a lack of “political will and buy-in” to curb methane in China.
“I think China is trying to be realistic in target-setting [for its] coal sector emissions,” Chen tells Carbon Brief. She adds that China “used to set ambitious targets” for coalbed methane capture and utilisation in its five-year plans, but that it repeatedly missed them.
She added that it would be important for local governments to “set their own methane plans…tailored to local conditions” and to improve data monitoring.
What does this mean for global cooperation on methane?
A week after the plan was released, the US and Chinese climate envoys John Kerry and Xie Zhenhua issued a declaration on enhancing climate cooperation, known as the “Sunnylands statement”.
It included commitments to establish a working group that will look at several areas of cooperation, including methane emissions, and to create another working group to focus on “building on” their current national methane plans.
In addition, they commit to include “actions/targets” on methane reduction in their next climate pledges under the Paris Agreement, which will also cover other non-CO2 greenhouse gases. They will host, with the UAE, a summit on non-CO2 gases at COP28.
Without the plan’s public release, Li Shuo, director of the China climate hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute told Bloomberg, there “certainly wouldn’t have been further deals”.
However, differences in the sources of the US and China’s methane emissions could hamper cooperation. Dr Teng Fei, deputy director of the Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy at Tsinghua University, told China Dialogue that the main source of EU and US methane emissions is oil and gas, compared to coal mining for China.
Tackling coal mining methane emissions is harder and more costly than oil and gas. This could be why China has not signed up to the global methane pledge, which may be easier for the EU and US to meet, Teng added.
Watch, read, listen
COAL ADDICTION: Michael Davidson, assistant professor at the University of California, San Diego, explained in Foreign Affairs how “the need for energy security, the structure of China’s climate goals and…local interests” keeps China committed to coal, even though it “makes little financial sense”.
SOLAR DEBATE: In a video interview, Wall Street Journal reporter Phred Dvorak outlined how different countries are responding to dropping prices of Chinese solar panels in an effort to protect their own manufacturers.
EV RACE: Bloomberg published a podcast looking into how China became the dominant player in the electric vehicle industry, and what this could mean for the global economy.
GREEN BRI: A symposium summarised in Environmental Politics examined how environmental governance is practised in China’s belt and road initiative (BRI), with focus areas including China’s political mechanisms to “green” the BRI and the dynamics influencing the effectiveness of BRI renewable energy projects.
SUPPLY CHAIN RISKS? The Royal United Services Institute assessed the threat of China’s “near monopoly” of rare earth production and manufacturing of “net zero technologies”, finding that risks are “currently limited by low levels of manufacturing of these technologies in the UK”.
New science
Weather and Climate Extremes
A new study estimated that “compound” extreme weather events under a high-emissions scenario may become “10 times and 14 times more likely” through the mid-21st century and end of the century respectively. The study authors used the compound event of heavy precipitation and heatwaves in China in 2020 to identify the dynamic and thermodynamic factors contributing to the such events. They defined spatially compounding events as those occurring “when multiple connected locations are concurrently affected by the same or different hazards, thus inducing an aggregated impact”.
Global Change Biology
New research investigating recent trends in blooms of microalgal “red tides” and macroalgae in China found that microalgal blooms have been decreasing in frequency since 2003, while macroalgal blooms have generally been rising since 1999. It attributed the growth of macroalgae around China over the past 30 years to “eutrophication, climate change and grazing stress”, which it said indicated “a fundamental change in coastal systems in the region”.
China Briefing is compiled by Anika Patel and edited by Wanyuan Song and Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org.
The post China Briefing 16 November: Sunnylands statement; China methane plan; Coal capacity payments appeared first on Carbon Brief.
China Briefing 16 November: Sunnylands statement; China methane plan; Coal capacity payments
Brazil’s environment minister says he is “very optimistic” that the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) – a new rainforest fund to channel private and public finance to developing nations – can meet a key $10 billion funding target this year, and is not at risk from his country’s elections next month.
The TFFF, launched by Brazil at COP30 in the Amazon last November and co-led by Norway, is intended as an alternative to traditional grant-based forest finance. The fund aims to raise $125bn in public and private capital, invest it in bond markets, and then pay countries that keep their forests standing from the annual returns. Donor contributions needed to get it going have tailed off after an initial burst.
Speaking to Climate Home News on the sidelines of Climate Week in New York, Brazilian environment minister João Paulo Capobianco pointed out that in less than a year since its official launch, the TFFF has already secured $7.3bn from governments.
“How many other initiatives can say that?” he asked. “Of course, if you have $7 billion, it’s easier for more countries to consider their own contribution. And not just countries – non-governmental organisations also. We are expecting even more support.”
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As El Niño intensifies, we should be investing more in the world’s farmers
Finance to help agriculture adapt to a hotter world and more extreme weather is vital for food security – but new data shows it’s on a downward trend -
COP31 attendees told not to interfere in Türkiye’s “internal affairs”
Amnesty International says the provision in the hosting agreement could have a “chilling effect” on free expression in Antalya -
Threatened by rising seas, small islands secure right to keep their statehood
Efforts to protect marine ecosystems and coastal communities have risen up the political agenda at the UN General Assembly in New York
As its initial target, the TFFF aims to raise $10bn in seed capital from governments by the end of 2026, and still needs to fill a gap of $2.7bn. Its backers say that for each dollar in public funding, they can secure $4 from the private sector. Critics say the $10bn goal barely covers the fund’s expenses and would not allow it to make any significant payments to forest countries.
Because setting up its financial architecture, raising the starting capital and making the first investments will take time, experts say the TFFF is unlikely to generate any payments for developing countries before 2028.
Seeking new pledges
Capobianco told Climate Home News that Brazil is still in talks with potential new contributors to the fund, among them China, Korea and Japan, and said he hoped to see more pledges announced at the upcoming biodiversity and climate COPs in October and November. The Netherlands is expected to up its first small contribution and Canada may also come in, according to other sources close to the TFFF.
Because the fund was not created as part of the UN climate talks and is hosted by the World Bank, developing countries can contribute without taking on wider donor responsibilities for climate finance. Brazil and Indonesia – both large emerging rainforest nations – have each pledged $1bn to the TFFF.
Earlier in September, the UK became the latest country to pledge funding – promising a loan of £400 million (about $540 million). Capobianco welcomed the contribution and noted that Britain has also said it will keep “under review” the possibility of putting in more.
Currently the largest donor is Norway, which announced a $3bn pledge last year at COP30 in Belém. However, that pledge came with conditions, among them that the fund must reach $10bn in sponsor capital by 2026, and that Norway’s contribution can’t make up more than 20% of that total. Over the longer term, this means the fund must raise $15bn from governments to unlock Norway’s full investment.
Comment: UK’s budget juggling trick with rainforest loan for bus-fare cap needs transparency
Speaking at a forest finance event in New York, Norway’s environment minister Sigrun Aasland said the country’s pledge was made not “only out of solidarity but because of shared interests”, adding that protecting rainforests is critical for climate and biodiversity goals as well as for national security.
“Tropical deforestation matters to people in the Amazon and in the Congo. But let’s not forget that it also matters to global food production and to the cost of living in Oslo or in London,” she said.
At the event, Guyana’s minister of natural resources Vickram Bharrat said the TFFF is “one in a menu of options” to finance forest protection in developing countries. He added that to boost its capital “maybe we should put some amount of pressure on oil companies to contribute to the fund”.
Upcoming election “not a risk”
Brazil, which has been pivotal to getting the fund off the ground, is now heading into a national election that could see the country swing back to an anti-climate stance if right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro beats current left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Capobianco, however, said the election result does not pose a risk to the TFFF.
“It’s a global initiative, not a Brazilian initiative. We proposed the first idea, but nowadays it’s a global initiative,” he said. “We believe the investor countries and the tropical countries together have the possibility to continue this process.”
In Brazil, the first round of voting is scheduled for Sunday, October 4. If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes, a run-off ballot will take place on October 25.
COP30 roadmap to end deforestation will invite countries to draft domestic plans
In July, the TFFF board adopted a charter, which outlines the instrument’s objectives and values, including that 20% of the payments made to tropical countries will go directly to Indigenous people and local communities.
The charter also says the TFFF board may comprise up to 12 member countries during the initial phase. Currently, seven seats are filled by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Germany, Brazil, France, the Netherlands, Norway and Indonesia.
The board has also formally incorporated the Tropical Forest Investment Fund (TFIF) – the TFFF’s investment arm that will trade bonds in financial markets – hosted in Luxembourg.
The post Brazil confident new rainforest fund will reach $10bn donor milestone appeared first on Climate Home News.
Brazil confident new rainforest fund will reach $10bn donor milestone
Patrick Schröder is a senior research fellow at Chatham House’s Environment and Society Centre.
A climate summit serious about implementation cannot afford to leave major emissions reductions off the table. Yet, that is the risk COP31 faces unless it makes reducing raw material use central to the way countries decarbonise their economies.
On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York last week, COP31 host Türkiye laid out proposals to accelerate emissions cuts in the next decade. Its plans include global goals to increase the share of recycled products in material use to at least 15% (up from 6.9% in 2025) and halve waste generation by 2035.
COP31 offers an opportunity to connect efforts to improve material circularity with stronger national climate commitments and mitigation pathways. But these targets could be a lot more ambitious.
The case for circularity
The Paris Agreement cannot be delivered through cleaner electricity alone. We must also reduce the emissions that are embedded in the way we extract resources, manufacture products, build infrastructure and dispose of waste.
Circularity principles are pivotal to credible mitigation pathways: designing technologies and products to last, repairing and reusing them, and reducing demand for virgin resources.
The scale of the opportunity is striking. A recent European Environment Agency review found that adopting such principles could deliver average global emissions reductions potential of 52% in the waste sector against a business-as-usual scenario, 48% in construction and buildings, 28% in transport and mobility, 26% in industry and 24% in agriculture.
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The Canadian city betting on recycling rare earths for the energy transition
As countries scramble to secure critical minerals, Kingston’s burgeoning clean tech ecosystem is attracting startups to create circular supply chains and reduce reliance on China
These figures make a compelling case for raising circularity ambitions across the economy, offering the promise of far more than better recycling bins.
In fact, recycling minerals used in cleantech equipment, for example, illustrate the extent of the emissions savings available. The carbon footprint of minerals and metals recovered from secondary sources is up to 80% lower than those produced from new mining and processing, according to the International Energy Agency.
A major EU-funded project estimates that recovered materials could substitute up to 56% of Europe’s primary critical raw material requirements by 2050, provided they achieve the necessary quality. The main takeaway goes beyond Europe: yesterday’s products can become tomorrow’s strategic resources while mitigating climate change.
In this light, a target to increase the share of recovered material use to 15% isn’t enough.
The evidence-based Circularity Gap Report found a 17% target by 2032 is possible and could unlock additional emissions reductions amounting to several gigatonnes of CO2.
Reducing material demand
A higher circularity metric is only part of the answer, however. An economy can increase its recycling rate at the same time as extracting more primary materials if total material demand keeps growing.
The tougher issue governments need to address is identifying what reductions in primary material use are needed.
The Circularity Gap Report uses an indicative benchmark of eight tonnes of virgin materials consumed per person annually. This is already being translated into policy: Germany’s 2024 circular economy strategy aims to reduce primary resource consumption, with the German Federal Environment Agency identifying six to eight tonnes per person as an ambitious target.
Reducing primary material demand will require a closer integration of energy and resource policies. Efficient EVs charged with solar power can complement better public transport and walkable cities, while batteries designed to be repaired and reused for stationary energy storage before being recycled will reduce the materials footprint of transport and clean energy services.
Coordinated infrastructure development and urban planning can prevent unnecessary overbuild, while renovating existing building stock reduces demand for new steel, cement and aluminium, which are emissions-intensive to produce. Connecting industrial waste heat to district heating networks can further reduce energy demand and emissions.
What governments should agree at COP31
COP31 can translate this approach into three concrete commitments.
First, governments should agree a stronger circularity ambition, supported by material-footprint indicators and milestones. The presidency should seek recognition of these priorities in negotiated outcomes, alongside concrete delivery partnerships under its COP31 Action Agenda.
Second, countries should include quantified circular economy measures in their updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and implementation plans. Such measures should include reuse, material efficiency and circularity targets, as well as transparent estimates of emissions savings that avoid double counting across sectors. By the end of 2025, countries had developed 101 national circular economy roadmaps and action plans, yet these often remained disconnected from their NDCs.
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Third, climate finance should support the delivery of circular solutions such as material recovery at scale, investments into circular critical mineral value chains beyond mining, developing a circular plastics economy, and designing buildings and cities that support material reuse. Developing countries need technology, affordable finance and support to deliver these ambitions, including for the informal workers whose livelihoods depend on recovering and recycling materials.
The test for COP31 is to reach an agreement that can start the transformation of our production and consumption systems and how they are financed.
A headline circularity target will achieve little without policies that address absolute resource demand and deliver measurable emissions cuts. But COP31 offers an opportunity to make circularity a central element of climate policy, with targets strong enough to matter and institutions equipped to deliver them.
The post COP31 must aim higher to cut emissions from the use of materials appeared first on Climate Home News.
COP31 must aim higher to cut emissions from the use of materials
An exceptional El Niño is building. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says it has intensified to very strong levels and is likely to last at least through February 2027. If its current trajectory holds, it could become stronger than anything seen since WMO monitoring began four decades ago.
That is bad news for agriculture. El Niño – a naturally occurring weather phenomenon – can scramble rainfall patterns across the world, bringing drought to some regions and floods to others. And this time it is unfolding against the backdrop of a significantly hotter climate, with farmers already contending with unreliable growing seasons, extreme heat and less predictable rainfall because of global warming.
El Niño expected to bring next record-hot year as soon as 2027
We are seeing the consequences already. In Sri Lanka, drought linked to El Niño has dried wells and reservoirs and cut into crops and farmer incomes. Indonesia is experiencing its worst wildfire season in 11 years, with prolonged drought and extreme heat exacerbated by El Niño. And in Peru, authorities are preparing for the opposite extreme: intense rains, flooding and landslides which the national civil-defence agency says could affect around 1.2 million people.
These impacts will multiply as El Niño intensifies.
And yet, just as the risks to food production are rising, the money available to help farmers withstand them is shrinking.
10% funding decline in 2024
A forthcoming analysis from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) shows that climate-related development finance for agrifood systems is moving in the wrong direction. In 2024, the latest year for which data is available, it fell by 10 percent compared with a 2 percent overall decline. The sectors that put food on our tables — crops, livestock, forestry and fisheries — received just 5 percent.
Yet this is precisely the moment when climate investment in agriculture needs to grow, not shrink. It can help communities adapt, build resilience and protect food security, while unlocking larger flows of public and private finance. Agriculture feeds us, supports the livelihoods of well over a billion people, and is often the first sector hit by drought, floods and extreme heat. Cutting that investment now is a false economy.
One failed harvest can plant the seed for the next crisis, forcing farmers to eat the seed they have saved for planting, sell livestock or tools, or take on debt. It can also deepen food insecurity, disrupt supply chains and drive up prices, showing up months later in supermarket aisles far away.
The Central American Dry Corridor, stretching through much of the region, shows both how exposed farmers are, and what investment can do. Based on an analysis of 41 years of satellite observations, FAO finds that some crop and pasture areas there face more than a 50 percent chance of agricultural drought over the coming months.
About half of Central America’s 1.9 million producers of maize, beans and other basic grains live in the Dry Corridor. Many grow food both for sale and for their own families. When a harvest fails, they lose both income and dinner.
El Salvador project conserves water and soil
In El Salvador, which lies within the Dry Corridor, more than 50,000 farmers have adopted practices to better withstand drought and increasingly unreliable rainfall through RECLIMA, a project financed by the Green Climate Fund and implemented by FAO in partnership with the government of El Salvador. It has substantial national co-financing, including from the country’s Environmental Investment Fund.
El Niño can intensify El Salvador’s annual mid-season dry spell, known as the canícula, turning it into a longer, harsher drought just as maize needs water most.
For María Cristina Corvera de López, a second-generation farmer in rural Nahualapa, adapting means changing how every drop of rain is captured and used. She plants trees alongside her crops to provide shade and minimise evaporation and uses simple irrigation channels and a homemade drip system to conserve water. Instead of burning stalks, leaves and husks after harvest, as generations before her did, she turns them into mulch to hold moisture in the soil.
“The effects of climate change are a constant challenge,” she says. But the new techniques have made her farm more resilient to El Niño as well. Where she once harvested about 50 bags of maize per acre, she now gets around 80, even during droughts. It’s enough to feed her family and sell the surplus.
Managing risk now cuts future costs
Together, these adaptations can mean the difference between losing a crop and getting through a dry season with enough food, seed and income to plant again. They are also the result of climate finance invested before disaster strikes.
RECLIMA shows what that kind of adaptation investment can buy. Adaptation accounted for 45 percent of climate-related development finance to agrifood systems in 2024, and multilateral development banks are directing more agricultural finance towards resilience. That shift reflects a growing recognition that adaptation is a form of risk management, not just a development cost.
We need much more of it. The same investments that help farmers withstand El Niño also enable them to adapt to a hotter, more unpredictable future. Cutting investment in the people who produce our food just as climate risks intensify does not save money. It simply pushes a much larger bill into the next harvest, the next food crisis, and the next El Niño.
The post As El Niño intensifies, we should be investing more in the world’s farmers appeared first on Climate Home News.
As El Niño intensifies, we should be investing more in the world’s farmers
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